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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sat, 15 Aug 2026 04:31:56 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 150431
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Aug 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: the pressure gradient has tighten between
the surface ridging over the W Atlantic and the Colombian Low.
This is accelerating winds in the south-central Caribbean,
reaching gale-force off Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela
through tomorrow morning, then again on Sat night through Sun
morning. Very rough seas to near 15 ft will build near and
downwind of these winds.
Please see the latest NWS Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for further details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W from 05N to 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the
wave environment.
A central Atlantic tropical wave axis lies along 37W, from 05N to
20N, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted W of the wave to 42W. While environmental
conditions are conducive for some development over the next few
days, the system is expected to encounter strong upper-level winds
next week, decreasing its chances for development. There is a
medium chance for tropical development of this system in the next
7 days.
Another central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 58W
from 06N to 20N, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered
showers are noted in the wave environment.
The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W, moving
westward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted
with this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W and extends
southwestward to 08N58W. Convection is discussed in the Tropical
Waves section above.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1020 mb high is centered over the northern Gulf, near 28N89W,
leading toward gentle to moderate winds prevailing across the
forecast waters. Seas are 1-4 ft. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 60 NM of a surface trough extending from 24N90W to
28N82W.
For the forecast, the high pressure center will remain over the
north-central Gulf this weekend, then moves SE while weakening
some by Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E
to SE winds across the basin. Pulses of fresh winds will be occurring
north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of
Campeche each evening and night, as a surface trough migrates from
the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to
moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. By
midweek next week winds may increase to fresh speeds over the NW
and west-central Gulf as the pressure gradient tightens between
the high pressure and lower pressures over north-central Mexico.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning
in effect for the south-central basin tonight.
Outside of the gale area, fresh to strong trade winds and
moderate seas are occurring over the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail over the remaining waters with seas 3-6 ft.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 16N west of
81W in the NW Caribbean.
For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over most of the east and
central Caribbean will prevail through this weekend. Peak winds
to minimal gale force are expected offshore Colombia, and in the
Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Sat night. A tropical wave, with
axis along 58W, Invest AL92, will impact the Leeward Islands
tonight and Sat. Even though development is highly unlikely,
strong gusty winds, rough seas and areas of heavy rain are
possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and on
Saturday. These weather conditions are forecast to shift westward
toward the central and SW Caribbean, including the Greater
Antilles and the Windward Passage from Sat night through Mon.
Afterwards, the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W
Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high at
26N63W. Winds associated with a tropical wave, Invest AL92, are
fresh to strong from 10N-19N between 51W-63W with seas 8-12 ft.
Fresh to strong trades are occurring just north of Hispaniola with
seas 5-7 ft. Along the coast of Western Sahara and through the
Canary Islands, NE winds are fresh to strong with seas 6-8 ft.
Elsewhere the trades are moderate or weaker with seas 3-6 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined
with the passage of two tropical waves through the Caribbean Sea
will cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun
night. Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate
for the next few days. A weak cold front will slowly push across
the northern forecast border east of 70W on Sun, causing a wind
shift to the NW and then N but with little change in wind speeds
on Sun and Mon north of 28N. The front will stall late on Monday
before dissipating by midweek.
$$
ERA
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sat, 15 Aug 2026 04:31:56 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 150431
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Aug 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: the pressure gradient has tighten between
the surface ridging over the W Atlantic and the Colombian Low.
This is accelerating winds in the south-central Caribbean,
reaching gale-force off Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela
through tomorrow morning, then again on Sat night through Sun
morning. Very rough seas to near 15 ft will build near and
downwind of these winds.
Please see the latest NWS Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for further details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W from 05N to 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the
wave environment.
A central Atlantic tropical wave axis lies along 37W, from 05N to
20N, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted W of the wave to 42W. While environmental
conditions are conducive for some development over the next few
days, the system is expected to encounter strong upper-level winds
next week, decreasing its chances for development. There is a
medium chance for tropical development of this system in the next
7 days.
Another central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 58W
from 06N to 20N, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered
showers are noted in the wave environment.
The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W, moving
westward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted
with this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W and extends
southwestward to 08N58W. Convection is discussed in the Tropical
Waves section above.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1020 mb high is centered over the northern Gulf, near 28N89W,
leading toward gentle to moderate winds prevailing across the
forecast waters. Seas are 1-4 ft. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 60 NM of a surface trough extending from 24N90W to
28N82W.
For the forecast, the high pressure center will remain over the
north-central Gulf this weekend, then moves SE while weakening
some by Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E
to SE winds across the basin. Pulses of fresh winds will be occurring
north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of
Campeche each evening and night, as a surface trough migrates from
the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to
moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. By
midweek next week winds may increase to fresh speeds over the NW
and west-central Gulf as the pressure gradient tightens between
the high pressure and lower pressures over north-central Mexico.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning
in effect for the south-central basin tonight.
Outside of the gale area, fresh to strong trade winds and
moderate seas are occurring over the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail over the remaining waters with seas 3-6 ft.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 16N west of
81W in the NW Caribbean.
For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over most of the east and
central Caribbean will prevail through this weekend. Peak winds
to minimal gale force are expected offshore Colombia, and in the
Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Sat night. A tropical wave, with
axis along 58W, Invest AL92, will impact the Leeward Islands
tonight and Sat. Even though development is highly unlikely,
strong gusty winds, rough seas and areas of heavy rain are
possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and on
Saturday. These weather conditions are forecast to shift westward
toward the central and SW Caribbean, including the Greater
Antilles and the Windward Passage from Sat night through Mon.
Afterwards, the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W
Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high at
26N63W. Winds associated with a tropical wave, Invest AL92, are
fresh to strong from 10N-19N between 51W-63W with seas 8-12 ft.
Fresh to strong trades are occurring just north of Hispaniola with
seas 5-7 ft. Along the coast of Western Sahara and through the
Canary Islands, NE winds are fresh to strong with seas 6-8 ft.
Elsewhere the trades are moderate or weaker with seas 3-6 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined
with the passage of two tropical waves through the Caribbean Sea
will cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun
night. Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate
for the next few days. A weak cold front will slowly push across
the northern forecast border east of 70W on Sun, causing a wind
shift to the NW and then N but with little change in wind speeds
on Sun and Mon north of 28N. The front will stall late on Monday
before dissipating by midweek.
$$
ERA
Active Tropical Systems
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 17:44:03 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 15 Aug 2026 07:40:11 GMT - Sat, 15 Aug 2026 05:44:03 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
490
ABNT20 KNHC 150543
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Near the Windward Islands (AL92):
A tropical wave near the Windward Islands is producing gusty winds
and an area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is moving
into a region of increasing upper-level winds and drier air, and
the potential for tropical cyclone formation has decreased. Even
though development is highly unlikely, strong gusty winds to near
gale force and areas of heavy rain are possible across portions
of the Lesser Antilles today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A tropical wave over the Central Tropical Atlantic, located more
than 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development
of this system could occur during the next couple of days. After
that time, the system is expected to encounter strong upper-level
winds, decreasing its chances for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Fri, 14 Aug 2026 16:40:25 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
477
NOUS42 KNHC 141640
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1240 PM EDT FRI 14 AUGUST 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUGUST 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-075
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: NO WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS ARE TASKED IN THIS
TCPOD DUE TO THE NEED TO RELOCATE NOAA AND USAF WEATHER
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DUE TO THE
THREAT FROM TROPICAL STORM LALA. FLIGHTS TASKED IN TCPOD
26-074 ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FLY.
$$
KAL
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf