2025 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models

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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2025 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 7 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Wed, 22 Oct 2025 23:05:44 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 222305
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0015 UTC Thu Oct 23 2025

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2230 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Tropical Storm Melissa is centered near 14.4N 74.3W at 2100 UTC,
    or 280 nm SSW of Port Au Prince Haiti, moving WNW at 2 kt.
    Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
    wind speed remains 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Melissa remains a
    sheared tropical storm, with all significant convection occurring
    on the eastern side of the circulation. Numerous moderate to
    strong convection is occurring from 12N to 16N between 70W and
    74.5W. Peak seas to near 20 ft are occurring near the center of
    Melissa. Some gradual strengthening is anticipated to begin
    tomorrow through Fri, then conditions are expected to become more
    favorable for sustained strengthening, and Melissa could become a
    hurricane by Sat. A continued slow forward speed and a gradual
    turn to the northwest and north-northwest is expected during the
    next couple of days, followed by a turn back westward by the end
    of the week. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to
    approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti later this
    week. Swells generated by Melissa will continue to impact the
    Caribbean coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during
    the next couple of days. Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10
    inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti,
    and eastern Jamaica through Saturday, with locally higher amounts
    possible. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday,
    however, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces
    confidence in exact totals. Significant flash flooding and
    landslides are possible. Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican
    Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of
    rain is expected through Saturday. Flash and urban flooding will
    be possible through at least Saturday.

    Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
    Hurricane Center at website -
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
    Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
    www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near
    27W, south of 16N, moving west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is
    discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

    The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near
    33W, south of 18N, moving west around 15 kt. Nearby convection is
    discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 13.5N16.5W and
    continues southwestward to 09.5N27W to 08.5N40W. The ITCZ continues
    from 08.5N40W to 10.5N63W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    from 04.5N to 12N between 14W and 23W. Scattered moderate isolated
    strong convection is noted from 04N to 15.5N between 25W and 38W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A cold front extends over the northern Gulf from near Hernando
    Beach, Florida to North Padre Island, Texas. Recent satellite
    scatterometer data showed moderate to locally fresh NE winds and
    occurring north of the front, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Elsewhere,
    a surface trough is analyzed over the southwestern Gulf, just
    offshore of the coast of Mexico. Widely scattered showers and
    thunderstorms are near the trough over east-central Mexico. Weak
    ridging over the remainder of the basin is supporting gentle to
    moderate E to NE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas. Isolated clusters of
    moderate convection are seen across south central portions of the
    basin.

    For the forecast, the cold front over the northern Gulf will move
    southward across the eastern Gulf, and stall from the Florida
    Keys to Louisiana by Fri morning, where it will dissipate through
    Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Gentle to
    moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through Thu. Winds
    will increase over the eastern Gulf the end of the week into the
    weekend as the pressure gradient tightens between the building
    high pressure and Tropical Storm Melissa in the central Caribbean.
    Little change in conditions is expected early next week.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for specific information
    on Tropical Storm Melissa. The broad circulation of Melissa now
    covers the entire basin except for NW portions. Scattered squalls
    and a few thunderstorms are occurring on the periphery of this
    broad wind field, from the Gulf of Honduras to south of Jamaica,
    and across the southeast Caribbean. Seas to 8 ft and higher have
    moved to the south coast of Haiti and the eastern end of Jamaica,
    and extend southward to near 13N between 71W and 77W. Elsewhere,
    an increasing pressure gradient between Melissa and a building
    Bermuda high to the northeast is supporting moderate to fresh
    trade winds over the eastern Caribbean as observed on recent
    scatterometer data, and moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee of
    Cuba and the northwestern basin. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail over
    the eastern Caribbean, with 3 to 5 ft seas west of 80W.

    For the forecast, Melissa will move to near 14.6N 74.5W late tonight,
    to near 14.9N 74.6W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50
    kt, to near 15.2N 74.7W late Thu night, then begin to gradually
    strengthen as it nears 15.6N 74.8W Fri afternoon and to near 16.1N
    75.0W late Fri night with maximum sustained winds 60 kt. Melissa
    is forecast to intensify into a hurricane near 16.3N 75.6W Sat
    afternoon, and continue to strengthen as it moves to near 16.2N
    76.7W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 100 kt and to
    near 16.0N 78.0W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained 115 kt.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front has moved southeastward off the Georgia and NE
    Florida coasts, and extends from 31N79W to near Ormond Beach,
    Florida. A surface trough has been analyzed to the southeast of
    the front from 31N75W to 27.5N78W. Scattered showers area along
    the front. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed moderate SW
    to NW winds occurring in this region near these features. Farther
    east, a surface trough extends from 31N32W to 20N45W. Scattered
    showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring within 180 nm E
    of the trough. Moderate NW to NE winds are noted near this
    feature N of 27N. Between the cold front and this trough, a 1023
    mb Bermuda high extends a ridge southward to 20N. The increasing
    pressure gradient between the high and Tropical Storm Melissa is
    supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas
    south of 25N between 50W and the Bahamas. Otherwise, weak ridging
    dominates the remainder of the waters farther east, supporting
    gentle to moderate trade winds and moderate seas.

    For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front off of NE Florida will
    move southeastward and stall from near Bermuda to the Florida Keys
    by Fri night. High pressure building in behind the front will
    support strong NE to E winds and rough seas north of the boundary
    Fri through Sun while it weakens. These winds will continue to
    impact the western half of the area into early next week as a
    tight pressure between the high pressure and Tropical Storm
    Melissa in the central Caribbean remains in place. This pattern
    will support fresh E to SE winds over the waters south of 22N and
    west of 70W along with rough seas by Sun, including the northern
    entrance to the Windward Passage.

    $$
    Stripling
Tropical Weather Discussion
  • Wed, 22 Oct 2025 23:05:44 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 222305
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0015 UTC Thu Oct 23 2025

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2230 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Tropical Storm Melissa is centered near 14.4N 74.3W at 2100 UTC,
    or 280 nm SSW of Port Au Prince Haiti, moving WNW at 2 kt.
    Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
    wind speed remains 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Melissa remains a
    sheared tropical storm, with all significant convection occurring
    on the eastern side of the circulation. Numerous moderate to
    strong convection is occurring from 12N to 16N between 70W and
    74.5W. Peak seas to near 20 ft are occurring near the center of
    Melissa. Some gradual strengthening is anticipated to begin
    tomorrow through Fri, then conditions are expected to become more
    favorable for sustained strengthening, and Melissa could become a
    hurricane by Sat. A continued slow forward speed and a gradual
    turn to the northwest and north-northwest is expected during the
    next couple of days, followed by a turn back westward by the end
    of the week. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to
    approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti later this
    week. Swells generated by Melissa will continue to impact the
    Caribbean coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during
    the next couple of days. Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10
    inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti,
    and eastern Jamaica through Saturday, with locally higher amounts
    possible. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday,
    however, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces
    confidence in exact totals. Significant flash flooding and
    landslides are possible. Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican
    Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of
    rain is expected through Saturday. Flash and urban flooding will
    be possible through at least Saturday.

    Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
    Hurricane Center at website -
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
    Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
    www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near
    27W, south of 16N, moving west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is
    discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

    The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near
    33W, south of 18N, moving west around 15 kt. Nearby convection is
    discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 13.5N16.5W and
    continues southwestward to 09.5N27W to 08.5N40W. The ITCZ continues
    from 08.5N40W to 10.5N63W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    from 04.5N to 12N between 14W and 23W. Scattered moderate isolated
    strong convection is noted from 04N to 15.5N between 25W and 38W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A cold front extends over the northern Gulf from near Hernando
    Beach, Florida to North Padre Island, Texas. Recent satellite
    scatterometer data showed moderate to locally fresh NE winds and
    occurring north of the front, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Elsewhere,
    a surface trough is analyzed over the southwestern Gulf, just
    offshore of the coast of Mexico. Widely scattered showers and
    thunderstorms are near the trough over east-central Mexico. Weak
    ridging over the remainder of the basin is supporting gentle to
    moderate E to NE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas. Isolated clusters of
    moderate convection are seen across south central portions of the
    basin.

    For the forecast, the cold front over the northern Gulf will move
    southward across the eastern Gulf, and stall from the Florida
    Keys to Louisiana by Fri morning, where it will dissipate through
    Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Gentle to
    moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through Thu. Winds
    will increase over the eastern Gulf the end of the week into the
    weekend as the pressure gradient tightens between the building
    high pressure and Tropical Storm Melissa in the central Caribbean.
    Little change in conditions is expected early next week.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for specific information
    on Tropical Storm Melissa. The broad circulation of Melissa now
    covers the entire basin except for NW portions. Scattered squalls
    and a few thunderstorms are occurring on the periphery of this
    broad wind field, from the Gulf of Honduras to south of Jamaica,
    and across the southeast Caribbean. Seas to 8 ft and higher have
    moved to the south coast of Haiti and the eastern end of Jamaica,
    and extend southward to near 13N between 71W and 77W. Elsewhere,
    an increasing pressure gradient between Melissa and a building
    Bermuda high to the northeast is supporting moderate to fresh
    trade winds over the eastern Caribbean as observed on recent
    scatterometer data, and moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee of
    Cuba and the northwestern basin. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail over
    the eastern Caribbean, with 3 to 5 ft seas west of 80W.

    For the forecast, Melissa will move to near 14.6N 74.5W late tonight,
    to near 14.9N 74.6W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50
    kt, to near 15.2N 74.7W late Thu night, then begin to gradually
    strengthen as it nears 15.6N 74.8W Fri afternoon and to near 16.1N
    75.0W late Fri night with maximum sustained winds 60 kt. Melissa
    is forecast to intensify into a hurricane near 16.3N 75.6W Sat
    afternoon, and continue to strengthen as it moves to near 16.2N
    76.7W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 100 kt and to
    near 16.0N 78.0W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained 115 kt.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front has moved southeastward off the Georgia and NE
    Florida coasts, and extends from 31N79W to near Ormond Beach,
    Florida. A surface trough has been analyzed to the southeast of
    the front from 31N75W to 27.5N78W. Scattered showers area along
    the front. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed moderate SW
    to NW winds occurring in this region near these features. Farther
    east, a surface trough extends from 31N32W to 20N45W. Scattered
    showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring within 180 nm E
    of the trough. Moderate NW to NE winds are noted near this
    feature N of 27N. Between the cold front and this trough, a 1023
    mb Bermuda high extends a ridge southward to 20N. The increasing
    pressure gradient between the high and Tropical Storm Melissa is
    supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas
    south of 25N between 50W and the Bahamas. Otherwise, weak ridging
    dominates the remainder of the waters farther east, supporting
    gentle to moderate trade winds and moderate seas.

    For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front off of NE Florida will
    move southeastward and stall from near Bermuda to the Florida Keys
    by Fri night. High pressure building in behind the front will
    support strong NE to E winds and rough seas north of the boundary
    Fri through Sun while it weakens. These winds will continue to
    impact the western half of the area into early next week as a
    tight pressure between the high pressure and Tropical Storm
    Melissa in the central Caribbean remains in place. This pattern
    will support fresh E to SE winds over the waters south of 22N and
    west of 70W along with rough seas by Sun, including the northern
    entrance to the Windward Passage.

    $$
    Stripling
Active Tropical Systems
  • Thu, 23 Oct 2025 02:38:56 +0000: Tropical Storm Melissa Graphics - NHC Atlantic
    Tropical Storm Melissa 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Oct 2025 02:38:13 GMT

    Tropical Storm Melissa 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Oct 2025 02:38:13 GMT
  • Thu, 23 Oct 2025 02:36:56 +0000: Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 7 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025
    000
    WTNT43 KNHC 230236
    TCDAT3
     
    Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number   7
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
    1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025
    
    Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations and 
    satellite imagery indicate that Melissa remains a sheared tropical 
    cyclone, With The low-level center of the storm situated to the 
    west and northwest of the main areas of thunderstorms.  The 
    convection continue to be very deep with cloud tops to -80 deg C or 
    colder.  There is some evidence of a convective banding feature over 
    the southern portion of the circulation, but the overall cloud 
    pattern is not well organized.  Upper-level outflow continues to be 
    restricted to the west of the storm due to the west-northwesterly 
    shear.  Tail Doppler data from the NOAA aircraft show a 
    significant eastward tilt of the vortex with height.  Observations 
    from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the central pressure is not 
    falling at this time, and that the maximum winds remain near 45 kt.  
    This is also supported by objective satellite-derived intensity 
    estimates from UW-CIMSS.
    
    Center fixes from the aircraft show that Melissa is still moving 
    very slowly, at around 270/2 kt.  In the short term, the cyclone is 
    expected to turn northwestward to northward in a weakness in the 
    mid-level ridge.  In 48 hours or so, a weak ridge is expected to 
    build to the north of Melissa which should induce a westward turn.  
    Around the end of the forecast period, the ridge is expected to  
    weaken and the system is predicted to turn to the right.  The 
    official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and 
    lies between the latest HCCA corrected consensus and the simple 
    dynamical model consensus.   This is somewhat west of the latest 
    Google DeepMind ensemble mean forecast.  There continues to be a 
    large spread in the guidance models, indicating less than normal 
    confidence in the track forecast, especially around day 5.
    
    Melissa is likely to continue to be influenced by significant 
    westerly vertical wind shear during the next day or two, so only 
    slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.  Later in 
    the forecast period, the global models show a relaxation of the 
    shear.  This, along with the very high oceanic heat content over 
    the area, could result in significant strengthening.  The official 
    intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and very close 
    to the HCCA and FSU Superensemble guidance.
    
     
    Key Messages:
     
    1. Melissa is forecast to meander over the central Caribbean Sea and
    could potentially become a major hurricane by late this weekend or 
    early next week.  Interests in Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and the 
    Dominican Republic are urged to continue monitoring the latest 
    forecasts.
     
    2. Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged period of
    strong winds, possibly lasting for a day or more, is increasing for
    Jamaica and the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti.  Preparations to protect
    life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong
    winds could begin in these areas as early as late Thursday or
    Friday and continue increasing over the weekend.
     
    3. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
    the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend,
    bringing a risk of significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
    numerous landslides.
     
     
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
     
    INIT  23/0300Z 14.3N  74.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
     12H  23/1200Z 14.7N  74.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
     24H  24/0000Z 15.0N  75.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
     36H  24/1200Z 15.3N  75.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
     48H  25/0000Z 15.7N  75.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
     60H  25/1200Z 16.0N  75.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
     72H  26/0000Z 16.1N  76.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
     96H  27/0000Z 16.0N  77.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
    120H  28/0000Z 16.5N  78.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
     
    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
  • Thu, 23 Oct 2025 02:36:20 +0000: Tropical Storm Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2025
    000
    FONT13 KNHC 230236
    PWSAT3
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7          
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132025               
    0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2025                                            
                                                                        
    AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR      
    LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
    WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
     
    GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
     
    PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
     
    SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)
    SAN ANDRES     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
    SAN ANDRES     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
     
    PT GALLINAS    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   2( 9)
     
    CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
    CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
    CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
     
    HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
     
    ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
    ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
    ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
     
    CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
    CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
    CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
     
    CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
     
    GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)
     
    GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  17(24)
    GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
    GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
     
    MONTEGO BAY    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)  18(22)  16(38)   9(47)
    MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)
    MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
     
    KINGSTON       34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   6(10)  30(40)  15(55)   5(60)
    KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   9(19)   2(21)
    KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
     
    LES CAYES      34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   4(13)   2(15)
     
    PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   7(12)   3(15)   2(17)
     
    CAPE BEATA     34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   5(10)   2(12)   1(13)
     
    PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER PASCH
  • Thu, 23 Oct 2025 02:35:51 +0000: Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 7 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2025
    940 
    WTNT23 KNHC 230235
    TCMAT3
     
    TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132025
    0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2025
     
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  74.6W AT 23/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   2 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
    34 KT.......100NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
    4 M SEAS....180NE  60SE   0SW 120NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  74.6W AT 23/0300Z
    AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  74.5W
     
    FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.7N  74.9W
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT...100NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.0N  75.1W
    MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
    34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.3N  75.2W
    MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
    50 KT... 35NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
    34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.7N  75.3W
    MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
    50 KT... 35NE  20SE   0SW  25NW.
    34 KT...110NE 100SE  30SW  70NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.0N  75.6W
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
    50 KT... 35NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
    34 KT...120NE 100SE  40SW  70NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.1N  76.2W
    MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
    50 KT... 45NE  30SE  25SW  40NW.
    34 KT...150NE 110SE  60SW  80NW.
     
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 16.0N  77.5W
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
    50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
    34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 16.5N  78.5W
    MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
    50 KT...100NE  75SE  70SW  80NW.
    34 KT...190NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N  74.6W
     
    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0600Z
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH
  • Thu, 23 Oct 2025 02:35:51 +0000: Tropical Storm Melissa Public Advisory Number 7 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025
    941 
    WTNT33 KNHC 230235
    TCPAT3
     
    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number   7
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
    1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025
     
    ...MELISSA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
    FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE WEEKEND...
     
     
    SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...14.3N 74.6W
    ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
    ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
     
     
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
     
    None.
     
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
     
    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
    * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
    Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
     
    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Jamaica
     
    A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
    within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
    before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
    winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
    dangerous.
     
    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
     
    Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
    should monitor the progress of Melissa.
     
    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.
     
     
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
    located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 74.6 West. Melissa is
    moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h).  A slow forward speed 
    and a gradual turn to the northwest or north-northwest is forecast 
    during the next couple of days, followed by a westward turn by this 
    weekend.  On the forecast track,  Melissa is expected to be nearer 
    to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti later this week.
     
    Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and 
    Melissa could become a hurricane by Friday, with more substantial 
    intensification forecast by this weekend.
     
    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
    from the center.
     
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
     
     
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
     
    WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
    Haiti beginning on Friday.  Tropical storm conditions could begin in
    Jamaica late on Thursday or on Friday.
     
    RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to the
    southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
    through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible.  Additional
    heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday.  However, uncertainty
    in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact
    totals.  Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
    landslides are possible.
     
    Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and
    western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Saturday.
    Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Saturday.
     
    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
    Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
    Rainfall Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
     
    SURF:  Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to
    Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of
    days.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
     
    A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
    at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents
     
     
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
    Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
     
    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
  • Wed, 22 Oct 2025 15:00:39 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
    000
    NOUS42 KNHC 221500
    REPRPD
    WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
    CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
    1100 AM EDT WED 22 OCTOBER 2025
    SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
    VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z OCTOBER 2025
    TCPOD NUMBER.....25-144

    I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM MELISSA
    FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 76
    A. 23/2330Z A. 24/1130Z,1730Z
    B. NOAA2 0713A MELISSA B. AFXXX 0813A MELISSA
    C. 23/2000Z C. 24/0930Z
    D. 15.6N 74.4W D. 16.0N 74.4W
    E. 23/2230Z TO 24/0230Z E. 24/1100Z TO 24/1730Z
    F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
    G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR & FIX G. FIX
    H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
    A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
    B. ANOTHER NOAA 42 P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO MELISSA
    FOR 25/0000Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 24/2000Z.
    3. REMARK: A SMALL UAS WILL BE RELEASED DURING THE NOAA 42 TAIL
    DOPPLER RADAR MISSION TASKED FOR 23/2330Z.

    II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    $$
    WJM

    NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
  • Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf
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