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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Tue, 06 Oct 2026 16:41:19 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 061641
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Southwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
southwestern Gulf of America near 22N96W. Continued development
of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is
anticipated to form over the next day or so while it drifts
eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds and areas
of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico in a couple of days. The disturbance is expected to turn to
the north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end
of the week. Regardless of development, fresh to near gale-force
winds and rough to very rough seas are forecast over portions of
Gulf Wed through Sat night. Numerous moderate to strong convection
extends from 19N to 26N between 93W and 97W. Chances of tropical
cyclone formation through the next 48 hours are high.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with an axis near 64.5W,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 60W and 65W.
The wave is also enhancing fresh to strong E to SE winds across
the central Lesser Antilles and adjacent waters, as noted on
recent scatterometer satellite data.
A tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa is near
18W, extending from 06N to 16N. Scattered moderate convection is
noted near the northern end of the wave axis.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and extends to
14.5N27W to 07.5N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N40W to 06N46W to
10N58W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 17N
between 23W and 40W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please read the Special Features section above for more
information on Invest AL92.
A 1008 low is located over the northeastern Gulf near 29.5N86.5W,
and a stationary front extends toward the southeast toward the
Big Bend of Florida, and fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and
2 to 4 ft seas are occurring north of these features. The
stationary front also extends toward the west and southwest,
paralleling the northern and western Gulf Coast. A surface trough
then continues from the tail of the front along the E Mexico
offshores to Invest AL92 low to the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to
locally strong NE to NW winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are noted north
and west of these features, just offshore of Texas and eastern
Mexico. Strong convection in the vicinity of AL92 also suggest
stronger gusty winds and rough seas are likely. Elsewhere, a
surface trough extends from the south-central basin into the
eastern bay of Campeche, and mainly moderate breezes are noted in
this region. Otherwise, ahead of these boundaries, winds are
moderate or weaker, and seas slight to moderate.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a
trough along the E Mexican offshores through today. Weak surface
ridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift eastward through late
today ahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf through Wed
before it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and
building seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead,
continued development of a broad area of low pressure over the
southwestern Gulf of America is expected, and a tropical
depression is anticipated to form over the next day or so while it
drifts eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds
and areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days. The disturbance is
expected to turn to the north or northeast toward the northern
Gulf Coast by the end of the week. Regardless of development,
fresh to near gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas are
forecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Fresh to locally strong NE to SE winds are occurring over the
eastern basin as noted on recent scatterometer data, associated
with a tropical wave progressing westward. Strong thunderstorms
are also noted in this vicinity. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trade
winds are occurring across much of the rest of the basin,
supported by the pressure gradient between a 1009 mb low over the
south-central Caribbean and high pressure to the northeast.
Locally fresh winds and 5-7 ft seas are occurring offshore of
northwest Colombia. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and
thunderstorms are offshore Panama associated with the eastern
extension of the Pacific monsoon trough.
For the forecast, weak ridging SE of Bermuda will support
moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and central
Caribbean through this morning. Afterward, a cold front will move
across the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure
gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the
basin through early Thu. High pressure is forecast to redevelop
to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through
Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the trades over
the central Caribbean to fresh speeds Fri, then moderate to fresh
Fri night through Sat night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1013 mb low pressure is located off the northeastern coast of
Florida near 30.5N76.5W, and a stationary front extends eastward
to 31N71.5W, and southwestward into central Florida. Mainly
moderate NE to E winds are noted north of the front, though fresh
to locally strong NE winds are occurring immediately north of the
low, as noted on recent scatterometer data. Elsewhere, a surface
trough in the central Atlantic extends from a 1015 mb low near
31N37W to 25N40W to 27N45W. Mainly moderate to locally fresh S to
SW winds are occurring south and east of this feature, while
fresh to locally strong NW to W winds are occurring to the north
and west. Recent buoy and altimeter data depict 3 to 5 ft seas in
this region. Weak ridging prevails over the rest of the
subtropical and tropical waters, supporting moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front will transition
to a cold front and move slowly eastward across the area today,
then stall from Bermuda to NE Florida tonight into Wed. Fresh to
strong NW winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining
off NE Florida through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening,
high pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will
increase trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing
Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong
speeds again off NE Florida late on Fri as a low pressure,
possible tropical cyclone, moves northward across the Gulf of
America.
$$
ADAMS
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Tue, 06 Oct 2026 16:41:19 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 061641
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Southwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
southwestern Gulf of America near 22N96W. Continued development
of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is
anticipated to form over the next day or so while it drifts
eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds and areas
of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico in a couple of days. The disturbance is expected to turn to
the north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end
of the week. Regardless of development, fresh to near gale-force
winds and rough to very rough seas are forecast over portions of
Gulf Wed through Sat night. Numerous moderate to strong convection
extends from 19N to 26N between 93W and 97W. Chances of tropical
cyclone formation through the next 48 hours are high.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with an axis near 64.5W,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 60W and 65W.
The wave is also enhancing fresh to strong E to SE winds across
the central Lesser Antilles and adjacent waters, as noted on
recent scatterometer satellite data.
A tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa is near
18W, extending from 06N to 16N. Scattered moderate convection is
noted near the northern end of the wave axis.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and extends to
14.5N27W to 07.5N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N40W to 06N46W to
10N58W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 17N
between 23W and 40W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please read the Special Features section above for more
information on Invest AL92.
A 1008 low is located over the northeastern Gulf near 29.5N86.5W,
and a stationary front extends toward the southeast toward the
Big Bend of Florida, and fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and
2 to 4 ft seas are occurring north of these features. The
stationary front also extends toward the west and southwest,
paralleling the northern and western Gulf Coast. A surface trough
then continues from the tail of the front along the E Mexico
offshores to Invest AL92 low to the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to
locally strong NE to NW winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are noted north
and west of these features, just offshore of Texas and eastern
Mexico. Strong convection in the vicinity of AL92 also suggest
stronger gusty winds and rough seas are likely. Elsewhere, a
surface trough extends from the south-central basin into the
eastern bay of Campeche, and mainly moderate breezes are noted in
this region. Otherwise, ahead of these boundaries, winds are
moderate or weaker, and seas slight to moderate.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a
trough along the E Mexican offshores through today. Weak surface
ridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift eastward through late
today ahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf through Wed
before it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and
building seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead,
continued development of a broad area of low pressure over the
southwestern Gulf of America is expected, and a tropical
depression is anticipated to form over the next day or so while it
drifts eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds
and areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days. The disturbance is
expected to turn to the north or northeast toward the northern
Gulf Coast by the end of the week. Regardless of development,
fresh to near gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas are
forecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Fresh to locally strong NE to SE winds are occurring over the
eastern basin as noted on recent scatterometer data, associated
with a tropical wave progressing westward. Strong thunderstorms
are also noted in this vicinity. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trade
winds are occurring across much of the rest of the basin,
supported by the pressure gradient between a 1009 mb low over the
south-central Caribbean and high pressure to the northeast.
Locally fresh winds and 5-7 ft seas are occurring offshore of
northwest Colombia. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and
thunderstorms are offshore Panama associated with the eastern
extension of the Pacific monsoon trough.
For the forecast, weak ridging SE of Bermuda will support
moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and central
Caribbean through this morning. Afterward, a cold front will move
across the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure
gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the
basin through early Thu. High pressure is forecast to redevelop
to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through
Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the trades over
the central Caribbean to fresh speeds Fri, then moderate to fresh
Fri night through Sat night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1013 mb low pressure is located off the northeastern coast of
Florida near 30.5N76.5W, and a stationary front extends eastward
to 31N71.5W, and southwestward into central Florida. Mainly
moderate NE to E winds are noted north of the front, though fresh
to locally strong NE winds are occurring immediately north of the
low, as noted on recent scatterometer data. Elsewhere, a surface
trough in the central Atlantic extends from a 1015 mb low near
31N37W to 25N40W to 27N45W. Mainly moderate to locally fresh S to
SW winds are occurring south and east of this feature, while
fresh to locally strong NW to W winds are occurring to the north
and west. Recent buoy and altimeter data depict 3 to 5 ft seas in
this region. Weak ridging prevails over the rest of the
subtropical and tropical waters, supporting moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front will transition
to a cold front and move slowly eastward across the area today,
then stall from Bermuda to NE Florida tonight into Wed. Fresh to
strong NW winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining
off NE Florida through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening,
high pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will
increase trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing
Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong
speeds again off NE Florida late on Fri as a low pressure,
possible tropical cyclone, moves northward across the Gulf of
America.
$$
ADAMS
Active Tropical Systems
- Thu, 08 Oct 2026 05:33:52 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 06 Oct 2026 19:01:45 GMT - Tue, 06 Oct 2026 17:33:52 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 061733
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92):
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that showers and
thunderstorms are becoming better organized while surface pressures
are gradually falling. If these trends continue, advisories will
likely be issued on this system later today or tonight while it
moves slowly eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds
and areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days.
The disturbance is expected to turn to the north or northeast toward
the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. It is still too
early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but
interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should closely
monitor the progress of this system. The NOAA Gulfstream jet is en
route to sample the environment over the Gulf this afternoon and Air
Force and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate
the system tomorrow.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Tue, 06 Oct 2026 17:22:25 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 061722
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0125 PM EDT TUE 06 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-128
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA AL92 (SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF AMERICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 43
A. 07/1200Z A. 07/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE B. NOAA3 0309A CYCLONE
C. 07/1000Z C. 07/1400Z
D. 22.1N 94.1W D. 22.2N 93.5W
E. 07/1130Z TO 07/1500Z E. 07/1600Z TO 07/2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR & FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION
I. RESOURCES PERMITTING
FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 49 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 72
A. 08/0000Z A. 07/2330Z,08/0530Z
B. NOAA9 0409A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0509A CYCLONE
C. 07/1730Z C. 07/2130Z
D. NA D. 22.4N 92.7W
E. NA E. 07/2300Z TO 08/0530Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE G. FIX
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION
FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 43 FLIGHT SIX - TEAL 73
A. 08/0600Z A. 08/1130Z,1730Z
B. NOAA3 0609A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0709A CYCLONE
C. 08/0200Z C. 08/0930Z
D. 22.5N 92.0W D. 22.2N 91.3W
E. 08/0400Z TO 08/0800Z E. 08/1100Z TO 08/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR & FIX G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES INTO AL92. BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES AT
09/0830Z.
B. NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO AL92 FOR
FOR 08/1800Z AND 09/0600Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 08/1400Z AND
09/0200Z, RESPECTIVELY.
C. NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND AL92 FOR
09/0000Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 08/1730Z.
3. REMARK: DURING THE NOAA 43 MISSION TASKED FOR THE 08/0600Z
SYNOPTIC TIME, TWO SMALL UAS ARE PLANNED FOR RELEASE WITHIN
THE WRA. THEY WILL OPERATE AT OR BELOW 5,000 FT FOR ABOUT
1 TO 2 HOURS.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
KAL
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf