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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sun, 13 Sep 2026 21:05:27 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 132105
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W, south of 17N,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is found from 12N to 16N between 43W and 47W.
Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49.5W, south of
18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers are found
near this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues
southwestward to 08N36W to 10N51W. The ITCZ extends from 10N51W
to near 12N61W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed from 04N to 11N between Africa and 44W. Similar
convection is noted near the Lesser Antilles from 11N to 17N
between 54W and 66W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted on satellite imagery
over the SE Gulf toward Tampa Bay, Florida southward to the
Florida Keys with a surface trough over the interior peninsula.
Isolated to widely scattered showers are also found from 24N to
28N between 87W and 97W due to moist SW flow. Otherwise, a 1018 mb
high is at the surface, analyzed near 28N87W. A weak pressure
pattern prevails over the basin with light to gentle anticyclonic
flow over the NE half of the basin along with 1-2 ft seas, and
moderate SE flow over the SW half of the basin along with 2-4 ft
seas.
For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf
will continue to support relatively tranquil conditions to most of
the waters into Tue. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche,
where a diurnal trough will move westward offshore the Yucatan
Peninsula each evening, bringing nightly pulses of fresh NE winds.
Starting late Tue, stronger high pressure building southward from
the eastern United States will lead to increasing NE to E winds
over the basin, with speeds reaching fresh to strong and rough
seas over the northern Gulf Wed through Thu night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Other than the convection mentioned above, scattered moderate to
strong convection is in the SW Caribbean south of 12N near the
monsoon trough extending from the NE Pacific Ocean. A tight
pressure gradient is between the subtropical ridge north of the
islands and lower pressures in Colombia which continues to sustain
strong to near gale-force NE-E winds over much of the central
Caribbean. Rough seas are occurring in these waters. Fresh to
strong NE-E winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the Windward
Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas are evident elsewhere south of 18N,
including the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin.
For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a subtropical
ridge north of the islands and lower pressures associated with
the Colombian Low will continue to support strong to near-gale
easterly trade winds and rough seas over the central Caribbean for
the next several days. Strong winds are expected tonight in the
Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly breezes
are expected over the next few days in the eastern Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Of note, Meteo-France has issued a gale warning for the ongoing
easterly gap wind event over the Straits of Gibraltar. This
warning will continue through 14/06Z.
A weak surface trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from
29N47W to 20N43W with isolated to scattered moderate convection
within 180 nm mainly east of the trough. Otherwise, 1019 mb high
pressure is analyzed at 27N69W with only isolated convection found
across the remainder of the basin aside from the tropical waves
and monsoon trough/ITCZ discussed above. A rather weak pressure
gradient dominates the tropical Atlantic with moderate or weaker
winds across the waters, except moderate to fresh in the NE
waters, and fresh winds from northern Hispaniola to the Windward
Passage. Seas of 3-4 ft dominate the waters north of 10N and west
of 55W across the offshore waters zones, and 4-locally 6 ft
elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, trades north of Hispaniola into the
Windward Passage will be fresh into Mon. On Tue, strong high
pressure building southward through the eastern United States will
bring a cold front into the NW waters, increasing NE winds to
fresh to locally strong and causing seas to build to rough N of
the Bahamas and W of 70W through Wed night. During the middle to
later portion of the week, a trough of low pressure is forecast to
move west- northwestward into the NE portion of the waters,
bringing thunderstorms.
$$
Lewitsky
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sun, 13 Sep 2026 21:05:27 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 132105
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W, south of 17N,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is found from 12N to 16N between 43W and 47W.
Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49.5W, south of
18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers are found
near this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues
southwestward to 08N36W to 10N51W. The ITCZ extends from 10N51W
to near 12N61W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed from 04N to 11N between Africa and 44W. Similar
convection is noted near the Lesser Antilles from 11N to 17N
between 54W and 66W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted on satellite imagery
over the SE Gulf toward Tampa Bay, Florida southward to the
Florida Keys with a surface trough over the interior peninsula.
Isolated to widely scattered showers are also found from 24N to
28N between 87W and 97W due to moist SW flow. Otherwise, a 1018 mb
high is at the surface, analyzed near 28N87W. A weak pressure
pattern prevails over the basin with light to gentle anticyclonic
flow over the NE half of the basin along with 1-2 ft seas, and
moderate SE flow over the SW half of the basin along with 2-4 ft
seas.
For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf
will continue to support relatively tranquil conditions to most of
the waters into Tue. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche,
where a diurnal trough will move westward offshore the Yucatan
Peninsula each evening, bringing nightly pulses of fresh NE winds.
Starting late Tue, stronger high pressure building southward from
the eastern United States will lead to increasing NE to E winds
over the basin, with speeds reaching fresh to strong and rough
seas over the northern Gulf Wed through Thu night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Other than the convection mentioned above, scattered moderate to
strong convection is in the SW Caribbean south of 12N near the
monsoon trough extending from the NE Pacific Ocean. A tight
pressure gradient is between the subtropical ridge north of the
islands and lower pressures in Colombia which continues to sustain
strong to near gale-force NE-E winds over much of the central
Caribbean. Rough seas are occurring in these waters. Fresh to
strong NE-E winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the Windward
Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas are evident elsewhere south of 18N,
including the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin.
For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a subtropical
ridge north of the islands and lower pressures associated with
the Colombian Low will continue to support strong to near-gale
easterly trade winds and rough seas over the central Caribbean for
the next several days. Strong winds are expected tonight in the
Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly breezes
are expected over the next few days in the eastern Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Of note, Meteo-France has issued a gale warning for the ongoing
easterly gap wind event over the Straits of Gibraltar. This
warning will continue through 14/06Z.
A weak surface trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from
29N47W to 20N43W with isolated to scattered moderate convection
within 180 nm mainly east of the trough. Otherwise, 1019 mb high
pressure is analyzed at 27N69W with only isolated convection found
across the remainder of the basin aside from the tropical waves
and monsoon trough/ITCZ discussed above. A rather weak pressure
gradient dominates the tropical Atlantic with moderate or weaker
winds across the waters, except moderate to fresh in the NE
waters, and fresh winds from northern Hispaniola to the Windward
Passage. Seas of 3-4 ft dominate the waters north of 10N and west
of 55W across the offshore waters zones, and 4-locally 6 ft
elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, trades north of Hispaniola into the
Windward Passage will be fresh into Mon. On Tue, strong high
pressure building southward through the eastern United States will
bring a cold front into the NW waters, increasing NE winds to
fresh to locally strong and causing seas to build to rough N of
the Bahamas and W of 70W through Wed night. During the middle to
later portion of the week, a trough of low pressure is forecast to
move west- northwestward into the NE portion of the waters,
bringing thunderstorms.
$$
Lewitsky
Active Tropical Systems
- Tue, 15 Sep 2026 11:25:59 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 14 Sep 2026 03:54:43 GMT - Sun, 13 Sep 2026 23:25:59 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
219
ABNT20 KNHC 132325
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located about 1300 miles
east-southeast of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Conditions are currently unfavorable for
development. However, the system is expected to move into a more
conducive environment for some gradual development by the middle to
latter portion of this week. The disturbance is forecast to move
slowly west-northwestward across the central part of the Subtropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sun, 13 Sep 2026 13:50:45 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 131350
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0950 AM EDT SUN 13 SEPTEMBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-105
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf