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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Mon, 19 Oct 2026 17:20:22 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 191720
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Oct 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Significant N Swell: A 1007 mb low near 33N72W extends a
cold front SE of the low and then southwestward through the
central Bahamas to northern Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring along and roughly 50 nm E and SE of the front. Winds
behind the front have fallen below gale-force, but strong to
near gale-force NW winds persist. Very rough seas of 12-20 ft in N
to NE swell are occurring across the waters N of 26N and W of
70W. These very rough seas will gradually expand southward to 25N
and W of 70W through this afternoon and evening. Very rough seas
will then steadily diminish through Tuesday afternoon and evening,
but rough seas of 8-12 ft will persist through midweek.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends across western Africa to the coast of
Guiea-Bissau near 12N16W and extends to near 10N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 10N20W to 08N35W to 11N44W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 05N to 10N and E of 25W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends from northern Cuba across the southern
Gulf and into the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring along and within 50 nm of the front. Much of the
basin N of the front is seeing fresh to strong E to NE winds and
6-8 ft seas prevail, with winds near gale force and seas of 8-12
ft occurring in the far SW Gulf offshore Veracruz. Moderate to
fresh E winds and moderate seas are occurring S of the front
closer to the Yucatan Channel.
For the forecast, a stationary front extends across the Straits
of Florida to 23N90W into the central Bay of Campeche. Fresh to
strong NW to N winds and rough seas are over the western Gulf S of
about 25N, except for near gale-force NW to N winds over the SW
Gulf offshore Veracruz. Fresh to strong NE winds will continue
over the eastern Gulf through Tue. The near gale-force NW to N
winds over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz will diminish to mostly
strong speeds this afternoon. The front will slow down over the
Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula today, then shift
southeast of the Gulf through Tue as it weakens.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level inverted trough over the western Caribbean and the
East Pacific monsoon trough extending across the far SW Caribbean
are supporting scattered moderate to strong convection generally S
of 16N and W of 77W. In the NW Caribbean, showers and
thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the stationary front draped
across the southern Gulf of America, as well as along a surface
trough in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
trades and 5-7 ft seas prevail in the central Caribbean, with
gentle to moderate trades and 2-5 ft seas elsewhere.
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region due
to a frontal boundary across the Bahamas and the southern Gulf of
America will maintain moderate to fresh trades in the south-
central Caribbean through Wed night and moderate, or weaker winds
elsewhere. The cold front will likely reach western Cuba and the
Yucatan Channel tonight into Tue, where it will remain through Wed
before dissipating. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate to
rough seas will likely impact the Yucatan Channel and the
northwestern Caribbean through early Wed morning. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh SE winds will develop in the eastern Caribbean
on Thu, and prevail through Fri night as surface ridging builds N
of the area.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the Special Features section above for information on
significant north swell behind a cold front in the western
Atlantic.
An upper level low near 24N51W is inducing several surface troughs
in the Atlantic from 08N to 31N between 40W and 55W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 14N to 29N between 40W and
50W, with scattered showers and thunderstorms W of this area out
to 55W. A large swath of fresh to strong winds in broad
counterclockwise flow as well as 6-10 ft seas are occurring N of
24N between 40W and 60W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, gentle to
moderate or weaker trades and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from a 1007 mb
low pressure located N of the forecast area near 33N71W
southwestward SW to along the coast of Cuba near 23N81W, where it
stalls to the eastern Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of America. NW
to N winds to near gale-force are NW of the front N of 30N between
71W and 73W along with very rough seas while fresh to strong N to
NE winds are elsewhere behind the front along with rough to very
rough seas. Winds behind the front will diminish to fresh to
strong speeds this afternoon as the gradient slackens. The front
will reach from near 31N70W to west-central Cuba by tonight, where
it will weaken before it dissipates into Wed. Seas N and NE of
the Bahamas will slowly subside through the end of the week.
$$
Adams
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Mon, 19 Oct 2026 17:20:22 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 191720
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Oct 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Significant N Swell: A 1007 mb low near 33N72W extends a
cold front SE of the low and then southwestward through the
central Bahamas to northern Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring along and roughly 50 nm E and SE of the front. Winds
behind the front have fallen below gale-force, but strong to
near gale-force NW winds persist. Very rough seas of 12-20 ft in N
to NE swell are occurring across the waters N of 26N and W of
70W. These very rough seas will gradually expand southward to 25N
and W of 70W through this afternoon and evening. Very rough seas
will then steadily diminish through Tuesday afternoon and evening,
but rough seas of 8-12 ft will persist through midweek.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends across western Africa to the coast of
Guiea-Bissau near 12N16W and extends to near 10N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 10N20W to 08N35W to 11N44W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 05N to 10N and E of 25W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends from northern Cuba across the southern
Gulf and into the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring along and within 50 nm of the front. Much of the
basin N of the front is seeing fresh to strong E to NE winds and
6-8 ft seas prevail, with winds near gale force and seas of 8-12
ft occurring in the far SW Gulf offshore Veracruz. Moderate to
fresh E winds and moderate seas are occurring S of the front
closer to the Yucatan Channel.
For the forecast, a stationary front extends across the Straits
of Florida to 23N90W into the central Bay of Campeche. Fresh to
strong NW to N winds and rough seas are over the western Gulf S of
about 25N, except for near gale-force NW to N winds over the SW
Gulf offshore Veracruz. Fresh to strong NE winds will continue
over the eastern Gulf through Tue. The near gale-force NW to N
winds over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz will diminish to mostly
strong speeds this afternoon. The front will slow down over the
Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula today, then shift
southeast of the Gulf through Tue as it weakens.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level inverted trough over the western Caribbean and the
East Pacific monsoon trough extending across the far SW Caribbean
are supporting scattered moderate to strong convection generally S
of 16N and W of 77W. In the NW Caribbean, showers and
thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the stationary front draped
across the southern Gulf of America, as well as along a surface
trough in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
trades and 5-7 ft seas prevail in the central Caribbean, with
gentle to moderate trades and 2-5 ft seas elsewhere.
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region due
to a frontal boundary across the Bahamas and the southern Gulf of
America will maintain moderate to fresh trades in the south-
central Caribbean through Wed night and moderate, or weaker winds
elsewhere. The cold front will likely reach western Cuba and the
Yucatan Channel tonight into Tue, where it will remain through Wed
before dissipating. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate to
rough seas will likely impact the Yucatan Channel and the
northwestern Caribbean through early Wed morning. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh SE winds will develop in the eastern Caribbean
on Thu, and prevail through Fri night as surface ridging builds N
of the area.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the Special Features section above for information on
significant north swell behind a cold front in the western
Atlantic.
An upper level low near 24N51W is inducing several surface troughs
in the Atlantic from 08N to 31N between 40W and 55W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 14N to 29N between 40W and
50W, with scattered showers and thunderstorms W of this area out
to 55W. A large swath of fresh to strong winds in broad
counterclockwise flow as well as 6-10 ft seas are occurring N of
24N between 40W and 60W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, gentle to
moderate or weaker trades and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from a 1007 mb
low pressure located N of the forecast area near 33N71W
southwestward SW to along the coast of Cuba near 23N81W, where it
stalls to the eastern Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of America. NW
to N winds to near gale-force are NW of the front N of 30N between
71W and 73W along with very rough seas while fresh to strong N to
NE winds are elsewhere behind the front along with rough to very
rough seas. Winds behind the front will diminish to fresh to
strong speeds this afternoon as the gradient slackens. The front
will reach from near 31N70W to west-central Cuba by tonight, where
it will weaken before it dissipates into Wed. Seas N and NE of
the Bahamas will slowly subside through the end of the week.
$$
Adams
Active Tropical Systems
- Wed, 21 Oct 2026 05:43:45 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 21:12:18 GMT - Mon, 19 Oct 2026 17:43:45 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191743
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Off the East Coast of the United States:
A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is located along a
frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeast coast of the
United States. This low is likely to move slowly
north-northeastward over the next couple of days. If the low
remains over the Gulf Stream and becomes detached from the front, it
could briefly acquire some subtropical cyclone characteristics
during the middle to latter portions of the week. The system is
expected to move northeastward away from the the eastern United
States later this week, and environmental conditions are expected to
become unfavorable for development by the weekend. Regardless of
the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and
dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast
during the next few days. Please consult statements and warnings
from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather
Prediction Center for more information, along with High Seas
Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Mon, 19 Oct 2026 15:06:35 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 191418
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1020 AM EDT MON 19 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-141
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf