2026 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models

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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2026 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 7 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:11:00 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 152010
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0015 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1900 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Northwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL90): A trough of low
    pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large
    area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development is not
    expected during the next day or so while the trough remains
    inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern
    Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental
    conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a
    short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday.
    Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across
    southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and
    Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over
    the next several days which could produce widespread, life-
    threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and
    coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the
    northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings
    could be required on Tue. Additional information on this system
    can be found in products issued by your local National Weather
    Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages. This area has a
    medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.
    Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the
    National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers ABNT20
    KNHC/TWOAT or at website
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for further details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 22W, south of
    18N just east of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving westward at
    around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N
    to 11N between 13W and 24W.

    An Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 16N, moving
    westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
    present from 03N to 09N and between 34W and 41W.

    An Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 18N to Suriname,
    moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
    strong convection is present from 07N to 10N between 51W and 62W.

    A Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 20N or Hispaniola
    to portions of far NW Venezuela and eastern Colombia, moving
    westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen over the
    waters south of 16N in the south-central Caribbean with deep
    convection present and enhanced over portions of Venezuela and
    Colombia.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 07N33W. The
    ITCZ extends from 07N33W to 06N40W and then resumes from 05.5N42.5W
    to 07N55W. In addition to convection described above in the
    TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is found
    from 05N to 08N between 45W and 49W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
    the potential for tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of
    America.

    Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring along and near
    the coasts of NE Mexico, Texas, and SW Louisiana with a frontal
    boundary inland over Texas and Mexico, as well as multiple surface
    troughs analyzed inland. The tightening pressure gradient between
    these troughs and a subtropical ridge stemming from the Atlantic
    support moderate to locally fresh SE winds and in the W Gulf, as
    well as in the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail
    elsewhere. Seas in the Gulf range from 1-2 E of 90W, except to 4
    ft near the Yucatan Channel, and 3-5 ft W of 90W.

    For the forecast, a trough with weak low pressure along it is
    inland northeastern Mexico. It will slowly move northward during
    the next couple of days. It is then forecast to move northeastward
    along the Texas coast, and possibly re-emerge over the NW Gulf
    late Tue or Wed, at which time environmental conditions may be
    marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical
    storm Wed into Thu. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are
    expected over the NW Gulf through Thu. Otherwise, a tightening
    pressure gradient over the area will sustain fresh to strong
    southerly winds over the western Gulf early Wed through late Thu
    night, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. Winds
    begin to diminish Fri as high pressure settles in over the eastern
    Gulf.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are ongoing in
    the far SW Caribbean, near the East Pacific monsoon trough. The
    pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and the
    Colombia Low supports fresh to strong E winds and rough seas
    across much of the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
    trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern and NW Caribbean,
    except locally strong offshore central Honduras. Gentle to
    moderate trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

    For the forecast, the gradient between broad Atlantic high
    pressure and relatively lower pressures south of the Greater
    Antilles will sustain a rather extensive area of fresh to strong
    trade winds in the south-central section of the basin through the
    forecast period. The highest of the winds and seas are expected
    off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds
    are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri. Gentle
    to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will
    become southeast at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A surface trough is analyzed from 31N42W to 25N55W to 19N64W,
    with scattered moderate convection seen N of 29N between 35W and
    50W. Another surface trough is analyzed N of the Bahamas from
    31N76W to 27N79W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are N of 27N and E of
    the trough to 67W along with 4-6 ft seas. Some scattered showers
    are found near the trough. Otherwise, ridging extends and
    dominates from 31N28W to 1024 mb high pressure near 29N34W to 1022
    mb high pressure near 26N61W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker
    across the remainder of the waters W of 35W, except moderate to
    fresh S of 22N near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Fresh to strong
    N-NE winds are found offshore Africa from 20N to 31N to the E of
    20W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are found from this area to
    the Lesser Antilles in a belt extending N of the ITCZ where three
    Atlantic tropical waves are present as described in detail above.
    Seas of 3-6 ft dominate the open tropical Atlantic waters in mixed
    NE-E and NW-N swells.

    For the forecast west of 55W, broad high pressure over the area
    will change little through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night.
    The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally
    fresh trade winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing some in
    coverage beginning Fri night. Moderate to fresh southwest winds
    east of northeast Florida to near 74W are ahead of a trough. These
    winds will expand eastward to near 67W through Wed, as a weak
    frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. It is expected
    to move offshore late Fri night and stall offshore northeast
    Florida Sat and Sat night. Expect fresh to strong winds each
    afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto
    Rico and Hispaniola.

    $$
    Lewitsky
Tropical Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:11:00 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 152010
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0015 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1900 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Northwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL90): A trough of low
    pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large
    area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development is not
    expected during the next day or so while the trough remains
    inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern
    Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental
    conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a
    short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday.
    Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across
    southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and
    Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over
    the next several days which could produce widespread, life-
    threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and
    coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the
    northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings
    could be required on Tue. Additional information on this system
    can be found in products issued by your local National Weather
    Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages. This area has a
    medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.
    Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the
    National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers ABNT20
    KNHC/TWOAT or at website
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for further details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 22W, south of
    18N just east of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving westward at
    around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N
    to 11N between 13W and 24W.

    An Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 16N, moving
    westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
    present from 03N to 09N and between 34W and 41W.

    An Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 18N to Suriname,
    moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
    strong convection is present from 07N to 10N between 51W and 62W.

    A Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 20N or Hispaniola
    to portions of far NW Venezuela and eastern Colombia, moving
    westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen over the
    waters south of 16N in the south-central Caribbean with deep
    convection present and enhanced over portions of Venezuela and
    Colombia.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 07N33W. The
    ITCZ extends from 07N33W to 06N40W and then resumes from 05.5N42.5W
    to 07N55W. In addition to convection described above in the
    TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is found
    from 05N to 08N between 45W and 49W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
    the potential for tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of
    America.

    Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring along and near
    the coasts of NE Mexico, Texas, and SW Louisiana with a frontal
    boundary inland over Texas and Mexico, as well as multiple surface
    troughs analyzed inland. The tightening pressure gradient between
    these troughs and a subtropical ridge stemming from the Atlantic
    support moderate to locally fresh SE winds and in the W Gulf, as
    well as in the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail
    elsewhere. Seas in the Gulf range from 1-2 E of 90W, except to 4
    ft near the Yucatan Channel, and 3-5 ft W of 90W.

    For the forecast, a trough with weak low pressure along it is
    inland northeastern Mexico. It will slowly move northward during
    the next couple of days. It is then forecast to move northeastward
    along the Texas coast, and possibly re-emerge over the NW Gulf
    late Tue or Wed, at which time environmental conditions may be
    marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical
    storm Wed into Thu. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are
    expected over the NW Gulf through Thu. Otherwise, a tightening
    pressure gradient over the area will sustain fresh to strong
    southerly winds over the western Gulf early Wed through late Thu
    night, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. Winds
    begin to diminish Fri as high pressure settles in over the eastern
    Gulf.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are ongoing in
    the far SW Caribbean, near the East Pacific monsoon trough. The
    pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and the
    Colombia Low supports fresh to strong E winds and rough seas
    across much of the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
    trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern and NW Caribbean,
    except locally strong offshore central Honduras. Gentle to
    moderate trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

    For the forecast, the gradient between broad Atlantic high
    pressure and relatively lower pressures south of the Greater
    Antilles will sustain a rather extensive area of fresh to strong
    trade winds in the south-central section of the basin through the
    forecast period. The highest of the winds and seas are expected
    off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds
    are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri. Gentle
    to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will
    become southeast at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A surface trough is analyzed from 31N42W to 25N55W to 19N64W,
    with scattered moderate convection seen N of 29N between 35W and
    50W. Another surface trough is analyzed N of the Bahamas from
    31N76W to 27N79W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are N of 27N and E of
    the trough to 67W along with 4-6 ft seas. Some scattered showers
    are found near the trough. Otherwise, ridging extends and
    dominates from 31N28W to 1024 mb high pressure near 29N34W to 1022
    mb high pressure near 26N61W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker
    across the remainder of the waters W of 35W, except moderate to
    fresh S of 22N near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Fresh to strong
    N-NE winds are found offshore Africa from 20N to 31N to the E of
    20W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are found from this area to
    the Lesser Antilles in a belt extending N of the ITCZ where three
    Atlantic tropical waves are present as described in detail above.
    Seas of 3-6 ft dominate the open tropical Atlantic waters in mixed
    NE-E and NW-N swells.

    For the forecast west of 55W, broad high pressure over the area
    will change little through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night.
    The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally
    fresh trade winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing some in
    coverage beginning Fri night. Moderate to fresh southwest winds
    east of northeast Florida to near 74W are ahead of a trough. These
    winds will expand eastward to near 67W through Wed, as a weak
    frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. It is expected
    to move offshore late Fri night and stall offshore northeast
    Florida Sat and Sat night. Expect fresh to strong winds each
    afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto
    Rico and Hispaniola.

    $$
    Lewitsky
Active Tropical Systems
  • Wed, 17 Jun 2026 05:32:01 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
    No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:11:02 GMT
  • Mon, 15 Jun 2026 17:32:01 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 151731
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

    Northwestern Gulf of America:
    A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is
    producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
    Development is not expected during the next day or so while the
    trough remains inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the
    northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and
    environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the
    formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into
    Thursday.

    Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern
    and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should
    prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days
    which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and
    river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible
    along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm
    Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday. Additional
    information on this system can be found in products issued by your
    local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Blake
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
  • Mon, 15 Jun 2026 16:13:01 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
    000
    NOUS42 KNHC 151612
    REPRPD
    WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
    CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
    1215 PM EDT MON 15 JUNE 2026
    SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
    VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z JUNE 2026
    TCPOD NUMBER.....26-015

    I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA)
    FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
    A. 17/0600Z A. 17/1130,1730Z
    B. AFXXX 01AAA SURVEY B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
    C. 17/0345Z C. 17/0930Z
    D. 27.0N 97.0W D. 28.0N 96.0W
    E. 17/0530Z TO 17/0930Z E. 17/1100Z TO 17/1730Z
    F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
    G. SYSTEM SURVEY G. FIX
    H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
    A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A
    THREAT.
    B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION
    INTO SUSPECT AREA FOR 17/1800Z.

    II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    $$
    WJM/KAL/RAR

    NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
  • Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf
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