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DONATE2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Thu, 02 Oct 2025 18:19:20 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
835
AXNT20 KNHC 021818
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Oct 2 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Gale Warning:
Imelda has become a strong extra-tropical cyclone and is located
near 33.2N 59.5W or 275 nm ENE of Bermuda at 02/1500Z. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Imelda is moving ENE
at 25 kt and the maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to
80 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen mainly up to 200 nm
from the center at the northeast quadrant. Near-gale to gale-force
SE to NW winds with seas at 14 to 22 ft are found south of Imelda
from 26N to 31N between 56W and 65W. A general ENE to NE motion is
expected with Imelda through Saturday. A slow weakening trend is
forecast but Imelda will remain a large and powerful extra-
tropical cyclone across the north Atlantic for the next few days.
This will cause the near-gale to gale-force winds and very rough
to high seas to also shift northeastward through Friday.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
information.
For the last Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory issued by the
National Hurricane Center on extra-tropical cyclone Imelda, please
visit https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents
for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated to near
31W from 19N southward, and moving west at 15 kt. Very dry air at
low and mid levels is hindering any significant convection.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 18N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The lack of moisture at the lower
parts of the atmosphere is prohibiting convection.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near
the Saloum Delta National Park, then extends west-southwestward
across 09N30W to 05N43W. An ITCZ continues westward from 05N43W to
near the coastal border of Suriname and French Guiana. Scattered
moderate convection is observed near the trough between 20W and
26W, and farther west between 36W and 43W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is found south of the trough from 04N
to 08N between 40W and the Sierra Leon-Liberia coast. Similar
convection is also present up to 200 nm north and 130 nm south of
the ITCZ between 43W and 50W.
Aided by an upper-level trough in the vicinity, the eastern end of
the East Pacific monsoon trough is creating scattered heavy
showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across the southwestern
and south-central Caribbean Basin.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A couple of surface troughs are generating scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection from the Bay of Campeche eastward to
north of the Yucatan Peninsula and Channel, and isolated
thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh with
locally strong ENE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft dominate the
northeastern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and 2 to 4
ft seas are noted at the western Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle
winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are evident across the Florida Straits,
eastern Bay of Campeche. and near the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to
moderate NE to SW winds and seas of 1 to 4 ft prevail for the rest
of the Gulf.
For the forecast, building high pressure over the central and
eastern United States will dominate the Gulf waters through the
end of the week. Fresh to strong NW winds will pulse off Veracruz
tonight and Fri. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient between the
aforementioned ridge and a developing low pressure forecast to
move across the Florida Peninsula into the Gulf of America will
lead to fresh to strong E winds and rough seas in the
northeastern Gulf tonight, expanding into the north-central and
northwestern Gulf Fri through Sat night. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms can also be expected in these areas. Winds
and seas will diminish Sun when the low pressure lift north and
out of the Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper-level trough extending southwestward from near Puerto
Rico to Panama is enhancing isolated thunderstorms across the lee
of Cuba and near the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Caribbean Sea. A weak ridge is providing moderate with locally
fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas at the south-central basin.
Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail elsewhere in
the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, the weak ridge will support mainly moderate or
lighter trade winds and slight to moderate seas. Meanwhile,
northerly swell generated by post-tropical cyclone Imelda will
reach the passages of the northeastern Caribbean, allowing rough
seas Fri through early next week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please read the Special Features section at the very beginning on
Extra-tropical Cyclone Imelda in north Atlantic, and a Gale
Warning in the western Atlantic.
A frontal trough curves southwestward from near Imelda across
31N60W to near the northwest Bahamas, scattered to numerous heavy
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near and up to 145
nm southeast of this feature. Farther southeast, two surface
troughs are producing scattered showers from 14N to 24N between
40W and 50W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the
beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic.
Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE to SE to SW
winds and seas of 8 to 13 ft are evident north of 25N and west of
48W. To the east, gentle to moderate NE to S-SW winds with 6 to 7
ft seas exist north of 16N between 35W and 50W. From 16N to 25N
between 50W and the southeast Bahamas/Leeward Islands, light to
gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are present. For the remainder
of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate with locally fresh
southerly winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate swells
prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, as extra-tropical cyclone Imelda
continues to move away farther north of 31N, a ridge will build
westward across the western Atlantic. Long-period northerly swell
generated by former hurricane Humberto and Hurricane Imelda will
continue to affect just about the entire western Atlantic through
early next week. Near-gale to gale-force winds will shift
eastward north of 29N and east of 65W through late tonight.
Meanwhile, an area of low pressure may form along a remnant
frontal boundary near the northwest Bahamas and southern Florida
over the next couple of days. Any additional development is
expected to be slow to occur as the system moves northwestward
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of America. The
pressure gradient between this system and a building ridge over
the eastern United States will force fresh to strong E winds
across the waters off northeastern Florida and the northwest
Bahamas today through the weekend.
$$
Chan
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Thu, 02 Oct 2025 18:19:20 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
835
AXNT20 KNHC 021818
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Oct 2 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Gale Warning:
Imelda has become a strong extra-tropical cyclone and is located
near 33.2N 59.5W or 275 nm ENE of Bermuda at 02/1500Z. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Imelda is moving ENE
at 25 kt and the maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to
80 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen mainly up to 200 nm
from the center at the northeast quadrant. Near-gale to gale-force
SE to NW winds with seas at 14 to 22 ft are found south of Imelda
from 26N to 31N between 56W and 65W. A general ENE to NE motion is
expected with Imelda through Saturday. A slow weakening trend is
forecast but Imelda will remain a large and powerful extra-
tropical cyclone across the north Atlantic for the next few days.
This will cause the near-gale to gale-force winds and very rough
to high seas to also shift northeastward through Friday.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
information.
For the last Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory issued by the
National Hurricane Center on extra-tropical cyclone Imelda, please
visit https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents
for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated to near
31W from 19N southward, and moving west at 15 kt. Very dry air at
low and mid levels is hindering any significant convection.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 18N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The lack of moisture at the lower
parts of the atmosphere is prohibiting convection.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near
the Saloum Delta National Park, then extends west-southwestward
across 09N30W to 05N43W. An ITCZ continues westward from 05N43W to
near the coastal border of Suriname and French Guiana. Scattered
moderate convection is observed near the trough between 20W and
26W, and farther west between 36W and 43W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is found south of the trough from 04N
to 08N between 40W and the Sierra Leon-Liberia coast. Similar
convection is also present up to 200 nm north and 130 nm south of
the ITCZ between 43W and 50W.
Aided by an upper-level trough in the vicinity, the eastern end of
the East Pacific monsoon trough is creating scattered heavy
showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across the southwestern
and south-central Caribbean Basin.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A couple of surface troughs are generating scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection from the Bay of Campeche eastward to
north of the Yucatan Peninsula and Channel, and isolated
thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh with
locally strong ENE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft dominate the
northeastern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and 2 to 4
ft seas are noted at the western Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle
winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are evident across the Florida Straits,
eastern Bay of Campeche. and near the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to
moderate NE to SW winds and seas of 1 to 4 ft prevail for the rest
of the Gulf.
For the forecast, building high pressure over the central and
eastern United States will dominate the Gulf waters through the
end of the week. Fresh to strong NW winds will pulse off Veracruz
tonight and Fri. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient between the
aforementioned ridge and a developing low pressure forecast to
move across the Florida Peninsula into the Gulf of America will
lead to fresh to strong E winds and rough seas in the
northeastern Gulf tonight, expanding into the north-central and
northwestern Gulf Fri through Sat night. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms can also be expected in these areas. Winds
and seas will diminish Sun when the low pressure lift north and
out of the Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper-level trough extending southwestward from near Puerto
Rico to Panama is enhancing isolated thunderstorms across the lee
of Cuba and near the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Caribbean Sea. A weak ridge is providing moderate with locally
fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas at the south-central basin.
Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail elsewhere in
the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, the weak ridge will support mainly moderate or
lighter trade winds and slight to moderate seas. Meanwhile,
northerly swell generated by post-tropical cyclone Imelda will
reach the passages of the northeastern Caribbean, allowing rough
seas Fri through early next week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please read the Special Features section at the very beginning on
Extra-tropical Cyclone Imelda in north Atlantic, and a Gale
Warning in the western Atlantic.
A frontal trough curves southwestward from near Imelda across
31N60W to near the northwest Bahamas, scattered to numerous heavy
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near and up to 145
nm southeast of this feature. Farther southeast, two surface
troughs are producing scattered showers from 14N to 24N between
40W and 50W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the
beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic.
Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE to SE to SW
winds and seas of 8 to 13 ft are evident north of 25N and west of
48W. To the east, gentle to moderate NE to S-SW winds with 6 to 7
ft seas exist north of 16N between 35W and 50W. From 16N to 25N
between 50W and the southeast Bahamas/Leeward Islands, light to
gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are present. For the remainder
of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate with locally fresh
southerly winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate swells
prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, as extra-tropical cyclone Imelda
continues to move away farther north of 31N, a ridge will build
westward across the western Atlantic. Long-period northerly swell
generated by former hurricane Humberto and Hurricane Imelda will
continue to affect just about the entire western Atlantic through
early next week. Near-gale to gale-force winds will shift
eastward north of 29N and east of 65W through late tonight.
Meanwhile, an area of low pressure may form along a remnant
frontal boundary near the northwest Bahamas and southern Florida
over the next couple of days. Any additional development is
expected to be slow to occur as the system moves northwestward
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of America. The
pressure gradient between this system and a building ridge over
the eastern United States will force fresh to strong E winds
across the waters off northeastern Florida and the northwest
Bahamas today through the weekend.
$$
Chan
Active Tropical Systems
- Thu, 02 Oct 2025 17:18:08 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 021718
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda, located east-northeast of Bermuda.
Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure may form along a remnant frontal boundary
near the northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida during the next
day or two. Any additional development is expected to be slow to
occur as the system moves northwestward across the Florida Peninsula
and into the Gulf of America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the
next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with
another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow
development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart - Thu, 02 Oct 2025 15:22:24 +0000: Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Graphics - NHC Atlantic
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 02 Oct 2025 14:50:10 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 02 Oct 2025 15:22:24 GMT - Thu, 02 Oct 2025 14:48:37 +0000: Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Forecast Discussion Number 24 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025000 WTNT44 KNHC 021448 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025 Imelda is no longer a tropical cyclone. Visible satellite images and global model fields indicate that a front extends into the center of the cyclone from the east-northeast, while another frontal feature has developed to the south of the cyclone. This is consistent with overnight microwave data that showed Imelda taking the appearance of an occluded cyclone, as well as recent satellite trends that show the remaining convection is mainly focused along these fronts. Therefore, Imelda is classified as a 65-kt extratropical cyclone this morning, and this will be the final NHC advisory on the system. Post-tropical Imelda is racing toward the east-northeast (075/25 kt) away from Bermuda. The cyclone is expected to turn northeastward on Friday ahead of an amplifying upper-level trough over the northern Atlantic, then turn back toward the east-northeast by Sunday within the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is in much better agreement than yesterday, and the NHC forecast lies near the center of the envelope between the HCCA and TVCA aids. Baroclinic forcing from the upper trough will likely cause the cyclone to remain a large, storm-force low through the weekend. Even though the peak winds are forecast to gradually diminish, a large area of 34- and 50-kt winds will create hazardous marine conditions and large swell that will continue to affect an expansive portion of the western and central Atlantic. Additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gusty winds over Bermuda will gradually subside today. 2. Swells and high surf from Imelda are expected to produce dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much of the East Coast of the United States and the western Atlantic during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 33.2N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 03/0000Z 34.3N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 03/1200Z 36.3N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 04/0000Z 38.9N 49.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 04/1200Z 41.7N 47.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 05/0000Z 44.6N 44.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 05/1200Z 47.1N 40.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 06/1200Z 50.0N 30.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
- Thu, 02 Oct 2025 14:46:39 +0000: Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 02 2025000 FONT14 KNHC 021446 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IMELDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025 1500 UTC THU OCT 02 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IMELDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER REINHART - Thu, 02 Oct 2025 14:46:34 +0000: Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Public Advisory Number 24 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025203 WTNT34 KNHC 021446 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025 ...IMELDA BECOMES A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.2N 59.5W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 59.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A northeastward motion is then forecast on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, but the post-tropical cyclone will remain a large and powerful system as it moves across the central Atlantic. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and gale-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Gusty winds on Bermuda are expected to gradually subside today. SURF: Distant swells generated by Imelda are affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the U.S. East Coast. Swells from Imelda will spread toward the Greater Antilles and northern Leeward Islands on Friday and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Thu, 02 Oct 2025 13:28:34 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 021328
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT THU 02 OCTOBER 2025
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z OCTOBER 2025
TCPOD NUMBER.....25-124
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
KAL
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf