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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Wed, 16 Sep 2026 04:25:06 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 160421
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Sep 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 21W, south of 18N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N
to 12N and between 18W and 26W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W, south of 20N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N
to 21N and between 54W and 61W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N16W and continues
to 09N44W. The ITCZ extends from 09N44W to 11N55W. Aside from
convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered
moderate convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the
boundaries between 28W and 46W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends from Hernando Beach, Florida to Fort
Walton Beach, Florida. A pressure gradient prevails elsewhere
over the gulf waters. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, the stationary front will weaken over the next
couple of days as it slowly drifts southward and dissipates by
Thu. A strong ridge over the Eastern United States will support
fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and rough seas starting in the
NE Gulf late tonight and spreading over the rest of the northern
Gulf waters through Thu night. Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will
move westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through
Thu night, bringing nightly pulses of fresh to locally strong NE
winds. Conditions will improve across the basin Fri, allowing for
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas during the
weekend.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Fresh to near gale E winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail
over the south central Caribbean. Gentle winds and slight seas are
over the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate
seas, prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pressure will continue to support fresh to
locally near gale-force easterly trade winds and moderate to rough
seas across much of the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh
trades elsewhere from 11N to 18N. These conditions will persist
through the workweek. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and
slight to moderate seas are expected, except moderate to fresh
mainly in the evenings near the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba
through Wed night. Winds will diminish across the basin by the end
of the week into the upcoming weekend as the pressures gradient
relaxes, with seas also slightly subsiding.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to Cape Canaveral,
Florida. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and moderate seas,
prevail N of the front. A surface trough extends from 30N52W to
26N51W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the
trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion
waters N of 20N. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas, prevail N
of 22N and W of 55W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas
are found elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will shift
southward over the next couple of days and dissipate by Thu. A
tight pressure gradient between the building ridge over the
eastern United States and the front will result in fresh to
locally strong NE winds and seas to build to rough N of the
Bahamas and W of 70W through early Thu. Conditions will improve
later Thu into Fri. Meanwhile, a broad upper-level trough over the
SE Bahamas and Hispaniola will support scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over much of the area over the next few
days as the system shifts northwestward.
$$
ERA
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Wed, 16 Sep 2026 04:25:06 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 160421
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Sep 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 21W, south of 18N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N
to 12N and between 18W and 26W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W, south of 20N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N
to 21N and between 54W and 61W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N16W and continues
to 09N44W. The ITCZ extends from 09N44W to 11N55W. Aside from
convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered
moderate convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the
boundaries between 28W and 46W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends from Hernando Beach, Florida to Fort
Walton Beach, Florida. A pressure gradient prevails elsewhere
over the gulf waters. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, the stationary front will weaken over the next
couple of days as it slowly drifts southward and dissipates by
Thu. A strong ridge over the Eastern United States will support
fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and rough seas starting in the
NE Gulf late tonight and spreading over the rest of the northern
Gulf waters through Thu night. Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will
move westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through
Thu night, bringing nightly pulses of fresh to locally strong NE
winds. Conditions will improve across the basin Fri, allowing for
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas during the
weekend.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Fresh to near gale E winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail
over the south central Caribbean. Gentle winds and slight seas are
over the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate
seas, prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pressure will continue to support fresh to
locally near gale-force easterly trade winds and moderate to rough
seas across much of the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh
trades elsewhere from 11N to 18N. These conditions will persist
through the workweek. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and
slight to moderate seas are expected, except moderate to fresh
mainly in the evenings near the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba
through Wed night. Winds will diminish across the basin by the end
of the week into the upcoming weekend as the pressures gradient
relaxes, with seas also slightly subsiding.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to Cape Canaveral,
Florida. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and moderate seas,
prevail N of the front. A surface trough extends from 30N52W to
26N51W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the
trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion
waters N of 20N. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas, prevail N
of 22N and W of 55W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas
are found elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will shift
southward over the next couple of days and dissipate by Thu. A
tight pressure gradient between the building ridge over the
eastern United States and the front will result in fresh to
locally strong NE winds and seas to build to rough N of the
Bahamas and W of 70W through early Thu. Conditions will improve
later Thu into Fri. Meanwhile, a broad upper-level trough over the
SE Bahamas and Hispaniola will support scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over much of the area over the next few
days as the system shifts northwestward.
$$
ERA
Active Tropical Systems
- Thu, 17 Sep 2026 17:01:14 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 16 Sep 2026 07:46:24 GMT - Wed, 16 Sep 2026 05:01:14 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 160501
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located about 600 miles east of Bermuda
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
development in a couple of days while the system moves slowly
westward to west-northwestward over the subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Tue, 15 Sep 2026 13:01:06 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 151259
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT TUE 15 SEPTEMBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-107
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf