2026 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

000
WTNT45 KNHC 220848
TCDAT5
 
Subtropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102026
500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that some renewed convection has
developed over the northern and western portions of Josephine's
circulation during the past several hours. An earlier Metop-C
scatterometer pass revealed a large and asymmetric wind field, with
a band of 45-50 kt winds wrapping around the western side of the
circulation and a radius of maximum winds near 60 n mi. Based on
these data and steady trends in the objective and subjective
satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 55
kt.
 
Josephine has turned toward the northeast and accelerated since the 
previous advisory, with the initial motion now estimated at 040/11 
kt. The cyclone should continue accelerating northeastward and then 
east-northeastward today as a potent upper-level trough digs 
southeastward from Quebec toward the Canadian Maritimes and the 
northeastern United States. This trough is forecast to amplify and 
eventually close off over the northern Atlantic by early Friday. As 
Josephine becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, the 
system should turn eastward on Friday and continue moving eastward 
through the weekend, passing well south of Newfoundland. The track 
guidance remains tightly clustered, and the latest NHC forecast is 
very similar to the previous prediction, with a slight leftward 
adjustment, reflecting a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.
 
Josephine is expected to lose its subtropical characteristics later
today or by tonight as it moves over cooler waters and interacts
with the approaching upper-level trough. However, some additional
strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 h due to baroclinic
processes and a positive interaction with the advancing trough as
the cyclone accelerates northeastward. The NHC forecast continues to
show Josephine becoming a hurricane-force extratropical cyclone
within 24 h. Gradual weakening is expected thereafter as the system
moves eastward across the North Atlantic. Global model guidance
indicates that Josephine should eventually open into a trough as it
becomes absorbed into a larger mid-latitude system, with dissipation
expected by day 4. Given Josephine's expected extratropical 
transition, the NHC intensity forecast lies slightly above a blend 
of the GFS and ECMWF models.
 
Since the coastal wind hazards associated with this system have been
covered for the last several days through non-tropical products
issued by local National Weather Service offices, those products
will remain in effect until the threat diminishes and Josephine
moves farther away from the U.S. coast over the next day or two.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 38.7N  68.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
 12H  22/1800Z 39.8N  66.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
 24H  23/0600Z 41.5N  62.2W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  23/1800Z 43.2N  58.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  24/0600Z 43.9N  55.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  24/1800Z 44.1N  53.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  25/0600Z 43.8N  48.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs

000
FONT15 KNHC 220847
PWSAT5
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102026               
0900 UTC THU OCT 22 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 38.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)  10(10)  24(34)  12(46)   X(46)   X(46)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)  25(25)  20(45)   2(47)   X(47)   X(47)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)  13(13)  10(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)  11(11)   7(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X  36(36)  14(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X  14(14)  21(35)   5(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X  88(88)   7(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   1( 1)  45(46)   1(47)   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  1  39(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34 47   9(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  1   7( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  2   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
HYANNIS MA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  9   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34 17   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER GIBBS

000
WTNT35 KNHC 220847
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102026
500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2026
 
...JOSEPHINE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE UNITED
STATES...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.7N 68.3W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Josephine
was located near latitude 38.7 North, longitude 68.3 West. The storm 
is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this 
motion, along with an increase in forward speed, is expected to 
continue into tonight. A gradual turn toward the east is forecast on 
Friday and into the weekend. On the forecast track, Josephine should 
move away from the United States and remain south of Nova Scotia and 
Newfoundland during the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast through the day 
today while Josephine begins to transition to an extratropical 
cyclone. Josephine is expected to become a powerful extratropical 
cyclone with hurricane-force winds by early Friday.
 
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the
center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds are possible in gusts along portions of the
northeastern United States coast through today. See products issued
by your local National Weather Service office for more details.
 
COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to locally moderate coastal flooding is
ongoing along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast and will
continue through the rest of the week around times of high tide.
Please refer to products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office for more information.
 
SURF: Large swells generated by Josephine are affecting much of the
eastern seaboard of the United States and portions of Atlantic
Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs