SUPPORT TRACK THE TROPICS
Over the last decade plus if you appreciate the information and tracking I provide during the season along with this website which donations help keep it running please consider a one time... recurring or yearly donation if you are able to help me out...
Venmo: @TrackTheTropicsLouisiana
Website: TrackTheTropics.com/DONATE
Venmo: @TrackTheTropicsLouisiana
Website: TrackTheTropics.com/DONATE
DONATE2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sat, 14 Jun 2025 10:01:21 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
461 <br />AXNT20 KNHC 140959<br />TWDAT <br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />1215 UTC Sat Jun 14 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />0730 UTC.<br /><br />...TROPICAL WAVES...<br /><br />An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 16N, and<br />just SW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving westward around 10 kt. <br />A few showers are observed near the wave axis.<br /><br />Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W, from the Mona<br />Passage south of 18N to western Venezuela, moving westward at<br />10-15 kt. A few showers are observed near the wave axis.<br /><br />An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68.5W, south of 17N, <br />moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are present near the<br />wave axis, with a large cluster of deep thunderstorms ahead of the<br />wave over NW Venezuela and portions of Colombia.<br /><br />A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, south of 18N,<br />extending across eastern Honduras, Nicaragua and western Costa <br />Rica, into the eastern Pacific. The wave is moving westward at <br />around 10 kt. A few showers near the wave axis.<br /><br />...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <br /><br />The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of<br />Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N30W. The<br />ITCZ extends from 08N30W to 06N35W, then resumes W of a tropical<br />wave near 05N39W to the coast of Brazil at 02N51W. No significant<br />convection is evident along the monsoon trough or ITCZ, except<br />near the coast of Brazil from the Equator to the ITCZ, W of 48W.<br /><br />...GULF OF AMERICA...<br /><br />An upper level trough extends from the central United States <br />southward across Texas and NE Mexico, and the adjacent Gulf <br />waters, and is providing unstable conditions to the east of the <br />trough. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the<br />northern Gulf waters. At the surface, a surface trough is <br />analyzed in the SW Gulf west of the Yucatan Peninsula with <br />scattered thunderstorms south of 22N. The rest of the Gulf is <br />mainly influenced by the western periphery of the Atlantic <br />subtropical ridge, extending westward across Florida and into the <br />central Gulf. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower <br />pressures in Mexico result in moderate to fresh SE winds over much<br />of the western and central Gulf waters. Seas in the area <br />described are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and <br />slight seas prevail, locally 3-5 ft in the Straits of Florida. <br /><br />For the forecast, Atlantic ridging will extend westward across <br />the Gulf through the next several days. Fresh northeast to east <br />winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan<br />Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough <br />develops daily and moves westward. Moderate to fresh southeast <br />winds are forecast elsewhere in the western and south- central <br />Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the <br />basin. <br /><br />...CARIBBEAN SEA...<br /><br />The eastern portion of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough<br />extends from Costa Rica into the SW Caribbean through a 1010 mb<br />low pressure area near 11N81W to the coast of Colombia near<br />10.5N75W. Scattered thunderstorms are present near the low.<br /><br />The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high<br />pressure centered just east of Bermuda and lower pressure over <br />Colombia and the SW Caribbean continues to support fresh to <br />locally strong easterly trade winds across the eastern and <br />central Caribbean, and near the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these <br />waters are 5-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight<br />to moderate seas are prevalent, except locally fresh winds through<br />the Windward Passage.<br /><br />For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N <br />of the basin and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean and <br />in northern South America will maintain fresh to strong trades and<br />moderate to rough seas over most of the central and west-central <br />Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to fresh <br />to strong speeds near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening and <br />overnight hours, with greater coverage of these winds expected to <br />begin on Mon, with passage of a tropical wave. Moderate to fresh <br />winds will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba and the SW<br />Caribbean where gentle to moderate winds are expected through <br />early next week. Mostly fresh trades will remain over the Tropical<br />N Atlantic zones through early next week. Moderate to locally <br />rough seas with these winds will gradually subside through <br />tonight. <br /><br />...ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br /><br />Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on<br />tropical waves present in the basin. <br /><br />The broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic dominates<br />the tropical Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between the<br />ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to<br />fresh easterly winds south of 22N and west of 40W, including<br />through the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. In<br />the eastern Atlantic, moderate to locally strong N-NE winds and <br />seas of 6-9 ft are noted north of 20N and east of 20W. Elsewhere,<br />moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.<br /><br />For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will be the main <br />feature controlling the wind regime across the region into next <br />week, keeping fairly benign marine conditions. Pulsing fresh to <br />locally strong winds are expected north of Hispaniola to near 22N <br />during each late afternoon and at night through early next week. <br /><br />$$<br />Lewitsky
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sat, 14 Jun 2025 10:01:21 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
461 <br />AXNT20 KNHC 140959<br />TWDAT <br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />1215 UTC Sat Jun 14 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />0730 UTC.<br /><br />...TROPICAL WAVES...<br /><br />An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 16N, and<br />just SW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving westward around 10 kt. <br />A few showers are observed near the wave axis.<br /><br />Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W, from the Mona<br />Passage south of 18N to western Venezuela, moving westward at<br />10-15 kt. A few showers are observed near the wave axis.<br /><br />An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68.5W, south of 17N, <br />moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are present near the<br />wave axis, with a large cluster of deep thunderstorms ahead of the<br />wave over NW Venezuela and portions of Colombia.<br /><br />A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, south of 18N,<br />extending across eastern Honduras, Nicaragua and western Costa <br />Rica, into the eastern Pacific. The wave is moving westward at <br />around 10 kt. A few showers near the wave axis.<br /><br />...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <br /><br />The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of<br />Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N30W. The<br />ITCZ extends from 08N30W to 06N35W, then resumes W of a tropical<br />wave near 05N39W to the coast of Brazil at 02N51W. No significant<br />convection is evident along the monsoon trough or ITCZ, except<br />near the coast of Brazil from the Equator to the ITCZ, W of 48W.<br /><br />...GULF OF AMERICA...<br /><br />An upper level trough extends from the central United States <br />southward across Texas and NE Mexico, and the adjacent Gulf <br />waters, and is providing unstable conditions to the east of the <br />trough. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the<br />northern Gulf waters. At the surface, a surface trough is <br />analyzed in the SW Gulf west of the Yucatan Peninsula with <br />scattered thunderstorms south of 22N. The rest of the Gulf is <br />mainly influenced by the western periphery of the Atlantic <br />subtropical ridge, extending westward across Florida and into the <br />central Gulf. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower <br />pressures in Mexico result in moderate to fresh SE winds over much<br />of the western and central Gulf waters. Seas in the area <br />described are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and <br />slight seas prevail, locally 3-5 ft in the Straits of Florida. <br /><br />For the forecast, Atlantic ridging will extend westward across <br />the Gulf through the next several days. Fresh northeast to east <br />winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan<br />Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough <br />develops daily and moves westward. Moderate to fresh southeast <br />winds are forecast elsewhere in the western and south- central <br />Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the <br />basin. <br /><br />...CARIBBEAN SEA...<br /><br />The eastern portion of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough<br />extends from Costa Rica into the SW Caribbean through a 1010 mb<br />low pressure area near 11N81W to the coast of Colombia near<br />10.5N75W. Scattered thunderstorms are present near the low.<br /><br />The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high<br />pressure centered just east of Bermuda and lower pressure over <br />Colombia and the SW Caribbean continues to support fresh to <br />locally strong easterly trade winds across the eastern and <br />central Caribbean, and near the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these <br />waters are 5-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight<br />to moderate seas are prevalent, except locally fresh winds through<br />the Windward Passage.<br /><br />For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N <br />of the basin and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean and <br />in northern South America will maintain fresh to strong trades and<br />moderate to rough seas over most of the central and west-central <br />Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to fresh <br />to strong speeds near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening and <br />overnight hours, with greater coverage of these winds expected to <br />begin on Mon, with passage of a tropical wave. Moderate to fresh <br />winds will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba and the SW<br />Caribbean where gentle to moderate winds are expected through <br />early next week. Mostly fresh trades will remain over the Tropical<br />N Atlantic zones through early next week. Moderate to locally <br />rough seas with these winds will gradually subside through <br />tonight. <br /><br />...ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br /><br />Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on<br />tropical waves present in the basin. <br /><br />The broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic dominates<br />the tropical Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between the<br />ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to<br />fresh easterly winds south of 22N and west of 40W, including<br />through the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. In<br />the eastern Atlantic, moderate to locally strong N-NE winds and <br />seas of 6-9 ft are noted north of 20N and east of 20W. Elsewhere,<br />moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.<br /><br />For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will be the main <br />feature controlling the wind regime across the region into next <br />week, keeping fairly benign marine conditions. Pulsing fresh to <br />locally strong winds are expected north of Hispaniola to near 22N <br />during each late afternoon and at night through early next week. <br /><br />$$<br />Lewitsky
Active Tropical Systems
- Sun, 15 Jun 2025 23:40:29 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 14 Jun 2025 15:22:54 GMT - Sat, 14 Jun 2025 11:40:29 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 141140
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sat, 14 Jun 2025 14:38:25 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
135 <br />NOUS42 KNHC 141435<br />REPRPD<br />WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS<br />CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.<br />1035 AM EDT SAT 14 JUNE 2025<br />SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)<br /> VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z JUNE 2025<br /> TCPOD NUMBER.....25-014<br /><br />I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS<br /> 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.<br /> 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.<br /><br />II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS<br /> 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.<br /> 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.<br /><br />$$<br />WJM/ZTH<br /><br />NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf