2026 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

000
WTNT42 KNHC 262038
TCDAT2
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072026
800 PM CVT Sat Sep 26 2026

The bulk of the convective activity associated with Gonzalo has 
become even further separated from its center this afternoon. This 
increased separation is due to strong southwesterly vertical wind 
shear, diagnosed at nearly 50 kt this afternoon by UW-CIMSS. In 
addition, water vapor imagery shows very dry air infiltrating the 
low-level circulation, limiting convective redevelopment. Given that 
the nearest convection is now more than 100 n mi away from the 
center, lacks sufficient organization, and that these very 
unfavorable conditions are likely to persist, Gonzalo is being 
declared a post-tropical cyclone in this advisory. The maximum 
sustained winds remain 35 kt, assuming some higher winds exist in 
the convection displaced well northeast of the center. The 
post-tropical cyclone is still moving off to the north-northeast at 
045 degrees at 6 kt. Downshear convection may still attempt to tug 
the center more northward over the next 12-24 h. However, as this 
activity diminishes, a shallow low-level ridge should steer the 
remnant low more west-northwest during the early portion of next 
week before dissipation.

This is the final NHC advisory on Gonzalo. Additional information 
on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header 
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 19.3N  23.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  27/0600Z 20.1N  23.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  27/1800Z 20.8N  23.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/0600Z 21.3N  24.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1800Z 21.5N  24.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/0600Z 21.7N  25.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

000
WTNT41 KNHC 262038
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026
 
The convection around Fay has been mostly stripped away by the wind
shear and the dry air in the environment. The latest TAFB Dvorak
fix was T2.0/30 kt and the objective intensity estimate is in the
range of 29-39 kt. Given that there has been little change in the 
intensity estimates, the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt 
for this advisory.
 
The cyclone is now slowly moving towards the south, at 180/2 kt. Fay 
is expected to continue to move southward into the southern flank of 
the subtropical Atlantic high. By early next week, the depression 
should turn westward due to the large-scale easterly flow, but there 
is still some uncertainty in the timing of this turn. The current 
NHC forecast track is similar to the previous one with some small 
adjustments based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids.
 
The intensity forecast continues to have a high level of 
uncertainty as Fay is still over favorably warm sea-surface 
temperatures. However, vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air 
continue to hinder the depression and preventing a more organized 
structure from developing. Both the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS 
statistical analysis have mid-level relative humidity less than 40 
percent for the next several days. Convection is likely to continue 
to pulse up and down, but the current NHC intensity forecast 
follows the trend of the previous one showing little change in 
strength with only minor changes made. This forecast continues to 
maintain Fay as a tropical depression until it become post-tropical 
and dissipates by the middle of next week. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 29.8N  43.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 29.6N  43.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 28.9N  44.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 27.8N  44.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 26.5N  44.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  29/0600Z 25.0N  45.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 24.1N  47.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 23.4N  51.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven

000
FONT11 KNHC 262038
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062026               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 26 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN