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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sat, 22 Aug 2026 03:26:04 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
078
AXNT20 KNHC 220325
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Aug 22 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 23W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 24N
between 22W and 27W.
A second tropical wave is along n eastern Atlantic tropical wave
has its axis along 45W south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20
kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis.
A third tropical wave has its axis along 56W south of 20N moving
westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted near
the wave axis.
A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean along 79W south of
20N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Convection is limited near
the wave axis.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 11N54W. The ITCZ
extends from 10N46W to 11N54W. Outside of convection associated
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within
200 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 34W and 40W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
High pressure continues to dominate the Gulf region with a 1017 mb
center near 24N89W. This pattern is supporting mainly light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas. The highest seas of 3
ft are noted over the Bay of Campeche based on altimeter data.
Convection has flared-up over parts of Florida, the north-central
Gulf, and along the coast of Mexico roughly between Tuxpan and
Veracruz. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this
convective activity.
For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the
central Gulf will prevail into the middle of next week,
supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally
moderate seas. A surface trough will generate fresh to strong
winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early
evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula
at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A tropical wave is moving across the western half of the basin.
Refer to the section above for details.
The pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered S of
Bermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting
fresh to strong trades over the most of the central Caribbean,
with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, with the exception of
gentle winds over the NW part of the basin. Seas are moderate,
except 7 to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean and slight seas
over the northwest Caribbean. Shallow moisture embedded in the
trade winds flow is moving across the region producing isolated to
scattered passing showers.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to sustain
fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the south-
central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail over most of the rest
of the basin, aside from the northwest basin where lesser winds
will dominate. A tropical wave currently over the tropical
Atlantic is expected to move across the eastern Caribbean Tue
through early Wed, and across the eastern part of the central
Caribbean during the rest of Wed. Another tropical wave may
approach the Lesser Antilles and far eastern Caribbean late on
Wed. These waves will enhance the trade wind flow across those
waters.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Three tropical wave are moving westward between W Africa and the
Lesser Antilles. See the Tropical Waves section above for
details.
A trough is analyzed over Florida, reaching the W Atlantic from
29N78W to 27N80W. To the E, a 1021 mb high is centered near
26N72W. A weak 1018 mb low is centered east-southeast of Bermuda
near 30N56W. A surface trough extends from the low center to
24N64W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near these
features. A surface through is analyzed from 28N39W to 22N43W with
scattered showers. Elsewhere west of 55W, the subtropical ridge
dominates, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure between Bermuda and
the central Bahamas near 25N67W. Fresh E to SE winds are funneling
along the north coast of Hispaniola south of the ridge,
supporting 3 to 5 ft seas. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast
region is under the influence of a ridge with a 1028 mb high
pressure located SW of the Azores near 35N37W. This system
supports moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft,
except fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas off the
coasts of Mauritania and Senegal.
For the forecast west of 55W, the weak pressure gradient will
support mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters north
of 23N into early next week. Moderate to fresh trades are
expected south of about 23N, highest off northern Hispaniola,
through the period. These trades may pulse to fresh to strong
speeds off northern Hispaniola at night through most of the
forecast period. Meanwhile, the northern portion of a tropical
wave is expected to move across the waters S of about 23N and E of
the Bahamas next week freshening the trade winds. Yet, the
northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE
portion of the area Wed and Wed night increasing the trades over
those waters.
$$
ERA
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sat, 22 Aug 2026 03:26:04 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
078
AXNT20 KNHC 220325
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Aug 22 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 23W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 24N
between 22W and 27W.
A second tropical wave is along n eastern Atlantic tropical wave
has its axis along 45W south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20
kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis.
A third tropical wave has its axis along 56W south of 20N moving
westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted near
the wave axis.
A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean along 79W south of
20N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Convection is limited near
the wave axis.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 11N54W. The ITCZ
extends from 10N46W to 11N54W. Outside of convection associated
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within
200 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 34W and 40W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
High pressure continues to dominate the Gulf region with a 1017 mb
center near 24N89W. This pattern is supporting mainly light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas. The highest seas of 3
ft are noted over the Bay of Campeche based on altimeter data.
Convection has flared-up over parts of Florida, the north-central
Gulf, and along the coast of Mexico roughly between Tuxpan and
Veracruz. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this
convective activity.
For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the
central Gulf will prevail into the middle of next week,
supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally
moderate seas. A surface trough will generate fresh to strong
winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early
evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula
at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A tropical wave is moving across the western half of the basin.
Refer to the section above for details.
The pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered S of
Bermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting
fresh to strong trades over the most of the central Caribbean,
with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, with the exception of
gentle winds over the NW part of the basin. Seas are moderate,
except 7 to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean and slight seas
over the northwest Caribbean. Shallow moisture embedded in the
trade winds flow is moving across the region producing isolated to
scattered passing showers.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to sustain
fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the south-
central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail over most of the rest
of the basin, aside from the northwest basin where lesser winds
will dominate. A tropical wave currently over the tropical
Atlantic is expected to move across the eastern Caribbean Tue
through early Wed, and across the eastern part of the central
Caribbean during the rest of Wed. Another tropical wave may
approach the Lesser Antilles and far eastern Caribbean late on
Wed. These waves will enhance the trade wind flow across those
waters.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Three tropical wave are moving westward between W Africa and the
Lesser Antilles. See the Tropical Waves section above for
details.
A trough is analyzed over Florida, reaching the W Atlantic from
29N78W to 27N80W. To the E, a 1021 mb high is centered near
26N72W. A weak 1018 mb low is centered east-southeast of Bermuda
near 30N56W. A surface trough extends from the low center to
24N64W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near these
features. A surface through is analyzed from 28N39W to 22N43W with
scattered showers. Elsewhere west of 55W, the subtropical ridge
dominates, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure between Bermuda and
the central Bahamas near 25N67W. Fresh E to SE winds are funneling
along the north coast of Hispaniola south of the ridge,
supporting 3 to 5 ft seas. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast
region is under the influence of a ridge with a 1028 mb high
pressure located SW of the Azores near 35N37W. This system
supports moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft,
except fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas off the
coasts of Mauritania and Senegal.
For the forecast west of 55W, the weak pressure gradient will
support mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters north
of 23N into early next week. Moderate to fresh trades are
expected south of about 23N, highest off northern Hispaniola,
through the period. These trades may pulse to fresh to strong
speeds off northern Hispaniola at night through most of the
forecast period. Meanwhile, the northern portion of a tropical
wave is expected to move across the waters S of about 23N and E of
the Bahamas next week freshening the trade winds. Yet, the
northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE
portion of the area Wed and Wed night increasing the trades over
those waters.
$$
ERA
Active Tropical Systems
- Sun, 23 Aug 2026 11:35:05 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 22 Aug 2026 04:27:22 GMT - Fri, 21 Aug 2026 23:35:05 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 212334
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northeastern Atlantic:
A strong non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the
northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles northeast of the
Azores. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics on Saturday or early Sunday while it moves
east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern
Spain. The opportunity for tropical or subtropical development
should end by Sunday night when the system moves into unfavorable
environmental conditions. For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A weak area of low pressure located over the central subtropical
Atlantic a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda is producing
an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of
this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts
west-southwestward through Sunday and then turns northward early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the African coast
early next week. A low pressure area may subsequently form in
association with the wave as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at
https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt
$$
Forecaster Beven
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Fri, 21 Aug 2026 16:12:00 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 211611
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 PM EDT FRI 21 AUGUST 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUGUST 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-082
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 79 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 42
A. 22/1730Z,2330Z A. 23/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0402C CYCLONE B. NOAA2 0502C CYCLONE
C. 22/1500Z C. 22/2000Z
D. 15.1N 150.2W D. 15.4N 151.3W
E. 22/1700Z TO 22/2330Z E. 22/2130Z TO 23/0230Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. FIX G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION
FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 77
A. 23/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 0602C CYCLONE
C. 23/0330Z
D. 15.7N 152.3W
E. 23/0500Z TO 23/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO TD 2-C
FOR 24/0000Z, DEPARTING PHJR AT 23/2000Z.
3. REMARKS:
A. NO SMALL UAS RELEASES ARE PLANNED DURING THE NOAA 42
MISSION TASKED IN TCPOD 26-081 FOR THE 22/0000Z SYNOPTIC
TIME.
B. DURING THE NOAA 42 MISSION TASKED FOR THE 23/0000Z
SYNOPTIC TIME, TWO SMALL UAS ARE PLANNED FOR RELEASE
WITHIN THE WRA. THEY WILL OPERATE AT OR BELOW 5,000 FT FOR
ABOUT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf