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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sun, 23 Aug 2026 15:53:03 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 231552
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1300 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W south of
19N, moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 31W and 39W, and from
11N to 13N between 34W and 36W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W south of
20N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is near the northern portion of the wave from 19N to
23N between 47W and 53W. This wave was seen nicely at the surface
by recent ASCAT scatterometer data.
An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 66W
south of 20N along eastern Puerto Rico to north-central Venezuela,
moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt. A small patch of scattered
moderate convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 67W and 71W.
A northwestern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 86W
south of 21N from near the Yucatan Channel to central Honduras,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Only isolated to widely scattered
showers are near the wave axis. To the south over the far
southwestern section of the Caribbean basin, scattered to numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted just behind the wave and
near the eastern extend of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough
from 06N to 13N between 79W and 89W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 16N16W and continues southwestward to 06N42W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N42W to 07N51W, then resumes west of a tropical
wave from 09N55W to the coast of Venezuela at 09N61W. Aside from
the convection described in the section above, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 19W and 24N
approaching portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and from 07N to
10N between 23W and 26W. This convection may be associated with or
out ahead of the next tropical wave to emerge off the coast of
Africa.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Relatively weak high pressure, anchored by a 1018 mb high center
over the north-central Gulf at 27.5N90.5W, is generally allowing
for anticyclonic light to gentle winds across the basin Slight
seas are present throughout the basin per buoy observations.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain are active
over the Yucatan Peninsula and the southwestern Gulf offshore
Veracruz, Mexico where a surface trough is present, and due to
abundant upper moisture from the eastern Pacific which continues
to advect eastward over southern Mexico. Isolated to widely
scattered convection is also present near the coast of Florida
just south of Apalachee Bay, and from offshore Tampa Bay west-
southwestward about 300 nm, likely induced by a weak low-level
trough.
For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over
central Gulf through midweek, with the western Atlantic ridge
building westward into the basin thereafter. This will maintain
gentle to moderate winds and mainly slight seas through the week.
A surface trough will generate fresh winds north and west of the
Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. The
trough will push further offshore through the Bay of Campeche
during the overnight hours.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on
convection in the basin, mainly confined to the southwest portion.
The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western
Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America
is sustaining fresh to locally strong trades primarily over the
south-central Caribbean. Seas up to around 8 ft are with these
trades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere,
except over the northwestern part of the Caribbean north of 20N,
where light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are
present.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic
high pressure and low pressure in northern South America continue
to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over
the south-central Caribbean through the week. Elsewhere, mainly
moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside
from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the
basin. Winds will occasionally increase through the week following
passages of a series of relatively weak tropical waves that will
quickly move west across the basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Low pressure of 1015 mb, Invest AL95, is centered near 28N60W.
Some fresh to locally strong winds are found near this low, north
of 28N between 55W and 60W. Scattered to numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is present north of 23N between 49W and
62W. Elongated surface troughing extends from north of the area
well offshore the Carolinas through 31N78W to near Fort Pierce,
Florida. Some isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen on infrared satellite imagery from the
northern Bahamas northward within 120-240 nm either side of the
trough. To the east, a cold front extends from near the Iberian
Peninsula southwestward through 31N16W to 29N26W to 1020 mb low
pressure near 30N29W, then northwestward as a frontal trough.
Limited convection is near these features. Rough seas are found
north of the front. Across the remainder of the basin, high
pressure weak ridging dominates with a 1020 high north of the area
near 35N44W. Moderate to fresh trades are found from 10N to 22N
north of the monsoon trough between the Cabo Verde ISlands and
42W, and in a belt from there to near the low pressure area, AL95.
Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters.
Seas are slight north of 20N and west of 60W, and moderate across
the remainder of the waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure of 1015 mb
centered near 28N60W is forecast to drift northwest today, then
accelerate northward and out of the basin Mon. There is a low
chance of tropical development of this low over the next 48 hours.
Otherwise, high pressure will maintain light to gentle winds N of
23N through the period. To the south, moderate to fresh trades
will prevail, with locally strong winds pulsing at times offshore
Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. The northern portion of
a tropical wave will move across the waters S of about 23N and E
of the Bahamas early next week freshening the trades. By Wed, the
northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE
portion of the area, increasing the trades over those waters.
$$
Lewitsky
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sun, 23 Aug 2026 15:53:03 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 231552
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1300 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W south of
19N, moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 31W and 39W, and from
11N to 13N between 34W and 36W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W south of
20N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is near the northern portion of the wave from 19N to
23N between 47W and 53W. This wave was seen nicely at the surface
by recent ASCAT scatterometer data.
An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 66W
south of 20N along eastern Puerto Rico to north-central Venezuela,
moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt. A small patch of scattered
moderate convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 67W and 71W.
A northwestern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 86W
south of 21N from near the Yucatan Channel to central Honduras,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Only isolated to widely scattered
showers are near the wave axis. To the south over the far
southwestern section of the Caribbean basin, scattered to numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted just behind the wave and
near the eastern extend of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough
from 06N to 13N between 79W and 89W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 16N16W and continues southwestward to 06N42W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N42W to 07N51W, then resumes west of a tropical
wave from 09N55W to the coast of Venezuela at 09N61W. Aside from
the convection described in the section above, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 19W and 24N
approaching portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and from 07N to
10N between 23W and 26W. This convection may be associated with or
out ahead of the next tropical wave to emerge off the coast of
Africa.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Relatively weak high pressure, anchored by a 1018 mb high center
over the north-central Gulf at 27.5N90.5W, is generally allowing
for anticyclonic light to gentle winds across the basin Slight
seas are present throughout the basin per buoy observations.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain are active
over the Yucatan Peninsula and the southwestern Gulf offshore
Veracruz, Mexico where a surface trough is present, and due to
abundant upper moisture from the eastern Pacific which continues
to advect eastward over southern Mexico. Isolated to widely
scattered convection is also present near the coast of Florida
just south of Apalachee Bay, and from offshore Tampa Bay west-
southwestward about 300 nm, likely induced by a weak low-level
trough.
For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over
central Gulf through midweek, with the western Atlantic ridge
building westward into the basin thereafter. This will maintain
gentle to moderate winds and mainly slight seas through the week.
A surface trough will generate fresh winds north and west of the
Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. The
trough will push further offshore through the Bay of Campeche
during the overnight hours.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on
convection in the basin, mainly confined to the southwest portion.
The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western
Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America
is sustaining fresh to locally strong trades primarily over the
south-central Caribbean. Seas up to around 8 ft are with these
trades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere,
except over the northwestern part of the Caribbean north of 20N,
where light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are
present.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic
high pressure and low pressure in northern South America continue
to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over
the south-central Caribbean through the week. Elsewhere, mainly
moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside
from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the
basin. Winds will occasionally increase through the week following
passages of a series of relatively weak tropical waves that will
quickly move west across the basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Low pressure of 1015 mb, Invest AL95, is centered near 28N60W.
Some fresh to locally strong winds are found near this low, north
of 28N between 55W and 60W. Scattered to numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is present north of 23N between 49W and
62W. Elongated surface troughing extends from north of the area
well offshore the Carolinas through 31N78W to near Fort Pierce,
Florida. Some isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen on infrared satellite imagery from the
northern Bahamas northward within 120-240 nm either side of the
trough. To the east, a cold front extends from near the Iberian
Peninsula southwestward through 31N16W to 29N26W to 1020 mb low
pressure near 30N29W, then northwestward as a frontal trough.
Limited convection is near these features. Rough seas are found
north of the front. Across the remainder of the basin, high
pressure weak ridging dominates with a 1020 high north of the area
near 35N44W. Moderate to fresh trades are found from 10N to 22N
north of the monsoon trough between the Cabo Verde ISlands and
42W, and in a belt from there to near the low pressure area, AL95.
Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters.
Seas are slight north of 20N and west of 60W, and moderate across
the remainder of the waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure of 1015 mb
centered near 28N60W is forecast to drift northwest today, then
accelerate northward and out of the basin Mon. There is a low
chance of tropical development of this low over the next 48 hours.
Otherwise, high pressure will maintain light to gentle winds N of
23N through the period. To the south, moderate to fresh trades
will prevail, with locally strong winds pulsing at times offshore
Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. The northern portion of
a tropical wave will move across the waters S of about 23N and E
of the Bahamas early next week freshening the trades. By Wed, the
northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE
portion of the area, increasing the trades over those waters.
$$
Lewitsky
Active Tropical Systems
- Mon, 24 Aug 2026 23:32:25 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 23 Aug 2026 17:12:42 GMT - Sun, 23 Aug 2026 11:32:25 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
048
ABNT20 KNHC 231132
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northeastern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west
of the coast of Portugal is producing limited shower activity. This
system has only a slight chance of acquiring subtropical
characteristics later today while it moves eastward to east-
northeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern
Spain. By tonight, the low will encounter unfavorable environmental
conditions, and further development is not expected. For more
information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast
of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is possible
during the next few days as it drifts northwestward today and then
accelerates northward early this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday, and an area of low pressure could form in association with
the wave early this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle to latter portions of the week while the
system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at
https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt
$$
Forecaster Blake
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sun, 23 Aug 2026 13:15:28 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 231315
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT SUN 23 AUGUST 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z AUGUST 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-084
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf