2026 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

000
WTNT45 KNHC 220256
TCDAT5
 
Subtropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102026
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026
 
Convection associated with Josephine has waned this evening. The 
latest satellite images show shallow to moderate convection in bands 
over the northern and western portions of the circulation. Despite 
its degraded satellite structure, partial scatterometer data show 
Josephine is still a powerful storm with a large radius of maximum 
wind and an asymmetric wind field. A band of 45-50 kt winds wraps 
around the northwest side of the system. Since the entire wind field 
was not sampled, the initial intensity is held at a possibly 
generous 55 kt for this advisory.
 
Recent satellite fixes indicate Josephine is now moving slowly
north-northeastward (015/5 kt). The storm is expected to accelerate
to the northeast and east-northeast tomorrow as an upper-level
trough amplifies over the Canadian Maritimes and the northeastern
United States. Then, the low should become caught in mid-latitude
westerlies and move eastward on Friday and into the weekend, with
the center passing to the south of Newfoundland late Friday and
Friday night. The track model guidance remains tightly clustered,
and the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, generally
falling between the corrected consensus (HCCA) and a simple average
of the GFS/ECMWF models (GFEX).
 
Josephine is unlikely to remain subtropical for long since the storm
will encounter much cooler waters and stronger shear over the next
12-24 hours. However, the global models favor some near-term
strengthening driven mostly by baroclinic processes and positive
interaction with the approaching trough. This forecast shows
Josephine becoming a hurricane-force, extratropical cyclone in 24 h,
though it could lose subtropical characteristics even sooner.
Gradual weakening is predicted beginning on Friday, and the updated
forecast shows Josephine becoming absorbed by 96 h within a larger,
extratropical low over the North Atlantic. Given the subtropical
nature of this storm, the NHC intensity forecast continues to favor
a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.
 
Since the coastal wind hazards with this system have been covered
for the last several days through non-tropical products issued by
local National Weather Service offices, these products will remain
in effect until the threat diminishes and the system moves farther
away from the U.S. coast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0300Z 37.7N  69.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
 12H  22/1200Z 38.8N  67.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
 24H  23/0000Z 40.3N  64.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  23/1200Z 42.2N  59.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  24/0000Z 43.5N  55.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  24/1200Z 44.1N  52.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  25/0000Z 44.1N  48.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
FONT15 KNHC 220255
PWSAT5
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102026               
0300 UTC THU OCT 22 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  25(27)  16(43)   X(43)   X(43)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   9( 9)  21(30)   4(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   3( 3)  29(32)   4(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)  22(22)   6(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X  15(15)  72(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)  17(17)   9(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   6( 6)  10(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  3  30(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
HYANNIS MA     34 88   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34 19   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34 34   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART

000
WTNT35 KNHC 220254
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102026
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026
 
...JOSEPHINE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE UNITED
STATES ON THURSDAY...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.7N 69.4W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Josephine 
was located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 69.4 West. The storm 
is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn 
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected 
tomorrow, followed by an eastward motion on Friday and into the 
weekend. On the forecast track, Josephine should move away from the 
United States and remain south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland 
during the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast while Josephine remains a 
subtropical storm through early Thursday. Further strengthening is 
likely later on Thursday, and Josephine could become a post-tropical 
cyclone with hurricane-force winds.
 
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the
center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds are possible in gusts along portions of the
northeastern United States coast through Thursday. See products
issued by your local National Weather Service office for more
details.
 
COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to locally moderate coastal flooding is
ongoing along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast and will
continue through the rest of the week around times of high tide.
Please refer to products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office for more information.
 
SURF: Large swells generated by Josephine are affecting much of the
eastern seaboard of the United States and portions of Atlantic
Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart