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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Wed, 30 Sep 2026 10:18:07 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 301017
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Sep 30 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1005 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 83W, south of
21N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed within 120 nm of the wave axis.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The Gambia
near 13.5N17W and continues westward to 15N28W to 11N38W. The
ITCZ extends from 11N38W to 06N48W to 06N58W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 19N and between
19W and 46W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A few showers and thunderstorms are occurring off Veracruz and the
Florida Straits. High pressure over the eastern United States
supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate
seas over the western Gulf waters, while moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over
the eastern United States and lower pressures in Texas and Mexico
support moderate to fresh easterly winds over the western Gulf
waters. These winds will expand eastward across the basin by
tonight as the pressure gradient tightens. The gradient will
weaken from west to east by the end of the week into the weekend
as a frontal boundary approaches the western Gulf waters, possibly
moving into the basin by the end of the weekend with weakening
winds and subsiding seas ahead of it. Increasing winds and
building seas are possible behind the very slow moving front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Aside from the convection already described in the Tropical Waves
section above, strong storms are noted off Panama and NW Colombia,
while only passing weak showers are seen in the central and
eastern Caribbean. High pressure north of the area sustains
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across much of the basin,
increasing to strong speeds off northern Colombia and in the Gulfs
of Honduras and Venezuela. Seas of 4-8 ft are evident across the
Caribbean, except for slight seas in the lee of Cuba and Windward
Passage.
For the forecast, the tropical wave and divergent flow aloft will
support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W of 75W
over the next few days. High pressure north of the area will
support pulsing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the
central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through the
remainder of the week. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail in
the rest of the basin. Later, a frontal boundary will slide into
the Gulf of America and western Atlantic this weekend, resulting
in a weakening pressure gradient across the Caribbean as the ridge
retreats. Moderate to locally fresh winds will then dominate the
basin into early next week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A divergence flow aloft and plenty of tropical moisture continue
to sustain strong showers and thunderstorms across the central
Bahamas and central Cuba. Farther east, showers dot the waters
between Bermuda and the Leeward Islands. High pressure dominates
the SW North Atlantic, supporting moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft south of 25N and west of 55W.
Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are noted
elsewhere west of 55W.
The remnants of Fay continue moving westward near 23N51W and
support a few showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm of
the center. Fresh to strong easterly winds are occurring in the
northern semicircle of the low. Seas of 6-8 ft are found from 20N
to 28N and between 44W and 55W. Meanwhile, moderate westerly winds
and seas of 6-8 ft are noted north of 29N and between 35W and 50W
associated with Tropical Storm Hanna currently north of our
waters. Elsewhere in the central and eastern Atlantic, weak high
pressure is prevalent sustaining moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist across
the region over the remainder of the week and into the weekend
supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds south of 25N.
Moderate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere. Meanwhile, the
remnants of Post- Tropical Cyclone Fay currently east of the
offshore waters may move west of 55W by tonight. This system will
continue to weaken and may dissipate late this week. Looking
ahead, a frontal boundary may reach the waters off NE Florida
early next week, resulting in an increase in winds and seas behind
the boundary.
$$
Delgado
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Wed, 30 Sep 2026 10:18:07 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 301017
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Sep 30 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1005 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 83W, south of
21N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed within 120 nm of the wave axis.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The Gambia
near 13.5N17W and continues westward to 15N28W to 11N38W. The
ITCZ extends from 11N38W to 06N48W to 06N58W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 19N and between
19W and 46W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A few showers and thunderstorms are occurring off Veracruz and the
Florida Straits. High pressure over the eastern United States
supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate
seas over the western Gulf waters, while moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over
the eastern United States and lower pressures in Texas and Mexico
support moderate to fresh easterly winds over the western Gulf
waters. These winds will expand eastward across the basin by
tonight as the pressure gradient tightens. The gradient will
weaken from west to east by the end of the week into the weekend
as a frontal boundary approaches the western Gulf waters, possibly
moving into the basin by the end of the weekend with weakening
winds and subsiding seas ahead of it. Increasing winds and
building seas are possible behind the very slow moving front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Aside from the convection already described in the Tropical Waves
section above, strong storms are noted off Panama and NW Colombia,
while only passing weak showers are seen in the central and
eastern Caribbean. High pressure north of the area sustains
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across much of the basin,
increasing to strong speeds off northern Colombia and in the Gulfs
of Honduras and Venezuela. Seas of 4-8 ft are evident across the
Caribbean, except for slight seas in the lee of Cuba and Windward
Passage.
For the forecast, the tropical wave and divergent flow aloft will
support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W of 75W
over the next few days. High pressure north of the area will
support pulsing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the
central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through the
remainder of the week. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail in
the rest of the basin. Later, a frontal boundary will slide into
the Gulf of America and western Atlantic this weekend, resulting
in a weakening pressure gradient across the Caribbean as the ridge
retreats. Moderate to locally fresh winds will then dominate the
basin into early next week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A divergence flow aloft and plenty of tropical moisture continue
to sustain strong showers and thunderstorms across the central
Bahamas and central Cuba. Farther east, showers dot the waters
between Bermuda and the Leeward Islands. High pressure dominates
the SW North Atlantic, supporting moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft south of 25N and west of 55W.
Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are noted
elsewhere west of 55W.
The remnants of Fay continue moving westward near 23N51W and
support a few showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm of
the center. Fresh to strong easterly winds are occurring in the
northern semicircle of the low. Seas of 6-8 ft are found from 20N
to 28N and between 44W and 55W. Meanwhile, moderate westerly winds
and seas of 6-8 ft are noted north of 29N and between 35W and 50W
associated with Tropical Storm Hanna currently north of our
waters. Elsewhere in the central and eastern Atlantic, weak high
pressure is prevalent sustaining moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist across
the region over the remainder of the week and into the weekend
supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds south of 25N.
Moderate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere. Meanwhile, the
remnants of Post- Tropical Cyclone Fay currently east of the
offshore waters may move west of 55W by tonight. This system will
continue to weaken and may dissipate late this week. Looking
ahead, a frontal boundary may reach the waters off NE Florida
early next week, resulting in an increase in winds and seas behind
the boundary.
$$
Delgado
Active Tropical Systems
- Wed, 30 Sep 2026 11:40:27 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 301140
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Hanna, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Adams - Wed, 30 Sep 2026 09:23:07 +0000: Tropical Storm Hanna Graphics - NHC Atlantic
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2026 09:23:07 GMT - Wed, 30 Sep 2026 08:43:22 +0000: Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Discussion Number 8 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 900 AM GMT Wed Sep 30 2026000 WTNT43 KNHC 300843 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082026 900 AM GMT Wed Sep 30 2026 This morning's conventional satellite presentation consists of a poorly organized, severely sheared tropical cyclone. Although the associated deep convection is more than 170 mi east of the surface center, a 0318 UTC OSCAT-3 scatterometer pass indicated that the cyclone is still producing a small area of tropical-storm-force winds. Based on this satellite-derived wind data, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Hanna should gradually weaken today due to increasing deep-layer northwesterly shear, and continued dry air entrainment. The GFS/ECMWF simulated satellite/IR imagery prediction shows Hanna quickly losing organized deep convection and becoming a post-tropical cyclone by tonight and opening into a trough of low pressure over the weekend. The global models and the statistical Decay-SHIPS intensity guidance are also indicating that the remnants of Hanna could merge with a baroclinic system on Friday. No significant changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast. Hanna's initial motion is estimated to be east-southeastward, or 120/4 kt. This general motion should continue this morning while the cyclone remains in the low- to mid-level mid-latitude westerly steering flow provided by a longwave trough moving over the northeastern Atlantic. By this evening, Hanna should turn east-northeastward while the cyclone degenerates into a swirl of low clouds and is steered by the low-level flow. The official forecast is adjusted to the right of the previous advisory and is nudged toward the HFIP HCCA guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 33.5N 43.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 33.9N 43.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/0600Z 34.4N 41.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1800Z 35.2N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0600Z 35.4N 36.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/1800Z 35.6N 34.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/0600Z 35.3N 32.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
- Wed, 30 Sep 2026 08:42:54 +0000: Tropical Storm Hanna Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2026000 FONT13 KNHC 300842 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082026 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS - Wed, 30 Sep 2026 08:42:54 +0000: Tropical Storm Hanna Public Advisory Number 8 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 900 AM GMT Wed Sep 30 2026000 WTNT33 KNHC 300842 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hanna Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082026 900 AM GMT Wed Sep 30 2026 ...HANNA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.5N 43.9W ABOUT 1210 MI...1950 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 43.9 West. Hanna is moving toward the east-southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the east-northeast is expected later today with an increase in forward speed on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected today and Hanna should become a post-tropical remnant low by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Tue, 29 Sep 2026 14:18:09 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 291418
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1020 AM EDT TUE 29 SEPTEMBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 01/1100Z OCTOBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-121
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: NOAA 42 WILL CONDUCT 8-HOUR P-3 RESEARCH MISSION INTO
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WEDNESDAY, DEPARTING KHRL AT 30/1330Z.
DURING THE MISSION, FOUR SMALL UAS ARE PLANNED FOR RELEASE
WITHIN THE STORM ENVIRONMENT. THEY WILL OPERATE AT OR BELOW
5,000 FT FOR ABOUT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf