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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Tue, 15 Sep 2026 04:02:57 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
088
AXNT20 KNHC 150402
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Sep 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave axis is along 54W, S of 20N, moving west at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is depicted
from 12N to 17.5N between 50W and 56W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
near 10.5N14.5W and continues to 11N21W to 07.5N43W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N44W to 11N54W. Numerous strong convection is from
06N to 14N E of 18W to the coast of Africa. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06.5N to 13N between 18W and 28W, and
from 06.5N to 12.5N between 28W and 50W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Widely scattered showers prevail across the basin from 23N to 28N,
supported by a weakening middle to upper-level trough from the
Yucatan Channel to SE Texas. Evening convection across much of
interior Florida continues to shift southwestward and weaken as it
reaches the western coastal waters of Florida. At the surface, a
1017 mb high pressure center is just offshore SE Louisiana, and
dominates the Gulf waters with anticyclonic flow. Recent
scatterometer data shows light to gentle winds across the basin E
of 92W, while fresh to locally strong NE winds prevail wihtin 120
nm of the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and over the eastern Bay
of Campeche, and moderate SE winds are W of 95W. Seas are
generally 3 ft or less, except 3-5 ft near the Yucatan Peninsula,
and 3 to locally 4 ft W of 95W.
For the forecast, a weak ridge centered over the noreth-central
Gulf will persist into Tue supporting relatively tranquil marine
conditions across much of the basin. The exception will be the Bay
of Campeche, where a diurnal trough will move westward offshore
the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through late this week,
bringing nightly pulses of fresh to locally strong NE winds.
Starting late Tue, stronger high pressure building southward from
the eastern United States, behind a weakening frontal boundary,
will lead to increasing NE to E winds over the basin, with
increasing winds reaching fresh to locally strong speeds, and seas
building to rough over the northern Gulf Wed through Thu night.
Conditions will improve Fri through Sat.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A persistent middle to upper-level low pressure system prevails
across the Greater Antilles tonight, and is supporting scattered
moderate convection between Haiti and 80W, and scattered light to
moderate convection across the eastern Caribbean. At the surface,
weak high pressure is centered just northeast of the NW Bahamas,
and extends a ridge to 60W. The pressure gradient between this
ridge and lower pressures in Colombia combine to sustain fresh to
strong with locally near gale-force easterly trade winds across
much of the central Caribbean between 68W and 78W, as well as the
Windward Passage. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across this area. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere, except light winds
across far NW portions. Scattered to locally numerous heavy
showers and thunderstorms are ongoing over the SW Caribbean
between Colombia and NE Nicaragua, along the eastern extension of
the E Pacific monsoon through.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical
ridge located north of the Greater Antilles and lower pressures
in Colombia will support fresh to locally near gale-force easterly
trade winds and moderate to rough seas across much of the central
Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere through the
workweek. Expect moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate
seas across NW portions, except for moderate to fresh winds mainly
in the evenings near the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba through
midweek. Winds may diminish across the basin by the end of the
week into the upcoming weekend as the pressures gradient relaxes.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A broad ridge dominates much of the Atlantic basin N of 10N and E
of 60W, producing moderate to fresh easterly winds between 30W
and 60W, except for fresh winds and scattered moderate convection
near the tropical wave along 54W. A deep layered upper cyclone is
interacting with a surface trough from 31N53W to 24N50W, producing
scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 27N to 31N
between 44W and 53W. Fresh SE winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are
occurring across NE portions of this trough. Environmental
conditions near this system are forecast to become more conducive
for development by the middle of this week. A tropical depression
could form late this week as the system moves slowly west-
northwestward over the subtropical Atlantic. There is a medium
chance of tropical cyclone development within the next seven days.
To the W of 60W, a 1018 mb high center is analyzed near 28N74W,
and extends a weak ridge to 60W. The pressure gradient to the S of
this ridge is promoting moderate to fresh trades S of 23N and
through the Bahamas, with strongest winds off Hispaniola and in
the Windward Passage. Elsewhere W of 30W, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail over the central and eastern
subtropical waters. Broad low pressure along the NW coast of
Africa in recent days has weakened and drifted westward over the
Atlantic waters between NW Africa and 35W, where gentle to
moderate NE to E winds generally prevail N of 10N, with seas of 4
to 6 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, a broad and weak subtropical ridge
dominates much of the basin, forcing fresh E winds off Hispaniola
and in the Windward Passage. On Tue, strong high pressure building
southward through the eastern United States will bring a cold
front into the NW waters, increasing NE winds to fresh to locally
strong behind the front, and producing building seas to rough N
of the Bahamas and W of 70W through early Thu. Conditions will
improve later Thu into Fri. During the middle to later portion of
the week, a trough of low pressure is forecast to move west-
northwestward into the NE portion of the waters, bringing
thunderstorms while also weakening the high and pressure gradient.
$$
Stripling
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Tue, 15 Sep 2026 04:02:57 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
088
AXNT20 KNHC 150402
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Sep 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave axis is along 54W, S of 20N, moving west at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is depicted
from 12N to 17.5N between 50W and 56W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
near 10.5N14.5W and continues to 11N21W to 07.5N43W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N44W to 11N54W. Numerous strong convection is from
06N to 14N E of 18W to the coast of Africa. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06.5N to 13N between 18W and 28W, and
from 06.5N to 12.5N between 28W and 50W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Widely scattered showers prevail across the basin from 23N to 28N,
supported by a weakening middle to upper-level trough from the
Yucatan Channel to SE Texas. Evening convection across much of
interior Florida continues to shift southwestward and weaken as it
reaches the western coastal waters of Florida. At the surface, a
1017 mb high pressure center is just offshore SE Louisiana, and
dominates the Gulf waters with anticyclonic flow. Recent
scatterometer data shows light to gentle winds across the basin E
of 92W, while fresh to locally strong NE winds prevail wihtin 120
nm of the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and over the eastern Bay
of Campeche, and moderate SE winds are W of 95W. Seas are
generally 3 ft or less, except 3-5 ft near the Yucatan Peninsula,
and 3 to locally 4 ft W of 95W.
For the forecast, a weak ridge centered over the noreth-central
Gulf will persist into Tue supporting relatively tranquil marine
conditions across much of the basin. The exception will be the Bay
of Campeche, where a diurnal trough will move westward offshore
the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through late this week,
bringing nightly pulses of fresh to locally strong NE winds.
Starting late Tue, stronger high pressure building southward from
the eastern United States, behind a weakening frontal boundary,
will lead to increasing NE to E winds over the basin, with
increasing winds reaching fresh to locally strong speeds, and seas
building to rough over the northern Gulf Wed through Thu night.
Conditions will improve Fri through Sat.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A persistent middle to upper-level low pressure system prevails
across the Greater Antilles tonight, and is supporting scattered
moderate convection between Haiti and 80W, and scattered light to
moderate convection across the eastern Caribbean. At the surface,
weak high pressure is centered just northeast of the NW Bahamas,
and extends a ridge to 60W. The pressure gradient between this
ridge and lower pressures in Colombia combine to sustain fresh to
strong with locally near gale-force easterly trade winds across
much of the central Caribbean between 68W and 78W, as well as the
Windward Passage. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across this area. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere, except light winds
across far NW portions. Scattered to locally numerous heavy
showers and thunderstorms are ongoing over the SW Caribbean
between Colombia and NE Nicaragua, along the eastern extension of
the E Pacific monsoon through.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical
ridge located north of the Greater Antilles and lower pressures
in Colombia will support fresh to locally near gale-force easterly
trade winds and moderate to rough seas across much of the central
Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere through the
workweek. Expect moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate
seas across NW portions, except for moderate to fresh winds mainly
in the evenings near the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba through
midweek. Winds may diminish across the basin by the end of the
week into the upcoming weekend as the pressures gradient relaxes.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A broad ridge dominates much of the Atlantic basin N of 10N and E
of 60W, producing moderate to fresh easterly winds between 30W
and 60W, except for fresh winds and scattered moderate convection
near the tropical wave along 54W. A deep layered upper cyclone is
interacting with a surface trough from 31N53W to 24N50W, producing
scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 27N to 31N
between 44W and 53W. Fresh SE winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are
occurring across NE portions of this trough. Environmental
conditions near this system are forecast to become more conducive
for development by the middle of this week. A tropical depression
could form late this week as the system moves slowly west-
northwestward over the subtropical Atlantic. There is a medium
chance of tropical cyclone development within the next seven days.
To the W of 60W, a 1018 mb high center is analyzed near 28N74W,
and extends a weak ridge to 60W. The pressure gradient to the S of
this ridge is promoting moderate to fresh trades S of 23N and
through the Bahamas, with strongest winds off Hispaniola and in
the Windward Passage. Elsewhere W of 30W, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail over the central and eastern
subtropical waters. Broad low pressure along the NW coast of
Africa in recent days has weakened and drifted westward over the
Atlantic waters between NW Africa and 35W, where gentle to
moderate NE to E winds generally prevail N of 10N, with seas of 4
to 6 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, a broad and weak subtropical ridge
dominates much of the basin, forcing fresh E winds off Hispaniola
and in the Windward Passage. On Tue, strong high pressure building
southward through the eastern United States will bring a cold
front into the NW waters, increasing NE winds to fresh to locally
strong behind the front, and producing building seas to rough N
of the Bahamas and W of 70W through early Thu. Conditions will
improve later Thu into Fri. During the middle to later portion of
the week, a trough of low pressure is forecast to move west-
northwestward into the NE portion of the waters, bringing
thunderstorms while also weakening the high and pressure gradient.
$$
Stripling
Active Tropical Systems
- Wed, 16 Sep 2026 17:37:08 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 15 Sep 2026 06:01:26 GMT - Tue, 15 Sep 2026 05:37:08 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
324
ABNT20 KNHC 150537
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located well east-southeast of Bermuda
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development in a few days, and a tropical depression could form late
this week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the
subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Mon, 14 Sep 2026 13:38:43 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 141328
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT MON 14 SEPTEMBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-106
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf