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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Fri, 17 Jul 2026 09:48:20 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
895
AXNT20 KNHC 170948
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jul 17 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between western
Atlantic high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low
will support fresh to strong NE-E winds in the south-central
Caribbean during the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-
force across the waters N of Colombia each night through Sat
night. Rough to very rough seas 12 to 14 ft will develop during
the times of peak winds.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 22W, south of
17N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Overnight satellite imagery and
scatterometer data suggest a 1011 mb surface low is located
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands near 13N22W. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 10.5N to 14.5N between 20W and
24W. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur
during the next day or so while it moves west- northwestward at 10
to 15 mph. By this weekend, the system is forecast to move into a
hostile environment, and further development is not expected. The
disturbance has a low chance of development over the next 7 days.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection
is noted along the ITCZ ahead of this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 21N17W and continues southwestward to a 1011 mb
low pres near 13N22W to 09N39W. The ITCZ extends from 09N41W to
05.5N53W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 120 nm
on south of the monsoon trough and north of ITCZ to 10.5N between
41W and 59W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
1022 mb high pressure is centered southeast and offshore of the
mouth of the Mississippi River, and is forcing fresh to locally
strong easterly winds south of 23N and between 84W and 95W, as
shown by recent satellite scatterometer data. Seas area 3 to 5 ft
across this area. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are present in the
remainder of the western and SE Gulf waters, where seas are 2-4
ft. North of the high, gentle to moderate W to NW winds and 2 to 3
ft seas prevail. Elsewhere, slight to gentle winds and slight
seas prevail. Upper level low pressure across the southeast Gulf
is supporting a cluster of moderate to strong convection along the
W coast of Florida from Cape Coral to New Port Richey. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are also across the Mexican
coastal waters from Cabo Rojo to offshore of Veracruz.
For the forecast, high pressure will meander across the northern
Gulf through early Mon. Fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore
the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and night. Gentle to moderate
winds, and slight to moderate seas, will prevail elsewhere. Upper
level low pressure across the eastern Gulf will support active
thunderstorms across portions of the NE Gulf through Sun.
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form this
weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual
development of this system is possible while it meanders over the
northeastern Gulf or moves slowly northeastward toward the coast
of the southeastern United States early next week. The chance of
formation through the next 7 days is low.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean near
the coast of Colombia. Seas are estimated at 10 to 14 ft in the
area presently. Please refer to the Special Features section for
more details.
The Atlantic subtropical ridge persists along 26N-27N to the
north of the Caribbean Sea, forcing strong to gale easterly trade
winds across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds
occurring off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough to very
rough seas are found in these waters. Fresh to strong NE winds
and moderate seas are noted in the Windward Passage and Gulf of
Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate
seas are present in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. A few
clusters of moderate convection across the waters east of the
Yucatan Peninsula and across the Channel.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure ridge, and the Colombian low, will support NE winds
pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia each night
through Sat night. Otherwise, strong to near-gale trade winds and
rough seas will prevail across the much of the central Caribbean
into early Mon before contracting to south of 15N Mon and Tue.
East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening in the
Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An extensive subtropical ridge persists across the tropical
Atlantic north of 15N, anchored by 1027 mb centered near 28N48W
and extends westward to southeast Florida. Saharan dust and mid-
latitude dry air continue to dominate the basin, suppressing the
development of showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to locally strong
easterly trade winds and moderate seas are occurring off the SE
Bahamas, Haiti and eastern Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas are prevalent south of 24N and
west of 30W to the Lesser Antilles. Widely scattered clusters of
moderate convection are noted from offshore of Cape Canaveral
northeastward toward Bermuda.
Meanwhile, in the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong
winds and seas of 5-7 ft are noted north of the monsoon trough
and east of 32W. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and seas of 5-8
ft are evident south of the monsoon trough and east of 26W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical
ridge will drift slightly northward through Sun night, then
weaken early next week as a broad surface trough develops between
50W and 60W and shifts westward through mid week. This weather
pattern will support moderate to fresh trades south of 24N Sun
night, and gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are
expected each evening and night across the waters N of Hispaniola
and in the Windward Passage.
$$
Stripling
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Fri, 17 Jul 2026 09:48:20 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
895
AXNT20 KNHC 170948
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jul 17 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between western
Atlantic high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low
will support fresh to strong NE-E winds in the south-central
Caribbean during the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-
force across the waters N of Colombia each night through Sat
night. Rough to very rough seas 12 to 14 ft will develop during
the times of peak winds.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 22W, south of
17N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Overnight satellite imagery and
scatterometer data suggest a 1011 mb surface low is located
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands near 13N22W. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 10.5N to 14.5N between 20W and
24W. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur
during the next day or so while it moves west- northwestward at 10
to 15 mph. By this weekend, the system is forecast to move into a
hostile environment, and further development is not expected. The
disturbance has a low chance of development over the next 7 days.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection
is noted along the ITCZ ahead of this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 21N17W and continues southwestward to a 1011 mb
low pres near 13N22W to 09N39W. The ITCZ extends from 09N41W to
05.5N53W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 120 nm
on south of the monsoon trough and north of ITCZ to 10.5N between
41W and 59W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
1022 mb high pressure is centered southeast and offshore of the
mouth of the Mississippi River, and is forcing fresh to locally
strong easterly winds south of 23N and between 84W and 95W, as
shown by recent satellite scatterometer data. Seas area 3 to 5 ft
across this area. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are present in the
remainder of the western and SE Gulf waters, where seas are 2-4
ft. North of the high, gentle to moderate W to NW winds and 2 to 3
ft seas prevail. Elsewhere, slight to gentle winds and slight
seas prevail. Upper level low pressure across the southeast Gulf
is supporting a cluster of moderate to strong convection along the
W coast of Florida from Cape Coral to New Port Richey. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are also across the Mexican
coastal waters from Cabo Rojo to offshore of Veracruz.
For the forecast, high pressure will meander across the northern
Gulf through early Mon. Fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore
the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and night. Gentle to moderate
winds, and slight to moderate seas, will prevail elsewhere. Upper
level low pressure across the eastern Gulf will support active
thunderstorms across portions of the NE Gulf through Sun.
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form this
weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual
development of this system is possible while it meanders over the
northeastern Gulf or moves slowly northeastward toward the coast
of the southeastern United States early next week. The chance of
formation through the next 7 days is low.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean near
the coast of Colombia. Seas are estimated at 10 to 14 ft in the
area presently. Please refer to the Special Features section for
more details.
The Atlantic subtropical ridge persists along 26N-27N to the
north of the Caribbean Sea, forcing strong to gale easterly trade
winds across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds
occurring off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough to very
rough seas are found in these waters. Fresh to strong NE winds
and moderate seas are noted in the Windward Passage and Gulf of
Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate
seas are present in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. A few
clusters of moderate convection across the waters east of the
Yucatan Peninsula and across the Channel.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure ridge, and the Colombian low, will support NE winds
pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia each night
through Sat night. Otherwise, strong to near-gale trade winds and
rough seas will prevail across the much of the central Caribbean
into early Mon before contracting to south of 15N Mon and Tue.
East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening in the
Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An extensive subtropical ridge persists across the tropical
Atlantic north of 15N, anchored by 1027 mb centered near 28N48W
and extends westward to southeast Florida. Saharan dust and mid-
latitude dry air continue to dominate the basin, suppressing the
development of showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to locally strong
easterly trade winds and moderate seas are occurring off the SE
Bahamas, Haiti and eastern Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas are prevalent south of 24N and
west of 30W to the Lesser Antilles. Widely scattered clusters of
moderate convection are noted from offshore of Cape Canaveral
northeastward toward Bermuda.
Meanwhile, in the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong
winds and seas of 5-7 ft are noted north of the monsoon trough
and east of 32W. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and seas of 5-8
ft are evident south of the monsoon trough and east of 26W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical
ridge will drift slightly northward through Sun night, then
weaken early next week as a broad surface trough develops between
50W and 60W and shifts westward through mid week. This weather
pattern will support moderate to fresh trades south of 24N Sun
night, and gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are
expected each evening and night across the waters N of Hispaniola
and in the Windward Passage.
$$
Stripling
Active Tropical Systems
- Sat, 18 Jul 2026 23:41:22 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 17 Jul 2026 13:10:14 GMT - Fri, 17 Jul 2026 11:41:22 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
510
ABNT20 KNHC 171141
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave is
located about 175 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. The
low continues to produce a limited and disorganized area of showers
and thunderstorms while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
Significant development of this system is not expected before
environmental conditions become even less favorable for development
over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Northeastern Gulf of America and Offshore of the Southeastern U.S.:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend over the
northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual development of this
system is possible while it meanders over the northeastern Gulf,
northern Florida, or the extreme western Atlantic near northeastern
Florida early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:50:07 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 161250
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT THU 16 JULY 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z JULY 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-046
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf