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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Wed, 16 Sep 2026 10:23:24 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 161023
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Sep 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 04N to 15N and between 19W and 31W.
A sharp tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles,
located along 61W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present from
12N to 20N and between 54W and 64W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W and continues
to 09N30W and to 08N44W. The ITCZ extends from 08N44W to 06N57W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm on either
side of the boundaries between 33W and 55W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A dissipating stationary front is located from Tampa Bay to
29N85W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the Gulf
waters, with the strongest storms occurring off NW Yucatan. High
pressure over the SE United States supports moderate to fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas east of 90W and in the eastern
Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, the aforementioned front is expected to
dissipate later today. A 1027 mb high pressure system over the SE
United States will support fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and
moderate to rough seas starting in the NE Gulf this afternoon,
spreading over the rest of the northern Gulf waters through Thu
night. Conditions will improve across the basin Fri into Sat,
allowing for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
during the weekend. Meanwhile, a broad upper-level trough over the
Bahamas will move toward Florida over the next few days,
increasing shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and
central Gulf waters..
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A tight pressure gradient continues to sustain fresh to strong
easterly trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas across the
central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate
seas are found in the eastern Caribbean, Windward Passage and lee
of Cuba. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.
Divergence aloft support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and surrounding waters. Similar
convection is seen in the Bay of Campeche and SW Caribbean.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean will force fresh
to locally near gale-force trades and moderate to locally rough
seas across across much of the central Caribbean. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas will prevail in the eastern
Caribbean. These conditions will persist through Fri night. Winds
will diminish and seas subside across the basin during the
weekend as the pressures gradient relaxes. A strong tropical wave
will move across the basin over the next few days supporting
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to near Cocoa Beach,
Florida. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 5-9 ft are
noted behind the front. A buoy near 31N71W recently reported 9 ft.
Meanwhile, a broad upper-level trough over the SE Bahamas and
Hispaniola is producing scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms west of 62W and south of the front. Moderate to
fresh easterly trade and moderate seas are noted south of 25N and
west of 55W. Elsewhere, weak high pressure supports slight to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in the rest of the SW
North Atlantic.
Another upper-level trough is noted in the north-central Atlantic
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of
25N and between 47W and 57W. The remainder of the tropical
Atlantic is under the influence of a strong subtropical ridge
centered north of the Azores. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas are evident south of 20N and west of 40W. Moderate
to locally fresh anticyclonic winds and moderate seas are
occurring in the remainder of the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will shift
southward over the next day or so and dissipate. The tight
pressure gradient between a 1027 mb high pressure over the SE
United States and the aforementioned front will result in fresh to
locally strong NE winds and seas to build to rough N of the
Bahamas and W of 70W today through Thu. Conditions will improve
late Thu into Fri, as broad ridging dominates the basin into the
weekend. Meanwhile, a broad upper-level trough over the SE Bahamas
and Hispaniola will support scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over much of the area over the next few days as the
system shifts northwestward. .
$$
Delgado
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Wed, 16 Sep 2026 10:23:24 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 161023
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Sep 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 04N to 15N and between 19W and 31W.
A sharp tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles,
located along 61W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present from
12N to 20N and between 54W and 64W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W and continues
to 09N30W and to 08N44W. The ITCZ extends from 08N44W to 06N57W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm on either
side of the boundaries between 33W and 55W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A dissipating stationary front is located from Tampa Bay to
29N85W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the Gulf
waters, with the strongest storms occurring off NW Yucatan. High
pressure over the SE United States supports moderate to fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas east of 90W and in the eastern
Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, the aforementioned front is expected to
dissipate later today. A 1027 mb high pressure system over the SE
United States will support fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and
moderate to rough seas starting in the NE Gulf this afternoon,
spreading over the rest of the northern Gulf waters through Thu
night. Conditions will improve across the basin Fri into Sat,
allowing for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
during the weekend. Meanwhile, a broad upper-level trough over the
Bahamas will move toward Florida over the next few days,
increasing shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and
central Gulf waters..
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A tight pressure gradient continues to sustain fresh to strong
easterly trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas across the
central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate
seas are found in the eastern Caribbean, Windward Passage and lee
of Cuba. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.
Divergence aloft support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and surrounding waters. Similar
convection is seen in the Bay of Campeche and SW Caribbean.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean will force fresh
to locally near gale-force trades and moderate to locally rough
seas across across much of the central Caribbean. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas will prevail in the eastern
Caribbean. These conditions will persist through Fri night. Winds
will diminish and seas subside across the basin during the
weekend as the pressures gradient relaxes. A strong tropical wave
will move across the basin over the next few days supporting
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to near Cocoa Beach,
Florida. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 5-9 ft are
noted behind the front. A buoy near 31N71W recently reported 9 ft.
Meanwhile, a broad upper-level trough over the SE Bahamas and
Hispaniola is producing scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms west of 62W and south of the front. Moderate to
fresh easterly trade and moderate seas are noted south of 25N and
west of 55W. Elsewhere, weak high pressure supports slight to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in the rest of the SW
North Atlantic.
Another upper-level trough is noted in the north-central Atlantic
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of
25N and between 47W and 57W. The remainder of the tropical
Atlantic is under the influence of a strong subtropical ridge
centered north of the Azores. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas are evident south of 20N and west of 40W. Moderate
to locally fresh anticyclonic winds and moderate seas are
occurring in the remainder of the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will shift
southward over the next day or so and dissipate. The tight
pressure gradient between a 1027 mb high pressure over the SE
United States and the aforementioned front will result in fresh to
locally strong NE winds and seas to build to rough N of the
Bahamas and W of 70W today through Thu. Conditions will improve
late Thu into Fri, as broad ridging dominates the basin into the
weekend. Meanwhile, a broad upper-level trough over the SE Bahamas
and Hispaniola will support scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over much of the area over the next few days as the
system shifts northwestward. .
$$
Delgado
Active Tropical Systems
- Thu, 17 Sep 2026 23:16:45 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 16 Sep 2026 14:20:12 GMT - Wed, 16 Sep 2026 11:16:45 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 161116
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of
Bermuda is associated with disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
development in the next few days while the system moves slowly
westward to west-northwestward over the subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Wed, 16 Sep 2026 13:13:18 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 161313
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT WED 16 SEPTEMBER 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-108
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf