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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sun, 18 Oct 2026 17:11:25 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
735
AXNT20 KNHC 181711
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Oct 18 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the
Florida Straits across the S Gulf to the Bay of Campeche.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring along and just ahead of
the front, with gusty and erratic winds and seas occurring in
areas of thunderstorms. Strong to gale-force N to NE winds and
very rough seas up to 20 ft follow the front, highest seas over
the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz. Fresh to strong NE winds with
frequent gusts to gale force will continue over the NE Gulf
through this afternoon. The front will slowly drift southeast of
the Gulf through Tue as it weakens. Gale-force winds will persist
over the SW Gulf through tonight. Very rough seas up to 20 ft will
persist in the Bay of Campeche through this afternoon, with rough
seas prevailing across central and southern portions of the basin
through Tue.
Atlantic Gale Warning: The cold front mentioned above currently
extends from 31N72W to the Florida Straits as it moves SE across
the western Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
along and just ahead of the front, with gusty and erratic winds
and seas occurring in areas of thunderstorms. North winds of 25 to
30 kt are behind the front, with frequent gusts to gale-force.
Very rough seas behind the front have built to near 20 ft, with
rough seas occurring along the FL coast and N of Grand Bahama. The
front will continue drifting southeastward, reaching from near
31N70W to western Cuba by Monday evening, and then will stall and
dissipate through midweek. Gale-force gusts are expected to
continue across the waters between 70-75W and N of 30N through
Monday morning. Very rough seas of up to 20 ft in N to NE swell
will expand across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas through
Monday morning as well, with rough seas expanding across all of
the waters N of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos through
Tuesday morning.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
06N17W. The ITCZ extends from near 06N17W to 04N29W to 11N45W,
where it is broken by a surface trough. The ITCZ then resumes from
11N49W to 11N57W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from
08N to 17N between 35W and 60W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are also occurring along the coasts of Sierra Leone
and Liberia.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
See Special Features section above for information on the Gale
Warnings and hazardous marine conditions across much of the Gulf.
Outside of the areas of gale-force winds, rough to very rough
seas, and convection, moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate
seas prevail in the NW Gulf, as well as the far SE Gulf near the
Yucatan Channel.
For the forecast, strong high pressure building over the lower
Mississippi Valley behind the front, will continue to support
fresh NE to E winds over the eastern half of the Gulf into mid-
week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level trough is interacting with abundant moisture and
the East Pacific monsoon trough in the far SW Caribbean,
supporting scattered moderate convection S of 17N and W of 75W.
Outside of convection, moderate to fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas
prevail in the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate or weaker
winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, a weaker pressure gradient across the region
due to the passage of a cold front across the Bahamas and the
southern Gulf of America will maintain moderate to fresh trades in
the south-central Caribbean through Thu and moderate or weaker
winds elsewhere. The cold front will likely reach western Cuba and
the Yucatan Channel Mon night into Tue where it will stall before
dissipating. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate to rough
seas will likely impact the Yucatan Channel and NW Cuba adjacent
waters through early Wed morning.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning and hazardous marine conditions for waters offshore
Florida and the Bahamas.
Multiple surface troughs in the central Atlantic are supporting
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 20N between 40W
and 55W. Recent scatterometer data confirm fresh to strong E winds
and 6-8 ft seas to the N of a surface trough, generally from 23N
to 30N between 35W and 45W. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds and
moderate seas are also ongoing N of 20N and E of 30W. The
remainder of the basin is seeing gentle to moderate or weaker
trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N72W to
the Straits of Florida followed by strong to near gale-force
northerly winds and rough to very rough seas. A low pressure is
forecast to develop along the frontal boundary N of area later
this morning bringing gale-force winds N of 30N between 70W and
75W through tonight. The front will reach from 31N71W to the
central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida by early Mon morning,
and from near 31N70W to western Cuba by early Mon night where it
will stall before dissipating into midweek. Marine conditions
associated with the front will affect mainly the waters W of 65W
through Tue, although seas will linger through much of the week.
$$
Adams
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sun, 18 Oct 2026 17:11:25 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
735
AXNT20 KNHC 181711
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Oct 18 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the
Florida Straits across the S Gulf to the Bay of Campeche.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring along and just ahead of
the front, with gusty and erratic winds and seas occurring in
areas of thunderstorms. Strong to gale-force N to NE winds and
very rough seas up to 20 ft follow the front, highest seas over
the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz. Fresh to strong NE winds with
frequent gusts to gale force will continue over the NE Gulf
through this afternoon. The front will slowly drift southeast of
the Gulf through Tue as it weakens. Gale-force winds will persist
over the SW Gulf through tonight. Very rough seas up to 20 ft will
persist in the Bay of Campeche through this afternoon, with rough
seas prevailing across central and southern portions of the basin
through Tue.
