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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sat, 03 Oct 2026 09:40:23 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
395
AXNT20 KNHC 030940
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Oct 3 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0925 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W, south of 20N, moving
westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are observed near the wave
axis mainly S of 13N.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 115 kt. A few showers are noted near the
northern portion of the wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 08N27W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N27W to 08N39W. Scattered to numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection is evident from 04N to 16N and
between 37W and 57W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
An upper-level low spinning over the Bay of Campeche supports
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the E Gulf waters, and
isolated to scattered showers elsewhere. The pressure gradient
between a surface trough along 93W and a high pressure system
north of Bermuda sustain moderate to locally strong SE winds over
the Gulf E of 93W. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail W of 93W.
For the forecast, the aforementioned upper-level low will sustain
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over much of the
Gulf through the weekend. A moderate pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and a surface trough
in the central Gulf will support moderate to locally strong SE
winds over much of the eastern half of the Gulf into Sun. A weak
cold front is expected to move across the NW Gulf this weekend,
and stall from the Florida panhandle to NW Gulf and to the SW by
late Sun. Weak low pressure may ride up along the front during the
weekend and into Mon enhancing winds some in the NW Gulf and in
the north-central Gulf. The front will remain stationary into
midweek. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected behind the
front beginning Tue, mainly in the NE and north-central Gulf, as
strong high pressure builds southward behind it. Light to moderate
are generally expected across the basin through the period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found off Yucatan
and in the SW Caribbean Sea. Similar activity is noted over and
around Hispaniola and Cuba. A broad subtropical ridge north of the
area supports moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds and
seas of 4-8 ft across much of the basin, except for slight to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in the SW Caribbean.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will force fresh
to locally strong trades over the south-central Caribbean and in
the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. As a frontal boundary
reaches the waters north of the Bahamas, the pressure gradient
will slacken again from Sun through the middle of next week
leading to gentle to moderate trades across the basin. Trades may
pulse to fresh speeds off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela
Mon night.
Of note, locally heavy rain and a few strong thunderstorms are
possible across Hispaniola this weekend, particularly over Haiti
and western Hispaniola. A mid-upper level trough will deepen
toward Hispaniola and develop a closed circulation near the island
by Sun. This combined with available moisture and local effects
as daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting
will likely increase the chances of rain in the area.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The interaction between a surface trough extending from 31N52W to
near Hispaniola and an upper trough over the western Atlantic
promote scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm
on both sides of the trough axis. High pressure north of Bermuda
supports moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas across much of
the SW North Atlantic, W of 55W.
In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, high pressure centered west
of France sustains moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas between 30W and 55W. E of 30W and north of the
monsoon trough, a tighter pressure gradient allows for moderate
to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 6-10 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the combination of a trough extending
from SE of Bermuda to Hispaniola and a broad upper-level trough
digging southward will continue to support scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend between Bermuda and the Caribbean.
High pressure will support mainly moderate easterly winds and moderate
seas through the forecast period S of 30N. Looking ahead, a cold
front may reach the waters off of NE Florida Tue morning and
stall. Strong high pressure will nudge southward behind the front
with the resultant pressure gradient between it and the front
likely to induce strong NE winds, with potential to near gale
force, and along with building seas offshore NE Florida.
$$
Delgado
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sat, 03 Oct 2026 09:40:23 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
395
AXNT20 KNHC 030940
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Oct 3 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0925 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W, south of 20N, moving
westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are observed near the wave
axis mainly S of 13N.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 115 kt. A few showers are noted near the
northern portion of the wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 08N27W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N27W to 08N39W. Scattered to numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection is evident from 04N to 16N and
between 37W and 57W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
An upper-level low spinning over the Bay of Campeche supports
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the E Gulf waters, and
isolated to scattered showers elsewhere. The pressure gradient
between a surface trough along 93W and a high pressure system
north of Bermuda sustain moderate to locally strong SE winds over
the Gulf E of 93W. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail W of 93W.
For the forecast, the aforementioned upper-level low will sustain
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over much of the
Gulf through the weekend. A moderate pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and a surface trough
in the central Gulf will support moderate to locally strong SE
winds over much of the eastern half of the Gulf into Sun. A weak
cold front is expected to move across the NW Gulf this weekend,
and stall from the Florida panhandle to NW Gulf and to the SW by
late Sun. Weak low pressure may ride up along the front during the
weekend and into Mon enhancing winds some in the NW Gulf and in
the north-central Gulf. The front will remain stationary into
midweek. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected behind the
front beginning Tue, mainly in the NE and north-central Gulf, as
strong high pressure builds southward behind it. Light to moderate
are generally expected across the basin through the period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found off Yucatan
and in the SW Caribbean Sea. Similar activity is noted over and
around Hispaniola and Cuba. A broad subtropical ridge north of the
area supports moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds and
seas of 4-8 ft across much of the basin, except for slight to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in the SW Caribbean.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will force fresh
to locally strong trades over the south-central Caribbean and in
the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. As a frontal boundary
reaches the waters north of the Bahamas, the pressure gradient
will slacken again from Sun through the middle of next week
leading to gentle to moderate trades across the basin. Trades may
pulse to fresh speeds off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela
Mon night.
Of note, locally heavy rain and a few strong thunderstorms are
possible across Hispaniola this weekend, particularly over Haiti
and western Hispaniola. A mid-upper level trough will deepen
toward Hispaniola and develop a closed circulation near the island
by Sun. This combined with available moisture and local effects
as daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting
will likely increase the chances of rain in the area.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The interaction between a surface trough extending from 31N52W to
near Hispaniola and an upper trough over the western Atlantic
promote scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm
on both sides of the trough axis. High pressure north of Bermuda
supports moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas across much of
the SW North Atlantic, W of 55W.
In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, high pressure centered west
of France sustains moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas between 30W and 55W. E of 30W and north of the
monsoon trough, a tighter pressure gradient allows for moderate
to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 6-10 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the combination of a trough extending
from SE of Bermuda to Hispaniola and a broad upper-level trough
digging southward will continue to support scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend between Bermuda and the Caribbean.
High pressure will support mainly moderate easterly winds and moderate
seas through the forecast period S of 30N. Looking ahead, a cold
front may reach the waters off of NE Florida Tue morning and
stall. Strong high pressure will nudge southward behind the front
with the resultant pressure gradient between it and the front
likely to induce strong NE winds, with potential to near gale
force, and along with building seas offshore NE Florida.
$$
Delgado
Active Tropical Systems
- Sun, 04 Oct 2026 23:35:31 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 03 Oct 2026 14:40:30 GMT - Sat, 03 Oct 2026 11:35:31 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031135
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sat, 03 Oct 2026 13:37:06 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 031336
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0940 AM EDT SAT 03 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-125
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
KAL/IDP
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf