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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Fri, 17 Jul 2026 17:29:29 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 171729
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jul 17 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1651 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between central
Atlantic high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low
will support fresh to strong NE-E winds in the south-central
Caribbean during the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-
force across the waters N of Colombia each night through Sat
night. Rough to very rough seas 12 to 14 ft will develop during
the times of peak winds.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A well defined eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along
22.5W, south of 18N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Recent satellite
imagery and scatterometer data suggest a 1012 mb surface low is
located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands near 13N22W. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 09.5N to 14.5N between 19W
and 25W. Significant development of this system is not expected before
environmental conditions become even less favorable for development
over the weekend, while it moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15
mph. The disturbance has a low chance of development over the
next 7 days.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43.5W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is depicted
with this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N17W and continues
southwestward to a 1012 mb low pressure near 13N22W to 09N42W.
The ITCZ extends from 09N47W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted from 07N to 09N between 26W and 34W.
Similar convection is depicted from 07N to 10N between 49.5W and
58W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1021 mb high pressure is centered southeast and offshore of the
mouth of the Mississippi River, and is forcing moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds over the Bay of Campeche as shown by recent
satellite scatterometer data. Seas area 3 to 6 ft across this
area. Moderate E-SE winds are present in the remainder of the
western waters, where seas are 2-5 ft. North and near the high,
gentle to moderate NW winds and 2 to 3 ft seas prevail.
Elsewhere, slight to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. Upper
level low pressure across the east Gulf is supporting a cluster
of moderate to strong convection along the W coast of Florida from
25N to 28N and west of 85.5W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are also across the Mexican coastal waters from Cabo
Rojo to offshore of Veracruz.
For the forecast, high pressure will meander across the northern
Gulf through early Mon. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse
offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and night. Gentle to
moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, will prevail
elsewhere. Upper level low pressure across the eastern Gulf will
support thunderstorms across portions of the NE Gulf through Sun.
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form this
weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual
development of this system is possible while it meanders over the
northeastern Gulf, northern Florida, or the extreme western
Atlantic near northeastern Florida early next week. The chance of
formation through the next 7 days is low.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean near
the coast of Colombia. Seas are estimated at 10 to 14 ft in the
area presently. Please refer to the Special Features section for
more details.
The Atlantic subtropical ridge persists north of the Caribbean
Sea, forcing strong to near-gale easterly trade winds across the
central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough to very rough seas are found
in these waters. Fresh NE winds and moderate seas are noted in
the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present in the eastern
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure ridge oriented along 27N and the Colombian low will
support NE winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of
Colombia tonight and Sat night. Otherwise, strong to near- gale
force trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of
the central Caribbean into early Mon before contracting to south
of 15N through Tue. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong
each evening in the Windward Passage.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An extensive subtropical ridge persists across the tropical
Atlantic north of 24N, anchored by 1025 mb centered near 28N49W
and extends westward to the Bahamas. Saharan dust and mid-
latitude dry air continue to dominate the basin, suppressing the
development of showers and thunderstorms. Fresh easterly trade
winds and moderate seas are occurring off the SE Bahamas, Haiti
and eastern Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas are prevalent south of 24N and west of 30W to the
Lesser Antilles. Scattered clusters of moderate convection are
noted from offshore of Cape Canaveral northeastward toward
Bermuda.
Meanwhile, in the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong
winds and seas of 5-7 ft are noted north of the monsoon trough
and east of 32W. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and seas of 5-8
ft are evident south of the monsoon trough and east of 26W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical
ridge axis extends westward along 27N and will drift slightly
northward through Sun night, then weaken early next week as a
broad surface trough develops between 50W and 60W and shifts
westward through mid week. This weather pattern will support
moderate to fresh trades south of 24N Sun night, and gentle winds
to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each evening and
night across the waters N of Hispaniola and in the Windward
Passage.
$$
KRV
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Fri, 17 Jul 2026 17:29:29 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 171729
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jul 17 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1651 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between central
Atlantic high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low
will support fresh to strong NE-E winds in the south-central
Caribbean during the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-
force across the waters N of Colombia each night through Sat
night. Rough to very rough seas 12 to 14 ft will develop during
the times of peak winds.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A well defined eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along
22.5W, south of 18N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Recent satellite
imagery and scatterometer data suggest a 1012 mb surface low is
located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands near 13N22W. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 09.5N to 14.5N between 19W
and 25W. Significant development of this system is not expected before
environmental conditions become even less favorable for development
over the weekend, while it moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15
mph. The disturbance has a low chance of development over the
next 7 days.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43.5W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is depicted
with this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N17W and continues
southwestward to a 1012 mb low pressure near 13N22W to 09N42W.
The ITCZ extends from 09N47W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted from 07N to 09N between 26W and 34W.
Similar convection is depicted from 07N to 10N between 49.5W and
58W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1021 mb high pressure is centered southeast and offshore of the
mouth of the Mississippi River, and is forcing moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds over the Bay of Campeche as shown by recent
satellite scatterometer data. Seas area 3 to 6 ft across this
area. Moderate E-SE winds are present in the remainder of the
western waters, where seas are 2-5 ft. North and near the high,
gentle to moderate NW winds and 2 to 3 ft seas prevail.
Elsewhere, slight to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. Upper
level low pressure across the east Gulf is supporting a cluster
of moderate to strong convection along the W coast of Florida from
25N to 28N and west of 85.5W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are also across the Mexican coastal waters from Cabo
Rojo to offshore of Veracruz.
For the forecast, high pressure will meander across the northern
Gulf through early Mon. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse
offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and night. Gentle to
moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, will prevail
elsewhere. Upper level low pressure across the eastern Gulf will
support thunderstorms across portions of the NE Gulf through Sun.
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form this
weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual
development of this system is possible while it meanders over the
northeastern Gulf, northern Florida, or the extreme western
Atlantic near northeastern Florida early next week. The chance of
formation through the next 7 days is low.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean near
the coast of Colombia. Seas are estimated at 10 to 14 ft in the
area presently. Please refer to the Special Features section for
more details.
The Atlantic subtropical ridge persists north of the Caribbean
Sea, forcing strong to near-gale easterly trade winds across the
central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough to very rough seas are found
in these waters. Fresh NE winds and moderate seas are noted in
the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present in the eastern
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure ridge oriented along 27N and the Colombian low will
support NE winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of
Colombia tonight and Sat night. Otherwise, strong to near- gale
force trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of
the central Caribbean into early Mon before contracting to south
of 15N through Tue. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong
each evening in the Windward Passage.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An extensive subtropical ridge persists across the tropical
Atlantic north of 24N, anchored by 1025 mb centered near 28N49W
and extends westward to the Bahamas. Saharan dust and mid-
latitude dry air continue to dominate the basin, suppressing the
development of showers and thunderstorms. Fresh easterly trade
winds and moderate seas are occurring off the SE Bahamas, Haiti
and eastern Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas are prevalent south of 24N and west of 30W to the
Lesser Antilles. Scattered clusters of moderate convection are
noted from offshore of Cape Canaveral northeastward toward
Bermuda.
Meanwhile, in the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong
winds and seas of 5-7 ft are noted north of the monsoon trough
and east of 32W. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and seas of 5-8
ft are evident south of the monsoon trough and east of 26W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical
ridge axis extends westward along 27N and will drift slightly
northward through Sun night, then weaken early next week as a
broad surface trough develops between 50W and 60W and shifts
westward through mid week. This weather pattern will support
moderate to fresh trades south of 24N Sun night, and gentle winds
to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each evening and
night across the waters N of Hispaniola and in the Windward
Passage.
$$
KRV
Active Tropical Systems
- Sun, 19 Jul 2026 05:21:28 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 17 Jul 2026 21:28:30 GMT - Fri, 17 Jul 2026 17:21:28 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
144
ABNT20 KNHC 171721
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located near the southern Cabo Verde Islands. The low continues to
produce a limited and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Significant
development of this system is not expected before environmental
conditions become even less favorable for development over the
weekend. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce
some gusty winds and locally heavy rain over the southern Cabo Verde
Islands over the next several hours.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Northern Gulf of America and near Florida:
A large area of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of
America is associated with an upper-level low and a surface trough.
Some gradual development of this system is possible while it
meanders northward, bringing heavy rain to portions of the Florida
west coast during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Fri, 17 Jul 2026 13:24:27 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 171324
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT FRI 17 JULY 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JULY 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-047
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER THE NE GULF OF AMERICA NEAR 28.0N 84.5W FOR 19/1800Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf