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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Tue, 15 Sep 2026 15:43:29 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 151543
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Sep 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1543 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A well defined tropical wave is along 56W, south of 21N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Moderate to fresh E winds along with seas
4 to 6 ft are found in the vicinity of the wave. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 11N to 21N
and between 51W and 59W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues
to 07N45W. The ITCZ extends from 07N45W to 10N54W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 20N
and east of 26W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the
eastern Gulf waters and off Veracruz. A weak high pressure over
the N Gulf supports moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in
the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight
seas prevail.
For the forecast, a strong high pressure over the eastern United
States will build southward behind a weakening cold front that
will spread across the eastern Gulf waters. The tighter pressure
gradient will support fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and rough
seas starting in the NE Gulf tonight and spreading over the
northern Gulf waters through Thu night. Elsewhere, a diurnal
trough will move westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening through Thu night, bringing nightly pulses of fresh to
locally strong NE winds. Conditions will improve across the basin
Fri, allowing for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas during the weekend.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The interaction between an large upper-level low pressure system
over the north-central Caribbean and tropical moisture support
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of Puerto Rico.
This environment is also generating a few showers in the eastern
Caribbean, bringing some rain to Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands.
High pressure north of the area sustains fresh to strong easterly
trade winds and moderate to rough seas across much of the central
Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas
are occurring in the eastern Caribbean, Windward Passage and lee
of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.
For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between the subtropical
ridge located north of the islands and lower pressures in
Colombia will support fresh to locally near gale-force easterly
trade winds and moderate to rough seas across much of the central
Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere from 11N to
18N. These conditions will persist through the workweek.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
are expected, except moderate to fresh mainly in the evenings near
the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba through midweek. Winds may
diminish across the basin by the end of the week into the upcoming
weekend as the pressures gradient relaxes, with seas also
slightly subsiding.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A pre-frontal trough is noted ahead of an approaching cold front
over the NW waters producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms north of 27.5N and between 68W and 76W. Meanwhile,
a large upper-level low over and east of the SE Bahamas is
supporting scattered showers south of 26N and between 61W and
72W. High pressure dominates the rest of the SW North Atlantic,
sustaining moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate.
Another upper-level low over the central Atlantic interacts with a
surface trough analyzed along 51.5W and north of 26N, producing
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 26N and
between 46W and 54W. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become more conducive for development in a few days, and a
tropical depression could form late this week as the system moves
slowly west-northwestward over the subtropical Atlantic. The
system has a medium chance of formation over the next 7 days. A
strong subtropical ridge centered north of the Azores extends
southward into the central and eastern Atlantic, supporting
moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas between 25W
and 53.5W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front is approaching the
waters off NE Florida and then will become stationary from Bermuda
to the NW Bahamas into Wed. A tight pressure gradient between the
building ridge over the eastern United States and the front will
result in fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas to build to
rough N of the Bahamas and W of 70W through early Thu. Conditions
will improve later Thu into Fri. During the middle to later
portion of the week, a trough of low pressure is forecast to move
west- northwestward into the NE portion of the waters, bringing
thunderstorms while also weakening the high and pressure gradient.
$$
KRV
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Tue, 15 Sep 2026 15:43:29 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 151543
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Sep 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1543 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A well defined tropical wave is along 56W, south of 21N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Moderate to fresh E winds along with seas
4 to 6 ft are found in the vicinity of the wave. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 11N to 21N
and between 51W and 59W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues
to 07N45W. The ITCZ extends from 07N45W to 10N54W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 20N
and east of 26W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the
eastern Gulf waters and off Veracruz. A weak high pressure over
the N Gulf supports moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in
the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight
seas prevail.
For the forecast, a strong high pressure over the eastern United
States will build southward behind a weakening cold front that
will spread across the eastern Gulf waters. The tighter pressure
gradient will support fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and rough
seas starting in the NE Gulf tonight and spreading over the
northern Gulf waters through Thu night. Elsewhere, a diurnal
trough will move westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening through Thu night, bringing nightly pulses of fresh to
locally strong NE winds. Conditions will improve across the basin
Fri, allowing for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas during the weekend.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The interaction between an large upper-level low pressure system
over the north-central Caribbean and tropical moisture support
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of Puerto Rico.
This environment is also generating a few showers in the eastern
Caribbean, bringing some rain to Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands.
High pressure north of the area sustains fresh to strong easterly
trade winds and moderate to rough seas across much of the central
Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas
are occurring in the eastern Caribbean, Windward Passage and lee
of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.
For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between the subtropical
ridge located north of the islands and lower pressures in
Colombia will support fresh to locally near gale-force easterly
trade winds and moderate to rough seas across much of the central
Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere from 11N to
18N. These conditions will persist through the workweek.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
are expected, except moderate to fresh mainly in the evenings near
the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba through midweek. Winds may
diminish across the basin by the end of the week into the upcoming
weekend as the pressures gradient relaxes, with seas also
slightly subsiding.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A pre-frontal trough is noted ahead of an approaching cold front
over the NW waters producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms north of 27.5N and between 68W and 76W. Meanwhile,
a large upper-level low over and east of the SE Bahamas is
supporting scattered showers south of 26N and between 61W and
72W. High pressure dominates the rest of the SW North Atlantic,
sustaining moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate.
Another upper-level low over the central Atlantic interacts with a
surface trough analyzed along 51.5W and north of 26N, producing
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 26N and
between 46W and 54W. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become more conducive for development in a few days, and a
tropical depression could form late this week as the system moves
slowly west-northwestward over the subtropical Atlantic. The
system has a medium chance of formation over the next 7 days. A
strong subtropical ridge centered north of the Azores extends
southward into the central and eastern Atlantic, supporting
moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas between 25W
and 53.5W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front is approaching the
waters off NE Florida and then will become stationary from Bermuda
to the NW Bahamas into Wed. A tight pressure gradient between the
building ridge over the eastern United States and the front will
result in fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas to build to
rough N of the Bahamas and W of 70W through early Thu. Conditions
will improve later Thu into Fri. During the middle to later
portion of the week, a trough of low pressure is forecast to move
west- northwestward into the NE portion of the waters, bringing
thunderstorms while also weakening the high and pressure gradient.
$$
KRV
Active Tropical Systems
- Wed, 16 Sep 2026 23:05:44 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 15 Sep 2026 17:10:06 GMT - Tue, 15 Sep 2026 11:05:44 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 151105
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located well east-southeast of Bermuda
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development in a few days, and a tropical depression could form late
this week as the system moves slowly westward to west-northwestward
over the subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Tue, 15 Sep 2026 13:01:06 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 151259
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT TUE 15 SEPTEMBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-107
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf