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DONATE2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Thu, 09 Oct 2025 18:26:23 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 091826
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Oct 9 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Jerry:
Tropical Storm Jerry is near 15.9N 59.1W or about 270 nm ESE of
the Northern Leeward Islands at 09/1500Z. It is moving west-
northwest at 16 kt and the estimated minimum central pressure is
999 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.
Seas are peaking near 23 ft just northeast of the center. Heavy
rain and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 140 nm in a
southeastern semicircle, and up to 50 nm in northwestern
semicircle from the center. Jerry is expected to turn toward the
northwest later today, then toward the north with a decrease in
forward speed Friday and Saturday. This will bring Jerry close or
just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands later today and
tonight. Gradual strengthening is anticipated and Jerry could
become a hurricane late Friday or early Saturday. Swells
generated by Jerry are beginning to reach the Leeward and Windward
Islands. These swells will spread westward toward the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, then toward the rest of the
Greater Antilles over the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.shtml for more details.
For the latest Jerry NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory,
please visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
Significant Rainfall Across Eastern Mexico:
Convergent low-level winds and abundant tropical moisture will
continue to trigger periodic heavy showers and isolated
thunderstorms today, across eastern Mexico along the Bay of
Campeche from near the border of Tamaulipas and San Luis Potosi
States southward to central Veracruz States. Locally heavy
downpours can still lead to flash and urban flooding, especially
in low-lying areas and hilly terrains. Please, stay up to date
with the latest forecast and possible flood statements from your
local weather agency.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W from 20N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Very dry air at low to mid levels
are prohibiting any significant convection.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from the Dominican
Republic southward to northwestern Venezuela. It is moving west
around 10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are seen over Hispaniola.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from the Cayman
Islands southward to near western Panama. It is moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are
occurring across the waters north of Costa Rica, Panama and
northwestern Colombia.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea-Bissau
coast near Bissau, then curves west-southwestward to 10N18W. An
ITCZ then continues from 10N18W across 08N35W to 08N50W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up near and up
to 125 nm north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Scattered moderate
convection is seen south of the trough and ITCZ from 04N to 09N
between 16W and 30W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please read the Special Features section on potential heavy rain
across eastern Mexico.
Convergent surface winds are coupling with tropical moisture to
cause scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms at the
southwestern Gulf. A surface trough stretching across the Florida
Straits is producing isolated thunderstorms near southern Florida,
including the Florida Keys. Otherwise, a weak cold front extends
west-southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to the northwest
Gulf where it continues as a stationary front to beyond Corpus
Christi. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft
are present north of 22N, and light to gentle with locally
moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the
Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.
For the forecast, a trough of low pressure associated with some
disorganized showers and thunderstorms has moved inland over
southern Mexico, and development is not expected. Heavy rain and
gusty winds will continue across portions of southern Mexico
today. Elsewhere, a building high pressure north of the Gulf will
promote moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf
today through Sat, with fresh to strong NE winds over the
northeastern Gulf waters.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Special Features section about Tropical Storm
Jerry.
Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the
Caribbean Sea. Moderate with locally fresh NE to ESE trades and
seas of 2 to 4 ft exist at the south-central basin. Light to
gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean
Sea. .
For the forecast, Tropical Storm Jerry will pass to the northeast
and bring brief fresh to strong southerly winds to the Leeward
Islands Fri. Otherwise, no significant wind from Jerry is expected
to affect the Caribbean. However, large E swell will move through
the Caribbean passages of the Leeward Islands this afternoon
through Fri, and then NE swell through the Anegada Passage early
Fri through Sat. High pressure will begin to build from the
central Atlantic to the Bahamas late Sun and Mon, and reintroduce
easterly trade winds across the eastern basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the Special Features section at the very beginning
on Tropical Storm Jerry.
A stationary front curves west-southwestward from the north-
central Atlantic across 31N33W to south of Bermuda at 29N64W. A
surface trough is seen farther west near 68W, northeast of the
Bahamas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
evident near and up to 165 nm south of the front. Similar
convection is found near and southeast of the trough from 21N to
27N between 60W and 71W. Another surface trough is generating
widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the east
Florida coast. Moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft are dominating waters north of 23N and west of
69W. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas north of
24N between 35W and 69W. For the tropical Atlantic water from 08N
to 23N/24N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles/central Bahamas,
outside the direct impact of Tropical Storm Jerry, moderate to
fresh with locally strong NE to SE winds and seas at 7 to 12 ft
are noted. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ESE to SE winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W.
For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Jerry will move to
17.1N 60.9W this evening, 19.0N 62.4W Fri morning, strengthen to a
hurricane near 21.7N 63.1W Fri evening, 24.2N 63.2W Sat morning,
26.5N 62.9W Sat evening, and 28.5N 62.4W Sun morning. Jerry will
change little in intensity as it moves to near 31.3N 59.4W early
Mon. An extratropical low pressure system is expected to develop
offshore of northeastern Florida Sat and move northeastward
through the weekend. Fresh to strong E winds are expected to occur
north of a warm frontal boundary near 30N Fri. A cold front will
develop W of the low on Sat across the extreme NW waters and north
Florida, producing fresh to strong N to NE winds and building
seas across the Florida coastal waters north of the NW Bahamas
from Sat through Sun morning.
$$
Chan
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Thu, 09 Oct 2025 18:26:23 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 091826
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Oct 9 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Jerry:
Tropical Storm Jerry is near 15.9N 59.1W or about 270 nm ESE of
the Northern Leeward Islands at 09/1500Z. It is moving west-
northwest at 16 kt and the estimated minimum central pressure is
999 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.
Seas are peaking near 23 ft just northeast of the center. Heavy
rain and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 140 nm in a
southeastern semicircle, and up to 50 nm in northwestern
semicircle from the center. Jerry is expected to turn toward the
northwest later today, then toward the north with a decrease in
forward speed Friday and Saturday. This will bring Jerry close or
just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands later today and
tonight. Gradual strengthening is anticipated and Jerry could
become a hurricane late Friday or early Saturday. Swells
generated by Jerry are beginning to reach the Leeward and Windward
Islands. These swells will spread westward toward the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, then toward the rest of the
Greater Antilles over the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.shtml for more details.
For the latest Jerry NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory,
please visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
Significant Rainfall Across Eastern Mexico:
Convergent low-level winds and abundant tropical moisture will
continue to trigger periodic heavy showers and isolated
thunderstorms today, across eastern Mexico along the Bay of
Campeche from near the border of Tamaulipas and San Luis Potosi
States southward to central Veracruz States. Locally heavy
downpours can still lead to flash and urban flooding, especially
in low-lying areas and hilly terrains. Please, stay up to date
with the latest forecast and possible flood statements from your
local weather agency.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W from 20N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Very dry air at low to mid levels
are prohibiting any significant convection.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from the Dominican
Republic southward to northwestern Venezuela. It is moving west
around 10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are seen over Hispaniola.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from the Cayman
Islands southward to near western Panama. It is moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are
occurring across the waters north of Costa Rica, Panama and
northwestern Colombia.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea-Bissau
coast near Bissau, then curves west-southwestward to 10N18W. An
ITCZ then continues from 10N18W across 08N35W to 08N50W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up near and up
to 125 nm north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Scattered moderate
convection is seen south of the trough and ITCZ from 04N to 09N
between 16W and 30W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please read the Special Features section on potential heavy rain
across eastern Mexico.
Convergent surface winds are coupling with tropical moisture to
cause scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms at the
southwestern Gulf. A surface trough stretching across the Florida
Straits is producing isolated thunderstorms near southern Florida,
including the Florida Keys. Otherwise, a weak cold front extends
west-southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to the northwest
Gulf where it continues as a stationary front to beyond Corpus
Christi. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft
are present north of 22N, and light to gentle with locally
moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the
Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.
For the forecast, a trough of low pressure associated with some
disorganized showers and thunderstorms has moved inland over
southern Mexico, and development is not expected. Heavy rain and
gusty winds will continue across portions of southern Mexico
today. Elsewhere, a building high pressure north of the Gulf will
promote moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf
today through Sat, with fresh to strong NE winds over the
northeastern Gulf waters.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Special Features section about Tropical Storm
Jerry.
Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the
Caribbean Sea. Moderate with locally fresh NE to ESE trades and
seas of 2 to 4 ft exist at the south-central basin. Light to
gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean
Sea. .
For the forecast, Tropical Storm Jerry will pass to the northeast
and bring brief fresh to strong southerly winds to the Leeward
Islands Fri. Otherwise, no significant wind from Jerry is expected
to affect the Caribbean. However, large E swell will move through
the Caribbean passages of the Leeward Islands this afternoon
through Fri, and then NE swell through the Anegada Passage early
Fri through Sat. High pressure will begin to build from the
central Atlantic to the Bahamas late Sun and Mon, and reintroduce
easterly trade winds across the eastern basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the Special Features section at the very beginning
on Tropical Storm Jerry.
A stationary front curves west-southwestward from the north-
central Atlantic across 31N33W to south of Bermuda at 29N64W. A
surface trough is seen farther west near 68W, northeast of the
Bahamas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
evident near and up to 165 nm south of the front. Similar
convection is found near and southeast of the trough from 21N to
27N between 60W and 71W. Another surface trough is generating
widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the east
Florida coast. Moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft are dominating waters north of 23N and west of
69W. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas north of
24N between 35W and 69W. For the tropical Atlantic water from 08N
to 23N/24N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles/central Bahamas,
outside the direct impact of Tropical Storm Jerry, moderate to
fresh with locally strong NE to SE winds and seas at 7 to 12 ft
are noted. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ESE to SE winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W.
For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Jerry will move to
17.1N 60.9W this evening, 19.0N 62.4W Fri morning, strengthen to a
hurricane near 21.7N 63.1W Fri evening, 24.2N 63.2W Sat morning,
26.5N 62.9W Sat evening, and 28.5N 62.4W Sun morning. Jerry will
change little in intensity as it moves to near 31.3N 59.4W early
Mon. An extratropical low pressure system is expected to develop
offshore of northeastern Florida Sat and move northeastward
through the weekend. Fresh to strong E winds are expected to occur
north of a warm frontal boundary near 30N Fri. A cold front will
develop W of the low on Sat across the extreme NW waters and north
Florida, producing fresh to strong N to NE winds and building
seas across the Florida coastal waters north of the NW Bahamas
from Sat through Sun morning.
$$
Chan
Active Tropical Systems
- Thu, 09 Oct 2025 20:39:33 +0000: Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics - NHC Atlantic
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Oct 2025 20:39:07 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Oct 2025 20:39:07 GMT - Thu, 09 Oct 2025 20:36:57 +0000: Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 10 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025000 WTNT45 KNHC 092036 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 500 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025 Satellite images, aircraft observations, and ASCAT data indicate that Jerry is a poorly organized and strongly sheared tropical storm. The low-level center is now fully exposed and elongated, with the main area of deep convection located on the system's south and southeast sides. The initial intensity is again held at 55 kt, but that could be a little generous. The center of Jerry is less than 100 miles from the northern Leeward Islands, which is often close enough to experience strong winds. However, the ASCAT and aircraft data showed that the strongest winds are confined to a region east of the center. In fact, winds are quite light on the west side. Jerry has been moving erratically today, but smoothing through the fixes suggest that the storm is gradually turning to the right. The initial motion is now estimated to be 300/16 kt. This general motion should continue through early Friday, taking the center of the system near or over the northern Leeward Islands during that time. However, as mentioned above, the strongest winds should pass to the east of the islands due to Jerry's asymmetric structure. A turn to the north is expected to occur by late tomorrow, and that motion should continue through most of the weekend as the storm moves in the flow on the western side of a subtropical ridge. Early next week, a faster eastward or east-northeastward motion is forecast in the mid-latitude westerlies. Jerry is expected to pass east of Bermuda in a few days, and given its expected eastward asymmetry, significant impacts appear unlikely there. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast, and this prediction is in best agreement with the HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Strengthening in the short term seems unlikely given Jerry's poor initial structure. However, after the storm passes the northern Leeward Islands, the vertical wind shear could decrease some while Jerry remains over warm water and in a moist air mass. Therefore, slow strengthening is predicted from late Friday through Sunday. The opportunity for strengthening will likely end early next week when the system moves into stronger shear and over cooler waters. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged downward due to a combination of the storm's poor initial structure and latest guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and are possible in the watch area this evening through Friday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands, British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Friday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban areas and in steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 17.3N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 18.6N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 21.0N 63.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 23.7N 63.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 26.5N 63.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 28.4N 62.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 30.7N 61.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 32.3N 57.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 32.2N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
- Thu, 09 Oct 2025 20:36:28 +0000: Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 09 2025000 FONT15 KNHC 092036 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025 2100 UTC THU OCT 09 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) 1(18) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT JOHN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 6 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SABA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARBUDA 34 66 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) BARBUDA 50 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ANTIGUA 34 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GUADELOUPE 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI - Thu, 09 Oct 2025 20:35:57 +0000: Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 10 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025000 WTNT35 KNHC 092035 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 500 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025 ...JERRY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 60.6W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * St. Barthelemy and St. Martin * Sint Maarten * Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 60.6 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected by the evening, followed by a slightly slower northward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near the northern Leeward Islands this evening and tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tomorrow, but slow strengthening is possible over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km), mainly east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area and are possible in the watch area tonight and Friday morning. RAINFALL: Through Friday, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected across the island of Barbuda. Elsewhere across the Leeward and Virgin Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steep terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico, moisture associated with Jerry combined with local orographic effects may result in up to 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated 6 inches possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service storm total rainfall graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater Antilles over the next couple of days, are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
- Thu, 09 Oct 2025 20:35:57 +0000: Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102025) - NHC Atlantic
...JERRY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Oct 09 the center of Jerry was located near 17.3, -60.6 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Thu, 09 Oct 2025 14:59:48 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 091459
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 09 OCTOBER 2025
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z OCTOBER 2025
TCPOD NUMBER.....25-131
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
KAL
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf