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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Mon, 19 Oct 2026 04:54:55 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 190454
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Oct 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front has stalled tonight
across the southern Gulf, from the Straits of Florida to near
22N90W to the central Bay of Campeche and into the coast of
Mexico near 93W. Satellite imagery suggests that the portion of
the front W of 90W has been drifting westward in recent hours.
1026 mb high pressure has moved into far NE Mexico, while 1035 mb
high pressure is across the NE U.S. extending a ridge southward
across the basin. The pressure gradient south of these highs is
forcing gale-force NW to N winds and very rough seas of 14-20 ft
across the SW waters of the Gulf, S of 21N between the front and
the Mexican coastline, while fresh to strong E-NE to NE winds and
seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail across most of the remainder of the
basin N of the front. The front will remain generally stationary
and weaken into Tue. Gale winds and very rough seas to 15 ft will
prevail in the SW basin through sunrise, then slowly diminish
through Tue night.
Atlantic Gale Warning: The aforementioned cold front is eastward
across the Atlantic waters N of 27N, and extends through 31N71.5W
to 27N73W then becomes nearly stationary through the NW Bahamas
and into the Straits of Florida. W of the cold front, N-NE to NE
winds of 20 to 30 kt prevail, with winds near gale-force and
frequent gusts to 40 kt N of 29N and W of 73W, where a Gale
Warning is in effect. Very rough seas of 12 to 16 ft prevail
across these waters. The front is associated with a deep low
pressure system across the western Atlantic currently near 32N71W.
The low is expected to lift northward overnight, which will slow
the forward progress of the front. Winds west of the front are
expected to gradually diminish later tonight, with gales ending by
morning.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends across western Africa to the coast of
Guiea-Bissau near 12N16W and extends about 60 nm to the southwest.
The ITCZ extends from 07N21W to 06N36W to 09.5N45W to the coast of
Guyana near 06.5N58W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is occurring from 09N to 16.5N between
35W and 52W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
See the Special Features section above for information on the Gale
Warning in effect for portions of the southwest basin. Outside
of the gales, recent satellite scatterometer data shows strong
E-NE winds 20-28 kt E of 92W, and fresh to strong NE to N winds W
of 92W and N of 21N. Seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail across most of
the basin N of the front, highest SW portions. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are within 60 nm either side of the front.
For the forecast, the front will meander about over the Straits
of Florida and to the NW Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche
tonight through Mon, then drift to the southeast of the Gulf
through Tue as it weakens. Gale-force winds will persist over the
SW Gulf offshore Veracruz through early Mon morning, while winds
and seas diminish modestly across the remainder of the basin.
High pressure behind the front will continue to support fresh NE
to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf through Tue.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A weakening upper-level trough across the NW Caribbean continues
to support scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong
convection across the Gulf of Honduras and the waters within 150
nm of the NE coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua, while moderate
convection is further south across the SW basin in association
with the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough.
Stable atmospheric conditions and fair skies prevail across most
of the basin elsewhere E of 72W. A weak pressure gradient across
the region is yielding only moderate to fresh trades and seas of
4-6 ft seas across the central Caribbean S of 16N between 64W and
78W. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5 ft or less
prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient prevails across the
region due to a frontal boundary across the Bahamas and the
southern Gulf of America, and will maintain moderate to fresh
trades in the south-central Caribbean through Wed night and
moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. The cold front will likely
reach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel Mon night into Tue
where it will remain through Wed before dissipating. Moderate to
fresh NE winds and moderate to rough seas will impact the waters
of Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean through early Wed
morning. Moderate to fresh SE winds will develop in the eastern
Caribbean on Thu, and prevail through Fri night as surface ridging
builds N of the area.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the Special Features section above for information on gales
ongoing southwest of Bermuda behind the cold front moving through
western Atlantic waters. Recent satellite scatterometer data shows
NE to N winds of 30 to 50 kt across a broad area of the western
Atlantic to the W of a 1010 mb surface low near 31N71W and an
associated frontal zone. Large seas of 12 to 20 ft in N to NE
swell prevail across the local waters N of 28N and W of 71W.
Recent satellite altimeter data showed seas 13-14 ft in the
Gulfstream offshore of Miami and Ft Lauderdale. Seas are 8 to 12
ft elsewhere NW of the front outside of the Bahamas. Scattered to
locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring
along and within 180 nm S of the front between 71W and 80W.
To the east of this cold front, a deep layered upper low continues
across the central Atlantic near 27N51W, and is promoting unstable
atmospheric conditions across that area. A pair of surface troughs
near this feature, along 60W and 53W are accompanied by scattered
moderate convection from 22N to 29N between 48W and 60W. Another
more significant surface trough from 31N49W to 23N42W is
interacting favorably with the upper low to produce scattered to
numerous moderate to strong convection along and within 240 nm E
of this surface trough. Fresh to locally strong E to E-SE winds
and seas of 7 to 11 ft in mixed N swell and E wind waves are
found east of the surface trough to 40W. Moderate winds and seas
of 4 to 6 ft prevail near the pair of troughs to the W. To the
south of these features, a weak pressure gradient is yielding
gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft between
35W and the Lesser Antilles. A series of 3 low level easterly
perturbations in the trade wind flow are producing scattered to
locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection from 09N to
16.5N between 35W and 52W. To the E of 35W moderate to fresh NE to
E winds generally prevail between the Canary Islands, Africa and
35W, with seas of 4 to 7 ft in NW to N swell.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will extend from
31N71W to the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida by early
Mon morning, and from near 31N70W to west-central Cuba by Mon
night, where it will weaken before dissipating into midweek. The
low pressure system associated with the front near 32N71W will
lift northward tonight, allowing winds to gradually diminish
behind the front tonight through Mon. Large N to NE swell
generated by this low pressure will affect the Atlantic waters W
of 68W through Tue night, then subside modestly, then increase
again Wed through Fri across the waters W of 65W.
$$
Stripling
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Mon, 19 Oct 2026 04:54:55 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 190454
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Oct 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front has stalled tonight
across the southern Gulf, from the Straits of Florida to near
22N90W to the central Bay of Campeche and into the coast of
Mexico near 93W. Satellite imagery suggests that the portion of
the front W of 90W has been drifting westward in recent hours.
1026 mb high pressure has moved into far NE Mexico, while 1035 mb
high pressure is across the NE U.S. extending a ridge southward
across the basin. The pressure gradient south of these highs is
forcing gale-force NW to N winds and very rough seas of 14-20 ft
across the SW waters of the Gulf, S of 21N between the front and
the Mexican coastline, while fresh to strong E-NE to NE winds and
seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail across most of the remainder of the
basin N of the front. The front will remain generally stationary
and weaken into Tue. Gale winds and very rough seas to 15 ft will
prevail in the SW basin through sunrise, then slowly diminish
through Tue night.
Atlantic Gale Warning: The aforementioned cold front is eastward
across the Atlantic waters N of 27N, and extends through 31N71.5W
to 27N73W then becomes nearly stationary through the NW Bahamas
and into the Straits of Florida. W of the cold front, N-NE to NE
winds of 20 to 30 kt prevail, with winds near gale-force and
frequent gusts to 40 kt N of 29N and W of 73W, where a Gale
Warning is in effect. Very rough seas of 12 to 16 ft prevail
across these waters. The front is associated with a deep low
pressure system across the western Atlantic currently near 32N71W.
The low is expected to lift northward overnight, which will slow
the forward progress of the front. Winds west of the front are
expected to gradually diminish later tonight, with gales ending by
morning.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends across western Africa to the coast of
Guiea-Bissau near 12N16W and extends about 60 nm to the southwest.
The ITCZ extends from 07N21W to 06N36W to 09.5N45W to the coast of
Guyana near 06.5N58W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is occurring from 09N to 16.5N between
35W and 52W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
See the Special Features section above for information on the Gale
Warning in effect for portions of the southwest basin. Outside
of the gales, recent satellite scatterometer data shows strong
E-NE winds 20-28 kt E of 92W, and fresh to strong NE to N winds W
of 92W and N of 21N. Seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail across most of
the basin N of the front, highest SW portions. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are within 60 nm either side of the front.
For the forecast, the front will meander about over the Straits
of Florida and to the NW Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche
tonight through Mon, then drift to the southeast of the Gulf
through Tue as it weakens. Gale-force winds will persist over the
SW Gulf offshore Veracruz through early Mon morning, while winds
and seas diminish modestly across the remainder of the basin.
High pressure behind the front will continue to support fresh NE
to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf through Tue.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A weakening upper-level trough across the NW Caribbean continues
to support scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong
convection across the Gulf of Honduras and the waters within 150
nm of the NE coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua, while moderate
convection is further south across the SW basin in association
with the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough.
Stable atmospheric conditions and fair skies prevail across most
of the basin elsewhere E of 72W. A weak pressure gradient across
the region is yielding only moderate to fresh trades and seas of
4-6 ft seas across the central Caribbean S of 16N between 64W and
78W. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5 ft or less
prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient prevails across the
region due to a frontal boundary across the Bahamas and the
southern Gulf of America, and will maintain moderate to fresh
trades in the south-central Caribbean through Wed night and
moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. The cold front will likely
reach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel Mon night into Tue
where it will remain through Wed before dissipating. Moderate to
fresh NE winds and moderate to rough seas will impact the waters
of Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean through early Wed
morning. Moderate to fresh SE winds will develop in the eastern
Caribbean on Thu, and prevail through Fri night as surface ridging
builds N of the area.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the Special Features section above for information on gales
ongoing southwest of Bermuda behind the cold front moving through
western Atlantic waters. Recent satellite scatterometer data shows
NE to N winds of 30 to 50 kt across a broad area of the western
Atlantic to the W of a 1010 mb surface low near 31N71W and an
associated frontal zone. Large seas of 12 to 20 ft in N to NE
swell prevail across the local waters N of 28N and W of 71W.
Recent satellite altimeter data showed seas 13-14 ft in the
Gulfstream offshore of Miami and Ft Lauderdale. Seas are 8 to 12
ft elsewhere NW of the front outside of the Bahamas. Scattered to
locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring
along and within 180 nm S of the front between 71W and 80W.
To the east of this cold front, a deep layered upper low continues
across the central Atlantic near 27N51W, and is promoting unstable
atmospheric conditions across that area. A pair of surface troughs
near this feature, along 60W and 53W are accompanied by scattered
moderate convection from 22N to 29N between 48W and 60W. Another
more significant surface trough from 31N49W to 23N42W is
interacting favorably with the upper low to produce scattered to
numerous moderate to strong convection along and within 240 nm E
of this surface trough. Fresh to locally strong E to E-SE winds
and seas of 7 to 11 ft in mixed N swell and E wind waves are
found east of the surface trough to 40W. Moderate winds and seas
of 4 to 6 ft prevail near the pair of troughs to the W. To the
south of these features, a weak pressure gradient is yielding
gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft between
35W and the Lesser Antilles. A series of 3 low level easterly
perturbations in the trade wind flow are producing scattered to
locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection from 09N to
16.5N between 35W and 52W. To the E of 35W moderate to fresh NE to
E winds generally prevail between the Canary Islands, Africa and
35W, with seas of 4 to 7 ft in NW to N swell.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will extend from
31N71W to the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida by early
Mon morning, and from near 31N70W to west-central Cuba by Mon
night, where it will weaken before dissipating into midweek. The
low pressure system associated with the front near 32N71W will
lift northward tonight, allowing winds to gradually diminish
behind the front tonight through Mon. Large N to NE swell
generated by this low pressure will affect the Atlantic waters W
of 68W through Tue night, then subside modestly, then increase
again Wed through Fri across the waters W of 65W.
$$
Stripling
Active Tropical Systems
- Tue, 20 Oct 2026 17:02:06 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 07:00:11 GMT - Mon, 19 Oct 2026 05:02:06 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 190501
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Off the East Coast of the United States:
A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is located along a
frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeast coast of the
United States. This low is likely to move slowly and erratically
over the next couple of days, and it could gradually acquire
subtropical characteristics if it remains over the Gulf Stream. A
subtropical cyclone could form during the middle to latter portions
of the week when the system begins to move northeastward away from
the eastern United States. Environmental conditions are expected to
become unfavorable for development by the weekend. Regardless of
the system's status, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous
surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the
next few days. Please consult statements and warnings from local
National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center
for more information, along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm
Warnings issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sun, 18 Oct 2026 14:10:56 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 181410
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1010 AM EDT SUN 18 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-140
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR
36.0N 71.0W FOR 20/1800Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf