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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sun, 27 Sep 2026 23:06:03 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 272305
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Sep 28 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Depression Fay is centered near 28.9N 44.0W at 27/2100
UTC or 1010 nm WSW of the Azores, moving S at 4 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas to 7 ft are within 60
nm of the depression. Numerous moderate convection is from 27N to
29N between 43W and 46W.
Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is analyzed along 70W, south of 16N, moving west
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed in advance
of this wave in the SW Caribbean.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from 16N25W to 08N42W. The ITCZ extends
from 08N42W to 11N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
10N to 15N between 25W and 30W and from 10N to 14N between 55W and
60W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The surface reflection of a weakening stationary front has
dissipated over the southern basin, but scattered moderate
convection prevails S of 22N between 87W and 93W. A surface trough
extends across the SW basin. Light to gentle winds prevail, with
seas less than 2 ft.
For the forecast, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate
seas will prevail into tonight, then become gentle to moderate SE
winds across the basin through the early part of the week as high
pressure builds over the southeast U.S. Looking ahead, expect
moderate to fresh winds and building seas over mostly the western
Gulf starting mid week, as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead
of a cold front moving through the Southern Plains and
approaching the northwest Gulf by late Fri.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A weak pressure gradient, due to the passage of a cold front N
of the region, is translating to gentle to moderate trades over the
eastern and central basin as well as in the Gulf of Honduras, and
light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft basin- wide,
except slight in the NW Caribbean.
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient, due to the passage of
a cold front N of the region, will support gentle to moderate
trades across the Caribbean through Mon night. Expect gentle to
moderate E to SE winds thereafter through mid week as the high
pressure build north of the area. Looking ahead, the pattern will
allow moderate to fresh winds and building seas by Thu, with rough
seas possible in the Yucatan Channel and far northwest Caribbean
Thu night through Fri.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Depression Fay.
A surface trough extends from 30N62W to the SE Bahamas and central
Cuba. Numerous thunderstorms associated with this boundary are N
of 24N between 62W and 72W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted E
of the trough, with rough seas behind it. The remnants of
Gonzalo are near 21N23W 1010 mb. It still has moderate to fresh
cyclonic winds and rough seas. Elsewhere across the basin,
moderate winds and seas dominate.
For the forecast west of 55W, gentle to moderate winds and slight
seas will dominate the region starting tonight. Looking ahead,
high pressure will build north of the area supporting moderate to
fresh E winds and 3-5 ft seas south of 25N by mid week.
$$
Konarik
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sun, 27 Sep 2026 23:06:03 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 272305
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Sep 28 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Depression Fay is centered near 28.9N 44.0W at 27/2100
UTC or 1010 nm WSW of the Azores, moving S at 4 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas to 7 ft are within 60
nm of the depression. Numerous moderate convection is from 27N to
29N between 43W and 46W.
Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is analyzed along 70W, south of 16N, moving west
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed in advance
of this wave in the SW Caribbean.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from 16N25W to 08N42W. The ITCZ extends
from 08N42W to 11N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
10N to 15N between 25W and 30W and from 10N to 14N between 55W and
60W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The surface reflection of a weakening stationary front has
dissipated over the southern basin, but scattered moderate
convection prevails S of 22N between 87W and 93W. A surface trough
extends across the SW basin. Light to gentle winds prevail, with
seas less than 2 ft.
For the forecast, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate
seas will prevail into tonight, then become gentle to moderate SE
winds across the basin through the early part of the week as high
pressure builds over the southeast U.S. Looking ahead, expect
moderate to fresh winds and building seas over mostly the western
Gulf starting mid week, as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead
of a cold front moving through the Southern Plains and
approaching the northwest Gulf by late Fri.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A weak pressure gradient, due to the passage of a cold front N
of the region, is translating to gentle to moderate trades over the
eastern and central basin as well as in the Gulf of Honduras, and
light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft basin- wide,
except slight in the NW Caribbean.
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient, due to the passage of
a cold front N of the region, will support gentle to moderate
trades across the Caribbean through Mon night. Expect gentle to
moderate E to SE winds thereafter through mid week as the high
pressure build north of the area. Looking ahead, the pattern will
allow moderate to fresh winds and building seas by Thu, with rough
seas possible in the Yucatan Channel and far northwest Caribbean
Thu night through Fri.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Depression Fay.
A surface trough extends from 30N62W to the SE Bahamas and central
Cuba. Numerous thunderstorms associated with this boundary are N
of 24N between 62W and 72W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted E
of the trough, with rough seas behind it. The remnants of
Gonzalo are near 21N23W 1010 mb. It still has moderate to fresh
cyclonic winds and rough seas. Elsewhere across the basin,
moderate winds and seas dominate.
For the forecast west of 55W, gentle to moderate winds and slight
seas will dominate the region starting tonight. Looking ahead,
high pressure will build north of the area supporting moderate to
fresh E winds and 3-5 ft seas south of 25N by mid week.
$$
Konarik
Active Tropical Systems
- Mon, 28 Sep 2026 02:37:05 +0000: Tropical Depression Fay Graphics - NHC Atlantic
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Sep 2026 02:37:05 GMT - Mon, 28 Sep 2026 02:36:16 +0000: Tropical Depression Fay Forecast Discussion Number 32 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Sep 28 2026000 WTNT41 KNHC 280236 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Mon Sep 28 2026 Little can be said about Fay that hasn't been said already across previous advisories. The storm continues to undergo rounds of diurnal, pulsating convection, allowing for it to remain a tropical depression despite being disorganized and weak. Scatterometry data from around 2300 UTC also confirms that a closed, albeit weak, circulation persists. With max winds from this scatterometry pass reading around 20 kt, the initial intensity for Fay was set at 25 kt. The initial motion was set at 190/5 kt. Fay is beginning to pick up speed as it escapes the influence of the subtropical Atlantic high and is carried more by the prevailing easterlies. A brief southeastward shift was evident on satellite just a few hours ago, but now Fay is beginning its forecasted southwestward to west-southwestward turn. The only notable change in the latest track forecast was to increase Fay's forward speed during the latter half of the forecast period, to fall better in line with the HCCA guidance. Global models continue to suggest that Fay will degenerate into a trough during the middle of the week, with post-tropical transition occuring just before. Fluctuations in Fay's intensity are expected so long as these diurnal cycles of convection continue, however with now two consecutive scatterometry passes depicting Fay's max winds at around 21 kt, the intensity forecast was left at 25 kt throughout the period, with little in the guidance and synoptic environment to suggest that Fay will strengthen meaningfully beyond that before finally dissipating. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 28.5N 43.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 27.6N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 26.3N 45.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 25.2N 46.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0000Z 24.5N 48.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/1200Z 24.3N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Evans/Cangialosi
- Mon, 28 Sep 2026 02:35:16 +0000: Tropical Depression Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 28 2026000 FONT11 KNHC 280235 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0300 UTC MON SEP 28 2026 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER EVANS/CANGIALOSI - Mon, 28 Sep 2026 02:34:45 +0000: Tropical Depression Fay Public Advisory Number 32 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Sep 28 2026000 WTNT31 KNHC 280234 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Mon Sep 28 2026 ...FAY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 43.8W ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 190 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 43.8 West. The depression is moving toward the south near 6 mph (9 km/h). A south-southwest to southwest motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest with an increase in forward speed by mid-week. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Fay will likely become a remnant low in a day or two, and dissipate later in the week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Evans/Cangialosi
- Mon, 28 Sep 2026 02:34:45 +0000: Summary for Tropical Depression Fay (AT1/AL062026) - NHC Atlantic
...FAY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW... As of 3:00 AM GMT Mon Sep 28 the center of Fay was located near 28.5, -43.8 with movement S at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sun, 27 Sep 2026 14:47:36 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 271447
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1050 AM EDT SUN 27 SEPTEMBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-119
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS (NO CHANGES)
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE POLO
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42
A. 28/1800Z
B. NOAA2 0517E POLO
C. 28/1330Z
D. 25.5N 112.9W
E. 28/1600Z TO 28/2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR & FIX
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS:
A. THE TEAL 78 MISSION INTO HURRICANE NOLO TASKED IN TCPOD
26-119 FOR THE 27/2330Z AND 28/0530Z REQUIREMENTS WAS
CANCELED BY NHC AT 27/1145Z.
B. NOAA 42 WILL CONDUCT AN 8-HOUR P-3 RESEARCH MISSION INTO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18-E MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING,
DEPARING KHRL AT 29/0100Z.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf