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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Mon, 21 Sep 2026 04:21:01 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
656
AXNT20 KNHC 210419
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Sep 21 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 29W, south of
16N, moving eastward at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is noted with this wave.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W, south of
20N, drifting slowly westward. No significant convection is noted
with this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 19N16W to
10N20W to 06N35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N
to 15N and east of 20W, and from 08N to 10N between 47W and 52W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area generating
light to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper
low centered over west-central Florida is supporting clusters of
showers and thunderstorms off Panama City, Florida, off Tampa Bay,
Florida, and over the Florida Straits.
For the forecast, weak surface ridging across the southeastern
U.S. will maintain generally gentle to moderate winds across the
basin through mid week. A vigorous upper-level low and associated
surface low or trough over the central Gulf will contribute to
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf through
the midweek, with the Straits of Florida the most active area. A
cold front may sink into the northern Gulf Thu night through Fri,
leading to a modest increase in winds across the basin.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A relatively weak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate
to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail east of 80W. Light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 80W.
An upper trough reaches from the eastern Gulf into the northwest
Caribbean. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of the upper
trough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms off,
Nicaragua, southwest of Jamaica, and off eastern Cuba and the
Windward Passage.
For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between weak high
pressure currently near Bermuda and the Colombian Low will
maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean throughout the upcoming work week. A vigorous upper-
level low over the Gulf of America will promote scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the west and
northwestern Caribbean through midweek.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
For awareness purposes, Tropical Storm Fay is centered northeast
of the discussion area near 34.1N 31.9W at 21/0300 UTC or 335 nm
southwest of the Azores, moving ESE at 4 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt
with gusts to 75 kt.
An upper trough reaches from the eastern Gulf into the northwest
Caribbean. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of the upper
trough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms from
the Florida Straits, off northern Cuba, across the central and
southern Bahamas, and between the central Bahamas and Bermuda. A
weak pressure gradient prevails across the discussion waters.
Light to gentle winds prevail across the waters west of 45W,
except reaching moderate speeds near the central and southern
Bahamas. Slight to moderate seas prevail over these waters. E of
45W, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient across the western
Atlantic will promote variable gentle to moderate winds across
forecast waters through early Thu. A vigorous upper-level low
over the Gulf of America and Florida, and abundant tropical
moisture across the Atlantic will force scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the waters west of 70W through Wed. Low
pressure will deepen offshore of the middle Atlantic coast of
the U.S. late Wed through Fri, allowing a cold front to move
into the far NW waters and N Florida Thu through Fri. The front
will be accompanied by increasing winds and the potential for
large N-NE swell.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fay is near 34.1N 31.9W at 11 PM EDT, and is
moving east-southeast at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt
with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 995 mb.
Fay will move to 33.7N 31.8W Mon morning, 32.7N 32.5W Mon evening,
31.6N 33.9W Tue morning, 30.8N 35.7W Tue evening, then weaken to
a remnant low near 30.1N 37.6W Wed morning, and move to 29.6N
39.3W Wed evening. Fay will change little in intensity as it moves
to 29.6N 42.2W late Thu.
$$
Christensen
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Mon, 21 Sep 2026 04:21:01 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
656
AXNT20 KNHC 210419
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Sep 21 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 29W, south of
16N, moving eastward at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is noted with this wave.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W, south of
20N, drifting slowly westward. No significant convection is noted
with this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 19N16W to
10N20W to 06N35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N
to 15N and east of 20W, and from 08N to 10N between 47W and 52W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area generating
light to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper
low centered over west-central Florida is supporting clusters of
showers and thunderstorms off Panama City, Florida, off Tampa Bay,
Florida, and over the Florida Straits.
For the forecast, weak surface ridging across the southeastern
U.S. will maintain generally gentle to moderate winds across the
basin through mid week. A vigorous upper-level low and associated
surface low or trough over the central Gulf will contribute to
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf through
the midweek, with the Straits of Florida the most active area. A
cold front may sink into the northern Gulf Thu night through Fri,
leading to a modest increase in winds across the basin.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A relatively weak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate
to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail east of 80W. Light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 80W.
An upper trough reaches from the eastern Gulf into the northwest
Caribbean. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of the upper
trough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms off,
Nicaragua, southwest of Jamaica, and off eastern Cuba and the
Windward Passage.
For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between weak high
pressure currently near Bermuda and the Colombian Low will
maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean throughout the upcoming work week. A vigorous upper-
level low over the Gulf of America will promote scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the west and
northwestern Caribbean through midweek.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
For awareness purposes, Tropical Storm Fay is centered northeast
of the discussion area near 34.1N 31.9W at 21/0300 UTC or 335 nm
southwest of the Azores, moving ESE at 4 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt
with gusts to 75 kt.
An upper trough reaches from the eastern Gulf into the northwest
Caribbean. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of the upper
trough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms from
the Florida Straits, off northern Cuba, across the central and
southern Bahamas, and between the central Bahamas and Bermuda. A
weak pressure gradient prevails across the discussion waters.
Light to gentle winds prevail across the waters west of 45W,
except reaching moderate speeds near the central and southern
Bahamas. Slight to moderate seas prevail over these waters. E of
45W, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient across the western
Atlantic will promote variable gentle to moderate winds across
forecast waters through early Thu. A vigorous upper-level low
over the Gulf of America and Florida, and abundant tropical
moisture across the Atlantic will force scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the waters west of 70W through Wed. Low
pressure will deepen offshore of the middle Atlantic coast of
the U.S. late Wed through Fri, allowing a cold front to move
into the far NW waters and N Florida Thu through Fri. The front
will be accompanied by increasing winds and the potential for
large N-NE swell.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fay is near 34.1N 31.9W at 11 PM EDT, and is
moving east-southeast at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt
with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 995 mb.
Fay will move to 33.7N 31.8W Mon morning, 32.7N 32.5W Mon evening,
31.6N 33.9W Tue morning, 30.8N 35.7W Tue evening, then weaken to
a remnant low near 30.1N 37.6W Wed morning, and move to 29.6N
39.3W Wed evening. Fay will change little in intensity as it moves
to 29.6N 42.2W late Thu.
$$
Christensen
Active Tropical Systems
- Mon, 21 Sep 2026 05:27:29 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
598
ABNT20 KNHC 210524
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly - Mon, 21 Sep 2026 03:22:47 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Graphics - NHC Atlantic
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2026 03:22:47 GMT - Mon, 21 Sep 2026 02:41:00 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 7 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026000 WTNT41 KNHC 210240 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 Fay is beginning to feel the effects of increasing northwesterly shear over its circulation, with satellite images showing its outflow pattern becoming restricted in that quadrant. However, an ASCAT-C pass received after the prior advisory showed a peak wind retrieval of 53 kt, and that the center was a little further south and east of what was previously estimated. Assuming some wind undersampling of this instrument along with a slight increase in the DMINT and DPRINT intensity estimates, the initial intensity is being nudged up to 60 kt for this advisory, making Fay just shy of hurricane intensity. Fay appears to have turned east-southeastward tonight, with an estimated motion of 130/4 kt. Over the next day or so, a building ridge to the northwest should continue to turn Fay southward and then southwestward with gradually increasing forward motion. The NHC track forecast this cycle was shifted a bit southward compared to the previous one, but converges close to the previous forecast track in 60-72 h. This track forecast remains in good agreement with the reliable HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) aids. The tropical storm is just about out of time to intensify further, though it remains possible Fay could briefly become a hurricane tonight before the northwesterly vertical wind shear becomes prohibitively strong from an amplifying upper-level ridge to the northwest. This shear will ultimately import very dry mid-level air into Fay's core, causing the cyclone to quickly decouple in the next 24-36 h. The global and hurricane-regional model guidance remains in good agreement on Fay struggling to produce organized convection by 48-60 h, and that continues to be when the NHC forecast indicates the cyclone becoming post-tropical. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the prior one beyond the next 12 h, in good agreement with the intensity aid consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 34.1N 31.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 33.7N 31.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 32.7N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 31.6N 33.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 30.8N 35.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 30.1N 37.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/0000Z 29.6N 39.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0000Z 29.6N 42.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
- Mon, 21 Sep 2026 02:38:05 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2026387 FONT11 KNHC 210237 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN - Mon, 21 Sep 2026 02:38:04 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 7 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026349 WTNT31 KNHC 210237 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...FAY NEARLY A HURRICANE BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 31.9W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 31.9 West. Fay is now moving toward the east-southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the southwest is anticipated on Monday which should continue through the early part of this week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change is strength is forecast tonight, but Fay should begin to weaken on Monday. The tropical cyclone is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by the middle of this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Papin
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sun, 20 Sep 2026 15:43:24 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 201543
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT SUN 20 SEPTEMBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-112
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA EP99
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42
A. 21/1600Z
B. NOAA2 01AAE TDR
C. 21/1300Z
D. 15.0N 103.0W
E. 21/1500Z TO 21/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HOURLY FIXES ON EP99 AT
22/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.
$$
KAL
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf