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2026 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models

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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2026 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 7 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Sat, 15 Aug 2026 04:31:56 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 150431
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Sat Aug 15 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0430 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: the pressure gradient has tighten between
    the surface ridging over the W Atlantic and the Colombian Low.
    This is accelerating winds in the south-central Caribbean,
    reaching gale-force off Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela
    through tomorrow morning, then again on Sat night through Sun
    morning. Very rough seas to near 15 ft will build near and
    downwind of these winds.

    Please see the latest NWS Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the
    National Hurricane Center at website
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for further details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W from 05N to 20N,
    moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the
    wave environment.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave axis lies along 37W, from 05N to
    20N, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted W of the wave to 42W. While environmental
    conditions are conducive for some development over the next few
    days, the system is expected to encounter strong upper-level winds
    next week, decreasing its chances for development. There is a
    medium chance for tropical development of this system in the next
    7 days.

    Another central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 58W
    from 06N to 20N, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered
    showers are noted in the wave environment.

    The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W, moving
    westward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted
    with this wave.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W and extends
    southwestward to 08N58W. Convection is discussed in the Tropical
    Waves section above.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A 1020 mb high is centered over the northern Gulf, near 28N89W,
    leading toward gentle to moderate winds prevailing across the
    forecast waters. Seas are 1-4 ft. Scattered moderate convection is
    noted within 60 NM of a surface trough extending from 24N90W to
    28N82W.

    For the forecast, the high pressure center will remain over the
    north-central Gulf this weekend, then moves SE while weakening
    some by Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E
    to SE winds across the basin. Pulses of fresh winds will be occurring
    north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of
    Campeche each evening and night, as a surface trough migrates from
    the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to
    moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. By
    midweek next week winds may increase to fresh speeds over the NW
    and west-central Gulf as the pressure gradient tightens between
    the high pressure and lower pressures over north-central Mexico.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning
    in effect for the south-central basin tonight.

    Outside of the gale area, fresh to strong trade winds and
    moderate seas are occurring over the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to
    moderate winds prevail over the remaining waters with seas 3-6 ft.
    Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 16N west of
    81W in the NW Caribbean.

    For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over most of the east and
    central Caribbean will prevail through this weekend. Peak winds
    to minimal gale force are expected offshore Colombia, and in the
    Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Sat night. A tropical wave, with
    axis along 58W, Invest AL92, will impact the Leeward Islands
    tonight and Sat. Even though development is highly unlikely,
    strong gusty winds, rough seas and areas of heavy rain are
    possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and on
    Saturday. These weather conditions are forecast to shift westward
    toward the central and SW Caribbean, including the Greater
    Antilles and the Windward Passage from Sat night through Mon.
    Afterwards, the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W
    Caribbean.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high at
    26N63W. Winds associated with a tropical wave, Invest AL92, are
    fresh to strong from 10N-19N between 51W-63W with seas 8-12 ft.
    Fresh to strong trades are occurring just north of Hispaniola with
    seas 5-7 ft. Along the coast of Western Sahara and through the
    Canary Islands, NE winds are fresh to strong with seas 6-8 ft.
    Elsewhere the trades are moderate or weaker with seas 3-6 ft.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined
    with the passage of two tropical waves through the Caribbean Sea
    will cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun
    night. Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate
    for the next few days. A weak cold front will slowly push across
    the northern forecast border east of 70W on Sun, causing a wind
    shift to the NW and then N but with little change in wind speeds
    on Sun and Mon north of 28N. The front will stall late on Monday
    before dissipating by midweek.

    $$
    ERA
Tropical Weather Discussion
  • Sat, 15 Aug 2026 04:31:56 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 150431
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Sat Aug 15 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0430 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: the pressure gradient has tighten between
    the surface ridging over the W Atlantic and the Colombian Low.
    This is accelerating winds in the south-central Caribbean,
    reaching gale-force off Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela
    through tomorrow morning, then again on Sat night through Sun
    morning. Very rough seas to near 15 ft will build near and
    downwind of these winds.

    Please see the latest NWS Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the
    National Hurricane Center at website
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for further details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W from 05N to 20N,
    moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the
    wave environment.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave axis lies along 37W, from 05N to
    20N, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted W of the wave to 42W. While environmental
    conditions are conducive for some development over the next few
    days, the system is expected to encounter strong upper-level winds
    next week, decreasing its chances for development. There is a
    medium chance for tropical development of this system in the next
    7 days.

    Another central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 58W
    from 06N to 20N, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered
    showers are noted in the wave environment.

    The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W, moving
    westward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted
    with this wave.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W and extends
    southwestward to 08N58W. Convection is discussed in the Tropical
    Waves section above.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A 1020 mb high is centered over the northern Gulf, near 28N89W,
    leading toward gentle to moderate winds prevailing across the
    forecast waters. Seas are 1-4 ft. Scattered moderate convection is
    noted within 60 NM of a surface trough extending from 24N90W to
    28N82W.

    For the forecast, the high pressure center will remain over the
    north-central Gulf this weekend, then moves SE while weakening
    some by Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E
    to SE winds across the basin. Pulses of fresh winds will be occurring
    north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of
    Campeche each evening and night, as a surface trough migrates from
    the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to
    moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. By
    midweek next week winds may increase to fresh speeds over the NW
    and west-central Gulf as the pressure gradient tightens between
    the high pressure and lower pressures over north-central Mexico.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning
    in effect for the south-central basin tonight.

    Outside of the gale area, fresh to strong trade winds and
    moderate seas are occurring over the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to
    moderate winds prevail over the remaining waters with seas 3-6 ft.
    Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 16N west of
    81W in the NW Caribbean.

    For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over most of the east and
    central Caribbean will prevail through this weekend. Peak winds
    to minimal gale force are expected offshore Colombia, and in the
    Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Sat night. A tropical wave, with
    axis along 58W, Invest AL92, will impact the Leeward Islands
    tonight and Sat. Even though development is highly unlikely,
    strong gusty winds, rough seas and areas of heavy rain are
    possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and on
    Saturday. These weather conditions are forecast to shift westward
    toward the central and SW Caribbean, including the Greater
    Antilles and the Windward Passage from Sat night through Mon.
    Afterwards, the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W
    Caribbean.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high at
    26N63W. Winds associated with a tropical wave, Invest AL92, are
    fresh to strong from 10N-19N between 51W-63W with seas 8-12 ft.
    Fresh to strong trades are occurring just north of Hispaniola with
    seas 5-7 ft. Along the coast of Western Sahara and through the
    Canary Islands, NE winds are fresh to strong with seas 6-8 ft.
    Elsewhere the trades are moderate or weaker with seas 3-6 ft.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined
    with the passage of two tropical waves through the Caribbean Sea
    will cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun
    night. Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate
    for the next few days. A weak cold front will slowly push across
    the northern forecast border east of 70W on Sun, causing a wind
    shift to the NW and then N but with little change in wind speeds
    on Sun and Mon north of 28N. The front will stall late on Monday
    before dissipating by midweek.

    $$
    ERA
Active Tropical Systems
  • Sun, 16 Aug 2026 17:44:03 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
    No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 15 Aug 2026 07:40:11 GMT
  • Sat, 15 Aug 2026 05:44:03 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
    490
    ABNT20 KNHC 150543
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

    Near the Windward Islands (AL92):
    A tropical wave near the Windward Islands is producing gusty winds
    and an area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is moving
    into a region of increasing upper-level winds and drier air, and
    the potential for tropical cyclone formation has decreased. Even
    though development is highly unlikely, strong gusty winds to near
    gale force and areas of heavy rain are possible across portions
    of the Lesser Antilles today.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

    Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
    A tropical wave over the Central Tropical Atlantic, located more
    than 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce
    disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development
    of this system could occur during the next couple of days. After
    that time, the system is expected to encounter strong upper-level
    winds, decreasing its chances for development.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...20 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
  • Fri, 14 Aug 2026 16:40:25 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
    477
    NOUS42 KNHC 141640
    REPRPD
    WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
    CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
    1240 PM EDT FRI 14 AUGUST 2026
    SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
    VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUGUST 2026
    TCPOD NUMBER.....26-075

    I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
    3. REMARK: NO WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS ARE TASKED IN THIS
    TCPOD DUE TO THE NEED TO RELOCATE NOAA AND USAF WEATHER
    RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DUE TO THE
    THREAT FROM TROPICAL STORM LALA. FLIGHTS TASKED IN TCPOD
    26-074 ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FLY.

    $$
    KAL

    NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
  • Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf
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