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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Thu, 15 Oct 2026 18:19:35 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
095
AXNT20 KNHC 151819
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter
the northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to
the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and
moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected
over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW
Gulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected
with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist
over the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends SW
to 1008 mb low pressure captured by recent ASCAT scatterometer
data at 06N33.5W to 03N39W. The ITCZ extends from 03N39W to the
coast of northern South America at 05N52W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 14W
and 25W. Similar convection is noted within 120 nm in the SE
semicircle and 240 nm in the NW semicircle of the low.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
An upper-level low over Yucatan and NW Caribbean is supporting
isolated to widely scattered showers across the southern half of
the basin. A pair of weak surface troughs are analyzed in the SW
Gulf with little impacts. Otherwise, broad ridging extends across
the basin with moderate E-SE winds dominating. Seas are 1-3 ft in
the NE Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region through
Fri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to
moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest
Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay
of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to
rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the
west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by
early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with
the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over
the SW Gulf through Sun.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper-level low over Yucatan and NW Caribbean are supporting
isolated to widely scattered showers over the NW portion of the
basin. A surface trough extends from 20N84W to eastern Honduras
and NE Nicaragua at 13N84W. These features support moderate
isolated strong convection from 15N to 21N between 77W and 83W.
Fresh to locally strong winds are in the S-central Caribbean with
moderate to fresh elsewhere west of 68W, except gentle to moderate
in the SW Caribbean S of 11N, and near the coasts of Nicaragua and
Honduras. Seas are mainly 3 ft E of 68W, and 3-6 ft elsewhere
except slight in the SW Caribbean and near the coasts of Nicaragua
and Honduras.
For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the
Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trade winds offshore
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the upcoming
weekend, with rough seas offshore Colombia. Moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. An area
of showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough will
continue to affect the NW Caribbean today and tonight. Gusty
winds and locally rough seas will be associated with this
convective activity.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A frontal trough is in the central Atlantic extending from N of
the area through 31N52W to 26N63W. Scattered moderate convection
is N of 29N within 60-120 nm ahead of the trough. Moderate SW
winds are across the same area with 6-8 ft seas. Recent ASCAT
scatterometer data showed a 1013 mb low pressure off to the SE
near 21N37W with a N to S oriented surface trough through the low.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 19N
to 23N between 27W and 32W, and also from 22N to 26N between 33W
and 40W. Moderate to fresh winds are found from 20N to 27N between
30W and 40W near the low and trough. Seas are 6-9 ft there. Seas
are 4-7 ft across the remainder of the waters E of 55W. Please
refer to the ITCZ/monsoon trough section for additional convection
with an embedded low in the monsoon trough. A broad and weak
pressure pattern dominates the remainder of the basin. Gentle to
moderate winds dominate the majority and rest of the basin,
locally fresh from the SE Bahamas to the Windward Passage and NE
Cuba, and S of 10N to the W of 55W near the coast of northern
South America. Seas are 4-7 ft in N-NE swell N of 27N between 55W
and 65W, and 3-5 ft elsewhere W of 55W.
For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will continue to dominate
the forecast waters through Fri. A cold front will reach the NE
waters on Fri with little change in winds and seas. A stronger
cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late
Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda to
South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and
rough seas will follow the front.
$$
Lewitsky
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Thu, 15 Oct 2026 18:19:35 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
095
AXNT20 KNHC 151819
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter
the northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to
the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and
moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected
over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW
Gulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected
with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist
over the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends SW
to 1008 mb low pressure captured by recent ASCAT scatterometer
data at 06N33.5W to 03N39W. The ITCZ extends from 03N39W to the
coast of northern South America at 05N52W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 14W
and 25W. Similar convection is noted within 120 nm in the SE
semicircle and 240 nm in the NW semicircle of the low.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
An upper-level low over Yucatan and NW Caribbean is supporting
isolated to widely scattered showers across the southern half of
the basin. A pair of weak surface troughs are analyzed in the SW
Gulf with little impacts. Otherwise, broad ridging extends across
the basin with moderate E-SE winds dominating. Seas are 1-3 ft in
the NE Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region through
Fri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to
moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest
Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay
of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to
rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the
west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by
early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with
the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over
the SW Gulf through Sun.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper-level low over Yucatan and NW Caribbean are supporting
isolated to widely scattered showers over the NW portion of the
basin. A surface trough extends from 20N84W to eastern Honduras
and NE Nicaragua at 13N84W. These features support moderate
isolated strong convection from 15N to 21N between 77W and 83W.
Fresh to locally strong winds are in the S-central Caribbean with
moderate to fresh elsewhere west of 68W, except gentle to moderate
in the SW Caribbean S of 11N, and near the coasts of Nicaragua and
Honduras. Seas are mainly 3 ft E of 68W, and 3-6 ft elsewhere
except slight in the SW Caribbean and near the coasts of Nicaragua
and Honduras.
For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the
Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trade winds offshore
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the upcoming
weekend, with rough seas offshore Colombia. Moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. An area
of showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough will
continue to affect the NW Caribbean today and tonight. Gusty
winds and locally rough seas will be associated with this
convective activity.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A frontal trough is in the central Atlantic extending from N of
the area through 31N52W to 26N63W. Scattered moderate convection
is N of 29N within 60-120 nm ahead of the trough. Moderate SW
winds are across the same area with 6-8 ft seas. Recent ASCAT
scatterometer data showed a 1013 mb low pressure off to the SE
near 21N37W with a N to S oriented surface trough through the low.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 19N
to 23N between 27W and 32W, and also from 22N to 26N between 33W
and 40W. Moderate to fresh winds are found from 20N to 27N between
30W and 40W near the low and trough. Seas are 6-9 ft there. Seas
are 4-7 ft across the remainder of the waters E of 55W. Please
refer to the ITCZ/monsoon trough section for additional convection
with an embedded low in the monsoon trough. A broad and weak
pressure pattern dominates the remainder of the basin. Gentle to
moderate winds dominate the majority and rest of the basin,
locally fresh from the SE Bahamas to the Windward Passage and NE
Cuba, and S of 10N to the W of 55W near the coast of northern
South America. Seas are 4-7 ft in N-NE swell N of 27N between 55W
and 65W, and 3-5 ft elsewhere W of 55W.
For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will continue to dominate
the forecast waters through Fri. A cold front will reach the NE
waters on Fri with little change in winds and seas. A stronger
cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late
Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda to
South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and
rough seas will follow the front.
$$
Lewitsky
Active Tropical Systems
- Sat, 17 Oct 2026 05:51:39 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 15 Oct 2026 20:27:25 GMT - Thu, 15 Oct 2026 17:51:39 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
895
ABNT20 KNHC 151751
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Thu, 15 Oct 2026 14:30:38 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 151430
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 15 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-137
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE TRUDY
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73
A. 16/1730Z
B. AFXXX 0221E TRUDY
C. 16/1330Z
D. 15.1N 102.3W
E. 16/1700Z TO 16/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX MISSION INTO TRUDY FOR
17/1730Z.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf