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Tracking Fay - 2026 Hurricane Season
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NHC Public Advisory
- Sun, 20 Sep 2026 14:55:55 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 5 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 5
000
WTNT31 KNHC 201455
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026
...TROPICAL STORM FAY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST...
SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 33.0W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 33.0 West. Fay is moving
toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continues through the rest of the day. Afterwards a turn to the
southwest is expected on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next day or so, and Fay could approach hurricane intensity tonight.
A gradual weakening trend is expected to begin on Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.
$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch
NHC Forecast Advisory
- Sun, 20 Sep 2026 14:55:24 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Forecast/Advisory Numb... - Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Forecast/Advisory Number 5
000
WTNT21 KNHC 201455
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 33.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 33.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 33.1W
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.3N 32.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.9N 32.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 32.9N 32.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.7N 34.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.6N 35.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.8N 37.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 28.8N 41.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 33.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH
NHC Discussion
- Sun, 20 Sep 2026 14:56:20 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 5 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 5
000
WTNT41 KNHC 201456
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026
Deep convection continues to build near the center of Fay over the
last several hours. The current objective intensity estimates from
UW-CIMSS are in the range of 39-52 kt, and the most recent TAFB
Dvorak fix was a T3.0/45 kt. In addition, there was an ASCAT pass
that showed a peak wind vector of 43 kt. Given the uncertainties
due to undersampling, the initial intensity for the storm has been
raised to 50 kt. The cyclone continues to remain very compact with
its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend out to about 40
n mi.
Both a relatively moist environment and positive interactions
with an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should allow Fay to
further intensify for the next 12 to 24 hours. After the trough
lifts on Monday, the increase in wind shear and dry air should lead
to a gradual weakening of the cyclone. The current NHC forecast
calls for Fay to become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday and
then dissipate by the end of the week. The official intensity
forecast is a little higher than the model guidance in the short
term to account for the storm's structure being more improved and
the expected baroclinic support from the trough. This small system
could approach hurricane strength later today or tonight.
Fay is slowly moving off to the northeast, with the initial motion
estimated around 010/5 kt. This general motion should continue for
the rest of the day. However, a low- to mid-level ridge is expected
to build to the north of the storm by Monday, which will cause Fay
to turn southwestward and gradually accelerate in that direction
over the course of the forecast period. The current NHC track
forecast is similiar to the previous track forecast with a few
minor adjustments and remains in good agreement with HCCA and
GDMI.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 34.1N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 34.3N 32.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 33.9N 32.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 32.9N 32.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 31.7N 34.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 30.6N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z 29.8N 37.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1200Z 28.8N 41.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
