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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sun, 04 Oct 2026 16:18:30 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 041618
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 51W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15
to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection extend
from 08N to 18N between 48W and the Lesser Antilles.
A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean with axis along 81W,
south of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 11N to 18N between 78W and 83.5W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues
southwestward to 10N37W to 10N48W. The ITCZ extends from 12.5N53.5W
to 12N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
wave, scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N and west of
34W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Middle to upper level diffluent flow and moisture inflow by SE
flow from the Caribbean continue to fuel scattered showers and
thunderstorms along the E Mexico offshores and over the NW Gulf
behind a pre-frontal surface trough that extends from 29.5N92.5W
to S of Tampico, Mexico. Similar shower activity is ongoing over
the NE Gulf offshore waters in association to a deep layered
trough. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are
behind the trough. Ahead of the trough, a weaker pressure gradient
support gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds will follow a trough
along the E Mexican coast to Veracruz through Tue. A ridge will
extend from the western Atlantic into north Florida through today,
supporting moderate to fresh SE to S winds and moderate seas
across much of the central and eastern Gulf. This ridge will shift
SE into midweek ahead of a slowly moving front, which will stall
over the northern Gulf. Fresh NE to E winds and building seas are
forecast N of the front, with fresh to occasionally strong NW to N
winds possible off Veracruz west of the front. Gentle to moderate
easterly winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through the
latter part of the week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are across the NW and central
Caribbean waters while moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas are moderate over the central basin and slight elsewhere. An
upper level trough over the central Caribbean is supporting a
cluster of showers and thunderstorms from 13N to 18N between 70W
and 76W.
For the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and
central Caribbean through Tue morning, except in the Gulf of
Honduras where fresh winds will prevail through Thu night, and
offshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh to strong
will pulse at night through Mon. Afterward, a cold front will move
across the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure
gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across
the basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A broad surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high NE of Bermuda
and a 1024 mb high W of the Azores near 36N44W extends across the
subtropical Atlantic waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas, except for moderate to fresh NE winds
near the Canary Islands. An upper level low north of the
Hispaniola is supporting a cluster of showers and thunderstorms.
Winds and seas are likely higher in this area of convection.
For the forecast west of 55W, weak ridging over the western
Atlantic across Bermuda to the Carolinas will shift eastward
through Mon ahead of a cold front that will stall from Bermuda to
NE Florida by mid week. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas
will follow the front, but stay over the NE coastal and offshore
waters of NE Florida through Wed. Gentle to moderate and slight
seas will persist elsewhere.
$$
KRV
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sun, 04 Oct 2026 16:18:30 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 041618
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 51W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15
to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection extend
from 08N to 18N between 48W and the Lesser Antilles.
A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean with axis along 81W,
south of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 11N to 18N between 78W and 83.5W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues
southwestward to 10N37W to 10N48W. The ITCZ extends from 12.5N53.5W
to 12N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
wave, scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N and west of
34W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Middle to upper level diffluent flow and moisture inflow by SE
flow from the Caribbean continue to fuel scattered showers and
thunderstorms along the E Mexico offshores and over the NW Gulf
behind a pre-frontal surface trough that extends from 29.5N92.5W
to S of Tampico, Mexico. Similar shower activity is ongoing over
the NE Gulf offshore waters in association to a deep layered
trough. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are
behind the trough. Ahead of the trough, a weaker pressure gradient
support gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds will follow a trough
along the E Mexican coast to Veracruz through Tue. A ridge will
extend from the western Atlantic into north Florida through today,
supporting moderate to fresh SE to S winds and moderate seas
across much of the central and eastern Gulf. This ridge will shift
SE into midweek ahead of a slowly moving front, which will stall
over the northern Gulf. Fresh NE to E winds and building seas are
forecast N of the front, with fresh to occasionally strong NW to N
winds possible off Veracruz west of the front. Gentle to moderate
easterly winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through the
latter part of the week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are across the NW and central
Caribbean waters while moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas are moderate over the central basin and slight elsewhere. An
upper level trough over the central Caribbean is supporting a
cluster of showers and thunderstorms from 13N to 18N between 70W
and 76W.
For the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and
central Caribbean through Tue morning, except in the Gulf of
Honduras where fresh winds will prevail through Thu night, and
offshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh to strong
will pulse at night through Mon. Afterward, a cold front will move
across the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure
gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across
the basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A broad surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high NE of Bermuda
and a 1024 mb high W of the Azores near 36N44W extends across the
subtropical Atlantic waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas, except for moderate to fresh NE winds
near the Canary Islands. An upper level low north of the
Hispaniola is supporting a cluster of showers and thunderstorms.
Winds and seas are likely higher in this area of convection.
For the forecast west of 55W, weak ridging over the western
Atlantic across Bermuda to the Carolinas will shift eastward
through Mon ahead of a cold front that will stall from Bermuda to
NE Florida by mid week. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas
will follow the front, but stay over the NE coastal and offshore
waters of NE Florida through Wed. Gentle to moderate and slight
seas will persist elsewhere.
$$
KRV
Active Tropical Systems
- Tue, 06 Oct 2026 05:35:20 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 04 Oct 2026 18:01:16 GMT - Sun, 04 Oct 2026 17:35:20 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 041735
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Southwestern Gulf of America:
An area of low pressure is likely to form around the middle of the
week over the southwestern Gulf of America. Although environmental
conditions are only expected to be marginally conducive, some slow
development is possible and a tropical depression could form late
this week while the system drifts northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sun, 04 Oct 2026 13:48:15 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 041348
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0950 AM EDT SUN 04 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-126
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION INTO
DEVELOPING SYSTEM NEAR 20.7N 93.7W FOR 07/1800Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
KAL/IDP
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf