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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2026 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Tue, 22 Sep 2026 02:25:59 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 220225
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0220 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Heavy Rainfall in Central America, Jamaica, and Cuba: A mid to
    upper- level trough currently extends over the NW Caribbean while
    relatively warm sea surface temperatures are present, and in
    addition there is a potential for a Central American Gyre to form
    during the next several days. All of these factors are expected to
    lead to enhanced moisture funneling into Central America and the
    Caribbean to support heavy rainfall from September 22nd through
    the 25th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact
    location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks
    likely across portions of Costa Rica and Panama, as well as across
    southern Guatemala, far western Honduras, and far northern El
    Salvador. Currently, heavy rainfall is ongoing over western
    Jamaica and into central and eastern Cuba. Heavy rainfall in these
    regions will raise concerns for life- threatening flash flooding
    and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as
    the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more
    information.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 32W/33W from
    05N to 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
    convection is noted with this wave.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 22N46W to
    07N50W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered to numerous
    showers and thunderstorms are active on the northern end of this
    tropical wave from 22N to 23N between 44W and 47W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
    13N17W southwestward to 11N25W. Segments of the ITCZ axis extend
    from 11N25W to 10N30W, from 10N33W to 08N48W, and from 07N51W to
    06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 14N
    between 20W and 25W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A very weak pressure gradient, anchored by 1013 mb high pressure
    off Panama City, Florida, prevails across the area generating
    light to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper-
    level trough over the eastern Gulf is supporting scattered
    showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Florida Straits, along
    an associated surface trough. A few showers and thunderstorms over
    the southwest Gulf under divergent flow aloft.

    For the forecast, a very weak pressure gradient will force gentle to
    moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. A vigorous upper-
    level low will promote scattered showers and thunderstorms over
    the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next two
    days. A cold front should dip into the NE Gulf Thu night and Fri,
    accompanied with little to no increase in the winds.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    As described above in the Special Features section, large areas
    of showers and thunderstorms continue to move northward across
    Jamaica and into western Cuba. This activity is due to abundant
    tropical moisture and divergent flow aloft on the southeast side
    of an upper trough extending from eastern Gulf to the Yucatan
    Channel. Isolated pockets of showers and thunderstorms are noted
    elsewhere across the western Caribbean. Outside of convection, a
    weak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate to fresh
    trades along with moderate seas remain east of 80W. Light to
    gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 80W.

    For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient between high pressure north
    of the area to the Colombian Low is forcing only moderate to
    fresh trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several
    days. A vigorous upper-level low is forcing scattered to numerous
    showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for at least the
    next two days.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    For awareness, Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 33.1N 32.2W at
    21/2100 UTC or 390 nm SW of the Azores, moving SSW at 3 kt.
    Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
    wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Please visit
    hurricanes.gov for more info on Tropical Storm Fay.

    A broad upper-level trough extends from the eastern Gulf with a
    smaller lobe over Georgia and northeast Florida. Divergent flow
    aloft east of the trough and ample deep layer moisture are
    supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms across the
    Bahamas and between the Bahamas and Bermuda west of 65W. Dry,
    subsident conditions prevail between 50W and 65W, except for a
    small area of thunderstorms northeast of Barbados near 16N56W, along
    a persistent surface trough. Another upper low is center farther
    east near 26N49W, supporting an area of showers and thunderstorms
    near from 22N to 23N between 44W and 47W on the northern end of a
    tropical wave. Mostly dry conditions are noted elsewhere. Outside
    of convection, a rather weak pressure gradient across much of the
    Atlantic supports mostly gentle to moderate trades. Seas of 3 to
    6 ft are occurring with these trades.

    For the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda-
    Azores High and lower pressure over the ITCZ is promoting gentle
    to moderate trades across forecast waters through Wed night. A
    vigorous upper-level low will continue to produce scattered
    showers and thunderstorms west of 65W for at least the next couple
    of days. A cold front will emerge from the SE United States coast
    late Wed night and extend from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas Fri
    morning and from 31N69W to the central Bahamas Sat morning. Fresh
    to strong N winds and increasing seas will follow the front on Thu
    and Fri, before diminishing on Sat.

    Meanwhile, farther to the northeast, Fay will weaken to a
    tropical depression near 31.6N 34.1W Tue morning, then become a
    remnant low and move to 30.7N 36.0W by Tue evening. Winds and seas
    near the remnant low will diminish as it moves to 30.1N 37.8W Wed
    morning, 29.7N 39.6W Wed evening, 29.5N 41.2W Thu morning, and
    29.5N 42.5W Thu evening. The remnant low of Fay will change little
    in intensity as it moves to 29.5N 44.3W by late Fri.

    $$
    Christensen
Tropical Weather Discussion
  • Tue, 22 Sep 2026 02:25:59 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 220225
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0220 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Heavy Rainfall in Central America, Jamaica, and Cuba: A mid to
    upper- level trough currently extends over the NW Caribbean while
    relatively warm sea surface temperatures are present, and in
    addition there is a potential for a Central American Gyre to form
    during the next several days. All of these factors are expected to
    lead to enhanced moisture funneling into Central America and the
    Caribbean to support heavy rainfall from September 22nd through
    the 25th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact
    location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks
    likely across portions of Costa Rica and Panama, as well as across
    southern Guatemala, far western Honduras, and far northern El
    Salvador. Currently, heavy rainfall is ongoing over western
    Jamaica and into central and eastern Cuba. Heavy rainfall in these
    regions will raise concerns for life- threatening flash flooding
    and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as
    the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more
    information.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 32W/33W from
    05N to 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
    convection is noted with this wave.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 22N46W to
    07N50W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered to numerous
    showers and thunderstorms are active on the northern end of this
    tropical wave from 22N to 23N between 44W and 47W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
    13N17W southwestward to 11N25W. Segments of the ITCZ axis extend
    from 11N25W to 10N30W, from 10N33W to 08N48W, and from 07N51W to
    06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 14N
    between 20W and 25W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A very weak pressure gradient, anchored by 1013 mb high pressure
    off Panama City, Florida, prevails across the area generating
    light to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper-
    level trough over the eastern Gulf is supporting scattered
    showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Florida Straits, along
    an associated surface trough. A few showers and thunderstorms over
    the southwest Gulf under divergent flow aloft.

    For the forecast, a very weak pressure gradient will force gentle to
    moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. A vigorous upper-
    level low will promote scattered showers and thunderstorms over
    the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next two
    days. A cold front should dip into the NE Gulf Thu night and Fri,
    accompanied with little to no increase in the winds.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    As described above in the Special Features section, large areas
    of showers and thunderstorms continue to move northward across
    Jamaica and into western Cuba. This activity is due to abundant
    tropical moisture and divergent flow aloft on the southeast side
    of an upper trough extending from eastern Gulf to the Yucatan
    Channel. Isolated pockets of showers and thunderstorms are noted
    elsewhere across the western Caribbean. Outside of convection, a
    weak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate to fresh
    trades along with moderate seas remain east of 80W. Light to
    gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 80W.

    For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient between high pressure north
    of the area to the Colombian Low is forcing only moderate to
    fresh trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several
    days. A vigorous upper-level low is forcing scattered to numerous
    showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for at least the
    next two days.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    For awareness, Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 33.1N 32.2W at
    21/2100 UTC or 390 nm SW of the Azores, moving SSW at 3 kt.
    Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
    wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Please visit
    hurricanes.gov for more info on Tropical Storm Fay.

    A broad upper-level trough extends from the eastern Gulf with a
    smaller lobe over Georgia and northeast Florida. Divergent flow
    aloft east of the trough and ample deep layer moisture are
    supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms across the
    Bahamas and between the Bahamas and Bermuda west of 65W. Dry,
    subsident conditions prevail between 50W and 65W, except for a
    small area of thunderstorms northeast of Barbados near 16N56W, along
    a persistent surface trough. Another upper low is center farther
    east near 26N49W, supporting an area of showers and thunderstorms
    near from 22N to 23N between 44W and 47W on the northern end of a
    tropical wave. Mostly dry conditions are noted elsewhere. Outside
    of convection, a rather weak pressure gradient across much of the
    Atlantic supports mostly gentle to moderate trades. Seas of 3 to
    6 ft are occurring with these trades.

    For the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda-
    Azores High and lower pressure over the ITCZ is promoting gentle
    to moderate trades across forecast waters through Wed night. A
    vigorous upper-level low will continue to produce scattered
    showers and thunderstorms west of 65W for at least the next couple
    of days. A cold front will emerge from the SE United States coast
    late Wed night and extend from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas Fri
    morning and from 31N69W to the central Bahamas Sat morning. Fresh
    to strong N winds and increasing seas will follow the front on Thu
    and Fri, before diminishing on Sat.

    Meanwhile, farther to the northeast, Fay will weaken to a
    tropical depression near 31.6N 34.1W Tue morning, then become a
    remnant low and move to 30.7N 36.0W by Tue evening. Winds and seas
    near the remnant low will diminish as it moves to 30.1N 37.8W Wed
    morning, 29.7N 39.6W Wed evening, 29.5N 41.2W Thu morning, and
    29.5N 42.5W Thu evening. The remnant low of Fay will change little
    in intensity as it moves to 29.5N 44.3W by late Fri.

    $$
    Christensen
Active Tropical Systems
  • Tue, 22 Sep 2026 03:22:51 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Graphics - NHC Atlantic


    Tropical Storm Fay 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2026 03:22:51 GMT
  • Tue, 22 Sep 2026 02:33:45 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026
    000
    FONT11 KNHC 220233
    PWSAT1
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11              
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062026               
    0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026                                            
                                                                        
    AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
    32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
    35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER ADAMS
  • Tue, 22 Sep 2026 02:33:44 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 11 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026
    000
    WTNT41 KNHC 220233
    TCDAT1
     
    Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  11
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
    300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026
     
    Fay is feeling the effects of strong west-northwesterly wind shear 
    tonight. Nearly all of the convection is displaced well to the east 
    of the fully exposed low-level center, and low-level water vapor 
    imagery shows dry air enveloping much of the system. Recent 
    objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased 
    over the past several hours and range from 25-38 kt. Based on the 
    degraded satellite presentation and the downward trend in intensity 
    estimates, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory. 
     
    The tropical storm is moving southwestward, or 215/07 kt, along the 
    southeastern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge centered west of 
    the system. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest and then west 
    is expected over the next few days as the ridge strengthens and 
    expands eastward across the central Atlantic. The official NHC track 
    forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and remains close 
    to the HCCA solution. 
    
    Continued weakening is expected on Tuesday as dry mid-level air 
    wraps around the periphery of Fay. In fact, simulated satellite 
    imagery from the ECMWF and GFS suggests that Fay may struggle to 
    maintain organized convection as early as Tuesday, and the system 
    could become post-tropical by that time. However, the strong 
    upper-level trough currently producing significant wind shear over 
    the region is forecast to lift away from Fay over the next day or 
    so, while the cyclone may move over slightly warmer waters in the 
    coming days. These changes could briefly allow for some shallow 
    convection to redevelop around midweek, although any such resurgence 
    is expected to be short-lived. Given the overall unfavorable 
    environment and anticipated weakening, the latest NHC forecast shows 
    Fay becoming a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday night. 
     
     
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
     
    INIT  22/0300Z 32.3N  33.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
     12H  22/1200Z 31.6N  34.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
     24H  23/0000Z 30.7N  36.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     36H  23/1200Z 30.1N  37.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     48H  24/0000Z 29.7N  39.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     60H  24/1200Z 29.5N  41.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     72H  25/0000Z 29.5N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     96H  26/0000Z 29.5N  44.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    120H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
     
    $$
    Forecaster Adams
  • Tue, 22 Sep 2026 02:33:14 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 11 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026
    000
    WTNT21 KNHC 220233
    TCMAT1
     
    TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062026
    0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026
     
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N  33.1W AT 22/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT   7 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
    34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
    4 M SEAS.... 60NE   0SE  30SW  90NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N  33.1W AT 22/0300Z
    AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N  32.7W
     
    FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.6N  34.1W
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
     
    FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.7N  36.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
     
    FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.1N  37.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
     
    FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.7N  39.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
     
    FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.5N  41.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
     
    FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N  42.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
     
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 29.5N  44.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N  33.1W
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER ADAMS
  • Tue, 22 Sep 2026 02:33:14 +0000: Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 11 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026
    000
    WTNT31 KNHC 220233
    TCPAT1
     
    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number  11
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
    300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026
     
    ...FAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
     
     
    SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...32.3N 33.1W
    ABOUT 525 MI...840 KM SW OF THE AZORES
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
     
     
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
     
     
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was 
    located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 33.1 West. Fay is moving 
    toward the southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn toward the 
    west-southwest then west is expected through midweek. 
     
    Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with 
    higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Fay is likely to 
    degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by late Tuesday.
     
    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
    from the center.
     
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
     
     
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.
     
     
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.
     
    $$
    Forecaster Adams
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
  • Mon, 21 Sep 2026 16:12:07 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
    953
    NOUS42 KNHC 211612
    REPRPD
    WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
    CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
    1215 PM EDT MON 21 SEPTEMBER 2026
    SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
    VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2026
    TCPOD NUMBER.....26-113 CORRECTION

    I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM POLO
    FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42
    A. 22/1800Z
    B. NOAA2 0217E POLO (CORRECTION)
    C. 22/1300Z
    D. 15.3N 102.3W
    E. 22/1700Z TO 22/2000Z
    F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
    G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
    H. NO WRA ACTIVATION

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
    A. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO TROPICAL
    STORM POLO FOR 23/1800Z.
    B. POSSIBLE FIX MISSION INTO TROPICAL STORM POLO NEAR 17.2N
    104.2W FOR 24/0600Z.

    3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE MISSION INTO THE REMNANTS OF
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E NEAR 16.5N 154.5W FOR 25/0600Z.

    4. REMARKS:
    A. DURING THE NOAA 42 MISSION TASKED FOR THE 22/1800Z
    SYNOPTIC TIME, TWO SMALL UAS ARE PLANNED FOR RELEASE
    WITHIN THE STORM ENVIRONMENT. THEY WILL OPERATE AT OR BELOW
    5,000 FT FOR ABOUT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
    B. NOAA 43 WILL CONDUCT A 8-HOUR RESEARCH MISSION INTO
    TROPICAL STORM POLO ON TUESDAY, DEPARTING KHRL AT 22/1500Z.

    $$
    KAL

    NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
  • Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf
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