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Tracking PTC One (Arthur) – 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
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NHC Public Advisory
- Tue, 16 Jun 2026 17:58:17 +0000: Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 1a - Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 1a
000
WTNT31 KNHC 161758
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
...DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING OCCURING OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA FROM POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE....
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 97.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSW OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sargent to Morgan City
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.1 North, longitude 97.8 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with an
increase in forward speed is anticipated over the next couple of
days. The disturbance should move offshore the Texas coast tonight
or early Wednesday, move roughly parallel to the upper Texas coast
later on Wednesday and move back inland in extreme eastern Texas or
southwestern Louisiana late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and
could become a tropical storm early on Wednesday. Weakening is
anticipated on Thursday after the system moves back on land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around
12 inches through Thursday from the Mid to Upper Texas Coast through
much of Louisiana, central and southern portions of Mississippi and
Alabama, and the far western portion of the Florida Panhandle. This
could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero
For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this potential tropical cyclone, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning early Wednesday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA...2-4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.
SURF: Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents
TORNADO: A tornado or two is possible through tonight from the
Upper Texas coast across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake
NHC Forecast Advisory
- Tue, 16 Jun 2026 14:55:43 +0000: Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone One Forecast/A... - Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone One Forecast/Advisory Number 1
000
WTNT21 KNHC 161455
TCMAT1
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012026
1500 UTC TUE JUN 16 2026
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 98.0W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 98.0W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 98.2W
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 27.4N 97.2W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 28.2N 95.8W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 29.6N 93.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.6N 91.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 98.0W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NHC Discussion
- Tue, 16 Jun 2026 14:57:12 +0000: Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1 - Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1
000
WTNT41 KNHC 161457
TCDAT1
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
The disturbance (AL90) that we have been tracking for several days
across the southern Gulf of America into northeastern Mexico has
moved into southern Texas. While the system is producing plentiful
convection, it still lacks a well-defined center. However, most of
the guidance suggest that it will move offshore tonight, and winds
will increase to tropical-storm-force on Wednesday. Thus,
advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone One,
and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of the
Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. Regardless of
whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and
life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards
with this system. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, based on
surface and radar data.
The system is moving slowly northeastward this morning. We expect
the low to continue moving in that general direction with some
increase in forward speed due to it encountering faster flow
associated with a flat mid-latitude trough over the eastern United
States. Model guidance hugs the Texas coast but generally keeps
it offshore for about a day on Wednesday before moving back onshore
late Wednesday or early Thursday. The NHC forecast is between the
latest dynamical model consensus and the corrected-model consensus
HCCA.
The upper-level environment is not particularly conducive for much
intensification with a fair bit of shear and close proximity to
land. However, there is enough upper-level support from a jet to
the north to cause large-scale deepening, along with convective
support from warm Gulf waters, so some intensification is
anticipated through Wednesday. This forecast is similar to the
model consensus IVCN. It should be noted that this system will
likely never have a pure tropical appearance on satellite due to the
upper trough and shear, with a highly asymmetric appearance with the
rainfall and winds favoring the eastern semicircle.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is possible
across the Texas coast eastward into central Mississippi through
Thursday. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the
weekend. Widespread small stream and minor river flooding is
expected along the Texas coast into southwest Louisiana, with
isolated areas of significant river flooding possible across the
Texas Coast and Louisiana.
2. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to become a tropical
storm as it moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf coast
through Wednesday. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from
Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana.
3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of
the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 27.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/0000Z 27.4N 97.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 17/1200Z 28.2N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
36H 18/0000Z 29.6N 93.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 31.6N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
