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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Tue, 29 Sep 2026 22:19:26 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 292219
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Sep 30 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 79W, south
of 18N into eastern Panama, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered
convection is along the wave from 13N to 16N.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from 19N16W to 1012 mb low pressure
near 22N27W, to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to 08N55W to
08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm either
side of the monsoon trough between 30W and 40W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface trough reaches from 27N85W to 20N95W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are active southeast of the trough over much of
the southeast and south-central Gulf, associated with an upper
trough extending from the Florida Panhandle to the Yucatan
Peninsula. Gentle SE to S breezes are noted over the eastern
Gulf, and gentle to moderate SE winds are noted over the western
Gulf. Seas are 1-3 ft across the Gulf.
For the forecast, the trough will gradually dissipate through the
evening as high pressure builds in. Gentle to moderate return
flow will prevail, except moderate to locally fresh over the
western Gulf tonight. Winds will increase to moderate to locally
fresh across the basin by Wed evening as the pressure gradient
tightens. The gradient will weaken from west to east by the end of
the week into the weekend as a front approaches the western
portion, possibly moving into the basin by the end of the weekend
with weakening winds and subsiding seas ahead of it. Increasing
winds and building seas are possibly behind the very slow moving
front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active over the far
northwest Caribbean and Yucatan Channel, associated with an upper
trough over the Gulf. High pressure over the western Atlantic is
supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the Caribbean,
with 3-5 ft seas.
For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the
central Caribbean and near the Gulf of Honduras through the
remainder of the week. Winds may weaken there by the upcoming
weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes slightly. Moderate to
locally fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except gentle to
moderate in the SW Caribbean and the Lee of Cuba. Moderate seas
will dominate the basin, except slight in areas of weakest winds,
and also locally rough off NW Colombia late tonight.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Recently downgraded Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay is centered near
23.7N 48.2W at 29/2100 UTC or 1380 nm WSW of the Azores, moving
WSW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. The
fresh to strong winds are within 120 nm in the northern semicircle
of the low. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm
in the northeast semicircle of Fay. Maximum seas are 8 ft (2.5 m)
within 60 nm in the northwest quadrant of Fay.
Elsewhere, scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across
the northern Bahamas, associated with an upper trough over the
eastern Gulf. 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 27N62W, north
of a surface trough extending from 20N60W 11N53W. This pattern is
supporting moderate NE to E winds south of 22N and west of 55W,
except for fresh winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola.
Outside of the area around Fay, mostly gentle breezes and 5-7 ft
seas in mixed swell dominate the remainder of the north Atlantic
south of 31N.
For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will persist across the Bahamas offshores as broad
troughing lingers in the region through midweek. High pressure SE
of Bermuda will continue to build over the western Atlantic and
support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N Wed through
Fri. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin
by the weekend as the gradient weakens slightly. Meanwhile, the
remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay east of the area will
become a remnant low and move to 23.1N 49.8W Wed morning, 22.7N
52.0W Wed afternoon, and dissipate Thu morning. Slight to moderate
seas will dominate through the forecast period.
$$
Christensen
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Tue, 29 Sep 2026 22:19:26 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 292219
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Sep 30 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 79W, south
of 18N into eastern Panama, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered
convection is along the wave from 13N to 16N.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from 19N16W to 1012 mb low pressure
near 22N27W, to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to 08N55W to
08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm either
side of the monsoon trough between 30W and 40W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface trough reaches from 27N85W to 20N95W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are active southeast of the trough over much of
the southeast and south-central Gulf, associated with an upper
trough extending from the Florida Panhandle to the Yucatan
Peninsula. Gentle SE to S breezes are noted over the eastern
Gulf, and gentle to moderate SE winds are noted over the western
Gulf. Seas are 1-3 ft across the Gulf.
For the forecast, the trough will gradually dissipate through the
evening as high pressure builds in. Gentle to moderate return
flow will prevail, except moderate to locally fresh over the
western Gulf tonight. Winds will increase to moderate to locally
fresh across the basin by Wed evening as the pressure gradient
tightens. The gradient will weaken from west to east by the end of
the week into the weekend as a front approaches the western
portion, possibly moving into the basin by the end of the weekend
with weakening winds and subsiding seas ahead of it. Increasing
winds and building seas are possibly behind the very slow moving
front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active over the far
northwest Caribbean and Yucatan Channel, associated with an upper
trough over the Gulf. High pressure over the western Atlantic is
supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the Caribbean,
with 3-5 ft seas.
For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the
central Caribbean and near the Gulf of Honduras through the
remainder of the week. Winds may weaken there by the upcoming
weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes slightly. Moderate to
locally fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except gentle to
moderate in the SW Caribbean and the Lee of Cuba. Moderate seas
will dominate the basin, except slight in areas of weakest winds,
and also locally rough off NW Colombia late tonight.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Recently downgraded Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay is centered near
23.7N 48.2W at 29/2100 UTC or 1380 nm WSW of the Azores, moving
WSW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. The
fresh to strong winds are within 120 nm in the northern semicircle
of the low. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm
in the northeast semicircle of Fay. Maximum seas are 8 ft (2.5 m)
within 60 nm in the northwest quadrant of Fay.
Elsewhere, scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across
the northern Bahamas, associated with an upper trough over the
eastern Gulf. 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 27N62W, north
of a surface trough extending from 20N60W 11N53W. This pattern is
supporting moderate NE to E winds south of 22N and west of 55W,
except for fresh winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola.
Outside of the area around Fay, mostly gentle breezes and 5-7 ft
seas in mixed swell dominate the remainder of the north Atlantic
south of 31N.
For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will persist across the Bahamas offshores as broad
troughing lingers in the region through midweek. High pressure SE
of Bermuda will continue to build over the western Atlantic and
support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N Wed through
Fri. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin
by the weekend as the gradient weakens slightly. Meanwhile, the
remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay east of the area will
become a remnant low and move to 23.1N 49.8W Wed morning, 22.7N
52.0W Wed afternoon, and dissipate Thu morning. Slight to moderate
seas will dominate through the forecast period.
$$
Christensen
Active Tropical Systems
- Wed, 30 Sep 2026 02:37:47 +0000: Tropical Storm Hanna Graphics - NHC Atlantic
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2026 02:37:09 GMT - Wed, 30 Sep 2026 02:35:21 +0000: Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Discussion Number 7 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 300 AM GMT Wed Sep 30 2026000 WTNT43 KNHC 300235 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082026 300 AM GMT Wed Sep 30 2026 Visible and infrared satellite imagery shows that the low-level center remains exposed to the west of the main convection area. The convective pattern has become even more elongated west-east, likely influenced by the nearby frontal boundary. A 0032 UTC METOP-C scatterometer pass shows peak winds of 33 kt in the northeast quadrant. The latest TAFB Dvorak fix was T2.5/35 kt, aligning well with the mostly unchanged UW-CIMSS objective estimates. Based on all of these data, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The initial motion remains southeastward, now 130/10 kt, as Hanna is moving along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies to the southwest of a large trough over the northeastern Atlantic. During the next 12–24 h, the flow near the cyclone will become more west-to-east, and as Hanna weakens vertically a low-level ridge centered south of the Azores will become the main steering influence. This should result in the cyclone, or its remnants, turning east-northeastward. The updated NHC forecast track was largely unchanged from the previous advisory and remains close to the corrected multi-model consensus (HCCA). Hanna is forecast to gradually weaken as it persists in a moisture-starved environment, with moderate to strong vertical wind shear prevailing over the next 48 to 72 h. The latest GFS/ECMWF simulated satellite imagery now forecasts the system to stop producing convection in 24-36 h, at which time it would degenerate into a remnant low. After that, the remnant low is expected to open into a trough by 96 h. However, it is possible that the system becomes a post-tropical system sooner if it merges with the nearby front. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 33.7N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 33.6N 42.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 34.1N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 34.7N 39.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0000Z 35.4N 36.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/1200Z 36.1N 34.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/0000Z 36.6N 31.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pierce/Cangialosi
- Wed, 30 Sep 2026 02:34:51 +0000: Tropical Storm Hanna Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 30 2026000 FONT13 KNHC 300234 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082026 0300 UTC WED SEP 30 2026 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PIERCE/CANGIALOSI - Wed, 30 Sep 2026 02:34:51 +0000: Summary for Tropical Storm Hanna (AT3/AL082026) - NHC Atlantic
...HANNA HOLDING STEADY WHILE MAINTAINING A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK... As of 3:00 AM GMT Wed Sep 30 the center of Hanna was located near 33.7, -43.6 with movement SE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph. - Wed, 30 Sep 2026 02:34:51 +0000: Tropical Storm Hanna Public Advisory Number 7 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 300 AM GMT Wed Sep 30 2026000 WTNT33 KNHC 300234 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hanna Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082026 300 AM GMT Wed Sep 30 2026 ...HANNA HOLDING STEADY WHILE MAINTAINING A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.7N 43.6W ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 975 MI...1565 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 130 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 43.6 West. Hanna is moving toward the southeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is forecast to continue with a decrease in forward speed through morning, followed by a turn to the east-northeast. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Hanna is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone tonight or Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Pierce/Cangialosi
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Tue, 29 Sep 2026 14:18:09 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 291418
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1020 AM EDT TUE 29 SEPTEMBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 01/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-121
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: NOAA 42 WILL CONDUCT 8-HOUR P-3 RESEARCH MISSION INTO
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WEDNESDAY, DEPARTING KHRL AT 30/1330Z.
DURING THE MISSION, FOUR SMALL UAS ARE PLANNED FOR RELEASE
WITHIN THE STORM ENVIRONMENT. THEY WILL OPERATE AT OR BELOW
5,000 FT FOR ABOUT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf