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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2026 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Tue, 29 Sep 2026 10:52:39 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 291052
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Sep 29 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 25.0N 46.8W at 29/0900 UTC
or 1270 nm WSW of the Azores, moving SW at 11 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas to 11 ft are within 75
nm in the NW quadrant. Fay is a sheared storm with numerous
moderate to strong convection occurring from 22N to 25N between
43W and 47W. A general SW to W-SW motion is anticipated over the
next several days. Some weakening is expected during the next day
or so, and Fay is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone
within 36 h.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 77W, south
of 18N into northwestern Colombia, moving west at 10 kt. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is ahead of the wave from 14N to
18N between 77W and 82W, while scattered moderate convection is
found elsewhere S of 19N between 74W and 84W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from 20N17W to 21N25W to 07N37W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N39W to 08N50W to the coast of Venezuela near
09N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 15N
between 20W and 40W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Scattered heavy showers and tstms are ahead of a weak stationary
front that extends from Apalachicola, FL SW to SE Louisiana. High
pressure over northern Mexico against lower pressure across the
Gulf is supporting gentle to moderate SE winds over the western
half of the basin, and light to gentle winds along with slight to
moderate elsewhere.
For the forecast, the stationary front over the NE Gulf will
dissipate late today. Expect moderate to fresh winds and
building seas over mostly the western Gulf by tonight, as high
pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the
Southern Plains. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish late
in the week as the front approaches the NW Gulf Fri and Sat.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Deep layer troughing extending from the E Gulf of America
southward across the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme western
Caribbean is supporting scattered clusters of moderate isolated
strong convection across the W basin. Weak high pressure across
the western Atlantic has drifted southward to near 27N58W, and
tightened the pressure gradient modestly. This is leading to
moderate trades across the E Caribbean, and moderate to fresh
winds over the central basin, including offshore NW Colombia.
In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate
seas are ongoing.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate
seas are forecast for the NW and central Caribbean through Sat
night as high pressure builds north of the area. Mainly moderate
trades are forecast for the eastern Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Storm Fay.
An upper-level trough and abundant low-level moisture continue to
fuel scattered heavy showers and tstms across across the offshores
between Bermuda and the Bahamas. A 1018 mb high is SE of Bermuda
near 27N58W, supporting moderate or weaker winds across the
region. Seas are generally moderate across the SW N Atlantic
waters. To the E, Tropical Storm Fay is near 25.0N 46.8W at 5 AM
EDT, and is moving southwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
1008 mb. Otherwise, the remnants of Gonzalo are supporting gentle
to moderate winds NW of the Cape Verde Islands, and a cold front
extends from 31N24W to 28N42W. Moderate or weaker winds are
associated with these two features.
For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will persist across the Bahamas offshores as a
trough lingers in the region through midweek. High pressure SE of
Bermuda will continue to build over the western Atlantic and
support moderate to fresh E winds and 3-5 ft seas south of 25N Wed
through Fri.
$$
Ramos
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Tue, 29 Sep 2026 10:52:39 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 291052
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Sep 29 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 25.0N 46.8W at 29/0900 UTC
or 1270 nm WSW of the Azores, moving SW at 11 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas to 11 ft are within 75
nm in the NW quadrant. Fay is a sheared storm with numerous
moderate to strong convection occurring from 22N to 25N between
43W and 47W. A general SW to W-SW motion is anticipated over the
next several days. Some weakening is expected during the next day
or so, and Fay is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone
within 36 h.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 77W, south
of 18N into northwestern Colombia, moving west at 10 kt. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is ahead of the wave from 14N to
18N between 77W and 82W, while scattered moderate convection is
found elsewhere S of 19N between 74W and 84W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from 20N17W to 21N25W to 07N37W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N39W to 08N50W to the coast of Venezuela near
09N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 15N
between 20W and 40W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Scattered heavy showers and tstms are ahead of a weak stationary
front that extends from Apalachicola, FL SW to SE Louisiana. High
pressure over northern Mexico against lower pressure across the
Gulf is supporting gentle to moderate SE winds over the western
half of the basin, and light to gentle winds along with slight to
moderate elsewhere.
For the forecast, the stationary front over the NE Gulf will
dissipate late today. Expect moderate to fresh winds and
building seas over mostly the western Gulf by tonight, as high
pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the
Southern Plains. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish late
in the week as the front approaches the NW Gulf Fri and Sat.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Deep layer troughing extending from the E Gulf of America
southward across the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme western
Caribbean is supporting scattered clusters of moderate isolated
strong convection across the W basin. Weak high pressure across
the western Atlantic has drifted southward to near 27N58W, and
tightened the pressure gradient modestly. This is leading to
moderate trades across the E Caribbean, and moderate to fresh
winds over the central basin, including offshore NW Colombia.
In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate
seas are ongoing.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate
seas are forecast for the NW and central Caribbean through Sat
night as high pressure builds north of the area. Mainly moderate
trades are forecast for the eastern Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Storm Fay.
An upper-level trough and abundant low-level moisture continue to
fuel scattered heavy showers and tstms across across the offshores
between Bermuda and the Bahamas. A 1018 mb high is SE of Bermuda
near 27N58W, supporting moderate or weaker winds across the
region. Seas are generally moderate across the SW N Atlantic
waters. To the E, Tropical Storm Fay is near 25.0N 46.8W at 5 AM
EDT, and is moving southwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
1008 mb. Otherwise, the remnants of Gonzalo are supporting gentle
to moderate winds NW of the Cape Verde Islands, and a cold front
extends from 31N24W to 28N42W. Moderate or weaker winds are
associated with these two features.
For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will persist across the Bahamas offshores as a
trough lingers in the region through midweek. High pressure SE of
Bermuda will continue to build over the western Atlantic and
support moderate to fresh E winds and 3-5 ft seas south of 25N Wed
through Fri.
$$
Ramos
Active Tropical Systems
- Tue, 29 Sep 2026 15:29:35 +0000: Tropical Storm Hanna Graphics - NHC Atlantic
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Sep 2026 15:29:35 GMT - Tue, 29 Sep 2026 15:23:20 +0000: Tropical Depression Fay Graphics - NHC Atlantic
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Sep 2026 15:23:20 GMT - Tue, 29 Sep 2026 15:01:41 +0000: Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Advisory Number 5 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 29 2026000 WTNT23 KNHC 291500 CCA TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082026 1500 UTC TUE SEP 29 2026 CORRECTED TO ADD 4 M SEAS TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 45.5W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS.... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 45.5W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 45.7W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 34.0N 44.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 33.9N 43.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.5N 41.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.3N 39.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 36.4N 37.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 37.4N 34.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 45.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
- Tue, 29 Sep 2026 14:49:39 +0000: Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Discussion Number 5 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026000 WTNT43 KNHC 291449 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082026 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026 Satellite imagery this morning shows that Hanna continues as a sheared tropical cyclone with the low-level center mostly exposed to the west of the main convective area. The cyclone also remains just south of a weak frontal boundary. Based on a just received ASCAT overpass, the initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt. The scatterometer data also suggests that the circulation is becoming less well defined as it interacts with the frontal boundary. The initial motion is now 125/10 kt. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. Hanna is embedded in the flow between a broad mid-latitude trough to its northeast and a larger subtropical ridge to its south. This synoptic pattern should result in a southeastward or east-southward motion over the next 12-24 h with a gradual decrease in forward speed. An east-northeastward motion is then expected as the cyclone becomes vertically shallow and influenced by a low-level ridge centered south of the Azores. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and is in best agreement with the HFIP Corrected Consensus model. Hanna should gradually weaken due to shear and dry air entrainment, and the system is likely to stop producing convection and degenerate to a remnant low between 36-48 h based on global model simulated satellite imagery. The system is expected to weaken to a trough by 96 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 34.6N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 34.0N 44.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 33.9N 43.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 34.5N 41.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 35.3N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/0000Z 36.4N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1200Z 37.4N 34.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
- Tue, 29 Sep 2026 14:49:39 +0000: Tropical Depression Fay Forecast Discussion Number 38 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026000 WTNT41 KNHC 291449 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026 Fay remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center completely exposed and all the deep convection sheared well to the southwest. This remaining convection continues to be displaced further and further away from the low-level center. Recent satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS and TAFB have trended downward to around 30 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity for this advisory is lowered to 30 kt, making Fay a tropical depression once again. Fay is moving southwestward, or 225/10 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge located over the central Atlantic. This general motion is expected to continue throughout the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update to the previous advisory and remains in good agreement with HCCA corrected-consensus aid. The depression is expected to continue to deal with increasing vertical wind shear, which should limit convection near the low-level center. As Fay moves into a more stable airmass, global models are in good agreement that the cyclone will become completely devoid of deep convection by Wednesday. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low at that time, before opening into a trough shortly thereafter. Given the increasingly hostile environment, it is entirely possible that the system could become post-tropical or dissipate even earlier than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 24.2N 47.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 23.4N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 22.8N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0000Z 22.5N 53.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Tue, 29 Sep 2026 14:18:09 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 291418
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1020 AM EDT TUE 29 SEPTEMBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 01/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-121
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: NOAA 42 WILL CONDUCT 8-HOUR P-3 RESEARCH MISSION INTO
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WEDNESDAY, DEPARTING KHRL AT 30/1330Z.
DURING THE MISSION, FOUR SMALL UAS ARE PLANNED FOR RELEASE
WITHIN THE STORM ENVIRONMENT. THEY WILL OPERATE AT OR BELOW
5,000 FT FOR ABOUT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf





