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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2026 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Wed, 23 Sep 2026 18:05:26 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    926
    AXNT20 KNHC 231804
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1815 UTC Wed Sep 23 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1600 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Central Subtropical Atlantic (Former Tropical Storm Fay):
    The remnant low pressure of 1013 mb is centered near 30.5N37.5W.
    Winds of 20-25 kt continue within 180 nm across the N semicircle,
    where buoy observations suggest seas are 7 to 10 ft. Scattered
    moderate convection has increased in recent hours, and within 90
    nm across the NE semicircle of the low. While environmental
    conditions are only marginally conducive for development, this
    system could become a tropical depression again today or tonight
    if the current thunderstorm activity persists. The system is
    forecast to move westward during the next couple of days, and by
    the weekend upper-level winds should inhibit formation chances.
    This system has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours.

    Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
    A new tropical wave has emerged off the coast of West Africa and
    has been analyzed along 18W, S of 15W. Satellite derived winds
    also depicted a low along the wave axis near 09N15W. Numerous
    moderate convection is noted from 07.5N to 13N and east of 22W.
    This area of low pressure is gradually becoming better defined,
    and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased
    since yesterday. This system could become a short-lived tropical
    depression on Thursday or Friday while it moves northwestward to
    northward. However, strong upper-level winds should end the
    opportunity for development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo
    Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty
    winds, areas of heavy rain and flash flooding is possible there by
    Friday. This system has a medium chance of formation in the next
    48 hours.

    Heavy Rainfall in Central America, Jamaica, and Cuba: A mid to
    upper-level trough currently extends from the eastern Gulf of
    America across the Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while
    relatively warm sea surface temperatures and abundant low level
    moisture are present. An elongated low level trough will prevail
    across this area during the next several days, and aid in
    funneling enhanced tropical moisture across Central America and
    the western Caribbean, supporting periods of heavy rainfall
    through Sat the 26th. There is still some uncertainty regarding
    the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy
    rainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near
    Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El
    Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as well as across portions
    of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, heavy rainfall is ongoing
    from the NW coastal waters of Jamaica, westward across the Cayman
    Islands to 87W and then northward across east-central Cuba to
    Andros Island in the Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection are
    elsewhere across the Gulf of Honduras, and the remainder of the
    Bahamas. Heavy rainfall in these regions will create the
    possibility of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.
    Please refer to local weather services as well as the
    International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more
    information.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A new tropical wave has emerged off the coast of West Africa and
    has been analyzed along 18W, S of 15W. Please refer to the Special
    Features section above for more information on this tropical wave.

    An Atlantic tropical
    wave is analyzed along 45W, S of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt.
    Isolated moderate convection is from 09.5N to 12N between 42.5W
    and 46W.

    An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 60W south of 15N,
    moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
    depicted south of 09N and west of 58W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough exits Africa near 12N16.5W and extends
    southwestward to 07N48W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
    continues to 09N58W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong
    convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 22W and 27W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A weak pressure gradient remains across the Gulf basin as
    weakening high pressure across the SE U.S. extends a ridge across
    the northern Gulf. A broad and persistent middle to upper-level
    trough over the eastern Gulf is supporting very active
    thunderstorms over portions of the NW Caribbean and across eastern
    Cuba into the Bahamas, while convection across the Gulf has
    diminished in recent hours, with widely scattered moderate
    convection across the Straits of Florida and into the SW Florida
    waters across the Fort Meyers area. A weak surface trough lingers
    from central Florida into the the SW Gulf to the Yucatan Channel.
    The current surface pattern is generally producing light to
    gentle easterly winds and slight seas across the Gulf.

    For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate gentle
    to moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. An upper-level
    trough will support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
    SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next couple of
    days. A cold front is forecast to move into the NE Gulf Thu night
    and Fri. The front will shift southward before stalling over the
    SE Gulf this weekend.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please refer to the Special Features section above for information
    on impactful weather across the northwestern Caribbean.

    Outside of the active convection across the NW Caribbean, fair
    weather dominates most of the basin. Scattered showers accompany a
    low-level trough moving across the Virgin Islands. At the
    surface, a weak pressure pattern prevails across the basin.
    Moderate trades prevail across most of the basin, where seas are 2
    to 4 ft, while fresh winds are S of 14N to the coasts of NW
    Venezuela and extreme NE Colombia, where seas are 4 to 6 ft.
    Outside of convection, light to gentle winds and slight seas
    prevail across the SW Caribbean.

    For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate moderate
    to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to
    moderate winds elsewhere. An upper-level trough will support
    scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W
    Caribbean for at least the next couple of days.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please see the Special Features section above for more
    information on the Central Subtropical Atlantic system (Former
    Tropical Storm Fay).

    Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active across
    the NW Caribbean, across eastern Cuba and over much of the Bahamas
    and adjacent Atlantic waters W of 67W. This activity is occurring
    due to the combination of ample moisture across the area and
    unstable conditions created by the persistent and deep layered
    upper trough across the eastern Gulf of America and NW Caribbean.
    Another upper-level low is drifting westward near 25N50W. This
    feature is interacting with several surface troughs in the central
    Atlantic resulting in an area of scattered moderate convection
    from 22N to 28N between 46W and 53.5W. Outside of this convection,
    a weak pressure gradient continues across much of the Atlantic.
    This pattern is sustaining mostly gentle to moderate trades S of
    20N and variable light to gentle winds elsewhere W of 35W, except
    for moderate SE to S winds over the area N of 26.5N between 57W
    and 73W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across this. Elsewhere, seas are 4 to
    6 ft.

    For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will
    support gentle to moderate trades across forecast waters through
    tonight. An upper- level trough will produce scattered showers and
    thunderstorms west of 65W for the next couple of days. A cold
    front will move off the SE United States coast late tonight. The
    front will shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the
    straits of Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. Fresh to
    strong winds and increasing seas will follow the front on Thu and
    Fri, before decreasing on Sat.

    $$
    KRV
Tropical Weather Discussion
  • Wed, 23 Sep 2026 18:05:26 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    926
    AXNT20 KNHC 231804
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1815 UTC Wed Sep 23 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1600 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Central Subtropical Atlantic (Former Tropical Storm Fay):
    The remnant low pressure of 1013 mb is centered near 30.5N37.5W.
    Winds of 20-25 kt continue within 180 nm across the N semicircle,
    where buoy observations suggest seas are 7 to 10 ft. Scattered
    moderate convection has increased in recent hours, and within 90
    nm across the NE semicircle of the low. While environmental
    conditions are only marginally conducive for development, this
    system could become a tropical depression again today or tonight
    if the current thunderstorm activity persists. The system is
    forecast to move westward during the next couple of days, and by
    the weekend upper-level winds should inhibit formation chances.
    This system has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours.

    Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
    A new tropical wave has emerged off the coast of West Africa and
    has been analyzed along 18W, S of 15W. Satellite derived winds
    also depicted a low along the wave axis near 09N15W. Numerous
    moderate convection is noted from 07.5N to 13N and east of 22W.
    This area of low pressure is gradually becoming better defined,
    and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased
    since yesterday. This system could become a short-lived tropical
    depression on Thursday or Friday while it moves northwestward to
    northward. However, strong upper-level winds should end the
    opportunity for development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo
    Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty
    winds, areas of heavy rain and flash flooding is possible there by
    Friday. This system has a medium chance of formation in the next
    48 hours.

    Heavy Rainfall in Central America, Jamaica, and Cuba: A mid to
    upper-level trough currently extends from the eastern Gulf of
    America across the Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while
    relatively warm sea surface temperatures and abundant low level
    moisture are present. An elongated low level trough will prevail
    across this area during the next several days, and aid in
    funneling enhanced tropical moisture across Central America and
    the western Caribbean, supporting periods of heavy rainfall
    through Sat the 26th. There is still some uncertainty regarding
    the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy
    rainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near
    Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El
    Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as well as across portions
    of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, heavy rainfall is ongoing
    from the NW coastal waters of Jamaica, westward across the Cayman
    Islands to 87W and then northward across east-central Cuba to
    Andros Island in the Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection are
    elsewhere across the Gulf of Honduras, and the remainder of the
    Bahamas. Heavy rainfall in these regions will create the
    possibility of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.
    Please refer to local weather services as well as the
    International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more
    information.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A new tropical wave has emerged off the coast of West Africa and
    has been analyzed along 18W, S of 15W. Please refer to the Special
    Features section above for more information on this tropical wave.

    An Atlantic tropical
    wave is analyzed along 45W, S of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt.
    Isolated moderate convection is from 09.5N to 12N between 42.5W
    and 46W.

    An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 60W south of 15N,
    moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
    depicted south of 09N and west of 58W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough exits Africa near 12N16.5W and extends
    southwestward to 07N48W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
    continues to 09N58W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong
    convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 22W and 27W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A weak pressure gradient remains across the Gulf basin as
    weakening high pressure across the SE U.S. extends a ridge across
    the northern Gulf. A broad and persistent middle to upper-level
    trough over the eastern Gulf is supporting very active
    thunderstorms over portions of the NW Caribbean and across eastern
    Cuba into the Bahamas, while convection across the Gulf has
    diminished in recent hours, with widely scattered moderate
    convection across the Straits of Florida and into the SW Florida
    waters across the Fort Meyers area. A weak surface trough lingers
    from central Florida into the the SW Gulf to the Yucatan Channel.
    The current surface pattern is generally producing light to
    gentle easterly winds and slight seas across the Gulf.

    For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate gentle
    to moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. An upper-level
    trough will support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
    SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next couple of
    days. A cold front is forecast to move into the NE Gulf Thu night
    and Fri. The front will shift southward before stalling over the
    SE Gulf this weekend.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please refer to the Special Features section above for information
    on impactful weather across the northwestern Caribbean.

    Outside of the active convection across the NW Caribbean, fair
    weather dominates most of the basin. Scattered showers accompany a
    low-level trough moving across the Virgin Islands. At the
    surface, a weak pressure pattern prevails across the basin.
    Moderate trades prevail across most of the basin, where seas are 2
    to 4 ft, while fresh winds are S of 14N to the coasts of NW
    Venezuela and extreme NE Colombia, where seas are 4 to 6 ft.
    Outside of convection, light to gentle winds and slight seas
    prevail across the SW Caribbean.

    For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate moderate
    to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to
    moderate winds elsewhere. An upper-level trough will support
    scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W
    Caribbean for at least the next couple of days.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please see the Special Features section above for more
    information on the Central Subtropical Atlantic system (Former
    Tropical Storm Fay).

    Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active across
    the NW Caribbean, across eastern Cuba and over much of the Bahamas
    and adjacent Atlantic waters W of 67W. This activity is occurring
    due to the combination of ample moisture across the area and
    unstable conditions created by the persistent and deep layered
    upper trough across the eastern Gulf of America and NW Caribbean.
    Another upper-level low is drifting westward near 25N50W. This
    feature is interacting with several surface troughs in the central
    Atlantic resulting in an area of scattered moderate convection
    from 22N to 28N between 46W and 53.5W. Outside of this convection,
    a weak pressure gradient continues across much of the Atlantic.
    This pattern is sustaining mostly gentle to moderate trades S of
    20N and variable light to gentle winds elsewhere W of 35W, except
    for moderate SE to S winds over the area N of 26.5N between 57W
    and 73W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across this. Elsewhere, seas are 4 to
    6 ft.

    For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will
    support gentle to moderate trades across forecast waters through
    tonight. An upper- level trough will produce scattered showers and
    thunderstorms west of 65W for the next couple of days. A cold
    front will move off the SE United States coast late tonight. The
    front will shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the
    straits of Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. Fresh to
    strong winds and increasing seas will follow the front on Thu and
    Fri, before decreasing on Sat.

    $$
    KRV
Active Tropical Systems
  • Wed, 23 Sep 2026 20:36:56 +0000: Tropical Depression Fay Graphics - NHC Atlantic


    Tropical Depression Fay 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2026 20:36:56 GMT
  • Wed, 23 Sep 2026 20:35:41 +0000: Tropical Depression Fay Forecast Discussion Number 15 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026
    000
    WTNT41 KNHC 232035
    TCDAT1
     
    Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  15
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
    900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026
     
    Convection has redeveloped around the center of Fay and has 
    persisted during the day.  An earlier ASCAT pass indicated that the 
    system still had a well-defined circulation. Therefore, Fay meets 
    the criteria to be classified as a tropical cyclone again.  
    The earlier ASCAT pass showed a maximum wind vector of around 
    31 kt and the most recent TAFB Dvorak classification was at T1.5/25 
    kt.  Based on the given data, Fay's intensity is estimated to be 30 
    kt.
     
    The cyclone is moving just a little south of due west, or around 
    260/8 kt, as it moves to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge to 
    the northwest. Fay is expected to continue on this general motion 
    for the next several days. The current NHC track forecast is in 
    line with the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids.
     
    There is a brief opportunity for Fay to regain tropical storm 
    status during the next day or so, however wind shear is expected to
    increase again after 36 h. This should lead to the cyclone 
    gradually weakening again, with the system becoming a post-tropical 
    remnant low by 60 h, and then dissipating around 96 h, as 
    suggested by simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF global 
    model.  The current NHC intensity forecast track is in line with 
    both the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. 
     
     
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
     
    INIT  23/2100Z 30.1N  39.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
     12H  24/0600Z 29.9N  40.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
     24H  24/1800Z 29.9N  41.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
     36H  25/0600Z 29.9N  42.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
     48H  25/1800Z 29.7N  43.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
     60H  26/0600Z 29.5N  44.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     72H  26/1800Z 29.5N  45.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     96H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
     
    $$
    Forecaster Katz/Pasch
  • Wed, 23 Sep 2026 20:35:13 +0000: Tropical Depression Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026
    000
    FONT11 KNHC 232035
    PWSAT1
                                                                        
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15         
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062026               
    2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026                                            
                                                                        
    AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR     
    LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
    WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH
  • Wed, 23 Sep 2026 20:34:39 +0000: Tropical Depression Fay Forecast Advisory Number 15 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026
    391 
    WTNT21 KNHC 232034
    TCMAT1
     
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062026
    2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026
     
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N  39.2W AT 23/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   7 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N  39.2W AT 23/2100Z
    AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N  38.8W
     
    FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.9N  40.5W
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW  80NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.9N  41.8W
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW  80NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.9N  42.8W
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
     
    FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.7N  43.7W
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
     
    FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.5N  44.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
     
    FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N  45.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
     
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N  39.2W
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH
  • Wed, 23 Sep 2026 20:34:39 +0000: Tropical Depression Fay Public Advisory Number 15 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026
    392 
    WTNT31 KNHC 232034
    TCPAT1
     
    BULLETIN
    Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number  15
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
    900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026
     
    ...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RE-DEVELOPS INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY...
     
     
    SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...30.1N 39.2W
    ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM SW OF THE AZORES
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES
     
     
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
     
     
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was
    located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 39.2 West.  The
    depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this 
    general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. 
     
    Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Some strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, but 
    gradual weakening should occur thereafter. 
     
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).
     
     
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.
     
     
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.
     
    $$
    Forecaster Katz/Pasch
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
  • Wed, 23 Sep 2026 16:28:06 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
    271
    NOUS42 KNHC 231628
    REPRPD
    WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
    CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
    1230 PM EDT WED 23 SEPTEMBER 2026
    SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
    VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2026
    TCPOD NUMBER.....26-116

    I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E
    FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 78
    A. 25/0000Z A. 25/0530Z,1130Z
    B. AFXXX 0115E CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0215E CYCLONE
    C. 24/2200Z C. 25/0330Z
    D. 15.7N 155.2W D. 16.2N 155.0W
    E. 24/2330Z TO 25/0300Z E. 25/0500Z TO 25/1130Z
    F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
    G. FIX G. FIX
    H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON TD 15-E.
    3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX OF HURRICANE POLO AT
    26/1800Z.
    4. REMARKS:
    A. THE NOAA 42 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION TASKED IN TCPOD
    26-115 FOR THE HURRICANE POLO 23/1800Z REQUIREMENT WILL
    NOT BE FLOWN.
    B. THE TEAL 71 FIX MISSION TASKED IN TCPOD 26-115 FOR THE POLO
    24/0600Z REQUIREMENT WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 23/1315Z.
    C. NOAA 42 MAY CONDUCT A 8-HOUR RESEARCH MISSION INTO
    HURRICANE POLO ON THURSDAY, DEPARTING KHRL AT 24/1300Z.
    DURING THE MISSION, FOUR SMALL UAS ARE PLANNED FOR RELEASE
    WITHIN THE STORM ENVIRONMENT. THEY WILL OPERATE AT OR BELOW
    5,000 FT FOR ABOUT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

    $$
    SEF

    NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
  • Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf
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