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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Thu, 11 Jun 2026 20:40:52 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 112040
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jun 12 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize:
Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central
America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The
combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper
low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a
tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant
deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential
for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat.
Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern section
of the Yucatan Peninsula and over eastern Belize. The heaviest
rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period,
primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican
state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is
possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as
well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local
meteorological agencies for further guidance.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 22W S of 15N,
moving westward near 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has is axis near 51W S of 15N,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are seen within
60 nm either side of the axis from 04N to 07N.
The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 63W S of
16N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted S of 15N between 60W and 65W.
Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 68W,
moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is
occurring at the present time with this wave.
A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan peninsula. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted S of 24N between 82W and
91W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally
conducive for development before the system moves inland over
eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near
13N17W and extends southwestward to 06N28W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ to 04N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 14N between 11W and 26W, and from 04N to 08N between 30W
and 42W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Weak Atlantic ridging stretches westward from the western
Atlantic to just inland the northern Gulf coast. Low pressure
prevails across Mexico. The pressure gradient between these
features is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds W of 90W,
as well as S of 21N and E of 90W. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range
over these waters. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft,
prevail over the NE Gulf.
For the forecast, high pressure is expected to develop over the
northeastern Gulf on Fri, then persist through Tue. Farther south,
a broad trough of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula should
gradually move into the the Bay of Campeche tonight and Fri. The
low pressure will then move northwestward toward the coast of
Tamaulipas state in northeast Mexico through Sat night. The
gradient between these features will support a plume of fresh to
strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas from the northwestern
Yucatan Peninsula to the coast of Texas through at least Sat
night. The trough will be accompanied by numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the western Gulf. Winds and seas will
diminish early next week after the low pressure moves inland and
weakens.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and
troughing over the Yucatan peninsula associated with a tropical
wave is supporting fresh to strong winds over the NW Caribbean.
Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over these waters. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along Colombia and
Venezuela is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south
central Caribbean. Seas of 5-8 ft prevail over this area. Moderate
to locally fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, a strong ridge across the western Atlantic will
support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate
to rough seas across the central Caribbean into early next week,
with the highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh
to strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the
northwestern Caribbean west of 85W, including the Gulf of
Honduras through Sat night, between the ridge and low pressure
over northern Central America and southern Mexico.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from 31N44W to a 1016 mb low centered
near 30N62W. Isolated convection is in the vicinity of these
features. Gentle to moderate winds are ahead of the front, mainly
N of 28N between 40W and 45W. High pressure prevails elsewhere
over the waters N of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds are found S of
20N as well as N of 20N and E of 30W. Mainly light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas are in
the 3-4 ft range W of 60W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the low will open up into a trough,
while the front will weaken through Fri. On Sat, a ridge will
extend westward along roughly 29N and remain in place through
early next week. This pattern will support gentle to moderate
breezes across the western Atlantic, except moderate to fresh
winds off Hispaniola starting Fri night.
$$
AL
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Thu, 11 Jun 2026 20:40:52 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 112040
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jun 12 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize:
Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central
America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The
combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper
low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a
tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant
deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential
for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat.
Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern section
of the Yucatan Peninsula and over eastern Belize. The heaviest
rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period,
primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican
state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is
possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as
well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local
meteorological agencies for further guidance.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 22W S of 15N,
moving westward near 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has is axis near 51W S of 15N,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are seen within
60 nm either side of the axis from 04N to 07N.
The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 63W S of
16N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted S of 15N between 60W and 65W.
Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 68W,
moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is
occurring at the present time with this wave.
A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan peninsula. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted S of 24N between 82W and
91W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally
conducive for development before the system moves inland over
eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near
13N17W and extends southwestward to 06N28W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ to 04N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 14N between 11W and 26W, and from 04N to 08N between 30W
and 42W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Weak Atlantic ridging stretches westward from the western
Atlantic to just inland the northern Gulf coast. Low pressure
prevails across Mexico. The pressure gradient between these
features is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds W of 90W,
as well as S of 21N and E of 90W. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range
over these waters. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft,
prevail over the NE Gulf.
For the forecast, high pressure is expected to develop over the
northeastern Gulf on Fri, then persist through Tue. Farther south,
a broad trough of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula should
gradually move into the the Bay of Campeche tonight and Fri. The
low pressure will then move northwestward toward the coast of
Tamaulipas state in northeast Mexico through Sat night. The
gradient between these features will support a plume of fresh to
strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas from the northwestern
Yucatan Peninsula to the coast of Texas through at least Sat
night. The trough will be accompanied by numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the western Gulf. Winds and seas will
diminish early next week after the low pressure moves inland and
weakens.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and
troughing over the Yucatan peninsula associated with a tropical
wave is supporting fresh to strong winds over the NW Caribbean.
Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over these waters. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along Colombia and
Venezuela is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south
central Caribbean. Seas of 5-8 ft prevail over this area. Moderate
to locally fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, a strong ridge across the western Atlantic will
support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate
to rough seas across the central Caribbean into early next week,
with the highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh
to strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the
northwestern Caribbean west of 85W, including the Gulf of
Honduras through Sat night, between the ridge and low pressure
over northern Central America and southern Mexico.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from 31N44W to a 1016 mb low centered
near 30N62W. Isolated convection is in the vicinity of these
features. Gentle to moderate winds are ahead of the front, mainly
N of 28N between 40W and 45W. High pressure prevails elsewhere
over the waters N of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds are found S of
20N as well as N of 20N and E of 30W. Mainly light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas are in
the 3-4 ft range W of 60W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the low will open up into a trough,
while the front will weaken through Fri. On Sat, a ridge will
extend westward along roughly 29N and remain in place through
early next week. This pattern will support gentle to moderate
breezes across the western Atlantic, except moderate to fresh
winds off Hispaniola starting Fri night.
$$
AL
Active Tropical Systems
- Sat, 13 Jun 2026 05:25:54 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 11 Jun 2026 22:47:24 GMT - Thu, 11 Jun 2026 17:25:54 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 111725
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Bay of Campeche:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the Bay of
Campeche on Friday from a westward-moving tropical wave currently
located over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for
development before the system moves inland over eastern Mexico late
Saturday or Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Thu, 11 Jun 2026 13:35:48 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 111335
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0935 AM EDT THU 11 JUNE 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z JUNE 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-011
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf