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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Wed, 14 Oct 2026 23:23:25 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 142323
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 45W from 10N
to 18N, moving westward near 10 kt. No significant convection is
noted near the wave.
An Atlantic tropical wave is along a position 57W, S of 20N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 150 nm east of
the wave from 10N to 12N.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and
extends to 06.5N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues on to 04.5N35W to near 08N56W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 02.5N to 09.5N between 21W and
41W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A high pressure ridge extends from a 1020 mb high center that
is over the southeastern U.S. southwestward to the western Gulf,
while an old frontal boundary extends from the Straits of Florida
to just N of the Yucatan Channel, where a few clusters of showers
are present. Recent satellite scatterometer data along with buoy
observations reveal mostly moderate east winds south of 28N and
east of 91W, and moderate to fresh east to southeast winds west of
91W. Light to gentle winds east to southeast winds are elsewhere.
Seas are in the range of 3 to 5 ft, except for slightly lower
seas of 1 to 3 ft over the northern Gulf.
For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf region
through Fri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and
slight to moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the
northwest Gulf late Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the
central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and
moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales possible
over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW
Gulf by Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with
the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over
the SW Gulf trough Sun.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A mid-level low located south-southwest over the NW Caribbean and
Yucatan Channel continues to sustain scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the waters from Cuba southward to the
Gulf of Honduras, while a mid to upper- level low over the
central Caribbean continues to support scattered showers and
thunderstorms over Hispaniola and the central Caribbean waters
between 69 W and 79W. Latest satellite scatterometer data reveals
a wide swath of fresh to strong east to southeast winds over the
waters southwest of Haiti roughly from 14N to 18N between 72W and
77W. A weak low of 1010 mb is analyzed in the southwestern
Caribbean near 12.5N80W. A trough extends from the low northward
to just southwest of Jamaica. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are seen from 11N to 17N between 75W and 79W. Moderate to fresh
trade winds prevail across central and west-central portions of
the basin between 69W and 81W, to the north and northeast of the
western Caribbean low pressure. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this region.
Elsewhere moderate or weaker trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft
prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure N of area will combine with the
Colombian low to support moderate to fresh trade winds offshore
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the upcoming
weekend, with locally rough seas offshore Colombia. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.
Moisture associated with an uper-level trough over the central
Caribbean will reach the NW Caribbean on Thu, keeping the chances
of showers and thunderstorms across the basin. Gusty winds and
locally rough seas will be associated with this convective
activity.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Surface ridging anchored by a 1020 mb in northern Alabama reaches
southward and southeastern to across the waters just north of the
Bahamas and to 65W. A trough, an old frontal boundary, extends
from 31N61W, to 28N70W, to the central Bahamas and to the Straits
of Florida. Scattered showers are within 90 nm west of 65W. To
the east, a 1015 mb low is centered near 25N67W, with a trough
extending northeastward to 31N58W. An area of scattered moderate
convection is evident within 75 nm of the low. This activity is
ahead of an upper shortwave trough that is approaching from the
NW.
Over the eastern Atlantic, a weak 1012 mb low is near 21N36W as
detected in recent satellite scatterometer satellite data. A
trough extends from the low north-northwestward to 28N40W. A
small mid to upper-level low moving west-southwestward is seen in
water vapor imagery near 25N41W while a larger upper-level low
moving westward is seen near 19N51W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted from 22N to 27N between 30W and the
trough. A tight gradient between the trough and high pressure to
its north has resulted in an area of fresh to strong east to
southeast winds that covers the water roughly from 20N to 27N
between 29W and 36W. Seas are in the range of 8 to 11 ft within
this area of winds. The remainder subtropical central and eastern
Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores High, which is
generally supporting moderate to fresh northeast winds and
moderate seas to 7 ft between the coast of NW Africa and 24W,
including the waters adjacent to the Canary Islands. Moderate or
weaker winds along with slight to moderate seas are elsewhere
north of 20N and west of 24W.
For the forecast west of 55W, a band of showers and a few thunderstorms,
associated with an old frontal boundary, extends from 28N68W
across the NW Bahamas and SE Florida into the Straits of Florida.
Moisture and associated weather with this feature will move
northward through at least Thu. A cold front will reach the NE
waters on Fri with little change in winds and seas. A stronger
cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late
Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda to
South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and
rough seas will follow the front.
$$
Stripling
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Wed, 14 Oct 2026 23:23:25 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 142323
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 45W from 10N
to 18N, moving westward near 10 kt. No significant convection is
noted near the wave.
An Atlantic tropical wave is along a position 57W, S of 20N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 150 nm east of
the wave from 10N to 12N.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and
extends to 06.5N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues on to 04.5N35W to near 08N56W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 02.5N to 09.5N between 21W and
41W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A high pressure ridge extends from a 1020 mb high center that
is over the southeastern U.S. southwestward to the western Gulf,
while an old frontal boundary extends from the Straits of Florida
to just N of the Yucatan Channel, where a few clusters of showers
are present. Recent satellite scatterometer data along with buoy
observations reveal mostly moderate east winds south of 28N and
east of 91W, and moderate to fresh east to southeast winds west of
91W. Light to gentle winds east to southeast winds are elsewhere.
Seas are in the range of 3 to 5 ft, except for slightly lower
seas of 1 to 3 ft over the northern Gulf.
For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf region
through Fri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and
slight to moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the
northwest Gulf late Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the
central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and
moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales possible
over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW
Gulf by Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with
the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over
the SW Gulf trough Sun.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A mid-level low located south-southwest over the NW Caribbean and
Yucatan Channel continues to sustain scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the waters from Cuba southward to the
Gulf of Honduras, while a mid to upper- level low over the
central Caribbean continues to support scattered showers and
thunderstorms over Hispaniola and the central Caribbean waters
between 69 W and 79W. Latest satellite scatterometer data reveals
a wide swath of fresh to strong east to southeast winds over the
waters southwest of Haiti roughly from 14N to 18N between 72W and
77W. A weak low of 1010 mb is analyzed in the southwestern
Caribbean near 12.5N80W. A trough extends from the low northward
to just southwest of Jamaica. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are seen from 11N to 17N between 75W and 79W. Moderate to fresh
trade winds prevail across central and west-central portions of
the basin between 69W and 81W, to the north and northeast of the
western Caribbean low pressure. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this region.
Elsewhere moderate or weaker trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft
prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure N of area will combine with the
Colombian low to support moderate to fresh trade winds offshore
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the upcoming
weekend, with locally rough seas offshore Colombia. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.
Moisture associated with an uper-level trough over the central
Caribbean will reach the NW Caribbean on Thu, keeping the chances
of showers and thunderstorms across the basin. Gusty winds and
locally rough seas will be associated with this convective
activity.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Surface ridging anchored by a 1020 mb in northern Alabama reaches
southward and southeastern to across the waters just north of the
Bahamas and to 65W. A trough, an old frontal boundary, extends
from 31N61W, to 28N70W, to the central Bahamas and to the Straits
of Florida. Scattered showers are within 90 nm west of 65W. To
the east, a 1015 mb low is centered near 25N67W, with a trough
extending northeastward to 31N58W. An area of scattered moderate
convection is evident within 75 nm of the low. This activity is
ahead of an upper shortwave trough that is approaching from the
NW.
Over the eastern Atlantic, a weak 1012 mb low is near 21N36W as
detected in recent satellite scatterometer satellite data. A
trough extends from the low north-northwestward to 28N40W. A
small mid to upper-level low moving west-southwestward is seen in
water vapor imagery near 25N41W while a larger upper-level low
moving westward is seen near 19N51W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted from 22N to 27N between 30W and the
trough. A tight gradient between the trough and high pressure to
its north has resulted in an area of fresh to strong east to
southeast winds that covers the water roughly from 20N to 27N
between 29W and 36W. Seas are in the range of 8 to 11 ft within
this area of winds. The remainder subtropical central and eastern
Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores High, which is
generally supporting moderate to fresh northeast winds and
moderate seas to 7 ft between the coast of NW Africa and 24W,
including the waters adjacent to the Canary Islands. Moderate or
weaker winds along with slight to moderate seas are elsewhere
north of 20N and west of 24W.
For the forecast west of 55W, a band of showers and a few thunderstorms,
associated with an old frontal boundary, extends from 28N68W
across the NW Bahamas and SE Florida into the Straits of Florida.
Moisture and associated weather with this feature will move
northward through at least Thu. A cold front will reach the NE
waters on Fri with little change in winds and seas. A stronger
cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late
Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda to
South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and
rough seas will follow the front.
$$
Stripling
Active Tropical Systems
- Fri, 16 Oct 2026 11:02:27 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 15 Oct 2026 03:45:47 GMT - Wed, 14 Oct 2026 23:02:27 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
003
ABNT20 KNHC 142302
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Wed, 14 Oct 2026 16:05:23 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
104
NOUS42 KNHC 141605
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1205 PM EDT WED 14 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-136
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM TRUDY
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72
A. 15/1730Z
B. AFXXX 0121E TRUDY
C. 15/1245Z
D. 13.3N 101.4W
E. 15/1700Z TO 15/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX MISSION INTO TRUDY FOR
16/1730Z.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf