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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Thu, 20 Aug 2026 16:59:25 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 201659
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Aug 20 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 18N,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderated convection
is present from 06N to 14N and between 25W and 32W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W, south of 18N,
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 07N to 15N and between 32W and 47W.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W, south from the
Virgin Islands, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 59W and 65W.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 19N,
moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has
developed from 11N to 14N W of 79W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 16N17W and continues southwestward to 11N30W and to
10N49W. The ITCZ extends from 10N49W to 10N60W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 04N to
17N and east of 23W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Outflow from overnight convection in the southeastern U.S. has
moved southward into the far NE Gulf and is inducing scattered
moderate convection offshore the Florida Panhandle. Scattered
moderate convection is also noted in the western Bay of Campeche,
aided by the northern extent of an eastern Pacific tropical wave.
Otherwise, high pressure centered near 26N89W dominates. This is
supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds through the
basin, with slight seas. Some seas to 4 ft are ongoing in the Bay
of Campeche.
For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the
central Gulf will prevail over the basin through the forecast
period. A weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to
moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas across much of
the basin. A surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong
winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early
evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula
at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection in
the basin.
The pressure gradient between general higher pressure to the
north and low pressure centered over northern Colombia is
supporting fresh to strong trades over the south-central basin,
with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle over the NW
basin. Seas are moderate, except rough in the south-central and
slight in the NW.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean will force
fresh to locally near gale-force trades and rough seas across the
south-central Caribbean through much of the forecast period.
Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail over the
north-central and eastern Caribbean through the weekend and into
early next week, perhaps increase in coverage over the tropical
Atlantic and eastern Caribbean starting Sun night as a tropical
wave moves across those waters. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter
winds and slight to moderate seas are expected.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See Tropical Waves section for information on convection in deep
tropics.
A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N48W and
continues westward to 30N58W, where it devolves into a surface
trough and continues to 26N69W. Scattered moderate convection us
noted N of 26N between 47W and 65W and in association with these
features. The rest of the basin is under the influence of
subtropical ridging, supporting moderate or weaker winds and seas,
except for a belt of moderate to fresh trades between 12N and
24N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will
support mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters north
of 23N going into the upcoming weekend and into early next week.
Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh trades are expected south of
about 23N, especially off northern Hispaniola through the period.
$$
Konarik
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Thu, 20 Aug 2026 16:59:25 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 201659
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Aug 20 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 18N,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderated convection
is present from 06N to 14N and between 25W and 32W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W, south of 18N,
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 07N to 15N and between 32W and 47W.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W, south from the
Virgin Islands, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 59W and 65W.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 19N,
moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has
developed from 11N to 14N W of 79W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 16N17W and continues southwestward to 11N30W and to
10N49W. The ITCZ extends from 10N49W to 10N60W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 04N to
17N and east of 23W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Outflow from overnight convection in the southeastern U.S. has
moved southward into the far NE Gulf and is inducing scattered
moderate convection offshore the Florida Panhandle. Scattered
moderate convection is also noted in the western Bay of Campeche,
aided by the northern extent of an eastern Pacific tropical wave.
Otherwise, high pressure centered near 26N89W dominates. This is
supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds through the
basin, with slight seas. Some seas to 4 ft are ongoing in the Bay
of Campeche.
For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the
central Gulf will prevail over the basin through the forecast
period. A weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to
moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas across much of
the basin. A surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong
winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early
evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula
at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection in
the basin.
The pressure gradient between general higher pressure to the
north and low pressure centered over northern Colombia is
supporting fresh to strong trades over the south-central basin,
with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle over the NW
basin. Seas are moderate, except rough in the south-central and
slight in the NW.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean will force
fresh to locally near gale-force trades and rough seas across the
south-central Caribbean through much of the forecast period.
Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail over the
north-central and eastern Caribbean through the weekend and into
early next week, perhaps increase in coverage over the tropical
Atlantic and eastern Caribbean starting Sun night as a tropical
wave moves across those waters. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter
winds and slight to moderate seas are expected.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See Tropical Waves section for information on convection in deep
tropics.
A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N48W and
continues westward to 30N58W, where it devolves into a surface
trough and continues to 26N69W. Scattered moderate convection us
noted N of 26N between 47W and 65W and in association with these
features. The rest of the basin is under the influence of
subtropical ridging, supporting moderate or weaker winds and seas,
except for a belt of moderate to fresh trades between 12N and
24N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will
support mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters north
of 23N going into the upcoming weekend and into early next week.
Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh trades are expected south of
about 23N, especially off northern Hispaniola through the period.
$$
Konarik
Active Tropical Systems
- Sat, 22 Aug 2026 05:22:18 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 20 Aug 2026 19:02:35 GMT - Thu, 20 Aug 2026 17:22:18 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 201722
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northeastern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to develop along a
front over the northeastern Atlantic by early Friday. This system
could separate from its fronts and acquire some subtropical or
tropical characteristics later this weekend while it moves generally
eastward or east-northeastward toward Portugal and northwestern
Spain. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by
Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at
https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Thu, 20 Aug 2026 16:05:13 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
447
NOUS42 KNHC 201605
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1205 PM EDT THU 20 AUGUST 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-081
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 42
A. 21/1730Z,2330Z A. 22/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0102C CYCLONE B. NOAA2 0202C CYCLONE
C. 21/1430Z C. 21/2000Z
D. 13.6N 146.8W D. 14.0N 147.5W
E. 21/1700Z TO 21/2330Z E. 21/2200Z TO 22/0230Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. FIX G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION
FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 78
A. 22/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 0302C CYCLONE
C. 22/0230Z
D. 14.5N 148.4W
E. 22/0500Z TO 22/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO TD 2-C FOR
23/0000Z, DEPARTING PHJR AT 22/2000Z.
3. REMARK: DURING THE NOAA 42 MISSION TASKED FOR THE 22/0000Z
SYNOPTIC TIME, FOUR SMALL UAS ARE PLANNED FOR RELEASE WITHIN
THE WRA. THEY WILL OPERATE AT OR BELOW 5,000 FT FOR ABOUT
1 TO 2 HOURS.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf