2025 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models

Tracking Erin – 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Track The Tropics
SUPPORT TRACK THE TROPICS Over the last decade plus if you appreciate the information and tracking I provide during the season along with this website which donations help keep it running please consider a one time... recurring or yearly donation if you are able to help me out...

Venmo: @TrackTheTropicsLouisiana
Website: TrackTheTropics.com/DONATE
DONATE

Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2025 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Tracking Erin– 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Share this page
NHC Important Links: NHC Discussion / Public Advisory / Forecast Advisory / Wind Probs / NWS Local Products / US Watch/Warning / Graphics / Storm Archive
Storm Tracking Important Links: Wind Analysis / Coastal Inundation Info / Tide Information / Surge Map / Surge Potential / Coastal Risk Map / Microwave Imagery / Advanced Dvorak ADT / GOES19 Satellite Storm Page / FSU Track Probability / Colorado State Tracker / Navy NRL Page / NHC Best Track / NOAA AOML Tracker / Tropical Atlantic Storm Page / NCAR Guidance Page / CyclonicWX Tracker / CIMSS Tracker / Tropical Tidbits Storm Page /UWM Tracker
Projected Path with Watches and Warnings Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Key Messages Key Messages
Zoomed In Watches and Warnings Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Additional Projected Path Swath Additional Projected Path Swath
Current Radar of Storm Current Satellite, Radar and Winds
Current Wind Field Wind Field
Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds
Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds
Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities
Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities
NOAA NESDIS Floaters Floater
Floater
Floater
Latest Model Tracks 06L Model Tracks
Latest Intensity Models Intensity Forecasts
Surge Forecast surge
Rainfall Forecast rainfall
Flash Flood Potential rainfall
Sea Surface Temps Around Storm Water Vapor
Windshear Around Storm Windshear
Past Track History Past Track History
CyclonicWX Storm Page
Top Analog Tracks Top Analog Tracks
623 Visitors Tracking The Tropics in the past hour!
Radar Loops Nearby Radar Loops Near Storm
Archived Loops
SUPPORT TRACK THE TROPICS Over the last decade plus if you appreciate the information and tracking I provide during the season along with this website which donations help keep it running please consider a one time... recurring or yearly donation if you are able to help me out...
DONATE
Other Floaters:WeatherNerds - NRL Floaters - CyclonicWx - RAMMB Sat - RAMMB Model Data - RAMMB Wind Products
LIVE Power Outage Map Power Outages
SPC Watches and Warnings Power Outages
Average Days For System To Reach U.S. Average Days For System To Reach U.S.
Check Scheduled Recon Flight Plans HERE Storm Recon
EURO Ensemble Tracks EURO/GFS Ensembles from WeatherNerds
GFS Ensemble Tracks EURO/GFS Ensembles from WeatherNerds
Microwave Imagery Microwave Imagery
NHC Public Advisory
  • Tue, 12 Aug 2025 08:44:06 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 4 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 4
    629
    WTNT35 KNHC 120843
    TCPAT5

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 4
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
    500 AM AST Tue Aug 12 2025

    ...ERIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING SOON...
    ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK IN THE CENTRAL
    TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


    SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...17.4N 34.3W
    ABOUT 690 MI...1105 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
    ABOUT 1890 MI...3045 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
    located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 34.3 West. Erin is
    moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion is
    expected to continue for the next several days with a decrease in
    forward speed and a gradual turn toward the west-northwest.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and
    Erin is expected to become a hurricane in the next couple of days.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
    from the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
NHC Forecast Advisory
  • Tue, 12 Aug 2025 08:44:01 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Erin Forecast/Advisory Num... - Atlantic Tropical Storm Erin Forecast/Advisory Number 4
    578
    WTNT25 KNHC 120843
    TCMAT5

    TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
    0900 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 34.3W AT 12/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 19 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
    34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
    4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 34.3W AT 12/0900Z
    AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 33.3W

    FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.2N 37.2W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

    FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.0N 40.5W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

    FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.0N 43.6W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
    34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.4N 46.8W
    MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
    64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
    50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
    34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.0N 49.9W
    MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
    50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
    34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.7N 52.7W
    MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
    50 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
    34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 20.0N 58.0W
    MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
    50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
    34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

    OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 21.5N 62.5W
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
    50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
    34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 34.3W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Discussion
  • Tue, 12 Aug 2025 08:45:30 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 4 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 4
    228
    WTNT45 KNHC 120845
    TCDAT5

    Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 4
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
    500 AM AST Tue Aug 12 2025

    The storm has not become significantly better organized on
    geostationary satellite imagery over the past few hours. Deep
    convection has diminished in intensity, as evidenced by a warming of
    the cloud tops. An AMSR microwave image from a few hours ago showed
    a well-defined banding feature over the southern semicircle of the
    system. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 35 to 45
    kt and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are generally near 40 kt.
    Thus the advisory intensity is held at 40 kt.

    Erin continues its rapid westward motion, at around 265/19 kt.
    A strong 500 mb ridge is situated to the north of the cyclone,
    resulting in a strong easterly steering current. The tropical
    cyclone should continue on a general westward heading for the next
    few days with a gradual decrease in forward speed as the ridge
    weakens slightly. Later in the forecast period, the ridge is
    expected to weaken a little more, and a more west-northwestward
    track is likely. The official forecast track is a little left, or
    south, of the previous one in 3-5 days, and very close to the
    latest dynamical model consensus. This also very similar to the
    mean of the GFS and ECMWF solutions. The spread of the track
    models suggest near-average confidence in the NHC forecast.

    During the forecast period, Erin will be traversing warmer
    ocean waters and the SHIPS model diagnoses low vertical wind shear
    over the system for the next several days. However, the model does
    not indicate an increase in the environmental low- to
    mid-tropospheric humidity during the next 72 hours or so.
    Nonetheless, given the low shear and increasing SSTs, strengthening
    is expected. The official intensity forecast is at the high end of
    the model guidance and shows Erin becoming a major hurricane in
    around 5 days. There is significant uncertainty in intensity
    predictions at this time range.


    KEY MESSAGES:

    1. It is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, Erin may
    bring to the northern Leeward Islands, Bermuda, or the east coast of
    the United States. As we approach the climatological peak of the
    hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your
    preparedness plans are in place.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 12/0900Z 17.4N 34.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
    12H 12/1800Z 17.2N 37.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
    24H 13/0600Z 17.0N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
    36H 13/1800Z 17.0N 43.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
    48H 14/0600Z 17.4N 46.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
    60H 14/1800Z 18.0N 49.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
    72H 15/0600Z 18.7N 52.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
    96H 16/0600Z 20.0N 58.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
    120H 17/0600Z 21.5N 62.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 7 Day GTWO graphic
Share this page