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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Mon, 31 Aug 2026 10:09:20 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 311009
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0955 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Northern Gulf of America (AL97): An area of low pressure (Invest
AL97) is near 27N90W over the northern Gulf of America, located
more than 85 nm south of the coast of southern Louisiana. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is present north of 26N and
between 88W and 92W. Earlier satellite wind data indicated that
the circulation has not become much better defined from yesterday
while producing 25 to 30 kt winds. Regardless, additional development
is anticipated as the low moves slowly west-northwestward, and a
short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to
form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern
Louisiana coasts by tonight or Tuesday morning. Interests along
the southwest Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts should monitor the
progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings
could be required for portions of the area later today. Regardless
of development, this system is expected to bring locally heavy
rainfall to portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana
coasts during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
later this morning. This system has a high chance of tropical
cyclone formation through 7 days.
Please, refer to the HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the
trough axis.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is present from 08N to 16N and between 37W and 49W.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is observed
over the ocean.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring south in eastern Honduras and
Nicaragua and nearby waters.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N37W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N37W to 10N44W and then from 10N46W to 09N61W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from
04N to 14N and east of 40W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Invest AL97 over the north-central Gulf waters.
Away from the disturbance in the north-central Gulf, a weak high
pressure dominates the basin supporting moderate or weaker winds
and slight to locally moderate seas.
For the forecast, an area of low pressure...Invest AL97...located
near 27N90W over the northern Gulf waters is producing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms. The system has a high chance
of tropical development over the next couple of days as it moves
toward the NW Gulf coast. Regardless, is expected to bring locally
heavy rainfall to portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern
Louisiana coasts during the next several days. Near gale-force
winds and rough seas are forecast to develop in the nearshore
waters this afternoon into tonight. Conditions will improve Tue.
Away from this system, weak high pressure will prevail allowing
for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough is moving across eastern Hispaniola producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with some storms
extending eastward to the Leeward Islands. Strong storms are also
noted in the SW Caribbean off Panama and Colombia. The pressure
gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the islands and
lower pressures in the deep tropics has slacken a bit as the
remnants of Dolly pass over the Greater Antilles. Moderate to
locally strong easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are occurring in
the central and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage.
Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, a surface trough located across eastern Hispaniola is
producing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms, along with strong
winds and rough seas. This trough will move WNW and continue to
impact Hispaniola today, then Cuba and the Bahamas Tue into Wed.
Localized heavy rainfall is possible, especially in the
mountainousterrain. Elsewhere across the basin, the pressure
gradient between the subtropical ridge and Colombian low will
continue to force fresh to locally strong easterly trades and
moderate to locally rough seas over the central and eastern
Caribbean through the week, with moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevailing for the remainder of the
waters.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Divergence aloft and plenty of moisture continue to produce
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms between Bermuda and
the NW Bahamas and Florida. Farther south, a surface trough moving
across eastern Hispaniola is generating scattered showers and some
thunderstorms over the waters south of 24N and between the SE
Bahamas and 65W. Moderate to locally strong SE winds and rough
seas are occurring south of 26N and between 62W and the Bahamas.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the
north-central Atlantic due to an upper level low in the area. The
rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad
subtropical ridge centered near 33N35W. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas are found across much of the
basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough
located across eastern Hispaniola is producing a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms, along with strong winds and rough seas.
This trough will move WNW and continue to impact Hispaniola today,
then Cuba and the Bahamas Tue into Wed, bringing similar
conditions to waters S of 24N. Strong upper-level winds are
expected to prevent tropical development of this system over the
next day or two while it moves quickly westward to west-
northwestward at 20 to 25 mph. Conditions could become more
conducive for redevelopment by the middle of the week as the
system reaches the southern Bahamas or Florida Straits. The
disturbance has a low chance of formation over the next 7 days.
Elsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a deep- layer trough
will aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W through Tue. To the
east, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.
$$
Delgado
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Mon, 31 Aug 2026 10:09:20 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 311009
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0955 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Northern Gulf of America (AL97): An area of low pressure (Invest
AL97) is near 27N90W over the northern Gulf of America, located
more than 85 nm south of the coast of southern Louisiana. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is present north of 26N and
between 88W and 92W. Earlier satellite wind data indicated that
the circulation has not become much better defined from yesterday
while producing 25 to 30 kt winds. Regardless, additional development
is anticipated as the low moves slowly west-northwestward, and a
short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to
form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern
Louisiana coasts by tonight or Tuesday morning. Interests along
the southwest Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts should monitor the
progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings
could be required for portions of the area later today. Regardless
of development, this system is expected to bring locally heavy
rainfall to portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana
coasts during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
later this morning. This system has a high chance of tropical
cyclone formation through 7 days.
Please, refer to the HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the
trough axis.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is present from 08N to 16N and between 37W and 49W.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is observed
over the ocean.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring south in eastern Honduras and
Nicaragua and nearby waters.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N37W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N37W to 10N44W and then from 10N46W to 09N61W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from
04N to 14N and east of 40W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Invest AL97 over the north-central Gulf waters.
Away from the disturbance in the north-central Gulf, a weak high
pressure dominates the basin supporting moderate or weaker winds
and slight to locally moderate seas.
For the forecast, an area of low pressure...Invest AL97...located
near 27N90W over the northern Gulf waters is producing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms. The system has a high chance
of tropical development over the next couple of days as it moves
toward the NW Gulf coast. Regardless, is expected to bring locally
heavy rainfall to portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern
Louisiana coasts during the next several days. Near gale-force
winds and rough seas are forecast to develop in the nearshore
waters this afternoon into tonight. Conditions will improve Tue.
Away from this system, weak high pressure will prevail allowing
for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough is moving across eastern Hispaniola producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with some storms
extending eastward to the Leeward Islands. Strong storms are also
noted in the SW Caribbean off Panama and Colombia. The pressure
gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the islands and
lower pressures in the deep tropics has slacken a bit as the
remnants of Dolly pass over the Greater Antilles. Moderate to
locally strong easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are occurring in
the central and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage.
Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, a surface trough located across eastern Hispaniola is
producing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms, along with strong
winds and rough seas. This trough will move WNW and continue to
impact Hispaniola today, then Cuba and the Bahamas Tue into Wed.
Localized heavy rainfall is possible, especially in the
mountainousterrain. Elsewhere across the basin, the pressure
gradient between the subtropical ridge and Colombian low will
continue to force fresh to locally strong easterly trades and
moderate to locally rough seas over the central and eastern
Caribbean through the week, with moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevailing for the remainder of the
waters.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Divergence aloft and plenty of moisture continue to produce
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms between Bermuda and
the NW Bahamas and Florida. Farther south, a surface trough moving
across eastern Hispaniola is generating scattered showers and some
thunderstorms over the waters south of 24N and between the SE
Bahamas and 65W. Moderate to locally strong SE winds and rough
seas are occurring south of 26N and between 62W and the Bahamas.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the
north-central Atlantic due to an upper level low in the area. The
rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad
subtropical ridge centered near 33N35W. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas are found across much of the
basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough
located across eastern Hispaniola is producing a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms, along with strong winds and rough seas.
This trough will move WNW and continue to impact Hispaniola today,
then Cuba and the Bahamas Tue into Wed, bringing similar
conditions to waters S of 24N. Strong upper-level winds are
expected to prevent tropical development of this system over the
next day or two while it moves quickly westward to west-
northwestward at 20 to 25 mph. Conditions could become more
conducive for redevelopment by the middle of the week as the
system reaches the southern Bahamas or Florida Straits. The
disturbance has a low chance of formation over the next 7 days.
Elsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a deep- layer trough
will aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W through Tue. To the
east, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.
$$
Delgado
Active Tropical Systems
- Tue, 01 Sep 2026 23:43:58 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 31 Aug 2026 12:10:07 GMT - Mon, 31 Aug 2026 11:43:58 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
423
ABNT20 KNHC 311143
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northern Gulf of America (AL97):
An area of low pressure located a little more than 100 miles south
of the coast of southern Louisiana continues to produce a small but
concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms with some signs of
organization. Additional development is expected as the low moves
slowly west-northwestward, and a short-lived tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form before the system reaches the Upper
Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts on Tuesday.
Interests along the southwestern Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts
should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm
watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later
today. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring
locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Upper Texas and
southwestern Louisiana coasts during the next couple of days. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system this morning. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Near Hispaniola (Remnants of Dolly):
A surface trough of low pressure (the remnants of Tropical Storm
Dolly) is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms
that extends from near Hispaniola eastward to the northern Leeward
Islands. Redevelopment, if any, would be slow to occur during the
next few days as the system encounters generally unfavorable
upper-level winds while moving quickly west-northwestward at 20 to
25 mph. Regardless, the system could bring locally heavy rains and
gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:27:26 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 301627
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT SUN 30 AUGUST 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z TO 01/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-091 CORRECTION
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA - AL97)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72 (CORRECTED)
A. 31/1300Z A. 31/2330Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 02AAA SURVEY
C. 31/1200Z C. 31/2230Z
D. 28.3N 91.4W D. 28.6N 92.5W
E. 31/1230Z TO 21/1730Z E. 31/2300Z TO 01/0400Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST G. SYSTEM SURVEY
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION
FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
A. 01/1130Z
B. AFXXX 03AAA SURVEY
C. 01/1015Z
D. 29.2N 93.7W
E. 01/1100Z TO 01/1600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. SYSTEM SURVEY
H. WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON SUSPECT AREA AL97 AT 01/1730Z IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST INTO THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 21.5N 74.5W FOR 01/1800Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM LOWELL
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. 01/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0112E LOWELL
C. 31/1700Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE
MISSION AROUND LOWELL FOR 02/1200Z, DEPARTING PHJR TENTATIVELY
AT 02/0400Z.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK:
A. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON LOWELL AT 02/1730Z.
B. NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO LOWELL FOR 03/0000Z,
DEPARTING PHJR AT 02/2000Z.
C. NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND LOWELL FOR
03/1200Z, DEPARTING PHJR TENTATIVELY AT 03/0400Z.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf