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2026 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models

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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2026 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 7 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Sun, 13 Sep 2026 21:05:27 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 132105
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0015 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2000 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W, south of 17N,
    moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
    strong convection is found from 12N to 16N between 43W and 47W.

    Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49.5W, south of
    18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers are found
    near this wave.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues
    southwestward to 08N36W to 10N51W. The ITCZ extends from 10N51W
    to near 12N61W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
    is observed from 04N to 11N between Africa and 44W. Similar
    convection is noted near the Lesser Antilles from 11N to 17N
    between 54W and 66W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted on satellite imagery
    over the SE Gulf toward Tampa Bay, Florida southward to the
    Florida Keys with a surface trough over the interior peninsula.
    Isolated to widely scattered showers are also found from 24N to
    28N between 87W and 97W due to moist SW flow. Otherwise, a 1018 mb
    high is at the surface, analyzed near 28N87W. A weak pressure
    pattern prevails over the basin with light to gentle anticyclonic
    flow over the NE half of the basin along with 1-2 ft seas, and
    moderate SE flow over the SW half of the basin along with 2-4 ft
    seas.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf
    will continue to support relatively tranquil conditions to most of
    the waters into Tue. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche,
    where a diurnal trough will move westward offshore the Yucatan
    Peninsula each evening, bringing nightly pulses of fresh NE winds.
    Starting late Tue, stronger high pressure building southward from
    the eastern United States will lead to increasing NE to E winds
    over the basin, with speeds reaching fresh to strong and rough
    seas over the northern Gulf Wed through Thu night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Other than the convection mentioned above, scattered moderate to
    strong convection is in the SW Caribbean south of 12N near the
    monsoon trough extending from the NE Pacific Ocean. A tight
    pressure gradient is between the subtropical ridge north of the
    islands and lower pressures in Colombia which continues to sustain
    strong to near gale-force NE-E winds over much of the central
    Caribbean. Rough seas are occurring in these waters. Fresh to
    strong NE-E winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the Windward
    Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
    winds and moderate seas are evident elsewhere south of 18N,
    including the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and
    slight to moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin.

    For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a subtropical
    ridge north of the islands and lower pressures associated with
    the Colombian Low will continue to support strong to near-gale
    easterly trade winds and rough seas over the central Caribbean for
    the next several days. Strong winds are expected tonight in the
    Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly breezes
    are expected over the next few days in the eastern Caribbean.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Of note, Meteo-France has issued a gale warning for the ongoing
    easterly gap wind event over the Straits of Gibraltar. This
    warning will continue through 14/06Z.

    A weak surface trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from
    29N47W to 20N43W with isolated to scattered moderate convection
    within 180 nm mainly east of the trough. Otherwise, 1019 mb high
    pressure is analyzed at 27N69W with only isolated convection found
    across the remainder of the basin aside from the tropical waves
    and monsoon trough/ITCZ discussed above. A rather weak pressure
    gradient dominates the tropical Atlantic with moderate or weaker
    winds across the waters, except moderate to fresh in the NE
    waters, and fresh winds from northern Hispaniola to the Windward
    Passage. Seas of 3-4 ft dominate the waters north of 10N and west
    of 55W across the offshore waters zones, and 4-locally 6 ft
    elsewhere.

    For the forecast west of 55W, trades north of Hispaniola into the
    Windward Passage will be fresh into Mon. On Tue, strong high
    pressure building southward through the eastern United States will
    bring a cold front into the NW waters, increasing NE winds to
    fresh to locally strong and causing seas to build to rough N of
    the Bahamas and W of 70W through Wed night. During the middle to
    later portion of the week, a trough of low pressure is forecast to
    move west- northwestward into the NE portion of the waters,
    bringing thunderstorms.

    $$
    Lewitsky
Tropical Weather Discussion
  • Sun, 13 Sep 2026 21:05:27 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 132105
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0015 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2000 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W, south of 17N,
    moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
    strong convection is found from 12N to 16N between 43W and 47W.

    Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49.5W, south of
    18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers are found
    near this wave.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues
    southwestward to 08N36W to 10N51W. The ITCZ extends from 10N51W
    to near 12N61W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
    is observed from 04N to 11N between Africa and 44W. Similar
    convection is noted near the Lesser Antilles from 11N to 17N
    between 54W and 66W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted on satellite imagery
    over the SE Gulf toward Tampa Bay, Florida southward to the
    Florida Keys with a surface trough over the interior peninsula.
    Isolated to widely scattered showers are also found from 24N to
    28N between 87W and 97W due to moist SW flow. Otherwise, a 1018 mb
    high is at the surface, analyzed near 28N87W. A weak pressure
    pattern prevails over the basin with light to gentle anticyclonic
    flow over the NE half of the basin along with 1-2 ft seas, and
    moderate SE flow over the SW half of the basin along with 2-4 ft
    seas.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf
    will continue to support relatively tranquil conditions to most of
    the waters into Tue. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche,
    where a diurnal trough will move westward offshore the Yucatan
    Peninsula each evening, bringing nightly pulses of fresh NE winds.
    Starting late Tue, stronger high pressure building southward from
    the eastern United States will lead to increasing NE to E winds
    over the basin, with speeds reaching fresh to strong and rough
    seas over the northern Gulf Wed through Thu night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Other than the convection mentioned above, scattered moderate to
    strong convection is in the SW Caribbean south of 12N near the
    monsoon trough extending from the NE Pacific Ocean. A tight
    pressure gradient is between the subtropical ridge north of the
    islands and lower pressures in Colombia which continues to sustain
    strong to near gale-force NE-E winds over much of the central
    Caribbean. Rough seas are occurring in these waters. Fresh to
    strong NE-E winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the Windward
    Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
    winds and moderate seas are evident elsewhere south of 18N,
    including the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and
    slight to moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin.

    For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a subtropical
    ridge north of the islands and lower pressures associated with
    the Colombian Low will continue to support strong to near-gale
    easterly trade winds and rough seas over the central Caribbean for
    the next several days. Strong winds are expected tonight in the
    Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly breezes
    are expected over the next few days in the eastern Caribbean.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Of note, Meteo-France has issued a gale warning for the ongoing
    easterly gap wind event over the Straits of Gibraltar. This
    warning will continue through 14/06Z.

    A weak surface trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from
    29N47W to 20N43W with isolated to scattered moderate convection
    within 180 nm mainly east of the trough. Otherwise, 1019 mb high
    pressure is analyzed at 27N69W with only isolated convection found
    across the remainder of the basin aside from the tropical waves
    and monsoon trough/ITCZ discussed above. A rather weak pressure
    gradient dominates the tropical Atlantic with moderate or weaker
    winds across the waters, except moderate to fresh in the NE
    waters, and fresh winds from northern Hispaniola to the Windward
    Passage. Seas of 3-4 ft dominate the waters north of 10N and west
    of 55W across the offshore waters zones, and 4-locally 6 ft
    elsewhere.

    For the forecast west of 55W, trades north of Hispaniola into the
    Windward Passage will be fresh into Mon. On Tue, strong high
    pressure building southward through the eastern United States will
    bring a cold front into the NW waters, increasing NE winds to
    fresh to locally strong and causing seas to build to rough N of
    the Bahamas and W of 70W through Wed night. During the middle to
    later portion of the week, a trough of low pressure is forecast to
    move west- northwestward into the NE portion of the waters,
    bringing thunderstorms.

    $$
    Lewitsky
Active Tropical Systems
  • Tue, 15 Sep 2026 11:25:59 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
    No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 14 Sep 2026 03:54:43 GMT
  • Sun, 13 Sep 2026 23:25:59 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
    219
    ABNT20 KNHC 132325
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

    Central Subtropical Atlantic:
    A trough of low pressure located about 1300 miles
    east-southeast of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and
    thunderstorms. Conditions are currently unfavorable for
    development. However, the system is expected to move into a more
    conducive environment for some gradual development by the middle to
    latter portion of this week. The disturbance is forecast to move
    slowly west-northwestward across the central part of the Subtropical
    Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
  • Sun, 13 Sep 2026 13:50:45 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
    000
    NOUS42 KNHC 131350
    REPRPD
    WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
    CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
    0950 AM EDT SUN 13 SEPTEMBER 2026
    SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
    VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2026
    TCPOD NUMBER.....26-105

    I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    $$
    WJM

    NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
  • Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf
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