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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Fri, 21 Aug 2026 14:15:04 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 211414
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Aug 21 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 19W/20W
based on satellite imagery and on model diagnostics. It is moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Satellite imagery continues to show an ill-
defined mid- level cyclonic circulation near 12N19W. Increasing
scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the wave from 09N to
12N between 19W and 21W.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W south of
20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is
noted near this wave.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W south of
20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is
noted near this wave.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W south of 20N. It
is moving westward at about 15 kt. A few thunderstorms are active
near 15N76W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and continues
southwestward to 14N20W, then to 11N50W. The ITCZ extends from
11N55W to 11N63W. Outside of convection associated with tropical
wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
60 nm south of the trough between 32W-35W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N to 12N between 31W and 38W, and from 09N to
12N between 45W and 48W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A mid to upper-level trough stretches from Georgia southward along
the Florida peninsula. Associated showers and thunderstorms are
active over the north-central Gulf and off far southwest Florida
along a surface trough. Another surface trough is analyzed over
the far southwest Gulf off Veracruz. A 1018 mb high pressure area
is centered over the central Gulf. This pattern is supporting
moderate SE winds over the southwest where seas are 3-5 ft. Light
to gentle breezes and 1-3 ft are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the
central Gulf will prevail through early next week. A weak
pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate winds
and slight to locally moderate seas across much of the basin. A
surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north
and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These
winds will spread westward away from the peninsula at night as
the trough migrates into the SW Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection
across the basin.
The pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered S of
Bermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting
fresh to strong trades over the south- central basin, with
moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle over the NW
basin. Seas are moderate, except 7 to 9 ft in the south-central
portion and slight seas over the northwest Caribbean.
For the forecast, the pattern will continue to sustain fresh to
strong trade winds and rough seas across the south-central
Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas will prevail over the north-central and
eastern Caribbean through the weekend and into early next week. A
tropical wave will move across the tropical Atlantic and into the
far eastern Caribbean early next week enhancing the trade wind
flow across those waters. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and
slight to moderate seas are expected.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weak 1018 mb low is about 480 nm east-southeast of Bermuda near
30N56W, connected by a trough to another low pressure area farther
to the northeast. A second trough is southeast of the first,
extending from 30N49W to 26N65W. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms are active near these features under diffluent
flow aloft between an upper low to the southeast and an upper
ridge to the northwest. Farther west, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also active north of 25N east of an upper trough
extending across the Florida peninsula. Elsewhere west of 55W, the
subtropical ridge dominates, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure
between Bermuda and the central Bahamas near 26N68W. Fresh E to SE
winds are funneling along the north coast of Hispaniola south of
the ridge, supporting 3-5 ft seas. Elsewhere west of 55W, the
pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 2-4 ft.
Farther east, 1028 mb high pressure is centered over southwest of
the Azores, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5-7 ft
seas, except fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas off the
coast of Mauritania and Senegal.
For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will
support mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters north
of 23N going into early next week. Moderate to fresh trades are
expected south of about 23N, especially off northern Hispaniola
through the period. These trades may pulse to fresh to strong
speeds off northern Hispaniola at night through most of the
forecast period. Meanwhile, the northern portion of a tropical
wave is expected to move through the eastern portion of the area
early next week enhancing the trades some.
$$
Christensen
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Fri, 21 Aug 2026 14:15:04 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 211414
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Aug 21 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 19W/20W
based on satellite imagery and on model diagnostics. It is moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Satellite imagery continues to show an ill-
defined mid- level cyclonic circulation near 12N19W. Increasing
scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the wave from 09N to
12N between 19W and 21W.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W south of
20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is
noted near this wave.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W south of
20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is
noted near this wave.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W south of 20N. It
is moving westward at about 15 kt. A few thunderstorms are active
near 15N76W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and continues
southwestward to 14N20W, then to 11N50W. The ITCZ extends from
11N55W to 11N63W. Outside of convection associated with tropical
wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
60 nm south of the trough between 32W-35W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N to 12N between 31W and 38W, and from 09N to
12N between 45W and 48W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A mid to upper-level trough stretches from Georgia southward along
the Florida peninsula. Associated showers and thunderstorms are
active over the north-central Gulf and off far southwest Florida
along a surface trough. Another surface trough is analyzed over
the far southwest Gulf off Veracruz. A 1018 mb high pressure area
is centered over the central Gulf. This pattern is supporting
moderate SE winds over the southwest where seas are 3-5 ft. Light
to gentle breezes and 1-3 ft are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the
central Gulf will prevail through early next week. A weak
pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate winds
and slight to locally moderate seas across much of the basin. A
surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north
and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These
winds will spread westward away from the peninsula at night as
the trough migrates into the SW Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection
across the basin.
The pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered S of
Bermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting
fresh to strong trades over the south- central basin, with
moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle over the NW
basin. Seas are moderate, except 7 to 9 ft in the south-central
portion and slight seas over the northwest Caribbean.
For the forecast, the pattern will continue to sustain fresh to
strong trade winds and rough seas across the south-central
Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas will prevail over the north-central and
eastern Caribbean through the weekend and into early next week. A
tropical wave will move across the tropical Atlantic and into the
far eastern Caribbean early next week enhancing the trade wind
flow across those waters. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and
slight to moderate seas are expected.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weak 1018 mb low is about 480 nm east-southeast of Bermuda near
30N56W, connected by a trough to another low pressure area farther
to the northeast. A second trough is southeast of the first,
extending from 30N49W to 26N65W. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms are active near these features under diffluent
flow aloft between an upper low to the southeast and an upper
ridge to the northwest. Farther west, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also active north of 25N east of an upper trough
extending across the Florida peninsula. Elsewhere west of 55W, the
subtropical ridge dominates, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure
between Bermuda and the central Bahamas near 26N68W. Fresh E to SE
winds are funneling along the north coast of Hispaniola south of
the ridge, supporting 3-5 ft seas. Elsewhere west of 55W, the
pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 2-4 ft.
Farther east, 1028 mb high pressure is centered over southwest of
the Azores, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5-7 ft
seas, except fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas off the
coast of Mauritania and Senegal.
For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will
support mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters north
of 23N going into early next week. Moderate to fresh trades are
expected south of about 23N, especially off northern Hispaniola
through the period. These trades may pulse to fresh to strong
speeds off northern Hispaniola at night through most of the
forecast period. Meanwhile, the northern portion of a tropical
wave is expected to move through the eastern portion of the area
early next week enhancing the trades some.
$$
Christensen
Active Tropical Systems
- Sun, 23 Aug 2026 05:31:28 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 21 Aug 2026 22:06:21 GMT - Fri, 21 Aug 2026 17:31:28 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
218
ABNT20 KNHC 211731
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northeastern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure has developed over the
northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles north-northeast of the
Azores. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics on Saturday or early Sunday while it moves
east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern
Spain. The opportunity for tropical or subtropical development
should end by Sunday night when the system moves into unfavorable
environmental conditions. For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A weak area of low pressure located over the central subtropical
Atlantic a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda is producing
an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of
this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts
west-southwestward through Sunday and then turns northward early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at
https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt
$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Cangialosi
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Fri, 21 Aug 2026 16:12:00 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 211611
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 PM EDT FRI 21 AUGUST 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUGUST 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-082
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 79 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 42
A. 22/1730Z,2330Z A. 23/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0402C CYCLONE B. NOAA2 0502C CYCLONE
C. 22/1500Z C. 22/2000Z
D. 15.1N 150.2W D. 15.4N 151.3W
E. 22/1700Z TO 22/2330Z E. 22/2130Z TO 23/0230Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. FIX G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION
FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 77
A. 23/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 0602C CYCLONE
C. 23/0330Z
D. 15.7N 152.3W
E. 23/0500Z TO 23/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO TD 2-C
FOR 24/0000Z, DEPARTING PHJR AT 23/2000Z.
3. REMARKS:
A. NO SMALL UAS RELEASES ARE PLANNED DURING THE NOAA 42
MISSION TASKED IN TCPOD 26-081 FOR THE 22/0000Z SYNOPTIC
TIME.
B. DURING THE NOAA 42 MISSION TASKED FOR THE 23/0000Z
SYNOPTIC TIME, TWO SMALL UAS ARE PLANNED FOR RELEASE
WITHIN THE WRA. THEY WILL OPERATE AT OR BELOW 5,000 FT FOR
ABOUT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf