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- Wed, 09 Oct 2024 08:37:25 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 28 - Atlantic Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 28
000
WTNT33 KNHC 090837
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024
...RESILIENT LESLIE COULD STRENGTHEN SOME MORE TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 47.8W
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 47.8 West. Leslie is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slight reduction in
forward speed and turn toward the north and north-northeast is
forecast during the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is anticipated today and
tonight, followed by weakening through early next week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
- Wed, 09 Oct 2024 08:36:22 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane LESLIE Forecast/Advisory Number... - Atlantic Hurricane LESLIE Forecast/Advisory Number 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 47.8W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 47.8W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 47.5W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.0N 48.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.9N 50.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.4N 50.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.6N 48.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N 46.1W...Post-Tropical MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 34.3N 36.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 35.4N 28.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 47.8W NEXT Advisory AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
166
WTNT23 KNHC 090836
TCMAT3
HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 47.8W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 47.8W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 47.5W
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.0N 48.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.9N 50.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.4N 50.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.6N 48.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N 46.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 34.3N 36.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 35.4N 28.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 47.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
- Wed, 09 Oct 2024 08:37:52 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 28 - Atlantic Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 28
000
WTNT43 KNHC 090837
TCDAT3
Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024
Conventional satellite imagery shows that Leslie's cloud pattern has
changed little during the past few hours. Earlier SSMIS and AMSU-B
microwaves overpasses, however, indicated that Leslie's structure
has become vertically tilted southeast to northwest, indicative of
the previously mentioned mid-level southerly shear component. A
blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB and a 0610 UTC UW-CIMSS 72 kt SATCON analysis yield an
initial intensity at 70 kt.
Although the undercutting shear is expected to persist, slight
intensity fluctuations are possible today and tonight while Leslie
moves through a marginally conducive thermodynamic environment and
over warm oceanic surface temperatures. Afterward, the global
models show an upper-tropospheric anticyclone developing over the SW
Atlantic, between Milton and Leslie. This feature is expected to
spread moderate northerly shear over the central subtropical
Atlantic inhibiting ventilation aloft over the north portion of the
cyclone. Consequently, weakening is expected, and Leslie is
forecast to quickly lose its associated convection and become a
post-tropical cyclone in 3 days.
Leslie's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, 310/9 kt,
and this general motion is expected to continue during the next
couple of days. By mid-period, the cyclone is forecast to slow in
forward speed and turn toward the north while rounding the
southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the northeast.
Afterward, Leslie should accelerate and turn toward the northeast in
response to a major shortwave trough approaching the cyclone from
the northeast. The NHC forecast is close to the previous one and is
based on a compromise of the TVCN and HCCA consensus models.
Leslie's wind radii were adjusted based on 2354 UTC METOP-B and 0049
UTC METOP-C scatterometer passes.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 21.2N 47.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 22.0N 48.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 23.9N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 25.4N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 27.6N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 30.0N 46.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 13/0600Z 34.3N 36.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 14/0600Z 35.4N 28.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Roberts