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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sun, 11 Oct 2026 23:02:11 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 112302
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Oct 12 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 20N, moving
westward at 5 to 10 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed along
the wave axis 14N29W. The most recent satellite scatterometer data
indicate strong S to SW winds to 30 kt across the SE quadrant,
and fresh to strong NE to E winds across the N semicircle of center.
Seas are 8 to 11 ft across these areas. A cluster of moderate to
strong convection is just E of the low center. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some development
of this system over the next day or two before upper-level winds
become too strong for any further development by midweek. Regardless,
heavy rainfall is expected over the next few days for portions
of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves slowly northward to
north-northwestward. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone
development in the next 48 hours, and also through next 7 days.
Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W/41W, south of 19N,
moving westward near 15 kt. A 1010 mb low is along the wave axis
near 10N41W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
observed in the vicinity of the low center, and mainly from 08N
to 13N and between 38W and 45W.
The tropical that wave previously located over the NW Caribbean
has now its axis over the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala.
Please, see more information in the eastern Pacific Tropical
Weather Discussion.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of west
Africa near 12N16W and continues westward to 14N29W to 10N41W to
08N46W. The ITCZ extends from 08N46W to 08N60W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 20W and 38W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends from near Sarasota, Florida across the
central Gulf to near NE Mexico. Some shower activity, with embedded
thunderstorms, are along the frontal boundary. A band of showers
and thunderstorms is noted ahead of the front affecting portions
of central and south Florida. A 1021 mb high pressure has shifted
southward into the north-central Gulf, and it is located just S
of SE Louisiana. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 3
to 5 ft prevail N of the front. Light to gentle winds and slight
to moderate seas are south of the front.
For the forecast, the front will move across the southeast Gulf
and stall, then dissipate through mid week. High pressure building
behind the front over the north-central Gulf will support E to
SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas
coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. Looking
ahead, fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow
another cold front moving into the northeast Gulf Fri night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A large upper level low center is shifting westward across the
eastern Caribbean, generating a significant area of showers and
thunderstorms. At the surface, high pressure remains well north
of the basin across the NW Atlantic. The modest pressure gradient
across the Caribbean is forcing moderate to fresh easterly trade
winds and moderate to locally rough seas to 8 ft across most of
the basin E of 82W. Fresh to strong winds are occurring S of
Hispaniola, through the Windward Passage, and offshore Colombia.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the
eastern and central Caribbean through Mon, with fresh to strong
E winds and rough seas across the Windward Passage and off
Colombia. These winds and seas will diminish Tue as the high
pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the
Gulf and western Atlantic.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N40W and continues
southwestward to 27N50W, then becomes stationary to 27N68W. Fresh
to strong NE to E winds follow the front E of 65W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the front. Meanwhile,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue in a 75 nm
wide band off NE Florida, ahead of a cold front moving across
central Florida. The modest pressure gradient between a strong
ridge over the NW Atlantic and the aforementioned front north of
the Leeward Islands is sustaining moderate easterly winds S of
25N W of 65W, including the Bahamas and the Old Bahamas Channel.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence
of a 1024 mb high pressure located N of the Madeira Islands near
35N17.5W. The pressure gradient between its associated ridge and
lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough supports
moderate to locally strong NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough
to about 24N and E of 44W, with stronger winds near the tropical
wave located along 29W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front moving off northeast
Florida will reach from 31N77W to Jupiter Inlet, Florida late
Mon, and from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by early Tue. The
northern part of the front will continue to move eastward before
stalling and dissipating through mid week, while the western
part lifts northward across the Bahamas and Florida while
dissipating. Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the waters
off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning.
$$
GR
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sun, 11 Oct 2026 23:02:11 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 112302
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Oct 12 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 20N, moving
westward at 5 to 10 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed along
the wave axis 14N29W. The most recent satellite scatterometer data
indicate strong S to SW winds to 30 kt across the SE quadrant,
and fresh to strong NE to E winds across the N semicircle of center.
Seas are 8 to 11 ft across these areas. A cluster of moderate to
strong convection is just E of the low center. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some development
of this system over the next day or two before upper-level winds
become too strong for any further development by midweek. Regardless,
heavy rainfall is expected over the next few days for portions
of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves slowly northward to
north-northwestward. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone
development in the next 48 hours, and also through next 7 days.
Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W/41W, south of 19N,
moving westward near 15 kt. A 1010 mb low is along the wave axis
near 10N41W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
observed in the vicinity of the low center, and mainly from 08N
to 13N and between 38W and 45W.
The tropical that wave previously located over the NW Caribbean
has now its axis over the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala.
Please, see more information in the eastern Pacific Tropical
Weather Discussion.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of west
Africa near 12N16W and continues westward to 14N29W to 10N41W to
08N46W. The ITCZ extends from 08N46W to 08N60W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 20W and 38W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends from near Sarasota, Florida across the
central Gulf to near NE Mexico. Some shower activity, with embedded
thunderstorms, are along the frontal boundary. A band of showers
and thunderstorms is noted ahead of the front affecting portions
of central and south Florida. A 1021 mb high pressure has shifted
southward into the north-central Gulf, and it is located just S
of SE Louisiana. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 3
to 5 ft prevail N of the front. Light to gentle winds and slight
to moderate seas are south of the front.
For the forecast, the front will move across the southeast Gulf
and stall, then dissipate through mid week. High pressure building
behind the front over the north-central Gulf will support E to
SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas
coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. Looking
ahead, fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow
another cold front moving into the northeast Gulf Fri night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A large upper level low center is shifting westward across the
eastern Caribbean, generating a significant area of showers and
thunderstorms. At the surface, high pressure remains well north
of the basin across the NW Atlantic. The modest pressure gradient
across the Caribbean is forcing moderate to fresh easterly trade
winds and moderate to locally rough seas to 8 ft across most of
the basin E of 82W. Fresh to strong winds are occurring S of
Hispaniola, through the Windward Passage, and offshore Colombia.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the
eastern and central Caribbean through Mon, with fresh to strong
E winds and rough seas across the Windward Passage and off
Colombia. These winds and seas will diminish Tue as the high
pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the
Gulf and western Atlantic.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N40W and continues
southwestward to 27N50W, then becomes stationary to 27N68W. Fresh
to strong NE to E winds follow the front E of 65W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the front. Meanwhile,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue in a 75 nm
wide band off NE Florida, ahead of a cold front moving across
central Florida. The modest pressure gradient between a strong
ridge over the NW Atlantic and the aforementioned front north of
the Leeward Islands is sustaining moderate easterly winds S of
25N W of 65W, including the Bahamas and the Old Bahamas Channel.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence
of a 1024 mb high pressure located N of the Madeira Islands near
35N17.5W. The pressure gradient between its associated ridge and
lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough supports
moderate to locally strong NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough
to about 24N and E of 44W, with stronger winds near the tropical
wave located along 29W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front moving off northeast
Florida will reach from 31N77W to Jupiter Inlet, Florida late
Mon, and from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by early Tue. The
northern part of the front will continue to move eastward before
stalling and dissipating through mid week, while the western
part lifts northward across the Bahamas and Florida while
dissipating. Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the waters
off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning.
$$
GR
Active Tropical Systems
- Tue, 13 Oct 2026 11:09:15 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 12 Oct 2026 00:21:17 GMT - Sun, 11 Oct 2026 23:09:15 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 112309
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles west
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large but disorganized area
of showers and thunderstorms, extending from these islands
southwestward into the eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some development of
this system over the next day or two before upper-level winds become
too strong for any further development by midweek. Regardless, heavy
rainfall is expected over the next few days for portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands as the system moves slowly northward to
north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Evans/Cangialosi
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sun, 11 Oct 2026 14:22:09 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 111422
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1025 AM EDT SUN 11 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-133
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf