2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

189 
WTNT35 KNHC 171739
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
200 PM AST Sun Aug 17 2025
 
...ERIN LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 68.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the southeast Bahamas.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the central Bahamas, the North Carolina
Outer Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located 
near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 68.0 West.  Erin is moving 
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  This general 
motion is expected today, followed by a gradual turn to the 
northwest and north on Monday and Tuesday.  On the forecast track, 
the core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the Turks and 
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some increase in size and strength is 
forecast during the next 48 hours.  Erin is likely to remain a 
dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane 
Hunter observations is 946 mb (27.94 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of 
heavy rainfall today across Puerto Rico. Additional rainfall of 2 to 
4 inches, with locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are expected 
across Puerto Rico through Monday, as well as the Turks and Caicos, 
and the eastern Bahamas through San Salvador Island through Tuesday. 
Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides 
or mudslides, are possible.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and 
Caicos Islands beginning tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are 
expected in the southeast Bahamas late tonight and Monday. 
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands during the next couple of days. These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United
States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of
the week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
 
STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast 
Bahamas.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large 
waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

239 
WTNT25 KNHC 171502
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052025
1500 UTC SUN AUG 17 2025
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  67.4W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  946 MB
EYE DIAMETER  40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 110SE  70SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 180SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  67.4W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N  67.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.9N  68.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.1N  70.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.4N  71.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 140SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.9N  72.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.8N  72.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.0N  72.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 170SW 170NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 34.3N  70.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 200SW 200NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 39.0N  62.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...150NE 180SE 170SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 250SW 240NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N  67.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH