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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sun, 20 Sep 2026 16:35:12 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 201635
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Sep 20 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1621 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W, south of
20N, drifting slowly westward. A weak 1015 mb low is also
along this wave axis. However, no significant convection is
depicted at this time in association with this wave.
The western Caribbean tropical wave is transitioning into the
Eastern Pacific, and it is discussed in the Eastern Pacific
Tropical Weather Discussion (TWDEP).
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 18N16W to
08N39W. Aside from convection noted in the Atlantic section
below, scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 15N and
east of 21.5W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area with a weak
trough over the W-central Gulf. An E to W surface trough extends
from the Straits of Florida to near 24N87W. A few showers and
thunderstorms are active along the trough. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also active over the northeast Gulf, related to
divergence aloft near an upper low centered over Florida. Light to
gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail across the Gulf.
For the forecast, weak ridging north of the Gulf will maintain
generally gentle to moderate winds across the basin through mid
week. A vigorous upper-level low and associated surface low or
trough over the central Gulf will contribute to scattered showers
and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf through the midweek, with
the Straits of Florida the most active area.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A relatively weak pressure pattern is across the basin with
surface troughs N of the basin interrupting the typical Azores-
Bermuda highs. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas are found
across the south-central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds
and 2-4 ft seas elsewhere. An upper level low north of the area is
supporting scattered moderate convection over the NW part of the
basin. Numerous moderate convection is depicted south of 14.5N and
west of 80W in association with the eastern end of the Eastern
Pacific monsoon trough.
For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between weak high
pressure near Bermuda and the Colombian Low will maintain moderate
to fresh to trades over the south-central Caribbean for the next
several days. A vigorous upper-level low over the Gulf of America
will promote scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over
the west and northwestern Caribbean through midweek.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
For awareness purposes, Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 34.1N
33.0W at 20/1500 UTC or 370 nm SW of the Azores, moving NE at 3
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
Divergence aloft associated with an upper low over Florida is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 70W. Farther
east, another upper trough reaches from an upper low near 31N41W
to 26N46W. This upper trough is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms from 20N to 31N between 50W and 60W, focused along
a surface trough reaching from 30N60W to 23N50W. In addition, the
upper pattern is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms
from 20N to 28N between 35W to 43W along a trough from 32N40W to
26N42W. Farther south, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are active within 75 to 150 nm in the northeast
quadrant of a 1014 mb surface low centered near 15N52W. Broad
ridging covers the eastern Atlantic. Gentle to moderate winds and
3-6 ft seas prevail across the Atlantic discussion area.
For the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient
across the western Atlantic will promote variable gentle to
moderate winds across forecast waters for the next several days. A
vigorous upper-level low over the Gulf of America and Florida,
and abundant tropical moisture across the Atlantic will force
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters west of 70W
through midweek.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fay is forecast to eventually approach
and move into the discussion waters to near 30N 36W Tue night,
but by then as a remnant low.
$$
KRV
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sun, 20 Sep 2026 16:35:12 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 201635
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Sep 20 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1621 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W, south of
20N, drifting slowly westward. A weak 1015 mb low is also
along this wave axis. However, no significant convection is
depicted at this time in association with this wave.
The western Caribbean tropical wave is transitioning into the
Eastern Pacific, and it is discussed in the Eastern Pacific
Tropical Weather Discussion (TWDEP).
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 18N16W to
08N39W. Aside from convection noted in the Atlantic section
below, scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 15N and
east of 21.5W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area with a weak
trough over the W-central Gulf. An E to W surface trough extends
from the Straits of Florida to near 24N87W. A few showers and
thunderstorms are active along the trough. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also active over the northeast Gulf, related to
divergence aloft near an upper low centered over Florida. Light to
gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail across the Gulf.
For the forecast, weak ridging north of the Gulf will maintain
generally gentle to moderate winds across the basin through mid
week. A vigorous upper-level low and associated surface low or
trough over the central Gulf will contribute to scattered showers
and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf through the midweek, with
the Straits of Florida the most active area.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A relatively weak pressure pattern is across the basin with
surface troughs N of the basin interrupting the typical Azores-
Bermuda highs. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas are found
across the south-central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds
and 2-4 ft seas elsewhere. An upper level low north of the area is
supporting scattered moderate convection over the NW part of the
basin. Numerous moderate convection is depicted south of 14.5N and
west of 80W in association with the eastern end of the Eastern
Pacific monsoon trough.
For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between weak high
pressure near Bermuda and the Colombian Low will maintain moderate
to fresh to trades over the south-central Caribbean for the next
several days. A vigorous upper-level low over the Gulf of America
will promote scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over
the west and northwestern Caribbean through midweek.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
For awareness purposes, Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 34.1N
33.0W at 20/1500 UTC or 370 nm SW of the Azores, moving NE at 3
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
Divergence aloft associated with an upper low over Florida is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 70W. Farther
east, another upper trough reaches from an upper low near 31N41W
to 26N46W. This upper trough is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms from 20N to 31N between 50W and 60W, focused along
a surface trough reaching from 30N60W to 23N50W. In addition, the
upper pattern is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms
from 20N to 28N between 35W to 43W along a trough from 32N40W to
26N42W. Farther south, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are active within 75 to 150 nm in the northeast
quadrant of a 1014 mb surface low centered near 15N52W. Broad
ridging covers the eastern Atlantic. Gentle to moderate winds and
3-6 ft seas prevail across the Atlantic discussion area.
For the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient
across the western Atlantic will promote variable gentle to
moderate winds across forecast waters for the next several days. A
vigorous upper-level low over the Gulf of America and Florida,
and abundant tropical moisture across the Atlantic will force
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters west of 70W
through midweek.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fay is forecast to eventually approach
and move into the discussion waters to near 30N 36W Tue night,
but by then as a remnant low.
$$
KRV
Active Tropical Systems
- Sun, 20 Sep 2026 21:23:07 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Graphics - NHC Atlantic
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2026 21:23:07 GMT - Sun, 20 Sep 2026 20:35:25 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 6 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026000 WTNT41 KNHC 202035 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 A few more convective bursts have occurred near the center of Fay in the last couple of hours as seen in the visible satellite imagery. Infrared satellite imagery indicates that some of the cloud tops have cooled to near -70 degrees C with the latest batch of convection. The current objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of 45-51 kt, and the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was a T3.5/55 kt. Based on the given data, the initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt, on the upper end of the satellite estimates. The environment that Fay is located in still has moisture for additional convective development and an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should allow for Fay to further intensify for about 12 hours or so. Once the trough lifts on Monday, wind shear should increase and dry air should find its way into the cyclone. This will lead to a gradual weakening of Fay. The current NHC intensity forecast calls for Fay to become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday and then dissipate near the end of the week. The intensity forecast is still a little higher than the model guidance in the short term as Fay's structure is over performing expectations due to the expected baroclinic support from the trough. It is still possible that Fay could reach hurricane strength sometime tonight. Fay is still moving slowly and off toward the north-northeast, with the initial motion estimated around 020/5 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for about 12 hours or. However, a low- to mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north by Monday. This ridge in turn will force Fay to turn southwestward and gradually accelerate over the course of the forecast period. The current NHC forecast track is similiar to the previous track forecast with a few minor adjustments and remains in good agreement with the HCCA and GDMI track aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 34.4N 32.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 34.3N 32.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 33.6N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 32.5N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 31.4N 35.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1800Z 29.0N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch
- Sun, 20 Sep 2026 20:34:54 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026000 FONT11 KNHC 202034 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH - Sun, 20 Sep 2026 20:34:27 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 6 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026000 WTNT31 KNHC 202034 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 ...FAY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.4N 32.7W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 32.7 West. Fay is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) this general motion is expected to continue through the rest of the day. Afterwards a turn to the southwest is expected on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast tonight, and Fay could approach hurricane intensity. A gradual weakening trend is expected to begin on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch
- Sun, 20 Sep 2026 20:34:27 +0000: Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062026) - NHC Atlantic
...FAY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS... As of 9:00 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 the center of Fay was located near 34.4, -32.7 with movement NNE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sun, 20 Sep 2026 15:43:24 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 201543
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT SUN 20 SEPTEMBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-112
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA EP99
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42
A. 21/1600Z
B. NOAA2 01AAE TDR
C. 21/1300Z
D. 15.0N 103.0W
E. 21/1500Z TO 21/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HOURLY FIXES ON EP99 AT
22/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.
$$
KAL
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf