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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Wed, 04 Nov 2026 10:21:41 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 041021
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Nov 4 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A sharp trough is analyzed this
evening from 26N65W to 22N68W. This development is associated
with an upper trough reaching from 32N70W through central Florida.
Recent buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data showed
fresh to strong NE to E winds between the trough and 1027 mb high
pressure over the western Atlantic near 37N65W. This pattern is
supporting a weak shear line along 25N. Concurrent altimeter data
showed 8-11 ft seas between the Bahamas and Bermuda. As the low
develops today, the pressure gradient is expected to yield near-
gale to gale-force NE to E winds beginning this afternoon,
roughly over the waters from 29N to 31N between 63W and 69W. Seas
are expected to build to 10-14 ft with these winds through Thu as
the low pressure drifts east-northeastward. The low pressure
could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week as
it continues to shift slowly E-NE across the sub-tropical
Atlantic. Gale-force winds may continue across northern portions
of this expected broad low pressure into late Sat.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html
Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing
over the northwestern Caribbean will interact with enhanced low-
level moisture associated with broad cyclonic flow over the
western Caribbean during the next several days. This will favor
heavy precipitation developing across Central America, northern
South America, as well as Jamaica through Friday. The heaviest
precipitation is expected across southern and western portions of
Costa Rica, Panama, and Nicaragua, with the bulk of precipitation
occurring today through Thursday. Heavy rainfall will lead to
possible life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please
refer to your local weather agency and the International Desk at
the Weather Prediction Center for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from coast of Sierra
Leone near 12N16W, and continues southwestward to 07N27W. The
ITCZ and continues from that point to 08N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring along the boundaries and E of 53W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A broad trough extends from the northeast Gulf to the central
Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas to 4 ft are active
across the Florida Big Bend area between the trough and 1027 mb
high pressure off Virginia. Light to gentle breezes and 1-3 ft
are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, a cold front extends across the NW Gulf and will
continue moving across the area today, then weaken and dissipate
by tonight. Moderate northwest to north winds prevail west of the
front. The next cold front is expected to move across the Gulf
waters this weekend. Fresh to strong north winds will develop
west of the front and west of 93W on Sun, with moderate north to
northeast winds elsewhere behind the front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Deep-layer troughing across the northwestern Caribbean supports
scattered moderate to strong convection from 10N to 18N between
70W and 82W. A broad 1009 mb low pressure area is centered over
the southwest Caribbean near 13N81W. This pattern is supporting
gentle to moderate E winds over the eastern Caribbean with 3-5 ft
seas, and light breezes over the western Caribbean with 1-3 ft
seas.
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the area is
supporting moderate trade winds, along with moderate seas, over
the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and
slight to moderate seas are over the western Caribbean. The
pressure gradient will further loosen across the area today. This
will diminish the moderate trades across the central and eastern
Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the western Atlantic.
An upper trough reaches from 32N70W through central Florida.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near 31N67W,
southwest of Bermuda, associated with this trough. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are also active over the eastern Straits
of Florida into the northern Bahamas. Scatterometer data and buoy
observations confirm fresh to strong winds north of a shear line
along 25N. Altimeter data indicates rough seas with these winds.
Farther east, a cold front extends from a 1015 mb low near 30N35W
to 26N40W, then becomes stationary to 26N59W. Strong high
pressure is centered north of Bermuda. Fresh winds and 6-8 ft
combined seas are evident north of this frontal boundary. Gentle
to moderate winds and moderate seas persist elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, low pressure is expected to
strengthens today, roughly from 27N to 28N, and track slowly east-
northeastward during the rest of the week and the weekend. A
broad zone of strong to gale-force winds, and rough to very rough
seas, peaking near 14 ft, will develop north of the low pressure
and expand eastward from this afternoon through Sun, impacting the
waters mainly north of about 27N. The gale-force winds will
likely be north of 29N from this afternoon through Sat night. A
weakening cold front will move across the waters between Florida
and 75W Fri and Fri night, then dissipate Sat and Sat night.
$$
ERA
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Wed, 04 Nov 2026 10:21:41 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 041021
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Nov 4 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A sharp trough is analyzed this
evening from 26N65W to 22N68W. This development is associated
with an upper trough reaching from 32N70W through central Florida.
Recent buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data showed
fresh to strong NE to E winds between the trough and 1027 mb high
pressure over the western Atlantic near 37N65W. This pattern is
supporting a weak shear line along 25N. Concurrent altimeter data
showed 8-11 ft seas between the Bahamas and Bermuda. As the low
develops today, the pressure gradient is expected to yield near-
gale to gale-force NE to E winds beginning this afternoon,
roughly over the waters from 29N to 31N between 63W and 69W. Seas
are expected to build to 10-14 ft with these winds through Thu as
the low pressure drifts east-northeastward. The low pressure
could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week as
it continues to shift slowly E-NE across the sub-tropical
Atlantic. Gale-force winds may continue across northern portions
of this expected broad low pressure into late Sat.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html
Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing
over the northwestern Caribbean will interact with enhanced low-
level moisture associated with broad cyclonic flow over the
western Caribbean during the next several days. This will favor
heavy precipitation developing across Central America, northern
South America, as well as Jamaica through Friday. The heaviest
precipitation is expected across southern and western portions of
Costa Rica, Panama, and Nicaragua, with the bulk of precipitation
occurring today through Thursday. Heavy rainfall will lead to
possible life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please
refer to your local weather agency and the International Desk at
the Weather Prediction Center for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from coast of Sierra
Leone near 12N16W, and continues southwestward to 07N27W. The
ITCZ and continues from that point to 08N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring along the boundaries and E of 53W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A broad trough extends from the northeast Gulf to the central
Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas to 4 ft are active
across the Florida Big Bend area between the trough and 1027 mb
high pressure off Virginia. Light to gentle breezes and 1-3 ft
are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, a cold front extends across the NW Gulf and will
continue moving across the area today, then weaken and dissipate
by tonight. Moderate northwest to north winds prevail west of the
front. The next cold front is expected to move across the Gulf
waters this weekend. Fresh to strong north winds will develop
west of the front and west of 93W on Sun, with moderate north to
northeast winds elsewhere behind the front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Deep-layer troughing across the northwestern Caribbean supports
scattered moderate to strong convection from 10N to 18N between
70W and 82W. A broad 1009 mb low pressure area is centered over
the southwest Caribbean near 13N81W. This pattern is supporting
gentle to moderate E winds over the eastern Caribbean with 3-5 ft
seas, and light breezes over the western Caribbean with 1-3 ft
seas.
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the area is
supporting moderate trade winds, along with moderate seas, over
the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and
slight to moderate seas are over the western Caribbean. The
pressure gradient will further loosen across the area today. This
will diminish the moderate trades across the central and eastern
Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the western Atlantic.
An upper trough reaches from 32N70W through central Florida.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near 31N67W,
southwest of Bermuda, associated with this trough. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are also active over the eastern Straits
of Florida into the northern Bahamas. Scatterometer data and buoy
observations confirm fresh to strong winds north of a shear line
along 25N. Altimeter data indicates rough seas with these winds.
Farther east, a cold front extends from a 1015 mb low near 30N35W
to 26N40W, then becomes stationary to 26N59W. Strong high
pressure is centered north of Bermuda. Fresh winds and 6-8 ft
combined seas are evident north of this frontal boundary. Gentle
to moderate winds and moderate seas persist elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, low pressure is expected to
strengthens today, roughly from 27N to 28N, and track slowly east-
northeastward during the rest of the week and the weekend. A
broad zone of strong to gale-force winds, and rough to very rough
seas, peaking near 14 ft, will develop north of the low pressure
and expand eastward from this afternoon through Sun, impacting the
waters mainly north of about 27N. The gale-force winds will
likely be north of 29N from this afternoon through Sat night. A
weakening cold front will move across the waters between Florida
and 75W Fri and Fri night, then dissipate Sat and Sat night.
$$
ERA
Active Tropical Systems
- Thu, 05 Nov 2026 23:49:41 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 04 Nov 2026 12:14:17 GMT - Wed, 04 Nov 2026 11:49:41 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 041149
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Western and Central Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure is forming along a remnant frontal
boundary a few hundred miles south of Bermuda. Environmental
conditions could support this system gradually acquiring subtropical
characteristics through this weekend while it moves slowly eastward
over the western and central subtropical Atlantic. By early next
week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable
for further development. For more information on this system,
including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Papin/Pasch
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Tue, 03 Nov 2026 16:15:32 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
547
NOUS42 KNHC 031615
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EST TUE 03 NOVEMBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z NOVEMBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-156
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
NOTE: THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC WINTER SEASON REQUIREMENTS ARE
NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf