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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Mon, 14 Sep 2026 04:30:22 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 140430
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is found from 07N to 16N between 43W and 49.5W.
Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of
17N, moving westward at near 15 kt. A few showers are found ahead
of this wave between 10N and 13N.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W and continues to 10.5N19W to 08N31W to 11N44W.
The ITCZ extends from 9.5N51W to near 12N67W. Scattered to locally
numerous moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 06N
to 12N between 11W and 22W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 22W and 34W, and from
05N to 11.5N between 35W and 45W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A middle to upper-level low is centered over the western gulf and
continue to promote unstable conditions and areas of active
convection across the basin. However, as has been the case in
recent nights, late afternoon-early evening convection has
diminished significantly in recent hours. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring in a band over the central
Gulf from 24.tN to 27N between 95W and the W coast of Florida.
Scattered strong evening convection occurring over southern Mexico
has drifted across the near shore coastal waters in the Veracruz
area, and across much of the southern Bay of Campeche. At the
surface, a 1017 mb high is analyzed near 28.5N86W, while a weak
surface trough extends from central Florida southwestward into
the coastal waters offshore of Marco Island. A weak pressure
pattern prevails over the basin with light to gentle anticyclonic
flow over most of the basin, with 1-3 ft seas, and fresh NE flow
along the NW and W coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, where seas are
3 to 5 ft.
For the forecast, weak ridging centered over the NE Gulf will
persist into Tue, supporting relatively tranquil conditions
across much of the basin. The exception will be the Bay of
Campeche, where a diurnal trough will move westward offshore the
Yucatan Peninsula each evening through late this week, bringing
nightly pulses of fresh NE winds. Starting late Tue, stronger high
pressure building southward from the eastern United States will
lead to increasing NE to E winds over the basin, with speeds
reaching fresh to strong and rough seas over the northern Gulf Wed
through Thu night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Middle to upper-level low pressure is centered over Haiti, and
promoting unstable conditions over south and east portions of the
Caribbean. Multi-layered clouds with scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms prevail over most of the eastern basin E of 71W,
across the Lesser Antilles to 58W. Scattered strong convection is
occurring across the SW Caribbean south of 13.5N from western
Panama to central Nicaragua. Weak high pressure across the NE Gulf
of America and the western Atlantic is combining with a 1006 mb
Colombian Low to sustain strong to near gale-force NE to E winds
over much of the central Caribbean S of 16N. Rough seas of 7 to 11
ft are occurring in these waters. Fresh to strong NE to E winds
and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the Windward Passage and Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate
seas are evident elsewhere south of 18N, including the eastern
Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail across the remainder of the NW basin.
For the forecast, the western Atlantic subtropical ridge centered
NE of the Bahamas and extending into the NE Gulf of America will
combine with lower pressure in Colombia to sustain fresh to strong
with locally near gale-force easterly trade winds, and moderate to
rough seas across much of the central Caribbean through the
workweek. Strong winds are expected tonight in the Gulf of
Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly breezes are
expected over the next several days in the eastern Caribbean.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
are expected.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Of note, Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the ongoing
easterly gap wind event through the Straits of Gibraltar. This
warning will remain in effect through 14/06Z.
A low level trough persists across the central Atlantic, with
surface trough analyzed from 22N46W to 29N47W. A small and tight
deep layered upper low is centered just W of this trough near
27.5N50W, and is supporting scattered moderate isolated strong
convection from 24N to 30N between 43W and 49W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is also occurring near a pair of low level low
centers along 30N between 55W and 68W. Otherwise, weak ridging
continues from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas, yielding light to
gentle anticyclonic winds N of 24N and W of 65W, where seas are 3
ft or less, while moderate to fresh easterly trades are occurring
through the SE Bahamas and near the N coast of Hispaniola, where
seas are 3 to 5 ft. A relatively weak pressure gradient dominates
the tropical Atlantic with moderate or weaker winds across the
waters between 30W and 65W, except moderate to fresh near the two
tropical waves, and the surface trough along 46W-47W. Across the
NE Atlantic waters moderate NE winds prevail from the Canary
Islands to 30W and N of 20N, with seas of 5 to 6 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, a broad subtropical ridge dominates
much of the basin W of 50W, and will force fresh to locally
strong easterly winds off Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage
tonight and Mon night, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. On
Tue, strong high pressure building southward through the eastern
United States will bring a cold front into the NW waters,
producing fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas building
6 to 9ft N of the Bahamas and W of 70W through Wed night. During
the middle to later portion of the week, a trough of low pressure
is forecast to move west- northwestward into the NE portion of the
waters, bringing active thunderstorms.
$$
Stripling
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Mon, 14 Sep 2026 04:30:22 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 140430
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is found from 07N to 16N between 43W and 49.5W.
Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of
17N, moving westward at near 15 kt. A few showers are found ahead
of this wave between 10N and 13N.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W and continues to 10.5N19W to 08N31W to 11N44W.
