2026 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

000
WTNT41 KNHC 192034
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026
 
A new burst of convection has formed over the depression, that
mostly covers the center of the system. However, the bulk of the
convection is still on the northern side of the cyclone at this
time, implying that some wind shear is still affecting it. The most 
recent TAFB Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, which is the same as the 
previous cycle. Therefore, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt 
for this advisory. 
 
Tropical Depression Six is still moving slowly, but has started to 
show a bit more motion towards the north-northeast. The cyclone 
should move more northeastward for roughly the next 36 h as a 
trough to the north weakens a low- to mid-level ridge to the 
northeast. Following this, at around 48 h, the ridge should build 
back towards the west, which in turn will force the cyclone to move 
southwestward for the rest of the forecast period. The current NHC 
forecast track is very similar to the previous forecast track with 
small adjustments to the track and speed, and remains in good 
agreement with HCCA and GDMI.

The cyclone should move into a slightly more favorable environment, 
between two areas of intense shear, and so there a good chance for 
intensification to occur for the next day or so. After 36 h, the 
system should move into an area of higher shear as the previously 
mentioned trough moves closer. This should lead to a gradual 
weakening of the system. The depression is expected to become a 
post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and then dissipate around 
120 h. There is still some uncertainty in the forecast of when the 
cyclone will become post-tropical and then dissipate, as both could 
possibly occur sooner than what is currently forecast. The new NHC 
intensity forecast is still in the middle of the guidance envelope, 
and is closely align with HCCA and just under GDMI for peak 
intensity. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 32.9N  33.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 33.3N  33.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 33.8N  32.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 33.7N  32.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 32.9N  32.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  22/0600Z 31.7N  33.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 30.5N  34.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/1800Z 28.6N  38.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Berg

000
FONT11 KNHC 192033
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062026               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KATZ

000
WTNT31 KNHC 192033
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 33.4W
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was 
located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 33.4 West. The 
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). 
The system is expected to generally move to the northeast for the 
next day or so, before turning toward the southwest in a couple of 
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. After 
that time, gradual weakening is expected to occur.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Berg