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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Fri, 16 Oct 2026 22:22:44 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 162222
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front has entered the far NW
Gulf and extends from 30N93W to 26N97W. Fresh to strong N winds
and building seas follow the front, forecast to reach from near
Tampa Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by early Sat
morning, and from the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf to the
eastern Bay of Campeche by early Sun morning. The front will be
just SE of the area on Mon where it will gradually dissipate.
Strong gale force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected
in the wake of the front over the west-central Gulf tonight, and
over the southwest Gulf by Sat morning. Frequent gusts to gale-
force are forecast elsewhere NW of the front tonight into Sat
morning. Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build over the
lower Mississippi Valley behind the wake of the front, promoting
fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the
Gulf likely through Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and extends SW
to 09N34W. The ITCZ extends from 05N45W to 05N54W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 11N between 30W-40W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
See details above about a Gulf of America Gale Warning.
An upper-level trough over the south-central US and a surface
trough in the western Gulf are supporting numerous showers and
thunderstorms across much of the interior Gulf. Another surface
trough along the Mexican coast supports scattered moderate
convection offshore Veracruz. A cold front has entered the far NW
Gulf and extends from 30N93W to 26N97W. Fresh to strong N winds
and building seas follow the front.
For the forecast, cold front is forecast to reach from near Tampa
Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by early Sat morning,
and from the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf to the eastern
Bay of Campeche by early Sun morning. The front will be just SE of
the area on Mon where it will gradually dissipate. Strong gale
force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected in the wake
of the front over the west-central Gulf tonight, and over the
southwest Gulf by Sat morning. Frequent gusts to gale- force are
forecast elsewhere NW of the front tonight into Sat morning.
Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build over the lower
Mississippi Valley behind the wake of the front, promoting fresh
to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf
likely through Tue.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Upper-level diffluence over the NW Caribbean is supporting
numerous moderate to strong convection W of 80W. Otherwise, the
seasonal pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh trades
through the basin, with strong easterly winds offshore Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas prevail across much of
the Caribbean, with rough seas offshore Colombia.
For the forecast, as a cold front moves across the Western
Atlantic and the Gulf of America, the pressure gradient will relax
across the basin. Under this weather pattern, expect moderate to
fresh winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela with
moderate to locally rough seas near the coast of Colombia tonight
and Sat. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are
forecast elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms
associated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW
Caribbean tonight. Moisture associated with this feature will
merge with the cold front moving across the Gulf this weekend. The
front will likely reach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel by
Tue.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 31N45W to 28N50W, and then is
stationary to 25N70W. Moderate to fresh SW winds, 7-9 ft combined
seas in NW swell, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are
active along the front east of 51W. To the south, a surface trough
is analyzed along 53W from 12N to 19N, with an upper level low
nearby supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
along 50W from 14N to 19N. To the northeast, a surface trough is
analyzed from 27N37W to 20N39W with a 1011 mb low along the
trough near 23N38W. These features are also driving fresh to
strong SE winds E of the trough to about 30W and N of 20N.
Diffluence aloft and east of this trough supports numerous showers
and thunderstorms from 17N to 27N between 25W and 35W. Elsewhere
across the Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and seas are evident
across the basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure off the Carolinas
will shift eastward ahead of a strong cold front that will move
off the coast of northeast Florida by early Sat morning. The front
will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun
morning, and from near 31N71W to western Cuba by early Mon
morning, then stall and dissipate through early next week. Strong
to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow
the front affecting mainly the waters W of 65W through Tue.
$$
Adams/Landsea
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Fri, 16 Oct 2026 22:22:44 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 162222
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front has entered the far NW
Gulf and extends from 30N93W to 26N97W. Fresh to strong N winds
and building seas follow the front, forecast to reach from near
Tampa Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by early Sat
morning, and from the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf to the
eastern Bay of Campeche by early Sun morning. The front will be
just SE of the area on Mon where it will gradually dissipate.
Strong gale force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected
in the wake of the front over the west-central Gulf tonight, and
over the southwest Gulf by Sat morning. Frequent gusts to gale-
force are forecast elsewhere NW of the front tonight into Sat
morning. Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build over the
lower Mississippi Valley behind the wake of the front, promoting
fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the
Gulf likely through Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and extends SW
to 09N34W. The ITCZ extends from 05N45W to 05N54W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 11N between 30W-40W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
See details above about a Gulf of America Gale Warning.
An upper-level trough over the south-central US and a surface
trough in the western Gulf are supporting numerous showers and
thunderstorms across much of the interior Gulf. Another surface
trough along the Mexican coast supports scattered moderate
convection offshore Veracruz. A cold front has entered the far NW
Gulf and extends from 30N93W to 26N97W. Fresh to strong N winds
and building seas follow the front.
For the forecast, cold front is forecast to reach from near Tampa
Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by early Sat morning,
and from the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf to the eastern
Bay of Campeche by early Sun morning. The front will be just SE of
the area on Mon where it will gradually dissipate. Strong gale
force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected in the wake
of the front over the west-central Gulf tonight, and over the
southwest Gulf by Sat morning. Frequent gusts to gale- force are
forecast elsewhere NW of the front tonight into Sat morning.
Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build over the lower
Mississippi Valley behind the wake of the front, promoting fresh
to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf
likely through Tue.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Upper-level diffluence over the NW Caribbean is supporting
numerous moderate to strong convection W of 80W. Otherwise, the
seasonal pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh trades
through the basin, with strong easterly winds offshore Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas prevail across much of
the Caribbean, with rough seas offshore Colombia.
For the forecast, as a cold front moves across the Western
Atlantic and the Gulf of America, the pressure gradient will relax
across the basin. Under this weather pattern, expect moderate to
fresh winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela with
moderate to locally rough seas near the coast of Colombia tonight
and Sat. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are
forecast elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms
associated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW
Caribbean tonight. Moisture associated with this feature will
merge with the cold front moving across the Gulf this weekend. The
front will likely reach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel by
Tue.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 31N45W to 28N50W, and then is
stationary to 25N70W. Moderate to fresh SW winds, 7-9 ft combined
seas in NW swell, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are
active along the front east of 51W. To the south, a surface trough
is analyzed along 53W from 12N to 19N, with an upper level low
nearby supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
along 50W from 14N to 19N. To the northeast, a surface trough is
analyzed from 27N37W to 20N39W with a 1011 mb low along the
trough near 23N38W. These features are also driving fresh to
strong SE winds E of the trough to about 30W and N of 20N.
Diffluence aloft and east of this trough supports numerous showers
and thunderstorms from 17N to 27N between 25W and 35W. Elsewhere
across the Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and seas are evident
across the basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure off the Carolinas
will shift eastward ahead of a strong cold front that will move
off the coast of northeast Florida by early Sat morning. The front
will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun
morning, and from near 31N71W to western Cuba by early Mon
morning, then stall and dissipate through early next week. Strong
to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow
the front affecting mainly the waters W of 65W through Tue.
$$
Adams/Landsea
Active Tropical Systems
- Sun, 18 Oct 2026 11:16:00 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 16 Oct 2026 23:35:49 GMT - Fri, 16 Oct 2026 23:16:00 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
085
ABNT20 KNHC 162315
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Fri, 16 Oct 2026 14:50:54 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 161450
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1050 AM EDT FRI 16 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-138
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE TRUDY
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 17/1730Z A. 18/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0321E TRUDY B. AFXXX 0421E TRUDY
C. 17/1300Z C. 17/2300Z
D. 17.3N 104.3W D. 18.9N 105.3W
E. 17/1700Z TO 17/2030Z E. 18/0300Z TO 18/0630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX G. FIX
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: ANOTHER FIX MISSION INTO TRUDY FOR
18/1730Z.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf