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DONATE2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Mon, 13 Oct 2025 21:06:03 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 132105
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Oct 14 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Lorenzo is centered near 15.2N 41.7W at 13/2100
UTC or 1030 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Max seas are 17 ft.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring
from 12N-17N between 38W-42W. A motion toward the northwest with
a gradual slowdown is expected through Tue, followed by a turn
to the north on Tue night. Little change in strength is forecast
during the next day or so, but some gradual intensification is
possible later in the week.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Lorenzo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A new tropical wave has emerged off of the coast of West Africa
along 17W, south of 18N. Scattered moderate and isolated
convection is noted from 06N-15N east of 20W.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 12N,
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
noted from 08N-11N between 25N-30N.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 18N,
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 11N-13N between 53W-55W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 12N17W and extends to 08N20W to 07N25W to 08N31W.
The ITCZ extends from 09N48W to 11N62W. Convection is described
above in the Tropical Wave section.
The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from coastal Nicaragua
near 12N84W to 10N76W over coastal Colombia. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 14N west of
80W in the SW Caribbean.
GULF OF AMERICA...
Other than a trough over the southwest Gulf, weak ridging
dominates the basin, supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds
and 1 to 3 ft seas. No significant shower or thunderstorm
activity is observed at this time.
For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the basin through the work week,
resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
over much of the Gulf. Winds are expected to increase to fresh
speeds over the eastern and central Gulf Thu night through Fri
night as the pressure gradient tightens some across the area. Winds
will veer to the SE and S toward the end of the week as high pressure
over the SE of the United States moves westward into the western
Atlantic.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A vigorous mid-latitude upper-level trough extends from central
Florida to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula. A plume of showers
and thunderstorms are active east of the front flowing from the
far southwest Caribbean off Costa Rica and western Panama toward
Cuba, Jamaica, and Haiti. A few showers and thunderstorms are
also active across the southern Windward Islands. High pressure
centered over the central Atlantic is supporting moderate E winds
across the eastern Caribbean where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Gentle
breezes are noted elsewhere with 1 to 3 ft seas.
For the forecast, a cold front will move across Cuba and the
northwest Caribbean Tue through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh
winds and moderate seas are expected in the wake of the front.
Unsettled weather conditions will persist along and ahead of the
frontal boundary. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will
support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
over much of the basin through the work week. Tropical Storm
Lorenzo will remain east of the area.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Lorenzo in the central Atlantic.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 240 nm east
of a cold front reaching from 30N73W to central Cuba. 1016 mb
high pressure is centered near 24N61W. Fresh to strong winds and
seas to 8 ft are near this cold front north of 30N. A few
showers are along a trough extending from 30N54W to 26N53W. Fresh
to strong NE winds and rough seas are evident along this trough
as well. Farther east, weak 1014 mb low pressure is near 28N36W,
and another 1016 high pressure area is near 24N33W. Strong winds
and rough seas extend within 270 nm of the center of Lorenzo.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and generally 4 to 6 ft seas
prevail across the basin.
For the forecast, the cold front will reach from 31N70W to
western Cuba by Tue morning, from near Bermuda to central Cuba by
Wed morning, and from 31N60W to eastern Cuba by Thu morning.
Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected on either side
of the front across the waters N of 27N by Tue night. These
marine conditions will shift eastward with the front through late
in the week.
$$
Christensen
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Mon, 13 Oct 2025 21:06:03 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 132105
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Oct 14 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Lorenzo is centered near 15.2N 41.7W at 13/2100
UTC or 1030 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Max seas are 17 ft.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring
from 12N-17N between 38W-42W. A motion toward the northwest with
a gradual slowdown is expected through Tue, followed by a turn
to the north on Tue night. Little change in strength is forecast
during the next day or so, but some gradual intensification is
possible later in the week.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Lorenzo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A new tropical wave has emerged off of the coast of West Africa
along 17W, south of 18N. Scattered moderate and isolated
convection is noted from 06N-15N east of 20W.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 12N,
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
noted from 08N-11N between 25N-30N.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 18N,
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 11N-13N between 53W-55W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 12N17W and extends to 08N20W to 07N25W to 08N31W.
The ITCZ extends from 09N48W to 11N62W. Convection is described
above in the Tropical Wave section.
The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from coastal Nicaragua
near 12N84W to 10N76W over coastal Colombia. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 14N west of
80W in the SW Caribbean.
GULF OF AMERICA...
Other than a trough over the southwest Gulf, weak ridging
dominates the basin, supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds
and 1 to 3 ft seas. No significant shower or thunderstorm
activity is observed at this time.
For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the basin through the work week,
resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
over much of the Gulf. Winds are expected to increase to fresh
speeds over the eastern and central Gulf Thu night through Fri
night as the pressure gradient tightens some across the area. Winds
will veer to the SE and S toward the end of the week as high pressure
over the SE of the United States moves westward into the western
Atlantic.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A vigorous mid-latitude upper-level trough extends from central
Florida to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula. A plume of showers
and thunderstorms are active east of the front flowing from the
far southwest Caribbean off Costa Rica and western Panama toward
Cuba, Jamaica, and Haiti. A few showers and thunderstorms are
also active across the southern Windward Islands. High pressure
centered over the central Atlantic is supporting moderate E winds
across the eastern Caribbean where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Gentle
breezes are noted elsewhere with 1 to 3 ft seas.
For the forecast, a cold front will move across Cuba and the
northwest Caribbean Tue through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh
winds and moderate seas are expected in the wake of the front.
Unsettled weather conditions will persist along and ahead of the
frontal boundary. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will
support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
over much of the basin through the work week. Tropical Storm
Lorenzo will remain east of the area.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Lorenzo in the central Atlantic.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 240 nm east
of a cold front reaching from 30N73W to central Cuba. 1016 mb
high pressure is centered near 24N61W. Fresh to strong winds and
seas to 8 ft are near this cold front north of 30N. A few
showers are along a trough extending from 30N54W to 26N53W. Fresh
to strong NE winds and rough seas are evident along this trough
as well. Farther east, weak 1014 mb low pressure is near 28N36W,
and another 1016 high pressure area is near 24N33W. Strong winds
and rough seas extend within 270 nm of the center of Lorenzo.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and generally 4 to 6 ft seas
prevail across the basin.
For the forecast, the cold front will reach from 31N70W to
western Cuba by Tue morning, from near Bermuda to central Cuba by
Wed morning, and from 31N60W to eastern Cuba by Thu morning.
Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected on either side
of the front across the waters N of 27N by Tue night. These
marine conditions will shift eastward with the front through late
in the week.
$$
Christensen
Active Tropical Systems
- Mon, 13 Oct 2025 21:22:28 +0000: Tropical Storm Lorenzo Graphics - NHC Atlantic
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 13 Oct 2025 20:37:27 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 13 Oct 2025 21:22:28 GMT - Mon, 13 Oct 2025 20:35:57 +0000: Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 3 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 13 2025001 WTNT42 KNHC 132035 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025 500 PM AST Mon Oct 13 2025 A mid- to upper-level low to the west of Lorenzo is producing strong west-southwesterly shear, causing the low-level center to be mostly exposed to the west of the main area of deep convection. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and a T3.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB. The scatterometer data is also the basis for the initial 34-kt wind radii, which shows the tropical-storm-force winds mostly limited to the eastern half of the storm. Lorenzo is moving northwestward at 10 kt, and that motion should continue for about another day. However, by late Tuesday, a turn to the north is forecast as a weakness develops in the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The storm is then expected to turn northeastward later in the week as a large-scale mid- to upper-level trough approaches from the west. Most of the models show this trough cutting off, causing Lorenzo to slow down and turn eastward or southeastward over the weekend. The NHC track forecast is generally similar to the previous one and on the right side of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with HCCA. Regardless of the details, Lorenzo is not expected to be near land during the next several days. The strong shear over Lorenzo is likely to let up during the next few days, but the models also show some dry air entraining into the circulation. In fact, some of the global models show Lorenzo remaining lopsided and even opening up into a trough. The NHC intensity forecast shows some strengthening, but this is of low confidence as there is some possibility that Lorenzo succumbs to the unfavorable environmental conditions. This prediction is a little lower than the previous one, but remains near the high end of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 15.2N 41.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 16.2N 43.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 17.8N 44.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 20.0N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 22.6N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 25.3N 41.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 28.2N 38.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 31.4N 31.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 30.1N 29.2W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
- Mon, 13 Oct 2025 20:35:25 +0000: Tropical Storm Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 13 2025000 FONT12 KNHC 132035 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025 2100 UTC MON OCT 13 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI - Mon, 13 Oct 2025 20:35:25 +0000: Tropical Storm Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 3 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 13 2025141 WTNT32 KNHC 132035 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025 500 PM AST Mon Oct 13 2025 ...LORENZO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 41.7W ABOUT 1180 MI...1895 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 41.7 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected through Tuesday, followed by a turn to the north Tuesday night. A northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but some gradual intensification is possible later in the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
- Mon, 13 Oct 2025 20:35:25 +0000: Summary for Tropical Storm Lorenzo (AT2/AL122025) - NHC Atlantic
...LORENZO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Oct 13 the center of Lorenzo was located near 15.2, -41.7 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Mon, 13 Oct 2025 13:45:22 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 131345
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT MON 13 OCTOBER 2025
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z OCTOBER 2025
TCPOD NUMBER.....25-135
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf