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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sun, 19 Jul 2026 09:40:43 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 190940
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jul 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The subtropical ridge north of the
Caribbean will support gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia
through near sunrise this morning, and strong to near- gale force
easterly trade winds across the much of the central Caribbean
into early Mon, before becoming confined to south of 15N through
midweek. Winds will pulse to gale force over the waters north of
Colombia tonight. Rough to very rough seas, peaking at 12 to 13
ft, will develop during the times of peak winds.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
NE Gulf of America (Invest AL91): Recent satellite scatterometer wind
data and nearby surface observations indicate that an area of low
pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of America is slowly
becoming better defined. However, its associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and displaced well the
southwest and west of the low. This activity may produce gusty
winds, frequent lightning and rough seas. Mariners should exercise
caution across this area. Regardless, gradual development of this
system is forecast, and a tropical depression could form over the
next couple of days as the system moves slowly northward or
northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast from
Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, to Louisiana should monitor the
progress of this system as it is expected to bring heavy rain to
portions of that region during the next several days. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system later today, if necessary. This system has a medium chance
for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.
Please refer to the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the
National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more
information.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A well-defined tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is now along
34W, south of 19N, based on recent satellite and scatterometer
data. The wave is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant
convection is observed near this wave due to dry Saharan air.
An Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W, south of 18N, moving
westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the
wave along the ITCZ, from 10N to 12.5N and between 57W and 62W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward through the
Cabo Verde Islands to 15N30W and then to 06.5N42.5W. The ITCZ
extends from 06.5N42.5W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is moving off the coast of Africa from 07.5N to 14.5N
and E of 18W. Scattered moderate convection is found N of the ITCZ
from 06.5N to 09.5N between 41W and 57W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please refer to the Special Features section for information on a
broad low pressure over the eastern Gulf that has a medium chance
of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. A 1012 mb
low center is analyzed near 27.5N 85.5W and is nearly stationary.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is occurring in broken bands from 120 to 300 nm around the
periphery of this low, except for the N semicircle. Recent
satellite scatterometer wind data showed strong gusty winds to
near 30 kt in some of these thunderstorms. Seas are estimated at
2 to 5 ft across this area.
Elsewhere, dry air dominates the remainder of the basin
suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. A 1018
mb high pressure over the NW Gulf waters supports moderate to
fresh NE winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the eastern Bay of Campeche,
while light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure over the eastern
Gulf is expected to move slowly north to northwestward over the
next couple of days, and could become a tropical depression.
Regardless, this system will bring thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall and strong gusty winds to the NE Gulf and adjacent
portions of the Gulf coast through at least Tue. Away from this
system, weak high pressure will dominate, producing gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through the period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A Gale Warning remains in effect for the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia until near sunrise. Please refer to
the Special Features section for more details.
The 1024 mb subtropical ridge centered near 28.5N59W in the
central Atlantic and extends westward to the coast of Florida.
The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge is forcing strong
to near-gale easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean,
with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia. Rough to very
rough seas are found in these waters. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds
and moderate seas are present in the eastern Caribbean and
Windward Passage. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms that developed over Panama and Costa Rica have
shifted inland, while scattered moderate convection associated
with a tropical wave is moving into the southern Windward
Islands. Generally dry weather conditions are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the western Atlantic
high pressure ridge oriented along 28N, and the Colombian low
will support NE winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N
of Colombia through early this morning. Otherwise, strong to
near- gale force trade winds and rough seas will prevail across
the much of the central Caribbean into Sun night, before
contracting to south of 15N Mon through Thu. East winds will
pulse fresh to locally strong each evening through Tue in the
Windward Passage.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A couple of weak surface troughs and an upper level low in the
north- central tropical Atlantic combine to generate isolated
showers north of 23N and between 37W and 53W. Meanwhile, a broad
subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic forces fresh
to locally strong easterly trade winds off northern Hispaniola as
shown in a recent satellite scatterometer data. Elsewhere in the
central and western Atlantic, moderate to fresh easterly winds and
seas of 4-8 ft are occurring south of 24N and west of 45W,
with highest seas to 8 ft E of the Windward Islands.
In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong N to NE
winds and seas of 4-8 ft are present north of the monsoon trough
and east of 25W. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail within the ridge axis.
For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical ridge
along 28N-29N this morning will weaken and drift northward
through early next week as a broad surface trough forms E of 50W.
This trough will shift westward and reach 65W by Wed, then move W
of 70W and weaken quickly Thu. Moderate to fresh trades will
prevail S of 24N through Tue, with gentle winds to the N. Pulsing
strong winds are expected during the evenings through Tue N of
Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. Expect increasing winds
and seas N of 22N and E of 70W Tue through Wed night as the trough
approaches.
$$
Stripling
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sun, 19 Jul 2026 09:40:43 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 190940
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jul 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The subtropical ridge north of the
Caribbean will support gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia
through near sunrise this morning, and strong to near- gale force
easterly trade winds across the much of the central Caribbean
into early Mon, before becoming confined to south of 15N through
midweek. Winds will pulse to gale force over the waters north of
Colombia tonight. Rough to very rough seas, peaking at 12 to 13
ft, will develop during the times of peak winds.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
NE Gulf of America (Invest AL91): Recent satellite scatterometer wind
data and nearby surface observations indicate that an area of low
pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of America is slowly
becoming better defined. However, its associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and displaced well the
southwest and west of the low. This activity may produce gusty
winds, frequent lightning and rough seas. Mariners should exercise
caution across this area. Regardless, gradual development of this
system is forecast, and a tropical depression could form over the
next couple of days as the system moves slowly northward or
northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast from
Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, to Louisiana should monitor the
progress of this system as it is expected to bring heavy rain to
portions of that region during the next several days. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system later today, if necessary. This system has a medium chance
for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.
Please refer to the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the
National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more
information.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A well-defined tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is now along
34W, south of 19N, based on recent satellite and scatterometer
data. The wave is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant
convection is observed near this wave due to dry Saharan air.
An Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W, south of 18N, moving
westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the
wave along the ITCZ, from 10N to 12.5N and between 57W and 62W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward through the
Cabo Verde Islands to 15N30W and then to 06.5N42.5W. The ITCZ
extends from 06.5N42.5W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is moving off the coast of Africa from 07.5N to 14.5N
and E of 18W. Scattered moderate convection is found N of the ITCZ
from 06.5N to 09.5N between 41W and 57W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please refer to the Special Features section for information on a
broad low pressure over the eastern Gulf that has a medium chance
of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. A 1012 mb
low center is analyzed near 27.5N 85.5W and is nearly stationary.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is occurring in broken bands from 120 to 300 nm around the
periphery of this low, except for the N semicircle. Recent
satellite scatterometer wind data showed strong gusty winds to
near 30 kt in some of these thunderstorms. Seas are estimated at
2 to 5 ft across this area.
Elsewhere, dry air dominates the remainder of the basin
suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. A 1018
mb high pressure over the NW Gulf waters supports moderate to
fresh NE winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the eastern Bay of Campeche,
while light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure over the eastern
Gulf is expected to move slowly north to northwestward over the
next couple of days, and could become a tropical depression.
Regardless, this system will bring thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall and strong gusty winds to the NE Gulf and adjacent
portions of the Gulf coast through at least Tue. Away from this
system, weak high pressure will dominate, producing gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through the period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A Gale Warning remains in effect for the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia until near sunrise. Please refer to
the Special Features section for more details.
The 1024 mb subtropical ridge centered near 28.5N59W in the
central Atlantic and extends westward to the coast of Florida.
The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge is forcing strong
to near-gale easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean,
with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia. Rough to very
rough seas are found in these waters. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds
and moderate seas are present in the eastern Caribbean and
Windward Passage. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms that developed over Panama and Costa Rica have
shifted inland, while scattered moderate convection associated
with a tropical wave is moving into the southern Windward
Islands. Generally dry weather conditions are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the western Atlantic
high pressure ridge oriented along 28N, and the Colombian low
will support NE winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N
of Colombia through early this morning. Otherwise, strong to
near- gale force trade winds and rough seas will prevail across
the much of the central Caribbean into Sun night, before
contracting to south of 15N Mon through Thu. East winds will
pulse fresh to locally strong each evening through Tue in the
Windward Passage.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A couple of weak surface troughs and an upper level low in the
north- central tropical Atlantic combine to generate isolated
showers north of 23N and between 37W and 53W. Meanwhile, a broad
subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic forces fresh
to locally strong easterly trade winds off northern Hispaniola as
shown in a recent satellite scatterometer data. Elsewhere in the
central and western Atlantic, moderate to fresh easterly winds and
seas of 4-8 ft are occurring south of 24N and west of 45W,
with highest seas to 8 ft E of the Windward Islands.
In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong N to NE
winds and seas of 4-8 ft are present north of the monsoon trough
and east of 25W. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail within the ridge axis.
For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical ridge
along 28N-29N this morning will weaken and drift northward
through early next week as a broad surface trough forms E of 50W.
This trough will shift westward and reach 65W by Wed, then move W
of 70W and weaken quickly Thu. Moderate to fresh trades will
prevail S of 24N through Tue, with gentle winds to the N. Pulsing
strong winds are expected during the evenings through Tue N of
Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. Expect increasing winds
and seas N of 22N and E of 70W Tue through Wed night as the trough
approaches.
$$
Stripling
Active Tropical Systems
- Mon, 20 Jul 2026 23:20:22 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 19 Jul 2026 12:10:05 GMT - Sun, 19 Jul 2026 11:20:22 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
953
ABNT20 KNHC 191120
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
An area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of
America continues to become better defined and the associated shower
and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued
gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely
to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly
northward or northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast
from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor
the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings
could be required for portions of the area later today. In
addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions
of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the low pressure area later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sat, 18 Jul 2026 16:24:46 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 181624
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1225 PM EDT SAT 18 JULY 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JULY 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-048 CORRECTION
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHEAST GULF OF AMERICA - AL91)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 19/1800Z A. 20/0600Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 02AAA SURVEY
C. 19/1700Z C. 20/0500Z
D. 28.5N 85.0W D. 29.1N 85.1W
E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2230Z E. 20/0530Z TO 20/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST G. SYSTEM SURVEY
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION
FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
A. 20/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0302A CYCLONE
C. 20/1030Z
D. 29.3N 85.2W
E. 20/1100Z TO 20/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON AL91 IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf