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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Thu, 18 Jun 2026 15:07:35 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 181507
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jun 18 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 24/25W, south
of 16N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is
discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.
Another Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 43W, south of
17N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is
discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 63W, south
of 17N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted S of 14N between 61 and 64W.
A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 84W, south of
18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 10N to 13N between 82W and 85W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa
near 14N17W and extends SW to near 08N23W. The ITCZ extends from
07N27W to 06N41W. It resumes from 04N45W to 04N51W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N
between 15W and 47W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A ridge extends from a 1025 mb subtropical high centered near
27N55W into the eastern Gulf, with a surface trough extending from
eastern Mexico, across the SW Gulf. The pressure gradient between
these features is supporting fresh to strong winds across much of
the Gulf. Seas are in the 4-7 ft over much of the Gulf, reaching 8
ft off the coast of Louisiana.
For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into
the Gulf region. The pressure gradient between this system and
lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico will support
fresh to strong southerly winds over the western and central Gulf,
and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf through Fri.
Expect rough seas N of 27N and offshore of the Louisiana coast
this morning to shift eastward with these winds through Thu night
before diminishing. Winds and seas will diminish basin-wide late
Fri through the weekend as weak high pressure settles over the
eastern Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends
westward along 27N-28N and across south-central Florida. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low is
supporting fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, where
seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Fresh to locally strong winds are
over the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of
4-6 ft, are across the remainder of the Caribbean.
For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will remain in place north
of the area through early next week, while weakening slightly Fri
night through Sun, as a frontal system clips the waters off NE
Florida. The pressure gradient south of the ridge will sustain
fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the
central Caribbean through the forecast period, with highest winds
and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at
fresh to strong speeds and moderate to rough seas are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Mon, pulsing briefly to near
gale- force tonight and Fri night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds
are expected elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean through
Mon night. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across SW
portions through Sat as an upper-level trough digs into the area.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A frontal trough extends from 31N33W to 26N42W. Isolated moderate
convection is in the vicinity of the trough. The rest of the
discussion waters N of 20N is dominated by high pressure anchored
by a 1025 mb subtropical high centered near 27N55W, and a 1023 mb
high centered near 32N21W. Light to gentle winds are in the
vicinity of the high pressure centers. Moderate to locally fresh
winds dominate the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are in
the 3-6 ft range.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will remain in
place through early next week, while weakening slightly Fri night
through Sun, as a frontal system clips the waters offshore of NE
Florida. The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to
locally fresh trade winds south of 22N through Sun. Moderate to
locally fresh SW winds offshore of northeast Florida to near 75W
will expand eastward to near 70W through tonight, as a weak
frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. The front is
expected to move slowly offshore early Sat and stall offshore NE
Florida by Sun, allowing the moderate to fresh SW winds to shift
eastward ahead of it across the northern waters.
$$
AL
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Thu, 18 Jun 2026 15:07:35 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 181507
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jun 18 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 24/25W, south
of 16N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is
discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.
Another Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 43W, south of
17N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is
discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 63W, south
of 17N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted S of 14N between 61 and 64W.
A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 84W, south of
18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 10N to 13N between 82W and 85W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa
near 14N17W and extends SW to near 08N23W. The ITCZ extends from
07N27W to 06N41W. It resumes from 04N45W to 04N51W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N
between 15W and 47W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A ridge extends from a 1025 mb subtropical high centered near
27N55W into the eastern Gulf, with a surface trough extending from
eastern Mexico, across the SW Gulf. The pressure gradient between
these features is supporting fresh to strong winds across much of
the Gulf. Seas are in the 4-7 ft over much of the Gulf, reaching 8
ft off the coast of Louisiana.
For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into
the Gulf region. The pressure gradient between this system and
lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico will support
fresh to strong southerly winds over the western and central Gulf,
and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf through Fri.
Expect rough seas N of 27N and offshore of the Louisiana coast
this morning to shift eastward with these winds through Thu night
before diminishing. Winds and seas will diminish basin-wide late
Fri through the weekend as weak high pressure settles over the
eastern Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends
westward along 27N-28N and across south-central Florida. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low is
supporting fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, where
seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Fresh to locally strong winds are
over the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of
4-6 ft, are across the remainder of the Caribbean.
For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will remain in place north
of the area through early next week, while weakening slightly Fri
night through Sun, as a frontal system clips the waters off NE
Florida. The pressure gradient south of the ridge will sustain
fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the
central Caribbean through the forecast period, with highest winds
and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at
fresh to strong speeds and moderate to rough seas are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Mon, pulsing briefly to near
gale- force tonight and Fri night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds
are expected elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean through
Mon night. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across SW
portions through Sat as an upper-level trough digs into the area.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A frontal trough extends from 31N33W to 26N42W. Isolated moderate
convection is in the vicinity of the trough. The rest of the
discussion waters N of 20N is dominated by high pressure anchored
by a 1025 mb subtropical high centered near 27N55W, and a 1023 mb
high centered near 32N21W. Light to gentle winds are in the
vicinity of the high pressure centers. Moderate to locally fresh
winds dominate the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are in
the 3-6 ft range.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will remain in
place through early next week, while weakening slightly Fri night
through Sun, as a frontal system clips the waters offshore of NE
Florida. The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to
locally fresh trade winds south of 22N through Sun. Moderate to
locally fresh SW winds offshore of northeast Florida to near 75W
will expand eastward to near 70W through tonight, as a weak
frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. The front is
expected to move slowly offshore early Sat and stall offshore NE
Florida by Sun, allowing the moderate to fresh SW winds to shift
eastward ahead of it across the northern waters.
$$
AL
Active Tropical Systems
- Fri, 19 Jun 2026 23:49:19 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 18 Jun 2026 16:40:12 GMT - Thu, 18 Jun 2026 11:49:19 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 181149
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Offshore East Coast of the United States (Remnants of Arthur):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
(the remnants of Arthur) are located over the southeastern United
States. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for
some subtropical or tropical development on Friday or Saturday,
as the system moves northeastward at around 15 mph, and emerges
offshore the east coast of the United States and into the Western
Atlantic Ocean.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with the potential for
widespread and life-threatening flash flooding is likely across
portions of the Southeast United States during the next day
or two. Additional information on the rainfall potential can be
found in rainfall forecasts and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks from
the Weather Prediction Center online at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.
More information on this system, including Gale Warnings, is
available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Thu, 18 Jun 2026 14:25:47 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 181425
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1025 AM EDT THU 18 JUNE 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JUNE 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-018
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf