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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Mon, 05 Oct 2026 10:22:48 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 051022
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1010 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 57W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 21N
between 49W and 62W.
A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along
84W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers
associated with the wave are over the NW and SW Caribbean.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N34W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 09N54W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed from 08N to 19N between 14W and 30W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends from southern Alabama to SE Louisiana
to southern Texas coastal waters. A pre-frontal trough extends
from northern Florida to SE Louisiana coastal waters to a 1011 mb
low offshore Tampico, which is generating scattered heavy showers
and tstms over the Bay of Campeche and NE Mexico offshores.
Similar shower activity is over the NE Gulf and along the NW Gulf
coastal waters. Fresh to near gale-force NE winds are behind the
front over the NW Gulf coastal waters while moderate or weaker
winds are elsewhere over the cental and SE Gulf. Recent altimeter
and buoy data show 2 to 5 ft seas basin wide, likely higher in the
areas of strong convection.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow the
trough along the E Mexican offshores through Tue. Weak surface
ridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift E through late Tue
ahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf today through Wed
before it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and
building seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, broad
low pressure may develop over the far southwest Gulf Tue night
into Wed. Although environmental conditions are expected to be
only marginally conducive, gradual development of this system is
possible and a tropical depression could form by the second half
of this week while it initially drifts eastward before turning
northward. Regardless of development, fresh to locally strong
winds and rough seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed
through Sat night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
An inverted trough over the central Caribbean continue to support
scattered showers and isolated tstms in the Windward Passage, the
lee side of E Cuba adjacent waters and the SW basin. Surface high
pressure over the central subtropical Atlantic continue to support
moderate to fresh trades over the central Caribbean, and moderate
or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas with these winds are moderate to 7
ft while slight to moderate seas are elsewhere.
For the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and
central Caribbean through Tue morning, except offshore Colombia
and the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh winds will likely pulse to
strong speeds at night through tonight. Afterward, a cold front
will move across the waters N of the region, further weakening the
pressure gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds
across the basin through Thu. High pressure is forecast to develop
to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through
Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the easterly
winds over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Scattered showers and isolated tstms prevail over the southern
Bahamas and adjacent waters, including the Great Bahama Bank.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is dominated by
surface ridging anchored by high pressure near the Azores, which
is supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas. Otherwise, the remnants of a front are analyzed as a surface
trough that extends from 31N32W to 27N39W to 29N44W. Scattered
heavy showers and tstms are within 150 nm ahead of the trough.
For the forecast west of 55W, weak ridging over the western
Atlantic across Bermuda will continue to shift eastward through
today ahead of a cold front that will stall from Bermuda to NE
Florida Tue night into Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough
seas will follow the front, but remain off NE Florida through Wed
night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist
elsewhere through Fri. Otherwise, by Fri evening, high pressure
developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase
easterly winds S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds.
$$
Ramos
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Mon, 05 Oct 2026 10:22:48 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 051022
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1010 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 57W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 21N
between 49W and 62W.
A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along
84W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers
associated with the wave are over the NW and SW Caribbean.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N34W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 09N54W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed from 08N to 19N between 14W and 30W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends from southern Alabama to SE Louisiana
to southern Texas coastal waters. A pre-frontal trough extends
from northern Florida to SE Louisiana coastal waters to a 1011 mb
low offshore Tampico, which is generating scattered heavy showers
and tstms over the Bay of Campeche and NE Mexico offshores.
Similar shower activity is over the NE Gulf and along the NW Gulf
coastal waters. Fresh to near gale-force NE winds are behind the
front over the NW Gulf coastal waters while moderate or weaker
winds are elsewhere over the cental and SE Gulf. Recent altimeter
and buoy data show 2 to 5 ft seas basin wide, likely higher in the
areas of strong convection.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow the
trough along the E Mexican offshores through Tue. Weak surface
ridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift E through late Tue
ahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf today through Wed
before it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and
building seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, broad
low pressure may develop over the far southwest Gulf Tue night
into Wed. Although environmental conditions are expected to be
only marginally conducive, gradual development of this system is
possible and a tropical depression could form by the second half
of this week while it initially drifts eastward before turning
northward. Regardless of development, fresh to locally strong
winds and rough seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed
through Sat night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
An inverted trough over the central Caribbean continue to support
scattered showers and isolated tstms in the Windward Passage, the
lee side of E Cuba adjacent waters and the SW basin. Surface high
pressure over the central subtropical Atlantic continue to support
moderate to fresh trades over the central Caribbean, and moderate
or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas with these winds are moderate to 7
ft while slight to moderate seas are elsewhere.
For the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and
central Caribbean through Tue morning, except offshore Colombia
and the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh winds will likely pulse to
strong speeds at night through tonight. Afterward, a cold front
will move across the waters N of the region, further weakening the
pressure gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds
across the basin through Thu. High pressure is forecast to develop
to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through
Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the easterly
winds over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Scattered showers and isolated tstms prevail over the southern
Bahamas and adjacent waters, including the Great Bahama Bank.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is dominated by
surface ridging anchored by high pressure near the Azores, which
is supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas. Otherwise, the remnants of a front are analyzed as a surface
trough that extends from 31N32W to 27N39W to 29N44W. Scattered
heavy showers and tstms are within 150 nm ahead of the trough.
For the forecast west of 55W, weak ridging over the western
Atlantic across Bermuda will continue to shift eastward through
today ahead of a cold front that will stall from Bermuda to NE
Florida Tue night into Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough
seas will follow the front, but remain off NE Florida through Wed
night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist
elsewhere through Fri. Otherwise, by Fri evening, high pressure
developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase
easterly winds S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds.
$$
Ramos
Active Tropical Systems
- Tue, 06 Oct 2026 23:38:30 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 05 Oct 2026 15:50:10 GMT - Mon, 05 Oct 2026 11:38:30 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
015
ABNT20 KNHC 051138
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Southwestern Gulf of America:
A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although
environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual
development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This
system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before
it turns northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Mon, 05 Oct 2026 15:38:31 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 051538
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1140 AM EDT MON 05 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-127
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST GULF OF AMERICA)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. 07/0000Z
B. NOAA9 01BBA SURV
C. 06/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION INTO THE SUSPECT AREA NEAR
21.7N 93.7W FOR 07/1400Z.
B. NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND SUSPECT AREA
FOR 08/0000Z, DEPARTING KLAL 07/1730Z.
C. POSSIBLE NOAA 43 P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO THE
SUSPECT AREA FOR 07/1800Z AND 08/0600Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT
07/1400Z AND 08/0200Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf