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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Tue, 06 Oct 2026 10:58:59 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 061058
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Southwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL92):
Gradual development of a low near Tampico, Mexico is becoming more
likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next couple of days. This system is expected to drift eastward
over the next few days, before it turns northward. Regardless of
development, fresh to near gale-force winds and rough to very
rough seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat
night. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends from 20N to
25N between 94W and 98W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is elsewhere in the Bay of Campeche. Chances of tropical cyclone
formation through the next 48 hours are high.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis near 63W, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 12N to 16N between 58W and 64W. The wave is also
enhancing fresh to strong E winds across the central Lesser Antilles
and adjacent waters.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and extends to
12N30W to 07N44W. The ITCZ extends from 07N44W to 10N58W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 16N between
16W and 38W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please read the Special Features section above for more
information on Invest AL92.
A weak cold front extends from Cape Canaveral to just N of Tampa
Bay where it stalls to a 1010 mb low near 29N86W to 28N94W to
25N97W. A surface trough then continues from the tail of the front
along the E Mexico offshores to Invest AL92 low to the Bay of
Campeche. Observations across the northern Gulf coastal waters
depict fresh to strong NE winds N of the front and slight to
moderate seas. Strong convection in the vicinity of AL92 suggest
stronger gusty winds and rough seas are likely. Elsewhere, ahead
of these boundaries, winds are moderate or weaker, and seas slight
to moderate.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a
trough along the E Mexican offshores through today. Weak surface
ridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift eastward through late
today ahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf through Wed
before it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and
building seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, gradual
development of a low NE of Tampico is becoming more likely, and a
a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or
latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift
eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward.
Regardless of development, fresh to near gale-force winds and
rough to very rough seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed
through Sat night. Mariners should monitor the latest forecasts
from the National Hurricane Center.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail in the northwest and
central Caribbean being supported by weak 1017 mb high to the SE
of Bermuda. Moderate to fresh winds are also in the far E basin
due to the passage of a tropical wave that is bringing showers and
isolated tstms to the central Lesser Antilles and adjacent
waters. Middle level diffluent flow is generating scattered
showers in the Windward Passage. Otherwise, scattered heavy
showers are offshore Panama associated with the E extension of the
Pacific monsoon.
For the forecast, weak ridging SE of Bermuda will support
moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and central
Caribbean through this morning. Afterward, a cold front will move
across the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure
gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the
basin through early Thu. High pressure is forecast to redevelop
to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through
Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the easterly
winds over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri, then moderate
to fresh Fri night through Sat night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front stalls near 30N73W and extends to 30N79W where it
transitions to a cold front that extends to Cape Canaveral,
Florida. Scattered showers and isolated tstms along with fresh NE
winds are behind the front. Weak surface ridging dominates the
remainder subtropical waters, providing moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front will transition
to a cold front and move slowly E over the area today, then stall
from Bermuda to NE Florida tonight into Wed. Fresh to strong NE
winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining off NE
Florida through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight
seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, high
pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will
increase trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing
Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong
speeds again off NE Florida late on Fri as a low pressure,
possible tropical cyclone, moves northward across the Gulf of
America.
$$
Ramos
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Tue, 06 Oct 2026 10:58:59 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 061058
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Southwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL92):
Gradual development of a low near Tampico, Mexico is becoming more
likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next couple of days. This system is expected to drift eastward
over the next few days, before it turns northward. Regardless of
development, fresh to near gale-force winds and rough to very
rough seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat
night. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends from 20N to
25N between 94W and 98W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is elsewhere in the Bay of Campeche. Chances of tropical cyclone
formation through the next 48 hours are high.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis near 63W, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 12N to 16N between 58W and 64W. The wave is also
enhancing fresh to strong E winds across the central Lesser Antilles
and adjacent waters.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and extends to
12N30W to 07N44W. The ITCZ extends from 07N44W to 10N58W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 16N between
16W and 38W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please read the Special Features section above for more
information on Invest AL92.
A weak cold front extends from Cape Canaveral to just N of Tampa
Bay where it stalls to a 1010 mb low near 29N86W to 28N94W to
25N97W. A surface trough then continues from the tail of the front
along the E Mexico offshores to Invest AL92 low to the Bay of
Campeche. Observations across the northern Gulf coastal waters
depict fresh to strong NE winds N of the front and slight to
moderate seas. Strong convection in the vicinity of AL92 suggest
stronger gusty winds and rough seas are likely. Elsewhere, ahead
of these boundaries, winds are moderate or weaker, and seas slight
to moderate.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a
trough along the E Mexican offshores through today. Weak surface
ridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift eastward through late
today ahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf through Wed
before it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and
building seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, gradual
development of a low NE of Tampico is becoming more likely, and a
a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or
latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift
eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward.
Regardless of development, fresh to near gale-force winds and
rough to very rough seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed
through Sat night. Mariners should monitor the latest forecasts
from the National Hurricane Center.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail in the northwest and
central Caribbean being supported by weak 1017 mb high to the SE
of Bermuda. Moderate to fresh winds are also in the far E basin
due to the passage of a tropical wave that is bringing showers and
isolated tstms to the central Lesser Antilles and adjacent
waters. Middle level diffluent flow is generating scattered
showers in the Windward Passage. Otherwise, scattered heavy
showers are offshore Panama associated with the E extension of the
Pacific monsoon.
For the forecast, weak ridging SE of Bermuda will support
moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and central
Caribbean through this morning. Afterward, a cold front will move
across the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure
gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the
basin through early Thu. High pressure is forecast to redevelop
to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through
Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the easterly
winds over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri, then moderate
to fresh Fri night through Sat night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front stalls near 30N73W and extends to 30N79W where it
transitions to a cold front that extends to Cape Canaveral,
Florida. Scattered showers and isolated tstms along with fresh NE
winds are behind the front. Weak surface ridging dominates the
remainder subtropical waters, providing moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front will transition
to a cold front and move slowly E over the area today, then stall
from Bermuda to NE Florida tonight into Wed. Fresh to strong NE
winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining off NE
Florida through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight
seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, high
pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will
increase trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing
Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong
speeds again off NE Florida late on Fri as a low pressure,
possible tropical cyclone, moves northward across the Gulf of
America.
$$
Ramos
Active Tropical Systems
- Wed, 07 Oct 2026 23:31:21 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 06 Oct 2026 12:33:45 GMT - Tue, 06 Oct 2026 11:31:21 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 061131
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
southwestern Gulf of America. Continued development of this system
is expected, and a tropical depression is anticipated to form over
the next day or so while it drifts eastward. The low pressure area
could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days.
The disturbance is expected to turn to the north or northeast toward
the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. It is still too
early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but
interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should closely
monitor the progress of this system. The NOAA Gulfstream is
scheduled to sample the environment over the Gulf later today and an
Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system tomorrow.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Mon, 05 Oct 2026 15:38:31 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 051538
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1140 AM EDT MON 05 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-127
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST GULF OF AMERICA)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. 07/0000Z
B. NOAA9 01BBA SURV
C. 06/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION INTO THE SUSPECT AREA NEAR
21.7N 93.7W FOR 07/1400Z.
B. NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND SUSPECT AREA
FOR 08/0000Z, DEPARTING KLAL 07/1730Z.
C. POSSIBLE NOAA 43 P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO THE
SUSPECT AREA FOR 07/1800Z AND 08/0600Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT
07/1400Z AND 08/0200Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf