2026 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

000
WTNT44 KNHC 272040
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042026
500 PM AST Thu Aug 27 2026

Dolly has been struggling to develop deep thunderstorm activity 
near the center during the day, though a new convective burst has 
recently gone up in the southern semicircle.  Overall the 
environment appears rather dry, with most of the northern portion 
of the circulation exposed.  Satellite Dvorak estimates suggest 
little change in wind speed, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt 
on this advisory.  
 
The initial motion estimate continues at 275/21 kt.  Dolly 
is forecast to move quickly westward for the next couple of days 
under a strong ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic.  
There aren't many guidance changes to report as the models are 
tightly clustered on a path towards the Leeward Islands.  No 
significant changes were made to the previous NHC forecast, 
remaining on the faster and southward side of the guidance 
envelope.  
 
The environment around Dolly will likely become unfavorable for
strengthening on Friday with increasing southwesterly shear due
to a central Atlantic upper-level trough, fast forward motion and
dry air aloft.  Until then, some modest intensification is
possible, consistent with the model consensus.  Global and regional 
models all show Dolly degenerating into a strong tropical wave on 
Friday or Saturday before it reaches the Leeward Islands, and our 
forecast shows this decay by the weekend.  The timing of the 
transition was moved up slightly from the last advisory, otherwise 
no other changes were made to the forecast.  Post-tropical 
positions are provided at 48-60h given the risk of gusty winds and 
heavy rainfall.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rains from Dolly or its remnants could affect the Leeward 
Islands late Saturday into Sunday with possible impacts in the 
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday.  This 
heavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of 
higher terrain of the Leeward Islands.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 13.7N  40.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 14.1N  43.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 14.7N  48.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 15.6N  53.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 16.5N  57.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  30/0600Z 17.3N  61.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

120 
FONT14 KNHC 272039
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042026               
2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

019 
WTNT34 KNHC 272039
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolly Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042026
500 PM AST Thu Aug 27 2026
 
...DOLLY MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...
...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 40.7W
ABOUT 1425 MI...2290 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Dolly.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 40.7 West. Dolly is
moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days.  On the forecast
track, this system should be nearing the Leeward Islands this
weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Little change in strength is likely during the next 48 
hours, and Dolly is forecast to degenerate into a tropical wave 
before it reaches the Leeward Islands.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Dolly can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL:  Heavy rain from Dolly could affect the Leeward Islands 
late Saturday into Sunday, with rainfall moving into the Virgin 
Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday.  This heavy 
rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of higher 
terrain of the Leeward Islands.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake