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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Thu, 11 Jun 2026 18:13:35 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 111813
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jun 11 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize:
Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central
America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The
combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper
low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a
tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant
deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential
for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat.
Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern section
of the Yucatan Peninsula and over eastern Belize. The heaviest
rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period,
primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican
state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is
possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as
well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local
meteorological agencies for further guidance.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along 20W from 02N to
12N, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm west of the wave from 07N to 10N.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has is axis near 47.5W from 05N
to 15N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Only isolated showers are
seen within 60 nm either side of the axis from 05N to 08N.
A tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean, with its axis
near 62W. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east of the wave
from 10N to 12N, and within 60 nm west of the wave from 10N to 11N
to 12.5N. Isolated, small showers and thunderstorms are ahead of
the wave from 13N to 14N between 63W and 65W.
Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 67W,
moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is
occurring at the present time with this wave.
A tropical wave was added to the 12Z analysis over the Yucatan
Peninsula along a position from 21.5N87W to 18N90W and to 13N92W
as suggested to some extent in long-term satellite imagery and
mildly in model guidance. This feature is one of the factors
contributing to the heavy rain event described above under the
Special Features section. Upper-level divergence from an upper-level
low that is west of the Yucatan Peninsula is helping to sustain
clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over
the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. Similar
convection is noted from from 21.5N to 24N between the western tip
of Cuba and 89W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only
marginally conducive for development before the system moves inland
over eastern Mexico late Sat or on Sun.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near
15N17W and extends southwestward to 08N21W and to 05N30W, where
it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N35W to 04N42W and to 05N40W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the trough
between 20W-23W, also within 60 nm north of the trough between
24W-26W, between 27W-30W and also between 34W-38W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is also seen from 04N and
09N between 11W-18W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please see the Tropical Waves sections for information on
convection north of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Weak Atlantic ridging stretches westward from the western
Atlantic to just inland the northern Gulf coast as an upper-level
low is identified to be over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Recent
Ascat satellite data passes indicate mostly gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds across the basin, except for fresh
southeast winds over the central portions. Seas are in the 4 to 6
ft range between the northwest Yucatan Peninsula and the Texas
coast, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, weak ridging will extend from the western
Atlantic across the north-central Gulf into early next week.
Farther south, weak low pressure will develop over southern Mexico
and northern Central America today, then move into the the Bay of
Campeche this evening. The low pressure will then move
northwestward toward the coast of Tamaulipas state in northeast
Mexico through Sat night. The gradient between the low pressure
and the high pressure over the northeast Gulf will support a plume
of fresh to strong southeast winds and moderate to rough seas
from the northwest Yucatan peninsula to the coast of Texas through
at least Sat night. The low pressure will be accompanied by
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the western Gulf. Winds
and seas will diminish early next week after the low pressure
moves inland and weakens.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Special Feature section regarding the potential for
heavy rainfall and localized flooding in the Yucatan peninsula
and in northern Belize into Sat.
The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressure in the western Caribbean is generally
allowing for fresh to strong southeast winds to exist in the
northwestern part of the sea. Seas with these winds are 6 to 9 ft
in southeast swell. The gradient between the same high pressure
and relatively lower pressure in northern Colombia is maintaining
fresh to strong trades in the south-central section of the basin
along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Latest scatterometer satellite data
passes indicate mostly gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas
are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.
Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are
just inland and along the coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula and
Belize. This activity is to the east of a tropical wave that is over
the Yucatan Peninsula.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1016 mb low is analyzed near 26N61W, with a trough extending
south-southwestward to 23N63W and to 22N70W. Another trough
extends from the low to 29N60W while a stationary front is
anaylzed from 29N60W to 29N61W, where it transitions to a cold
front to northeast of the area at 31N47W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen from 25N to 28N between 53W and 58W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere north of 22N
between 50W and 65W. Farther north, a surface ridge extends from
1025 mb high pressure center that is northeast of Bermuda near
35N58W west-southwestward to across northern Florida. Farther east,
another surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center
near the Azores Islands southwestward to 31N31W and continues to
near 25N55W. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes reveal light
to gentle winds west of and along the ridge axis. Seas are 4 to 5 ft
over these waters. The scatterometer satellite data passes reveal
mostly moderate to fresh northeast winds south of the ridge axis,
where seas are 6 to 7 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned 1016 mb low
centered near 26N61W will dissipate as it moves northeast of the
area through this evening. A ridge will extend westward along
roughly 29N and remain in place through early next week. This
pattern will support gentle to moderate breezes across the basin,
except moderate to fresh winds off Hispaniola starting Fri night.
$$
Aguirre
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Thu, 11 Jun 2026 18:13:35 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 111813
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jun 11 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize:
Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central
America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The
combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper
low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a
tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant
deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential
for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat.
Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern section
of the Yucatan Peninsula and over eastern Belize. The heaviest
rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period,
primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican
state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is
possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as
well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local
meteorological agencies for further guidance.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along 20W from 02N to
12N, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm west of the wave from 07N to 10N.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has is axis near 47.5W from 05N
to 15N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Only isolated showers are
seen within 60 nm either side of the axis from 05N to 08N.
A tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean, with its axis
near 62W. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east of the wave
from 10N to 12N, and within 60 nm west of the wave from 10N to 11N
to 12.5N. Isolated, small showers and thunderstorms are ahead of
the wave from 13N to 14N between 63W and 65W.
Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 67W,
moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is
occurring at the present time with this wave.
A tropical wave was added to the 12Z analysis over the Yucatan
Peninsula along a position from 21.5N87W to 18N90W and to 13N92W
as suggested to some extent in long-term satellite imagery and
mildly in model guidance. This feature is one of the factors
contributing to the heavy rain event described above under the
Special Features section. Upper-level divergence from an upper-level
low that is west of the Yucatan Peninsula is helping to sustain
clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over
the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. Similar
convection is noted from from 21.5N to 24N between the western tip
of Cuba and 89W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only
marginally conducive for development before the system moves inland
over eastern Mexico late Sat or on Sun.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near
15N17W and extends southwestward to 08N21W and to 05N30W, where
it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N35W to 04N42W and to 05N40W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the trough
between 20W-23W, also within 60 nm north of the trough between
24W-26W, between 27W-30W and also between 34W-38W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is also seen from 04N and
09N between 11W-18W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please see the Tropical Waves sections for information on
convection north of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Weak Atlantic ridging stretches westward from the western
Atlantic to just inland the northern Gulf coast as an upper-level
low is identified to be over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Recent
Ascat satellite data passes indicate mostly gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds across the basin, except for fresh
southeast winds over the central portions. Seas are in the 4 to 6
ft range between the northwest Yucatan Peninsula and the Texas
coast, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, weak ridging will extend from the western
Atlantic across the north-central Gulf into early next week.
Farther south, weak low pressure will develop over southern Mexico
and northern Central America today, then move into the the Bay of
Campeche this evening. The low pressure will then move
northwestward toward the coast of Tamaulipas state in northeast
Mexico through Sat night. The gradient between the low pressure
and the high pressure over the northeast Gulf will support a plume
of fresh to strong southeast winds and moderate to rough seas
from the northwest Yucatan peninsula to the coast of Texas through
at least Sat night. The low pressure will be accompanied by
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the western Gulf. Winds
and seas will diminish early next week after the low pressure
moves inland and weakens.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Special Feature section regarding the potential for
heavy rainfall and localized flooding in the Yucatan peninsula
and in northern Belize into Sat.
The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressure in the western Caribbean is generally
allowing for fresh to strong southeast winds to exist in the
northwestern part of the sea. Seas with these winds are 6 to 9 ft
in southeast swell. The gradient between the same high pressure
and relatively lower pressure in northern Colombia is maintaining
fresh to strong trades in the south-central section of the basin
along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Latest scatterometer satellite data
passes indicate mostly gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas
are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.
Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are
just inland and along the coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula and
Belize. This activity is to the east of a tropical wave that is over
the Yucatan Peninsula.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1016 mb low is analyzed near 26N61W, with a trough extending
south-southwestward to 23N63W and to 22N70W. Another trough
extends from the low to 29N60W while a stationary front is
anaylzed from 29N60W to 29N61W, where it transitions to a cold
front to northeast of the area at 31N47W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen from 25N to 28N between 53W and 58W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere north of 22N
between 50W and 65W. Farther north, a surface ridge extends from
1025 mb high pressure center that is northeast of Bermuda near
35N58W west-southwestward to across northern Florida. Farther east,
another surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center
near the Azores Islands southwestward to 31N31W and continues to
near 25N55W. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes reveal light
to gentle winds west of and along the ridge axis. Seas are 4 to 5 ft
over these waters. The scatterometer satellite data passes reveal
mostly moderate to fresh northeast winds south of the ridge axis,
where seas are 6 to 7 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned 1016 mb low
centered near 26N61W will dissipate as it moves northeast of the
area through this evening. A ridge will extend westward along
roughly 29N and remain in place through early next week. This
pattern will support gentle to moderate breezes across the basin,
except moderate to fresh winds off Hispaniola starting Fri night.
$$
Aguirre
Active Tropical Systems
- Sat, 13 Jun 2026 05:25:54 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 11 Jun 2026 19:25:53 GMT - Thu, 11 Jun 2026 17:25:54 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 111725
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Bay of Campeche:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the Bay of
Campeche on Friday from a westward-moving tropical wave currently
located over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for
development before the system moves inland over eastern Mexico late
Saturday or Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Thu, 11 Jun 2026 13:35:48 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 111335
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0935 AM EDT THU 11 JUNE 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z JUNE 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-011
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf