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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Fri, 14 Aug 2026 03:56:11 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 140356
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will tighten
between subtropical high pressure across the western Atlantic
along 27N and the Colombian low on Friday. This will increase
winds in the south central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale
force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela on Friday night.
Very rough seas to 13 ft will build near and downwind of these
gales in the southwest Caribbean Fri night into early Sat.
Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have continued to
become less organized. This system is moving into a region of
increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and the possibility of
development appears to be decreasing. Regardless of development,
interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor the
progress of this system since gusty winds and areas of heavy rain
are possible across these islands Friday night and Saturday.
There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in the
next 48 hours.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W, from 02N to 20N, moving
west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the wave's
environment. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form late this week or this weekend while the wave moves
westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical development
of this system in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance for
development in the next 7 days.
Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a tropical
wave with axis near 47W.
The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W, moving
westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted over northern Venezuela and Colombia as well
as adjacent waters S of 12N. from 15N to 20N between 68W and 72W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends
southwestward to 09N55W. Aside from convection noted in the
tropical waves and SPECIAL FEATURES section above, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 13N between
33W-38W and W of 49W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by
a 1018 mb high near 27N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
prevail across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center.
Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the ridge will change little through Sat before
weakening Sun and Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to
moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh
winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into
the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a surface trough
migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf.
Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning
in effect for the south-central basin effective Fri night.
The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and
the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the
central Caribbean waters. Moderate seas prevail over these waters.
Fresh to strong trade winds and moderate seas are over the
eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to
moderate seas, prevail over the remaining waters.
For the forecast, the tropical wave combined with the Bermuda
High north of the region will enhance the trades over the central
Caribbean through Sat. Peak winds should reach gale-force just
north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night into Sat
morning. Additionally, another strong tropical wave, Invest AL92,
should start impacting the Leeward Islands beginning tomorrow
evening. Strong to near gale-force winds along with areas of heavy
rain are expected Fri night and Sat. These weather conditions
will shift westward toward the central Caribbean and the Greater
Antilles, including the Windward Passage from Sat night through
Mon. Afterwards, the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward
the W Caribbean. Note that if Invest AL92 forms into a tropical
cyclone, the winds and waves expected may be higher than indicated
here.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92
located over the central tropical Atlantic.
A surface trough extends over the SW N Atlantic from 30N63W to
the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is in the vicinity of the trough. High pressure
dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N,
anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 27N55W. Light to gentle
winds, and slight seas are in the vicinity of the high center,
mainly N of 24N between 30W and 60W. Fresh to strong winds, and
rough seas, generated by Invest AL92 are from 12N to 17N between
41W and 50W. Fresh to strong winds are also found near the Canary
Islands SE toward the coast of Africa. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge combined with
two tropical waves passing through the Caribbean Sea will cause
fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun night.
Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate for the
next few days. A weak cold front will slowly push across our
northern border east of 70W Sun, causing a wind shift to northeast
but with little change in wind speeds on Sun and Mon north of
28N.
$$
ERA
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Fri, 14 Aug 2026 03:56:11 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 140356
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will tighten
between subtropical high pressure across the western Atlantic
along 27N and the Colombian low on Friday. This will increase
winds in the south central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale
force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela on Friday night.
Very rough seas to 13 ft will build near and downwind of these
gales in the southwest Caribbean Fri night into early Sat.
Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have continued to
become less organized. This system is moving into a region of
increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and the possibility of
development appears to be decreasing. Regardless of development,
interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor the
progress of this system since gusty winds and areas of heavy rain
are possible across these islands Friday night and Saturday.
There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in the
next 48 hours.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W, from 02N to 20N, moving
west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the wave's
environment. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form late this week or this weekend while the wave moves
westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical development
of this system in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance for
development in the next 7 days.
Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a tropical
wave with axis near 47W.
The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W, moving
westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted over northern Venezuela and Colombia as well
as adjacent waters S of 12N. from 15N to 20N between 68W and 72W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends
southwestward to 09N55W. Aside from convection noted in the
tropical waves and SPECIAL FEATURES section above, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 13N between
33W-38W and W of 49W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by
a 1018 mb high near 27N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
prevail across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center.
Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the ridge will change little through Sat before
weakening Sun and Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to
moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh
winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into
the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a surface trough
migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf.
Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning
in effect for the south-central basin effective Fri night.
The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and
the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the
central Caribbean waters. Moderate seas prevail over these waters.
Fresh to strong trade winds and moderate seas are over the
eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to
moderate seas, prevail over the remaining waters.
For the forecast, the tropical wave combined with the Bermuda
High north of the region will enhance the trades over the central
Caribbean through Sat. Peak winds should reach gale-force just
north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night into Sat
morning. Additionally, another strong tropical wave, Invest AL92,
should start impacting the Leeward Islands beginning tomorrow
evening. Strong to near gale-force winds along with areas of heavy
rain are expected Fri night and Sat. These weather conditions
will shift westward toward the central Caribbean and the Greater
Antilles, including the Windward Passage from Sat night through
Mon. Afterwards, the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward
the W Caribbean. Note that if Invest AL92 forms into a tropical
cyclone, the winds and waves expected may be higher than indicated
here.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92
located over the central tropical Atlantic.
A surface trough extends over the SW N Atlantic from 30N63W to
the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is in the vicinity of the trough. High pressure
dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N,
anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 27N55W. Light to gentle
winds, and slight seas are in the vicinity of the high center,
mainly N of 24N between 30W and 60W. Fresh to strong winds, and
rough seas, generated by Invest AL92 are from 12N to 17N between
41W and 50W. Fresh to strong winds are also found near the Canary
Islands SE toward the coast of Africa. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge combined with
two tropical waves passing through the Caribbean Sea will cause
fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun night.
Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate for the
next few days. A weak cold front will slowly push across our
northern border east of 70W Sun, causing a wind shift to northeast
but with little change in wind speeds on Sun and Mon north of
28N.
$$
ERA
Active Tropical Systems
- Sat, 15 Aug 2026 17:28:48 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 14 Aug 2026 07:08:22 GMT - Fri, 14 Aug 2026 05:28:48 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 140528
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have continued to become
less organized. This system is moving into a region of increasing
upper-level winds and dry air, and the possibility of development is
decreasing. Regardless of development, interests in the Lesser
Antilles should continue to monitor the progress of this system
since gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible across these
islands Friday night and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this
week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Thu, 13 Aug 2026 18:04:41 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 131804
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0205 PM EDT THU 13 AUGUST 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z AUGUST 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-074 AMENDMENT
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM LALA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 79 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
A. 14/1730Z,2330Z A. 15/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0701C LALA B. NOAA9 0801C LALA
C. 14/1600Z C. 14/2000Z
D. 17.0N 150.5W D. NA
E. 14/1700Z TO 13/2330Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
G. FIX G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION
FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 77
A. 15/0000Z A. 15/0530Z,1130Z
B. NOAA2 0901C LALA B. AFXXX 1001C LALA
C. 14/2000Z C. 15/0415Z
D. 17.4N 151.7W D. 17.7N 153.0W
E. 14/2200Z TO 15/0230Z E. 14/0500Z TO 14/1130Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HOURLY FIX MISSIONS INTO TROPICAL STORM LALA IF
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO TROPICAL
STORM LALA FOR 16/0000Z, DEPARTING PHJR AT 15/2000Z.
3. REMARK: DURING THE NOAA 42 MISSION TASKED FOR THE 15/0000Z
SYNOPTIC TIME, FOUR SMALL UAS ARE PLANNED FOR RELEASE WITHIN
THE WRA. THEY WILL OPERATE AT OR BELOW 5,000 FT FOR ABOUT
1 TO 1.5 HOURS. (AMENDED)
$$
KAL
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf