2025 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models

Larry – 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2025 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Larry – 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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NHC Public Advisory on Larry
  • Wed, 17 Sep 2025 08:34:46 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 1 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 1
    000
    WTNT32 KNHC 170834
    TCPAT2

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 1
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
    500 AM AST Wed Sep 17 2025

    ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


    SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...13.7N 45.9W
    ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
    was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 45.9 West. The
    depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
    west-northwestward to northwestward motion across the tropical and
    subtropical central Atlantic is expected during the next few days.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Slow strengthening is expected, and the system could become a
    tropical storm later today or tonight.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Forecast Advisory on Larry
  • Wed, 17 Sep 2025 08:34:47 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Seven Forecast/Adviso... - Atlantic Tropical Depression Seven Forecast/Advisory Number 1
    000
    WTNT22 KNHC 170834
    TCMAT2

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
    0900 UTC WED SEP 17 2025

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 45.9W AT 17/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 45.9W AT 17/0900Z
    AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 45.5W

    FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.8N 47.4W
    MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
    34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

    FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.6N 49.6W
    MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
    34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.0N 51.9W
    MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
    34 KT...150NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.7N 54.0W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...150NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.4N 55.9W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.6N 57.6W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
    34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 24.0N 60.0W
    MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
    50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
    34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 90NW.

    OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 26.9N 63.0W
    MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
    50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
    34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 45.9W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

    $$
    FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Discussion on Larry
  • Wed, 17 Sep 2025 08:35:48 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 1 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 1
    000
    WTNT42 KNHC 170835
    TCDAT2

    Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 1
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
    500 AM AST Wed Sep 17 2025

    Satellite data indicate that Invest 92L over the central tropical
    Atlantic has now developed into a tropical depression. ASCAT data
    from around 00Z showed that the circulation of the system had
    improved, and although it was not well defined at the time of the
    pass, the system was only lacking some northerly winds on its west
    side. Since deep convection has been persisting and consolidating
    near the center, it appears to now meet the convective and
    circulation criteria needed to be considered a tropical cyclone.
    However, it should be noted that the system is quite large and there
    is still considerable north-south elongation in the low-level
    structure. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a blend of
    the ASCAT data and the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The
    development of this system breaks a nearly 3-week streak of no
    tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin during the peak of the
    hurricane season.

    The depression is well away from land and roughly midway between the
    Cabo Verde Islands and the Windward Islands. The system is
    estimated to be moving westward at 11 kt, but this is of low
    confidence since the center has only recently formed. A turn to the
    northwest, perhaps influenced by a center formation, is expected to
    occur soon as the depression moves toward a weakness in the Atlantic
    subtropical ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level low to its north.
    The models show this low weakening in a day or two, which will
    likely cause the cyclone to turn back to the west-northwest late
    this week. However, the system should reach the western periphery
    of the ridge this weekend, resulting in a turn to the northwest or
    north. The NHC track forecast is a little to the right of the
    consensus aids, giving more weight to the ECMWF and Google Deep Mind
    predictions, which are faster and on the right side of the guidance.
    Based on the steering pattern, and deterministic and ensemble model
    solutions, there is high confidence that this system should pass
    well east of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Interests in Bermuda
    should monitor forecasts of the depression over the next several
    days.

    Only modest strengthening is expected over the next day or two as
    the depression continues to battle moderate shear from the
    aforementioned low aloft and intrusions of dry air. However, more
    notable strengthening seems likely by the weekend when the system
    moves into more conducive environmental conditions. The NHC
    intensity forecast shows the system reaching hurricane strength
    toward the end of the period, but it should be noted that the spread
    in the models at that time is significant and ranges from solutions
    showing a weak low to a major hurricane. This prediction is
    generally in line with the IVCN aid.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 17/0900Z 13.7N 45.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
    12H 17/1800Z 15.8N 47.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
    24H 18/0600Z 17.6N 49.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
    36H 18/1800Z 19.0N 51.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
    48H 19/0600Z 19.7N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
    60H 19/1800Z 20.4N 55.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
    72H 20/0600Z 21.6N 57.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
    96H 21/0600Z 24.0N 60.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
    120H 22/0600Z 26.9N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
2 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
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