2026 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

000
WTNT44 KNHC 070857
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092026
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
 
Satellite imagery depicts a bursting pattern with the tropical 
cyclone this morning, with cloud top temperatures below -85 C in the 
deep convection close to the estimated center. Earlier, an 0307 UTC 
ASCAT-C pass suggested the low-level circulation was still rather 
broad, with a peak wind retrieval of only 31 kt. However, the 
bursting convection already appears to be tightening up the 
circulation somewhat, with a nearby surface observation from a buoy 
north of the center recently reporting a sustained 10 m adjusted 
wind of 35 kt. This information is enough to upgrade the depression 
to Tropical Storm Isaias for this advisory. This initial intensity 
will be 35 kt, which also agrees with the 06 UTC Dvorak fix of 
T2.5/35 kt. Both Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter 
reconnaissance missions are scheduled to sample the tropical storm 
later today. 
 
Isaias is estimated to be moving east-northeastward this morning at 
075/7 kt. This general motion should continue today as the storm's 
steering is influenced by a zonally oriented mid-level trough 
currently draped along the northern Gulf coast. Over time, this 
trough is expected to be reinforced by another short-wave that is 
moving across the Rocky Mountains, with the trough ultimately 
sharpening up northwest of Isaias over Texas. At the same time, a 
subtropical ridge centered south of Bermuda is expected to shift 
westward, helping to enhance the deep-layer southerly flow over the 
eastern Gulf. Thus, Isaias is expected to turn northeastward and 
then northward on Thursday and Friday, making its approach to the 
northern Gulf coast in 60-72 h. As mentioned in the previous 
discussion, there remains quite a bit of along and across-track 
spread in the track guidance, with the AI-model guidance remaining 
on the east side, and physics-based models on the west side of the 
guidance envelope. The NHC track forecast continues to favor more of 
the eastward solutions, but not quite as far east as the latest HFIP 
Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) or Google DeepMind ensemble mean 
(GDMI). This latest track is a eastward shift compared to the 
previous forecast, but given large amount of across- and along-track 
spread users should continue to monitor forecast updates given the 
below-average track confidence.

The short-term environment near Isaias is rather favorable, with 
very warm 30-31 C sea-surface temperatures, plenty of deep-layer 
moisture, with light to moderate shear diagnosed between 10-15 kt by 
SHIPS guidance. While it is difficult to get an exact gauge on the 
tropical storm's core structure since there have not been any 
recent microwave images, it is worth noting both the 00 UTC HAFS-A/B 
runs appeared to initialize with a broad structure similar to what 
was noted in the earlier ASCAT pass. Despite their initial broad 
structure, these hurricane-regional models show Isaias developing an 
inner-core rather quickly later today. There was a notable increase 
in the intensity aid guidance this forecast cycle, and the NHC 
intensity forecast is being raised accordingly, now showing Isaias 
reaching a peak intensity of 95 kt in 48 h while it is over the 
central Gulf. Vertical wind shear then increases quite dramatically 
in the final 24 hours before the cyclone reaches the northern Gulf 
coast, though it is looking more likely that Isaias will be a 
significant hurricane when it reaches the coast. Near landfall, 
Isaias will also be interacting with the short-wave trough, likely 
leading to an expanding wind field. Additional convective and 
motion asymmetries will likely cause rain and wind impacts to 
extend far from the center on the eastern side of the storm.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. There is an increasing risk of dangerous wind and storm surge 
impacts along portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents from 
Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should closely monitor the latest 
forecast updates and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. 
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for a 
portion of the northern Gulf coast later today. 
 
2. Tropical Storm Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the 
central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast Friday into the 
weekend. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river 
flooding, will be possible.
 
3. Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico: Tropical Storm Isaias is expected to
strengthen and could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to
the western portion of the Yucatan Peninsula over the next day or 
two. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0900Z 22.0N  94.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 22.2N  92.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 22.7N  91.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 23.9N  89.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 25.5N  88.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  09/1800Z 27.7N  87.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 30.8N  87.7W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 96H  11/0600Z 38.2N  87.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

559 
FONT14 KNHC 070852
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092026               
0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  28(28)   1(29)   X(29)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFAM 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  27(27)   1(28)   X(28)
GFAM 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
GFAM 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  42(42)   3(45)   X(45)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   1(16)   X(16)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  43(43)   4(47)   X(47)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   3(21)   X(21)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ALBANY GA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   X(11)
 
DOTHAN AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   4(19)   X(19)
DOTHAN AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  23(28)   X(28)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  17(34)   X(34)
MONTGOMERY AL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   X(10)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  47(47)   7(54)   X(54)
WHITING FLD FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)   4(27)   X(27)
WHITING FLD FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  50(50)   6(56)   X(56)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)   4(30)   X(30)
PENSACOLA FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
GFAM 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  73(74)   1(75)   X(75)
GFAM 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  49(49)   1(50)   X(50)
GFAM 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  30(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  40(40)   7(47)   X(47)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   5(22)   X(22)
MOBILE AL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  28(28)   3(31)   X(31)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   2(14)   X(14)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   2(21)   X(21)
STENNIS MS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
STENNIS MS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   1(21)   X(21)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFAM 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  45(50)   X(50)   X(50)
GFAM 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  27(28)   X(28)   X(28)
GFAM 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   X(11)
JACKSON MS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
HOUMA LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
HOUMA LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFAM 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN