2026 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models

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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2026 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 7 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Fri, 15 May 2026 16:15:27 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    074
    AXNT20 KNHC 151615
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1815 UTC Fri May 15 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1600 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W, south of 13N,
    moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted
    across the northern half of the wave.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W, south of 13N,
    moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted across
    the southern half of the wave.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W then curves
    southwestward to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 00N38W to 02N30W
    to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 07N
    and E of 27W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    Continental high pressure of 1017 mb is centered S of Louisiana
    and dominates the basin. Winds are mainly light to gentle and
    anticyclonic, but moderate S winds are present in the NW Gulf.
    Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the NE basin and 2 to 4 ft in the SW. Dry
    air is in place and no convection is occurring.

    For the forecast, high pressure will dominate into early next
    week. As low pressure deepens over Texas, the pressure gradient
    will tighten and SE winds will increase to moderate to fresh over
    the western Gulf this weekend, then continue through early next
    week.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A weakening stationary front is analyzed in the NW Caribbean from
    western Cuba to near Cozumel. The only remaining convection in
    the basin is within 90 nm of the coast of Panama, where the
    Eastern Pacific monsoon trough is aiding in thunderstorm
    development. The pressure gradient between high pressure centered
    E of Bermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is leading to
    strong E winds in the central and southern Caribbean, highest
    offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough seas are
    also present where the strong winds are ongoing. For the remainder
    of the basin, aside from the NW, moderate to fresh trades and
    moderate seas prevail. In the NW basin, mainly gentle E winds and
    2 to 4 ft seas are present.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support
    fresh to near gale trades across the central Caribbean, with the
    strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras.
    Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the
    forecast waters, pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at
    night Sat through Tue. Large W swell resulting in rough seas will
    impact the tropical N Atlantic waters into Mon, then begin to
    subside.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A weakening stationary front extends from W of Bermuda to the
    Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection is N of 24N, E of
    the front to 62W. Winds in this zone of convection are fresh to
    strong out of the SW, and seas are rough. Behind this front, the
    tail end of a cold front extends from 31N75W to 28N81W. Moderate
    to fresh winds are noted W of the front. Elsewhere N of 20N,
    mainly moderate E winds and moderate seas dominate. To the S of
    20N, fresh trades and rough seas prevail.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will gradually
    dissipate into the weekend. Fresh to strong SW winds NE of the
    boundary N of 28N will lift N of the region later today, allowing
    rough seas to diminish. Thereafter, mainly tranquil marine
    conditions with moderate to strong easterly winds will prevail
    through early next week.

    $$
    ERA
Tropical Weather Discussion
  • Fri, 15 May 2026 16:15:27 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    074
    AXNT20 KNHC 151615
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1815 UTC Fri May 15 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1600 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W, south of 13N,
    moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted
    across the northern half of the wave.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W, south of 13N,
    moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted across
    the southern half of the wave.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W then curves
    southwestward to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 00N38W to 02N30W
    to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 07N
    and E of 27W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    Continental high pressure of 1017 mb is centered S of Louisiana
    and dominates the basin. Winds are mainly light to gentle and
    anticyclonic, but moderate S winds are present in the NW Gulf.
    Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the NE basin and 2 to 4 ft in the SW. Dry
    air is in place and no convection is occurring.

    For the forecast, high pressure will dominate into early next
    week. As low pressure deepens over Texas, the pressure gradient
    will tighten and SE winds will increase to moderate to fresh over
    the western Gulf this weekend, then continue through early next
    week.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A weakening stationary front is analyzed in the NW Caribbean from
    western Cuba to near Cozumel. The only remaining convection in
    the basin is within 90 nm of the coast of Panama, where the
    Eastern Pacific monsoon trough is aiding in thunderstorm
    development. The pressure gradient between high pressure centered
    E of Bermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is leading to
    strong E winds in the central and southern Caribbean, highest
    offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough seas are
    also present where the strong winds are ongoing. For the remainder
    of the basin, aside from the NW, moderate to fresh trades and
    moderate seas prevail. In the NW basin, mainly gentle E winds and
    2 to 4 ft seas are present.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support
    fresh to near gale trades across the central Caribbean, with the
    strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras.
    Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the
    forecast waters, pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at
    night Sat through Tue. Large W swell resulting in rough seas will
    impact the tropical N Atlantic waters into Mon, then begin to
    subside.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A weakening stationary front extends from W of Bermuda to the
    Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection is N of 24N, E of
    the front to 62W. Winds in this zone of convection are fresh to
    strong out of the SW, and seas are rough. Behind this front, the
    tail end of a cold front extends from 31N75W to 28N81W. Moderate
    to fresh winds are noted W of the front. Elsewhere N of 20N,
    mainly moderate E winds and moderate seas dominate. To the S of
    20N, fresh trades and rough seas prevail.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will gradually
    dissipate into the weekend. Fresh to strong SW winds NE of the
    boundary N of 28N will lift N of the region later today, allowing
    rough seas to diminish. Thereafter, mainly tranquil marine
    conditions with moderate to strong easterly winds will prevail
    through early next week.

    $$
    ERA
Active Tropical Systems
  • Sun, 17 May 2026 05:14:49 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
    No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 15 May 2026 17:18:02 GMT
  • Fri, 15 May 2026 17:14:49 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 151714
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

    &&
    Today, May 15, marks the first day of the routine issuance of the
    Atlantic basin Tropical Weather Outlook in 2026. This product
    describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their
    potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next seven
    days. The Tropical Weather Outlook is issued from May 15 through
    November 30 each year. The issuance times of this product are 2 AM,
    8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After the change to standard time in
    November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

    A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
    updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
    of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
    will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
    Tropical Weather Outlooks.

    A graphical version of the Tropical Weather Outlook is available on
    the web at: https://www.hurricanes.gov.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
  • Tue, 31 Mar 2026 12:59:51 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
    000
    NOUS42 KNHC 311259
    REPRPD
    WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
    CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
    0900 AM EDT TUE 31 MARCH 2026
    SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
    VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z APRIL 2026
    WSPOD NUMBER.....25-121

    I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    NOTE: THIS IS THE LAST WSPOD OF THE SEASON UNLESS CONDITIONS
    DICTATE OTHERWISE.

    $$
    SEF

    NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
  • Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf
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