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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:11:00 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 152010
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Northwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL90): A trough of low
pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development is not
expected during the next day or so while the trough remains
inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern
Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental
conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a
short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across
southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and
Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over
the next several days which could produce widespread, life-
threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and
coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the
northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings
could be required on Tue. Additional information on this system
can be found in products issued by your local National Weather
Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages. This area has a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.
Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers ABNT20
KNHC/TWOAT or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for further details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 22W, south of
18N just east of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving westward at
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N
to 11N between 13W and 24W.
An Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 16N, moving
westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 03N to 09N and between 34W and 41W.
An Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 18N to Suriname,
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is present from 07N to 10N between 51W and 62W.
A Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 20N or Hispaniola
to portions of far NW Venezuela and eastern Colombia, moving
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen over the
waters south of 16N in the south-central Caribbean with deep
convection present and enhanced over portions of Venezuela and
Colombia.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 07N33W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N33W to 06N40W and then resumes from 05.5N42.5W
to 07N55W. In addition to convection described above in the
TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is found
from 05N to 08N between 45W and 49W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the potential for tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of
America.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring along and near
the coasts of NE Mexico, Texas, and SW Louisiana with a frontal
boundary inland over Texas and Mexico, as well as multiple surface
troughs analyzed inland. The tightening pressure gradient between
these troughs and a subtropical ridge stemming from the Atlantic
support moderate to locally fresh SE winds and in the W Gulf, as
well as in the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas in the Gulf range from 1-2 E of 90W, except to 4
ft near the Yucatan Channel, and 3-5 ft W of 90W.
For the forecast, a trough with weak low pressure along it is
inland northeastern Mexico. It will slowly move northward during
the next couple of days. It is then forecast to move northeastward
along the Texas coast, and possibly re-emerge over the NW Gulf
late Tue or Wed, at which time environmental conditions may be
marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical
storm Wed into Thu. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected over the NW Gulf through Thu. Otherwise, a tightening
pressure gradient over the area will sustain fresh to strong
southerly winds over the western Gulf early Wed through late Thu
night, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. Winds
begin to diminish Fri as high pressure settles in over the eastern
Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are ongoing in
the far SW Caribbean, near the East Pacific monsoon trough. The
pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and the
Colombia Low supports fresh to strong E winds and rough seas
across much of the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern and NW Caribbean,
except locally strong offshore central Honduras. Gentle to
moderate trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the gradient between broad Atlantic high
pressure and relatively lower pressures south of the Greater
Antilles will sustain a rather extensive area of fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central section of the basin through the
forecast period. The highest of the winds and seas are expected
off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri. Gentle
to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will
become southeast at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough is analyzed from 31N42W to 25N55W to 19N64W,
with scattered moderate convection seen N of 29N between 35W and
50W. Another surface trough is analyzed N of the Bahamas from
31N76W to 27N79W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are N of 27N and E of
the trough to 67W along with 4-6 ft seas. Some scattered showers
are found near the trough. Otherwise, ridging extends and
dominates from 31N28W to 1024 mb high pressure near 29N34W to 1022
mb high pressure near 26N61W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker
across the remainder of the waters W of 35W, except moderate to
fresh S of 22N near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Fresh to strong
N-NE winds are found offshore Africa from 20N to 31N to the E of
20W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are found from this area to
the Lesser Antilles in a belt extending N of the ITCZ where three
Atlantic tropical waves are present as described in detail above.
Seas of 3-6 ft dominate the open tropical Atlantic waters in mixed
NE-E and NW-N swells.
For the forecast west of 55W, broad high pressure over the area
will change little through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night.
The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally
fresh trade winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing some in
coverage beginning Fri night. Moderate to fresh southwest winds
east of northeast Florida to near 74W are ahead of a trough. These
winds will expand eastward to near 67W through Wed, as a weak
frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. It is expected
to move offshore late Fri night and stall offshore northeast
Florida Sat and Sat night. Expect fresh to strong winds each
afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola.
$$
Lewitsky
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:11:00 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 152010
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Northwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL90): A trough of low
pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development is not
expected during the next day or so while the trough remains
inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern
Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental
conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a
short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across
southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and
Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over
the next several days which could produce widespread, life-
threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and
coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the
northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings
could be required on Tue. Additional information on this system
can be found in products issued by your local National Weather
Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages. This area has a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.
Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers ABNT20
KNHC/TWOAT or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for further details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 22W, south of
18N just east of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving westward at
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N
to 11N between 13W and 24W.
An Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 16N, moving
westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 03N to 09N and between 34W and 41W.
An Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 18N to Suriname,
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is present from 07N to 10N between 51W and 62W.
A Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 20N or Hispaniola
to portions of far NW Venezuela and eastern Colombia, moving
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen over the
waters south of 16N in the south-central Caribbean with deep
convection present and enhanced over portions of Venezuela and
Colombia.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 07N33W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N33W to 06N40W and then resumes from 05.5N42.5W
to 07N55W. In addition to convection described above in the
TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is found
from 05N to 08N between 45W and 49W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the potential for tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of
America.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring along and near
the coasts of NE Mexico, Texas, and SW Louisiana with a frontal
boundary inland over Texas and Mexico, as well as multiple surface
troughs analyzed inland. The tightening pressure gradient between
these troughs and a subtropical ridge stemming from the Atlantic
support moderate to locally fresh SE winds and in the W Gulf, as
well as in the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas in the Gulf range from 1-2 E of 90W, except to 4
ft near the Yucatan Channel, and 3-5 ft W of 90W.
For the forecast, a trough with weak low pressure along it is
inland northeastern Mexico. It will slowly move northward during
the next couple of days. It is then forecast to move northeastward
along the Texas coast, and possibly re-emerge over the NW Gulf
late Tue or Wed, at which time environmental conditions may be
marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical
storm Wed into Thu. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected over the NW Gulf through Thu. Otherwise, a tightening
pressure gradient over the area will sustain fresh to strong
southerly winds over the western Gulf early Wed through late Thu
night, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. Winds
begin to diminish Fri as high pressure settles in over the eastern
Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are ongoing in
the far SW Caribbean, near the East Pacific monsoon trough. The
pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and the
Colombia Low supports fresh to strong E winds and rough seas
across much of the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern and NW Caribbean,
except locally strong offshore central Honduras. Gentle to
moderate trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the gradient between broad Atlantic high
pressure and relatively lower pressures south of the Greater
Antilles will sustain a rather extensive area of fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central section of the basin through the
forecast period. The highest of the winds and seas are expected
off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri. Gentle
to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will
become southeast at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough is analyzed from 31N42W to 25N55W to 19N64W,
with scattered moderate convection seen N of 29N between 35W and
50W. Another surface trough is analyzed N of the Bahamas from
31N76W to 27N79W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are N of 27N and E of
the trough to 67W along with 4-6 ft seas. Some scattered showers
are found near the trough. Otherwise, ridging extends and
dominates from 31N28W to 1024 mb high pressure near 29N34W to 1022
mb high pressure near 26N61W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker
across the remainder of the waters W of 35W, except moderate to
fresh S of 22N near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Fresh to strong
N-NE winds are found offshore Africa from 20N to 31N to the E of
20W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are found from this area to
the Lesser Antilles in a belt extending N of the ITCZ where three
Atlantic tropical waves are present as described in detail above.
Seas of 3-6 ft dominate the open tropical Atlantic waters in mixed
NE-E and NW-N swells.
For the forecast west of 55W, broad high pressure over the area
will change little through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night.
The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally
fresh trade winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing some in
coverage beginning Fri night. Moderate to fresh southwest winds
east of northeast Florida to near 74W are ahead of a trough. These
winds will expand eastward to near 67W through Wed, as a weak
frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. It is expected
to move offshore late Fri night and stall offshore northeast
Florida Sat and Sat night. Expect fresh to strong winds each
afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola.
$$
Lewitsky
Active Tropical Systems
- Wed, 17 Jun 2026 05:32:01 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:11:02 GMT - Mon, 15 Jun 2026 17:32:01 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 151731
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northwestern Gulf of America:
A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development is not expected during the next day or so while the
trough remains inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the
northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and
environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the
formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into
Thursday.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern
and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should
prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days
which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and
river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible
along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday. Additional
information on this system can be found in products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Mon, 15 Jun 2026 16:13:01 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 151612
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 PM EDT MON 15 JUNE 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z JUNE 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-015
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 17/0600Z A. 17/1130,1730Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA SURVEY B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 17/0345Z C. 17/0930Z
D. 27.0N 97.0W D. 28.0N 96.0W
E. 17/0530Z TO 17/0930Z E. 17/1100Z TO 17/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. SYSTEM SURVEY G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A
THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION
INTO SUSPECT AREA FOR 17/1800Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM/KAL/RAR
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf