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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2026 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Sat, 26 Sep 2026 05:00:56 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    751
    AXNT20 KNHC 260500
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Sat Sep 26 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0400 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.9N 43.4W at 26/0300 UTC or
    about 1755 KM or 950 NM W-SW of the Azores, moving W-SW at 6 kt.
    Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
    wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas to 18 ft are
    occurring within 60 NM nm across the N semicircle. Scattered
    moderate convection is noted from 29N to 30.5N between 42W and
    43.5W. A gradual turn toward the S-SW is expected over the next
    few days. Fay is expected to maintain it current strength
    overnight then a slow weakening trend will begin through the
    weekend, before the surface circulation opens up into a trough by
    Tue.

    Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 16.9N 22.5W at 26/0300
    UTC or about 50 KM or 30 nm E-NE of Sal, Cabo Verde, moving N at
    8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum
    sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are
    near 19 ft within 210 nm NE of center. Numerous strong convection
    is noted from 17N to 21N between 17W and 22W. A general northward
    motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, with a
    slower forward speed this weekend. On the forecast track, the
    center will past across the northeastern portions of the Cabo
    Verde Islands tonight and move north of the islands on Sat.
    Gradual weakening is expected tonight through Sat as southerly
    vertical wind shear continues to impact the storm through the
    weekend. Gonzalo is expected to lose convection and become post
    tropical by Sat night. Swells generated by the storm are expected
    to affect the Cabo Verde Islands through Saturday. These swells
    are likely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening
    rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
    weather office.

    Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
    Hurricane Center at website -
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay
    and Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at
    www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

    Very Large NE Swell: A cold front extends from near 31N71W
    through the north-central Bahamas and to the NW coast of Cuba.
    Deepening low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S.
    has produce gale to storm force N to NE winds pointing toward
    Florida and the SE U.S. coast, and generating large swell. This
    swell is propagating into the area behind the cold front,
    producing seas of 8 to 13 ft generally to the N of 26W and W of
    70W. The highest seas of 12 to 13 ft are occurring in the
    Gulfstream offshore of northern Florida, N of 29N. Buoy 41010 at
    28.9N 78.5W 120 NM east of Cape Canaveral is showing 10 ft seas as
    of 0300 UTC. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas
    will follow the front through Sat morning, before starting to
    subside through Sun morning.

    Heavy Rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico: A deep-
    layer trough extending from the Yucatan Channel southwestward
    across southern Mexico, combined with abundant low- level
    moisture, is leading to heavy rainfall across portions of the
    Central America from Costa Rica to Guatemala, and portions of
    Chiapas and Campeche, Mexico. Rainfall amounts in this region
    will create the potential for life-threatening flash flooding and
    landslides through Sat, before the upper level system responsible
    for the rainfall shifts into the eastern Pacific. Please refer to
    local weather services as well as the International Desk at the
    Weather Prediction Center at
    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/international/intl2.sthml for more
    information.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is analyzed along 60W, from 06N to 17N, moving
    west near 15 kt. The wave is being sheared by an upper-level low
    center across the NE Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is
    noted from 10.5N to 19.5N between 58W and 65W.

    A western Caribbean tropical wave axis is along 79W, S of 15N,
    extending across Panama, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
    moderate isolated strong convection is ahead of the wave, S of
    13.5N W of 81.5W and inland across Central America.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from just S-SW of Gonzalo near 15N23W
    to 11N27W to 08.5N37W. The ITCZ extends from 08N39W to 11.5N55W to
    10.5N60W. Aside from convection associated with Gonzalo and the
    tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
    noted from 08N to 13N between 20W and 29W, from 05N to 07.5N
    between 32W and 44W. and from 10N to 13N between 47.5W and 56W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A weak cold front has continued to move southward across the
    eastern Gulf and Florida, and now extends from the NW coast of
    Cuba near La Habana to 24N90W, then becomes stationary and
    continues NW to the central Texas coast in the area of Victoria.
    Widely scattered clusters of moderate convection are found within
    120 nm S of the front between western Cuba and 96W. Moderate N-NE
    to E-NE winds are N of this boundary E of 90W, while moderate E
    winds are also within 75 nm N of the front between 90W and 96W.
    Gentle E to NE winds are occurring to the south of the front. Seas
    N of the front are generally 3 to 5 ft, and 2 to 3 ft to the south.

    For the forecast, the weak cold front will begin to stall across
    eastern portions of the Gulf tonight and then dissipate into Sat.
    Moderate to locally NE to E fresh winds will follow the front
    tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through
    Sat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into early next week
    as weak high pressure settle across the NE Gulf.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    See the Special Features section above for information on heavy
    rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico
    expected tonight into Sat.

    A weaker than usual pressure gradient across the nearby Atlantic
    and Caribbean basin is translating to gentle to moderate trades
    over most of the basin, with the exception of fresh east winds
    offshore western Venezuela and NE Colombia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in
    the south-central Caribbean, 2 ft or less in the NW, and 2 to 4
    ft elsewhere. A middle to upper-level low center is over the NE
    Caribbean and promoting sinking air and stable conditions across
    much of central portions. Scattered moderate convection across
    across most of the Gulf of Honduras to 19N. and across the waters
    between Jamaica and eastern Cuba.

    For the forecast, the continued weak pressure gradient across the
    region will support moderate to fresh trades over the south-
    central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Slight
    to moderate seas will be over the NW Caribbean with moderate seas
    elsewhere. Active showers and thunderstorms over NW portions
    tonight will gradually shift eastward to the central Caribbean
    through Mon.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    See Special Features section above for information on Tropical
    Storms Fay and Gonzalo, and on significant swell propagating
    southward into waters offshore Florida and NE of the Bahamas to
    68W.

    A vigorous upper-level trough along the eastern seaboard of the
    U.S. supports the deep low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast,
    and a cold front across the western Atlantic waters from 31N71W to
    the north-central Bahamas to the NW coast of Cuba. Scattered to
    locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring
    SE of the front to the Greater Antilles W of 70W and E of the
    front to 66.5W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring N of 26N
    and ahead of the front to 64W, where seas are 5 to 9 ft in N
    swell. Behind the front, moderate to locally fresh N to N-NE winds
    prevail with recent satellite scatterometer data showing strongest
    winds along most of the Florida coastal waters. Seas are 8 to 13
    ft in mostly N to NE swell. To the east, as surface trough that
    extends from 28N58W to 23N61W is supported by a mid level low and
    is inducing numerous moderate convection from 23N to 28N between
    54W and 60W. E of this area, high pressure across the NE Atlantic
    drapes across Tropical Storm Fay. The weak pressure gradient to
    the south continues to yield a belt of moderate trades from 10N to
    20N W of 40W to the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 5 to 6 ft.
    Farther E, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail N of the
    monsoon trough to 24N between 25W and 40W, where seas are 5 to 89
    ft in NE swell from Gonzalo. Otherwise mainly gentle winds
    prevail.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
    drift SE and reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Sat night
    before starting to weaken. Scattered showers and isolated
    thunderstorms are expected along the frontal boundary. Fresh to
    strong winds and rough to very rough seas in large N to NE swell will
    follow the front through Sat morning, before subsiding through Sun
    morning.

    $$
    Stripling
Tropical Weather Discussion
  • Sat, 26 Sep 2026 05:00:56 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    751
    AXNT20 KNHC 260500
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Sat Sep 26 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0400 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.9N 43.4W at 26/0300 UTC or
    about 1755 KM or 950 NM W-SW of the Azores, moving W-SW at 6 kt.
    Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
    wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas to 18 ft are
    occurring within 60 NM nm across the N semicircle. Scattered
    moderate convection is noted from 29N to 30.5N between 42W and
    43.5W. A gradual turn toward the S-SW is expected over the next
    few days. Fay is expected to maintain it current strength
    overnight then a slow weakening trend will begin through the
    weekend, before the surface circulation opens up into a trough by
    Tue.

    Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 16.9N 22.5W at 26/0300
    UTC or about 50 KM or 30 nm E-NE of Sal, Cabo Verde, moving N at
    8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum
    sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are
    near 19 ft within 210 nm NE of center. Numerous strong convection
    is noted from 17N to 21N between 17W and 22W. A general northward
    motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, with a
    slower forward speed this weekend. On the forecast track, the
    center will past across the northeastern portions of the Cabo
    Verde Islands tonight and move north of the islands on Sat.
    Gradual weakening is expected tonight through Sat as southerly
    vertical wind shear continues to impact the storm through the
    weekend. Gonzalo is expected to lose convection and become post
    tropical by Sat night. Swells generated by the storm are expected
    to affect the Cabo Verde Islands through Saturday. These swells
    are likely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening
    rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
    weather office.

    Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
    Hurricane Center at website -
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay
    and Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at
    www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

    Very Large NE Swell: A cold front extends from near 31N71W
    through the north-central Bahamas and to the NW coast of Cuba.
    Deepening low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S.
    has produce gale to storm force N to NE winds pointing toward
    Florida and the SE U.S. coast, and generating large swell. This
    swell is propagating into the area behind the cold front,
    producing seas of 8 to 13 ft generally to the N of 26W and W of
    70W. The highest seas of 12 to 13 ft are occurring in the
    Gulfstream offshore of northern Florida, N of 29N. Buoy 41010 at
    28.9N 78.5W 120 NM east of Cape Canaveral is showing 10 ft seas as
    of 0300 UTC. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas
    will follow the front through Sat morning, before starting to
    subside through Sun morning.

    Heavy Rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico: A deep-
    layer trough extending from the Yucatan Channel southwestward
    across southern Mexico, combined with abundant low- level
    moisture, is leading to heavy rainfall across portions of the
    Central America from Costa Rica to Guatemala, and portions of
    Chiapas and Campeche, Mexico. Rainfall amounts in this region
    will create the potential for life-threatening flash flooding and
    landslides through Sat, before the upper level system responsible
    for the rainfall shifts into the eastern Pacific. Please refer to
    local weather services as well as the International Desk at the
    Weather Prediction Center at
    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/international/intl2.sthml for more
    information.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is analyzed along 60W, from 06N to 17N, moving
    west near 15 kt. The wave is being sheared by an upper-level low
    center across the NE Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is
    noted from 10.5N to 19.5N between 58W and 65W.

    A western Caribbean tropical wave axis is along 79W, S of 15N,
    extending across Panama, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
    moderate isolated strong convection is ahead of the wave, S of
    13.5N W of 81.5W and inland across Central America.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from just S-SW of Gonzalo near 15N23W
    to 11N27W to 08.5N37W. The ITCZ extends from 08N39W to 11.5N55W to
    10.5N60W. Aside from convection associated with Gonzalo and the
    tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
    noted from 08N to 13N between 20W and 29W, from 05N to 07.5N
    between 32W and 44W. and from 10N to 13N between 47.5W and 56W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A weak cold front has continued to move southward across the
    eastern Gulf and Florida, and now extends from the NW coast of
    Cuba near La Habana to 24N90W, then becomes stationary and
    continues NW to the central Texas coast in the area of Victoria.
    Widely scattered clusters of moderate convection are found within
    120 nm S of the front between western Cuba and 96W. Moderate N-NE
    to E-NE winds are N of this boundary E of 90W, while moderate E
    winds are also within 75 nm N of the front between 90W and 96W.
    Gentle E to NE winds are occurring to the south of the front. Seas
    N of the front are generally 3 to 5 ft, and 2 to 3 ft to the south.

    For the forecast, the weak cold front will begin to stall across
    eastern portions of the Gulf tonight and then dissipate into Sat.
    Moderate to locally NE to E fresh winds will follow the front
    tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through
    Sat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into early next week
    as weak high pressure settle across the NE Gulf.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    See the Special Features section above for information on heavy
    rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico
    expected tonight into Sat.

    A weaker than usual pressure gradient across the nearby Atlantic
    and Caribbean basin is translating to gentle to moderate trades
    over most of the basin, with the exception of fresh east winds
    offshore western Venezuela and NE Colombia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in
    the south-central Caribbean, 2 ft or less in the NW, and 2 to 4
    ft elsewhere. A middle to upper-level low center is over the NE
    Caribbean and promoting sinking air and stable conditions across
    much of central portions. Scattered moderate convection across
    across most of the Gulf of Honduras to 19N. and across the waters
    between Jamaica and eastern Cuba.

    For the forecast, the continued weak pressure gradient across the
    region will support moderate to fresh trades over the south-
    central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Slight
    to moderate seas will be over the NW Caribbean with moderate seas
    elsewhere. Active showers and thunderstorms over NW portions
    tonight will gradually shift eastward to the central Caribbean
    through Mon.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    See Special Features section above for information on Tropical
    Storms Fay and Gonzalo, and on significant swell propagating
    southward into waters offshore Florida and NE of the Bahamas to
    68W.

    A vigorous upper-level trough along the eastern seaboard of the
    U.S. supports the deep low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast,
    and a cold front across the western Atlantic waters from 31N71W to
    the north-central Bahamas to the NW coast of Cuba. Scattered to
    locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring
    SE of the front to the Greater Antilles W of 70W and E of the
    front to 66.5W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring N of 26N
    and ahead of the front to 64W, where seas are 5 to 9 ft in N
    swell. Behind the front, moderate to locally fresh N to N-NE winds
    prevail with recent satellite scatterometer data showing strongest
    winds along most of the Florida coastal waters. Seas are 8 to 13
    ft in mostly N to NE swell. To the east, as surface trough that
    extends from 28N58W to 23N61W is supported by a mid level low and
    is inducing numerous moderate convection from 23N to 28N between
    54W and 60W. E of this area, high pressure across the NE Atlantic
    drapes across Tropical Storm Fay. The weak pressure gradient to
    the south continues to yield a belt of moderate trades from 10N to
    20N W of 40W to the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 5 to 6 ft.
    Farther E, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail N of the
    monsoon trough to 24N between 25W and 40W, where seas are 5 to 89
    ft in NE swell from Gonzalo. Otherwise mainly gentle winds
    prevail.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
    drift SE and reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Sat night
    before starting to weaken. Scattered showers and isolated
    thunderstorms are expected along the frontal boundary. Fresh to
    strong winds and rough to very rough seas in large N to NE swell will
    follow the front through Sat morning, before subsiding through Sun
    morning.

    $$
    Stripling
Active Tropical Systems
  • Sat, 26 Sep 2026 05:23:20 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 260523
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

    Active Systems:
    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Gonzalo, located just east-northeast of the Cabo Verde
    Islands, and on Tropical Storm Fay, located well to the
    west-southwest of the Azores.

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Pierce/Evans/Berg
  • Sat, 26 Sep 2026 03:28:46 +0000: Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics - NHC Atlantic


    Tropical Storm Gonzalo 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Sep 2026 03:28:46 GMT
  • Sat, 26 Sep 2026 03:22:56 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Graphics - NHC Atlantic


    Tropical Storm Fay 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Sep 2026 03:22:55 GMT
  • Sat, 26 Sep 2026 02:59:48 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 24 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026
    938 
    WTNT41 KNHC 260259
    TCDAT1
     
    Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  24
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
    300 AM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026
     
    Fay's structure is falling apart once again. Satellite imagery shows 
    that most of the deep convection has disappeared over the past 
    several hours. Recent ASCAT data returned a maximum wind retrieval 
    of just 24 kt, but given the low bias of the ASCAT due to its 
    resolution, and the fact that all of the recent subjective and 
    objective satellite intensity estimates still support tropical storm 
    intensity, the initial intensity is set at a possibly generous 35 
    kt.
     
    The initial motion remains slow, at 260/3 kt. Steering winds are 
    expected to remain light as Fay sits within the Atlantic subtropical 
    high, with a turn to the south-southwest expected within the next 24 
    h as the storm meanders into the southern flank of the high. Track 
    forecast models are generally in good agreement for the first 48 h, 
    before exhibiting larger spread thereafter as Fay moves away from 
    the influence of the subtropical high. Skilled models suggest that 
    Fay could be picked up by the prevailing easterlies by early next 
    week, but the latest forecast calls for Fay to dissipate by then. 
     
    Fay has been difficult to forecast, as global models continue to 
    depict recurring cycles of diurnal convection, which have allowed 
    Fay to gain a second wind, so to speak, even as environmental 
    conditions become increasingly hostile. This is likely due to SSTs 
    remaining favorable for the storm, even as SHIPS guidance suggest 
    that mid-level moisture is lacking and vertical wind shear remains 
    moderate. Intensity guidance also depicts another re-strengthening 
    of Fay just beyond 48 h, likely due to vertical wind shear 
    relenting. The current thinking behind the forecast, however, is 
    that with Fay weak enough as it is, the current environment will 
    continue to degrade its structure and inhibit its ability to 
    restrengthen. As a result, the latest intensity forecast is 
    relatively conservative, holding Fay's strength somewhat steady as 
    it undergoes these cycles of nocturnal convection, before the storm 
    is expected to open up into a trough by Tuesday. 
    
     
     
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
     
    INIT  26/0300Z 29.9N  43.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
     12H  26/1200Z 30.0N  43.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
     24H  27/0000Z 29.9N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
     36H  27/1200Z 29.2N  43.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
     48H  28/0000Z 28.3N  44.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     60H  28/1200Z 27.2N  44.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     72H  29/0000Z 25.4N  44.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     96H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
     
    $$
    Forecaster Evans/Hagen
  • Sat, 26 Sep 2026 02:59:16 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 26 2026
    000
    FONT11 KNHC 260259
    PWSAT1
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24              
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062026               
    0300 UTC SAT SEP 26 2026                                            
                                                                        
    AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
    29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
    35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
  • Fri, 25 Sep 2026 18:55:11 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
    000
    NOUS42 KNHC 251855
    REPRPD
    WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
    CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
    0255 PM EDT FRI 25 SEPTEMBER 2026
    SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
    VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2026
    TCPOD NUMBER.....26-118 AMENDMENT

    I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS (NO CHANGES)
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE NOLO (NO CHANGES)
    FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 78 FLIGHT TWO - 79
    A. 26/1430Z,1730Z,2030Z A. 26/2330Z,27/0230Z,0530Z
    B. AFXXX 0515E NOLO B. AFXXX 0615E NOLO
    C. 26/1300Z C. 26/2215Z
    D. 17.1N 155.7W D. 17.1N 156.3W
    E. 26/1400Z TO 26/2030Z E. 26/2300Z TO 27/0530Z
    F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
    G. FIX G. FIX
    H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION

    FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 77
    A. 27/1130Z,1730Z
    B. AFXXX 0715E NOLO
    C. 27/1015Z
    D. 16.9N 157.8W
    E. 27/1100Z TO 27/1730Z
    F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
    G. FIX
    H. WRA ACTIVATION

    2. HURRICANE POLO
    FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43
    A. 27/0000Z
    B. NOAA3 0317E POLO
    C. 26/2000Z (CHANGED)
    D. 18.9N 112.7W
    E. 26/2130Z TO 27/0100Z
    F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
    G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR & FIX
    H. NO WRA ACTIVATION

    3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: (NO CHANGES)
    A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON NOLO IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
    B. NOAA 42 AND 43 P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR AND FIX MISSIONS INTO
    POLO FOR 27/1800Z AND 28/0600Z, DEPARTING KHRL AT 27/1300Z
    AND 28/0100Z.

    $$
    SEF

    NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
  • Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf
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