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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Fri, 17 Jul 2026 23:11:32 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
980
AXNT20 KNHC 172311
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jul 18 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the
Atlantic high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low
will continue to support NE to E winds pulsing to gale-force
across the waters N of Colombia tonight and Sat night. Otherwise,
strong to near-gale force trade winds and rough seas will prevail
across the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon before
contracting to south of 15N. Rough to very rough seas in the 12
to 14 ft range will develop during the times of peak winds.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A well defined tropical wave is moving across the Cabo Verde Islands.
Its axis is along 23.5W, south of 18N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt.
A broad area of low pressure, associated with this tropical wave,
is located near the southern Cabo Verde Islands. The low continues
to produce a limited and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Significant development
of this system is not expected before environmental conditions become
even less favorable for development over the weekend. Regardless of
development, this system will likely produce some gusty winds and
locally heavy rain over the southern Cabo Verde Islands over the next
several hours.
Another tropical wave is along 46.5W, south of 18N, moving westward
at 15 to 20 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and continues
southwestward to a 1011 mb low pressure located near the southern
Cabo Verde Islands to 09N42W. The ITCZ extends from 09N48W to
09N59W. Scattered moderate convection is observed N of the ITCZ
to about 11N.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A large area of showers and thunderstorms is affecting most of
the Florida Peninsula and the eastern Gulf. This convective
activity is associated with an upper-level low and a surface
trough. A ridge dominates the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1022 mb
high pressure located over the north-central Gulf near 28N91W.
Under this weather patter, gentle to moderate winds are noted
per scatterometer data over much of the basin, with the exception
of light to gentle winds across the north-central Gulf near the
high pressure center. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3
ft N of 25 E of 93W, and over the SE Gulf.
For the forecast, low pressure across the NE Gulf will remain nearly
stationary into the start of next week. Some gradual development
of this system is possible while it meanders northward, bringing
heavy rain to portions of the Florida west coast during the next
several days. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate, bringing
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through the
period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A Gale Warning remains in effect for the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features
section for more details.
The most recent satellite derived wind data provide observations
of fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean while an
altimeter pass indicates seas up to 12 ft with these winds, that
are the result of the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian low. Moderate to fresh trade winds and
moderate seas are seen over the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or
weaker winds are and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.
The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from CIMSS shows African dust over
most of the Caribbean Sea resulting in hazy conditions and
reduced air quality.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge oriented along 27N and the Colombian low will support NE
winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia
tonight and Sat night. Otherwise, strong to near-gale force
trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the
central Caribbean into early Mon before contracting to south of
15N. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening
this weekend in the Windward Passage.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
High pressure dominates the Atlantic forecast waters, with a 1025
mb center located SE of Bermuda near 28N64W. Moderate to fresh
winds are observed S of 24N while light to gentle winds are seen
elsewhere. Seas are generally moderate based on altimeter data
and Sofar buoy observations. African dust is also affecting most
of the Atlantic forecast region, particularly E of 70W and over
the SE Bahamas, suppressing the development of showers and
thunderstorms. A few showers are occurring E of the Bahamas and W
of 70W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical
ridge will gradually weaken and drift northward this weekend, as
a broad surface trough forms between 50W and 60W. This trough
will then drift westward next week. Moderate to fresh trades will
prevail S of 24N, with gentle winds to the N. Pulsing strong
winds are expected during the evenings this weekend N of Hispaniola
and in the Windward Passage.
$$
GR
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Fri, 17 Jul 2026 23:11:32 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
980
AXNT20 KNHC 172311
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jul 18 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the
Atlantic high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low
will continue to support NE to E winds pulsing to gale-force
across the waters N of Colombia tonight and Sat night. Otherwise,
strong to near-gale force trade winds and rough seas will prevail
across the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon before
contracting to south of 15N. Rough to very rough seas in the 12
to 14 ft range will develop during the times of peak winds.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A well defined tropical wave is moving across the Cabo Verde Islands.
Its axis is along 23.5W, south of 18N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt.
A broad area of low pressure, associated with this tropical wave,
is located near the southern Cabo Verde Islands. The low continues
to produce a limited and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Significant development
of this system is not expected before environmental conditions become
even less favorable for development over the weekend. Regardless of
development, this system will likely produce some gusty winds and
locally heavy rain over the southern Cabo Verde Islands over the next
several hours.
Another tropical wave is along 46.5W, south of 18N, moving westward
at 15 to 20 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and continues
southwestward to a 1011 mb low pressure located near the southern
Cabo Verde Islands to 09N42W. The ITCZ extends from 09N48W to
09N59W. Scattered moderate convection is observed N of the ITCZ
to about 11N.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A large area of showers and thunderstorms is affecting most of
the Florida Peninsula and the eastern Gulf. This convective
activity is associated with an upper-level low and a surface
trough. A ridge dominates the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1022 mb
high pressure located over the north-central Gulf near 28N91W.
Under this weather patter, gentle to moderate winds are noted
per scatterometer data over much of the basin, with the exception
of light to gentle winds across the north-central Gulf near the
high pressure center. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3
ft N of 25 E of 93W, and over the SE Gulf.
For the forecast, low pressure across the NE Gulf will remain nearly
stationary into the start of next week. Some gradual development
of this system is possible while it meanders northward, bringing
heavy rain to portions of the Florida west coast during the next
several days. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate, bringing
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through the
period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A Gale Warning remains in effect for the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features
section for more details.
The most recent satellite derived wind data provide observations
of fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean while an
altimeter pass indicates seas up to 12 ft with these winds, that
are the result of the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian low. Moderate to fresh trade winds and
moderate seas are seen over the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or
weaker winds are and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.
The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from CIMSS shows African dust over
most of the Caribbean Sea resulting in hazy conditions and
reduced air quality.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge oriented along 27N and the Colombian low will support NE
winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia
tonight and Sat night. Otherwise, strong to near-gale force
trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the
central Caribbean into early Mon before contracting to south of
15N. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening
this weekend in the Windward Passage.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
High pressure dominates the Atlantic forecast waters, with a 1025
mb center located SE of Bermuda near 28N64W. Moderate to fresh
winds are observed S of 24N while light to gentle winds are seen
elsewhere. Seas are generally moderate based on altimeter data
and Sofar buoy observations. African dust is also affecting most
of the Atlantic forecast region, particularly E of 70W and over
the SE Bahamas, suppressing the development of showers and
thunderstorms. A few showers are occurring E of the Bahamas and W
of 70W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical
ridge will gradually weaken and drift northward this weekend, as
a broad surface trough forms between 50W and 60W. This trough
will then drift westward next week. Moderate to fresh trades will
prevail S of 24N, with gentle winds to the N. Pulsing strong
winds are expected during the evenings this weekend N of Hispaniola
and in the Windward Passage.
$$
GR
Active Tropical Systems
- Sun, 19 Jul 2026 11:18:00 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 18 Jul 2026 03:22:46 GMT - Fri, 17 Jul 2026 23:18:00 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
836
ABNT20 KNHC 172317
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northern Gulf of America and near Florida:
Showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of America and
portions of the Florida Peninsula are associated with an upper-level
low and a surface trough. Surface observations indicate that
pressures are high in the area and that currently there are no signs
of a surface circulation. However, some gradual development of this
system is possible while it meanders northward, bringing heavy rain
to portions of the Florida west coast during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located near the western Cabo Verde Islands. The low is producing
limited and disorganized showers and thunderstorms while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions are
becoming less conducive, and development of this system is no longer
anticipated. However, this system will likely produce some gusty
winds and locally heavy rain over the Cabo Verde Islands tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Fri, 17 Jul 2026 13:24:27 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 171324
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT FRI 17 JULY 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JULY 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-047
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER THE NE GULF OF AMERICA NEAR 28.0N 84.5W FOR 19/1800Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf