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DONATE2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Wed, 22 Oct 2025 23:05:44 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 222305
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Oct 23 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Melissa is centered near 14.4N 74.3W at 2100 UTC,
or 280 nm SSW of Port Au Prince Haiti, moving WNW at 2 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed remains 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Melissa remains a
sheared tropical storm, with all significant convection occurring
on the eastern side of the circulation. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is occurring from 12N to 16N between 70W and
74.5W. Peak seas to near 20 ft are occurring near the center of
Melissa. Some gradual strengthening is anticipated to begin
tomorrow through Fri, then conditions are expected to become more
favorable for sustained strengthening, and Melissa could become a
hurricane by Sat. A continued slow forward speed and a gradual
turn to the northwest and north-northwest is expected during the
next couple of days, followed by a turn back westward by the end
of the week. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to
approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti later this
week. Swells generated by Melissa will continue to impact the
Caribbean coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during
the next couple of days. Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10
inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti,
and eastern Jamaica through Saturday, with locally higher amounts
possible. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday,
however, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces
confidence in exact totals. Significant flash flooding and
landslides are possible. Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican
Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of
rain is expected through Saturday. Flash and urban flooding will
be possible through at least Saturday.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near
27W, south of 16N, moving west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is
discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near
33W, south of 18N, moving west around 15 kt. Nearby convection is
discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 13.5N16.5W and
continues southwestward to 09.5N27W to 08.5N40W. The ITCZ continues
from 08.5N40W to 10.5N63W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 04.5N to 12N between 14W and 23W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 04N to 15.5N between 25W and 38W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front extends over the northern Gulf from near Hernando
Beach, Florida to North Padre Island, Texas. Recent satellite
scatterometer data showed moderate to locally fresh NE winds and
occurring north of the front, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Elsewhere,
a surface trough is analyzed over the southwestern Gulf, just
offshore of the coast of Mexico. Widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are near the trough over east-central Mexico. Weak
ridging over the remainder of the basin is supporting gentle to
moderate E to NE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas. Isolated clusters of
moderate convection are seen across south central portions of the
basin.
For the forecast, the cold front over the northern Gulf will move
southward across the eastern Gulf, and stall from the Florida
Keys to Louisiana by Fri morning, where it will dissipate through
Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through Thu. Winds
will increase over the eastern Gulf the end of the week into the
weekend as the pressure gradient tightens between the building
high pressure and Tropical Storm Melissa in the central Caribbean.
Little change in conditions is expected early next week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for specific information
on Tropical Storm Melissa. The broad circulation of Melissa now
covers the entire basin except for NW portions. Scattered squalls
and a few thunderstorms are occurring on the periphery of this
broad wind field, from the Gulf of Honduras to south of Jamaica,
and across the southeast Caribbean. Seas to 8 ft and higher have
moved to the south coast of Haiti and the eastern end of Jamaica,
and extend southward to near 13N between 71W and 77W. Elsewhere,
an increasing pressure gradient between Melissa and a building
Bermuda high to the northeast is supporting moderate to fresh
trade winds over the eastern Caribbean as observed on recent
scatterometer data, and moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee of
Cuba and the northwestern basin. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail over
the eastern Caribbean, with 3 to 5 ft seas west of 80W.
For the forecast, Melissa will move to near 14.6N 74.5W late tonight,
to near 14.9N 74.6W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50
kt, to near 15.2N 74.7W late Thu night, then begin to gradually
strengthen as it nears 15.6N 74.8W Fri afternoon and to near 16.1N
75.0W late Fri night with maximum sustained winds 60 kt. Melissa
is forecast to intensify into a hurricane near 16.3N 75.6W Sat
afternoon, and continue to strengthen as it moves to near 16.2N
76.7W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 100 kt and to
near 16.0N 78.0W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained 115 kt.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front has moved southeastward off the Georgia and NE
Florida coasts, and extends from 31N79W to near Ormond Beach,
Florida. A surface trough has been analyzed to the southeast of
the front from 31N75W to 27.5N78W. Scattered showers area along
the front. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed moderate SW
to NW winds occurring in this region near these features. Farther
east, a surface trough extends from 31N32W to 20N45W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring within 180 nm E
of the trough. Moderate NW to NE winds are noted near this
feature N of 27N. Between the cold front and this trough, a 1023
mb Bermuda high extends a ridge southward to 20N. The increasing
pressure gradient between the high and Tropical Storm Melissa is
supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas
south of 25N between 50W and the Bahamas. Otherwise, weak ridging
dominates the remainder of the waters farther east, supporting
gentle to moderate trade winds and moderate seas.
For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front off of NE Florida will
move southeastward and stall from near Bermuda to the Florida Keys
by Fri night. High pressure building in behind the front will
support strong NE to E winds and rough seas north of the boundary
Fri through Sun while it weakens. These winds will continue to
impact the western half of the area into early next week as a
tight pressure between the high pressure and Tropical Storm
Melissa in the central Caribbean remains in place. This pattern
will support fresh E to SE winds over the waters south of 22N and
west of 70W along with rough seas by Sun, including the northern
entrance to the Windward Passage.
$$
Stripling
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Wed, 22 Oct 2025 23:05:44 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 222305
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Oct 23 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Melissa is centered near 14.4N 74.3W at 2100 UTC,
or 280 nm SSW of Port Au Prince Haiti, moving WNW at 2 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed remains 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Melissa remains a
sheared tropical storm, with all significant convection occurring
on the eastern side of the circulation. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is occurring from 12N to 16N between 70W and
74.5W. Peak seas to near 20 ft are occurring near the center of
Melissa. Some gradual strengthening is anticipated to begin
tomorrow through Fri, then conditions are expected to become more
favorable for sustained strengthening, and Melissa could become a
hurricane by Sat. A continued slow forward speed and a gradual
turn to the northwest and north-northwest is expected during the
next couple of days, followed by a turn back westward by the end
of the week. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to
approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti later this
week. Swells generated by Melissa will continue to impact the
Caribbean coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during
the next couple of days. Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10
inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti,
and eastern Jamaica through Saturday, with locally higher amounts
possible. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday,
however, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces
confidence in exact totals. Significant flash flooding and
landslides are possible. Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican
Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of
rain is expected through Saturday. Flash and urban flooding will
be possible through at least Saturday.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near
27W, south of 16N, moving west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is
discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near
33W, south of 18N, moving west around 15 kt. Nearby convection is
discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 13.5N16.5W and
continues southwestward to 09.5N27W to 08.5N40W. The ITCZ continues
from 08.5N40W to 10.5N63W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 04.5N to 12N between 14W and 23W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 04N to 15.5N between 25W and 38W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front extends over the northern Gulf from near Hernando
Beach, Florida to North Padre Island, Texas. Recent satellite
scatterometer data showed moderate to locally fresh NE winds and
occurring north of the front, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Elsewhere,
a surface trough is analyzed over the southwestern Gulf, just
offshore of the coast of Mexico. Widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are near the trough over east-central Mexico. Weak
ridging over the remainder of the basin is supporting gentle to
moderate E to NE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas. Isolated clusters of
moderate convection are seen across south central portions of the
basin.
For the forecast, the cold front over the northern Gulf will move
southward across the eastern Gulf, and stall from the Florida
Keys to Louisiana by Fri morning, where it will dissipate through
Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through Thu. Winds
will increase over the eastern Gulf the end of the week into the
weekend as the pressure gradient tightens between the building
high pressure and Tropical Storm Melissa in the central Caribbean.
Little change in conditions is expected early next week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for specific information
on Tropical Storm Melissa. The broad circulation of Melissa now
covers the entire basin except for NW portions. Scattered squalls
and a few thunderstorms are occurring on the periphery of this
broad wind field, from the Gulf of Honduras to south of Jamaica,
and across the southeast Caribbean. Seas to 8 ft and higher have
moved to the south coast of Haiti and the eastern end of Jamaica,
and extend southward to near 13N between 71W and 77W. Elsewhere,
an increasing pressure gradient between Melissa and a building
Bermuda high to the northeast is supporting moderate to fresh
trade winds over the eastern Caribbean as observed on recent
scatterometer data, and moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee of
Cuba and the northwestern basin. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail over
the eastern Caribbean, with 3 to 5 ft seas west of 80W.
For the forecast, Melissa will move to near 14.6N 74.5W late tonight,
to near 14.9N 74.6W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50
kt, to near 15.2N 74.7W late Thu night, then begin to gradually
strengthen as it nears 15.6N 74.8W Fri afternoon and to near 16.1N
75.0W late Fri night with maximum sustained winds 60 kt. Melissa
is forecast to intensify into a hurricane near 16.3N 75.6W Sat
afternoon, and continue to strengthen as it moves to near 16.2N
76.7W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 100 kt and to
near 16.0N 78.0W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained 115 kt.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front has moved southeastward off the Georgia and NE
Florida coasts, and extends from 31N79W to near Ormond Beach,
Florida. A surface trough has been analyzed to the southeast of
the front from 31N75W to 27.5N78W. Scattered showers area along
the front. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed moderate SW
to NW winds occurring in this region near these features. Farther
east, a surface trough extends from 31N32W to 20N45W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring within 180 nm E
of the trough. Moderate NW to NE winds are noted near this
feature N of 27N. Between the cold front and this trough, a 1023
mb Bermuda high extends a ridge southward to 20N. The increasing
pressure gradient between the high and Tropical Storm Melissa is
supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas
south of 25N between 50W and the Bahamas. Otherwise, weak ridging
dominates the remainder of the waters farther east, supporting
gentle to moderate trade winds and moderate seas.
For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front off of NE Florida will
move southeastward and stall from near Bermuda to the Florida Keys
by Fri night. High pressure building in behind the front will
support strong NE to E winds and rough seas north of the boundary
Fri through Sun while it weakens. These winds will continue to
impact the western half of the area into early next week as a
tight pressure between the high pressure and Tropical Storm
Melissa in the central Caribbean remains in place. This pattern
will support fresh E to SE winds over the waters south of 22N and
west of 70W along with rough seas by Sun, including the northern
entrance to the Windward Passage.
$$
Stripling
Active Tropical Systems
- Thu, 23 Oct 2025 02:38:56 +0000: Tropical Storm Melissa Graphics - NHC Atlantic
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Oct 2025 02:38:13 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Oct 2025 02:38:13 GMT - Thu, 23 Oct 2025 02:36:56 +0000: Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 7 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025000 WTNT43 KNHC 230236 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025 Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations and satellite imagery indicate that Melissa remains a sheared tropical cyclone, With The low-level center of the storm situated to the west and northwest of the main areas of thunderstorms. The convection continue to be very deep with cloud tops to -80 deg C or colder. There is some evidence of a convective banding feature over the southern portion of the circulation, but the overall cloud pattern is not well organized. Upper-level outflow continues to be restricted to the west of the storm due to the west-northwesterly shear. Tail Doppler data from the NOAA aircraft show a significant eastward tilt of the vortex with height. Observations from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the central pressure is not falling at this time, and that the maximum winds remain near 45 kt. This is also supported by objective satellite-derived intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS. Center fixes from the aircraft show that Melissa is still moving very slowly, at around 270/2 kt. In the short term, the cyclone is expected to turn northwestward to northward in a weakness in the mid-level ridge. In 48 hours or so, a weak ridge is expected to build to the north of Melissa which should induce a westward turn. Around the end of the forecast period, the ridge is expected to weaken and the system is predicted to turn to the right. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies between the latest HCCA corrected consensus and the simple dynamical model consensus. This is somewhat west of the latest Google DeepMind ensemble mean forecast. There continues to be a large spread in the guidance models, indicating less than normal confidence in the track forecast, especially around day 5. Melissa is likely to continue to be influenced by significant westerly vertical wind shear during the next day or two, so only slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Later in the forecast period, the global models show a relaxation of the shear. This, along with the very high oceanic heat content over the area, could result in significant strengthening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and very close to the HCCA and FSU Superensemble guidance. Key Messages: 1. Melissa is forecast to meander over the central Caribbean Sea and could potentially become a major hurricane by late this weekend or early next week. Interests in Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and the Dominican Republic are urged to continue monitoring the latest forecasts. 2. Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged period of strong winds, possibly lasting for a day or more, is increasing for Jamaica and the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong winds could begin in these areas as early as late Thursday or Friday and continue increasing over the weekend. 3. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend, bringing a risk of significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 14.3N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 14.7N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 15.0N 75.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.3N 75.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 15.7N 75.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 16.0N 75.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 16.1N 76.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 16.0N 77.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 16.5N 78.5W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
- Thu, 23 Oct 2025 02:36:20 +0000: Tropical Storm Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2025000 FONT13 KNHC 230236 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025 0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PT GALLINAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 17(24) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 18(22) 16(38) 9(47) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) KINGSTON 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 30(40) 15(55) 5(60) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) 2(21) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 2(15) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 7(12) 3(15) 2(17) CAPE BEATA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 1(13) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH - Thu, 23 Oct 2025 02:35:51 +0000: Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 7 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2025940 WTNT23 KNHC 230235 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025 0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 74.6W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....180NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 74.6W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 74.5W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.7N 74.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.0N 75.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.3N 75.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.7N 75.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.0N 75.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.1N 76.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 16.0N 77.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 16.5N 78.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 74.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
- Thu, 23 Oct 2025 02:35:51 +0000: Tropical Storm Melissa Public Advisory Number 7 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025941 WTNT33 KNHC 230235 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025 ...MELISSA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 74.6W ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 74.6 West. Melissa is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest or north-northwest is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a westward turn by this weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to be nearer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti later this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Melissa could become a hurricane by Friday, with more substantial intensification forecast by this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti beginning on Friday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in Jamaica late on Thursday or on Friday. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday. However, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are possible. Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Saturday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Saturday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Wed, 22 Oct 2025 15:00:39 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 221500
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 22 OCTOBER 2025
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z OCTOBER 2025
TCPOD NUMBER.....25-144
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM MELISSA
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 76
A. 23/2330Z A. 24/1130Z,1730Z
B. NOAA2 0713A MELISSA B. AFXXX 0813A MELISSA
C. 23/2000Z C. 24/0930Z
D. 15.6N 74.4W D. 16.0N 74.4W
E. 23/2230Z TO 24/0230Z E. 24/1100Z TO 24/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR & FIX G. FIX
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. ANOTHER NOAA 42 P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO MELISSA
FOR 25/0000Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 24/2000Z.
3. REMARK: A SMALL UAS WILL BE RELEASED DURING THE NOAA 42 TAIL
DOPPLER RADAR MISSION TASKED FOR 23/2330Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf