2023 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

• Fri, 17 May 2024 11:37:23 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 171137
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Reinhart
  

• Fri, 17 May 2024 10:12:45 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  
  058
  AXNT20 KNHC 171008
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1205 UTC Fri May 17 2024
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  0930 UTC.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
  near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 05.5N22W. The ITCZ
  extends from 05.5N22W to 03N40W and to 03.5N52W. Scattered
  moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 09N
  between 02W and 20W, from 05N to 07N between 20W and 42W, and south
  of 08.5N between 46W and 54W.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  A cold front is across the NW Gulf of Mexico, extending from SW
  Louisiana to southern Texas. A warm front extends from offshore of
  Venice, Florida to SE Louisiana. A large area of heavy showers
  and strong thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the
  Gulf waters north of 28N, and extends inland across coastal areas
  of Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle. This storm complex is
  being supported by moist low level southerly return flow and upper
  level diffluence. The remainder of the basin is dominated by
  southerly return flow, occurring between a weak Atlantic ridge
  extending westward into the central Bahamas, and low pressure
  across east and southeast Mexico.
  
  Overnight scatterometer satellite data showed fresh to strong SE
  winds in the south-central Gulf waters, especially south of 26N
  and between 84W and 90W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft.
  Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds are evident in the rest of
  the western half of the Gulf, especially west of 90W. Seas in the
  area described are also 4-6 ft. Mariners are advised that stronger
  winds and higher seas are likely occurring near the more intense
  storms moving into the NE basin. Elsewhere in the basin, light to
  gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Areas of haze
  and smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America
  continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.
  
  For the forecast, the warm front will continue to lift northward
  and inland through late today, with strong thunderstorms ahead of
  it. The stationary front across the Texas coastal waters will
  meander there today before shifting E across the northern Gulf
  tonight through Mon, supported by a series of upper-level
  disturbances moving from W to E. This will maintain active weather
  over the northern Gulf through most of the weekend. Elsewhere,
  moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, except
  pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay
  of Campeche through Sat night. Winds will slightly weaken Sun into
  early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes. Meanwhile,
  areas of haze and smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico
  continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  A weak and narrow Atlantic ridge extends westward along 25N to the
  central Bahamas. The pressure gradient between this ridge north
  of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures in the deep tropics is
  resulting in fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras,
  where seas have built to 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly trade
  winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the south- central
  Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
  moderate seas are prevalent. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural
  fires in Central America continues across areas of the NW
  Caribbean, where smoke is reducing the visibility in the Gulf of
  Honduras.
  
  For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will sink southward to
  24N-25N through Sun night. This pattern will maintain strong
  winds in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun, reaching near gale-
  force Fri evening into Sat morning and again Sat night. Fresh to
  strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Venezuela and
  offshore Colombia through Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds are
  expected elsewhere through early next week. Meanwhile, smoke due
  to agricultural fires in Central America continues across areas of
  the northwestern Caribbean, and will continue reducing the
  visibility in the Gulf of Honduras.
  
  ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  A cold front enters the SW North Atlantic near 31N67W and
  continues southwestward to the NW Bahamas. Scattered showers and
  isolated thunderstorms are seen on satellite imagery within 90 nm
  east of the front, to the east of 73W. Moderate to fresh S-SW
  winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found ahead of the front to 60W and
  north of 28N. A weak high pressure pattern dominates the
  remainder of the western Atlantic, west of 55W, supporting light
  to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.
  
  A broad ridge over the far north Atlantic is the most prominent
  feature in the central and eastern Atlantic, sustaining moderate
  to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 20N and west of
  35W. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Fresh to locally strong
  northerly winds and seas of 7-10 ft are noted off the coast of
  Morocco. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
  prevail.
  
  For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move slowly
  eastward, and shift east of 55W by Mon. Active weather is expected
  to continue ahead of the front through Sun. Fresh southerly winds
  ahead of the front will continue through this afternoon, then
  become moderate Fri night through Sat afternoon, then diminish
  further. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are
  expected through Sun night as weak high pressure extends E to W
  along 24N-25N. A new front will sink southward into the waters
  offshore of Georgia and NE Florida early Mon and move SE and
  weaken through Tue.
  
  $$
  Stripling
  
  

• Sat, 18 May 2024 23:37:23 +0000: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. - NHC Atlantic
  The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
• Fri, 17 May 2024 11:37:23 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 171137
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Reinhart
  

• Mon, 01 Apr 2024 14:54:44 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
  

   
   000
   NOUS42 KNHC 011454
   REPRPD
   WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
   CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
   1100 AM EDT MON 01 APRIL 2024
   SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
            VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z APRIL 2024
            WSPOD NUMBER.....23-123
   
   I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   NOTE:  THIS IS THE LAST WSPOD OF THE SEASON UNLESS CONDITIONS
          DICTATE OTHERWISE.
   
   $$
   SEF
   
   NNNN
   

• Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AGXX40 KNHC 171522
  MIMATS
  
  Marine Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
  
  Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
  and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
  and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
  
  This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
  Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
  Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
  the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
  week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
  basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
  Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
  Plains.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  
  A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
  diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
  will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
  pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
  
  ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  
  A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
  will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
  drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
  pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
  an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
  with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
  
  $$
  
  .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
  coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
  telephone:
  
  .GULF OF MEXICO...
  None.
  
  .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  None.
  
  .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  None.
  
  $$
  
  *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
  
  Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
  Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
  
  For additional information, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
  
  $$
  
  .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
  

• Fri, 01 Dec 2023 12:58:54 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT30 KNHC 011258
  TWSAT
  
  Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  No tropical cyclones formed in the Atlantic basin in the month of
  November. Based on a 30-year climatology (1991-2020), a tropical
  storm forms in November once every year or two, and a hurricane
  forms once every two years. A disturbance (Potential Tropical
  Cyclone Twenty-Two) caused heavy rains and flooding across portions
  of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Hispaniola during the middle part of
  the month, but the system did not become a tropical cyclone.
  
  Overall, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season had above-normal
  activity in terms of the number of named storms but a normal amount
  of activity in terms of the number of hurricanes and major
  hurricanes. In 2023, 20 storms of at least tropical storm strength
  formed, of which 7 became hurricanes and 3 became major hurricanes
  (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).
  This compares to the long-term (1991-2020) averages of 14 named
  storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. In terms of
  Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the strength and
  duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the basin
  in 2023 was about 20 percent above average compared to the long-term
  (1991-2020) mean.
  
  Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the
  National Hurricane Center website at
  www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl
  
  Summary Table
  
  Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
  -----------------------------------------------------------
  Unnamed STS 16-17 Jan 70*
  TS Arlene 1-3 Jun 40*
  TS Bret 19-24 Jun 70*
  TS Cindy 22-26 Jun 60*
  H Don 14-24 Jul 75*
  TS Emily 20-21 Aug 50*
  MH Franklin 20 Aug- 1 Sep 150
  TS Gert 19- 4 Sep 60*
  TS Harold 21-23 Aug 50
  MH Idalia 26-31 Aug 130
  TS Jose 29 Aug- 1 Sep 60
  TS Katia 1- 4 Sep 60
  MH Lee 5-16 Sep 165
  H Margot 7-17 Sep 90
  H Nigel 15-22 Sep 100
  TS Ophelia 22-24 Sep 70
  TS Philippe 23 Sep- 6 Oct 50
  TS Rina 28 Sep- 1 Oct 50*
  TS Sean 11-15 Oct 45
  H Tammy 18-29 Oct 105
  TD Twenty-One 23-24 Oct 30
  -----------------------------------------------------------
  
  * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
  
  $$
  Hurricane Specialist Unit