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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sun, 11 Oct 2026 10:14:41 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
947
AXNT20 KNHC 111014
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Oct 11 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed
along the wave and monsoon trough near 13N27W. The broad system
is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
from 06N to 17N and between 22W and 36W.
Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of
19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 08N to 17N and between 33W and
45W.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 88W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave continues to interact with
an upper-level low over the NW Caribbean, and is supporting
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over much of the
NW Caribbean.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues
southwestward to a 1010 mb low near 14N27W, to a 1011 mb low near
10N41W and to 06N46W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 05N52W.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves,
scattered moderate convection noted long the monsoon trough and E
of 24W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front extends from 30N84W to 25N97W, then becomes
stationary to 23N97W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is found ahead of the front over the eastern Gulf
waters. A pair of surface troughs are analyzed S of the front
across the southwestern portion of the basin. Scattered showers
are also evident near these troughs.
The moderate pressure gradient between the high pressure over the
southern United States and the aforementioned cold front support
moderate to fresh easterly winds over much of the NW and north-
central Gulf, along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or
lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, fresh SW winds, moderate seas, and scattered
thunderstorms will persist over the NE Gulf through today. The
front will move across the southeast Gulf through mid week. High
pressure will build behind the front over the north-central Gulf,
supporting E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida
Straits to the Texas coast by mid week, and gentle breezes and
slight seas elsewhere.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active
tropical wave in the western Caribbean.
High pressure north of the islands extends into the Caribbean,
forcing moderate to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to
locally rough seas across much of the basin. The strongest winds
and highest seas are found off Colombia. A broad upper-level low
paired with an induced surface trough approaching the Leeward
Islands is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
eastern Caribbean, affecting much of the Lesser Antilles.
For the forecast, the surface trough will maintain unsettled
weather across the NE Caribbean through today. High pressure north
of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds and
moderate seas across the eastern and central Caribbean through the
early part of the week, with fresh to strong E winds and rough
seas across the Windward Passage and off Colombia. These winds and
seas will diminish through mid week as the high pressure shifts
eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N48W and
continues southwestward to 28N54W, then becomes stationary to
31N70W. A few showers are noted near these boundaries. Meanwhile,
showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident off NE Florida
ahead of a cold front moving across the eastern Gulf of America.
The modest pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the NW
Atlantic and the aforementioned front and a trough north of the
Leeward Islands sustain moderate to locally strong anticyclonic
winds over much of the SW North Atlantic, west of 60W and north of
the front west of 50W.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the
influence of a 1025 mb high pressure located just SE of the
Azores. The pressure gradient between its associated ridge and
lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough supports
moderate to locally strong NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough
to about 26N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move off the NE
Florida coast early Mon, reach from 31N75W to near Jupiter Inlet,
Florida by early Tue, and then stall and dissipate from Bermuda
to the Upper Florida Keys by early Wed. Fresh N winds and
building seas may follow another front reaching along 30N east of
75W by late Thu night.
$$
ERA
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sun, 11 Oct 2026 10:14:41 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
947
AXNT20 KNHC 111014
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Oct 11 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed
along the wave and monsoon trough near 13N27W. The broad system
is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
from 06N to 17N and between 22W and 36W.
Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of
19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 08N to 17N and between 33W and
45W.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 88W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave continues to interact with
an upper-level low over the NW Caribbean, and is supporting
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over much of the
NW Caribbean.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues
southwestward to a 1010 mb low near 14N27W, to a 1011 mb low near
10N41W and to 06N46W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 05N52W.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves,
scattered moderate convection noted long the monsoon trough and E
of 24W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front extends from 30N84W to 25N97W, then becomes
stationary to 23N97W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is found ahead of the front over the eastern Gulf
waters. A pair of surface troughs are analyzed S of the front
across the southwestern portion of the basin. Scattered showers
are also evident near these troughs.
The moderate pressure gradient between the high pressure over the
southern United States and the aforementioned cold front support
moderate to fresh easterly winds over much of the NW and north-
central Gulf, along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or
lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, fresh SW winds, moderate seas, and scattered
thunderstorms will persist over the NE Gulf through today. The
front will move across the southeast Gulf through mid week. High
pressure will build behind the front over the north-central Gulf,
supporting E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida
Straits to the Texas coast by mid week, and gentle breezes and
slight seas elsewhere.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active
tropical wave in the western Caribbean.
High pressure north of the islands extends into the Caribbean,
forcing moderate to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to
locally rough seas across much of the basin. The strongest winds
and highest seas are found off Colombia. A broad upper-level low
paired with an induced surface trough approaching the Leeward
Islands is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
eastern Caribbean, affecting much of the Lesser Antilles.
For the forecast, the surface trough will maintain unsettled
weather across the NE Caribbean through today. High pressure north
of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds and
moderate seas across the eastern and central Caribbean through the
early part of the week, with fresh to strong E winds and rough
seas across the Windward Passage and off Colombia. These winds and
seas will diminish through mid week as the high pressure shifts
eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N48W and
continues southwestward to 28N54W, then becomes stationary to
31N70W. A few showers are noted near these boundaries. Meanwhile,
showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident off NE Florida
ahead of a cold front moving across the eastern Gulf of America.
The modest pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the NW
Atlantic and the aforementioned front and a trough north of the
Leeward Islands sustain moderate to locally strong anticyclonic
winds over much of the SW North Atlantic, west of 60W and north of
the front west of 50W.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the
influence of a 1025 mb high pressure located just SE of the
Azores. The pressure gradient between its associated ridge and
lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough supports
moderate to locally strong NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough
to about 26N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move off the NE
Florida coast early Mon, reach from 31N75W to near Jupiter Inlet,
Florida by early Tue, and then stall and dissipate from Bermuda
to the Upper Florida Keys by early Wed. Fresh N winds and
building seas may follow another front reaching along 30N east of
75W by late Thu night.
$$
ERA
Active Tropical Systems
- Sun, 11 Oct 2026 15:56:00 +0000: Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Graphics - NHC Atlantic
- Sun, 11 Oct 2026 15:00:48 +0000: Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 20 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026000 WTNT44 KWNH 111500 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Discussion Number 20 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL092026 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026 Key Messages: 1. Areas of heavy rainfall will continue across portions of the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today, with localized flash and urban flooding possible. River flooding continues in western North Carolina. 2. Swells from Isaias will continue to affect much of the Gulf and Southeastern Atlantic coasts of the United States today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 3. A couple of tornadoes are possible today across the Piedmont and Coastal Plain of Virginia and North Carolina. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 37.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 12H 12/0000Z 38.8N 80.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Chenard
- Sun, 11 Oct 2026 15:00:17 +0000: Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Public Advisory Number 20 - NHC Atlantic
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026 - Sun, 11 Oct 2026 15:00:17 +0000: Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias (AT4/AL092026) - NHC Atlantic
...FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM ISAIAS IS DECREASING BUT SOME RISK CONTINUES TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 the center of Isaias was located near 37.5, -84.0 with movement ENE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 25 mph. - Sun, 11 Oct 2026 14:59:50 +0000: Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 20 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026000 WTNT24 KWNH 111459 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL092026 1500 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 84.0W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 84.0W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 84.8W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 38.8N 80.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.5N 84.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER CHENARD
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sun, 11 Oct 2026 14:22:09 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 111422
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1025 AM EDT SUN 11 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-133
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf