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Elsa – 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2025 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Elsa – 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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NHC Public Advisory on Elsa
  • Mon, 18 Aug 2025 17:49:53 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 29a - Atlantic Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 29a
    000
    WTNT35 KNHC 181749
    TCPAT5

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
    200 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

    ...ERIN LIKELY TO BECOME EVEN LARGER OVER THE COMING DAYS...


    SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...23.5N 71.1W
    ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
    ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Turks and Caicos Islands
    * Southeast Bahamas

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Central Bahamas

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area.

    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

    Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the North Carolina Outer
    Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
    near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 71.1 West. Erin is moving toward
    the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the northwest
    is expected later today, followed by a turn to the north on
    Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to
    pass to the east of the southeastern Bahamas today and move between
    Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by the middle of
    the week.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
    Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
    today. Erin is likely to remain a dangerous major hurricane
    through the middle of this week.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
    the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
    miles (370 km).

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

    RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
    rainfall across portions of Hispaniola through today and through
    Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas east from San
    Salvador Island. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
    locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
    associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
    Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
    associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
    Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Turks
    and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Tropical storm
    conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
    today through Tuesday.

    SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
    the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
    next several days. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
    life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
    from your local weather forecast office for more information.

    A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
    at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

    STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
    onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast
    Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
    waves.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
NHC Forecast Advisory on Elsa
  • Mon, 18 Aug 2025 15:40:24 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Erin Forecast/Advisory Number 2... - Atlantic Hurricane Erin Forecast/Advisory Number 29
    000
    WTNT25 KNHC 181540
    TCMAT5

    HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
    1500 UTC MON AUG 18 2025

    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 70.8W AT 18/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
    64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
    50 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.
    34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW.
    4 M SEAS....360NE 300SE 180SW 300NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 70.8W AT 18/1500Z
    AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 70.5W

    FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.2N 71.6W
    MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
    64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
    50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.
    34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 180NW.

    FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.7N 72.5W
    MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
    64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
    50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.
    34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 180NW.

    FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.4N 73.2W
    MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
    64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
    50 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.
    34 KT...200NE 210SE 160SW 180NW.

    FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.5N 73.5W
    MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
    64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
    50 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.
    34 KT...210NE 220SE 180SW 180NW.

    FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.7N 73.1W
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
    64 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
    50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
    34 KT...210NE 240SE 190SW 190NW.

    FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.9N 71.6W
    MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
    64 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
    50 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
    34 KT...230NE 260SE 210SW 220NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 37.7N 65.0W
    MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
    50 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 120NW.
    34 KT...270NE 280SE 240SW 240NW.

    OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 42.4N 53.0W
    MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
    50 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 130NW.
    34 KT...320NE 320SE 300SW 250NW.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 70.8W

    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 18/1800Z

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Discussion on Elsa
  • Mon, 18 Aug 2025 15:51:33 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 29 - Atlantic Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 29
    766
    WTNT45 KNHC 181551
    TCDAT5

    Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 29
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
    1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

    Erin continues to have an impressive cloud pattern on satellite
    imagery with the eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops and
    numerous convective banding features. A considerable amount of
    lightning activity is occurring over the eastern portion of the
    circulation. Observations from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
    Hunter aircraft indicate some strengthening this morning, with the
    central pressure dropping to around 935 mb and peak 700-mb flight
    level winds supporting an intensity close to 120 kt. Rain bands
    over Erin's southwest quadrant will continue to cause
    tropical-storm-force winds over portions of the southeastern
    Bahamas today.

    Based on a number of recent aircraft center fixes, Erin's forward
    speed has slowed to around 8 or 9 kt. Although there hasn't
    been much motion this morning, the hurricane has again wobbled
    to the west-northwest. Nonetheless, the steering pattern and track
    guidance remains about the same as it has been over the past day.
    Water vapor imagery shows a trough developing near U.S.
    mid-Atlantic coastline, and creating a weakness in the western
    Atlantic subtropical ridge. During the next few days, Erin is
    expected to turn northward into this weakness, and move between
    Bermuda and the U.S. east coast in about 72 hours. The official
    track forecast is very close to the previous NHC prediction and
    close to the dynamical model consensus. Later in the forecast
    period, an approaching trough should cause Erin to accelerate
    northeastward over the northern Atlantic.

    Given Erin's impressive deep convection and strong upper-level
    outflow, it is expected to strengthen some more by later today.
    The SHIPS guidance diagnoses some northerly shear over the
    system, which could counteract the other conducive factors in the
    environment. The official intensity forecast is near or a little
    above the simple and corrected model guidance. The system is
    expected to remain a major hurricane through the middle of this
    week.

    Erin's expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions
    over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34-
    and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and
    graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those
    winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is
    considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to
    derive the wind speed probability product.

    KEY MESSAGES:

    1. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected through today over portions
    of Hispaniola and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and the
    Bahamas eastward from San Salvador Island. Flash and urban flooding
    are possible.

    2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
    Islands and in the southeast Bahamas today. Tropical storm
    conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
    today through Tuesday.

    3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
    currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
    the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

    4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda
    should monitor the progress of Erin. Tropical storm conditions
    and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks
    beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch
    may be required later today.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 18/1500Z 23.1N 70.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
    12H 19/0000Z 24.2N 71.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
    24H 19/1200Z 25.7N 72.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
    36H 20/0000Z 27.4N 73.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
    48H 20/1200Z 29.5N 73.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
    60H 21/0000Z 31.7N 73.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
    72H 21/1200Z 33.9N 71.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
    96H 22/1200Z 37.7N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
    120H 23/1200Z 42.4N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
2 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
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