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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Wed, 04 Nov 2026 04:02:06 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
279
AXNT20 KNHC 040401
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Nov 4 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A sharp trough is analyzed this
evening from 26N65W to 22N68W. This development is associated
with an upper trough reaching from 32N70W through central Florida.
Recent buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data showed
fresh to strong NE to E winds between the trough and 1027 mb high
pressure over the western Atlantic near 37N65W. This pattern is
supporting a weak shear line along 25N. Concurrent altimeter data
showed 8-11 ft seas between the Bahamas and Bermuda. As the low
develops through Wed, the pressure gradient is expected to yield
near-gale to gale-force NE to E winds beginning Wed afternoon,
roughly over the waters from 29N to 31N between 63W and 69W. Seas
are expected to build to 10-16 ft (3-5 m) with these winds through
Thu as the low pressure drifts east- northeastward. The low
pressure could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this
week as it continues to shift slowly E-NE across the sub-tropical
Atlantic. Gale-force winds may continue across northern portions
of this expected broad low pressure into late Sat.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html
Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing
over the northwestern Caribbean will interact with enhanced low-
level moisture associated with broad cyclonic flow over the
western Caribbean during the next several days. This will favor
heavy precipitation developing across Central America, northern
South America, as well as Jamaica tonight through Friday. The
heaviest precipitation is expected across southern and western
portions of Costa Rica, Panama, and Nicaragua, with the bulk of
precipitation occurring today through Thursday. Heavy rainfall
will lead to possible life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the
International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic from coast of Sierra
Leone near 11N14.5W, and continues southwestward to 08N20W to
06N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N25N
to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to
10N between 20W and 45W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A broad trough extends from the northeast Gulf to the central
Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas to 4 ft are active
across the Florida Big Bend area between the trough and 1027 mb
high pressure off Virginia. Light to gentle breezes and 1-3 ft
are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, a cold front is entering the NW Gulf and will
continue moving across the NW Gulf through Wed, then weaken and
dissipate Wed night. Moderate northwest to north winds are
expected west of the front. Another cold front is expected to move
across the Gulf waters Fri through Sun night. Fresh to strong
north winds will develop west of the front and west of 93W Sat and
Sun, with moderate north to northeast winds elsewhere behind the
front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Deep-layer troughing across the northwestern Caribbean supports
scattered moderate to strong convection from 10N to 18N between
70W and 82W. A broad 1009 mb low pressure area is centered over
the southwest Caribbean near 12N82W. This pattern is supporting
gentle to moderate E winds over the eastern Caribbean with 3-5 ft
seas, and light breezes over the western Caribbean with 1-3 ft
seas.
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the area is
supporting moderate trade winds, along with moderate seas, over
the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and
slight to moderate seas are over the western Caribbean. The
pressure gradient will further loosen across the area by
midweek. This will diminish the moderate trades across the
central and eastern Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the western Atlantic.
An upper trough reaches from 32N70W through central Florida. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are active near 31N67W, southwest of
Bermuda, associated with the upper trough. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also active over the eastern Straits of Florida
into the northern Bahamas. Scatterometer data and buoy
observations confirm fresh to strong winds north of a shear line
along 25N. Altimeter data indicates rough seas with these winds.
Farther east, a stationary front extends from 1015 mb low pressure
near 29N36W to 25N55W. Fresh winds and 6-8 ft combined seas are
evident north of this frontal boundary. Gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas persist elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, broad low pressure is expected to
develop along the frontal boundary southwest of Bermuda, roughly
from 27N to 28N through Wed, and track slowly east-northeastward
during the rest of the week and the weekend. A broad zone of
strong to gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking
near 16 ft, will develop north of the low pressure and expand
eastward Wed through Sun, impacting the waters mainly north of
about 27N. The gale-force winds will likely be north of 29N from
Wed afternoon through Sat night. A weakening cold front will move
across the waters between Florida and 75W Fri and Fri night, then
dissipate Sat and Sat night.
$$
Christensen
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Wed, 04 Nov 2026 04:02:06 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
279
AXNT20 KNHC 040401
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Nov 4 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A sharp trough is analyzed this
evening from 26N65W to 22N68W. This development is associated
with an upper trough reaching from 32N70W through central Florida.
Recent buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data showed
fresh to strong NE to E winds between the trough and 1027 mb high
pressure over the western Atlantic near 37N65W. This pattern is
supporting a weak shear line along 25N. Concurrent altimeter data
showed 8-11 ft seas between the Bahamas and Bermuda. As the low
develops through Wed, the pressure gradient is expected to yield
near-gale to gale-force NE to E winds beginning Wed afternoon,
roughly over the waters from 29N to 31N between 63W and 69W. Seas
are expected to build to 10-16 ft (3-5 m) with these winds through
Thu as the low pressure drifts east- northeastward. The low
pressure could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this
week as it continues to shift slowly E-NE across the sub-tropical
Atlantic. Gale-force winds may continue across northern portions
of this expected broad low pressure into late Sat.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html
Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing
over the northwestern Caribbean will interact with enhanced low-
level moisture associated with broad cyclonic flow over the
western Caribbean during the next several days. This will favor
heavy precipitation developing across Central America, northern
South America, as well as Jamaica tonight through Friday. The
heaviest precipitation is expected across southern and western
portions of Costa Rica, Panama, and Nicaragua, with the bulk of
precipitation occurring today through Thursday. Heavy rainfall
will lead to possible life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the
International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic from coast of Sierra
Leone near 11N14.5W, and continues southwestward to 08N20W to
06N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N25N
to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to
10N between 20W and 45W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A broad trough extends from the northeast Gulf to the central
Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas to 4 ft are active
across the Florida Big Bend area between the trough and 1027 mb
high pressure off Virginia. Light to gentle breezes and 1-3 ft
are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, a cold front is entering the NW Gulf and will
continue moving across the NW Gulf through Wed, then weaken and
dissipate Wed night. Moderate northwest to north winds are
expected west of the front. Another cold front is expected to move
across the Gulf waters Fri through Sun night. Fresh to strong
north winds will develop west of the front and west of 93W Sat and
Sun, with moderate north to northeast winds elsewhere behind the
front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Deep-layer troughing across the northwestern Caribbean supports
scattered moderate to strong convection from 10N to 18N between
70W and 82W. A broad 1009 mb low pressure area is centered over
the southwest Caribbean near 12N82W. This pattern is supporting
gentle to moderate E winds over the eastern Caribbean with 3-5 ft
seas, and light breezes over the western Caribbean with 1-3 ft
seas.
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the area is
supporting moderate trade winds, along with moderate seas, over
the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and
slight to moderate seas are over the western Caribbean. The
pressure gradient will further loosen across the area by
midweek. This will diminish the moderate trades across the
central and eastern Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the western Atlantic.
An upper trough reaches from 32N70W through central Florida. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are active near 31N67W, southwest of
Bermuda, associated with the upper trough. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also active over the eastern Straits of Florida
into the northern Bahamas. Scatterometer data and buoy
observations confirm fresh to strong winds north of a shear line
along 25N. Altimeter data indicates rough seas with these winds.
Farther east, a stationary front extends from 1015 mb low pressure
near 29N36W to 25N55W. Fresh winds and 6-8 ft combined seas are
evident north of this frontal boundary. Gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas persist elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, broad low pressure is expected to
develop along the frontal boundary southwest of Bermuda, roughly
from 27N to 28N through Wed, and track slowly east-northeastward
during the rest of the week and the weekend. A broad zone of
strong to gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking
near 16 ft, will develop north of the low pressure and expand
eastward Wed through Sun, impacting the waters mainly north of
about 27N. The gale-force winds will likely be north of 29N from
Wed afternoon through Sat night. A weakening cold front will move
across the waters between Florida and 75W Fri and Fri night, then
dissipate Sat and Sat night.
$$
Christensen
Active Tropical Systems
- Thu, 05 Nov 2026 17:10:10 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 04 Nov 2026 05:48:29 GMT - Wed, 04 Nov 2026 05:10:10 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 040510
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Western and Central Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the next day or so
along a weakening front a few hundred miles south of Bermuda. This
system could gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics late
this week or this weekend while it moves slowly eastward over the
western and central subtropical Atlantic. By early next week,
environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for
further development. For more information on this system, including
Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Tue, 03 Nov 2026 16:15:32 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
547
NOUS42 KNHC 031615
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EST TUE 03 NOVEMBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z NOVEMBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-156
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
NOTE: THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC WINTER SEASON REQUIREMENTS ARE
NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf