2025 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models

2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2025 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed (mph) Storm Surge (ft)
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]

Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010

Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010

Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes

Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes

Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes

Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes

SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes

SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes

NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 7 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Tue, 18 Mar 2025 13:15:36 +0000: Atlantic Special Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Special Tropical Weather Outlook
    971 <br />ABNT20 KNHC 181315<br />TWOAT <br /><br />Special Tropical Weather Outlook<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />915 AM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025<br /><br />For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:<br /><br />Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.<br /><br />Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May <br />15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks <br />will be issued as conditions warrant.<br /><br />$$<br />Forecaster Hagen
Tropical Weather Discussion
  • Tue, 29 Apr 2025 22:46:54 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    361 <br />AXNT20 KNHC 292244<br />TWDAT <br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />0015 UTC Tue Apr 29 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />2130 UTC.<br /><br />...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <br /><br />The monsoon trough axis enters the eastern Atlantic through the <br />west coast of Africa near 12N17W, and continues south- <br />southwestward to 05.5N18W to near 05N22W. The ITCZ then continues <br />from 05N22W to 02.5N41W to 05.5N47W to the coast of Brazil near <br />03N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed <br />from 02N to 07.5N between 10W and 31W, and south of 05.5N between <br />32W and 47W. <br /><br />GULF OF AMERICA...<br /> <br />A 1027 mb high pressure extends a ridge from offshore the Mid- <br />Atlantic states southwestward into the northern Gulf. Mostly dry <br />and stable conditions remain in place over the basin. Scattered <br />afternoon showers and thunderstorms are observed along the coast <br />and across the nearshore coastal waters of southwest Florida, from<br />Boca Grande to the Everglades National Park. Elsewhere skies are <br />mostly fair and rain free across the basin. Moderate to fresh <br />east to southeast winds prevail across the Gulf. Seas are in the <br />range of 3 to 5 ft, except less than 3 ft NE portions, and up to 6<br />ft in the Florida Current north of Cuba.<br /> <br />For the forecast, the high pressure northeast of the Gulf will <br />force generally moderate to fresh E to SE winds across forecast <br />waters for the next few days. E winds will pulse to strong north <br />of the Yucatan peninsula and over the Bay of Campeche nightly <br />through Thu night, in association with a diurnal trough. <br />Additionally, E winds will pulse to strong over the Florida <br />Straits tonight and tomorrow night. Winds will diminish across the<br />Gulf Fri into the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may <br />reach the NE Gulf Sat night.<br /><br />CARIBBEAN SEA... <br /><br />Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the far SW Caribbean,<br />S of 11.5N between the coasts of Colombia and southern Nicaragua,<br />and in the vicinity of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered<br />passing showers dot the waters of the central and eastern <br />Caribbean to the north of 14N. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are<br />occurring across much of the central, SW and NW Caribbean, where <br />seas are 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds are found offshore of<br />NW Colombia to eastern Panama where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Winds <br />across the E Caribbean are gentle to moderate with seas around 3 <br />ft.<br /><br />For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the basin will combine<br />with the Colombian Low to support pulsing fresh to strong trades <br />at night over the Windward Passage and south of Cuba through Thu <br />night. Strong NE winds are expected near the coast of Colombia<br />tonight. Elsewhere, tranquil conditions should prevail over the <br />forecast waters through the end of the week as high pressure north<br />of the area weakens and retreats to the NE. <br /><br />ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br /><br />A stationary front is analyzed from 31N56W to 24.5N69W to Andros<br />Island, Bahamas near 24.5N78W. Scattered to locally numerous<br />showers and a few thunderstorms are along the entire length of the<br />front. A 1027 mb high behind the front is offshore of Cape<br />Hatteras, and is promoting mostly fresh N to NE winds behind the<br />front and into the Bahamas and well offshore of NE Florida. Seas <br />are 6 to 8 ft in N swell except 4 to 5 ft offshore of NE Florida. <br />A persistent trough resides east of the front, from 30N55W to the <br />U.S. Virgin Islands. Light to gentle winds are generally on either<br />side of the trough. Scattered showers are occurring from the NE <br />Caribbean northward to 23N on either side of the trough. Scattered<br />to locally numerous showers and moderate thunderstorms are to the<br />east of the trough, N of 20N and between 47W and 58W. This <br />activity is supported by convergent surface winds occurring ahead <br />of a broad upper-level trough across the western Atlantic. Farther<br />east, a cold front is moving into NW Africa and extends from <br />31N10W to 23N19W. Scattered showers and elevated thunderstorms are<br />occurring ahead of the front N of 19N and E of 22W. A 1029 mb <br />high is centered over the eastern Atlantic between the two frontal<br />systems, near 36N35W. The pressure gradient between the high and <br />the eastern front is producing a large area of strong N to NE <br />winds from 19N to 29N E of 34W, where seas are 8 to 12 ft in N <br />swell. Across the Atlantic waters S of 19N, the associated ridge <br />is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds between 25W and 55W,<br />where seas are 6 to 8 ft in NE swell. <br /><br />For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will drift<br />southward across the Bahamas tonight and gradually dissipate. <br />Fresh N to NE winds should continue through tomorrow night N<br />and NE and in the lee of the Bahamas. As the Bermuda High <br />following the front weakens, winds across the forecast waters <br />should diminish to moderate or weaker speeds on Thu and Thu <br />night. Remnants of the front should develop into a trough <br />northeast of the Leeward Islands and will force fresh NE winds <br />north of 27N and east of 65W from Fri morning into the weekend. <br />Looking ahead, a weak cold front may emerge off of the coast of NE<br />Florida and Georgia on Sun.<br /><br />$$<br />Stripling
Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
  • Mon, 31 Mar 2025 20:15:38 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
    502 <br />NOUS42 KNHC 312015<br />REPRPD<br />WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS<br />CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.<br />0415 PM EDT MON 31 MARCH 2025<br />SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)<br />         VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z APRIL 2025<br />         WSPOD NUMBER.....24-121<br /><br />SECOND TEST RETRANSMISSION<br /><br />I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS<br />    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.<br />    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.<br /><br />NOTE:  THIS IS THE LAST WSPOD OF THE SEASON UNLESS CONDITIONS<br />       DICTATE OTHERWISE.<br /><br />$$<br />SEF<br /><br />NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
  • Sun, 01 Dec 2024 03:00:40 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 010300<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />1000 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2024<br /><br />For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:<br /><br />Tropical cyclone activity this November was above average in terms <br />of the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes in <br />the Atlantic basin. Three named storms formed during the month, <br />including one (Rafael) that became a major hurricane. Based on a <br />30-year climatology (1991-2020), a tropical storm forms in November <br />once every year or two, and a hurricane forms once every two years.<br /><br />Rafael strengthened into a hurricane while passing near Jamaica and <br />the Cayman Islands before making landfall in western Cuba as a <br />category 3 hurricane. Elsewhere, Patty brought tropical storm <br />conditions to portions of the Azores. Sara meandered near the coast <br />of Honduras before making landfall as a tropical storm in Belize.<br /><br />Overall, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season had above-normal <br />activity in terms of the number of named storms, hurricanes, and <br />major hurricanes. In 2024, there were 18 named storms that formed in <br />the Atlantic basin, of which 11 became hurricanes and 5 strengthened <br />into major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson <br />Hurricane Wind Scale). These numbers are greater than the long-term <br />(1991-2020) averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major <br />hurricanes. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which <br />measures the strength and duration of tropical storms and <br />hurricanes, activity in the basin in 2024 was about 34 percent above <br />the long-term (1991-2020) average.<br /><br />Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the <br />National Hurricane Center website at<br />www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2024&basin=atl<br /><br />Summary Table<br /><br />Name Dates Max Wind (mph)<br />------------------------------------------------------------------<br />TS Alberto 19-20 Jun 50*<br />MH Beryl 28 Jun-9 Jul 165<br />TS Chris 30 Jun-1 Jul 45*<br />H Debby 3-9 Aug 80<br />H Ernesto 12-20 Aug 100<br />H Francine 9-12 Sep 100<br />TS Gordon 11-17 Sep 45<br />MH Helene 24-27 Sep 140<br />H Isaac 26-30 Sep 105<br />TS Joyce 27 Sep-1 Oct 50<br />MH Kirk 29 Sep-7 Oct 145<br />H Leslie 2-12 Oct 105 <br />MH Milton 5-10 Oct 180<br />TS Nadine 19-20 Oct 60<br />H Oscar 19-22 Oct 85<br />TS Patty 2-4 Nov 65<br />MH Rafael 4-10 Nov 120<br />TS Sara 14-18 Nov 50<br /><br />------------------------------------------------------------------ <br /><br />Dates are based on Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).<br />* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.<br /><br />$$<br />Hurricane Specialist Unit
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