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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sat, 10 Oct 2026 17:00:39 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 101700
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Oct 10 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed from 07N to 13.5N between 29W and 37W.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W-84W, south of 22N,
moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 09N to 19.5N between 80W and 85W, as the wave continues to
interact with an upper level low center directly overhead.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17.5N16W and continues southwestward to 11.5N26W
to near 08.5N44W. The ITCZ extends from 09.5N51W to 10N63W.
Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is
occurring from 06.5N to 17.5N E of 26W to the African coast, and
from 07.5N to 14N between 37W and 46W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08.5N to 10.5N between 60W and 63W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Post-tropical cyclone Isaias is now over central Alabama moving
northward. A cold front has formed over the central Gulf,
extending from Isaias through the western Florida Panhandle to
near 25N93W. Divergence aloft and tropical moisture embedded in
southerly flow sustain a 90 nm wide line of showers and
thunderstorms from the Florida Big Bend near 30N83.5W to 24.5N87W.
Fresh to strong southerly winds are occurring along and E of this
line of weather, and producing seas of 5 to 9 ft across the
waters from the line eastward to the Florida coastal waters,
highest well offshore of Tampa Bay. Dry air dominates the rest of
the basin allowing for generally fair weather conditions, except
for scattered showers across the Mexican coastal waters as
moderate cyclonic winds flow parallel to the coastline. NE swell
generated from the western side of Isaias as it move inland last
night is propagating across the north central and western Gulf S
of 28N, where sea are 6 to 10 ft, highest near 26.5N92W.
For the forecast, the remnants of Isaias will continue to move
northward away from the area. Winds are rapidly diminishing across
the Gulf, and rough seas in S swell over the northeast Gulf will
continue to subside this afternoon. Large NE swell over the west-
central Gulf will subside through tonight. Cooler and drier air
is wrapping around the remnant low of Isaias, developing a cold
front from near Destin, Florida to the central Gulf. This front
will move across the southeast Gulf through mid week, then
lifting northward as a dissipating warm front over the western
Gulf. Looking ahead, high pressure will build behind the front
over the north-central Gulf, supporting E to SE winds and moderate
seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast by mid week, and
gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active
tropical wave in the western Caribbean.
A very modest pressure gradient continues across the basin today,
as high pressure is centered well N and NE of the region. The
current pattern is forcing moderate to fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas to 7 ft across much of the central basin, with
strong winds along the coast of Colombia. Moderate E winds
prevail across the eastern Caribbean, while gentle to moderate SE
winds and slight seas are seen across the NW basin.
For the forecast, high pressure well north of the area will
support moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the
eastern and central Caribbean through the early part of the week,
with fresh to strong E winds and rough seas off Colombia. These
winds and seas will diminish through mid week as the high pressure
shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf of
America.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front enters the central Atlantic waters near 31N52W and
continues southwestward to 26.5N62W, then continues as a
stationary front to 31N70W and then remains north of the area
and into South Carolina. Divergence aloft and tropical moisture
pushed northward by former Isaias sustain scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms N of 24N and W of 74.5W. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds prevail S of 24N between 60W and 70W and then veer
SE to S through the Bahamas and waters W of 70W. Seas are
generally 4 to 6 ft across this area. A surface trough is
analyzed from 28N54W to 20N59W. An upper level low to its S and
shifting W into the Lesser Antilles, and producing across moderate
convection from 10N to 20N between 48W and 62W.
A broad 1028 mb high pressure system near the Azores extends
southwestward to the surface trough along 56W and are combining
to support moderate to locally strong NE to E winds and seas of
6-9 ft north of the monsoon trough to 26N, and E of 50W. Moderate
to fresh SW winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring south of the
monsoon trough and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N53W to
27N60W, then becomes a stationary front to 30N70W, and then a
warm front continues to the SC coast. Divergence aloft and
tropical moisture results in scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms west of 74W. The cold front will continue to move
east of the area through Mon, ahead of another cold front moving
off the NE Florida coast early Mon. The front will reach from
31N75W to near Jupiter Inlet, Florida by early Tue, and then start
to stall and dissipate from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by
early Wed.
$$
Stripling
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sat, 10 Oct 2026 17:00:39 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 101700
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Oct 10 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed from 07N to 13.5N between 29W and 37W.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W-84W, south of 22N,
moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 09N to 19.5N between 80W and 85W, as the wave continues to
interact with an upper level low center directly overhead.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17.5N16W and continues southwestward to 11.5N26W
to near 08.5N44W. The ITCZ extends from 09.5N51W to 10N63W.
Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is
occurring from 06.5N to 17.5N E of 26W to the African coast, and
from 07.5N to 14N between 37W and 46W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08.5N to 10.5N between 60W and 63W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Post-tropical cyclone Isaias is now over central Alabama moving
northward. A cold front has formed over the central Gulf,
extending from Isaias through the western Florida Panhandle to
near 25N93W. Divergence aloft and tropical moisture embedded in
southerly flow sustain a 90 nm wide line of showers and
thunderstorms from the Florida Big Bend near 30N83.5W to 24.5N87W.
Fresh to strong southerly winds are occurring along and E of this
line of weather, and producing seas of 5 to 9 ft across the
waters from the line eastward to the Florida coastal waters,
highest well offshore of Tampa Bay. Dry air dominates the rest of
the basin allowing for generally fair weather conditions, except
for scattered showers across the Mexican coastal waters as
moderate cyclonic winds flow parallel to the coastline. NE swell
generated from the western side of Isaias as it move inland last
night is propagating across the north central and western Gulf S
of 28N, where sea are 6 to 10 ft, highest near 26.5N92W.
For the forecast, the remnants of Isaias will continue to move
northward away from the area. Winds are rapidly diminishing across
the Gulf, and rough seas in S swell over the northeast Gulf will
continue to subside this afternoon. Large NE swell over the west-
central Gulf will subside through tonight. Cooler and drier air
is wrapping around the remnant low of Isaias, developing a cold
front from near Destin, Florida to the central Gulf. This front
will move across the southeast Gulf through mid week, then
lifting northward as a dissipating warm front over the western
Gulf. Looking ahead, high pressure will build behind the front
over the north-central Gulf, supporting E to SE winds and moderate
seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast by mid week, and
gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active
tropical wave in the western Caribbean.
A very modest pressure gradient continues across the basin today,
as high pressure is centered well N and NE of the region. The
current pattern is forcing moderate to fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas to 7 ft across much of the central basin, with
strong winds along the coast of Colombia. Moderate E winds
prevail across the eastern Caribbean, while gentle to moderate SE
winds and slight seas are seen across the NW basin.
For the forecast, high pressure well north of the area will
support moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the
eastern and central Caribbean through the early part of the week,
with fresh to strong E winds and rough seas off Colombia. These
winds and seas will diminish through mid week as the high pressure
shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf of
America.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front enters the central Atlantic waters near 31N52W and
continues southwestward to 26.5N62W, then continues as a
stationary front to 31N70W and then remains north of the area
and into South Carolina. Divergence aloft and tropical moisture
pushed northward by former Isaias sustain scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms N of 24N and W of 74.5W. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds prevail S of 24N between 60W and 70W and then veer
SE to S through the Bahamas and waters W of 70W. Seas are
generally 4 to 6 ft across this area. A surface trough is
analyzed from 28N54W to 20N59W. An upper level low to its S and
shifting W into the Lesser Antilles, and producing across moderate
convection from 10N to 20N between 48W and 62W.
A broad 1028 mb high pressure system near the Azores extends
southwestward to the surface trough along 56W and are combining
to support moderate to locally strong NE to E winds and seas of
6-9 ft north of the monsoon trough to 26N, and E of 50W. Moderate
to fresh SW winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring south of the
monsoon trough and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N53W to
27N60W, then becomes a stationary front to 30N70W, and then a
warm front continues to the SC coast. Divergence aloft and
tropical moisture results in scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms west of 74W. The cold front will continue to move
east of the area through Mon, ahead of another cold front moving
off the NE Florida coast early Mon. The front will reach from
31N75W to near Jupiter Inlet, Florida by early Tue, and then start
to stall and dissipate from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by
early Wed.
$$
Stripling
Active Tropical Systems
- Sat, 10 Oct 2026 20:52:26 +0000: Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Graphics - NHC Atlantic
- Sat, 10 Oct 2026 20:38:19 +0000: Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 17 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026000 WTNT44 KWNH 102038 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Discussion Number 17 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL092026 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026 Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias will continue across the Southern Appalachians and Southeast today. Considerable flash and urban flooding will be possible. Landslides are also possible across the Southern Appalachians. 2. Strong wind gusts continue to pose a threat across the southeastern United States today, particularly near the southern Appalachians. Scattered power outages and downed trees and powerlines may occur, with the risk highest in elevated terrain. 3. Swells from Isaias will continue to affect much of the Gulf coasts of the United States, Mexico, and western Cuba this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 4. A couple of tornadoes are possible today across eastern Georgia and the Carolinas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 33.5N 86.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 11/0600Z 35.2N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 11/1800Z 37.9N 81.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roth
- Sat, 10 Oct 2026 20:37:18 +0000: Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 17 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026000 WTNT24 KWNH 102037 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL092026 2100 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 86.9W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 4 M SEAS.... 0NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 86.9W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 87.1W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 35.2N 86.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 37.9N 81.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.5N 86.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROTH
- Sat, 10 Oct 2026 20:37:18 +0000: Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Public Advisory Number 17 - NHC Atlantic
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026 - Sat, 10 Oct 2026 20:37:18 +0000: Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias (AT4/AL092026) - NHC Atlantic
...FLASH FLOODING RISK CONTINUES WITH ISAIAS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 the center of Isaias was located near 33.5, -86.9 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sat, 10 Oct 2026 14:01:49 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
504
NOUS42 KNHC 101401
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1005 AM EDT SAT 10 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-132
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf