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2026 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models

Tracking Fernand – 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2026 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

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Tracking Fernand– 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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NHC Public Advisory
  • Tue, 22 Sep 2026 02:33:14 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 11 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 11
    000
    WTNT31 KNHC 220233
    TCPAT1

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 11
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
    300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026

    ...FAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


    SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...32.3N 33.1W
    ABOUT 525 MI...840 KM SW OF THE AZORES
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
    located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 33.1 West. Fay is moving
    toward the southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn toward the
    west-southwest then west is expected through midweek.

    Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
    higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Fay is likely to
    degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by late Tuesday.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
    from the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

    $$
    Forecaster Adams
NHC Forecast Advisory
  • Tue, 22 Sep 2026 02:33:14 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Forecast/Advisory Numb... - Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Forecast/Advisory Number 11
    000
    WTNT21 KNHC 220233
    TCMAT1

    TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
    0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 33.1W AT 22/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 7 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
    34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
    4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 30SW 90NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 33.1W AT 22/0300Z
    AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 32.7W

    FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.6N 34.1W
    MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.7N 36.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.1N 37.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.7N 39.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.5N 41.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N 42.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 29.5N 44.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

    OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 33.1W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

    $$
    FORECASTER ADAMS
NHC Discussion
  • Tue, 22 Sep 2026 02:33:44 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 11 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 11
    000
    WTNT41 KNHC 220233
    TCDAT1

    Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 11
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
    300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026

    Fay is feeling the effects of strong west-northwesterly wind shear
    tonight. Nearly all of the convection is displaced well to the east
    of the fully exposed low-level center, and low-level water vapor
    imagery shows dry air enveloping much of the system. Recent
    objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased
    over the past several hours and range from 25-38 kt. Based on the
    degraded satellite presentation and the downward trend in intensity
    estimates, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory.

    The tropical storm is moving southwestward, or 215/07 kt, along the
    southeastern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge centered west of
    the system. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest and then west
    is expected over the next few days as the ridge strengthens and
    expands eastward across the central Atlantic. The official NHC track
    forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and remains close
    to the HCCA solution.

    Continued weakening is expected on Tuesday as dry mid-level air
    wraps around the periphery of Fay. In fact, simulated satellite
    imagery from the ECMWF and GFS suggests that Fay may struggle to
    maintain organized convection as early as Tuesday, and the system
    could become post-tropical by that time. However, the strong
    upper-level trough currently producing significant wind shear over
    the region is forecast to lift away from Fay over the next day or
    so, while the cyclone may move over slightly warmer waters in the
    coming days. These changes could briefly allow for some shallow
    convection to redevelop around midweek, although any such resurgence
    is expected to be short-lived. Given the overall unfavorable
    environment and anticipated weakening, the latest NHC forecast shows
    Fay becoming a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday night.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 22/0300Z 32.3N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
    12H 22/1200Z 31.6N 34.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
    24H 23/0000Z 30.7N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    36H 23/1200Z 30.1N 37.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    48H 24/0000Z 29.7N 39.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    60H 24/1200Z 29.5N 41.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    72H 25/0000Z 29.5N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    96H 26/0000Z 29.5N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    120H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Adams
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
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