2026 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

000
WTNT23 KNHC 291500 CCA
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082026
1500 UTC TUE SEP 29 2026

CORRECTED TO ADD 4 M SEAS
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N  45.5W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
4 M SEAS....  0NE  60SE  60SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N  45.5W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N  45.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 34.0N  44.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 33.9N  43.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.5N  41.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.3N  39.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 36.4N  37.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 37.4N  34.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N  45.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT43 KNHC 291449
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082026
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026
 
Satellite imagery this morning shows that Hanna continues as a 
sheared tropical cyclone with the low-level center mostly exposed to 
the west of the main convective area.  The cyclone also remains just 
south of a weak frontal boundary.  Based on a just received ASCAT 
overpass, the initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt. The 
scatterometer data also suggests that the circulation is becoming 
less well defined as it interacts with the frontal boundary.
 
The initial motion is now 125/10 kt.  There is little change to the 
track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory.  Hanna is 
embedded in the flow between a broad mid-latitude trough to its 
northeast and a larger subtropical ridge to its south. This synoptic 
pattern should result in a southeastward or east-southward motion 
over the next 12-24 h with a gradual decrease in forward speed. An 
east-northeastward motion is then expected as the cyclone becomes 
vertically shallow and influenced by a low-level ridge centered 
south of the Azores.  The new forecast track is similar to the 
previous track and is in best agreement with the HFIP Corrected 
Consensus model.

Hanna should gradually weaken due to shear and dry air entrainment, 
and the system is likely to stop producing convection and 
degenerate to a remnant low between 36-48 h based on global model 
simulated satellite imagery. The system is expected to weaken to a 
trough by 96 h.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 34.6N  45.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 34.0N  44.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 33.9N  43.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 34.5N  41.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 35.3N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  02/0000Z 36.4N  37.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/1200Z 37.4N  34.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

000
WTNT41 KNHC 291449
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026
 
Fay remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center 
completely exposed and all the deep convection sheared well to the 
southwest. This remaining convection continues to be displaced 
further and further away from the low-level center. Recent satellite 
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS and TAFB have trended downward to 
around 30 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity for this 
advisory is lowered to 30 kt, making Fay a tropical depression once 
again.

Fay is moving southwestward, or 225/10 kt, steered by a mid-level 
ridge located over the central Atlantic. This general motion is 
expected to continue throughout the remainder of the forecast 
period. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update to 
the previous advisory and remains in good agreement with HCCA 
corrected-consensus aid.

The depression is expected to continue to deal with increasing 
vertical wind shear, which should limit convection near the 
low-level center. As Fay moves into a more stable airmass, global 
models are in good agreement that the cyclone will become completely 
devoid of deep convection by Wednesday. The latest NHC intensity 
forecast shows the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low at 
that time, before opening into a trough shortly thereafter. Given 
the increasingly hostile environment, it is entirely possible that 
the system could become post-tropical or dissipate even earlier than 
currently forecast.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 24.2N  47.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 23.4N  48.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 22.8N  51.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/0000Z 22.5N  53.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly