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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Fri, 16 Oct 2026 17:12:39 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 161712
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter
the northwest Gulf today, and reach from southwest Florida to the
central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and
moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected
over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW
Gulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected
with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist
over the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and extends SW
to 09N19W. The ITCZ extends from 09N19W to 09N34W where it is
broken by a surface trough. The ITCZ then resumes from 06N44W to
05N54W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 11N
and E of 23W, as well as from 04N to 10N between 25W and 45W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
An upper-level trough over the south-central US and a surface
trough in the western Gulf are supporting numerous showers and
thunderstorms across much of the interior Gulf. Another surface
trough along the Mexican coast supports scattered moderate
convection offshore Veracruz. Outside of convection, a cold front
emerging off the TX coast is leading to fresh to strong N winds
occurring over the nearshore waters between Corpus Christi and
Galveston. Seas of 2-5 ft currently prevail across the Gulf.
For the forecast, a cold front moving through coastal Texas will
enter the far northwest Gulf later this morning, reach from
southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat, then
stall and dissipate from the Florida Straits to the Bay of
Campeche through the early part of next week. Gale force winds and
rough to very rough seas will follow the front over the west-
central Gulf tonight, and the southwest Gulf by Sat morning, and
persist through Sun. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough
seas will follow the front elsewhere. Looking ahead, strong high
pressure will build over the lower Mississippi Valley in the wake
of the front, promoting fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over
the eastern half of the Gulf through Tue.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Upper-level diffluence over the NW Caribbean is supporting
numerous moderate to strong convection W of 80W. Otherwise, the
seasonal pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh trades
through the basin, with strong easterly winds offshore Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas prevail across much of
the Caribbean, with rough seas offshore Colombia.
For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the
Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela today, then mainly moderate
to fresh winds will prevail through the upcoming weekend. Rough
seas are expected offshore Colombia with the strongest winds.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast
elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a
surface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean today.
Gusty winds and locally rough seas will be associated with this
convective activity.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 31N47W to 29N50W, and then is
stationary to 25N70W. Moderate to fresh SW winds, 7-9 ft combined
seas in NW swell, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are
active along the front east of 51W. To the south, a surface trough
is analyzed along 53W from 12N to 19N, with an upper level low
nearby supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
along 50W from 14N to 19N. To the northeast, a surface trough is
analyzed from 27N35W to 20N39W with a 1008 mb low along the trough
near 22N37W. These features are also driving fresh to strong SE
winds E of the trough to about 30W and N of 20N. Diffluence aloft
and east of this trough supports numerous showers and
thunderstorms from 17N to 27N between 25W and 35W. Elsewhere
across the Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and seas are evident
across the basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure off the Carolinas
will shift eastward today, ahead of a strong cold front that will
move off the coast of northeast Florida by early Sat morning. The
front will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida by early
Sun morning, then stall and dissipate through early next week.
Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will
follow the front.
$$
Adams
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Fri, 16 Oct 2026 17:12:39 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 161712
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter
the northwest Gulf today, and reach from southwest Florida to the
central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and
moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected
over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW
Gulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected
with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist
over the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and extends SW
to 09N19W. The ITCZ extends from 09N19W to 09N34W where it is
broken by a surface trough. The ITCZ then resumes from 06N44W to
05N54W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 11N
and E of 23W, as well as from 04N to 10N between 25W and 45W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
An upper-level trough over the south-central US and a surface
trough in the western Gulf are supporting numerous showers and
thunderstorms across much of the interior Gulf. Another surface
trough along the Mexican coast supports scattered moderate
convection offshore Veracruz. Outside of convection, a cold front
emerging off the TX coast is leading to fresh to strong N winds
occurring over the nearshore waters between Corpus Christi and
Galveston. Seas of 2-5 ft currently prevail across the Gulf.
For the forecast, a cold front moving through coastal Texas will
enter the far northwest Gulf later this morning, reach from
southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat, then
stall and dissipate from the Florida Straits to the Bay of
Campeche through the early part of next week. Gale force winds and
rough to very rough seas will follow the front over the west-
central Gulf tonight, and the southwest Gulf by Sat morning, and
persist through Sun. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough
seas will follow the front elsewhere. Looking ahead, strong high
pressure will build over the lower Mississippi Valley in the wake
of the front, promoting fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over
the eastern half of the Gulf through Tue.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Upper-level diffluence over the NW Caribbean is supporting
numerous moderate to strong convection W of 80W. Otherwise, the
seasonal pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh trades
through the basin, with strong easterly winds offshore Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas prevail across much of
the Caribbean, with rough seas offshore Colombia.
For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the
Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela today, then mainly moderate
to fresh winds will prevail through the upcoming weekend. Rough
seas are expected offshore Colombia with the strongest winds.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast
elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a
surface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean today.
Gusty winds and locally rough seas will be associated with this
convective activity.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 31N47W to 29N50W, and then is
stationary to 25N70W. Moderate to fresh SW winds, 7-9 ft combined
seas in NW swell, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are
active along the front east of 51W. To the south, a surface trough
is analyzed along 53W from 12N to 19N, with an upper level low
nearby supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
along 50W from 14N to 19N. To the northeast, a surface trough is
analyzed from 27N35W to 20N39W with a 1008 mb low along the trough
near 22N37W. These features are also driving fresh to strong SE
winds E of the trough to about 30W and N of 20N. Diffluence aloft
and east of this trough supports numerous showers and
thunderstorms from 17N to 27N between 25W and 35W. Elsewhere
across the Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and seas are evident
across the basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure off the Carolinas
will shift eastward today, ahead of a strong cold front that will
move off the coast of northeast Florida by early Sat morning. The
front will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida by early
Sun morning, then stall and dissipate through early next week.
Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will
follow the front.
$$
Adams
Active Tropical Systems
- Sat, 17 Oct 2026 23:36:22 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 16 Oct 2026 17:22:54 GMT - Fri, 16 Oct 2026 11:36:22 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 161136
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Fri, 16 Oct 2026 14:50:54 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 161450
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1050 AM EDT FRI 16 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-138
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE TRUDY
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 17/1730Z A. 18/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0321E TRUDY B. AFXXX 0421E TRUDY
C. 17/1300Z C. 17/2300Z
D. 17.3N 104.3W D. 18.9N 105.3W
E. 17/1700Z TO 17/2030Z E. 18/0300Z TO 18/0630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX G. FIX
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: ANOTHER FIX MISSION INTO TRUDY FOR
18/1730Z.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf