2026 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

000
WTNT44 KNHC 070255
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092026
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026
 
The convective organization of the depression has not changed much 
since the prior advisory. Much of the associated deep convection is 
displaced slightly to the north of the estimated surface center, but 
recently a new convective burst has emerged closer to this location. 
The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for now, consistent with the 
latest T2.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB. An ASCAT-C pass is 
expected to arrive shortly after this advisory issuance and will be 
helpful in reassessing the position and intensity of the system.

The depression is moving slowly eastward (080/4 kt) within weak 
steering currents to the south of an upper trough over the 
southeastern United States. The track models are in good agreement 
that the system should move eastward to east-northeastward through 
Thursday while passing to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. While 
the center is forecast to remain well offshore, its passage will 
likely produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall for portions of the 
Yucatan Peninsula. A turn toward the northeast and north is 
predicted by Friday as the system moves within the flow between a 
shortwave trough over Texas and a strengthening ridge over the 
western Atlantic. There remains significant along- and cross-track 
spread in the track guidance regarding this northward turn, with the 
AI-based models on the right side of the envelope and generally 
faster than the physics-based guidance. The updated NHC forecast is 
slower than the previous one from 48-96 h to bring it closer to the 
latest corrected consensus (HCCA), but remains on the fast and right 
side of the latest models. Users should closely monitor forecast 
updates given the below-average confidence in this forecast.

High oceanic heat content, moist mid-levels, and upper-level 
divergence should allow the compact system to intensify during the 
next few days. The only limiting factor appears to be southwesterly 
vertical wind shear, which is forecast to strengthen later this week 
as the system approaches the northern Gulf Coast. Most skillful 
models show the system becoming a hurricane over the central Gulf, 
and the latest forecast shows a similar rate of intensification and 
peak intensity as the prior forecast, generally following the more 
aggressive Google DeepMind and HCCA aids. Due to strong shear, it is 
likely that the system peaks in strength before reaching the coast 
as a hurricane. The cyclone is also expected to grow in size as it 
approaches the northern Gulf Coast, and the anticipated convective 
and motion asymmetries will likely cause rain and wind impacts to 
extend far from the center on the eastern side of the storm.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. There is an increasing risk of dangerous wind and storm surge
impacts along portions of the northern Gulf Coast, and watches could
be required on Wednesday. Residents from Louisiana to the Florida
Panhandle should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
 
2. The system will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. 
Gulf coast Friday into the weekend. Flash and urban flooding, along 
with isolated river flooding, will be possible.
 
3. Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico: The depression is expected to
strengthen and could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to
the western portion of the Yucatan Peninsula in a couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 22.1N  95.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 22.2N  94.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 22.5N  92.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 23.2N  91.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 24.3N  89.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  09/1200Z 26.1N  88.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 28.8N  88.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 34.1N  88.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  12/0000Z 39.0N  86.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

552 
FONT14 KNHC 070254
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092026               
0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   6(16)   X(16)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFAM 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   5(16)   X(16)
GFAM 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  13(27)   X(27)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  13(23)   X(23)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
DOTHAN AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  20(29)   X(29)
WHITING FLD FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)
WHITING FLD FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  21(33)   X(33)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)
PENSACOLA FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFAM 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  46(46)  11(57)   X(57)
GFAM 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   8(26)   1(27)
GFAM 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)   X(12)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  27(39)   1(40)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   X(14)
MOBILE AL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  24(36)   1(37)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   1(13)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  19(29)   1(30)
STENNIS MS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   1(11)
STENNIS MS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)  11(32)   X(32)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   7(14)   1(15)
BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFAM 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  55(56)   3(59)   X(59)
GFAM 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  31(31)   3(34)   1(35)
GFAM 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   2(18)   X(18)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   1(14)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  12(21)   1(22)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
HOUMA LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   7(15)   1(16)
HOUMA LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFAM 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   1(17)   1(18)
GFAM 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
GFAM 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFAM 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART