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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2026 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Thu, 27 Aug 2026 22:11:04 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 272210 AAA
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0015 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026

    Updated for details on Tropical Storm Dolly

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1930 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Tropical Storm Dolly is centered near 13.7N 40.7W at 27/2100 UTC
    or 1240 nm E of the Leeward Islands, moving W at 21 kt.
    Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
    wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently
    around 12.5 ft (4.0 m). Numerous moderate isolated strong
    convection is noted within 240 nm in the SE semicircle and 90 nm in
    the NW semicircle. Dolly is moving toward the west and this motion
    is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast
    track, this system should be nearing the Leeward Islands this
    weekend. Little change in strength is likely during the next 48
    hours, and Dolly is forecast to degenerate into a tropical wave
    before it reaches the Leeward Islands. Heavy rain from Dolly could
    affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday, with rainfall
    moving into the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday
    and Monday. This heavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially
    in areas of higher terrain of the Leeward Islands. Please read the
    latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center t
    website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
    latest Dolly NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
    www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

    Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the
    subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will
    support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough to very
    rough seas through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-
    force tonight off Colombia. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS
    FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along has emerged off the
    coast of Africa and has been analyzed along 22W, south of 18N and
    approaching the Cabo Verde Islands while moving westward at about
    15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found from
    07N to 14N between 21W and 26W.

    A tropical wave is moving from the eastern to the central
    Caribbean now along 68W, south of 20N near the Mona Passage to
    portions of Venezuela, moving westward at around 20 kt. No
    significant convection is observed with this wave except over the
    Mona Passage and it may be helping to enhance diurnal convection
    over portions of Hispaniola.

    A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, south of 19N
    to across portions of eastern Honduras and central Nicaragua,
    moving quickly westward around 25 kt. No significant convection is
    noted with this wave but some isolated to scattered showers and
    thunderstorms are possible in the Gulf of Honduras area.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16.5 and extends
    southwestward to 10N32W. The ITCZ extends from southwest of Dolly
    at 08N46W to near the coast of NE Venezuela at 11N62W. Other than
    the convection described with Dolly and the tropical wave above,
    no significant convection is found with the monsoon trough and
    ITCZ.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A frontal trough is over the north-central and NE Gulf with
    scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters north of 26N
    and east of 94W. Otherwise, 1014 mb high pressure is centered in
    the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz, Mexico with light to gentle
    anticyclone winds dominating the basin, locally higher in any
    convection. Seas are mainly slight, except locally higher in any
    convection.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf
    waters through early next week, supporting moderate or weaker
    winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong
    with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to
    a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each
    night. A frontal boundary will meander near the northern Gulf
    waters during the next few days producing scattered showers and
    isolated thunderstorms. Mariners can expect gusty winds and higher
    seas associated with these storms.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
    Gale Warning in effect for the waters off Colombia.

    Other than scattered showers and thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean
    mainly south of 11N near the monsoon trough, no significant
    convection is noted over the basin. Fresh to strong trades are
    found from 10N to 17N with 7 to 11 ft seas. Moderate to fresh
    trades and moderate seas are elsewhere from 10N to 18N, with
    gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas, except slight in the
    lee of Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula offshore Mexico.

    For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the
    subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will
    support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas to
    locally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through the
    forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight off
    Colombia. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong in the
    Windward Passage at night. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.7N
    40.7W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained
    winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central
    pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly will move to 14.1N 43.9W Fri morning,
    14.7N 48.5W Fri afternoon, 15.6N 53.1W Sat morning, become post-
    tropical and move to 16.5N 57.3W Sat afternoon, 17.3N 61.5W Sun
    morning, and dissipate Sun afternoon.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
    the Tropical Storm Dolly.

    A surface trough located SE of Bermuda extends from 30N59W to
    22N69W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are found within 90 nm
    either side of the trough. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms
    are possible over the western Bahamas to the Florida Peninsula.
    The strongest winds away from Dolly are found offshore Africa,
    north of 18N and east of 20W where fresh to strong speeds are
    found. Moderate to fresh NE winds are found across the remainder
    of the waters north of 15N and east of 35W. Winds are moderate or
    weaker elsewhere under a relatively relaxed pressure gradient.
    Mainly slight seas are found west of 70W, and moderate elsewhere
    away from Dolly.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate
    the SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days supporting
    mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds
    will pulse to fresh to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at
    night. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.7N 40.7W at 5 PM EDT, and
    is moving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with
    gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly
    will move to 14.1N 43.9W Fri morning, 14.7N 48.5W Fri afternoon,
    15.6N 53.1W Sat morning, become post-tropical and move to 16.5N
    57.3W Sat afternoon, 17.3N 61.5W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun
    afternoon.

    $$
    Lewitsky
Tropical Weather Discussion
  • Thu, 27 Aug 2026 22:11:04 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 272210 AAA
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0015 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026

    Updated for details on Tropical Storm Dolly

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1930 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Tropical Storm Dolly is centered near 13.7N 40.7W at 27/2100 UTC
    or 1240 nm E of the Leeward Islands, moving W at 21 kt.
    Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
    wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently
    around 12.5 ft (4.0 m). Numerous moderate isolated strong
    convection is noted within 240 nm in the SE semicircle and 90 nm in
    the NW semicircle. Dolly is moving toward the west and this motion
    is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast
    track, this system should be nearing the Leeward Islands this
    weekend. Little change in strength is likely during the next 48
    hours, and Dolly is forecast to degenerate into a tropical wave
    before it reaches the Leeward Islands. Heavy rain from Dolly could
    affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday, with rainfall
    moving into the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday
    and Monday. This heavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially
    in areas of higher terrain of the Leeward Islands. Please read the
    latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center t
    website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
    latest Dolly NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
    www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

    Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the
    subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will
    support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough to very
    rough seas through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-
    force tonight off Colombia. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS
    FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along has emerged off the
    coast of Africa and has been analyzed along 22W, south of 18N and
    approaching the Cabo Verde Islands while moving westward at about
    15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found from
    07N to 14N between 21W and 26W.

    A tropical wave is moving from the eastern to the central
    Caribbean now along 68W, south of 20N near the Mona Passage to
    portions of Venezuela, moving westward at around 20 kt. No
    significant convection is observed with this wave except over the
    Mona Passage and it may be helping to enhance diurnal convection
    over portions of Hispaniola.

    A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, south of 19N
    to across portions of eastern Honduras and central Nicaragua,
    moving quickly westward around 25 kt. No significant convection is
    noted with this wave but some isolated to scattered showers and
    thunderstorms are possible in the Gulf of Honduras area.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16.5 and extends
    southwestward to 10N32W. The ITCZ extends from southwest of Dolly
    at 08N46W to near the coast of NE Venezuela at 11N62W. Other than
    the convection described with Dolly and the tropical wave above,
    no significant convection is found with the monsoon trough and
    ITCZ.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A frontal trough is over the north-central and NE Gulf with
    scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters north of 26N
    and east of 94W. Otherwise, 1014 mb high pressure is centered in
    the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz, Mexico with light to gentle
    anticyclone winds dominating the basin, locally higher in any
    convection. Seas are mainly slight, except locally higher in any
    convection.

    For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf
    waters through early next week, supporting moderate or weaker
    winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong
    with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to
    a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each
    night. A frontal boundary will meander near the northern Gulf
    waters during the next few days producing scattered showers and
    isolated thunderstorms. Mariners can expect gusty winds and higher
    seas associated with these storms.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
    Gale Warning in effect for the waters off Colombia.

    Other than scattered showers and thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean
    mainly south of 11N near the monsoon trough, no significant
    convection is noted over the basin. Fresh to strong trades are
    found from 10N to 17N with 7 to 11 ft seas. Moderate to fresh
    trades and moderate seas are elsewhere from 10N to 18N, with
    gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas, except slight in the
    lee of Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula offshore Mexico.

    For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the
    subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will
    support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas to
    locally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through the
    forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight off
    Colombia. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong in the
    Windward Passage at night. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.7N
    40.7W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained
    winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central
    pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly will move to 14.1N 43.9W Fri morning,
    14.7N 48.5W Fri afternoon, 15.6N 53.1W Sat morning, become post-
    tropical and move to 16.5N 57.3W Sat afternoon, 17.3N 61.5W Sun
    morning, and dissipate Sun afternoon.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
    the Tropical Storm Dolly.

    A surface trough located SE of Bermuda extends from 30N59W to
    22N69W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are found within 90 nm
    either side of the trough. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms
    are possible over the western Bahamas to the Florida Peninsula.
    The strongest winds away from Dolly are found offshore Africa,
    north of 18N and east of 20W where fresh to strong speeds are
    found. Moderate to fresh NE winds are found across the remainder
    of the waters north of 15N and east of 35W. Winds are moderate or
    weaker elsewhere under a relatively relaxed pressure gradient.
    Mainly slight seas are found west of 70W, and moderate elsewhere
    away from Dolly.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate
    the SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days supporting
    mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds
    will pulse to fresh to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at
    night. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.7N 40.7W at 5 PM EDT, and
    is moving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with
    gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly
    will move to 14.1N 43.9W Fri morning, 14.7N 48.5W Fri afternoon,
    15.6N 53.1W Sat morning, become post-tropical and move to 16.5N
    57.3W Sat afternoon, 17.3N 61.5W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun
    afternoon.

    $$
    Lewitsky
Active Tropical Systems
  • Thu, 27 Aug 2026 21:21:56 +0000: Tropical Storm Dolly Graphics - NHC Atlantic


    Tropical Storm Dolly 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2026 21:21:56 GMT
  • Thu, 27 Aug 2026 20:40:50 +0000: Tropical Storm Dolly Forecast Discussion Number 2 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 27 2026
    000
    WTNT44 KNHC 272040
    TCDAT4
     
    Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number   2
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042026
    500 PM AST Thu Aug 27 2026
    
    Dolly has been struggling to develop deep thunderstorm activity 
    near the center during the day, though a new convective burst has 
    recently gone up in the southern semicircle.  Overall the 
    environment appears rather dry, with most of the northern portion 
    of the circulation exposed.  Satellite Dvorak estimates suggest 
    little change in wind speed, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt 
    on this advisory.  
     
    The initial motion estimate continues at 275/21 kt.  Dolly 
    is forecast to move quickly westward for the next couple of days 
    under a strong ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic.  
    There aren't many guidance changes to report as the models are 
    tightly clustered on a path towards the Leeward Islands.  No 
    significant changes were made to the previous NHC forecast, 
    remaining on the faster and southward side of the guidance 
    envelope.  
     
    The environment around Dolly will likely become unfavorable for
    strengthening on Friday with increasing southwesterly shear due
    to a central Atlantic upper-level trough, fast forward motion and
    dry air aloft.  Until then, some modest intensification is
    possible, consistent with the model consensus.  Global and regional 
    models all show Dolly degenerating into a strong tropical wave on 
    Friday or Saturday before it reaches the Leeward Islands, and our 
    forecast shows this decay by the weekend.  The timing of the 
    transition was moved up slightly from the last advisory, otherwise 
    no other changes were made to the forecast.  Post-tropical 
    positions are provided at 48-60h given the risk of gusty winds and 
    heavy rainfall.
     
    KEY MESSAGES:
     
    1. Heavy rains from Dolly or its remnants could affect the Leeward 
    Islands late Saturday into Sunday with possible impacts in the 
    Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday.  This 
    heavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of 
    higher terrain of the Leeward Islands.
     
     
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
     
    INIT  27/2100Z 13.7N  40.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
     12H  28/0600Z 14.1N  43.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
     24H  28/1800Z 14.7N  48.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
     36H  29/0600Z 15.6N  53.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
     48H  29/1800Z 16.5N  57.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
     60H  30/0600Z 17.3N  61.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
     72H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
     
    $$
    Forecaster Blake
  • Thu, 27 Aug 2026 20:39:21 +0000: Tropical Storm Dolly Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2026
    120 
    FONT14 KNHC 272039
    PWSAT4
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2            
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042026               
    2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2026                                            
                                                                        
    AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
    LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
    WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
     
    GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER BLAKE
  • Thu, 27 Aug 2026 20:39:19 +0000: Tropical Storm Dolly Public Advisory Number 2 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 27 2026
    019 
    WTNT34 KNHC 272039
    TCPAT4
     
    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Dolly Advisory Number   2
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042026
    500 PM AST Thu Aug 27 2026
     
    ...DOLLY MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...
    ...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR...
     
     
    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...13.7N 40.7W
    ABOUT 1425 MI...2290 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
     
     
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
     
    Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
    Dolly.
     
     
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was
    located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 40.7 West. Dolly is
    moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this motion is
    expected to continue for the next couple of days.  On the forecast
    track, this system should be nearing the Leeward Islands this
    weekend.
     
    Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
    gusts. Little change in strength is likely during the next 48 
    hours, and Dolly is forecast to degenerate into a tropical wave 
    before it reaches the Leeward Islands.
     
    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
    from the center.
     
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
     
     
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Dolly can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.
     
    RAINFALL:  Heavy rain from Dolly could affect the Leeward Islands 
    late Saturday into Sunday, with rainfall moving into the Virgin 
    Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday.  This heavy 
    rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of higher 
    terrain of the Leeward Islands.
     
     
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
     
    $$
    Forecaster Blake
  • Thu, 27 Aug 2026 20:39:19 +0000: Summary for Tropical Storm Dolly (AT4/AL042026) - NHC Atlantic
    ...DOLLY MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... ...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 27 the center of Dolly was located near 13.7, -40.7 with movement W at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
  • Thu, 27 Aug 2026 14:55:23 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
    000
    NOUS42 KNHC 271455
    REPRPD
    WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
    CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
    1055 AM EDT THU 27 AUGUST 2026
    SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
    VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z AUGUST 2026
    TCPOD NUMBER.....26-088

    I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON TROPICAL
    STORM DOLLY AT 29/1730Z NEAR 16.3N 57.6W IF SYSTEM
    IS A THREAT.

    II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    $$
    WJM

    NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
  • Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf
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