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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Tue, 11 Aug 2026 10:20:23 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 111020
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Aug 11 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W from 05N to 17N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N
to 13N between 23W and 31W.
The axis of a tropical wave is along 51W from 06N to 18N, moving
west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N
to 15N between 50W and 55W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 62W from 13N to 23N, moving
west at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W S of 20N, moving west at
15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection are noted from 10N to
17N and W of 82W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues
southwestward to 1012 mb low pres near 11N29W to 12N49W. The ITCZ
extends from 11N53W to 12N61W. Aside from the convection
mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered showers are
noted within 200 nm on either side of the boundaries.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface ridge extends from the Bermuda High near 29N71W westward
across the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds,
and slight seas prevail across the Gulf waters. Typical moderate
to fresh NE winds are occurring along the N and W coastal waters
of the Yucatan Peninsula, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds are blowing through the Straits of Florida,
producing seas to 4 ft. A low level trough continues to drift
westward across the east central Gulf and is yielding a small
cluster of moderate convection well offshore of the mouth of the
Mississippi River. Afternoon convection across central Florida has
shifted westward over the waters SW of the entrance to Tampa Bay,
and is quickly weakening.
For the forecast, the current ridge surface ridge will dominate
the general wind flow pattern across basin through Sat night.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will prevail across the basin,
with the exception of pulses of fresh winds occurring north and
west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each
evening and night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the
Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate
seas are expected through the forecast period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between a 1021 mb Bermuda High near 29N68W
and a 1008 mb Colombian Low is supporting fresh to strong winds,
and moderate to rough seas, over the central Caribbean S of 17.5N
between 67W and 79W. Scatterometer data depict winds near gale-
force off the northern coast of Colombia, where seas are estimated
at around 10 ft. Fresh NE winds prevail through the Windward
Passage and across the Gulf of Honduras, while moderate to fresh
trade winds prevail across the NE Caribbean to the Mona Passage in
advance of an approaching tropical wave. Gentle to moderate
winds, and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere across SE and
NW portions. Ahead of the tropical wave along 80W scattered
moderate convection is noted between the Cayman Islands and the
east coast of the Yucatan, across the Gulf of Honduras, and along
most of the coast of Nicaragua.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support
fresh to strong trades over the central portion of the basin
through Wed night. The ridge will gradually shift southward to
near 26N by Thu allowing for the trades to significantly expand in
coverage to cover the eastern portion of the basin into early
Sat. Winds are expected to reach near-gale force offshore Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night, except Wed night. Winds
will pulse up to fresh to strong speeds during the evenings and at
night in the the Windward Passage through the forecast period.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N, anchored by a
1021 mb Bermuda High centered near 29N68W, and a 1022 mb high
centered near 27N50W. Light to gentle winds generally prevail
over the waters N of 24N and west of 30W, with slight to moderate
seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted S of 24N and west
of 30W, and moderate seas to 6 ft. Fresh to strong N to NE winds
continues from the Canary Islands to 19N to the east of 25W, where
seas are 5 to 8 ft. Saharan Air dominates most of the basin N of
15N from Africa through the southern Bahamas.
For the forecast west of 55W, the current Atlantic will shift
southward to along 28N today and to near 26N by Thu and change
little into Sat. The gradient will tighten over the southern
portion leading to an increase of the trades from the Bahamas
eastward. Fresh trades will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the
approach to the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to
strong speeds each night. Of note, an area of low pressure is
located about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more
conducive for development during the next day or two, and a
tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of
this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
across the central tropical Atlantic. There is a high chance for
tropical formation of this system within the next 7 days.
$$
ERA
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Tue, 11 Aug 2026 10:20:23 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 111020
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Aug 11 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W from 05N to 17N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N
to 13N between 23W and 31W.
The axis of a tropical wave is along 51W from 06N to 18N, moving
west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N
to 15N between 50W and 55W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 62W from 13N to 23N, moving
west at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W S of 20N, moving west at
15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection are noted from 10N to
17N and W of 82W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues
southwestward to 1012 mb low pres near 11N29W to 12N49W. The ITCZ
extends from 11N53W to 12N61W. Aside from the convection
mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered showers are
noted within 200 nm on either side of the boundaries.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface ridge extends from the Bermuda High near 29N71W westward
across the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds,
and slight seas prevail across the Gulf waters. Typical moderate
to fresh NE winds are occurring along the N and W coastal waters
of the Yucatan Peninsula, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds are blowing through the Straits of Florida,
producing seas to 4 ft. A low level trough continues to drift
westward across the east central Gulf and is yielding a small
cluster of moderate convection well offshore of the mouth of the
Mississippi River. Afternoon convection across central Florida has
shifted westward over the waters SW of the entrance to Tampa Bay,
and is quickly weakening.
For the forecast, the current ridge surface ridge will dominate
the general wind flow pattern across basin through Sat night.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will prevail across the basin,
with the exception of pulses of fresh winds occurring north and
west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each
evening and night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the
Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate
seas are expected through the forecast period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between a 1021 mb Bermuda High near 29N68W
and a 1008 mb Colombian Low is supporting fresh to strong winds,
and moderate to rough seas, over the central Caribbean S of 17.5N
between 67W and 79W. Scatterometer data depict winds near gale-
force off the northern coast of Colombia, where seas are estimated
at around 10 ft. Fresh NE winds prevail through the Windward
Passage and across the Gulf of Honduras, while moderate to fresh
trade winds prevail across the NE Caribbean to the Mona Passage in
advance of an approaching tropical wave. Gentle to moderate
winds, and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere across SE and
NW portions. Ahead of the tropical wave along 80W scattered
moderate convection is noted between the Cayman Islands and the
east coast of the Yucatan, across the Gulf of Honduras, and along
most of the coast of Nicaragua.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support
fresh to strong trades over the central portion of the basin
through Wed night. The ridge will gradually shift southward to
near 26N by Thu allowing for the trades to significantly expand in
coverage to cover the eastern portion of the basin into early
Sat. Winds are expected to reach near-gale force offshore Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night, except Wed night. Winds
will pulse up to fresh to strong speeds during the evenings and at
night in the the Windward Passage through the forecast period.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N, anchored by a
1021 mb Bermuda High centered near 29N68W, and a 1022 mb high
centered near 27N50W. Light to gentle winds generally prevail
over the waters N of 24N and west of 30W, with slight to moderate
seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted S of 24N and west
of 30W, and moderate seas to 6 ft. Fresh to strong N to NE winds
continues from the Canary Islands to 19N to the east of 25W, where
seas are 5 to 8 ft. Saharan Air dominates most of the basin N of
15N from Africa through the southern Bahamas.
For the forecast west of 55W, the current Atlantic will shift
southward to along 28N today and to near 26N by Thu and change
little into Sat. The gradient will tighten over the southern
portion leading to an increase of the trades from the Bahamas
eastward. Fresh trades will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the
approach to the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to
strong speeds each night. Of note, an area of low pressure is
located about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more
conducive for development during the next day or two, and a
tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of
this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
across the central tropical Atlantic. There is a high chance for
tropical formation of this system within the next 7 days.
$$
ERA
Active Tropical Systems
- Wed, 12 Aug 2026 17:04:33 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 11 Aug 2026 11:10:13 GMT - Tue, 11 Aug 2026 05:04:33 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 110504
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity is currently limited in association
with an area of low pressure located about 500 miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to
gradually become more conducive for development during the next day
or two, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter
half of this week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
East of the Windward Islands:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave are located about 850 miles east of the Windward Islands. Some
gradual development of this system is possible through the next day
or two while it moves quickly westward across the central tropical
Atlantic. The system is expected to encounter a large area of
environmental dry air by the time it reaches the Windward Islands
Wednesday night, which should end its chances for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles northeast of
Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days while it moves eastward at around 20 mph across the central
subtropical Atlantic. The system is forecast to reach cooler waters
later this week, ending its chances of formation by Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Mon, 10 Aug 2026 14:43:54 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 101443
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 10 AUGUST 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z AUGUST 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-071
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12.0N 55.0W FOR 12/1800Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL PACIFIC - CP93)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. 12/0000Z
B. NOAA9 01AAC SURV
C. 11/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND
CP93 FOR 13/0000Z, DEPARTING PHJR AT 12/1730Z.
B. POSSIBLE FIX MISSION INTO CP93 NEAR 15.0N 144.0W FOR
13/0000Z.
C. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO CP93 FOR
13/0000Z, DEPARTING PHJR AT 12/2000Z.
$$
KAL
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf