SUPPORT TRACK THE TROPICS
Over the last decade plus if you appreciate the information and tracking I provide during the season along with this website which donations help keep it running please consider a one time... recurring or yearly donation if you are able to help me out...
Venmo: @TrackTheTropicsLouisiana
Website: TrackTheTropics.com/DONATE
Venmo: @TrackTheTropicsLouisiana
Website: TrackTheTropics.com/DONATE
DONATE2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Mon, 17 Nov 2025 10:16:21 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
617
AXNT20 KNHC 171016
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Nov 17 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends just offshore Africa to 12N18W. The
ITCZ stretches from 10N17W to 06N31W to 04N51W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm on either side of the ITCZ
axis.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak 1014 mb high pressure centered in the NE Gulf continues to
be the main feature in the basin, leading to light to gentle winds
over most of the area, with moderate southerly winds in the W Gulf
W of 94W. Seas are less than 2 ft, except 2 to 4 ft where the
moderate winds are ongoing.
For the forecast, high pressure building into the SE U.S. will
lead to gradually increasing SE flow over the basin, with fresh
winds developing by mid-week, especially in the NW Gulf, near a
cold front that will stall over Texas through late week. Slight
seas will build to moderate as the winds increase.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough is analyzed over the NW Caribbean, extending from
western Cuba to eastern Honduras. Scattered moderate convection
associated with this trough is present between Cuba and the
Cayman Islands. Another surface trough is in the NE Caribbean
along 65W, to the N of 14N. Scattered moderate convection is noted
E of this trough axis, impacting portions of the Leeward Islands.
Mainly light to gentle winds prevail, with locally moderate winds
within 90 nm of the south coast of Cuba, close to the
aforementioned trough. Seas are 3 ft or less, except for some 3 to
5 ft seas in N swell propagating through Atlantic passages in the
NE basin.
For the forecast, weak pressure gradient over the area will
generally maintain gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin
into early Tue. The trade winds will then increase to mostly
fresh speeds as western Atlantic high pressure expands
southeastward toward the Greater Antilles while the Colombian low
becomes evident.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front has stalled from 31N34W to 24N53W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm on either side of the front to the N of
27N. Decaying NW swell with seas to 9 ft remain behind the front
N of 28N and E of 50W. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are N of 28N
between 60W and 75W ahead the next cold front. Seas over this
area of stronger winds are in the 8 to 12 ft range in NW swell.
The Azores High dominates the remainder central and eastern
subtropical Atlantic waters. A tighter pressure gradient between
the ridge and Africa the front continues to support moderate to
fresh N to NE winds and rough seas to 9 ft between the NW coast of
Africa and the Cape Verde Islands, including the Canary Islands
and adjacent waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds dominate
waters S of 20N. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate
seas are ongoing elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will enter NW waters
the waters today, then weaken and stall Tue from around 30N60W to
the Turks and Caicos. Strong SW winds and rough seas can be
expected ahead of the front N of 29N today, with some rough seas
lingering behind the front N of 28N over NE waters until the front
dissipates Tue night. High pressure sinking southward over the
waters for the latter half of the week should bring relatively
benign conditions.
$$
Konarik
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 Nov 2025 10:16:21 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
617
AXNT20 KNHC 171016
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Nov 17 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends just offshore Africa to 12N18W. The
ITCZ stretches from 10N17W to 06N31W to 04N51W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm on either side of the ITCZ
axis.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak 1014 mb high pressure centered in the NE Gulf continues to
be the main feature in the basin, leading to light to gentle winds
over most of the area, with moderate southerly winds in the W Gulf
W of 94W. Seas are less than 2 ft, except 2 to 4 ft where the
moderate winds are ongoing.
For the forecast, high pressure building into the SE U.S. will
lead to gradually increasing SE flow over the basin, with fresh
winds developing by mid-week, especially in the NW Gulf, near a
cold front that will stall over Texas through late week. Slight
seas will build to moderate as the winds increase.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough is analyzed over the NW Caribbean, extending from
western Cuba to eastern Honduras. Scattered moderate convection
associated with this trough is present between Cuba and the
Cayman Islands. Another surface trough is in the NE Caribbean
along 65W, to the N of 14N. Scattered moderate convection is noted
E of this trough axis, impacting portions of the Leeward Islands.
Mainly light to gentle winds prevail, with locally moderate winds
within 90 nm of the south coast of Cuba, close to the
aforementioned trough. Seas are 3 ft or less, except for some 3 to
5 ft seas in N swell propagating through Atlantic passages in the
NE basin.
For the forecast, weak pressure gradient over the area will
generally maintain gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin
into early Tue. The trade winds will then increase to mostly
fresh speeds as western Atlantic high pressure expands
southeastward toward the Greater Antilles while the Colombian low
becomes evident.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front has stalled from 31N34W to 24N53W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm on either side of the front to the N of
27N. Decaying NW swell with seas to 9 ft remain behind the front
N of 28N and E of 50W. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are N of 28N
between 60W and 75W ahead the next cold front. Seas over this
area of stronger winds are in the 8 to 12 ft range in NW swell.
The Azores High dominates the remainder central and eastern
subtropical Atlantic waters. A tighter pressure gradient between
the ridge and Africa the front continues to support moderate to
fresh N to NE winds and rough seas to 9 ft between the NW coast of
Africa and the Cape Verde Islands, including the Canary Islands
and adjacent waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds dominate
waters S of 20N. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate
seas are ongoing elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will enter NW waters
the waters today, then weaken and stall Tue from around 30N60W to
the Turks and Caicos. Strong SW winds and rough seas can be
expected ahead of the front N of 29N today, with some rough seas
lingering behind the front N of 28N over NE waters until the front
dissipates Tue night. High pressure sinking southward over the
waters for the latter half of the week should bring relatively
benign conditions.
$$
Konarik
Active Tropical Systems
- Wed, 19 Nov 2025 05:30:38 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 17 Nov 2025 17:33:46 GMT - Mon, 17 Nov 2025 17:30:38 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
853
ABNT20 KNHC 171730
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Mon, 17 Nov 2025 16:36:36 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
485
NOUS42 KNHC 171636
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1135 AM EST MON 17 NOVEMBER 2025
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z NOVEMBER 2025
TCPOD NUMBER.....25-170
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
NOTE: THE ATLANTIC WINTER SEASON REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
THE PACIFIC WINTER SEASON REQUIREMENTS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY FLY AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE
21/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf