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2026 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models

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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2026 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 7 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Mon, 14 Sep 2026 16:05:48 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 141605
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1815 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1600 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The two tropical waves previously analyzed over the central
    Atlantic have merged into a single tropical wave, according
    satellite imagery and tropical wave diagnostics. The wave axis is
    along 50W, south of 18N. Scattered moderate convection is depicted
    from 11.5N to 16N between 48W and 54.5W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and continues
    to 08N30W to 09N52W. The ITCZ extends from 09N52W to near 10N60W.
    Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection
    is present from 05N to 14.5N and east of 45W. Isolated moderate
    convection is present from 10N to 14N between 55W and the Lesser
    Antilles.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    Scattered moderate convection is noted off Veracruz in the Bay of
    Campeche. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also affecting
    portions of the western and eastern Gulf. A 1018 mb high pressure
    system over the northern Gulf dominates the Gulf waters,
    supporting moderate to fresh SE winds over the Bay of Campeche.
    Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

    For the forecast, weak ridging over the NE Gulf will persist into
    Tue supporting relatively tranquil conditions across much of the
    basin. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where a diurnal
    trough will move westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each
    evening through late this week, bringing nightly pulses of fresh
    NE winds. Starting late Tue, stronger high pressure building
    southward from the eastern United States will lead to increasing
    NE to E winds over the basin, with speeds reaching fresh to strong
    and rough seas over the northern Gulf Wed through Thu night.
    Conditions will improve Fri.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Middle to upper-level low pressure is centered over the Hispaniola,
    and promoting unstable conditions over south and east portions of
    the Caribbean. Multi-layered clouds with scattered showers and a
    few thunderstorms prevail over most of the eastern basin E of 71W.
    Scattered strong convection is occurring across the SW Caribbean
    south of 15N.

    A tight pressure gradient continues to support fresh to strong
    easterly trade winds and rough seas across much of the central
    Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E
    winds and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean and
    Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
    to moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the NW basin.

    For the forecast, the subtropical ridge centered north of the
    Bahamas and lower pressures in Colombia combine to sustain fresh
    to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds and moderate to
    rough seas across much of the central Caribbean, with moderate to
    fresh trades elsewhere from 11N to 18N. These conditions will
    persist through the workweek. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds
    and slight to moderate seas are expected, except moderate to
    fresh mainly in the evenings near the Windward Passage and Lee of
    Cuba through midweek.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A broad subtropical ridge dominates the SW North Atlantic,
    allowing for light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas
    across much of the area, west of 55W. Moderate easterly winds are
    noted off northern Hispaniola and western Cuba. A surface trough
    along 49.5W in the central Atlantic is producing numerous showers
    and isolated thunderstorms north of 25N and between 44.5W and
    51W. Gusty winds and higher seas are likely occurring near these
    storms. Another surface trough is supporting scattered showers
    and isolated thunderstorms north of 26N between 57W and 59.5W.
    Elsewhere, an expansive ridge persists in the central and eastern
    Atlantic, supporting moderate or weaker seas and moderate seas
    across the area.

    For the forecast west of 55W, a broad subtropical ridge dominates
    much of the basin, forcing fresh easterly winds off Hispaniola
    and in the Windward Passage. On Tue, strong high pressure building
    southward through the eastern United States will bring a cold
    front into the NW waters, increasing NE winds to fresh to locally
    strong and causing seas to build to rough N of the Bahamas and W
    of 70W through Thu. Conditions will improve Thu night into Fri.
    During the middle to later portion of the week, a trough of low
    pressure is forecast to move west-northwestward into the NE
    portion of the waters, bringing thunderstorms.

    $$
    KRV
Tropical Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 14 Sep 2026 16:05:48 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 141605
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1815 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1600 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The two tropical waves previously analyzed over the central
    Atlantic have merged into a single tropical wave, according
    satellite imagery and tropical wave diagnostics. The wave axis is
    along 50W, south of 18N. Scattered moderate convection is depicted
    from 11.5N to 16N between 48W and 54.5W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and continues
    to 08N30W to 09N52W. The ITCZ extends from 09N52W to near 10N60W.
    Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection
    is present from 05N to 14.5N and east of 45W. Isolated moderate
    convection is present from 10N to 14N between 55W and the Lesser
    Antilles.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    Scattered moderate convection is noted off Veracruz in the Bay of
    Campeche. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also affecting
    portions of the western and eastern Gulf. A 1018 mb high pressure
    system over the northern Gulf dominates the Gulf waters,
    supporting moderate to fresh SE winds over the Bay of Campeche.
    Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

    For the forecast, weak ridging over the NE Gulf will persist into
    Tue supporting relatively tranquil conditions across much of the
    basin. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where a diurnal
    trough will move westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each
    evening through late this week, bringing nightly pulses of fresh
    NE winds. Starting late Tue, stronger high pressure building
    southward from the eastern United States will lead to increasing
    NE to E winds over the basin, with speeds reaching fresh to strong
    and rough seas over the northern Gulf Wed through Thu night.
    Conditions will improve Fri.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Middle to upper-level low pressure is centered over the Hispaniola,
    and promoting unstable conditions over south and east portions of
    the Caribbean. Multi-layered clouds with scattered showers and a
    few thunderstorms prevail over most of the eastern basin E of 71W.
    Scattered strong convection is occurring across the SW Caribbean
    south of 15N.

    A tight pressure gradient continues to support fresh to strong
    easterly trade winds and rough seas across much of the central
    Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E
    winds and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean and
    Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
    to moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the NW basin.

    For the forecast, the subtropical ridge centered north of the
    Bahamas and lower pressures in Colombia combine to sustain fresh
    to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds and moderate to
    rough seas across much of the central Caribbean, with moderate to
    fresh trades elsewhere from 11N to 18N. These conditions will
    persist through the workweek. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds
    and slight to moderate seas are expected, except moderate to
    fresh mainly in the evenings near the Windward Passage and Lee of
    Cuba through midweek.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A broad subtropical ridge dominates the SW North Atlantic,
    allowing for light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas
    across much of the area, west of 55W. Moderate easterly winds are
    noted off northern Hispaniola and western Cuba. A surface trough
    along 49.5W in the central Atlantic is producing numerous showers
    and isolated thunderstorms north of 25N and between 44.5W and
    51W. Gusty winds and higher seas are likely occurring near these
    storms. Another surface trough is supporting scattered showers
    and isolated thunderstorms north of 26N between 57W and 59.5W.
    Elsewhere, an expansive ridge persists in the central and eastern
    Atlantic, supporting moderate or weaker seas and moderate seas
    across the area.

    For the forecast west of 55W, a broad subtropical ridge dominates
    much of the basin, forcing fresh easterly winds off Hispaniola
    and in the Windward Passage. On Tue, strong high pressure building
    southward through the eastern United States will bring a cold
    front into the NW waters, increasing NE winds to fresh to locally
    strong and causing seas to build to rough N of the Bahamas and W
    of 70W through Thu. Conditions will improve Thu night into Fri.
    During the middle to later portion of the week, a trough of low
    pressure is forecast to move west-northwestward into the NE
    portion of the waters, bringing thunderstorms.

    $$
    KRV
Active Tropical Systems
  • Wed, 16 Sep 2026 05:51:49 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
    No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 14 Sep 2026 18:06:25 GMT
  • Mon, 14 Sep 2026 17:51:49 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 141751
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    200 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

    Central Subtropical Atlantic:
    A trough of low pressure located about 1000 miles east-southeast
    of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and
    thunderstorms. Environmental conditions over the system are
    forecast to become more conducive for development by the middle of
    this week. A tropical depression could form late this week as the
    system moves slowly off to the west-northwest over the subtropical
    Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Chenard/Blake
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
  • Mon, 14 Sep 2026 13:38:43 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
    000
    NOUS42 KNHC 141328
    REPRPD
    WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
    CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
    0930 AM EDT MON 14 SEPTEMBER 2026
    SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
    VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2026
    TCPOD NUMBER.....26-106

    I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    $$
    SEF

    NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
  • Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf
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