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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Tue, 13 Oct 2026 06:08:59 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 130608
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Oct 13 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is analyzed along 32W, from 10N to 20N, moving
westward near 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed at the
wave axis near 17N32W. Fresh to strong winds are approximately
within 390 nm NE semicircle, where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Numerous
moderate scattered strong convection is present from 15N to 22N
between 23W and 31W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
from 08N to 16N between 30W and 37W. Environmental conditions
appear, at best, only marginally conducive for development of this
system before upper-level winds become too strong for any further
development on Tuesday. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected to
continue for the next day or two across western portions of the
Cabo Verde Islands, and some flooding is possible there as the
system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. There is a
low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours,
and through next 7 days.
A tropical wave is analyzed near 45W, from 10N to 20N, moving
westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed from 09N to 16N between 36W and 46W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 13N35W to
11N48W. The ITCZ extends from 11N48W to 10N55W to 10N62W. See
information on the convection in the Tropical Waves section above.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weakening stationary front extends from SW Florida near 25N81W
to the Yucatan adjacent waters near 22N90W to 23N93W. A 1018 mb
high is located over the Mississippi/Alabama coastal waters, which
is providing gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the eastern
half of the Gulf S of 27N, and E to SE winds of the same speed W
of 90W. Seas basin-wide are mainly slight with some areas reaching
4 ft.
For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate through
Wed. High pressure building in the wake of the front over the
north-central Gulf will support E to SE winds and moderate seas
from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes
and slight seas elsewhere. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf
Fri night, and reach from SW Florida to the far SW Gulf by Sat
night. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow
the front, with strong gales possible off the coast of Mexico
between Tampico and Coatzacoalcos Fri night through Sat night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered showers and tstms are over the lee of Cuba adjacent
waters, in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras. A
middle-level low is supporting scattered to isolated showers over
the eastern half of the basin. This low aloft reflects at the
surface on a trough that is moving across western Hispaniola.
Otherwise, the passage of a cold front N of the area along with
low pressure E of the Bahamas are supporting a weak pressure
gradient across the region, thus resulting in moderate or weaker
trade winds and slight to moderate seas, except for fresh winds
offshore Venezuela in the south-central Caribbean.
For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
active across the central Caribbean through tonight, associated
with an upper level low. Fresh winds across the south-central
Caribbean will diminish through tonight as high pressure north of
the region shifts eastward. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and
moderate seas will persist through midweek across the Caribbean,
then increase again later in the week as high pressure builds
north of the area.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weak cold front extends from 31N70W to Freeport in the Bahamas
where it stalls. Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends from
29N70W to 25N76W, which is supporting isolated showers ahead of it
to approximately 67W. Farther east, a 1014 mb low is centered near
26N66W. however it lacks convection. The central and eastern
subtropical Atlantic are under the influence of the Azores ridge
with a weakening stationary front that extends from 31N32W to
27N51W. A surface trough connects to the tail of this front and
continues to 22N54W. Further east, there is another trough near
39W, however all these features lack convection. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are N of 20N W of 44W. East of 44W,
winds are fresh to strong in the NE semicircle of a low connected
to a tropical wave near 32W. Fresh to locally strong winds are
also ongoing between the coast of W Africa and the Canary Islands.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will continue moving
east tonight, stall on Tue, then dissipate through Wed. A second
reinforcing front will move southward into the waters east of 75W
Tue into Wed, then stall and dissipate along 29N through Thu. A
stronger cold front will move into the waters off NE Florida by
late Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from Bermuda to
South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and
rough seas will follow the front.
$$
Ramos
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Tue, 13 Oct 2026 06:08:59 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 130608
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Oct 13 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is analyzed along 32W, from 10N to 20N, moving
westward near 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed at the
wave axis near 17N32W. Fresh to strong winds are approximately
within 390 nm NE semicircle, where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Numerous
moderate scattered strong convection is present from 15N to 22N
between 23W and 31W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
from 08N to 16N between 30W and 37W. Environmental conditions
appear, at best, only marginally conducive for development of this
system before upper-level winds become too strong for any further
development on Tuesday. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected to
continue for the next day or two across western portions of the
Cabo Verde Islands, and some flooding is possible there as the
system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. There is a
low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours,
and through next 7 days.
A tropical wave is analyzed near 45W, from 10N to 20N, moving
westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed from 09N to 16N between 36W and 46W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 13N35W to
11N48W. The ITCZ extends from 11N48W to 10N55W to 10N62W. See
information on the convection in the Tropical Waves section above.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weakening stationary front extends from SW Florida near 25N81W
to the Yucatan adjacent waters near 22N90W to 23N93W. A 1018 mb
high is located over the Mississippi/Alabama coastal waters, which
is providing gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the eastern
half of the Gulf S of 27N, and E to SE winds of the same speed W
of 90W. Seas basin-wide are mainly slight with some areas reaching
4 ft.
For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate through
Wed. High pressure building in the wake of the front over the
north-central Gulf will support E to SE winds and moderate seas
from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes
and slight seas elsewhere. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf
Fri night, and reach from SW Florida to the far SW Gulf by Sat
night. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow
the front, with strong gales possible off the coast of Mexico
between Tampico and Coatzacoalcos Fri night through Sat night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered showers and tstms are over the lee of Cuba adjacent
waters, in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras. A
middle-level low is supporting scattered to isolated showers over
the eastern half of the basin. This low aloft reflects at the
surface on a trough that is moving across western Hispaniola.
Otherwise, the passage of a cold front N of the area along with
low pressure E of the Bahamas are supporting a weak pressure
gradient across the region, thus resulting in moderate or weaker
trade winds and slight to moderate seas, except for fresh winds
offshore Venezuela in the south-central Caribbean.
For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
active across the central Caribbean through tonight, associated
with an upper level low. Fresh winds across the south-central
Caribbean will diminish through tonight as high pressure north of
the region shifts eastward. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and
moderate seas will persist through midweek across the Caribbean,
then increase again later in the week as high pressure builds
north of the area.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weak cold front extends from 31N70W to Freeport in the Bahamas
where it stalls. Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends from
29N70W to 25N76W, which is supporting isolated showers ahead of it
to approximately 67W. Farther east, a 1014 mb low is centered near
26N66W. however it lacks convection. The central and eastern
subtropical Atlantic are under the influence of the Azores ridge
with a weakening stationary front that extends from 31N32W to
27N51W. A surface trough connects to the tail of this front and
continues to 22N54W. Further east, there is another trough near
39W, however all these features lack convection. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are N of 20N W of 44W. East of 44W,
winds are fresh to strong in the NE semicircle of a low connected
to a tropical wave near 32W. Fresh to locally strong winds are
also ongoing between the coast of W Africa and the Canary Islands.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will continue moving
east tonight, stall on Tue, then dissipate through Wed. A second
reinforcing front will move southward into the waters east of 75W
Tue into Wed, then stall and dissipate along 29N through Thu. A
stronger cold front will move into the waters off NE Florida by
late Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from Bermuda to
South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and
rough seas will follow the front.
$$
Ramos
Active Tropical Systems
- Wed, 14 Oct 2026 17:19:32 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 13 Oct 2026 10:20:12 GMT - Tue, 13 Oct 2026 05:19:32 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 130519
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles west
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms well to the east of its center. Further
development of this system appears unlikely as the low moves slowly
northward to north-northwestward and encounters stronger upper-level
winds today and tonight. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
is expected to continue today across western portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands with some flooding possible there.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Mon, 12 Oct 2026 14:44:53 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
445
NOUS42 KNHC 121444
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 12 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-134
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX OF HURRICANE SIMON FOR
14/2000Z.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf