2026 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

000
WTNT45 KNHC 221436
TCDAT5
 
Subtropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102026
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2026

Satellite imagery this morning indicates that an area of convection 
has developed to the north of the center of Josephine, although the 
convective curvature is less than it was last night.  Just- received 
scatterometer data suggests the convective cluster is near or just 
west of a developing frontal boundary. Satellite intensity estimates 
have changed little since the previous advisory, and the 
scatterometer shows winds near 50 kt west of the center. The initial 
intensity remains 55 kt based on a subtropical cyclone intensity 
estimate from TAFB and the possibility of the scatterometer 
undersampling the maximum wind.

The initial motion is northeastward or 040/10 kt.  GOES RGB airmass 
imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough extending from eastern 
Canada southwestward into the northeastern US, and Josephine should 
accelerate northeastward during the next 12-24 h as this trough 
amplifies and approaches the cyclone. After 24 h or so, Josephine 
should turn more eastward as it becomes embedded in the mid- 
latitude westerlies. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine 
will move away from the New England states today and pass south of 
Nova Scotia and Newfoundland tonight and Saturday. The guidance is 
again tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is similar to 
the previous forecast.

The interaction between Josephine and the aforementioned trough 
should cause the cyclone to develop fronts and become extratropical 
during the next 12 h, and the scatterometer data suggests this 
process is already underway. However, intensification is expected 
during this transition and Josephine will become a hurricane-force 
extratropical low later tonight and on Friday. The dynamical models 
are in good agreement that the cyclone should steadily weaken after 
24 h, and they forecast Josephine to dissipate between 72 and 96 h 
as it is absorbed by a new low pressure area developing to its 
northeast. The new intensity forecast is based mainly on the global 
physical models and it has only minor adjustments from the last 
forecast.  The wind radii forecasts have also been revised based on 
the global model forecasts.
 
Since the coastal wind hazards associated with this system have been
covered for the last several days through non-tropical products
issued by local National Weather Service offices, those products
will remain in effect until the threat diminishes and Josephine
moves farther away from the U.S. coast over the next day or so.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z 39.2N  67.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 40.5N  64.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  23/1200Z 42.3N  60.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  24/0000Z 43.4N  56.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  24/1200Z 43.7N  54.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  25/0000Z 43.9N  50.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  25/1200Z 43.6N  45.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

000
FONT15 KNHC 221436
PWSAT5
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102026               
1500 UTC THU OCT 22 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 39.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   9(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   6( 6)  38(44)  13(57)   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X  26(26)  33(59)   3(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X  15(15)  15(30)   3(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X  16(16)   8(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34 19  55(74)   2(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X  56(56)   8(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34 79  20(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X  26(26)  33(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
HALIFAX NS     34 70  10(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34 93   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 
ST JOHN NB     34 18   1(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
EASTPORT ME    34 15   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
HYANNIS MA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT35 KNHC 221435
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102026
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2026
 
...JOSEPHINE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN 
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.2N 67.3W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Josephine
was located near latitude 39.2 North, longitude 67.3 West. The storm
is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion, along with an increase in forward speed, is expected to
continue into tonight. A gradual turn toward the east is forecast on
Friday and into the weekend. On the forecast track, Josephine should
move away from the United States and remain south of Nova Scotia and
Newfoundland during the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast through the day
today while Josephine begins to transition to an extratropical
cyclone. Josephine is expected to become a powerful extratropical
cyclone with hurricane-force winds tonight or early Friday.
 
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the
center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds are possible in gusts along portions of the
northeastern United States coast through today. See products issued
by your local National Weather Service office for more details.
 
COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to locally moderate coastal flooding is
ongoing along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast and will
continue through the rest of the week around times of high tide.
Please refer to products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office for more information.
 
SURF: Large swells generated by Josephine are affecting much of the
eastern seaboard of the United States and portions of Atlantic
Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven