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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sat, 19 Sep 2026 02:33:02 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
548
AXNT20 KNHC 190232
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Sep 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0140 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43.5W from 06N
to 21N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 12N to 19N between 38W and 44W.
A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis roughly along 82W
south of 19N near the Cayman Islands to near the border of Costa
Rica and Panama, moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 13N to 20N between
77W and 85W. Additional deep convection is present to the south
along the intersection of the wave and the eastern Pacific
monsoon trough, across the coastal waters and inland portions of
Costa Rica and Panama.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Senegal near 14N16W and continues southwestward to 11N26W then
northwestward to 14N42W. The ITCZ extends from 13N45W to 1009 mb
low pressure seen by a very recent ASCAT scatterometer pass at
13N51W to along the NE coast of Venezuela at 10N65W. A surface
trough is analyzed south of the monsoon trough from 12N18W to
07N39W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical wave
described above, isolated to widely scattered moderate to strong
convection is seen on conventional satellite imagery within 180 nm
either side of the surface trough. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is near the surface low, from 12N to 15N between 48W
and 53W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A few surface troughs are analyzed and impacting the Gulf. One
extends across Central Florida to west of Tampa Bay, and another
to the south from 25N84W to 25N95W. Isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms are near both troughs. Moderate to
locally fresh winds are north of the 25N trough and west of 85W,
along with 3-6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 1-3 ft seas
prevail elsewhere. Meanwhile, the diurnal surface trough is over
the western Yucatan Peninsula with convection present over the
peninsula.
For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region
supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
through Sun. Winds will then ease to light to gentle speeds early
next week, with seas remaining slight. Meanwhile, a broad upper-
level low currently located over northeastern Florida will move
into the NE Gulf on Sat. This feature will lead to increasing
shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and central Gulf
waters.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please refer to the tropical wave section for details on a wave in
the western Caribbean including associated convection.
The pressure gradient between broad high pressure north of the
basin and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is
allowing for fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean
from 11N to 17N between 66W and 77W, where seas are 6-9 ft.
Moderate to fresh trades are found elsewhere from 11N to 18N
between 64W and 80W, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft remain across the remainder of
the basin, except for 1-3 ft seas in the NW Caribbean.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the western Atlantic and the Colombian Low will generally
maintain fresh to strong trades along with moderate to locally
rough seas over most of the central Caribbean through early Sat
morning. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds
thereafter as the pressure gradient relaxes across the area.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast
elsewhere.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the tropical wave section for details on a wave in
the central Atlantic including associated convection, as well as
convection near the monsoon trough/ITCZ and nearby features.
The remnants of a stationary front as a frontal trough extend from
31N74W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Some isolated to widely
scattered showers are near the trough. South of the trough, upper-
level disturbances riding along a jet stream branch from across
the northwest Caribbean to the Bahamas are supporting scattered
moderate convection from 18N to 28N between 61W and 77W. Another
surface trough is in the central Atlantic, from 31N43W to 23N57W
as seen by recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 120 nm either side of the trough. A
relatively weak pressure gradient is the result of the above
features across the basin resulting in winds of moderate or
weaker. Moderate to fresh localized winds are over the SE Bahamas
and Turks and Caicos with similar winds near the NE coast of South
America, and north of 17N between Africa and 23W where the
normally locally tight pressure gradient exists. Seas of 3-4 ft in
mainly long period SE swell dominates the waters west of 55W
across the offshore waters zones. Similar seas are found north of
23N between 30W and 55W in mainly NE swell. Seas are 5-7 ft from
13N to 20N between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands, with similar
heights north of 27N between Africa and 23W, and 3-5 ft in mixed
NE and SE swells across the remainder of the waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough extending from
near 31N74W to Cape Canaveral, Florida will dissipate overnight.
High pressure will become the dominant feature across the basin
during the weekend into early next week, promoting light to gentle
winds with slight to moderate seas, with the exception of
moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas offshore
Hispaniola. Meanwhile, abundant tropical moisture, combined with
an upper- level low now located over NE Florida, will continue to
support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, across
the central and southern Bahamas, and between the central Bahamas
and Bermuda, through at least Sun.
$$
Lewitsky
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sat, 19 Sep 2026 02:33:02 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
548
AXNT20 KNHC 190232
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Sep 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0140 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43.5W from 06N
to 21N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 12N to 19N between 38W and 44W.
A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis roughly along 82W
south of 19N near the Cayman Islands to near the border of Costa
Rica and Panama, moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 13N to 20N between
77W and 85W. Additional deep convection is present to the south
along the intersection of the wave and the eastern Pacific
monsoon trough, across the coastal waters and inland portions of
Costa Rica and Panama.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Senegal near 14N16W and continues southwestward to 11N26W then
northwestward to 14N42W. The ITCZ extends from 13N45W to 1009 mb
low pressure seen by a very recent ASCAT scatterometer pass at
13N51W to along the NE coast of Venezuela at 10N65W. A surface
trough is analyzed south of the monsoon trough from 12N18W to
07N39W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical wave
described above, isolated to widely scattered moderate to strong
convection is seen on conventional satellite imagery within 180 nm
either side of the surface trough. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is near the surface low, from 12N to 15N between 48W
and 53W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A few surface troughs are analyzed and impacting the Gulf. One
extends across Central Florida to west of Tampa Bay, and another
to the south from 25N84W to 25N95W. Isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms are near both troughs. Moderate to
locally fresh winds are north of the 25N trough and west of 85W,
along with 3-6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 1-3 ft seas
prevail elsewhere. Meanwhile, the diurnal surface trough is over
the western Yucatan Peninsula with convection present over the
peninsula.
For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region
supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
through Sun. Winds will then ease to light to gentle speeds early
next week, with seas remaining slight. Meanwhile, a broad upper-
level low currently located over northeastern Florida will move
into the NE Gulf on Sat. This feature will lead to increasing
shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and central Gulf
waters.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please refer to the tropical wave section for details on a wave in
the western Caribbean including associated convection.
The pressure gradient between broad high pressure north of the
basin and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is
allowing for fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean
from 11N to 17N between 66W and 77W, where seas are 6-9 ft.
Moderate to fresh trades are found elsewhere from 11N to 18N
between 64W and 80W, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft remain across the remainder of
the basin, except for 1-3 ft seas in the NW Caribbean.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the western Atlantic and the Colombian Low will generally
maintain fresh to strong trades along with moderate to locally
rough seas over most of the central Caribbean through early Sat
morning. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds
thereafter as the pressure gradient relaxes across the area.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast
elsewhere.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the tropical wave section for details on a wave in
the central Atlantic including associated convection, as well as
convection near the monsoon trough/ITCZ and nearby features.
The remnants of a stationary front as a frontal trough extend from
31N74W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Some isolated to widely
scattered showers are near the trough. South of the trough, upper-
level disturbances riding along a jet stream branch from across
the northwest Caribbean to the Bahamas are supporting scattered
moderate convection from 18N to 28N between 61W and 77W. Another
surface trough is in the central Atlantic, from 31N43W to 23N57W
as seen by recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 120 nm either side of the trough. A
relatively weak pressure gradient is the result of the above
features across the basin resulting in winds of moderate or
weaker. Moderate to fresh localized winds are over the SE Bahamas
and Turks and Caicos with similar winds near the NE coast of South
America, and north of 17N between Africa and 23W where the
normally locally tight pressure gradient exists. Seas of 3-4 ft in
mainly long period SE swell dominates the waters west of 55W
across the offshore waters zones. Similar seas are found north of
23N between 30W and 55W in mainly NE swell. Seas are 5-7 ft from
13N to 20N between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands, with similar
heights north of 27N between Africa and 23W, and 3-5 ft in mixed
NE and SE swells across the remainder of the waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough extending from
near 31N74W to Cape Canaveral, Florida will dissipate overnight.
High pressure will become the dominant feature across the basin
during the weekend into early next week, promoting light to gentle
winds with slight to moderate seas, with the exception of
moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas offshore
Hispaniola. Meanwhile, abundant tropical moisture, combined with
an upper- level low now located over NE Florida, will continue to
support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, across
the central and southern Bahamas, and between the central Bahamas
and Bermuda, through at least Sun.
$$
Lewitsky
Active Tropical Systems
- Sun, 20 Sep 2026 11:43:58 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 19 Sep 2026 04:00:37 GMT - Fri, 18 Sep 2026 23:43:58 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
406
ABNT20 KNHC 182343
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Eastern Subtropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the low pressure system
located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores have become
more concentrated during the past few hours, and a tropical
depression could form later tonight or on Saturday. The system is
expected to move slowly over the next couple of days remaining
southwest of the Azores, followed by a turn to the southwest by
early next week. Environmental conditions are forecast to become
less favorable for development beginning Sunday night or on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Fri, 18 Sep 2026 14:42:20 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 181442
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT FRI 18 SEPTEMBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-110
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE MISSION INTO SUSPECT AREA
EP99 SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO NEAR 15.8N 106.8W FOR
20/1800Z.
$$
KAL
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf