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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Thu, 13 Aug 2026 22:20:34 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 132220
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will tighten
between subtropical high pressure across the western Atlantic
along 27N and the Colombian low on Friday. The tightening pressure
gradient will increase winds in the south central Caribbean, with
winds pulsing to gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela on Friday night. Very rough seas to 13 ft will build
near and downwind of these gales in the southwest Caribbean Fri
night into early Sat. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms have become less organized in
association with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of
the Lesser Antilles. In addition, recent satellite-derived wind
data indicate that the system does not have a closed circulation.
This system is expected to move into a region of strong upper-
level winds and dry air, and the development chances appear to be
decreasing. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system as gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are
possible Friday night and Saturday, regardless of development.
There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in the
next 48 hours.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 29W, from 02N to 20N, moving
west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 29W and 36W.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late
this week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west-
northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
There is a low chance for tropical development of this system in
the next 48 hours, and a medium chance for development in the next
7 days.
Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a tropical
wave with axis near 46W.
The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W, moving
westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 15N to 20N between 68W and 72W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends
southwestward to 10N33W to 14N44W then to 06.5N56W. Aside from
convection noted in the tropical waves and SPECIAL FEATURES
section above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 06N to 15N between 13W and 22W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by
a 1020 mb high near 27N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
prevail across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center.
Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge that extends westward across
Florida and into the Gulf region will change little through Sat
before weakening Sun and Mon. This pattern will produce mostly
gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin. Pulses of
fresh winds are expected north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula
and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a diurnal
surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across
the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the
forecast period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning
that has been issued for portion of the south-central basin
effective Fri night.
The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and
the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the
central Caribbean waters. Moderate seas prevail over these waters.
Fresh to locally strong trade winds and moderate seas are over
the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to
moderate seas, prevail over the remaining waters.
For the forecast, tradewinds will increase over the central
Caribbean tonight through Sat. Peak winds should reach gale force
just north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night into
Sat morning. A strong tropical wave- Invest AL92 - should start
impacting the Leeward Islands beginning tomorrow evening. Strong
to near gale force along with areas of heavy rain are expected Fri
night and Sat. These weather conditions will shift westward
toward the central Caribbean and the Greater Antilles, including
the Windward Passage from Sat night through Mon. Afterwards the
tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92
located over the central tropical Atlantic.
A surface trough extends over the SW N Atlantic from 30N63W to
the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is in the vicinity of the trough. High pressure
dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N,
anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 28N47W. Light to gentle
winds, and slight seas are in the vicinity of the high center,
mainly N of 24N between 30W and 60W. Fresh to strong winds, and
rough seas, generated by AL92 are from 12N to 17N between 41W and
50W. Fresh to strong winds are also found near the Canary Islands
SE toward the coast of Africa. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds, and moderate seas, prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NE to E winds are
expected south of 22N tonight through Sun night. Elsewhere, winds
are expected to remain light to moderate for the next few days.
A weak cold front will slowly push across our northern border
east of 70W Sun, causing a wind shift to northeast but with little
change in wind speeds on Sun and Mon north of 28N.
$$
AL
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Thu, 13 Aug 2026 22:20:34 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 132220
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will tighten
between subtropical high pressure across the western Atlantic
along 27N and the Colombian low on Friday. The tightening pressure
gradient will increase winds in the south central Caribbean, with
winds pulsing to gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela on Friday night. Very rough seas to 13 ft will build
near and downwind of these gales in the southwest Caribbean Fri
night into early Sat. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms have become less organized in
association with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of
the Lesser Antilles. In addition, recent satellite-derived wind
data indicate that the system does not have a closed circulation.
This system is expected to move into a region of strong upper-
level winds and dry air, and the development chances appear to be
decreasing. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system as gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are
possible Friday night and Saturday, regardless of development.
There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in the
next 48 hours.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 29W, from 02N to 20N, moving
west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 29W and 36W.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late
this week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west-
northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
There is a low chance for tropical development of this system in
the next 48 hours, and a medium chance for development in the next
7 days.
Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a tropical
wave with axis near 46W.
The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W, moving
westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 15N to 20N between 68W and 72W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends
southwestward to 10N33W to 14N44W then to 06.5N56W. Aside from
convection noted in the tropical waves and SPECIAL FEATURES
section above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 06N to 15N between 13W and 22W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by
a 1020 mb high near 27N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
prevail across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center.
Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge that extends westward across
Florida and into the Gulf region will change little through Sat
before weakening Sun and Mon. This pattern will produce mostly
gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin. Pulses of
fresh winds are expected north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula
and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a diurnal
surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across
the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the
forecast period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning
that has been issued for portion of the south-central basin
effective Fri night.
The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and
the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the
central Caribbean waters. Moderate seas prevail over these waters.
Fresh to locally strong trade winds and moderate seas are over
the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to
moderate seas, prevail over the remaining waters.
For the forecast, tradewinds will increase over the central
Caribbean tonight through Sat. Peak winds should reach gale force
just north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night into
Sat morning. A strong tropical wave- Invest AL92 - should start
impacting the Leeward Islands beginning tomorrow evening. Strong
to near gale force along with areas of heavy rain are expected Fri
night and Sat. These weather conditions will shift westward
toward the central Caribbean and the Greater Antilles, including
the Windward Passage from Sat night through Mon. Afterwards the
tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92
located over the central tropical Atlantic.
A surface trough extends over the SW N Atlantic from 30N63W to
the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is in the vicinity of the trough. High pressure
dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N,
anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 28N47W. Light to gentle
winds, and slight seas are in the vicinity of the high center,
mainly N of 24N between 30W and 60W. Fresh to strong winds, and
rough seas, generated by AL92 are from 12N to 17N between 41W and
50W. Fresh to strong winds are also found near the Canary Islands
SE toward the coast of Africa. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds, and moderate seas, prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NE to E winds are
expected south of 22N tonight through Sun night. Elsewhere, winds
are expected to remain light to moderate for the next few days.
A weak cold front will slowly push across our northern border
east of 70W Sun, causing a wind shift to northeast but with little
change in wind speeds on Sun and Mon north of 28N.
$$
AL
Active Tropical Systems
- Sat, 15 Aug 2026 11:19:45 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 13 Aug 2026 23:22:38 GMT - Thu, 13 Aug 2026 23:19:45 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
953
ABNT20 KNHC 132319
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have continued to
become less organized. This system is moving into a region of
increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and the possibility of
development appears to be decreasing. Regardless of development,
interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor the
progress of this system since gusty winds and areas of heavy rain
are possible across these islands Friday night and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this
week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Pasch
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Thu, 13 Aug 2026 18:04:41 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 131804
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0205 PM EDT THU 13 AUGUST 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z AUGUST 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-074 AMENDMENT
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM LALA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 79 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
A. 14/1730Z,2330Z A. 15/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0701C LALA B. NOAA9 0801C LALA
C. 14/1600Z C. 14/2000Z
D. 17.0N 150.5W D. NA
E. 14/1700Z TO 13/2330Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
G. FIX G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION
FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 77
A. 15/0000Z A. 15/0530Z,1130Z
B. NOAA2 0901C LALA B. AFXXX 1001C LALA
C. 14/2000Z C. 15/0415Z
D. 17.4N 151.7W D. 17.7N 153.0W
E. 14/2200Z TO 15/0230Z E. 14/0500Z TO 14/1130Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HOURLY FIX MISSIONS INTO TROPICAL STORM LALA IF
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO TROPICAL
STORM LALA FOR 16/0000Z, DEPARTING PHJR AT 15/2000Z.
3. REMARK: DURING THE NOAA 42 MISSION TASKED FOR THE 15/0000Z
SYNOPTIC TIME, FOUR SMALL UAS ARE PLANNED FOR RELEASE WITHIN
THE WRA. THEY WILL OPERATE AT OR BELOW 5,000 FT FOR ABOUT
1 TO 1.5 HOURS. (AMENDED)
$$
KAL
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf