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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Mon, 05 Oct 2026 20:37:52 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 052037
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Southwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL92): A trough of low
pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental
conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development
is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is expected to
form during the middle portion of the week. This system is
expected to drift eastward over the next couple of days, before it
turns northward. It is too early to determine the specific
impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should
closely monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance
through 48 hours and the next seven day is high.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 60W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N
between 56W and 62W.
A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along
85W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is active over Nicaragua and Costa Rica.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at 17N16W and extends to
07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 10N56W. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 11N to 15N between 18W and 24W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please read the Special Features section above for more
information on Invest AL92.
A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend area near 30N84W to
28N93W, where it becomes a stationary front and reaches to the
mouth of the Rio Grande near 26N97W. Farther south a trough
extends from 28N92W to the 1010 mb low pressure (Invest AL92) near
22N96W to 19N93W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend from
20N to 27N between 90W and 97W. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass indicated fresh to strong N to NE winds north and west of the
front along the coasts of Texas and Mexico as far south as
Veracruz. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas are
3-5 ft off Texas, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a
trough along the E Mexican offshores through Tue. Weak surface
ridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift eastward through late
Tue ahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf today through
Wed before it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and
building seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, gradual
development of a trough in the southwestern Gulf is becoming more
likely, and a a tropical depression is likely to form during the
middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to
drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward.
Regardless of development, fresh to locally strong winds and rough
seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat night.
Mariners should monitor the latest forecasts from the National
Hurricane Center.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Divergent flow aloft near an upper low centered over Jamaica is
supporting afternoon showers and thunderstorms across Haiti,
Jamaica, eastern Cuba and adjacent waters south of Haiti to 15N.
Broad ridging over the western Atlantic is supporting fresh E
winds over the south-central Caribbean, as noted in recent
scatterometer satellite data. A concurrent altimeter pass
indicated seas to 8 ft off Colombia in this area. Mostly moderate
E to SE winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the
Caribbean. Fresh E winds and seas to 7 ft are likely ongoing over
Atlantic waters just east of the southern Leeward and northern
Windward Islands, where scattered showers and thunderstorms are
active.
For the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and
central Caribbean through Tue morning, except offshore Colombia
and the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh winds will likely pulse to
strong speeds at night through tonight. Afterward, a cold front
will move across the waters N of the region, further weakening the
pressure gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds
across the basin through Thu. High pressure is forecast to develop
to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through
Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the easterly
winds over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri, then moderate
to fresh Fri night through Sat night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A few showers and thunderstorms are active off Jacksonville,
Florida, along a cold front reaching from 1014 mb low pressure
near 31N79W to 30N81W. Ridging dominates the remainder of the western
Atlantic, anchored by 1018 mb high pressure east of Bermuda near
31N58W. The pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds
and 3-5 ft west of 50W, except for an area of fresh winds and 7 ft
seas east of Martinique. Farther east, a few showers and
thunderstorms are active along a trough reaching from weak 1014
mb low pressure near 32N35W to 26N40W. This is breaking up the
subtropical ridge normally in place there, supporting light to
gentle breezes across the north Atlantic basin south of 31N and east
of 50W, with 3-5 ft seas in a mix of swell.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move slowly E over the area
tonight and early Tue, stalling from Bermuda to NE Florida Tue
night into Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will
follow the front, remaining off NE Florida through Wed night.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere
through Fri. Otherwise, by Fri evening, high pressure developing
SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase trades S of 22N
to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night.
$$
Christensen
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Mon, 05 Oct 2026 20:37:52 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 052037
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Southwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL92): A trough of low
pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental
conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development
is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is expected to
form during the middle portion of the week. This system is
expected to drift eastward over the next couple of days, before it
turns northward. It is too early to determine the specific
impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should
closely monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance
through 48 hours and the next seven day is high.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 60W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N
between 56W and 62W.
A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along
85W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is active over Nicaragua and Costa Rica.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at 17N16W and extends to
07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 10N56W. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 11N to 15N between 18W and 24W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please read the Special Features section above for more
information on Invest AL92.
A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend area near 30N84W to
28N93W, where it becomes a stationary front and reaches to the
mouth of the Rio Grande near 26N97W. Farther south a trough
extends from 28N92W to the 1010 mb low pressure (Invest AL92) near
22N96W to 19N93W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend from
20N to 27N between 90W and 97W. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass indicated fresh to strong N to NE winds north and west of the
front along the coasts of Texas and Mexico as far south as
Veracruz. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas are
3-5 ft off Texas, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a
trough along the E Mexican offshores through Tue. Weak surface
ridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift eastward through late
Tue ahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf today through
Wed before it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and
building seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, gradual
development of a trough in the southwestern Gulf is becoming more
likely, and a a tropical depression is likely to form during the
middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to
drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward.
Regardless of development, fresh to locally strong winds and rough
seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat night.
Mariners should monitor the latest forecasts from the National
Hurricane Center.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Divergent flow aloft near an upper low centered over Jamaica is
supporting afternoon showers and thunderstorms across Haiti,
Jamaica, eastern Cuba and adjacent waters south of Haiti to 15N.
Broad ridging over the western Atlantic is supporting fresh E
winds over the south-central Caribbean, as noted in recent
scatterometer satellite data. A concurrent altimeter pass
indicated seas to 8 ft off Colombia in this area. Mostly moderate
E to SE winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the
Caribbean. Fresh E winds and seas to 7 ft are likely ongoing over
Atlantic waters just east of the southern Leeward and northern
Windward Islands, where scattered showers and thunderstorms are
active.
For the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and
central Caribbean through Tue morning, except offshore Colombia
and the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh winds will likely pulse to
strong speeds at night through tonight. Afterward, a cold front
will move across the waters N of the region, further weakening the
pressure gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds
across the basin through Thu. High pressure is forecast to develop
to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through
Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the easterly
winds over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri, then moderate
to fresh Fri night through Sat night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A few showers and thunderstorms are active off Jacksonville,
Florida, along a cold front reaching from 1014 mb low pressure
near 31N79W to 30N81W. Ridging dominates the remainder of the western
Atlantic, anchored by 1018 mb high pressure east of Bermuda near
31N58W. The pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds
and 3-5 ft west of 50W, except for an area of fresh winds and 7 ft
seas east of Martinique. Farther east, a few showers and
thunderstorms are active along a trough reaching from weak 1014
mb low pressure near 32N35W to 26N40W. This is breaking up the
subtropical ridge normally in place there, supporting light to
gentle breezes across the north Atlantic basin south of 31N and east
of 50W, with 3-5 ft seas in a mix of swell.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move slowly E over the area
tonight and early Tue, stalling from Bermuda to NE Florida Tue
night into Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will
follow the front, remaining off NE Florida through Wed night.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere
through Fri. Otherwise, by Fri evening, high pressure developing
SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase trades S of 22N
to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night.
$$
Christensen
Active Tropical Systems
- Wed, 07 Oct 2026 05:29:03 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 05 Oct 2026 21:22:30 GMT - Mon, 05 Oct 2026 17:29:03 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 051728
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92):
A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although
environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual
development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is
expected to form during the middle portion of the week. This system
is expected to drift eastward over the next couple of days, before
it turns northward. It is too early to determine the specific
impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should
closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Mon, 05 Oct 2026 15:38:31 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 051538
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1140 AM EDT MON 05 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-127
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST GULF OF AMERICA)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. 07/0000Z
B. NOAA9 01BBA SURV
C. 06/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION INTO THE SUSPECT AREA NEAR
21.7N 93.7W FOR 07/1400Z.
B. NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND SUSPECT AREA
FOR 08/0000Z, DEPARTING KLAL 07/1730Z.
C. POSSIBLE NOAA 43 P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO THE
SUSPECT AREA FOR 07/1800Z AND 08/0600Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT
07/1400Z AND 08/0200Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf