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- Thu, 03 Oct 2024 14:37:59 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 5 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 5
000
WTNT33 KNHC 031437
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024
...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 30.8W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 30.8 West. Leslie is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h).A slow westward motion is
expected through tonight, followed by a slightly faster
west-northwestward motion Friday through Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is anticipated, and Leslie
is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or so.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams
- Thu, 03 Oct 2024 14:37:25 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm LESLIE Forecast/Advisory N... - Atlantic Tropical Storm LESLIE Forecast/Advisory Number 5 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 30.8W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 30.8W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 30.6W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 10.1N 31.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 10.4N 32.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.8N 34.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 11.4N 35.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 12.3N 37.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.3N 38.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 15.9N 41.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 18.6N 44.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 30.8W NEXT Advisory AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS
000
WTNT23 KNHC 031437
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 30.8W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 30.8W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 30.6W
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 10.1N 31.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 10.4N 32.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.8N 34.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 11.4N 35.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 12.3N 37.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.3N 38.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 15.9N 41.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 18.6N 44.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 30.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS
- Thu, 03 Oct 2024 14:38:24 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 5 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 5
531
WTNT43 KNHC 031438
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024
Leslie is becoming better organized this morning. An earlier
microwave pass depicted a more well-defined center with better
defined curved banding features. Recent satellite-derived wind data
depicts max winds around 38-40 kt. Subjective and objective Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates range from 35-40 kt. Given the
improved organizational structure and satellite trends will lean
towards the higher end of these estimates with an initial intensity
of 40 kt.
The tropical storm is moving slowly westward at an estimated motion
of 260/4 kt to the south of a subtropical ridge over the eastern
Atlantic. As we move into Friday and this weekend the system will
gradually turn west-northwestward then northwestward increasing its
forward speed rounding the subtropical ridge. Model guidance is
tightly clustered and in fairly good agreement. The NHC track
forecast is very near the previous, and lies near the simple and
corrected consensus aids.
The system is still feeling some of the effects of the outflow of
Kirk, however as Kirk begins to move further away shear is forecast
to weaken. The oceanic and atmospheric environmental conditions are
conducive for steady strengthening with warm sea surface temperature
and plenty of moisture. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the
upper-end of the guidance envelope given the improved structure and
favorable environment, and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus.
Towards the end of the forecast period the intensity forecast
plateaus given the system is forecast to track behind the cold wake
of Hurricane Kirk.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 10.1N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 10.1N 31.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 10.4N 32.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 10.8N 34.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 11.4N 35.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 12.3N 37.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 13.3N 38.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 15.9N 41.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 18.6N 44.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams