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Tracking Dolly - 2026 Hurricane Season
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NHC Public Advisory
- Fri, 28 Aug 2026 02:44:19 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Dolly Advisory Number 3 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Dolly Advisory Number 3
000
WTNT34 KNHC 280244
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolly Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042026
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 27 2026
...DOLLY CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...
...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 42.3W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2120 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Dolly.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 42.3 West. Dolly is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, this system should be nearing the Leeward Islands this
weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is likely during the next 48 hours, and
Dolly is forecast to degenerate into a tropical wave before it
reaches the Leeward Islands.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Dolly can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Heavy rain from Dolly could affect the Leeward Islands
late Saturday into Sunday, with rainfall moving into the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy
rain may produce flash flooding within areas of higher terrain of
the Leeward Islands.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Forecast Advisory
- Fri, 28 Aug 2026 02:43:49 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Dolly Forecast/Advisory Nu... - Atlantic Tropical Storm Dolly Forecast/Advisory Number 3
000
WTNT24 KNHC 280243
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042026
0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 42.3W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 42.3W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 41.4W
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.3N 45.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.2N 50.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.0N 54.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.7N 59.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.0N 63.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 42.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Discussion
- Fri, 28 Aug 2026 02:44:50 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 3 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 3
000
WTNT44 KNHC 280244
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042026
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 27 2026
Dolly appears to be more or less maintaining its intensity at this
time. However, the associated deep convection is not very
well-organized, with no well-defined banding features evident on
satellite images. The center of circulation is estimated to be on
the north side of the main area of convection. The Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB remains at 35 kt. There was a
Metop-B scatterometer pass from just before 00Z which showed just a
couple of 35-kt vectors. Therefore the advisory intensity is kept
at 35 kt. The scatterometer pass did not completely capture the
circulation of the storm but it did suggest some
north-northeastward to south-southwestward elongation of the center.
The storm continues to move quickly toward the west and the initial
motion estimate is 280/20 kt, about the same as before. Dolly is
forecast to move mainly westward at a fast forward speed for the
next couple of days on the south side of a strong high pressure
ridge over the central Atlantic. There have been no significant
changes in the track guidance from earlier today. There is
fairly good agreement amongst the various model tracks, and the
official track forecast is roughly in the middle of these tracks.
This is close to the latest Google DeepMind solution.
Although it will encounter warmer ocean waters, Dolly is likely to
move into less favorable atmospheric conditions during the next
couple of days. Some slight short-term strengthening is possible,
but increasing vertical wind shear, relatively dry air and the
fast forward motion of the system should begin to adversely affect
Dolly fairly soon. The global models show the system degenerating
into a tropical wave while it approaches the Lesser Antilles, and
the NHC intensity forecast is close to the model consensus.
Post-tropical positions are provided at 48-60h given the risk of
gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Heavy rains from Dolly or its remnants could affect the Leeward
Islands late Saturday into Sunday with possible impacts in the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This
heavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of
higher terrain of the Leeward Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0300Z 13.8N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 14.3N 45.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 15.2N 50.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 16.0N 54.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 16.7N 59.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 30/1200Z 17.0N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