The ITCZ extends from 9.5N51W to near 12N67W. Scattered to locally
numerous moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 06N
to 12N between 11W and 22W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 22W and 34W, and from
05N to 11.5N between 35W and 45W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A middle to upper-level low is centered over the western gulf and
continue to promote unstable conditions and areas of active
convection across the basin. However, as has been the case in
recent nights, late afternoon-early evening convection has
diminished significantly in recent hours. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring in a band over the central
Gulf from 24.tN to 27N between 95W and the W coast of Florida.
Scattered strong evening convection occurring over southern Mexico
has drifted across the near shore coastal waters in the Veracruz
area, and across much of the southern Bay of Campeche. At the
surface, a 1017 mb high is analyzed near 28.5N86W, while a weak
surface trough extends from central Florida southwestward into
the coastal waters offshore of Marco Island. A weak pressure
pattern prevails over the basin with light to gentle anticyclonic
flow over most of the basin, with 1-3 ft seas, and fresh NE flow
along the NW and W coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, where seas are
3 to 5 ft.
For the forecast, weak ridging centered over the NE Gulf will
persist into Tue, supporting relatively tranquil conditions
across much of the basin. The exception will be the Bay of
Campeche, where a diurnal trough will move westward offshore the
Yucatan Peninsula each evening through late this week, bringing
nightly pulses of fresh NE winds. Starting late Tue, stronger high
pressure building southward from the eastern United States will
lead to increasing NE to E winds over the basin, with speeds
reaching fresh to strong and rough seas over the northern Gulf Wed
through Thu night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Middle to upper-level low pressure is centered over Haiti, and
promoting unstable conditions over south and east portions of the
Caribbean. Multi-layered clouds with scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms prevail over most of the eastern basin E of 71W,
across the Lesser Antilles to 58W. Scattered strong convection is
occurring across the SW Caribbean south of 13.5N from western
Panama to central Nicaragua. Weak high pressure across the NE Gulf
of America and the western Atlantic is combining with a 1006 mb
Colombian Low to sustain strong to near gale-force NE to E winds
over much of the central Caribbean S of 16N. Rough seas of 7 to 11
ft are occurring in these waters. Fresh to strong NE to E winds
and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the Windward Passage and Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate
seas are evident elsewhere south of 18N, including the eastern
Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail across the remainder of the NW basin.
For the forecast, the western Atlantic subtropical ridge centered
NE of the Bahamas and extending into the NE Gulf of America will
combine with lower pressure in Colombia to sustain fresh to strong
with locally near gale-force easterly trade winds, and moderate to
rough seas across much of the central Caribbean through the
workweek. Strong winds are expected tonight in the Gulf of
Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly breezes are
expected over the next several days in the eastern Caribbean.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
are expected.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Of note, Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the ongoing
easterly gap wind event through the Straits of Gibraltar. This
warning will remain in effect through 14/06Z.
A low level trough persists across the central Atlantic, with
surface trough analyzed from 22N46W to 29N47W. A small and tight
deep layered upper low is centered just W of this trough near
27.5N50W, and is supporting scattered moderate isolated strong
convection from 24N to 30N between 43W and 49W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is also occurring near a pair of low level low
centers along 30N between 55W and 68W. Otherwise, weak ridging
continues from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas, yielding light to
gentle anticyclonic winds N of 24N and W of 65W, where seas are 3
ft or less, while moderate to fresh easterly trades are occurring
through the SE Bahamas and near the N coast of Hispaniola, where
seas are 3 to 5 ft. A relatively weak pressure gradient dominates
the tropical Atlantic with moderate or weaker winds across the
waters between 30W and 65W, except moderate to fresh near the two
tropical waves, and the surface trough along 46W-47W. Across the
NE Atlantic waters moderate NE winds prevail from the Canary
Islands to 30W and N of 20N, with seas of 5 to 6 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, a broad subtropical ridge dominates
much of the basin W of 50W, and will force fresh to locally
strong easterly winds off Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage
tonight and Mon night, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. On
Tue, strong high pressure building southward through the eastern
United States will bring a cold front into the NW waters,
producing fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas building
6 to 9ft N of the Bahamas and W of 70W through Wed night. During
the middle to later portion of the week, a trough of low pressure
is forecast to move west- northwestward into the NE portion of the
waters, bringing active thunderstorms.
$$
Stripling
Active Tropical Systems
- Tue, 15 Sep 2026 17:19:26 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 14 Sep 2026 05:40:25 GMT - Mon, 14 Sep 2026 05:19:26 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 140519
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located more than 1000 miles east-southeast
of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions over the system are
currently unfavorable for development due to strong upper-level
winds. However, as the system moves west-northwestward across the
central part of the Subtropical Atlantic, it is forecast to enter a
more conducive environment for gradual development by the middle to
latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sun, 13 Sep 2026 13:50:45 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 131350
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0950 AM EDT SUN 13 SEPTEMBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-105
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf