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2026 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models

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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2026 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Fri, 14 Aug 2026 10:55:39 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 141055
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1215 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1050 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: Today, the pressure gradient will tighten
    between subtropical high pressure across the western Atlantic
    along 27N and the Colombian low. This will accelerate winds in
    the south-central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale-force off
    Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela on tonight. Very rough seas
    to 13 ft will build near and downwind of these gales in the
    southwest Caribbean tonight and Sat night. Please see the latest
    NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
    website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
    details.

    Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
    Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
    about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles or near 50W have
    continued to become less organized. This system is moving into a
    region of increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and the
    possibility of development is decreasing. Regardless of
    development, interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to
    monitor the progress of this system since gusty winds and areas of
    heavy rain are possible across these islands Friday night and
    Saturday. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development
    in the next 48 hours.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W, from 06N to 20N, moving
    west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N
    to 13N between 33W and 41W. Environmental conditions are forecast
    to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
    depression could form late this week or this weekend while the
    wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and
    central tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical
    development of this system in the next 48 hours, and a medium
    chance for development in the next 7 days.

    Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a tropical
    wave with axis near 50W.

    The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 74W, moving
    westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Most of the convection associated
    with the wave has dissipated.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends
    southwestward to 11N30W to 11N50W to 09N56W. Aside from
    convection noted in the tropical waves and SPECIAL FEATURES
    section above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
    is from 07N to 16N between 13W and 25W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by
    a 1019 mb high near 27N85W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
    prevail across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center.
    Moderate to fresh E to SE winds associated with a surface trough
    are ongoing over the SW Gulf waters along with moderate seas to 6
    ft. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere.

    For the forecast, surface ridging will change little through Sat
    before weakening Sun and Mon. This pattern will produce mostly
    gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of
    fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and
    into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a surface
    trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW
    Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast
    period.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning
    in effect for the south-central basin effective tonight.

    The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and
    the Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force winds
    over the central Caribbean waters. Moderate to rough seas are
    ongoing over these waters. Fresh to strong trade winds and
    moderate seas are over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate
    winds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail over the remaining
    waters.

    For the forecast, a tropical wave along 74W combined with the
    Bermuda High north of the region will enhance the trades over the
    central Caribbean through Sat. Peak winds should reach gale-force
    just north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and
    Sat night. A second tropical wave along 50W, Invest AL92, should
    start impacting the Leeward Islands this evening. Strong to near
    gale-force winds along with areas of heavy rain are expected
    tonight and Sat. These weather conditions will shift westward
    toward the central Caribbean and the Greater Antilles, including
    the Windward Passage from Sat night through Mon. Afterwards, the
    tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W Caribbean. Note
    that if Invest AL92 forms into a tropical cyclone, the winds and
    waves expected may be higher than indicated here.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92
    located over the central tropical Atlantic.

    Surface ridging associated with the Azores High dominates the
    entire subtropical Atlantic waters supporting moderate to fresh E
    to SE winds S of 25N W of 30W along with moderate seas. N of 25N,
    winds are moderate or weaker and seas slight to moderate.
    Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are occurring near the Canary
    Islands SE toward the coast of Africa.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge combined with
    two tropical waves passing through the Caribbean Sea will cause
    fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun night.
    Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate for the
    next few days. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will slowly push
    across our northern border east of 70W Sun, causing a wind shift
    to northeast but with little change in wind speeds on Sun and Mon
    north of 28N. The front will stall late on Monday before
    dissipating by midweek.

    $$
    Ramos
Tropical Weather Discussion
  • Fri, 14 Aug 2026 10:55:39 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 141055
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1215 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1050 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: Today, the pressure gradient will tighten
    between subtropical high pressure across the western Atlantic
    along 27N and the Colombian low. This will accelerate winds in
    the south-central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale-force off
    Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela on tonight. Very rough seas
    to 13 ft will build near and downwind of these gales in the
    southwest Caribbean tonight and Sat night. Please see the latest
    NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
    website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
    details.

    Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
    Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
    about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles or near 50W have
    continued to become less organized. This system is moving into a
    region of increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and the
    possibility of development is decreasing. Regardless of
    development, interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to
    monitor the progress of this system since gusty winds and areas of
    heavy rain are possible across these islands Friday night and
    Saturday. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development
    in the next 48 hours.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W, from 06N to 20N, moving
    west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N
    to 13N between 33W and 41W. Environmental conditions are forecast
    to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
    depression could form late this week or this weekend while the
    wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and
    central tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical
    development of this system in the next 48 hours, and a medium
    chance for development in the next 7 days.

    Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a tropical
    wave with axis near 50W.

    The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 74W, moving
    westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Most of the convection associated
    with the wave has dissipated.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends
    southwestward to 11N30W to 11N50W to 09N56W. Aside from
    convection noted in the tropical waves and SPECIAL FEATURES
    section above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
    is from 07N to 16N between 13W and 25W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by
    a 1019 mb high near 27N85W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
    prevail across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center.
    Moderate to fresh E to SE winds associated with a surface trough
    are ongoing over the SW Gulf waters along with moderate seas to 6
    ft. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere.

    For the forecast, surface ridging will change little through Sat
    before weakening Sun and Mon. This pattern will produce mostly
    gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of
    fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and
    into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a surface
    trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW
    Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast
    period.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning
    in effect for the south-central basin effective tonight.

    The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and
    the Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force winds
    over the central Caribbean waters. Moderate to rough seas are
    ongoing over these waters. Fresh to strong trade winds and
    moderate seas are over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate
    winds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail over the remaining
    waters.

    For the forecast, a tropical wave along 74W combined with the
    Bermuda High north of the region will enhance the trades over the
    central Caribbean through Sat. Peak winds should reach gale-force
    just north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and
    Sat night. A second tropical wave along 50W, Invest AL92, should
    start impacting the Leeward Islands this evening. Strong to near
    gale-force winds along with areas of heavy rain are expected
    tonight and Sat. These weather conditions will shift westward
    toward the central Caribbean and the Greater Antilles, including
    the Windward Passage from Sat night through Mon. Afterwards, the
    tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W Caribbean. Note
    that if Invest AL92 forms into a tropical cyclone, the winds and
    waves expected may be higher than indicated here.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92
    located over the central tropical Atlantic.

    Surface ridging associated with the Azores High dominates the
    entire subtropical Atlantic waters supporting moderate to fresh E
    to SE winds S of 25N W of 30W along with moderate seas. N of 25N,
    winds are moderate or weaker and seas slight to moderate.
    Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are occurring near the Canary
    Islands SE toward the coast of Africa.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge combined with
    two tropical waves passing through the Caribbean Sea will cause
    fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun night.
    Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate for the
    next few days. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will slowly push
    across our northern border east of 70W Sun, causing a wind shift
    to northeast but with little change in wind speeds on Sun and Mon
    north of 28N. The front will stall late on Monday before
    dissipating by midweek.

    $$
    Ramos
Active Tropical Systems
  • Sat, 15 Aug 2026 23:22:49 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
    No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 14 Aug 2026 12:50:17 GMT
  • Fri, 14 Aug 2026 11:22:49 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
    505
    ABNT20 KNHC 141122
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

    Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
    A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Windward Islands
    is producing gusty winds and a large area of showers and
    thunderstorms. This system is moving into a region of increasing
    upper-level winds and dry air, and the potential of development
    continues to decrease. Even though development is unlikely, gusty
    winds and areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the
    Lesser Antilles tonight and on Saturday.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

    Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
    A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic, located more
    than 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce
    disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
    forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a
    tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week while
    the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the central
    tropical Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi/Adams
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
  • Thu, 13 Aug 2026 18:04:41 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
    000
    NOUS42 KNHC 131804
    REPRPD
    WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
    CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
    0205 PM EDT THU 13 AUGUST 2026
    SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
    VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z AUGUST 2026
    TCPOD NUMBER.....26-074 AMENDMENT

    I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM LALA
    FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 79 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
    A. 14/1730Z,2330Z A. 15/0000Z
    B. AFXXX 0701C LALA B. NOAA9 0801C LALA
    C. 14/1600Z C. 14/2000Z
    D. 17.0N 150.5W D. NA
    E. 14/1700Z TO 13/2330Z E. NA
    F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
    G. FIX G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE
    H. WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION

    FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 77
    A. 15/0000Z A. 15/0530Z,1130Z
    B. NOAA2 0901C LALA B. AFXXX 1001C LALA
    C. 14/2000Z C. 15/0415Z
    D. 17.4N 151.7W D. 17.7N 153.0W
    E. 14/2200Z TO 15/0230Z E. 14/0500Z TO 14/1130Z
    F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
    G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR G. FIX
    H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
    A. CONTINUE 6-HOURLY FIX MISSIONS INTO TROPICAL STORM LALA IF
    SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
    B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO TROPICAL
    STORM LALA FOR 16/0000Z, DEPARTING PHJR AT 15/2000Z.

    3. REMARK: DURING THE NOAA 42 MISSION TASKED FOR THE 15/0000Z
    SYNOPTIC TIME, FOUR SMALL UAS ARE PLANNED FOR RELEASE WITHIN
    THE WRA. THEY WILL OPERATE AT OR BELOW 5,000 FT FOR ABOUT
    1 TO 1.5 HOURS. (AMENDED)

    $$
    KAL

    NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
  • Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf
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