Atlantic Gale Warning: The cold front mentioned above currently
extends from 31N72W to the Florida Straits as it moves SE across
the western Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
along and just ahead of the front, with gusty and erratic winds
and seas occurring in areas of thunderstorms. North winds of 25 to
30 kt are behind the front, with frequent gusts to gale-force.
Very rough seas behind the front have built to near 20 ft, with
rough seas occurring along the FL coast and N of Grand Bahama. The
front will continue drifting southeastward, reaching from near
31N70W to western Cuba by Monday evening, and then will stall and
dissipate through midweek. Gale-force gusts are expected to
continue across the waters between 70-75W and N of 30N through
Monday morning. Very rough seas of up to 20 ft in N to NE swell
will expand across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas through
Monday morning as well, with rough seas expanding across all of
the waters N of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos through
Tuesday morning.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
06N17W. The ITCZ extends from near 06N17W to 04N29W to 11N45W,
where it is broken by a surface trough. The ITCZ then resumes from
11N49W to 11N57W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from
08N to 17N between 35W and 60W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are also occurring along the coasts of Sierra Leone
and Liberia.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
See Special Features section above for information on the Gale
Warnings and hazardous marine conditions across much of the Gulf.
Outside of the areas of gale-force winds, rough to very rough
seas, and convection, moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate
seas prevail in the NW Gulf, as well as the far SE Gulf near the
Yucatan Channel.
For the forecast, strong high pressure building over the lower
Mississippi Valley behind the front, will continue to support
fresh NE to E winds over the eastern half of the Gulf into mid-
week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level trough is interacting with abundant moisture and
the East Pacific monsoon trough in the far SW Caribbean,
supporting scattered moderate convection S of 17N and W of 75W.
Outside of convection, moderate to fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas
prevail in the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate or weaker
winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, a weaker pressure gradient across the region
due to the passage of a cold front across the Bahamas and the
southern Gulf of America will maintain moderate to fresh trades in
the south-central Caribbean through Thu and moderate or weaker
winds elsewhere. The cold front will likely reach western Cuba and
the Yucatan Channel Mon night into Tue where it will stall before
dissipating. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate to rough
seas will likely impact the Yucatan Channel and NW Cuba adjacent
waters through early Wed morning.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning and hazardous marine conditions for waters offshore
Florida and the Bahamas.
Multiple surface troughs in the central Atlantic are supporting
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 20N between 40W
and 55W. Recent scatterometer data confirm fresh to strong E winds
and 6-8 ft seas to the N of a surface trough, generally from 23N
to 30N between 35W and 45W. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds and
moderate seas are also ongoing N of 20N and E of 30W. The
remainder of the basin is seeing gentle to moderate or weaker
trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N72W to
the Straits of Florida followed by strong to near gale-force
northerly winds and rough to very rough seas. A low pressure is
forecast to develop along the frontal boundary N of area later
this morning bringing gale-force winds N of 30N between 70W and
75W through tonight. The front will reach from 31N71W to the
central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida by early Mon morning,
and from near 31N70W to western Cuba by early Mon night where it
will stall before dissipating into midweek. Marine conditions
associated with the front will affect mainly the waters W of 65W
through Tue, although seas will linger through much of the week.
$$
Adams
Active Tropical Systems
- Tue, 20 Oct 2026 05:28:25 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 18 Oct 2026 18:11:28 GMT - Sun, 18 Oct 2026 17:28:25 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
508
ABNT20 KNHC 181728
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Off the East Coast of the United States:
A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is expected to form
later today or tonight off the southeast coast of the United States.
This low is likely to move slowly and erratically through the middle
of this week, and some subtropical development is possible during
that time. Regardless of development, this system will cause high
winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf along portions of the
U.S. East Coast. Please consult statements and warnings from local
National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center
for more information, along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm
Warnings issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Beven
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sun, 18 Oct 2026 14:10:56 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 181410
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1010 AM EDT SUN 18 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-140
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR
36.0N 71.0W FOR 20/1800Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf