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2026 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models

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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2026 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 7 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Thu, 16 Jul 2026 05:35:49 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 160535
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Thu Jul 16 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0525 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURE...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high
    pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low will support
    fresh to strong NE-E winds in the south-central Caribbean during
    the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force across the
    waters N of Colombia each night through Sat night. A recent
    scatterometer satellite pass showed winds to 34 kt off NW
    Colombia. Rough to very rough seas will prevail with these winds.

    Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
    issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned along 20W,
    south of 16N based on scatterometer satellite data from a few
    hours ago. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered
    moderate to strong convection is present from 05N to 15N and east
    of 28W and remain disorganized. Some slow development is possible
    during the next couple of days while the system moves generally
    west-northwestward at about 10 mph. By this weekend, the system is
    forecast to move into a less conducive environment, and further
    development is not expected. The disturbance has a low chance of
    development over the next 7 days.

    A tropical wave is E of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis along
    21W and south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. A 1014 mb
    low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 10N. An area of
    moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within about 120
    nm NW quadrant of the low center. The most recent scatterometer
    data indicate the circulation of the low as well as and area of
    fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas to the south
    of the low center affecting the waters N of 05N between 16W and
    21W. The convective activity associated with this tropical wave
    have become a little better organized during the past 24 hours.
    Some additional slow development is possible over the next couple
    of days as the system moves generally west- northwestward. After
    that, the system is expected to move into an environment that is
    not conducive for additional development by the weekend.

    Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W, south of
    18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave
    axis.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to a 1013 mb low
    pres near 12N20W to 09N32W. The ITCZ extends from 09N32W to
    05N52W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
    wave along 21N, no significant convection is evident.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A 1020 mb high pressure system positioned over the northern Gulf
    supports moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds across much of the
    western and SE Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft in these waters. In the rest
    of the basin, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. A few
    showers are present north of Yucatan and in the eastern Bay of
    Campeche, while drier conditions are noted in the remainder of the
    Gulf.

    For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore the
    Yucatan Peninsula each night. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight
    to locally moderate seas, will prevail elsewhere.

    Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form this
    weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual
    development of this system is possible while it moves slowly
    northeastward over the northeastern Gulf and near the coast of the
    southeastern United States early next week.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean offshore
    of Colombia. Please, refer to the Special Features section for
    more details.

    The Atlantic subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea
    forces strong to gale easterly trade winds across the central
    Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia and in
    the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough to very rough seas are found in
    these waters. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and moderate seas
    are noted in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile,
    moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present in
    the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
    slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

    A diffluent pattern aloft combined with abundant tropical moisture
    is generating a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the
    NW Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula, particularly in the Gulf
    of Honduras. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are
    likely with this convective activity.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
    the basin and the Colombian low will support pulsing NE winds to
    gale-force across the waters N of Colombia each night through Sat
    night. Otherwise, strong to near-gale trade winds and rough seas
    will prevail across the central Caribbean into early next week.
    East winds will pulse fresh to strong each evening in the Gulf of
    Honduras and Windward Passage.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A weak surface trough over the the SW North Atlantic is producing
    a few showers west of 72W and north of 28N. The tropical Atlantic is
    under the influence of broad high pressure. Moderate to fresh
    easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of the SE
    Bahamas and north of Haiti and eastern Cuba. Mainly moderate
    easterly winds and moderate seas are found south of 22N and
    between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Meanwhile, in the far
    eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong and seas of 5-8 ft are
    noted north of the monsoon trough and east of 23W. Fresh to
    locally strong SW winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident south of
    the monsoon trough and east of 23W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
    winds and moderate seas prevail.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain
    dominant through the forecast period. The weather pattern will
    support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with gentle winds
    to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night
    offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.

    $$
    Delgado
Tropical Weather Discussion
  • Thu, 16 Jul 2026 05:35:49 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 160535
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Thu Jul 16 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0525 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURE...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high
    pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low will support
    fresh to strong NE-E winds in the south-central Caribbean during
    the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force across the
    waters N of Colombia each night through Sat night. A recent
    scatterometer satellite pass showed winds to 34 kt off NW
    Colombia. Rough to very rough seas will prevail with these winds.

    Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
    issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned along 20W,
    south of 16N based on scatterometer satellite data from a few
    hours ago. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered
    moderate to strong convection is present from 05N to 15N and east
    of 28W and remain disorganized. Some slow development is possible
    during the next couple of days while the system moves generally
    west-northwestward at about 10 mph. By this weekend, the system is
    forecast to move into a less conducive environment, and further
    development is not expected. The disturbance has a low chance of
    development over the next 7 days.

    A tropical wave is E of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis along
    21W and south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. A 1014 mb
    low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 10N. An area of
    moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within about 120
    nm NW quadrant of the low center. The most recent scatterometer
    data indicate the circulation of the low as well as and area of
    fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas to the south
    of the low center affecting the waters N of 05N between 16W and
    21W. The convective activity associated with this tropical wave
    have become a little better organized during the past 24 hours.
    Some additional slow development is possible over the next couple
    of days as the system moves generally west- northwestward. After
    that, the system is expected to move into an environment that is
    not conducive for additional development by the weekend.

    Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W, south of
    18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave
    axis.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to a 1013 mb low
    pres near 12N20W to 09N32W. The ITCZ extends from 09N32W to
    05N52W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
    wave along 21N, no significant convection is evident.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A 1020 mb high pressure system positioned over the northern Gulf
    supports moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds across much of the
    western and SE Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft in these waters. In the rest
    of the basin, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. A few
    showers are present north of Yucatan and in the eastern Bay of
    Campeche, while drier conditions are noted in the remainder of the
    Gulf.

    For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore the
    Yucatan Peninsula each night. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight
    to locally moderate seas, will prevail elsewhere.

    Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form this
    weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual
    development of this system is possible while it moves slowly
    northeastward over the northeastern Gulf and near the coast of the
    southeastern United States early next week.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean offshore
    of Colombia. Please, refer to the Special Features section for
    more details.

    The Atlantic subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea
    forces strong to gale easterly trade winds across the central
    Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia and in
    the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough to very rough seas are found in
    these waters. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and moderate seas
    are noted in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile,
    moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present in
    the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
    slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

    A diffluent pattern aloft combined with abundant tropical moisture
    is generating a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the
    NW Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula, particularly in the Gulf
    of Honduras. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are
    likely with this convective activity.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
    the basin and the Colombian low will support pulsing NE winds to
    gale-force across the waters N of Colombia each night through Sat
    night. Otherwise, strong to near-gale trade winds and rough seas
    will prevail across the central Caribbean into early next week.
    East winds will pulse fresh to strong each evening in the Gulf of
    Honduras and Windward Passage.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A weak surface trough over the the SW North Atlantic is producing
    a few showers west of 72W and north of 28N. The tropical Atlantic is
    under the influence of broad high pressure. Moderate to fresh
    easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of the SE
    Bahamas and north of Haiti and eastern Cuba. Mainly moderate
    easterly winds and moderate seas are found south of 22N and
    between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Meanwhile, in the far
    eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong and seas of 5-8 ft are
    noted north of the monsoon trough and east of 23W. Fresh to
    locally strong SW winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident south of
    the monsoon trough and east of 23W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
    winds and moderate seas prevail.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain
    dominant through the forecast period. The weather pattern will
    support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with gentle winds
    to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night
    offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.

    $$
    Delgado
Active Tropical Systems
  • Fri, 17 Jul 2026 17:16:06 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
    No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 16 Jul 2026 08:49:28 GMT
  • Thu, 16 Jul 2026 05:16:06 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 160515
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

    Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
    Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
    southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands remain disorganized. Some slow
    development is possible during the next couple of days while the
    system moves generally west-northwestward at about 10 mph. By this
    weekend, the system is forecast to move into a less conducive
    environment, and further development is not expected.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

    Northeastern Gulf of America and Offshore of the Southeastern U.S.:
    An area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend over the
    northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual development of this
    system is possible while it moves slowly northeastward over the
    northeastern Gulf and near the coast of the southeastern United
    States early next week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Gibbs
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
  • Wed, 15 Jul 2026 13:14:52 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
    000
    NOUS42 KNHC 151314
    REPRPD
    WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
    CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
    0915 AM EDT WED 15 JULY 2026
    SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
    VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z JULY 2026
    TCPOD NUMBER.....26-045

    I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    $$
    SEF

    NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
  • Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf
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