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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Thu, 24 Sep 2026 10:26:54 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
388
AXNT20 KNHC 241026
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Sep 24 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Fay: Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N
40.5W at 24/0900 UTC or 830 nm WSW of the Azores, moving W at 6
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas to
11 ft are occurring within 75 nm across the NW semicircle.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120
nm NE and 45 nm SW quadrants. Fay is forecast to maintain minimal
tropical storm strength and move westward through Fri morning then
begin to weaken through this weekend.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.
Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): An area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands is accompanied by a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms mainly E of 26W. A tropical wave accompanies this
low. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression
later today or on Friday while it moves northwestward to
northward. However, strong upper-level winds should end the
opportunity for development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo
Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty
winds, areas of heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible there
by Friday. This system has a medium chance of formation in the
next 48 hours.
Heavy Rainfall in Central America: A mid to upper-level trough
currently extends from the eastern Gulf of America across the
Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while relatively warm sea
surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are present.
An elongated low level trough will prevail across this area during
the next several days, and aid in funneling enhanced tropical
moisture across Central America and the western Caribbean,
supporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat the 26th. There
is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest
rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme
southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala,
western Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as
well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, heavy
rainfall is ongoing from northern Honduras, E of 87W, north-
northeastward across the Cayman Islands and into the southern
coastal waters of Cuba, and across Andros Island and the
remainder of the NW Bahamas W of 75W. Heavy rainfall across these
regions will create the possibility of life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as
well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center
for more information.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
See Special Features section above for information on a tropical
wave in the far eastern Atlantic along 20N that has potential for
tropical formation.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 47W, S of 13W,
moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 60 nm of the wave axis along the monsoon trough from
09N to 11N.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 14N
into southern Venezuela, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted S of 12N between 60W and 64W, while
numerous moderate to strong convection is near the wave axis well
inland from 01N to 08N.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 20N16W and meanders
southward to 1008 low pressure near 12N21W then continues
westward to 10.5N47W. The ITCZ extends from 08N49W continues to
the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the boundary
and E of 32W, and from 09N to 13N and E of 49W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Deep-layered upper troughing continues across the eastern Gulf
from the coastal Carolinas across N Florida to the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Multi-layered clouds and scattered moderate convection
is noted from the Yucatan Peninsula northeastward across the
Straits of Florida and south Florida and into the Bahamas. To the
west, widely scattered showers are occurring along a surface
trough across southwest portions from Cabo Rojo, Mexico the the
central Bay of Campeche. At the surface, weak high pressure
prevails across the northern Gulf, ahead of an approaching cold
front extending just inland across the northern Gulf states and
across the coastal waters of the Florida Big Bend. Gentle to
moderate E-NE to E winds dominate the Gulf N of 25N, with 2-4 ft
seas. Light to gentle winds prevail south of 25N, except for
moderate N to NE winds along the NW coast of the Yucatan.
For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will generate gentle
to moderate winds across the remainder of the basin through
today. The upper-level trough will support scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at
least the next couple of days. The front is forecast to progress
across the E Gulf tonight and Fri, then stall over the SE Gulf
this weekend.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see Special Features section above for information on
upper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean,
and expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of
Central America into the weekend.
To the east, deep-layered low pressure extends from the weak
pressure pattern prevails from the central Atlantic southwestward
to northern Venezuela. A low level trough is moving across Puerto
Rico and interacting with the upper trough to produce scattered
showers dotting the waters surrounding Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Island and portions of the eastern Caribbean. A tropical wave is
across the southeast Caribbean and mostly impacting interior
portions of Venezuela with numerous strong showers and
thunderstorms.
At the surface, high pressure across the central Atlantic extends
a weak ridge into the Bahamas, producing a weak pressure gradient
across the Caribbean basin. Moderate trades prevail across most
of the basin S of 16N and E of 79W, while fresh to strong winds
are S of 13.5N to the coasts of NW Venezuela and extreme NE
Colombia. Seas in these winds are 4 to 7 ft, and 3 to 5 ft in the
moderate winds. Outside of convection, light to gentle winds and
slight seas prevail elsewhere across the SW and NW Caribbean.
For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will generate
moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle
to moderate winds elsewhere. The upper-level trough will support
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W
Caribbean for the next couple of days.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See Special Features section above for information on Tropical
Storm Fay over the central Atlantic well east-southeast of
Bermuda.
A deep-layered upper trough extending from the middle Atlantic
states of the U.S. S-SW across the eastern Gulf of America
continues to support scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms from the NW Caribbean across the NW and central
Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters. Abundant low-level tropical
moisture is across much of the Atlantic W of 68W, trapped to the
south of an approaching front offshore of the SE U.S. and is
interacting with the upper trough. A surface trough is analyzed
within this convection across the NW Bahamas through the Straits
of Florida. A weak frontal boundary has become stationary across
the NW waters from 31N75W to northern Florida. Moderate to fresh
N-NE winds are filling in behind this front W of 75W, building
seas to 5-7 ft. Another upper-level low is drifting westward near
24N54W, and extends a trough SW across the eastern Caribbean.
This feature is interacting with a surface trough resulting in an
area of scattered moderate convection from 21N to 26.5N between
49W and 57W. Outside of this convection, a weak pressure gradient
continues across much of the Atlantic, as high pressure remains
centered across the far NE Atlantic offshore of Europe. This
pattern is sustaining gentle to moderate trades S of 20N and
variable light to gentle winds elsewhere W of 35W, except for
moderate SE to S winds over the area N of 30N between 60W and 70W.
Seas are 2 to 5 ft W of 60W, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere across the
basin. However, swell generated from Tropical Storm Fay is
producing seas of 6 to 11 ft N of 27N between 36W and 43W.
For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will support
gentle to moderate trades across forecast waters through tonight.
An upper-level trough will produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms west of 65W for the next couple of days. Deepening
low pressure across the western Atlantic will push a frontal
boundary off the SE United States coast late tonight. The front
will shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the straits of
Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. Fresh to strong winds
and large N to NE swell will follow the front on Thu and Fri,
before beginning to slowly subside Sat through Sun.
$$
ERA
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Thu, 24 Sep 2026 10:26:54 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
388
AXNT20 KNHC 241026
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Sep 24 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Fay: Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N
40.5W at 24/0900 UTC or 830 nm WSW of the Azores, moving W at 6
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas to
11 ft are occurring within 75 nm across the NW semicircle.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120
nm NE and 45 nm SW quadrants. Fay is forecast to maintain minimal
tropical storm strength and move westward through Fri morning then
begin to weaken through this weekend.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.
Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): An area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands is accompanied by a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms mainly E of 26W. A tropical wave accompanies this
low. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression
later today or on Friday while it moves northwestward to
northward. However, strong upper-level winds should end the
opportunity for development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo
Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty
winds, areas of heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible there
by Friday. This system has a medium chance of formation in the
next 48 hours.
Heavy Rainfall in Central America: A mid to upper-level trough
currently extends from the eastern Gulf of America across the
Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while relatively warm sea
surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are present.
An elongated low level trough will prevail across this area during
the next several days, and aid in funneling enhanced tropical
moisture across Central America and the western Caribbean,
supporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat the 26th. There
is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest
rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme
southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala,
western Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as
well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, heavy
rainfall is ongoing from northern Honduras, E of 87W, north-
northeastward across the Cayman Islands and into the southern
coastal waters of Cuba, and across Andros Island and the
remainder of the NW Bahamas W of 75W. Heavy rainfall across these
regions will create the possibility of life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as
well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center
for more information.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
See Special Features section above for information on a tropical
wave in the far eastern Atlantic along 20N that has potential for
tropical formation.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 47W, S of 13W,
moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 60 nm of the wave axis along the monsoon trough from
09N to 11N.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 14N
into southern Venezuela, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted S of 12N between 60W and 64W, while
numerous moderate to strong convection is near the wave axis well
inland from 01N to 08N.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 20N16W and meanders
southward to 1008 low pressure near 12N21W then continues
westward to 10.5N47W. The ITCZ extends from 08N49W continues to
the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the boundary
and E of 32W, and from 09N to 13N and E of 49W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Deep-layered upper troughing continues across the eastern Gulf
from the coastal Carolinas across N Florida to the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Multi-layered clouds and scattered moderate convection
is noted from the Yucatan Peninsula northeastward across the
Straits of Florida and south Florida and into the Bahamas. To the
west, widely scattered showers are occurring along a surface
trough across southwest portions from Cabo Rojo, Mexico the the
central Bay of Campeche. At the surface, weak high pressure
prevails across the northern Gulf, ahead of an approaching cold
front extending just inland across the northern Gulf states and
across the coastal waters of the Florida Big Bend. Gentle to
moderate E-NE to E winds dominate the Gulf N of 25N, with 2-4 ft
seas. Light to gentle winds prevail south of 25N, except for
moderate N to NE winds along the NW coast of the Yucatan.
For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will generate gentle
to moderate winds across the remainder of the basin through
today. The upper-level trough will support scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at
least the next couple of days. The front is forecast to progress
across the E Gulf tonight and Fri, then stall over the SE Gulf
this weekend.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see Special Features section above for information on
upper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean,
and expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of
Central America into the weekend.
To the east, deep-layered low pressure extends from the weak
pressure pattern prevails from the central Atlantic southwestward
to northern Venezuela. A low level trough is moving across Puerto
Rico and interacting with the upper trough to produce scattered
showers dotting the waters surrounding Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Island and portions of the eastern Caribbean. A tropical wave is
across the southeast Caribbean and mostly impacting interior
portions of Venezuela with numerous strong showers and
thunderstorms.
At the surface, high pressure across the central Atlantic extends
a weak ridge into the Bahamas, producing a weak pressure gradient
across the Caribbean basin. Moderate trades prevail across most
of the basin S of 16N and E of 79W, while fresh to strong winds
are S of 13.5N to the coasts of NW Venezuela and extreme NE
Colombia. Seas in these winds are 4 to 7 ft, and 3 to 5 ft in the
moderate winds. Outside of convection, light to gentle winds and
slight seas prevail elsewhere across the SW and NW Caribbean.
For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will generate
moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle
to moderate winds elsewhere. The upper-level trough will support
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W
Caribbean for the next couple of days.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See Special Features section above for information on Tropical
Storm Fay over the central Atlantic well east-southeast of
Bermuda.
A deep-layered upper trough extending from the middle Atlantic
states of the U.S. S-SW across the eastern Gulf of America
continues to support scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms from the NW Caribbean across the NW and central
Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters. Abundant low-level tropical
moisture is across much of the Atlantic W of 68W, trapped to the
south of an approaching front offshore of the SE U.S. and is
interacting with the upper trough. A surface trough is analyzed
within this convection across the NW Bahamas through the Straits
of Florida. A weak frontal boundary has become stationary across
the NW waters from 31N75W to northern Florida. Moderate to fresh
N-NE winds are filling in behind this front W of 75W, building
seas to 5-7 ft. Another upper-level low is drifting westward near
24N54W, and extends a trough SW across the eastern Caribbean.
This feature is interacting with a surface trough resulting in an
area of scattered moderate convection from 21N to 26.5N between
49W and 57W. Outside of this convection, a weak pressure gradient
continues across much of the Atlantic, as high pressure remains
centered across the far NE Atlantic offshore of Europe. This
pattern is sustaining gentle to moderate trades S of 20N and
variable light to gentle winds elsewhere W of 35W, except for
moderate SE to S winds over the area N of 30N between 60W and 70W.
Seas are 2 to 5 ft W of 60W, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere across the
basin. However, swell generated from Tropical Storm Fay is
producing seas of 6 to 11 ft N of 27N between 36W and 43W.
For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will support
gentle to moderate trades across forecast waters through tonight.
An upper-level trough will produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms west of 65W for the next couple of days. Deepening
low pressure across the western Atlantic will push a frontal
boundary off the SE United States coast late tonight. The front
will shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the straits of
Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. Fresh to strong winds
and large N to NE swell will follow the front on Thu and Fri,
before beginning to slowly subside Sat through Sun.
$$
ERA
Active Tropical Systems
- Thu, 24 Sep 2026 11:32:48 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 241132
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.
Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could
become a short-lived tropical depression or a tropical storm later
today or on Friday while it moves northwestward to northward.
Increasing upper-level winds, however, should prevent further
development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands
should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of
heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible over the islands by
Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fay are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.
$$
Forecaster Roberts - Thu, 24 Sep 2026 09:22:53 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Graphics - NHC Atlantic
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 24 Sep 2026 09:22:53 GMT - Thu, 24 Sep 2026 08:35:19 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 17 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 900 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026000 WTNT41 KNHC 240835 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 Convection has continued to burst in pulsing bands around the low-level circulation of Fay this morning. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain around 30-35 kt, which is consistent with the scatterometer pass from the previous advisory. Based on these estimates and the relatively steady state of the convective organization, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. The storm is estimated to be moving at an estimated motion 270/6 kt. A generally westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected to continue during the next few days while Fay is steered along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge located to the north. The NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, as the track model guidance remains tightly clustered. Fay is traversing sea surface temperatures around 27-28C in an environment of low vertical wind shear. However, the system is embedded within a dry air mass, which should prevent significant strengthening. In about 24-48 hours, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase, which should cause the system to gradually weaken and limit deep convection. At that time, Fay is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 29.8N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 29.9N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 29.9N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 29.8N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 29.6N 44.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 29.6N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0600Z 29.8N 45.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
- Thu, 24 Sep 2026 08:34:18 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2026000 FONT11 KNHC 240834 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY - Thu, 24 Sep 2026 08:34:18 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 17 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 900 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026000 WTNT31 KNHC 240834 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 ...FAY MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 40.5W ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 40.5 West. Fay is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A generally westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so, with gradual weakening expected thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Wed, 23 Sep 2026 16:28:06 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
271
NOUS42 KNHC 231628
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT WED 23 SEPTEMBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-116
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 78
A. 25/0000Z A. 25/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 0115E CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0215E CYCLONE
C. 24/2200Z C. 25/0330Z
D. 15.7N 155.2W D. 16.2N 155.0W
E. 24/2330Z TO 25/0300Z E. 25/0500Z TO 25/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON TD 15-E.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX OF HURRICANE POLO AT
26/1800Z.
4. REMARKS:
A. THE NOAA 42 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION TASKED IN TCPOD
26-115 FOR THE HURRICANE POLO 23/1800Z REQUIREMENT WILL
NOT BE FLOWN.
B. THE TEAL 71 FIX MISSION TASKED IN TCPOD 26-115 FOR THE POLO
24/0600Z REQUIREMENT WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 23/1315Z.
C. NOAA 42 MAY CONDUCT A 8-HOUR RESEARCH MISSION INTO
HURRICANE POLO ON THURSDAY, DEPARTING KHRL AT 24/1300Z.
DURING THE MISSION, FOUR SMALL UAS ARE PLANNED FOR RELEASE
WITHIN THE STORM ENVIRONMENT. THEY WILL OPERATE AT OR BELOW
5,000 FT FOR ABOUT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf