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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sun, 18 Oct 2026 04:28:22 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 180428
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Oct 18 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends across the
southern Gulf tonight from near Naples, Florida, to 21N94W, then
is nearly stationary southward across the central Bay of Campeche
to the Mexican coast along 93.5W. Strong high pressure dominates
most of the eastern U.S. and extends across the Gulf behind the
front. This is forcing near storm-force NW winds behind the front
from Coatzacoalcos to offshore of Veracruz, Mexico, where seas
have built to 18-22 ft. A broader area of gale force winds and
very rough seas are present behind the front offshore Mexico from
Tampico to the central Bay of Campeche. Frequent gusts in
excess of gale force are occurring within 90 nm of the NE Gulf
coast, where a Gale Warning is also in effect. Elsewhere across
the Gulf NE to N winds of 20 to 30 kt prevail, with seas of 8 to
15 ft. These gales will continue into Mon morning, before the cold
front clears the basin and winds begin to diminish. Peak seas may
exceed 25 ft in the Bay of Campeche late tonight and Sun, with
rough seas prevailing across large portions of the basin through
Tue.
Atlantic Gale Warning: This same cold front continues to move SE
across the western Atlantic waters, and extends from 31N75W to
the SE Florida coast near Lake Worth and across S Florida. Recent
satellite scatterometer data shows N winds 20 to 30 kt behind the
front, with frequent gusts over gale-force N of 28N and west of
75W, where a Gale Warning is in effect. Seas behind the front have
built quickly to 8 to 12 ft. The front will reach from 31N72W to
the Straits of Florida by early Sun morning, and from near 31N70W
to western Cuba by early Mon morning, then stall and dissipate
through mid week. Gale-force gusts are expected to continue across
the northwestern zones through Sun. Seas behind the front are
expected to build to 10 to 18 ft in N to NE swell on Sun, and
higher in the Gulfstream.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
08.5N16W. The ITCZ then extends from 07N17W to 05.5N32W to
10N44W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to
07N and E of 17W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 07N to 12.5N between 36W and 55W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
See Special Features section above for information on the Gale
Warnings in effect for portions of the Gulf of America and the
western Atlantic, behind a cold front.
Scattered to locally numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
are present along and within 60- nm S of the cold front, from SW
Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Recent buoy data shows seas are 7
to 12 ft to the N of 25N and much higher across the SW Gulf, as
described above. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail south of the
front across the SE basin and the eastern Bay of Campeche, where
seas are 3 to 6 ft and higher near the front.
For the forecast, the front will continue to move southeastward,
and slow down its forward progress as it reaches from the Florida
Straits to Merida, Mexico by early Sun, then drift to the
southeast of the Gulf through Tue as it weakens. Gale-force winds
off Veracruz will persist over the SW Gulf through Sun night, with
sea subsiding below 20 ft. Gales will diminish in the west-
central Gulf by early Sun, and frequent gusts to gale force
elsewhere behind the front should diminish by Sun early in the
afternoon. Strong NE winds and rough seas will persist elsewhere
north of the front into early next week. Looking ahead, strong
high pressure will build over the lower Mississippi Valley behind
the front, maintaining fresh NE to E winds mainly over the
eastern half of the Gulf into mid-week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Deep-layer moisture is interacting with an upper-level trough
across the Yucatan Channel and Peninsula to produce divergence is
inducing scattered moderate convection across the Gulf of
Honduras south of 18N. Meanwhile, favorable upper level conditions
are supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms occurring in a
180 nm wide band from NE Colombia to the Honduras-Nicaragau
border. To the east and northeast, a broad upper trough is
producing very stable conditions, and fair skies. At the surface,
moderate to fresh trades prevail across the central basin between
64W and 78W, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere gentle to
moderate easterly trades and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, as the cold front has moved across the Western
Atlantic and the Gulf of America, the pressure gradient across the
Caribbean has relaxed, supporting moderate to fresh winds
offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere through
Thu. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a
surface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean tonight.
The Gulf of America cold front will likely reach western Cuba and
the Yucatan Channel by Tue then gradually dissipate. Large seas
in northerly swell associated with the front are expected to move
through the Yucatan Channel with hazardous conditions midday Sun
into early Tue.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning for waters offshore NE Florida.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is ongoing along and E of the cold front extending from 31N75W to
the SE Florida coast near Lake Worth. Convection is generally
occurring from the cold front to the NW Bahamas and then
northeastward to near 31N70W. Light SE to S winds and seas 4 ft or
less prevail E of the front to 65W. More scattered moderate
isolated strong convection extends from 19N to 29N between 45W and
57W, in association with a deep- layer trough across that area.
Further to the east, a broad area of scattered moderate convection
is noted from 13N to 25N between 32W and 42W, in association with
another deep-layer trough.
Strong high pressure located NW of the Azores extends a broad
ridge southwestward to the central Bahamas, but drapes across a
series of surface troughs from 20N and 30W between 38W and 60W.
The pressure gradient N of these trough is yielding moderate to
fresh easterly winds with seas of 6 to 8 ft in N swell. S of the
area, southward of 25N, gentle to moderate easterly trades prevail
across the Tropical Atlantic, where seas are 4 to 6 ft between 30W
and 65W. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to
7 ft are found N of 20N and E of 30W to Africa, with gentle to
moderate winds and seas found there S of 20N.
For the forecast west of 55W, the strong cold front will continue
to move southeastward and reach from 31N72W to the Straits of
Florida by early Sun morning, and from near 31N70W to western Cuba
by early Mon morning, then stall and dissipate through mid week.
Strong to near-gale force winds and very rough seas to 18 ft will
follow the front, affecting mainly the waters west of 65W through
Tue. Associated northerly swell will linger through much of the
week.
$$
Stripling
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sun, 18 Oct 2026 04:28:22 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 180428
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Oct 18 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends across the
southern Gulf tonight from near Naples, Florida, to 21N94W, then
is nearly stationary southward across the central Bay of Campeche
to the Mexican coast along 93.5W. Strong high pressure dominates
most of the eastern U.S. and extends across the Gulf behind the
front. This is forcing near storm-force NW winds behind the front
from Coatzacoalcos to offshore of Veracruz, Mexico, where seas
have built to 18-22 ft. A broader area of gale force winds and
very rough seas are present behind the front offshore Mexico from
Tampico to the central Bay of Campeche. Frequent gusts in
excess of gale force are occurring within 90 nm of the NE Gulf
coast, where a Gale Warning is also in effect. Elsewhere across
the Gulf NE to N winds of 20 to 30 kt prevail, with seas of 8 to
15 ft. These gales will continue into Mon morning, before the cold
front clears the basin and winds begin to diminish. Peak seas may
exceed 25 ft in the Bay of Campeche late tonight and Sun, with
rough seas prevailing across large portions of the basin through
Tue.
Atlantic Gale Warning: This same cold front continues to move SE
across the western Atlantic waters, and extends from 31N75W to
the SE Florida coast near Lake Worth and across S Florida. Recent
satellite scatterometer data shows N winds 20 to 30 kt behind the
front, with frequent gusts over gale-force N of 28N and west of
75W, where a Gale Warning is in effect. Seas behind the front have
built quickly to 8 to 12 ft. The front will reach from 31N72W to
the Straits of Florida by early Sun morning, and from near 31N70W
to western Cuba by early Mon morning, then stall and dissipate
through mid week. Gale-force gusts are expected to continue across
the northwestern zones through Sun. Seas behind the front are
expected to build to 10 to 18 ft in N to NE swell on Sun, and
higher in the Gulfstream.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
08.5N16W. The ITCZ then extends from 07N17W to 05.5N32W to
10N44W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to
07N and E of 17W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 07N to 12.5N between 36W and 55W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
See Special Features section above for information on the Gale
Warnings in effect for portions of the Gulf of America and the
western Atlantic, behind a cold front.
Scattered to locally numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
are present along and within 60- nm S of the cold front, from SW
Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Recent buoy data shows seas are 7
to 12 ft to the N of 25N and much higher across the SW Gulf, as
described above. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail south of the
front across the SE basin and the eastern Bay of Campeche, where
seas are 3 to 6 ft and higher near the front.
For the forecast, the front will continue to move southeastward,
and slow down its forward progress as it reaches from the Florida
Straits to Merida, Mexico by early Sun, then drift to the
southeast of the Gulf through Tue as it weakens. Gale-force winds
off Veracruz will persist over the SW Gulf through Sun night, with
sea subsiding below 20 ft. Gales will diminish in the west-
central Gulf by early Sun, and frequent gusts to gale force
elsewhere behind the front should diminish by Sun early in the
afternoon. Strong NE winds and rough seas will persist elsewhere
north of the front into early next week. Looking ahead, strong
high pressure will build over the lower Mississippi Valley behind
the front, maintaining fresh NE to E winds mainly over the
eastern half of the Gulf into mid-week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Deep-layer moisture is interacting with an upper-level trough
across the Yucatan Channel and Peninsula to produce divergence is
inducing scattered moderate convection across the Gulf of
Honduras south of 18N. Meanwhile, favorable upper level conditions
are supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms occurring in a
180 nm wide band from NE Colombia to the Honduras-Nicaragau
border. To the east and northeast, a broad upper trough is
producing very stable conditions, and fair skies. At the surface,
moderate to fresh trades prevail across the central basin between
64W and 78W, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere gentle to
moderate easterly trades and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, as the cold front has moved across the Western
Atlantic and the Gulf of America, the pressure gradient across the
Caribbean has relaxed, supporting moderate to fresh winds
offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere through
Thu. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a
surface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean tonight.
The Gulf of America cold front will likely reach western Cuba and
the Yucatan Channel by Tue then gradually dissipate. Large seas
in northerly swell associated with the front are expected to move
through the Yucatan Channel with hazardous conditions midday Sun
into early Tue.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning for waters offshore NE Florida.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is ongoing along and E of the cold front extending from 31N75W to
the SE Florida coast near Lake Worth. Convection is generally
occurring from the cold front to the NW Bahamas and then
northeastward to near 31N70W. Light SE to S winds and seas 4 ft or
less prevail E of the front to 65W. More scattered moderate
isolated strong convection extends from 19N to 29N between 45W and
57W, in association with a deep- layer trough across that area.
Further to the east, a broad area of scattered moderate convection
is noted from 13N to 25N between 32W and 42W, in association with
another deep-layer trough.
Strong high pressure located NW of the Azores extends a broad
ridge southwestward to the central Bahamas, but drapes across a
series of surface troughs from 20N and 30W between 38W and 60W.
The pressure gradient N of these trough is yielding moderate to
fresh easterly winds with seas of 6 to 8 ft in N swell. S of the
area, southward of 25N, gentle to moderate easterly trades prevail
across the Tropical Atlantic, where seas are 4 to 6 ft between 30W
and 65W. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to
7 ft are found N of 20N and E of 30W to Africa, with gentle to
moderate winds and seas found there S of 20N.
For the forecast west of 55W, the strong cold front will continue
to move southeastward and reach from 31N72W to the Straits of
Florida by early Sun morning, and from near 31N70W to western Cuba
by early Mon morning, then stall and dissipate through mid week.
Strong to near-gale force winds and very rough seas to 18 ft will
follow the front, affecting mainly the waters west of 65W through
Tue. Associated northerly swell will linger through much of the
week.
$$
Stripling
Active Tropical Systems
- Mon, 19 Oct 2026 17:07:20 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 18 Oct 2026 05:07:49 GMT - Sun, 18 Oct 2026 05:07:20 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 180507
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Off the East Coast of the United States:
A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is expected to form
later today or tonight off the southeast coast of the United States.
This low is likely to move slowly and erratically through the middle
of next week, and some subtropical development is possible during
that time. Regardless of development, this system will cause high
winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf along portions of the
U.S. East Coast. Please consult statements and warnings from local
National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center
for more information, along with High Seas Forecasts and storm
warnings issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sat, 17 Oct 2026 14:20:41 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 171420
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1020 AM EDT SAT 17 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-139
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE TRUDY
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73
A. 18/1730Z
B. AFXXX 0421E TRUDY
C. 18/1330Z
D. 19.6N 106.0W
E. 18/1700Z TO 18/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: THE TEAL 72 FIX MISSION TASKED ON TCPOD 26-138
WILL NOT FLY.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf