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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Mon, 12 Oct 2026 17:36:15 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 121736
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Oct 12 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated and is now
analyzed along 30W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10 kt. A
1009 mb low pressure is analyzed near the wave axis at 17N30W.
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is present from
11N to 23N and between 22W and 34W. Scatterometer data from 1209
UTC indicate a large swath of fresh to strong winds associated
with this system from 15N to 23N between 25W and 35W. Seas are
6-10 ft in the area described. Environmental conditions appear, at
best, marginally conducive for any development of this system
during the next day or two before upper-level winds become too
strong for any further development. Regardless, heavy rainfall is
expected over the couple of days for portions of the Cabo Verde
Islands as the system moves slowly northward to north-
northwestward. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone
development in the next 48 hours, and also through next 7 days.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 04N44W to
19N42W, moving westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 08N to 12N and between 39W and 45W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W, and then curves to 08N20W, then to a 1009 mb low near
17N30W, then to 05.5N51W. Aside from the convection described
above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 08N to 11N between 31N and 37W, while
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also occurring
along and within 100 nm of the monsoon trough E of 21W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends from near Naples, FL to 23N90W to
25N94W, where it becomes a warm front that extends to the TX coast
near 27N97W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
near the frontal boundary. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are
also evident in the western Bay of Campeche near a surface trough.
Otherwise, surface ridging across the basin supports moderate to
locally fresh winds and seas of 2-5 ft across the Gulf.
For the forecast, a stationary front extending from near Naples,
Florida to 23N90W to 25N94W will dissipate through Wed. High
pressure building in the wake of the front over the north-central
Gulf will support E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida
Straits to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas
elsewhere. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NE winds and building
seas will follow a front moving into the northwest Gulf Fri night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper-level low over the central Caribbean along with a surface
trough near 72W support scattered moderate convection across areas
S of 15N between 66W and 75W. In the SW Caribbean, the East
Pacific monsoon trough supports scattered moderate convection S of
11N and W of 75W. A tighter pressure gradient due to a strong
subtropical ridge over the NW Atlantic and lower pressures in
northern South America forces fresh to strong E winds and seas of
6-8 ft across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and
moderate seas are evident in the rest of the central and eastern
Caribbean, along with the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail.
For the forecast, fresh winds and rough seas across the central
south- Caribbean will diminish through tonight as high pressure
north of the region shifts eastward. Moderate to fresh E to SE
winds and moderate seas will persist thereafter across the
Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 31N75W to 29N78W, then becomes
stationary from that point to the FL coast near Port Saint Lucie.
A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along and just
ahead of the boundary. Moderate to fresh W winds and seas of 5-7
ft are seen N of 28N and W of 74W. Farther east, another
stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N34W and
continues southwestward to 24N55W and then to 26N69W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are present along the front
from 25N50W north and eastward. NE winds north of the front
quickly increase to fresh to strong speeds, and also support seas
of 6-10 ft in N swell N of the front.
Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between these fronts, deep
tropics and a strong high pressure in the NW Atlantic sustain
moderate to fresh trades winds and moderate seas across much of
the SW North Atlantic S of 23N, away from any aforementioned
features or tropical waves. Moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft
seas prevail across the remainder of the Atlantic.
For the forecast west of 55W, a few thunderstorms are active
along a cold front reaching from 31N75W to Fort Pierce, Florida.
The front will generally stall from Bermuda to Miami Tue, then
dissipate through Wed. A second front will move southward into the
waters east of 75W Tue into Wed, then stall and dissipate along
29N through Thu. Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the
waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat
morning.
$$
Adams
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Mon, 12 Oct 2026 17:36:15 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 121736
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Oct 12 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated and is now
analyzed along 30W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10 kt. A
1009 mb low pressure is analyzed near the wave axis at 17N30W.
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is present from
11N to 23N and between 22W and 34W. Scatterometer data from 1209
UTC indicate a large swath of fresh to strong winds associated
with this system from 15N to 23N between 25W and 35W. Seas are
6-10 ft in the area described. Environmental conditions appear, at
best, marginally conducive for any development of this system
during the next day or two before upper-level winds become too
strong for any further development. Regardless, heavy rainfall is
expected over the couple of days for portions of the Cabo Verde
Islands as the system moves slowly northward to north-
northwestward. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone
development in the next 48 hours, and also through next 7 days.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 04N44W to
19N42W, moving westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 08N to 12N and between 39W and 45W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W, and then curves to 08N20W, then to a 1009 mb low near
17N30W, then to 05.5N51W. Aside from the convection described
above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 08N to 11N between 31N and 37W, while
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also occurring
along and within 100 nm of the monsoon trough E of 21W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends from near Naples, FL to 23N90W to
25N94W, where it becomes a warm front that extends to the TX coast
near 27N97W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
near the frontal boundary. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are
also evident in the western Bay of Campeche near a surface trough.
Otherwise, surface ridging across the basin supports moderate to
locally fresh winds and seas of 2-5 ft across the Gulf.
For the forecast, a stationary front extending from near Naples,
Florida to 23N90W to 25N94W will dissipate through Wed. High
pressure building in the wake of the front over the north-central
Gulf will support E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida
Straits to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas
elsewhere. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NE winds and building
seas will follow a front moving into the northwest Gulf Fri night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper-level low over the central Caribbean along with a surface
trough near 72W support scattered moderate convection across areas
S of 15N between 66W and 75W. In the SW Caribbean, the East
Pacific monsoon trough supports scattered moderate convection S of
11N and W of 75W. A tighter pressure gradient due to a strong
subtropical ridge over the NW Atlantic and lower pressures in
northern South America forces fresh to strong E winds and seas of
6-8 ft across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and
moderate seas are evident in the rest of the central and eastern
Caribbean, along with the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail.
For the forecast, fresh winds and rough seas across the central
south- Caribbean will diminish through tonight as high pressure
north of the region shifts eastward. Moderate to fresh E to SE
winds and moderate seas will persist thereafter across the
Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 31N75W to 29N78W, then becomes
stationary from that point to the FL coast near Port Saint Lucie.
A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along and just
ahead of the boundary. Moderate to fresh W winds and seas of 5-7
ft are seen N of 28N and W of 74W. Farther east, another
stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N34W and
continues southwestward to 24N55W and then to 26N69W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are present along the front
from 25N50W north and eastward. NE winds north of the front
quickly increase to fresh to strong speeds, and also support seas
of 6-10 ft in N swell N of the front.
Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between these fronts, deep
tropics and a strong high pressure in the NW Atlantic sustain
moderate to fresh trades winds and moderate seas across much of
the SW North Atlantic S of 23N, away from any aforementioned
features or tropical waves. Moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft
seas prevail across the remainder of the Atlantic.
For the forecast west of 55W, a few thunderstorms are active
along a cold front reaching from 31N75W to Fort Pierce, Florida.
The front will generally stall from Bermuda to Miami Tue, then
dissipate through Wed. A second front will move southward into the
waters east of 75W Tue into Wed, then stall and dissipate along
29N through Thu. Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the
waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat
morning.
$$
Adams
Active Tropical Systems
- Wed, 14 Oct 2026 05:03:28 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 12 Oct 2026 20:51:33 GMT - Mon, 12 Oct 2026 17:03:28 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121703
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles west
of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large but
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms occurring on its east
side, extending toward the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear, at best, only marginally conducive
for development of this system during the next day or so before
upper-level winds become too strong for any further development on
Tuesday. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected to continue for the
next day or two across western portions of the Cabo Verde Islands,
and some flooding is possible there as the system moves slowly
northward to north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Mon, 12 Oct 2026 14:44:53 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
445
NOUS42 KNHC 121444
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 12 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-134
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX OF HURRICANE SIMON FOR
14/2000Z.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf