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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Mon, 24 Aug 2026 18:08:27 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 241808 AAA
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Aug 24 2026
Updated for the latest on the Special Feature AL95 and Tropical Wave
near 18W
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Central Subtropical Atlantic (Invest-AL95): Satellite-wind data
indicate that the low-level circulation remains broad in association
with an area of low pressure centered a few hundred nautical miles
east-southeast of Bermuda. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 20N to 31N between 48W and 61W. Fresh to
strong winds are noted mainly on the NE side of the low, north of
29N between 55W and 61W where seas are 5 to locally 8 ft just north
of the area. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive
for further development, but this system could become a short-lived
tropical depression or storm through Tuesday while it moves
northward and north-northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda. By
Wednesday, the low is forecast to move over cold waters, ending its
formation chances. This system has a medium chance of tropical
cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and through the next 7 days.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave and associated area of low
pressure has emerged off the west coast of Africa a few hundred
nautical miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands near 18W and is
accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms, while moving
westward 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 17N between 15W and 25W.
Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by
the middle to latter portions of the week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 kt across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
An central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 41.5W south
of 19N, moving westward around 15 kt. Please refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section below for details on any nearby convection as
it is elongated along the ITCZ axis.
A Tropical N Atlantic offshore waters tropical wave has its axis
along 59W south of 21N, moving westward around 10 kt. Convection
near the wave is limited however some isolated to widely scattered
showers near the axis are possible.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W south of 21N across
central portions of the Dominican Republic to northwest Venezuela,
moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 17N to 18.5N between 69W and 72W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 14.5N17W and continues west-soutwhestward to 12N33W.
The ITCZ extends from 12N133W to 10N40W, then resumes west of a
tropical wave from 08N42W to along the coast of northern South
America to 06N50W, with another segment to the west just inland of
the Caribbean coast. Aside from the convection associated with
the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted within 180 nm either side of the ITCZ between
33W and 54W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Weak surface ridging that is anchored by a 1017 mb high center
located near 26N89W is generally allowing for anticyclonic light
to gentle winds across the basin, except moderate in the eastern
Bay of Campeche to the western Yucatan Peninsula. Seas of slight
state remain over the basin per buoy observations. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are confined the Bay of
Campeche south of 21N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over
portions of the N-central and NE Gulf due to a weak low level
trough.
For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over
central Gulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge building
westward into the basin thereafter. This will maintain gentle to
locally moderate winds and slight seas this week. A surface trough
will generate locally fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan
Peninsula in the early evenings through the period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western
Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America
continues to allow for fresh to strong trades over the central
Caribbean from the coast of Hispaniola to the coasts of NW
Venezuela and northern Colombia. Seas up to 7 ft are with these
trades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere
from 11N to 18N, with gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas
elsewhere, except slight north of 20N in the lee of Cuba.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from
09N to 15N between 78.5W and 85W including over portions of
northern Costa Rica and eastern Nicaragua.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic
high pressure and low pressure in northern South America will
continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough
seas over the south-central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere, mainly
moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside
from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the
basin. Winds will pulse at times through the week following
passages of a series of relatively weak tropical waves that will
quickly move west across the basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
low pressure, Invest AL95, with the potential for tropical
cyclone formation, and on a tropical wave that has recently
emerged off Africa.
A couple of weak surface troughs are analyzed off the coast of the
SE United States and Florida with isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms from roughly 27N to 31N between 73W and
79W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted from the southern Bahamas
and Turks and Caicos Islands to near the approach to the Windward
Passage with low level troughing in place. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere north of 20N and west of 61W. Slight to
moderate seas prevail north of 20N and west of 61W.
Another pair of weak surface troughs are in the NE portion of the
basin from near the Canary Islands westward as the remnants of an
old frontal boundary. No significant convection is noted near
these features. Otherwise, broad high pressure ridging prevails.
Moderate to fresh trades dominate from north of the monsoon trough
and ITCZ between Africa and 56W, with 4 to 7 ft seas. Winds are
mainly moderate and seas moderate across any remainder waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, broad low pressure of 1016 mb
centered near 29N62W is producing scattered moderate convection
and strong winds E of its center to about 52W. This low is
expected to move N and out of the area by tonight, and is showing
signs of tropical organization. Additional development of this
system is possible, and a short- lived tropical depression or
storm could form during the next couple of days well E of Bermuda.
Regardless of development, conditions will improve over area
waters by Tue as the system moves away. Elsewhere,moderate to
fresh trades will prevail S of 23N, with slightly higher winds
pulsing at times as the northern extent of tropical waves most
westward across the far southern waters this week.
$$
Lewitsky
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Mon, 24 Aug 2026 18:08:27 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 241808 AAA
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Aug 24 2026
Updated for the latest on the Special Feature AL95 and Tropical Wave
near 18W
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Central Subtropical Atlantic (Invest-AL95): Satellite-wind data
indicate that the low-level circulation remains broad in association
with an area of low pressure centered a few hundred nautical miles
east-southeast of Bermuda. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 20N to 31N between 48W and 61W. Fresh to
strong winds are noted mainly on the NE side of the low, north of
29N between 55W and 61W where seas are 5 to locally 8 ft just north
of the area. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive
for further development, but this system could become a short-lived
tropical depression or storm through Tuesday while it moves
northward and north-northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda. By
Wednesday, the low is forecast to move over cold waters, ending its
formation chances. This system has a medium chance of tropical
cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and through the next 7 days.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave and associated area of low
pressure has emerged off the west coast of Africa a few hundred
nautical miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands near 18W and is
accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms, while moving
westward 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 17N between 15W and 25W.
Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by
the middle to latter portions of the week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 kt across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
An central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 41.5W south
of 19N, moving westward around 15 kt. Please refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section below for details on any nearby convection as
it is elongated along the ITCZ axis.
A Tropical N Atlantic offshore waters tropical wave has its axis
along 59W south of 21N, moving westward around 10 kt. Convection
near the wave is limited however some isolated to widely scattered
showers near the axis are possible.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W south of 21N across
central portions of the Dominican Republic to northwest Venezuela,
moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 17N to 18.5N between 69W and 72W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 14.5N17W and continues west-soutwhestward to 12N33W.
The ITCZ extends from 12N133W to 10N40W, then resumes west of a
tropical wave from 08N42W to along the coast of northern South
America to 06N50W, with another segment to the west just inland of
the Caribbean coast. Aside from the convection associated with
the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted within 180 nm either side of the ITCZ between
33W and 54W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Weak surface ridging that is anchored by a 1017 mb high center
located near 26N89W is generally allowing for anticyclonic light
to gentle winds across the basin, except moderate in the eastern
Bay of Campeche to the western Yucatan Peninsula. Seas of slight
state remain over the basin per buoy observations. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are confined the Bay of
Campeche south of 21N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over
portions of the N-central and NE Gulf due to a weak low level
trough.
For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over
central Gulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge building
westward into the basin thereafter. This will maintain gentle to
locally moderate winds and slight seas this week. A surface trough
will generate locally fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan
Peninsula in the early evenings through the period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western
Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America
continues to allow for fresh to strong trades over the central
Caribbean from the coast of Hispaniola to the coasts of NW
Venezuela and northern Colombia. Seas up to 7 ft are with these
trades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere
from 11N to 18N, with gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas
elsewhere, except slight north of 20N in the lee of Cuba.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from
09N to 15N between 78.5W and 85W including over portions of
northern Costa Rica and eastern Nicaragua.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic
high pressure and low pressure in northern South America will
continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough
seas over the south-central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere, mainly
moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside
from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the
basin. Winds will pulse at times through the week following
passages of a series of relatively weak tropical waves that will
quickly move west across the basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
low pressure, Invest AL95, with the potential for tropical
cyclone formation, and on a tropical wave that has recently
emerged off Africa.
A couple of weak surface troughs are analyzed off the coast of the
SE United States and Florida with isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms from roughly 27N to 31N between 73W and
79W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted from the southern Bahamas
and Turks and Caicos Islands to near the approach to the Windward
Passage with low level troughing in place. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere north of 20N and west of 61W. Slight to
moderate seas prevail north of 20N and west of 61W.
Another pair of weak surface troughs are in the NE portion of the
basin from near the Canary Islands westward as the remnants of an
old frontal boundary. No significant convection is noted near
these features. Otherwise, broad high pressure ridging prevails.
Moderate to fresh trades dominate from north of the monsoon trough
and ITCZ between Africa and 56W, with 4 to 7 ft seas. Winds are
mainly moderate and seas moderate across any remainder waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, broad low pressure of 1016 mb
centered near 29N62W is producing scattered moderate convection
and strong winds E of its center to about 52W. This low is
expected to move N and out of the area by tonight, and is showing
signs of tropical organization. Additional development of this
system is possible, and a short- lived tropical depression or
storm could form during the next couple of days well E of Bermuda.
Regardless of development, conditions will improve over area
waters by Tue as the system moves away. Elsewhere,moderate to
fresh trades will prevail S of 23N, with slightly higher winds
pulsing at times as the northern extent of tropical waves most
westward across the far southern waters this week.
$$
Lewitsky
Active Tropical Systems
- Wed, 26 Aug 2026 05:55:45 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 24 Aug 2026 19:28:00 GMT - Mon, 24 Aug 2026 17:55:45 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
977
ABNT20 KNHC 241755
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95):
Satellite-wind data indicate that the low-level circulation remains
broad in association with an area of low pressure centered a few
hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions
are only marginally conducive for further development, but this
system could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm
through Tuesday while it moves northward and north-northeastward,
well northeast of Bermuda. By Wednesday, the low is forecast to
move over cold waters, ending its formation chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave and associated area of low pressure is centered a
few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde islands and is
accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to
latter portions of the week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Mon, 24 Aug 2026 13:50:42 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 241350
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0950 AM EDT MON 24 AUGUST 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-085
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf