DONATE
2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Fri, 12 Jun 2026 04:55:23 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 120455
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jun 12 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize:
Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central
America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The
combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper
low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a
tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant
deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential
for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat.
Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern section
of the Yucatan Peninsula and over eastern Belize. The heaviest
rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period,
primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican
state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is
possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as
well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local
meteorological agencies for further guidance.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 22W, S of 15N,
moving westward near 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has is axis near 52W, S of 15N,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are active from
05N to 06N between 51W and 53W.
The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W, S of
16N, moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection
is active over the Caribbean, but scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted over central Venezuela near 08N65W.
Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 70W,
moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is
occurring at the present time with this wave over the Caribbean,
but scattered convection is noted over Venezuela near 11N69W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near
16N16W and extends southwestward to 06N28W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ to 04N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 14N between 11W and 26W, and from 04N to 08N between 30W
and 42W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong E
to SE winds off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. These
winds are between the western extension of the Atlantic ridge over
the eastern Gulf, and a trough reaching from the south-central
Gulf, across the Yucatan Peninsula and into northern Central
America. Seas are estimated to be 5-6 ft in this area. Associated
scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the Bay of
Campeche. The pattern is also supporting moderate SE winds
elsewhere across the western Gulf, with 3-5 ft seas, and gentle
southerly breezes over the eastern Gulf with 1-3 ft breezes.
For the forecast, high pressure will persist across northeastern
Gulf through Tue. Farther south, broad trough of low pressure
extending from the Yucatan Peninsula northeastward into the
southern Gulf will shift northwestward through the weekend, and
move inland across NE Mexico and S Texas on Sun. This pattern will
support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas
shifting from the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula to the coast of
Texas through early Sun, accompanied by numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Winds and seas will diminish early next week after
the low pressure moves inland and weakens.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong SE
winds across the far northwest Caribbean west of 80W, with near-
gale force wind between Roatan and northern Belize. These winds
are between the Atlantic ridge to the northeast, and a surface
trough over northern Central America. Seas are likely 6-8 ft in
this area. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely
across the northwest Caribbean, reaching eastward to the Windward
Passage. The pattern is also supporting fresh trade winds across
the south- central and southeast Caribbean, with strong winds
pulsing off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela. Moderate E
winds persist elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas.
For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in
place north of region through early next week to support a large
area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas
across the central Caribbean, as a pair of tropical waves move
westward across the region. Expect highest winds and seas off the
coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas will
also persist over the northwestern Caribbean, to the W of 83W,
including the Gulf of Honduras, through Sat night. Expect active
showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Yucatan Channel
and adjacent Yucatan waters through early Sat.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A few showers and thunderstorms remain active near 28N58W, on the
eastern end of a trough extending to 30N50W. A broad ridge extends
from the Azores to south of the trough near 24N50W, then across
Florida into the eastern Gulf. This pattern is support moderate to
fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-7 ft seas south of 22N and west
of 35W, and mostly gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the trough will shift NE and out of
the forecast waters through early Sat, then allow the ridge to
reorganize across the area through early next week. This pattern
will support moderate E-SE trade winds S of 23N and gentle
anticyclonic winds elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds will
develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun evening
through Tue, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S.
Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening
across waters near the Greater Antilles.
$$
Christensen
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Fri, 12 Jun 2026 04:55:23 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 120455
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jun 12 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize:
Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central
America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The
combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper
low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a
tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant
deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential
for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat.
Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern section
of the Yucatan Peninsula and over eastern Belize. The heaviest
rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period,
primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican
state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is
possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as
well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local
meteorological agencies for further guidance.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 22W, S of 15N,
moving westward near 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has is axis near 52W, S of 15N,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are active from
05N to 06N between 51W and 53W.
The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W, S of
16N, moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection
is active over the Caribbean, but scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted over central Venezuela near 08N65W.
Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 70W,
moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is
occurring at the present time with this wave over the Caribbean,
but scattered convection is noted over Venezuela near 11N69W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near
16N16W and extends southwestward to 06N28W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ to 04N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 14N between 11W and 26W, and from 04N to 08N between 30W
and 42W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong E
to SE winds off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. These
winds are between the western extension of the Atlantic ridge over
the eastern Gulf, and a trough reaching from the south-central
Gulf, across the Yucatan Peninsula and into northern Central
America. Seas are estimated to be 5-6 ft in this area. Associated
scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the Bay of
Campeche. The pattern is also supporting moderate SE winds
elsewhere across the western Gulf, with 3-5 ft seas, and gentle
southerly breezes over the eastern Gulf with 1-3 ft breezes.
For the forecast, high pressure will persist across northeastern
Gulf through Tue. Farther south, broad trough of low pressure
extending from the Yucatan Peninsula northeastward into the
southern Gulf will shift northwestward through the weekend, and
move inland across NE Mexico and S Texas on Sun. This pattern will
support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas
shifting from the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula to the coast of
Texas through early Sun, accompanied by numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Winds and seas will diminish early next week after
the low pressure moves inland and weakens.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong SE
winds across the far northwest Caribbean west of 80W, with near-
gale force wind between Roatan and northern Belize. These winds
are between the Atlantic ridge to the northeast, and a surface
trough over northern Central America. Seas are likely 6-8 ft in
this area. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely
across the northwest Caribbean, reaching eastward to the Windward
Passage. The pattern is also supporting fresh trade winds across
the south- central and southeast Caribbean, with strong winds
pulsing off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela. Moderate E
winds persist elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas.
For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in
place north of region through early next week to support a large
area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas
across the central Caribbean, as a pair of tropical waves move
westward across the region. Expect highest winds and seas off the
coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas will
also persist over the northwestern Caribbean, to the W of 83W,
including the Gulf of Honduras, through Sat night. Expect active
showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Yucatan Channel
and adjacent Yucatan waters through early Sat.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A few showers and thunderstorms remain active near 28N58W, on the
eastern end of a trough extending to 30N50W. A broad ridge extends
from the Azores to south of the trough near 24N50W, then across
Florida into the eastern Gulf. This pattern is support moderate to
fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-7 ft seas south of 22N and west
of 35W, and mostly gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the trough will shift NE and out of
the forecast waters through early Sat, then allow the ridge to
reorganize across the area through early next week. This pattern
will support moderate E-SE trade winds S of 23N and gentle
anticyclonic winds elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds will
develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun evening
through Tue, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S.
Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening
across waters near the Greater Antilles.
$$
Christensen
Active Tropical Systems
- Sat, 13 Jun 2026 17:03:00 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 12 Jun 2026 08:50:11 GMT - Fri, 12 Jun 2026 05:03:00 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 120502
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Bay of Campeche:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the
Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent Bay of Campeche, and a broad
area of low pressure is expected to form in this area later today.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally
conducive for development before the system moves inland over
eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Thu, 11 Jun 2026 13:35:48 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 111335
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0935 AM EDT THU 11 JUNE 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z JUNE 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-011
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf