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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Mon, 05 Oct 2026 05:00:43 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 050500
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 55W, south of 20N, moving westward at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to
19N between 49W and 60W.
A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along
83W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers
and isolated thunderstorms are near the wave axis.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 07N40W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 11N53W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection
is observed from 07N to 15N and E of 35W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front is over the NW Gulf. A weak low pressure of
1010 mb is analyzed near 22N96W. A surface trough extends from the
low center to the Big Bend of FL. Fresh to locally strong W to NW
winds and moderate to locally rough seas are noted between the
trough axis and the coast of Mexico. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are associated with these features. Similar
convective activity is also noted over the NE Gulf. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is affecting the Yucatan Peninsula.
A ridge extending from the western Atlantic into Florida is
supporting moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and moderate
seas across much of the central and eastern Gulf.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a
trough along the E Mexican offshores through Tue. Weak surface
ridging over the NE Gulf will continue to shift E through late Tue
ahead of a slowly moving front, which will stall over the
northern Gulf Mon through Tue night. Fresh NE to E winds and
building seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, broad
low pressure may develop over the far southwest Gulf Wed night
into Thu. Although environmental conditions are expected to be
only marginally conducive, some slow development is possible and a
tropical depression could form late this week while the system
drifts northward through Fri. Regardless of development, moderate
to fresh winds and building seas are forecast over the western
Gulf during that period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper-level trough over the Windward Passage and Hispaniola is
helping to induce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over
these regions. High pressure north of the area, combined with the
Colombian Low is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade
winds across much of the Caribbean Sea with moderate seas. Locally
strong trades are seen offshore NW Colombia.
For the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and
central Caribbean through Tue morning, except offshore Colombia
and the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh winds will pulse to strong
speeds at night through Mon. Afterward, a cold front will move
across the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure
gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the
basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms is located N of
Puerto Rico, and is associated with an upper-level low. A surface
trough is analyzed over the central Atlantic, and extends from
31N32W to 28N38W to 29N44W. Scattered moderate convection is along
the trough axis. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is
dominated by high pressure producing mainly gentle to moderate
winds and moderate seas. Locally fresh NE winds are seen SW of the
Canary Islands.
For the forecast west of 55W, weak ridging over the western
Atlantic across Bermuda will continue to shift eastward through
Mon ahead of a cold front that will stall from Bermuda to NE
Florida by midweek. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will
follow the front, but remain off NE Florida through Wed. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through
Fri.
$$
Adams
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Mon, 05 Oct 2026 05:00:43 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 050500
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 55W, south of 20N, moving westward at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to
19N between 49W and 60W.
A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along
83W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers
and isolated thunderstorms are near the wave axis.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 07N40W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 11N53W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection
is observed from 07N to 15N and E of 35W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front is over the NW Gulf. A weak low pressure of
1010 mb is analyzed near 22N96W. A surface trough extends from the
low center to the Big Bend of FL. Fresh to locally strong W to NW
winds and moderate to locally rough seas are noted between the
trough axis and the coast of Mexico. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are associated with these features. Similar
convective activity is also noted over the NE Gulf. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is affecting the Yucatan Peninsula.
A ridge extending from the western Atlantic into Florida is
supporting moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and moderate
seas across much of the central and eastern Gulf.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a
trough along the E Mexican offshores through Tue. Weak surface
ridging over the NE Gulf will continue to shift E through late Tue
ahead of a slowly moving front, which will stall over the
northern Gulf Mon through Tue night. Fresh NE to E winds and
building seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, broad
low pressure may develop over the far southwest Gulf Wed night
into Thu. Although environmental conditions are expected to be
only marginally conducive, some slow development is possible and a
tropical depression could form late this week while the system
drifts northward through Fri. Regardless of development, moderate
to fresh winds and building seas are forecast over the western
Gulf during that period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper-level trough over the Windward Passage and Hispaniola is
helping to induce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over
these regions. High pressure north of the area, combined with the
Colombian Low is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade
winds across much of the Caribbean Sea with moderate seas. Locally
strong trades are seen offshore NW Colombia.
For the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and
central Caribbean through Tue morning, except offshore Colombia
and the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh winds will pulse to strong
speeds at night through Mon. Afterward, a cold front will move
across the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure
gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the
basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms is located N of
Puerto Rico, and is associated with an upper-level low. A surface
trough is analyzed over the central Atlantic, and extends from
31N32W to 28N38W to 29N44W. Scattered moderate convection is along
the trough axis. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is
dominated by high pressure producing mainly gentle to moderate
winds and moderate seas. Locally fresh NE winds are seen SW of the
Canary Islands.
For the forecast west of 55W, weak ridging over the western
Atlantic across Bermuda will continue to shift eastward through
Mon ahead of a cold front that will stall from Bermuda to NE
Florida by midweek. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will
follow the front, but remain off NE Florida through Wed. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through
Fri.
$$
Adams
Active Tropical Systems
- Tue, 06 Oct 2026 17:08:54 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 05 Oct 2026 08:00:11 GMT - Mon, 05 Oct 2026 05:08:54 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 050508
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Southwestern Gulf of America:
A surface trough of low pressure has developed along the coast of
Mexico in the southwestern Gulf of America. Although environmental
conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive, gradual
development of this system is possible and a tropical depression
could form by the second half of this week while it initially
drifts eastward before turning northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sun, 04 Oct 2026 13:48:15 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 041348
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0950 AM EDT SUN 04 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-126
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION INTO
DEVELOPING SYSTEM NEAR 20.7N 93.7W FOR 07/1800Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
KAL/IDP
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf