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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Thu, 17 Sep 2026 10:53:13 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 171053
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Sep 17 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave axis is near 30W, from 03N to 17N, moving westward
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to
16N between 26W and 38W.
A tropical is in the E Caribbean with axis near 67W, south of
22N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 14N to 24N between 56W and 70W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W to 09N37W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N37W to 09N56W. Aside from convection noted
in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection
is noted from 05N to 11N between 10W and 21W, and from 06N to 11N
between 44W and 54W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The gradient related to high pressure over the SE U.S. that
stretches a ridge SW to the Gulf is sustaining fresh NE to E winds
and moderate seas over the NE and north-central Gulf. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds, and slight seas, are noted.
For the forecast, fresh winds and moderate seas will spread
westward to the NW Gulf waters today before improving Fri into
Sat. A broad upper-level low will move towards Florida from the
western Atlantic today through Fri. This feature will lead to
increasing shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and
central Gulf waters.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between ridging north of the area along
with lower pressure over Colombia-Venezuela is supporting fresh to
near-gale trades over the S central Caribbean. Moderate to rough
seas are over these waters. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate
seas, are elsewhere east of 80W. W of 80W, gentle to moderate
winds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in NW
Colombia will generally maintain fresh to locally near gale-force
trades along with moderate to locally rough seas over most of the
central Caribbean through the end of the week. Otherwise, moderate
to fresh trades and moderate seas will continue across the
eastern Caribbean through the weekend while winds diminish and
seas subside elsewhere as the pressures gradient relaxes. A
tropical wave currently moving across the Mona Passage will reach
the western Caribbean over the weekend. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the passage of the wave.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from near Bermuda west-southwestward to
the N Bahamas. Fresh NE winds and moderate seas prevail N of the
front. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas, are SE of the front
N of 22N and W of 55W. Fresh NE winds, and moderate seas, are
noted near the Canary Islands, extending SW to near 38W.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between
high pressure over the southeastern U.S. and the stationary front
will maintain mostly fresh northeast winds and moderate seas W of
the front through today. Conditions will improve late today into
Fri as high pressure becomes the dominant feature across the basin
into the weekend. A broad upper-level low located just east of
the northern Bahamas in combination with a very moist and unstable
environment will continue to support scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms over most of the forecast waters the
next few days as it moves in a west to northwest direction.
$$
Ramos
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Thu, 17 Sep 2026 10:53:13 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 171053
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Sep 17 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave axis is near 30W, from 03N to 17N, moving westward
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to
16N between 26W and 38W.
A tropical is in the E Caribbean with axis near 67W, south of
22N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 14N to 24N between 56W and 70W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W to 09N37W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N37W to 09N56W. Aside from convection noted
in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection
is noted from 05N to 11N between 10W and 21W, and from 06N to 11N
between 44W and 54W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The gradient related to high pressure over the SE U.S. that
stretches a ridge SW to the Gulf is sustaining fresh NE to E winds
and moderate seas over the NE and north-central Gulf. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds, and slight seas, are noted.
For the forecast, fresh winds and moderate seas will spread
westward to the NW Gulf waters today before improving Fri into
Sat. A broad upper-level low will move towards Florida from the
western Atlantic today through Fri. This feature will lead to
increasing shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and
central Gulf waters.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between ridging north of the area along
with lower pressure over Colombia-Venezuela is supporting fresh to
near-gale trades over the S central Caribbean. Moderate to rough
seas are over these waters. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate
seas, are elsewhere east of 80W. W of 80W, gentle to moderate
winds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in NW
Colombia will generally maintain fresh to locally near gale-force
trades along with moderate to locally rough seas over most of the
central Caribbean through the end of the week. Otherwise, moderate
to fresh trades and moderate seas will continue across the
eastern Caribbean through the weekend while winds diminish and
seas subside elsewhere as the pressures gradient relaxes. A
tropical wave currently moving across the Mona Passage will reach
the western Caribbean over the weekend. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the passage of the wave.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from near Bermuda west-southwestward to
the N Bahamas. Fresh NE winds and moderate seas prevail N of the
front. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas, are SE of the front
N of 22N and W of 55W. Fresh NE winds, and moderate seas, are
noted near the Canary Islands, extending SW to near 38W.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between
high pressure over the southeastern U.S. and the stationary front
will maintain mostly fresh northeast winds and moderate seas W of
the front through today. Conditions will improve late today into
Fri as high pressure becomes the dominant feature across the basin
into the weekend. A broad upper-level low located just east of
the northern Bahamas in combination with a very moist and unstable
environment will continue to support scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms over most of the forecast waters the
next few days as it moves in a west to northwest direction.
$$
Ramos
Active Tropical Systems
- Fri, 18 Sep 2026 23:50:33 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 17 Sep 2026 13:20:05 GMT - Thu, 17 Sep 2026 11:50:33 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 171150
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 350 miles east of Bermuda have changed little in
organization during the past several hours. Environmental
conditions could support gradual development of the system during
the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form during
that time. The system is forecast to move slowly today, and then
possibly turn southward on Friday over the subtropical Atlantic. By
Sunday, environmental conditions are forecast to become less
favorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Thu, 17 Sep 2026 12:58:35 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 171258
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT THU 17 SEPTEMBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-109
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf