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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Thu, 17 Sep 2026 05:11:52 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 170511
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Sep 17 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 27W, south
of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 16N between 25W and 34W.
The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W, south
of 22N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 13N to 23N between 59W and 67W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W to 09N37W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N37W to 08N57W. Aside from convection noted
in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate
convection is noted within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 44W and
55W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Fresh to strong winds, and moderate seas, prevail in the NE Gulf
as a pressure gradient related to high pressure over the eastern
U.S. that stretches a ridge SW to the SE US. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds, and slight seas, are noted.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to
rough seas will spread westward over the northern Gulf waters
through late Thu night before improving Fri into Sat, leading to
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas during the
weekend. Meanwhile, a rather broad mid to upper-level trough will
move towards Florida from the western Atlantic Thu through Fri as
it transitions into a low pressure. This feature will lead to
increasing shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and
central Gulf waters.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between ridging north of the area along
with lower pressure over Colombia-Venezuela is supporting fresh to
near-gale trades over the S central Caribbean. Moderate to rough
seas are over these waters. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate
seas, are elsewhere east of 80W. W of 80W, gentle to moderate
winds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail.
For the forecast, fresh to near gale-force trades along with
moderate to rough seas will prevail over most of the central
Caribbean through the end of the week. Otherwise, moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas will continue across the eastern
Caribbean through the weekend while winds diminish and seas
subside elsewhere as the pressures gradient relaxes. A tropical
wave currently in the eastern Caribbean will reach the western
Caribbean during the upcoming weekend. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the passage of the wave.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from near Bermuda west-southwestward to
the N Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds, and moderate to rough seas,
prevail N of the front. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas,
are SE of the front N of 22N and W of 55W. Fresh to strong winds,
and moderate seas, are noted near the Canary Islands. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh northeast winds and moderate
seas will prevail W of the front through Thu. Conditions will
improve late Thu into Fri as high pressure becomes the dominant
feature across the basin into the weekend. Meanwhile, a broad mid
to upper-level trough located just east of the southeastern
Bahamas in combination with a very moist and unstable environment
will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over most of the forecast waters through the next
few days as the trough gradually transitions to a low pressure
that will be moving in a west to northwest direction.
$$
ERA
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Thu, 17 Sep 2026 05:11:52 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 170511
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Sep 17 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 27W, south
of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 16N between 25W and 34W.
The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W, south
of 22N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 13N to 23N between 59W and 67W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W to 09N37W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N37W to 08N57W. Aside from convection noted
in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate
convection is noted within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 44W and
55W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Fresh to strong winds, and moderate seas, prevail in the NE Gulf
as a pressure gradient related to high pressure over the eastern
U.S. that stretches a ridge SW to the SE US. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds, and slight seas, are noted.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to
rough seas will spread westward over the northern Gulf waters
through late Thu night before improving Fri into Sat, leading to
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas during the
weekend. Meanwhile, a rather broad mid to upper-level trough will
move towards Florida from the western Atlantic Thu through Fri as
it transitions into a low pressure. This feature will lead to
increasing shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and
central Gulf waters.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between ridging north of the area along
with lower pressure over Colombia-Venezuela is supporting fresh to
near-gale trades over the S central Caribbean. Moderate to rough
seas are over these waters. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate
seas, are elsewhere east of 80W. W of 80W, gentle to moderate
winds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail.
For the forecast, fresh to near gale-force trades along with
moderate to rough seas will prevail over most of the central
Caribbean through the end of the week. Otherwise, moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas will continue across the eastern
Caribbean through the weekend while winds diminish and seas
subside elsewhere as the pressures gradient relaxes. A tropical
wave currently in the eastern Caribbean will reach the western
Caribbean during the upcoming weekend. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the passage of the wave.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from near Bermuda west-southwestward to
the N Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds, and moderate to rough seas,
prevail N of the front. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas,
are SE of the front N of 22N and W of 55W. Fresh to strong winds,
and moderate seas, are noted near the Canary Islands. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh northeast winds and moderate
seas will prevail W of the front through Thu. Conditions will
improve late Thu into Fri as high pressure becomes the dominant
feature across the basin into the weekend. Meanwhile, a broad mid
to upper-level trough located just east of the southeastern
Bahamas in combination with a very moist and unstable environment
will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over most of the forecast waters through the next
few days as the trough gradually transitions to a low pressure
that will be moving in a west to northwest direction.
$$
ERA
Active Tropical Systems
- Fri, 18 Sep 2026 17:01:12 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 17 Sep 2026 06:10:06 GMT - Thu, 17 Sep 2026 05:01:12 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
571
ABNT20 KNHC 170500
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized over
the past day in association with a small area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. Environmental
conditions could support some additional gradual development over
the next few days while the system moves slowly westward today, and
then possibly turns southward on Friday over the subtropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Wed, 16 Sep 2026 13:13:18 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 161313
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT WED 16 SEPTEMBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-108
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf