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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sun, 19 Jul 2026 00:14:51 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 190014
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Jul 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the
western Atlantic high pressure ridge north of the basin roughly
along 27N-28N and the Colombian low will continue to support
pulsing northeast to east winds to gale force over the waters
north of Colombia tonight. Otherwise, strong to near-gale force
trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the
central Caribbean into early Mon before becoming confined to
south of 15N. Rough to very rough seas, in the 12 to 14 ft range,
will develop during the times of peak winds.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (Invest AL91): Satellite
images and surface observations indicate that a broad surface low is
located over the eastern Gulf of America. Within this area of broad
low pressure, a 1015 mb low is analyzed over the eastern Gulf near
27N84.5W. Presently, winds are light. Satellite imagery shows
disorganized moderate to isolated strong convection from 26N to 28N
between 85W and 88W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are elsewhere from 23N to 29N east of 90W. This activity may produce
gusty winds, frequent lightning and rough seas. Mariners should
exercise caution across this area. Gradual development of this
system is possible, and it could become a tropical depression while
it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward during the next few
days. Interests along the Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia should monitor the progress of this system as
it is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of that region during
the next several days. This system has a medium chance for tropical
cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the
latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane
Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W from
03N to 20N moving westward near 15 kt. Isolated showers are
near axis from 04N to 10N and from 15N to 20N.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W south
of 18N to inland South America. It is moving westward around
20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between
52W and 58W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 20N16W, and
continues southwestward to 16N23W and to 07N42W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ to 07N45W and to 07N52W. Scattered
moderate convection is south of the trough from 09N to 13N
between 19W-24W. A 1012 low is near 12N20W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a broad
low pressure area over the eastern section of the Gulf that has a
medium chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48
hours.
Elsewhere, a 1021 mb high center that is located south-southwest of
Louisiana continues to basically control the wind regime throughout
the basin generally maintaining gentle to moderate winds. Slight to
moderate seas pretty much prevail.
For the forecast, the low pressure will slowly move northward
or north-northwestward during the next few days bringing heavy
rain to the Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and southwestern
Georgia. There is a medium chance of tropical formation with this
system through the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will
dominate, producing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas through early next week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A Gale Warning remains in effect for the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features
section for more details. Winds are expected to peak to gale force
tonight.
The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressure to its south is generally sustaining
strong to near gale-force trades over the central Caribbean, with
the strongest winds of near gale force noted offshore Colombia
per latest satellite scatterometer data passes. Latest satellite
altimeter data passes indicate rough to very rough seas to 14 ft
over these same waters. Meanwhile, the latest satellite
scatterometer data passes show mostly fresh trades south of about
18N and east of 82W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft over these waters. Light
to gentle trades along with slight to moderate seas are present
elsewhere.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the southeastern
part of the basin, and also from 10N to 14N west of 82W to
inland Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure ridge axis oriented along 27N-28N and the Colombian low
will support NE winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of
Colombia early tonight. Otherwise, strong to near-gale force
trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the
central Caribbean into early Mon, before contracting to south of
15N. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each this
evening and on Sun evening in the Windward Passage.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weak trough is analyzed from near 31N32W to 28N35W. Another
weak trough is from 31N37W to 26N40W. Isolated weak showers are
seen north of 25N between 30W and 50W. Otherwise, broad high
pressure, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 29N56W,
covers the central Atlantic and reaches westward to near 76W. The
related gradient is generally allowing for moderate to fresh
trades south of about 25N and west of 46W, and from 15N to 24N
east of 35W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over these waters, except for
higher seas of 5 to 7 ft from 08N to 20N between 54W and the
Lesser Antilles. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are
north of 20N and east of 20W to along the coast of Africa.
Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Latest satellite scatterometer
data passes reveal south to southwest winds of 10 to 15 kt south
of the monsoon trough, and east to southeast winds of 10 to 15
kt south of the ITCZ. Seas are mostly 4 to 6 ft over these
waters. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are
elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the western periphery of the
Atlantic high pressure will gradually weaken and drift northward
through the rest of the weekend as a broad surface trough forms
E of 50W. This trough will shift westward and reach 65W by Wed.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail south of 24N, with gentle
winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected during the
evenings this weekend N of Hispaniola and in the Windward
Passage.
$$
Aguirre
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sun, 19 Jul 2026 00:14:51 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 190014
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Jul 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the
western Atlantic high pressure ridge north of the basin roughly
along 27N-28N and the Colombian low will continue to support
pulsing northeast to east winds to gale force over the waters
north of Colombia tonight. Otherwise, strong to near-gale force
trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the
central Caribbean into early Mon before becoming confined to
south of 15N. Rough to very rough seas, in the 12 to 14 ft range,
will develop during the times of peak winds.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (Invest AL91): Satellite
images and surface observations indicate that a broad surface low is
located over the eastern Gulf of America. Within this area of broad
low pressure, a 1015 mb low is analyzed over the eastern Gulf near
27N84.5W. Presently, winds are light. Satellite imagery shows
disorganized moderate to isolated strong convection from 26N to 28N
between 85W and 88W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are elsewhere from 23N to 29N east of 90W. This activity may produce
gusty winds, frequent lightning and rough seas. Mariners should
exercise caution across this area. Gradual development of this
system is possible, and it could become a tropical depression while
it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward during the next few
days. Interests along the Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia should monitor the progress of this system as
it is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of that region during
the next several days. This system has a medium chance for tropical
cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the
latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane
Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W from
03N to 20N moving westward near 15 kt. Isolated showers are
near axis from 04N to 10N and from 15N to 20N.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W south
of 18N to inland South America. It is moving westward around
20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between
52W and 58W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 20N16W, and
continues southwestward to 16N23W and to 07N42W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ to 07N45W and to 07N52W. Scattered
moderate convection is south of the trough from 09N to 13N
between 19W-24W. A 1012 low is near 12N20W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a broad
low pressure area over the eastern section of the Gulf that has a
medium chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48
hours.
Elsewhere, a 1021 mb high center that is located south-southwest of
Louisiana continues to basically control the wind regime throughout
the basin generally maintaining gentle to moderate winds. Slight to
moderate seas pretty much prevail.
For the forecast, the low pressure will slowly move northward
or north-northwestward during the next few days bringing heavy
rain to the Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and southwestern
Georgia. There is a medium chance of tropical formation with this
system through the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will
dominate, producing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas through early next week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A Gale Warning remains in effect for the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features
section for more details. Winds are expected to peak to gale force
tonight.
The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressure to its south is generally sustaining
strong to near gale-force trades over the central Caribbean, with
the strongest winds of near gale force noted offshore Colombia
per latest satellite scatterometer data passes. Latest satellite
altimeter data passes indicate rough to very rough seas to 14 ft
over these same waters. Meanwhile, the latest satellite
scatterometer data passes show mostly fresh trades south of about
18N and east of 82W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft over these waters. Light
to gentle trades along with slight to moderate seas are present
elsewhere.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the southeastern
part of the basin, and also from 10N to 14N west of 82W to
inland Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure ridge axis oriented along 27N-28N and the Colombian low
will support NE winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of
Colombia early tonight. Otherwise, strong to near-gale force
trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the
central Caribbean into early Mon, before contracting to south of
15N. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each this
evening and on Sun evening in the Windward Passage.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weak trough is analyzed from near 31N32W to 28N35W. Another
weak trough is from 31N37W to 26N40W. Isolated weak showers are
seen north of 25N between 30W and 50W. Otherwise, broad high
pressure, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 29N56W,
covers the central Atlantic and reaches westward to near 76W. The
related gradient is generally allowing for moderate to fresh
trades south of about 25N and west of 46W, and from 15N to 24N
east of 35W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over these waters, except for
higher seas of 5 to 7 ft from 08N to 20N between 54W and the
Lesser Antilles. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are
north of 20N and east of 20W to along the coast of Africa.
Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Latest satellite scatterometer
data passes reveal south to southwest winds of 10 to 15 kt south
of the monsoon trough, and east to southeast winds of 10 to 15
kt south of the ITCZ. Seas are mostly 4 to 6 ft over these
waters. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are
elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the western periphery of the
Atlantic high pressure will gradually weaken and drift northward
through the rest of the weekend as a broad surface trough forms
E of 50W. This trough will shift westward and reach 65W by Wed.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail south of 24N, with gentle
winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected during the
evenings this weekend N of Hispaniola and in the Windward
Passage.
$$
Aguirre
Active Tropical Systems
- Mon, 20 Jul 2026 11:29:16 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 19 Jul 2026 00:17:10 GMT - Sat, 18 Jul 2026 23:29:16 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 182329
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad
surface low is located over the eastern Gulf of America. The
associated winds are currently light, and the shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. However, gradual
development of this system is possible, and it could become a
tropical depression while it moves slowly northward or
north-northwestward during the next few days. Interests along the
Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia
should monitor the progress of this system as it is expected to
bring heavy rain to portions of that region during the next several
days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system on Sunday, if needed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sat, 18 Jul 2026 16:24:46 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 181624
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1225 PM EDT SAT 18 JULY 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JULY 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-048 CORRECTION
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHEAST GULF OF AMERICA - AL91)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 19/1800Z A. 20/0600Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 02AAA SURVEY
C. 19/1700Z C. 20/0500Z
D. 28.5N 85.0W D. 29.1N 85.1W
E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2230Z E. 20/0530Z TO 20/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST G. SYSTEM SURVEY
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION
FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
A. 20/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0302A CYCLONE
C. 20/1030Z
D. 29.3N 85.2W
E. 20/1100Z TO 20/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON AL91 IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf