2026 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

000
WTNT44 KNHC 271449
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042026
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 27 2026
 
Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure (Invest
AL96) has developed a well-defined center this morning along with
organized deep convection.  There is a bit of northwesterly shear, 
causing most of the thunderstorm activity to be located on the 
southern side of the circulation largely away from the center. 
Scatterometer data shows that the maximum winds are near 35 kt in
the northeastern quadrant, along with a Dvorak T2.5/35 kt
classification from TAFB, so advisories are initiated on Tropical
Storm Dolly.  
 
The initial motion estimate is 275/21 kt.  Dolly should continue
moving quickly westward for the next couple of days under a strong
ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic.  Model guidance
is tightly packed on a track towards the Leeward Islands, and 
the NHC forecast is on the faster and southward side of the 
guidance envelope.  This forecast is consistent with the NOAA HCCA 
model and the well-known bias for models to be too slow and 
poleward in the tropical Atlantic.

The environment around Dolly should become unfavorable for 
strengthening by tomorrow with increasing southwesterly shear due 
to a central Atlantic upper-level trough, fast forward motion and 
dry air aloft.  Until then, some slight intensification is 
possible, consistent with the model consensus.  All of our guidance 
is showing Dolly opening up into a strong tropical wave before it 
reaches the Leeward Islands, which is our expectation as well, and 
post-tropical positions are provided given the risk of gusty winds 
and heavy rainfall.  

The timing of the use of the name Dolly for this storm is purely 
coincidental.  Tropical storm and hurricane names for the North 
Atlantic Basin originate from six pre-determined rotating lists 
established by the World Meteorological Organization Region IV 
Hurricane Committee.  The name Dolly replaced Diana after the 
1990 hurricane season and was first used in 1996.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Dolly is forecast to no longer be a tropical cyclone 
when it passes near the Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall could begin 
to affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday and the 
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday.  This 
heavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of 
higher terrain.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 13.6N  38.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 13.7N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 14.4N  46.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 15.1N  51.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 15.9N  55.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  30/0000Z 16.7N  59.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  30/1200Z 17.7N  63.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

112 
FONT14 KNHC 271447
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042026               
1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT JOHN     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
SABA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

103 
WTNT34 KNHC 271447
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolly Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042026
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 27 2026
 
...TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 38.7W
ABOUT 1555 MI...2505 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.  

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of 
Dolly.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 38.7 West. Dolly is
moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days.  On the forecast 
track, this system should be nearing the Leeward Islands this 
weekend.
 
Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are 
near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.  Little change in strength 
is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dolly is forecast to 
degenerate into a tropical wave before it reaches the Leeward 
Islands.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Dolly can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. 

RAINFALL:  Heavy rain from this system could begin to affect the 
Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday, the Virgin Islands, 
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and  Monday.  This heavy rain may 
produce flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. 
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake