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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Fri, 14 Aug 2026 17:19:34 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 141719
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: Today, the pressure gradient will tighten
between subtropical high pressure across the western Atlantic
along 27N and the Colombian low. This will accelerate winds in
the south-central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale-force off
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela on tonight. Very rough seas
to 15 ft will build near and downwind of these gales in the
southwest Caribbean tonight and again Sat night. Please see the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A new tropical wave has been introduced along 19W from 05N to 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 09N to 16N and E of 26W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 34W, from 05N to 20N, moving
west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N
to 14N between 35W and 42W. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form this weekend or early next week while the
wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the central
tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical development
of this system in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance for
development in the next 7 days.
A tropical wave has been analyzed from 06N55W to near 20N51W,
moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is occurring from 06N to 17N between 50W and
62W. This system is moving into a region of increasing upper-level
winds and dry air, and the potential of development continues to
decrease. There is now a low chance of this system developing into
a tropical cyclone. Even though development is unlikely, gusty
winds and areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the
Lesser Antilles tonight and on Saturday.
The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W, moving
westward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is seen
with this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 22N17W and extends
southwestward to 10N38W to 12N52W and then to 09N56W. Convection
is discussed in the Tropical Waves section above.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by
a 1020 mb high near 27N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
prevail across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds associated with a surface trough
are ongoing over the SW Gulf waters along with moderate seas to 6
ft. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends westward across
Florida and into the Gulf region, and will change little through
Sat before weakening Sun and Mon. This pattern will produce mostly
gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of
fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and
into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a surface
trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW
Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast
period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning
in effect for the south-central basin effective tonight.
The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and
the Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force winds
over the central Caribbean waters. Moderate to rough seas are
ongoing over these waters. Fresh to strong trade winds and
moderate seas are over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail over the remaining
waters.
For the forecast, a tropical wave, with axis along 75W, combined
with the Bermuda High north of the region will enhance the trades
over the central Caribbean through Sat. Peak winds should reach
gale- force just north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela
tonight and Sat night. A second tropical wave, with axis along
52W, Invest AL92, should start impacting the Leeward Islands
tonight and Sat. Strong to near gale-force winds, rough seas and
areas of heavy rain are expected with the passage of the latter
wave. These weather conditions will shift westward toward the
central Caribbean and the Greater Antilles, including the Windward
Passage from Sat night through Mon. Afterwards, the tropical wave
may weaken, as it moves toward the W Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92
located over the central tropical Atlantic.
Surface ridging associated with the Azores High dominates the
entire subtropical Atlantic waters supporting moderate to fresh E
to SE winds S of 25N and W of 30W along with moderate seas. N of
25N, winds are moderate or weaker and seas slight to moderate.
Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are occurring near the Canary
Islands SE toward the coast of Africa. Upper level divergence
associated with an upper level trough continues to support
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Bahamas and along
the east coast of FL.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge, combined with
the passage of two tropical through the Caribbean Sea will cause
fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun night.
Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate for the
next few days. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will slowly push
across the northern forecast border east of 70W on Sun, causing a
wind shift to the NW and then N but with little change in wind
speeds on Sun and Mon north of 28N. The front will stall late on
Monday before dissipating by midweek.
$$
Adams
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Fri, 14 Aug 2026 17:19:34 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 141719
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: Today, the pressure gradient will tighten
between subtropical high pressure across the western Atlantic
along 27N and the Colombian low. This will accelerate winds in
the south-central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale-force off
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela on tonight. Very rough seas
to 15 ft will build near and downwind of these gales in the
southwest Caribbean tonight and again Sat night. Please see the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A new tropical wave has been introduced along 19W from 05N to 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 09N to 16N and E of 26W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 34W, from 05N to 20N, moving
west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N
to 14N between 35W and 42W. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form this weekend or early next week while the
wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the central
tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical development
of this system in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance for
development in the next 7 days.
A tropical wave has been analyzed from 06N55W to near 20N51W,
moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is occurring from 06N to 17N between 50W and
62W. This system is moving into a region of increasing upper-level
winds and dry air, and the potential of development continues to
decrease. There is now a low chance of this system developing into
a tropical cyclone. Even though development is unlikely, gusty
winds and areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the
Lesser Antilles tonight and on Saturday.
The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W, moving
westward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is seen
with this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 22N17W and extends
southwestward to 10N38W to 12N52W and then to 09N56W. Convection
is discussed in the Tropical Waves section above.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by
a 1020 mb high near 27N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
prevail across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds associated with a surface trough
are ongoing over the SW Gulf waters along with moderate seas to 6
ft. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends westward across
Florida and into the Gulf region, and will change little through
Sat before weakening Sun and Mon. This pattern will produce mostly
gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of
fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and
into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a surface
trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW
Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast
period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning
in effect for the south-central basin effective tonight.
The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and
the Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force winds
over the central Caribbean waters. Moderate to rough seas are
ongoing over these waters. Fresh to strong trade winds and
moderate seas are over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail over the remaining
waters.
For the forecast, a tropical wave, with axis along 75W, combined
with the Bermuda High north of the region will enhance the trades
over the central Caribbean through Sat. Peak winds should reach
gale- force just north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela
tonight and Sat night. A second tropical wave, with axis along
52W, Invest AL92, should start impacting the Leeward Islands
tonight and Sat. Strong to near gale-force winds, rough seas and
areas of heavy rain are expected with the passage of the latter
wave. These weather conditions will shift westward toward the
central Caribbean and the Greater Antilles, including the Windward
Passage from Sat night through Mon. Afterwards, the tropical wave
may weaken, as it moves toward the W Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92
located over the central tropical Atlantic.
Surface ridging associated with the Azores High dominates the
entire subtropical Atlantic waters supporting moderate to fresh E
to SE winds S of 25N and W of 30W along with moderate seas. N of
25N, winds are moderate or weaker and seas slight to moderate.
Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are occurring near the Canary
Islands SE toward the coast of Africa. Upper level divergence
associated with an upper level trough continues to support
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Bahamas and along
the east coast of FL.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge, combined with
the passage of two tropical through the Caribbean Sea will cause
fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun night.
Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate for the
next few days. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will slowly push
across the northern forecast border east of 70W on Sun, causing a
wind shift to the NW and then N but with little change in wind
speeds on Sun and Mon north of 28N. The front will stall late on
Monday before dissipating by midweek.
$$
Adams
Active Tropical Systems
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 05:53:27 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 14 Aug 2026 19:01:18 GMT - Fri, 14 Aug 2026 17:53:27 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 141753
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A tropical wave located about 350 miles east of the Windward Islands
is producing gusty winds and a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. This system is moving into a region of increasing
upper-level winds and dry air, and the potential of development
continues to decrease. Even though development is highly unlikely,
strong gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible across
portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic, located more
than 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While environmental
conditions are conducive for some development over the next few
days, the system could encounter strong upper-level winds next week,
decreasing its chances for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Adams/Cangialosi
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Fri, 14 Aug 2026 16:40:25 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
477
NOUS42 KNHC 141640
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1240 PM EDT FRI 14 AUGUST 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUGUST 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-075
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: NO WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS ARE TASKED IN THIS
TCPOD DUE TO THE NEED TO RELOCATE NOAA AND USAF WEATHER
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DUE TO THE
THREAT FROM TROPICAL STORM LALA. FLIGHTS TASKED IN TCPOD
26-074 ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FLY.
$$
KAL
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf