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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Tue, 16 Jun 2026 10:17:15 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 161016
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jun 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Northwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL90): A trough of low
pressure extending across coastal portions of NE Mexico, across
the Texas/Mexico border and into south Texas, continues to
produce a large area of strong showers and thunderstorms from NE
Mexico to SW Louisiana. This system is expected to move north-
northeastward during the next few days, and could re-emerge over
the northwestern Gulf of America today through Wed. Environmental
conditions there are expected to be marginally conducive for the
formation of a short- lived tropical storm later today or on Wed.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across
southern and eastern Texas, southern portions of Louisiana and
Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over
the next several days, which could produce widespread, life-
threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and
coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the
northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings
could be required later today. Additional information on this
system can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office or the NHC Key Messages.
This area has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in
the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers ABNT20 KNHC/TWOAT or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for further details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, south of 17N,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed from 04N to 12N between 20W and
32W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W-47W, south of 17N,
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 04.5N to 09.5N and between 40W and 54W.
A Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 16N, moving
westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 11N to 13.5N between 58W and 66W.
Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
found south of 14N and between 74W and 82W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14.5N17W and continues southwestward to 05.5N34W.
The ITCZ extends from 05.5N34W to 05.5N45W and then from 05.5N48W
to 06N57W. Convection is described in the TROPICAL WAVES section.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the potential for tropical cyclone formation in the NW Gulf of
America.
Abundant low level moisture continues to stream northward across
the western Gulf and is converging on the easter side of a trough
of low pressure extending from eastern Mexico into south Texas.
Favorable upper level conditions aloft continue to support
numerous large clusters of strong convection across coastal
sections and the near shore waters from NE Mexico to SW Louisiana.
The remainder of the basin is under the western extent of the
Atlantic subtropical ridge extending across south Florida and into
the eastern Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh
SE winds and moderate seas to 6 ft, west of 90W and off northern
Yucatan. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.
For the forecast, the low pressure across NE Mexico and S Texas is
expected to move slowly NE during the next couple of days, and
along the Texas coast, and possibly re-emerge over the NW Gulf
today or Wed. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive
for the formation of a short- lived tropical storm as this occurs.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected over the NW
Gulf Tue through Thu as this systems moves through the area.
Otherwise, a tightening pressure gradient over the basin will
sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf Tue
night through late Thu night, and moderate to fresh winds over the
eastern Gulf. Winds will begin to diminish Fri as high pressure
settles in over the eastern Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered moderate convection continues early this morning across
eastern Cuba, the Windward Passage and into western Haiti, while a
few showers are across the Cayman Islands. The pressure gradient
between the subtropical Atlantic ridge over the central Atlantic
and lower pressures in northern South America is forcing fresh to
strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the central
Caribbean, south of 17N. The strongest winds and highest seas are
noted off Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and
moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will generally
remain in place into this weekend. The pressure gradient across
the region will sustain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-
central basin through the forecast period, with highest winds and
seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to
strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly
through Sat, pulsing to near gale-force Wed night and Thu night.
Gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern
Caribbean will become SE at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu
night, then will diminish through the weekend.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic,
extending from 1022 mb high pressure southeast of the Azores,
southwestward into the central Atlantic and then westward along
26N and across south Florida. This pattern is supporting fresh to
locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of
23N and between 65W and 75W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and
moderate seas are occurring north of 28N and west of 67W.
South of the ridge, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and
seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 20N and west of 35W. In the far
east, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present
north of 18N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will change
little through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night. The related
pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade
winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing slightly Fri night
through Sat. Moderate to fresh SW winds offshore of northeast
Florida to near 67W are occurring ahead of a surface trough.
These winds will expand eastward to near 65W through Wed, as a
weak frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. The front
is expected to move offshore early Sat and stall offshore
northeast Florida to Bermuda by Sun. Expect fresh to strong winds
each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
$$
Stripling
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Tue, 16 Jun 2026 10:17:15 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 161016
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jun 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Northwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL90): A trough of low
pressure extending across coastal portions of NE Mexico, across
the Texas/Mexico border and into south Texas, continues to
produce a large area of strong showers and thunderstorms from NE
Mexico to SW Louisiana. This system is expected to move north-
northeastward during the next few days, and could re-emerge over
the northwestern Gulf of America today through Wed. Environmental
conditions there are expected to be marginally conducive for the
formation of a short- lived tropical storm later today or on Wed.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across
southern and eastern Texas, southern portions of Louisiana and
Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over
the next several days, which could produce widespread, life-
threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and
coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the
northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings
could be required later today. Additional information on this
system can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office or the NHC Key Messages.
This area has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in
the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers ABNT20 KNHC/TWOAT or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for further details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, south of 17N,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed from 04N to 12N between 20W and
32W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W-47W, south of 17N,
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 04.5N to 09.5N and between 40W and 54W.
A Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 16N, moving
westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 11N to 13.5N between 58W and 66W.
Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
found south of 14N and between 74W and 82W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14.5N17W and continues southwestward to 05.5N34W.
The ITCZ extends from 05.5N34W to 05.5N45W and then from 05.5N48W
to 06N57W. Convection is described in the TROPICAL WAVES section.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the potential for tropical cyclone formation in the NW Gulf of
America.
Abundant low level moisture continues to stream northward across
the western Gulf and is converging on the easter side of a trough
of low pressure extending from eastern Mexico into south Texas.
Favorable upper level conditions aloft continue to support
numerous large clusters of strong convection across coastal
sections and the near shore waters from NE Mexico to SW Louisiana.
The remainder of the basin is under the western extent of the
Atlantic subtropical ridge extending across south Florida and into
the eastern Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh
SE winds and moderate seas to 6 ft, west of 90W and off northern
Yucatan. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.
For the forecast, the low pressure across NE Mexico and S Texas is
expected to move slowly NE during the next couple of days, and
along the Texas coast, and possibly re-emerge over the NW Gulf
today or Wed. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive
for the formation of a short- lived tropical storm as this occurs.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected over the NW
Gulf Tue through Thu as this systems moves through the area.
Otherwise, a tightening pressure gradient over the basin will
sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf Tue
night through late Thu night, and moderate to fresh winds over the
eastern Gulf. Winds will begin to diminish Fri as high pressure
settles in over the eastern Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered moderate convection continues early this morning across
eastern Cuba, the Windward Passage and into western Haiti, while a
few showers are across the Cayman Islands. The pressure gradient
between the subtropical Atlantic ridge over the central Atlantic
and lower pressures in northern South America is forcing fresh to
strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the central
Caribbean, south of 17N. The strongest winds and highest seas are
noted off Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and
moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will generally
remain in place into this weekend. The pressure gradient across
the region will sustain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-
central basin through the forecast period, with highest winds and
seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to
strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly
through Sat, pulsing to near gale-force Wed night and Thu night.
Gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern
Caribbean will become SE at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu
night, then will diminish through the weekend.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic,
extending from 1022 mb high pressure southeast of the Azores,
southwestward into the central Atlantic and then westward along
26N and across south Florida. This pattern is supporting fresh to
locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of
23N and between 65W and 75W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and
moderate seas are occurring north of 28N and west of 67W.
South of the ridge, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and
seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 20N and west of 35W. In the far
east, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present
north of 18N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will change
little through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night. The related
pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade
winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing slightly Fri night
through Sat. Moderate to fresh SW winds offshore of northeast
Florida to near 67W are occurring ahead of a surface trough.
These winds will expand eastward to near 65W through Wed, as a
weak frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. The front
is expected to move offshore early Sat and stall offshore
northeast Florida to Bermuda by Sun. Expect fresh to strong winds
each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
$$
Stripling
Active Tropical Systems
- Wed, 17 Jun 2026 23:42:12 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 16 Jun 2026 11:45:34 GMT - Tue, 16 Jun 2026 11:42:12 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 161142
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northwestern Gulf of America (AL90):
A broad area of low pressure located inland over south Texas is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The system is forecast to move northeastward along the Texas coast
and could emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America later
today or tonight. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical
storm late today or on Wednesday, especially if the system moves far
enough offshore.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern
and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should
prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days
which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and
river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible
along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required later today. Additional
information on this system can be found in products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Mon, 15 Jun 2026 16:13:01 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 151612
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 PM EDT MON 15 JUNE 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z JUNE 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-015
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 17/0600Z A. 17/1130,1730Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA SURVEY B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 17/0345Z C. 17/0930Z
D. 27.0N 97.0W D. 28.0N 96.0W
E. 17/0530Z TO 17/0930Z E. 17/1100Z TO 17/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. SYSTEM SURVEY G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A
THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION
INTO SUSPECT AREA FOR 17/1800Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM/KAL/RAR
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf