2026 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 21:20:28 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 212120
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Oct 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2120 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The
Gambia near 13N17W and continues to 08N30W. The ITCZ extends from
08N30W to near 08N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
05N to 10N between 15W and 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A trough is in the W Gulf from near Corpus Cristi to the Bay of
Campeche. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within
60 nm of the trough south of 22N. High pressure dominates the
remainder of the Gulf waters. Strong to near- gale winds are west
of the trough and south of 21N, where rough seas prevail.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern of the United
States has a ridge extending into the Gulf region. This system
supports moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds, with the
exception of strong to near-gale force NW winds over the SW Gulf.
The latter winds will persist through tonight. A tightening
pressure gradient between the above mentioned ridge and a low
pressure forecast to develop near the Bahamas will bring fresh to
strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas over the eastern Gulf
Fri night into Sat. These marine conditions will spread westward
to the central Gulf Sat night through Sun night. Seas are expected
to build to 12 or 13 ft with these winds over the SE Gulf on Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient is supporting moderate or weaker winds,
and slight to moderate seas, across the Caribbean waters.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will
promote gentle to moderate winds through Fri. The pressure
gradient between a developing low pressure near the Bahamas and
the Atlantic ridge will bring moderate to fresh E to SE winds over
the eastern Caribbean beginning Fri night. At the same time,
strong high pressure over the eastern seaboard and the same low
pressure will produce moderate to fresh northerly winds over the
western part of the basin, including the Yucatan Channel. Mainly
light to gentle winds are expected over the central Caribbean.
These marine conditions will persist through the upcoming weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to the central
Bahamas and to east-central Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds, and
moderate to rough seas, prevail west of the front. To the east, a
1011 mb low is centered near 29N57W, with a surface trough
extending NW to SE through the low. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted east of the trough from 23N to
30N between 42W and 55W. Fresh to strong winds, and moderate to
rough seas, are east of the trough from 23N to 31N between 50W and
55W. Another trough extends from 31N23W to 22N23W. No significant
convection is in the vicinity of the trough. Moderate winds, and
moderate seas are N of 24N on either side of the trough between
14W and 32W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and
NE swell persist west of a stationary front that extends from
near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to east-central Cuba.
Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by this evening
while seas will slowly subside across the waters W of 65W and NE
of the Bahamas through Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will
develop beginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over
the western Atlantic and low pressure develops near the Bahamas
along a remnant frontal trough. This setup is expected to induce
widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough
seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force over the waters
roughly NW of a line from near 31N60W to the northern Bahamas on
Sun. Mariners should monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have
avoidance plans in place.

$$
AL

Tropical Weather Discussion

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 21:20:28 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 212120
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Oct 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2120 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The
Gambia near 13N17W and continues to 08N30W. The ITCZ extends from
08N30W to near 08N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
05N to 10N between 15W and 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A trough is in the W Gulf from near Corpus Cristi to the Bay of
Campeche. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within
60 nm of the trough south of 22N. High pressure dominates the
remainder of the Gulf waters. Strong to near- gale winds are west
of the trough and south of 21N, where rough seas prevail.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern of the United
States has a ridge extending into the Gulf region. This system
supports moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds, with the
exception of strong to near-gale force NW winds over the SW Gulf.
The latter winds will persist through tonight. A tightening
pressure gradient between the above mentioned ridge and a low
pressure forecast to develop near the Bahamas will bring fresh to
strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas over the eastern Gulf
Fri night into Sat. These marine conditions will spread westward
to the central Gulf Sat night through Sun night. Seas are expected
to build to 12 or 13 ft with these winds over the SE Gulf on Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient is supporting moderate or weaker winds,
and slight to moderate seas, across the Caribbean waters.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will
promote gentle to moderate winds through Fri. The pressure
gradient between a developing low pressure near the Bahamas and
the Atlantic ridge will bring moderate to fresh E to SE winds over
the eastern Caribbean beginning Fri night. At the same time,
strong high pressure over the eastern seaboard and the same low
pressure will produce moderate to fresh northerly winds over the
western part of the basin, including the Yucatan Channel. Mainly
light to gentle winds are expected over the central Caribbean.
These marine conditions will persist through the upcoming weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to the central
Bahamas and to east-central Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds, and
moderate to rough seas, prevail west of the front. To the east, a
1011 mb low is centered near 29N57W, with a surface trough
extending NW to SE through the low. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted east of the trough from 23N to
30N between 42W and 55W. Fresh to strong winds, and moderate to
rough seas, are east of the trough from 23N to 31N between 50W and
55W. Another trough extends from 31N23W to 22N23W. No significant
convection is in the vicinity of the trough. Moderate winds, and
moderate seas are N of 24N on either side of the trough between
14W and 32W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and
NE swell persist west of a stationary front that extends from
near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to east-central Cuba.
Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by this evening
while seas will slowly subside across the waters W of 65W and NE
of the Bahamas through Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will
develop beginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over
the western Atlantic and low pressure develops near the Bahamas
along a remnant frontal trough. This setup is expected to induce
widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough
seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force over the waters
roughly NW of a line from near 31N60W to the northern Bahamas on
Sun. Mariners should monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have
avoidance plans in place.

$$
AL

Active Tropical Systems

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 21:23:02 +0000: Subtropical Storm Josephine Graphics - NHC Atlantic

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2026 21:23:02 GMT

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 20:48:05 +0000: Subtropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 1 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026

000
WTNT45 KNHC 212047
TCDAT5
 
Subtropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102026
500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026

The non-tropical area of low pressure (Invest AL93) that we have 
been monitoring this week has acquired enough subtropical 
characteristics to be considered a subtropical storm.  
Scatterometer data showed that fronts near the cyclone had 
dissipated, with a smaller radius-of-maximum wind than yesterday.  
Additionally moderate-to-deep convection has been organizing near 
and west of the warm-core center.  Thus, advisories have been 
initiated on a subtropical storm, and 55 kt is shown as the initial 
intensity based on the scatterometer data.

Josephine has been moving slowly northward today as a shortwave 
ridge passes across the northeastern United States.  The storm 
should accelerate northeastward tomorrow as a mid-latitude trough 
digs into the Great Lakes and Northeastern United States, taking 
the system away from the US.  By Friday, the low should turn 
eastward, to the south of Newfoundland.  Model guidance is in good 
agreement on this path, and the new forecast is close to a blend of 
the global model consensus and the NOAA corrected-consensus aid 
HCCA.

The subtropical storm will likely intensify during the next day or 
so through a favorable trough interaction while it remains near the 
north wall of the Gulf Stream.  Global models are in good agreement 
on a band of hurricane-force winds developing tomorrow on the back 
side of the low as it undergoes extratropical transition.  A slow 
weakening is anticipated by late Friday with the loss of forcing 
from the trough while the system moves over cold water.  The NHC 
intensity forecast is similar to a blend of the GFS/ECMWF global 
model solutions.  The cyclone should become absorbed in about 4 
days within a much larger low over the North Atlantic.  

Since the coastal wind hazards with this system have been covered 
for the last several days through non-tropical products issued by 
local National Weather Service offices, and the system is forecast 
to move away from the coast, those products will remain in effect 
until the threat diminishes.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 37.4N  69.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
 12H  22/0600Z 38.1N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
 24H  22/1800Z 39.6N  66.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  23/0600Z 41.4N  61.6W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  23/1800Z 43.3N  56.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  24/0600Z 44.1N  53.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/1800Z 44.4N  50.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  25/1800Z 43.5N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 20:46:59 +0000: Subtropical Storm Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2026

000
FONT15 KNHC 212046
PWSAT5
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102026               
2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  22(26)   2(28)   X(28)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  32(34)  23(57)   X(57)   X(57)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  41(49)   7(56)   X(56)   X(56)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  21(26)   6(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  13(20)   4(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   2( 2)  48(50)   8(58)   1(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)  30(30)  17(47)   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   6( 6)  82(88)   4(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  34(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   4( 4)  41(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X  42(42)  12(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   7( 7)   8(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X  10(10)   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WORCESTER MA   34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BOSTON MA      34  4   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
HYANNIS MA     34 63   3(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34 48   2(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34 15   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34 63   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 
ISLIP NY       34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 10   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 20:46:59 +0000: Subtropical Storm Josephine Public Advisory Number 1 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026

000
WTNT35 KNHC 212046
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102026
500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026
 
...SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORMS...
...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.4N 69.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Josephine
was located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 69.5 West. Josephine
is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h).  The storm should 
turn northeastward by tomorrow with a large increase in forward 
speed.  On the forecast track, Josephine should move away from the 
United States and remain south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.  
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is expected, though Josephine is 
anticipated to remain a subtropical storm through early Thursday.  
Further strengthening is likely by late Thursday as Josephine 
becomes a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds.
 
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the
center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Gale-force winds are possible in gusts along portions of the 
northeastern United States coast through Thursday.  See products 
issued by your local National Weather Service office for more 
details.

COASTAL FLOODING:  Minor to locally moderate coastal flooding is 
ongoing along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast and will 
continue through the rest of the week around times of high tide. 
Please refer to products issued by your local National Weather 
Service forecast office for more information.

SURF: Large swells generated by Josephine are affecting much of the 
eastern seaboard of the United States and portions of Atlantic 
Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local 
weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found 
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 20:46:59 +0000: Summary for Subtropical Storm Josephine (AT5/AL102026) - NHC Atlantic
...SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORMS... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 21 the center of Josephine was located near 37.4, -69.5 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 14:25:55 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
075
NOUS42 KNHC 211425
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1025 AM EDT WED 21 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-143

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WJM

NNNN

Marine Weather Discussion

Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000 ABNT30 KNHC 011304 TWSAT Monthly Tropical Weather Summary NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025 This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports (TCRs): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new web-based format allows the information to be updated once the post-analysis for the season is complete. For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to hurricanes.gov: https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25- 22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf

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