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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Tue, 03 Nov 2026 23:02:40 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 032302
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Nov 4 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Satellite imagery this evening
suggests that an area of low pressure is beginning to develop in
the vicinity of 27N67W, along an old frontal boundary that
extends from 25.5N60W to 27N66W and through the central Bahamas.
A very tight pressure gradient is developing between the low
pressure and 1030 mb high pressure to its north near 38N67W. As
the low develops tonight through Wed, the pressure gradient is
expected to yield near-gale to gale-force NE to E winds beginning
Wed afternoon, roughly over the waters from 29N to 31N between
63W and 69W. Seas are expected to build to 10-16 ft (3-5 m) with
these winds through Thu as the low pressure drifts east-
northeastward. The low pressure could acquire some subtropical
characteristics late this week as it continues to shift slowly
E-NE across the sub-tropical Atlantic. Gale-force winds may
continue across northern portions of this expected broad low
pressure into late Sat.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html
Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing
over the northwestern Caribbean will interact with enhanced low-
level moisture associated with broad cyclonic flow over the
western Caribbean during the next several days. This will favor
heavy precipitation developing across Central America, northern
South America, as well as Jamaica tonight through Friday. The
heaviest precipitation is expected across southern and western
portions of Costa Rica, Panama, and Nicaragua, with the bulk of
precipitation occurring today through Thursday. Heavy rainfall
will lead to possible life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the
International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic from coast of Sierra
Leone near 09.5N13.5W, and continues southwestward to 06N19W to
06N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 07N29N
to 11N59W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
occurring E of 30W between 04N and 08N, and along and within 200
nm N of the ITCZ between 34W and 59W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The interaction between strong high pressure over the eastern
United States and a trough over the northeastern Gulf is
maintaining fresh E to SE winds and seas of 4-6 ft over the NE
Gulf from offshore Tampa Bay to near Mobile Bay. Gentle to
moderate south to southeast winds and slight seas are elsewhere.
Scattered moderate convection is ongoing across the coastal
waters of west-central and southwest Florida. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are also moving into the SE Texas and SW
Louisiana coastal waters, just ahead of a cold front still inland
there and an upper-level trough and moving across the central US.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds over the NE
Gulf will shift north of the area tonight. A cold front will
enter the NW Gulf tonight through Wed, then weaken and dissipate
Wed night. Moderate northwest to north winds are expected west of
the front. Another cold front is expected to move across the Gulf
waters Fri through Sun night. Fresh to strong N winds will
develop west of the front and west of 93W Sat and Sun, with
moderate north to northeast winds elsewhere behind the front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Deep-layer troughing across the northwestern Caribbean supports
scattered moderate to strong convection from 12N to 18N between
74W and 84W. Scattered convection earlier this afternoon N of 20N
and across large portions of Cuba has diminished in intensity this
evening. In the SW Caribbean, broad cyclonic winds prevail W of
76W and extend to near 20N. Elsewhere, the modest pressure
gradient across the central and eastern basin supports only moderate
to fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate or weaker
winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail elsewhere across NW portions.
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin is
supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds, along with
moderate seas, over the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are over the western
Caribbean. The pressure gradient will further loosen across the
area by midweek as low pressure develops across the Atlantic S of
Bermuda. This will diminish the moderate trades across the
central and eastern Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the western Atlantic.
A frontal boundary is analyzed from a 1014 mb low near 31.5N35W
to 27.5N40W to 25.5N60W, where it then transitions to a shear
line that extends westward through the central Bahamas and to the
Florida Keys. Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of 22N
between 50W and 68W. Winds quickly increase from gentle to
moderate trades S of the front and shear line to fresh to strong
NE to E winds north of these features, due to strong high pressure
to the north. Seas of 8-11 ft are seen N of the front and shear
line between 58W and 77W, with 5-8 ft seas in NE swell south of
these features. Further to the east and north of the front, seas
are 7 to 10 ft east of 50W. The remainder of the Atlantic is
seeing gentle to moderate or weaker trade winds and seas of 4-7
ft in N to NE swell.
For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure is centered
north of Bermuda and extends a ridge W to E along 38N. Broad low
pressure is expected to develop along the frontal boundary
southwest of Bermuda, roughly from 27N to 28N, tonight through
Wed, and track slowly east-northeastward during the rest of the
week and into the weekend. A broad zone of strong to gale- force
winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking near 16 ft, will
develop north of the low pressure and expand eastward Wed through
Sat, impacting the waters mainly north of about 27N. The gale-
force winds will likely be north of 29N from Wed afternoon through
Sat night. A weakening cold front will move across the waters
between Florida and 75W Fri and Fri night, then dissipate Sat and
Sat night.
$$
Stripling
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Tue, 03 Nov 2026 23:02:40 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 032302
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Nov 4 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Satellite imagery this evening
suggests that an area of low pressure is beginning to develop in
the vicinity of 27N67W, along an old frontal boundary that
extends from 25.5N60W to 27N66W and through the central Bahamas.
A very tight pressure gradient is developing between the low
pressure and 1030 mb high pressure to its north near 38N67W. As
the low develops tonight through Wed, the pressure gradient is
expected to yield near-gale to gale-force NE to E winds beginning
Wed afternoon, roughly over the waters from 29N to 31N between
63W and 69W. Seas are expected to build to 10-16 ft (3-5 m) with
these winds through Thu as the low pressure drifts east-
northeastward. The low pressure could acquire some subtropical
characteristics late this week as it continues to shift slowly
E-NE across the sub-tropical Atlantic. Gale-force winds may
continue across northern portions of this expected broad low
pressure into late Sat.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html
Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing
over the northwestern Caribbean will interact with enhanced low-
level moisture associated with broad cyclonic flow over the
western Caribbean during the next several days. This will favor
heavy precipitation developing across Central America, northern
South America, as well as Jamaica tonight through Friday. The
heaviest precipitation is expected across southern and western
portions of Costa Rica, Panama, and Nicaragua, with the bulk of
precipitation occurring today through Thursday. Heavy rainfall
will lead to possible life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the
International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic from coast of Sierra
Leone near 09.5N13.5W, and continues southwestward to 06N19W to
06N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 07N29N
to 11N59W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
occurring E of 30W between 04N and 08N, and along and within 200
nm N of the ITCZ between 34W and 59W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The interaction between strong high pressure over the eastern
United States and a trough over the northeastern Gulf is
maintaining fresh E to SE winds and seas of 4-6 ft over the NE
Gulf from offshore Tampa Bay to near Mobile Bay. Gentle to
moderate south to southeast winds and slight seas are elsewhere.
Scattered moderate convection is ongoing across the coastal
waters of west-central and southwest Florida. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are also moving into the SE Texas and SW
Louisiana coastal waters, just ahead of a cold front still inland
there and an upper-level trough and moving across the central US.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds over the NE
Gulf will shift north of the area tonight. A cold front will
enter the NW Gulf tonight through Wed, then weaken and dissipate
Wed night. Moderate northwest to north winds are expected west of
the front. Another cold front is expected to move across the Gulf
waters Fri through Sun night. Fresh to strong N winds will
develop west of the front and west of 93W Sat and Sun, with
moderate north to northeast winds elsewhere behind the front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Deep-layer troughing across the northwestern Caribbean supports
scattered moderate to strong convection from 12N to 18N between
74W and 84W. Scattered convection earlier this afternoon N of 20N
and across large portions of Cuba has diminished in intensity this
evening. In the SW Caribbean, broad cyclonic winds prevail W of
76W and extend to near 20N. Elsewhere, the modest pressure
gradient across the central and eastern basin supports only moderate
to fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate or weaker
winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail elsewhere across NW portions.
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin is
supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds, along with
moderate seas, over the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are over the western
Caribbean. The pressure gradient will further loosen across the
area by midweek as low pressure develops across the Atlantic S of
Bermuda. This will diminish the moderate trades across the
central and eastern Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the western Atlantic.
A frontal boundary is analyzed from a 1014 mb low near 31.5N35W
to 27.5N40W to 25.5N60W, where it then transitions to a shear
line that extends westward through the central Bahamas and to the
Florida Keys. Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of 22N
between 50W and 68W. Winds quickly increase from gentle to
moderate trades S of the front and shear line to fresh to strong
NE to E winds north of these features, due to strong high pressure
to the north. Seas of 8-11 ft are seen N of the front and shear
line between 58W and 77W, with 5-8 ft seas in NE swell south of
these features. Further to the east and north of the front, seas
are 7 to 10 ft east of 50W. The remainder of the Atlantic is
seeing gentle to moderate or weaker trade winds and seas of 4-7
ft in N to NE swell.
For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure is centered
north of Bermuda and extends a ridge W to E along 38N. Broad low
pressure is expected to develop along the frontal boundary
southwest of Bermuda, roughly from 27N to 28N, tonight through
Wed, and track slowly east-northeastward during the rest of the
week and into the weekend. A broad zone of strong to gale- force
winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking near 16 ft, will
develop north of the low pressure and expand eastward Wed through
Sat, impacting the waters mainly north of about 27N. The gale-
force winds will likely be north of 29N from Wed afternoon through
Sat night. A weakening cold front will move across the waters
between Florida and 75W Fri and Fri night, then dissipate Sat and
Sat night.
$$
Stripling
Active Tropical Systems
- Thu, 05 Nov 2026 11:15:35 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 03 Nov 2026 23:20:55 GMT - Tue, 03 Nov 2026 23:15:35 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 032315
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Western and Central Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the next day or so
along a weakening front a few hundred miles south of Bermuda. This
system could gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics late
this week or this weekend while it moves slowly eastward over the
western and central subtropical Atlantic. By early next week,
environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for
further development. For more information on this system, including
Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Tue, 03 Nov 2026 16:15:32 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
547
NOUS42 KNHC 031615
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EST TUE 03 NOVEMBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z NOVEMBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-156
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
NOTE: THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC WINTER SEASON REQUIREMENTS ARE
NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf