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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Fri, 02 Oct 2026 04:40:16 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 020440
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Oct 2 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 35W from 06N to 20N, moving westward at
about 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave axis.
A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along
68W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is helping to
induce some convective activity mainly N of 16N.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues
westward to 08N29W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 06N38W to 02N50W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N
to 11N between 10W and 20W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
An upper-level low currently over the Yucatan Peninsula, combined
with abundant tropical moisture, is promoting scattered showers
and thunderstorms over the E Gulf. Fresh to strong winds are noted
with this convection. Another area of convection has flared-up
over the Yucatan Peninsula where a surface trough is noted. A
frontal boundary is approaching the NW Gulf waters, with scattered
moderate convection noted ahead of it along the coasts of Texas
and NW Mexico. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the Gulf waters
supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas.
For the forecast, the upper-level low will continue to induce
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the E Gulf tonight,
spreading to the N Gulf on Fri and Sat. A tightening pressure
gradient will increase SE winds up to fresh to locally strong over
the E and central Gulf through Fri. A weak cold moving across
Texas will weaken the pressure gradient, allowing the winds across
the Gulf to diminish Fri into the weekend. On Sun, the front will
reach the NW Gulf, extending from Alabama to just offshore the
Texas-Mexico border to near Veracruz on Mon morning. Winds behind
the front should only be N to NE moderate to locally fresh.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level low over the Yucatan Peninsula is drawing abundant
moisture from the eastern Pacific into the western Caribbean,
which continues to fuel scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms mainly W of 80W. This convective activity is more
concentrated over western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. High
pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low is
supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across much of
the Caribbean Sea with moderate seas.
For the forecast, the upper-level low will support scattered
showers and thunderstorms west of 80W through Fri. A moderate
pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the Caribbean
and the Colombian Low will force fresh to locally strong trades
over the S central Caribbean and over the Gulf of Honduras through
Sat night. As a frontal boundary reaches the waters north of the
Bahamas, the pressure gradient will slacken again from Sun through
early next week leading to only moderate trades across the
Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture continues to
sustain scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 70W.
To the E, a surface trough is analyzed from 27N57W to 20N63W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the northern half of
the trough. A 1017 mb low is centered near 24N34W with no
significant convection. The remainder of the forecast area is
under the influence of a ridge, with the main high pressure center
of 1028 mb located NE of the Azores. A 1021 mb high pressure is
analyzed over the western Atlantic near 28N51W. Moderate to fresh
E to SE winds are noted between the Bahamas and Cuba. Moderate to
fresh NE winds are ahead of the tropical wave located near 35W.
Elsewhere moderate or weaker winds prevail with moderate seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 75W
through at least Sat. Meanwhile, a surface trough - associated
with the remnants of Fay - will support similar shower and
thunderstorm activity over the next couple days north of 22N and
east of 65W. Trades just north of Hispaniola will boost to fresh
to locally strong tonight and Fri night. Otherwise, winds and seas
will be quiescent through Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front may
reach the waters off of NE Florida Tue morning with increasing
winds and building seas behind the boundary.
$$
ERA
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Fri, 02 Oct 2026 04:40:16 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 020440
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Oct 2 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 35W from 06N to 20N, moving westward at
about 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave axis.
A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along
68W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is helping to
induce some convective activity mainly N of 16N.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues
westward to 08N29W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 06N38W to 02N50W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N
to 11N between 10W and 20W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
An upper-level low currently over the Yucatan Peninsula, combined
with abundant tropical moisture, is promoting scattered showers
and thunderstorms over the E Gulf. Fresh to strong winds are noted
with this convection. Another area of convection has flared-up
over the Yucatan Peninsula where a surface trough is noted. A
frontal boundary is approaching the NW Gulf waters, with scattered
moderate convection noted ahead of it along the coasts of Texas
and NW Mexico. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the Gulf waters
supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas.
For the forecast, the upper-level low will continue to induce
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the E Gulf tonight,
spreading to the N Gulf on Fri and Sat. A tightening pressure
gradient will increase SE winds up to fresh to locally strong over
the E and central Gulf through Fri. A weak cold moving across
Texas will weaken the pressure gradient, allowing the winds across
the Gulf to diminish Fri into the weekend. On Sun, the front will
reach the NW Gulf, extending from Alabama to just offshore the
Texas-Mexico border to near Veracruz on Mon morning. Winds behind
the front should only be N to NE moderate to locally fresh.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level low over the Yucatan Peninsula is drawing abundant
moisture from the eastern Pacific into the western Caribbean,
which continues to fuel scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms mainly W of 80W. This convective activity is more
concentrated over western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. High
pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low is
supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across much of
the Caribbean Sea with moderate seas.
For the forecast, the upper-level low will support scattered
showers and thunderstorms west of 80W through Fri. A moderate
pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the Caribbean
and the Colombian Low will force fresh to locally strong trades
over the S central Caribbean and over the Gulf of Honduras through
Sat night. As a frontal boundary reaches the waters north of the
Bahamas, the pressure gradient will slacken again from Sun through
early next week leading to only moderate trades across the
Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture continues to
sustain scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 70W.
To the E, a surface trough is analyzed from 27N57W to 20N63W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the northern half of
the trough. A 1017 mb low is centered near 24N34W with no
significant convection. The remainder of the forecast area is
under the influence of a ridge, with the main high pressure center
of 1028 mb located NE of the Azores. A 1021 mb high pressure is
analyzed over the western Atlantic near 28N51W. Moderate to fresh
E to SE winds are noted between the Bahamas and Cuba. Moderate to
fresh NE winds are ahead of the tropical wave located near 35W.
Elsewhere moderate or weaker winds prevail with moderate seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 75W
through at least Sat. Meanwhile, a surface trough - associated
with the remnants of Fay - will support similar shower and
thunderstorm activity over the next couple days north of 22N and
east of 65W. Trades just north of Hispaniola will boost to fresh
to locally strong tonight and Fri night. Otherwise, winds and seas
will be quiescent through Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front may
reach the waters off of NE Florida Tue morning with increasing
winds and building seas behind the boundary.
$$
ERA
Active Tropical Systems
- Sat, 03 Oct 2026 11:18:09 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 02 Oct 2026 04:54:20 GMT - Thu, 01 Oct 2026 23:18:09 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 012318
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Subtropical Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay):
An area of low pressure associated with the remnants of former
Tropical Storm Fay is located several hundred miles southeast of
Bermuda. Despite ongoing thunderstorm activity, dry air and strong
upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant re-development
while it moves northwestward, to the east of Bermuda. Any formation
chances should end by Sunday due to very strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Adams
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Thu, 01 Oct 2026 15:09:04 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 011508
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT THU 01 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-123
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf