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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sat, 19 Sep 2026 09:15:54 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 190915
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Sep 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 44W from 06N
to 21N, drifting westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 15N to 18N between 40W and 45W. Scattered
moderate isolated to strong convection is also noted north of the
tropical wave from 20N to 26N between 40W and 45W, mostly due to
a sharp upper trough northwest of the tropical wave.
A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis roughly along
82W/83W south of 19N near the Cayman Islands to near the border
of Costa Rica and Panama, moving westward around 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 18N to
20N between 75W and 88W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 14N17W to 10N23W to 13N44W.
The ITCZ extends from 13N46W to 11N61W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 08N to 11N between 15W and 25W. Scattered
moderate convection is also noted near 1012 mb low pressure near
14N52W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms is active over the
southeast and south-central Gulf, south of a trough from 26N81W to
1014 mb low pressure near 24N92W. Light to gentle E breezes
persist across the Gulf between the weak low pressure and equally
weak high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley. Seas are 1-3
ft in the eastern Gulf and 2-4 ft in the western Gulf.
For the forecast, ridging will dominate the Gulf region
supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
through Sun. Winds will then ease to light to gentle speeds early
next week, with seas remaining slight. Meanwhile, a broad upper-
level low currently located over northeastern Florida will move
into the NE Gulf today. This feature will lead to increasing
shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and central Gulf
waters.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between broad high pressure north of the
basin and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is
allowing for mostly fresh E trades over the central Caribbean
from 11N to 15N between 68W and 79W, where seas are 6-9 ft.
Moderate to fresh trades are found elsewhere along with seas of
5-7 ft, except for gentle breezes and 1-3 ft seas over the
northwest Caribbean.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the
western Atlantic and the Colombian Low will generally maintain
fresh to strong trades along with moderate to locally rough seas
over most of the central Caribbean through this morning. Winds
will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds thereafter as the
pressure gradient relaxes across the area. Moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A trough extends from 31N74W to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Farther
east, another trough is along 60W from 25N to 30N, and from 31N43W
to 23N55W. This creates a weak pressure pattern supporting light
to gentle breezes and 3-4 ft seas west of 50W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are active off east-central Florida and between
the southern Bahamas and Bermuda. Gentle to moderate breezes and
5-7 ft seas are noted east of 50W. As noted in the Tropical Wave
section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
20N to 26N between 40W and 45W, mostly due to a sharp upper
trough near 29N47W.
For the forecast west of 55W, weak troughing will persist north
of the Bahamas through late Sun, then dissipate. High pressure
will then become the dominant feature across the basin during
through early next week, promoting light to gentle winds with
slight to moderate seas, with the exception of moderate to locally
fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas offshore Hispaniola.
Meanwhile, abundant tropical moisture, combined with an upper-
level low now located over central Florida, will continue to
support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms off east-
central Florida and between the southern Bahamas and Bermuda
through at least Sun.
$$
Christensen
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sat, 19 Sep 2026 09:15:54 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 190915
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Sep 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 44W from 06N
to 21N, drifting westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 15N to 18N between 40W and 45W. Scattered
moderate isolated to strong convection is also noted north of the
tropical wave from 20N to 26N between 40W and 45W, mostly due to
a sharp upper trough northwest of the tropical wave.
A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis roughly along
82W/83W south of 19N near the Cayman Islands to near the border
of Costa Rica and Panama, moving westward around 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 18N to
20N between 75W and 88W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 14N17W to 10N23W to 13N44W.
The ITCZ extends from 13N46W to 11N61W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 08N to 11N between 15W and 25W. Scattered
moderate convection is also noted near 1012 mb low pressure near
14N52W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms is active over the
southeast and south-central Gulf, south of a trough from 26N81W to
1014 mb low pressure near 24N92W. Light to gentle E breezes
persist across the Gulf between the weak low pressure and equally
weak high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley. Seas are 1-3
ft in the eastern Gulf and 2-4 ft in the western Gulf.
For the forecast, ridging will dominate the Gulf region
supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
through Sun. Winds will then ease to light to gentle speeds early
next week, with seas remaining slight. Meanwhile, a broad upper-
level low currently located over northeastern Florida will move
into the NE Gulf today. This feature will lead to increasing
shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and central Gulf
waters.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between broad high pressure north of the
basin and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is
allowing for mostly fresh E trades over the central Caribbean
from 11N to 15N between 68W and 79W, where seas are 6-9 ft.
Moderate to fresh trades are found elsewhere along with seas of
5-7 ft, except for gentle breezes and 1-3 ft seas over the
northwest Caribbean.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the
western Atlantic and the Colombian Low will generally maintain
fresh to strong trades along with moderate to locally rough seas
over most of the central Caribbean through this morning. Winds
will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds thereafter as the
pressure gradient relaxes across the area. Moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A trough extends from 31N74W to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Farther
east, another trough is along 60W from 25N to 30N, and from 31N43W
to 23N55W. This creates a weak pressure pattern supporting light
to gentle breezes and 3-4 ft seas west of 50W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are active off east-central Florida and between
the southern Bahamas and Bermuda. Gentle to moderate breezes and
5-7 ft seas are noted east of 50W. As noted in the Tropical Wave
section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
20N to 26N between 40W and 45W, mostly due to a sharp upper
trough near 29N47W.
For the forecast west of 55W, weak troughing will persist north
of the Bahamas through late Sun, then dissipate. High pressure
will then become the dominant feature across the basin during
through early next week, promoting light to gentle winds with
slight to moderate seas, with the exception of moderate to locally
fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas offshore Hispaniola.
Meanwhile, abundant tropical moisture, combined with an upper-
level low now located over central Florida, will continue to
support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms off east-
central Florida and between the southern Bahamas and Bermuda
through at least Sun.
$$
Christensen
Active Tropical Systems
- Sun, 20 Sep 2026 23:51:22 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 19 Sep 2026 12:00:17 GMT - Sat, 19 Sep 2026 11:51:22 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
872
ABNT20 KNHC 191149
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Eastern Subtropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated near the
center of a low pressure system located several hundred miles
southwest of the western Azores since yesterday. A short-lived
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later
today or tonight while moving north-northeastward at about 5 mph,
but remaining well to the southwest of the Azores. Upper-level winds
are forecast to become less conducive for development beginning
late Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Fri, 18 Sep 2026 14:42:20 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 181442
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT FRI 18 SEPTEMBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-110
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE MISSION INTO SUSPECT AREA
EP99 SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO NEAR 15.8N 106.8W FOR
20/1800Z.
$$
KAL
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf