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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sat, 24 Oct 2026 23:42:51 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 242342
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient will continue
to develop across the northwestern zones tonight into Sun
as strong high pressure builds southward over the western
Atlantic, and low pressure deepens near the southern Bahamas
southwest of a cold front along 30N moving slowly southeastward
into the area. This setup is expected to induce widespread fresh
to near gale-force northeast to east winds and rough to very
rough seas, with winds reaching gale-force over much of the
waters north of 27N and between 60W and 76W early Sun through
early on Mon. The front is expected to stall from near Bermuda
to the central Bahamas by Mon, with winds and seas diminishing
very slowly through mid week. Mariners are urged to remain alert
to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary
precautions to avoid the affected areas. Please, see the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.
Heavy Rainfall Event in the Northern Caribbean: A mid to upper-
level trough over the northern Caribbean combined with abundant
tropical moisture will support periods of heavy rain over eastern
Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks
and Caicos Islands through Mon. By Sun, model guidance indicates
that the trough will begin to weaken and meander northward. The
main areas that are expected to be impacted by abundant tropical
moisture and heavy rainfall will then shift to north and east of
Cuba over the southern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, the Windward
Passage and Hispaniola. The heavy rainfall will raise concerns
for dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding. Please refer
to your local weather services and the International Desk at the
Weather Prediction Center for more information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
15N17W southwestward to 07N24W, where it transitions to the ITCZ
to 07N35W. It resumes near 09N41W to 10N51W and to 10N60W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 09N
to 16N between 22W-35W, and from 06N to 12N between 31W-40W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ
between 41W-50W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern
United States that extends southwestward toward the central and
western Gulf, and a trough that is east of the Bahamas is
sustaining moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds basin-
wide along with moderate seas, with the exception of slight seas
over the NW Gulf coastal waters and offshore Veracruz.
For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the
high pressure and low pressure that is forecast to deepen near
the central Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough
seas over the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits this
evening through early Wed.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Special Features section above for information
about the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba,
Hispaniola, and Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos and locations farther
east through the early part of the upcoming week.
A trough extends from a western Atlantic weak low pressure of 1014
mb near 25N74W south-southwestward to across eastern Cuba, and
continues to across western Jamaica and to near 15N78W. The
combination of this feature with upper-level diffluence east of a
mid to upper-level trough that extends from Florida to the
northwestern Caribbean supports scattered moderate to strong
convection between Haiti and 14N between 72W and 76W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the southwestern
Caribbean mainly due to the eastern segment of the East Pacific
monsoon trough. The gradient along the SE periphery of the Gulf of
America high pressure is allowing for moderate to fresh north to
northeast winds to be over the northwest portion of the basin,
including in the Yucatan Channel. Mostly moderate north winds are
within about 60 nm offshore Nicaragua. Latest satellite altimeter
data indicates slight seas over the southwestern and northwestern
Caribbean. The Azores High ridge extends to the central Atlantic
subtropical waters. Its related gradient is supporting moderate to
fresh east to southeast winds east of about 75W, where seas are
maxing out to around 7 ft.
For the forecast, the aforementioned mid to upper level trough
will slowly shift eastward through Mon and support scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the north- central
Caribbean and Windward Passage. Meanwhile, a broad surface trough
over the central Bahamas extends southwestward across Jamaica
and into the SW Caribbean, and will drift eastward through Tue.
Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will build southward
across Florida and the Gulf of America through the weekend and
lead to fresh north to northeast winds and building seas across
the western Caribbean W of the trough. Expect rough seas in large
N swell across the Yucatan Channel Mon through Tue. Little
change is expected elsewhere.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section above for information
about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and a heavy rain
expected for the southern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos
Islands, the Windward Passage and Hispaniola.
A stationary front extends from near 31N56W to 29N69W and to near
27N75W. Strong to near gale-froce northeast to east winds are
north of the boundary along with seas of 9 to 14 ft in northeast
swell. A trough extends from a 1014 mb low pressure near 25N74W
south-southwestward to across eastern Cuba and continues farther
south into the western Caribbean. Another trough extends from
the low northeastward to near 30N64W. Another trough is analyzed
from near 28N60W to 20N69W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 20N to 31N between 62W and 73W. To the NE
of this broad area of low pressure, a stationary front extends from
near 31N59W to 27N74W. The remainder subtropical Atlantic is under
the influence of the Azores high pressure ridge, which is supporting
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds east of about 55W, except
locally strong in the vicinity of the Canary Islands and near Cape
Verde.
For the forecast west of 55W, a tightening pressure gradient will
continue to develop across the northwestern zones tonight
through Sun as strong high pressure builds southward over the
western Atlantic, and low pressure deepens near the central
Bahamas, and just S of a stationary front along 28N-29N. This
setup is expected to induce widespread strong to near gale-force
northeast to east winds and very rough seas building to 20 ft,
with gale-force winds expected over much of the waters north of
27N and between 60W and 76W early Sun through Mon morning. The
front is expected to stall from near Bermuda to the central
Bahamas on Mon, with winds and seas diminishing very slowly
through Thu. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these
dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions
to avoid these affected areas.
$$
Aguirre
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sat, 24 Oct 2026 23:42:51 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 242342
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient will continue
to develop across the northwestern zones tonight into Sun
as strong high pressure builds southward over the western
Atlantic, and low pressure deepens near the southern Bahamas
southwest of a cold front along 30N moving slowly southeastward
into the area. This setup is expected to induce widespread fresh
to near gale-force northeast to east winds and rough to very
rough seas, with winds reaching gale-force over much of the
waters north of 27N and between 60W and 76W early Sun through
early on Mon. The front is expected to stall from near Bermuda
to the central Bahamas by Mon, with winds and seas diminishing
very slowly through mid week. Mariners are urged to remain alert
to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary
precautions to avoid the affected areas. Please, see the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.
Heavy Rainfall Event in the Northern Caribbean: A mid to upper-
level trough over the northern Caribbean combined with abundant
tropical moisture will support periods of heavy rain over eastern
Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks
and Caicos Islands through Mon. By Sun, model guidance indicates
that the trough will begin to weaken and meander northward. The
main areas that are expected to be impacted by abundant tropical
moisture and heavy rainfall will then shift to north and east of
Cuba over the southern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, the Windward
Passage and Hispaniola. The heavy rainfall will raise concerns
for dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding. Please refer
to your local weather services and the International Desk at the
Weather Prediction Center for more information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
15N17W southwestward to 07N24W, where it transitions to the ITCZ
to 07N35W. It resumes near 09N41W to 10N51W and to 10N60W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 09N
to 16N between 22W-35W, and from 06N to 12N between 31W-40W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ
between 41W-50W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern
United States that extends southwestward toward the central and
western Gulf, and a trough that is east of the Bahamas is
sustaining moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds basin-
wide along with moderate seas, with the exception of slight seas
over the NW Gulf coastal waters and offshore Veracruz.
For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the
high pressure and low pressure that is forecast to deepen near
the central Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough
seas over the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits this
evening through early Wed.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Special Features section above for information
about the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba,
Hispaniola, and Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos and locations farther
east through the early part of the upcoming week.
A trough extends from a western Atlantic weak low pressure of 1014
mb near 25N74W south-southwestward to across eastern Cuba, and
continues to across western Jamaica and to near 15N78W. The
combination of this feature with upper-level diffluence east of a
mid to upper-level trough that extends from Florida to the
northwestern Caribbean supports scattered moderate to strong
convection between Haiti and 14N between 72W and 76W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the southwestern
Caribbean mainly due to the eastern segment of the East Pacific
monsoon trough. The gradient along the SE periphery of the Gulf of
America high pressure is allowing for moderate to fresh north to
northeast winds to be over the northwest portion of the basin,
including in the Yucatan Channel. Mostly moderate north winds are
within about 60 nm offshore Nicaragua. Latest satellite altimeter
data indicates slight seas over the southwestern and northwestern
Caribbean. The Azores High ridge extends to the central Atlantic
subtropical waters. Its related gradient is supporting moderate to
fresh east to southeast winds east of about 75W, where seas are
maxing out to around 7 ft.
For the forecast, the aforementioned mid to upper level trough
will slowly shift eastward through Mon and support scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the north- central
Caribbean and Windward Passage. Meanwhile, a broad surface trough
over the central Bahamas extends southwestward across Jamaica
and into the SW Caribbean, and will drift eastward through Tue.
Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will build southward
across Florida and the Gulf of America through the weekend and
lead to fresh north to northeast winds and building seas across
the western Caribbean W of the trough. Expect rough seas in large
N swell across the Yucatan Channel Mon through Tue. Little
change is expected elsewhere.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section above for information
about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and a heavy rain
expected for the southern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos
Islands, the Windward Passage and Hispaniola.
A stationary front extends from near 31N56W to 29N69W and to near
27N75W. Strong to near gale-froce northeast to east winds are
north of the boundary along with seas of 9 to 14 ft in northeast
swell. A trough extends from a 1014 mb low pressure near 25N74W
south-southwestward to across eastern Cuba and continues farther
south into the western Caribbean. Another trough extends from
the low northeastward to near 30N64W. Another trough is analyzed
from near 28N60W to 20N69W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 20N to 31N between 62W and 73W. To the NE
of this broad area of low pressure, a stationary front extends from
near 31N59W to 27N74W. The remainder subtropical Atlantic is under
the influence of the Azores high pressure ridge, which is supporting
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds east of about 55W, except
locally strong in the vicinity of the Canary Islands and near Cape
Verde.
For the forecast west of 55W, a tightening pressure gradient will
continue to develop across the northwestern zones tonight
through Sun as strong high pressure builds southward over the
western Atlantic, and low pressure deepens near the central
Bahamas, and just S of a stationary front along 28N-29N. This
setup is expected to induce widespread strong to near gale-force
northeast to east winds and very rough seas building to 20 ft,
with gale-force winds expected over much of the waters north of
27N and between 60W and 76W early Sun through Mon morning. The
front is expected to stall from near Bermuda to the central
Bahamas on Mon, with winds and seas diminishing very slowly
through Thu. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these
dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions
to avoid these affected areas.
$$
Aguirre
Active Tropical Systems
- Mon, 26 Oct 2026 11:19:19 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 25 Oct 2026 00:04:41 GMT - Sat, 24 Oct 2026 23:19:19 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
840
ABNT20 KNHC 242319
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sat, 24 Oct 2026 14:30:02 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
625
NOUS42 KNHC 241430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 24 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-146
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION INTO
HURRICANE VANCE FOR 26/1800Z NEAR 15.0N 103.8W.
$$
KAL
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf