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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Thu, 01 Oct 2026 17:10:03 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 011709
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Oct 1 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 31W from
06N to 20N, moving westward at about 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 09N to 15N between 26W and 38W.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has been analyzed along 66W
from 19N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are occurring E of the wave axis to
about 62W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and continues
to 11N36W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 10N44W to the coastal border
of Venezuela and Guyana. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
seen from 03N to 11N and E of 20W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Divergence aloft, abundant moisture, and a surface trough over the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula combine to produce a few showers and
thunderstorms over the SE Gulf waters S of 28N and E of 88W. A
surface trough analyzed from the Bay of Campeche along the E coast
of Mexico supports more scattered showers and thunderstorms over
the western Gulf waters. Otherwise, a modest pressure gradient
supports moderate to fresh ESE winds and 3-6 ft seas across much
of the Gulf.
For the forecast, an upper-level low will promote scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SE Gulf today,
spreading to the N Gulf on Fri. A tightening pressure gradient
will increase SE winds up to fresh to locally strong over the E
and central Gulf tonight into Fri night. An weak cold moving
across Texas will weaken the pressure gradient, allowing the winds
across the Gulf to diminish on Sat and Sun. On Sun, the front
will reach the NW Gulf, extending from the Florida panhandle to
just offshore the Texas-Mexico border to near Veracruz on Mon
morning. Winds behind the front should only be N to NE moderate to
locally fresh.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in
the eastern Caribbean.
A middle to upper level low over the Yucatan Peninsula is drawing
abundant moisture from the E Pacific into the W Caribbean, which
continues to fuel scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W
of 75W. The East Pacific monsoon trough also extends across the
far SW Caribbean, supporting scattered strong convection S of 13N
between 75W and 82W. High pressure north of the area is
supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across much of
the Caribbean and moderate seas. Winds up to strong speeds are
observed off NW Colombia and in the Gulfs of Venezuela and
Honduras.
For the forecast, an upper-level low currently over the Yucatan
with abundant tropical moisture will support scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms west of 80W through Fri. The pressure
gradient between the Bermuda High north of the Caribbean and the
Colombian Low will tighten some between tonight and Sat night.
This will force fresh to locally strong trades over the S central
Caribbean and over the Gulf of Honduras. As a frontal boundary
reaches the waters north of the Bahamas, the pressure gradient
will slacken again from Sun through early next week leading toward
only moderate trades across the Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Divergence aloft and abundant moisture continues to sustain
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 70W.
Meanwhile, the remnants of Fay are interacting with an upper-level
low to produce scattered moderate to strong convection from 22N
to 28N and between 53W and 60W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds
and seas of 6-8 ft are found in the area described. To the SE, a
surface trough analyzed from 18N33W to 11N43W is supporting
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along and near the
trough axis.
In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh easterly
winds prevail S of 20N and west of 30W, with moderate to fresh NE
winds prevailing across all areas E of 30W away from the monsoon
trough. Areas north of 20N are seeing gentle to moderate or
weaker winds prevail, outside of the Bahamas where a surface
trough along the FL Peninsula is forcing moderate to fresh SE
winds. Seas are 6-10 ft across areas N of 20N and E of 30W, where
post-frontal northerly swell is supporting these higher wave
heights. Seas are 4-7 ft across much of the remaining Atlantic
away from the remnants of Fay.
For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 75W
through at least Fri. Meanwhile, a surface trough - associated
with the remnants of Fay - will support similar shower and
thunderstorm activity over the next couple days north of 22N and
east of 65W. Trades just north of Hispaniola will boost to fresh
to locally strong tonight and Fri night. Otherwise, winds and seas
will be quiescent through Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front may
reach the waters off of NE Florida Mon night, with increasing
winds and building seas behind the boundary.
$$
Adams
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Thu, 01 Oct 2026 17:10:03 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 011709
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Oct 1 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 31W from
06N to 20N, moving westward at about 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 09N to 15N between 26W and 38W.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has been analyzed along 66W
from 19N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are occurring E of the wave axis to
about 62W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and continues
to 11N36W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 10N44W to the coastal border
of Venezuela and Guyana. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
seen from 03N to 11N and E of 20W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Divergence aloft, abundant moisture, and a surface trough over the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula combine to produce a few showers and
thunderstorms over the SE Gulf waters S of 28N and E of 88W. A
surface trough analyzed from the Bay of Campeche along the E coast
of Mexico supports more scattered showers and thunderstorms over
the western Gulf waters. Otherwise, a modest pressure gradient
supports moderate to fresh ESE winds and 3-6 ft seas across much
of the Gulf.
For the forecast, an upper-level low will promote scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SE Gulf today,
spreading to the N Gulf on Fri. A tightening pressure gradient
will increase SE winds up to fresh to locally strong over the E
and central Gulf tonight into Fri night. An weak cold moving
across Texas will weaken the pressure gradient, allowing the winds
across the Gulf to diminish on Sat and Sun. On Sun, the front
will reach the NW Gulf, extending from the Florida panhandle to
just offshore the Texas-Mexico border to near Veracruz on Mon
morning. Winds behind the front should only be N to NE moderate to
locally fresh.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in
the eastern Caribbean.
A middle to upper level low over the Yucatan Peninsula is drawing
abundant moisture from the E Pacific into the W Caribbean, which
continues to fuel scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W
of 75W. The East Pacific monsoon trough also extends across the
far SW Caribbean, supporting scattered strong convection S of 13N
between 75W and 82W. High pressure north of the area is
supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across much of
the Caribbean and moderate seas. Winds up to strong speeds are
observed off NW Colombia and in the Gulfs of Venezuela and
Honduras.
For the forecast, an upper-level low currently over the Yucatan
with abundant tropical moisture will support scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms west of 80W through Fri. The pressure
gradient between the Bermuda High north of the Caribbean and the
Colombian Low will tighten some between tonight and Sat night.
This will force fresh to locally strong trades over the S central
Caribbean and over the Gulf of Honduras. As a frontal boundary
reaches the waters north of the Bahamas, the pressure gradient
will slacken again from Sun through early next week leading toward
only moderate trades across the Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Divergence aloft and abundant moisture continues to sustain
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 70W.
Meanwhile, the remnants of Fay are interacting with an upper-level
low to produce scattered moderate to strong convection from 22N
to 28N and between 53W and 60W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds
and seas of 6-8 ft are found in the area described. To the SE, a
surface trough analyzed from 18N33W to 11N43W is supporting
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along and near the
trough axis.
In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh easterly
winds prevail S of 20N and west of 30W, with moderate to fresh NE
winds prevailing across all areas E of 30W away from the monsoon
trough. Areas north of 20N are seeing gentle to moderate or
weaker winds prevail, outside of the Bahamas where a surface
trough along the FL Peninsula is forcing moderate to fresh SE
winds. Seas are 6-10 ft across areas N of 20N and E of 30W, where
post-frontal northerly swell is supporting these higher wave
heights. Seas are 4-7 ft across much of the remaining Atlantic
away from the remnants of Fay.
For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 75W
through at least Fri. Meanwhile, a surface trough - associated
with the remnants of Fay - will support similar shower and
thunderstorm activity over the next couple days north of 22N and
east of 65W. Trades just north of Hispaniola will boost to fresh
to locally strong tonight and Fri night. Otherwise, winds and seas
will be quiescent through Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front may
reach the waters off of NE Florida Mon night, with increasing
winds and building seas behind the boundary.
$$
Adams
Active Tropical Systems
- Sat, 03 Oct 2026 05:51:03 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 01 Oct 2026 21:29:06 GMT - Thu, 01 Oct 2026 17:51:03 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 011750
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Subtropical Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay):
A low pressure area associated with the remnants of former Tropical
Storm Fay is located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda.
While thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, dry air
and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant
re-development while it moves northwestward, to the east of Bermuda.
Any formation chances should end by Sunday due to very strong
upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Thu, 01 Oct 2026 15:09:04 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 011508
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT THU 01 OCTOBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-123
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf