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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sun, 20 Sep 2026 09:14:29 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 200914
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Sep 20 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W from 06N
to 21N, drifting slowly westward. Nearby convection is described
below in the Atlantic section.
A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 84W to the S
of 20N along the coast of Nicaragua to NE Costa Rica, moving
westward 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 13N to 20N between 78W and 83W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14N16W to
07N35W. The ITCZ extends from 07N35W to 07N45W, then resumes W of
a tropical wave from 13N53W to 11N61W. Aside from convection
noted in the Atlantic section below, scattered moderate convection
is noted within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 17W and
35W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area with a 1011 mb
low pressure area in the W-central Gulf near 23N94W. An E to W
surface trough extends from the Straits of Florida to the low. A
few showers and thunderstorms are active along and within 90 nm south
of the trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active
over the northeast Gulf, related to divergence aloft near an upper
low centered over Florida. Gentle to moderate winds and 2-4 ft
seas prevail across the Gulf.
For the forecast, weak ridging north of the Gulf will maintain generally
gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf through mid week. An
upper- low and associated surface low/trough over the central Gulf
will contribute to scattered showers and thunderstorms over
mostly the eastern Gulf through the early part of the week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A relatively weak pressure pattern is across the basin with
surface troughs N of the basin interrupting the typical Azores-
Bermuda highs. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas are found
across the south-central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds
and 2-4 ft seas elsewhere. Some convection is occurring near a
tropical wave near 84W as described above, and along the south
coast of Cuba.
For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian Low will maintain moderate to fresh
to trades over the south-central Caribbean for the next several
days. A vigorous upper-level low will promote scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean
through the early part of the week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
For awareness purposes, newly named Tropical Storm Fay is
centered northeast of the discussion waters is well southwest of
the Azores near 33.7N 33.1W at 5 AM EDT, moving NE at 4 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Divergence aloft associated with an upper low over west-central Florida
is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
Bahamas and off northeast Florida, focused in part on a pair of
surface troughs over those respective areas. Farther east, another
upper trough reaches from an upper low near 28N48W to 25N55W to
29N65W. This upper trough is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms from 20N to 25N between 50W and 60W, focused along
a surface trough reaching from 30N60W to 23N50W. In addition, the
upper pattern is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms
from 20N to 28N between 40W to 45W along a trough from 30N40W to
23N46W. Farther south, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are active within 75 to 150 nm in the northeast
quadrant of a 1012 mb surface low centered near 14N53W. Broad
ridging covers the eastern Atlantic. Gentle to moderate winds and
3-5 ft seas prevail across the Atlantic discussion area.
For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will
promote only gentle to moderate winds across forecast waters for
the next several days. A vigorous upper-level low and abundant
tropical moisture will force scattered showers and thunderstorms
for the waters west of 70W through the early part of the week.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fay is forecast to eventually approach
and move into the discussion waters to near 30N 36W Tue night,
but by then as a remnant low.
$$
Christensen
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sun, 20 Sep 2026 09:14:29 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 200914
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Sep 20 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W from 06N
to 21N, drifting slowly westward. Nearby convection is described
below in the Atlantic section.
A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 84W to the S
of 20N along the coast of Nicaragua to NE Costa Rica, moving
westward 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 13N to 20N between 78W and 83W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14N16W to
07N35W. The ITCZ extends from 07N35W to 07N45W, then resumes W of
a tropical wave from 13N53W to 11N61W. Aside from convection
noted in the Atlantic section below, scattered moderate convection
is noted within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 17W and
35W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area with a 1011 mb
low pressure area in the W-central Gulf near 23N94W. An E to W
surface trough extends from the Straits of Florida to the low. A
few showers and thunderstorms are active along and within 90 nm south
of the trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active
over the northeast Gulf, related to divergence aloft near an upper
low centered over Florida. Gentle to moderate winds and 2-4 ft
seas prevail across the Gulf.
For the forecast, weak ridging north of the Gulf will maintain generally
gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf through mid week. An
upper- low and associated surface low/trough over the central Gulf
will contribute to scattered showers and thunderstorms over
mostly the eastern Gulf through the early part of the week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A relatively weak pressure pattern is across the basin with
surface troughs N of the basin interrupting the typical Azores-
Bermuda highs. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas are found
across the south-central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds
and 2-4 ft seas elsewhere. Some convection is occurring near a
tropical wave near 84W as described above, and along the south
coast of Cuba.
For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian Low will maintain moderate to fresh
to trades over the south-central Caribbean for the next several
days. A vigorous upper-level low will promote scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean
through the early part of the week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
For awareness purposes, newly named Tropical Storm Fay is
centered northeast of the discussion waters is well southwest of
the Azores near 33.7N 33.1W at 5 AM EDT, moving NE at 4 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Divergence aloft associated with an upper low over west-central Florida
is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
Bahamas and off northeast Florida, focused in part on a pair of
surface troughs over those respective areas. Farther east, another
upper trough reaches from an upper low near 28N48W to 25N55W to
29N65W. This upper trough is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms from 20N to 25N between 50W and 60W, focused along
a surface trough reaching from 30N60W to 23N50W. In addition, the
upper pattern is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms
from 20N to 28N between 40W to 45W along a trough from 30N40W to
23N46W. Farther south, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are active within 75 to 150 nm in the northeast
quadrant of a 1012 mb surface low centered near 14N53W. Broad
ridging covers the eastern Atlantic. Gentle to moderate winds and
3-5 ft seas prevail across the Atlantic discussion area.
For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will
promote only gentle to moderate winds across forecast waters for
the next several days. A vigorous upper-level low and abundant
tropical moisture will force scattered showers and thunderstorms
for the waters west of 70W through the early part of the week.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fay is forecast to eventually approach
and move into the discussion waters to near 30N 36W Tue night,
but by then as a remnant low.
$$
Christensen
Active Tropical Systems
- Sun, 20 Sep 2026 08:43:22 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Graphics - NHC Atlantic
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2026 08:43:22 GMT - Sun, 20 Sep 2026 08:42:18 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 4 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 900 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026000 WTNT41 KNHC 200842 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 Deep convection has been increasing near the center of the cyclone and in curved bands on its north side over the past several hours. The latest satellite intensity estimates have also increased and range from 35 to 47 kt. Considering these data and the ASCAT pass from last night, the initial wind speed is nudged up to 40 kt. This makes the system Tropical Storm Fay. The storm is quite compact, with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extent only about 40 n mi from the center and the associated convection extends about 100-150 n mi across. The combination of relatively moist air and baroclinic enhancements from an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should cause Fay to gain some more strength during the next 12 to 24 hours. However, the trough is expected to lift out on Monday, and an increase in shear and intrusions of dry air should end the opportunity for strengthening and cause weakening by that time. Fay will likely become a remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate by the end of the week as it is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term given the improvement in the storm's organization and expected baroclinic support. Fay is drifting to the north-northeast, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 020/4 kt. This general motion should continue for about 24 hours. However, a low- to mid-level ridge is anticipated to build to the north of the storm on Monday, and that should cause Fay to turn southwestward and gradually accelerate in that direction during the early and middle portions of the week. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near a blend of the HCCA, GDMI, and TVCN aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 33.7N 33.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 34.1N 32.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 34.0N 32.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 33.3N 32.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 32.0N 33.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 31.0N 34.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0600Z 30.1N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0600Z 28.9N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
- Sun, 20 Sep 2026 08:41:47 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026000 FONT11 KNHC 200841 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI - Sun, 20 Sep 2026 08:41:18 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 4 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 900 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026000 WTNT31 KNHC 200841 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM FAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.7N 33.1W ABOUT 450 MI...730 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 33.1 West. Fay is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected for about another day. A turn to the southwest is expected on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
- Sun, 20 Sep 2026 08:41:18 +0000: Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062026) - NHC Atlantic
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM FAY... As of 9:00 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 the center of Fay was located near 33.7, -33.1 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sat, 19 Sep 2026 18:06:56 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
914
NOUS42 KNHC 191806
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0205 PM EDT SAT 19 SEPTEMBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-111 AMENDMENT
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HOURLY FIXES ON EP99 AT
21/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.
3. REMARK: THE SURVEY MISSION TASKED ON THE ORIGINAL VERSION OF
TCPOD 26-111 WILL NOT FLY.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf