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2026 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models

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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2026 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 7 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Fri, 10 Jul 2026 10:58:13 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 101057
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1215 UTC Fri Jul 10 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1045 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central
    Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South
    America will support strong to near gale-force northeast to east
    trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of
    Venezuela into early next week. Winds are forecast to pulse to
    gale- force off the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela
    tonight and again Sat night. Seas are expected to peak to around
    14 ft off Colombia Sat night.

    Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website:
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from near 16N46W to
    03N51W. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated showers are
    seen within 120 nm west of the wave from 07N to 09N, and near
    its northern portion.

    A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W south of 19N
    moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is
    observed near the wave.

    Another central Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W south of 19N
    moving westward also at about 15 kt. Scattered showers and
    thunderstorms are near its northern portion from 17N to 19N
    and between 80W and 82W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 12N21W and
    west-southwestward to 10N29W, where it transitions to the ITCZ
    to 09N36W and to 08N47W. It resumes at 08N50W and to near the
    coast of Guyana at 07N57W. Dry air in place is keeping the
    tropics free of deep convective activity. Only a few showers are
    near the ITCZ between 32W and 35W and between 53W and 56W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A ridge axis extends from Atlantic high pressure westward across
    the basin along 28N. The related pressure gradient is generally
    allowing for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds south of
    26N, and light to gentle southeast to south winds north of 26N.
    Seas are of moderate state south of 26N, and of slight state north
    of 26N.

    Clusters of numerous to isolated strong convection are increasing
    over the SW Gulf and central Bay of Campeche. This activity is
    generally lifting north in response to an inverted mid-level
    trough that is over northeast Mexico near the Texas border.

    For the forecast, the ridge will change little through the next
    few days keeping similar marine conditions as are initially being
    observed. Winds become mostly light and variable starting Mon
    over the north-central and NE Gulf. Occasional fresh to strong
    northeast to east winds are expected offshore the Yucatan
    peninsula at night into next week.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
    gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia and in the Gulf
    of Venezuela tonight and on Sat night.

    The pressure gradient between a nearly stagnant high pressure
    over the central Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over
    northern South America continues to drive the trade throughout
    the basin. Overnight scatterometer satellite data passes show
    strong to near gale-force easterly trades across the majority
    of the central portion of the sea. Moderate seas are being
    produced by these trades. Fresh trades along with slight to
    moderate seas are in the Gulf of Honduras, also south of
    Cuba to near 20N and between 78W and 81W and across the
    eastern portion of the basin. Moderate or lighter winds along
    with slight to moderate seas are present elsewhere over the
    basin.

    Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted over some areas of
    the western portion of the basin as well between Cuba and Jamaica
    and the Windward Passage.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic
    high pressure and lower pressure over northern South America will
    support fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for
    the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force off Colombia,
    and in the Gulf of Venezuela, Fri night and Sat night. Trades
    over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh to occasionally
    strong speeds in the late afternoons and evenings through early
    next week. A pair of tropical waves will move across the basin
    through Sat.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A plume of Saharan dust and dry mid-latitude air cover much of
    the tropical Atlantic, suppressing the development of showers and
    thunderstorms.

    An expansive high pressure area, with its associated ridge axis
    near 27N is anchored by a 1022 mb high center near 27N59.5W The
    pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the
    deep tropics is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds south of
    about 24N and between 72W and 77W. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are over
    these waters as depicted by overnight altimeter data passes.
    Moderate to fresh westerly winds along with moderate seas are
    north of 29N and west of 50W. Fresh to locally strong easterly
    breezes and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 23N and east of 45W.
    Moderate to fresh northeast to east trades are present south of
    21N between 41W and the Lesser Antilles while fresh to strong
    northeast winds are seen from 19N to 27N east of 33W to the coast
    of Africa. Seas are 8 to 9 ft in east swell from 07N to 18N
    between 49N and the Lesser Antilles, 5 to 7 ft south of 23N east
    of 49W, except 6 to 8 ft in northeast swell from 19N to 27N east
    of 33W to the coast of Africa. Moderate or lighter winds and along
    with seas of 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere.

    A large upper-level low over the central Bahamas is attendant by
    scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the waters
    from 21N to 25N between 72W and 76W. The low will continue to
    track westward toward South Florida and the Keys through Sat. The
    shower and thunderstorm activity may produce strong gusty winds
    and frequent lightning.

    An expansive dense plume of Saharan dust along with dry mid-
    latitude air is suppressing the development of deep convective
    activity over the tropical Atlantic region.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure ridge near 28N
    will change little through the period. The weather pattern will
    generally support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, and light
    to gentle winds north of 23N, except north of 29N where moderate
    to fresh south to southwest winds will prevail through Sat night.
    Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas are expected at
    night north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the
    Windward Passage through early next week.

    $$
    Aguirre
Tropical Weather Discussion
  • Fri, 10 Jul 2026 10:58:13 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 101057
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1215 UTC Fri Jul 10 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1045 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central
    Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South
    America will support strong to near gale-force northeast to east
    trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of
    Venezuela into early next week. Winds are forecast to pulse to
    gale- force off the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela
    tonight and again Sat night. Seas are expected to peak to around
    14 ft off Colombia Sat night.

    Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website:
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from near 16N46W to
    03N51W. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated showers are
    seen within 120 nm west of the wave from 07N to 09N, and near
    its northern portion.

    A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W south of 19N
    moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is
    observed near the wave.

    Another central Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W south of 19N
    moving westward also at about 15 kt. Scattered showers and
    thunderstorms are near its northern portion from 17N to 19N
    and between 80W and 82W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 12N21W and
    west-southwestward to 10N29W, where it transitions to the ITCZ
    to 09N36W and to 08N47W. It resumes at 08N50W and to near the
    coast of Guyana at 07N57W. Dry air in place is keeping the
    tropics free of deep convective activity. Only a few showers are
    near the ITCZ between 32W and 35W and between 53W and 56W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A ridge axis extends from Atlantic high pressure westward across
    the basin along 28N. The related pressure gradient is generally
    allowing for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds south of
    26N, and light to gentle southeast to south winds north of 26N.
    Seas are of moderate state south of 26N, and of slight state north
    of 26N.

    Clusters of numerous to isolated strong convection are increasing
    over the SW Gulf and central Bay of Campeche. This activity is
    generally lifting north in response to an inverted mid-level
    trough that is over northeast Mexico near the Texas border.

    For the forecast, the ridge will change little through the next
    few days keeping similar marine conditions as are initially being
    observed. Winds become mostly light and variable starting Mon
    over the north-central and NE Gulf. Occasional fresh to strong
    northeast to east winds are expected offshore the Yucatan
    peninsula at night into next week.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
    gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia and in the Gulf
    of Venezuela tonight and on Sat night.

    The pressure gradient between a nearly stagnant high pressure
    over the central Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over
    northern South America continues to drive the trade throughout
    the basin. Overnight scatterometer satellite data passes show
    strong to near gale-force easterly trades across the majority
    of the central portion of the sea. Moderate seas are being
    produced by these trades. Fresh trades along with slight to
    moderate seas are in the Gulf of Honduras, also south of
    Cuba to near 20N and between 78W and 81W and across the
    eastern portion of the basin. Moderate or lighter winds along
    with slight to moderate seas are present elsewhere over the
    basin.

    Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted over some areas of
    the western portion of the basin as well between Cuba and Jamaica
    and the Windward Passage.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic
    high pressure and lower pressure over northern South America will
    support fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for
    the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force off Colombia,
    and in the Gulf of Venezuela, Fri night and Sat night. Trades
    over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh to occasionally
    strong speeds in the late afternoons and evenings through early
    next week. A pair of tropical waves will move across the basin
    through Sat.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A plume of Saharan dust and dry mid-latitude air cover much of
    the tropical Atlantic, suppressing the development of showers and
    thunderstorms.

    An expansive high pressure area, with its associated ridge axis
    near 27N is anchored by a 1022 mb high center near 27N59.5W The
    pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the
    deep tropics is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds south of
    about 24N and between 72W and 77W. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are over
    these waters as depicted by overnight altimeter data passes.
    Moderate to fresh westerly winds along with moderate seas are
    north of 29N and west of 50W. Fresh to locally strong easterly
    breezes and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 23N and east of 45W.
    Moderate to fresh northeast to east trades are present south of
    21N between 41W and the Lesser Antilles while fresh to strong
    northeast winds are seen from 19N to 27N east of 33W to the coast
    of Africa. Seas are 8 to 9 ft in east swell from 07N to 18N
    between 49N and the Lesser Antilles, 5 to 7 ft south of 23N east
    of 49W, except 6 to 8 ft in northeast swell from 19N to 27N east
    of 33W to the coast of Africa. Moderate or lighter winds and along
    with seas of 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere.

    A large upper-level low over the central Bahamas is attendant by
    scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the waters
    from 21N to 25N between 72W and 76W. The low will continue to
    track westward toward South Florida and the Keys through Sat. The
    shower and thunderstorm activity may produce strong gusty winds
    and frequent lightning.

    An expansive dense plume of Saharan dust along with dry mid-
    latitude air is suppressing the development of deep convective
    activity over the tropical Atlantic region.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure ridge near 28N
    will change little through the period. The weather pattern will
    generally support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, and light
    to gentle winds north of 23N, except north of 29N where moderate
    to fresh south to southwest winds will prevail through Sat night.
    Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas are expected at
    night north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the
    Windward Passage through early next week.

    $$
    Aguirre
Active Tropical Systems
  • Sat, 11 Jul 2026 17:07:56 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
    No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 10 Jul 2026 11:00:25 GMT
  • Fri, 10 Jul 2026 05:07:56 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 100507
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
  • Thu, 09 Jul 2026 13:40:45 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
    000
    NOUS42 KNHC 091340
    REPRPD
    WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
    CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
    0940 AM EDT THU 09 JULY 2026
    SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
    VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z JULY 2026
    TCPOD NUMBER.....26-039

    I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    $$
    WJM

    NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
  • Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf
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