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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:54:52 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 121754
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jun 12 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 29W from 03N to 16N,
moving westward 10 to 15 kt Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are within 120 nm east of the wave from 08N to 10N.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 47W from 05N
to 19N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. The wave axis is
clearly identified in precipitable water imagery. Nearby
convection is discussed in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 58W south of
16N. It is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant
convection is presently occurring near this wave.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 69W south
of 18N, moving westward near 20 kt. Isolated showers are possible
near its axis. This wave is likely to merge with the one ahead
of it in the near future.
A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 76W south
of 18N, moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection
is presently occurring near this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near
15N12W, and extends southwestward to 07N20W and to 06N25W, then
ITCZ to 06N29W. It resumes at 06N39W to 06N31W and to inland
French Guiana at 04N55W. Numerous moderate to strong convection
within 240 nm northwest of the trough between 16W-20W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between
38W-46W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A broad area of low pressure is over the Bay of Campeche, with a
1007 mb low analyzed near 20N94W. A trough extends from the low
to 22N96W, and another trough extends from the low to inland
Mexico just south of Veracruz and continues to inland Mexico near
19N99W. Increasing moderate to strong convection is seen from 19N
to 22N between 92W and 96W. Moderate to fresh east to southeast
winds are within about 300 nm northeast of the low along with seas
of 5 to 7 ft. Weak high pressure across the western Atlantic has
a ridge axis that extends westward across Florida and into the NE
Gulf, and is producing a modest pressure gradient between the
ridge and the trough. Seas are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft over this
area. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate southeast winds
prevail across the western Gulf along with seas of 3 to 5 ft.
Mostly gentle southerly winds are over the eastern Gulf with seas
of 2 to 3 ft.
For the forecast, environmental conditions are forecast to be
only marginally conducive for development of the broad area
of low pressure before it moves inland over eastern Mexico late
Sat or Sun. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf
on Tue and Wed while interacting with a frontal boundary, but
there too, conditions are only expected to be marginally conducive
for any development. The pressure gradient between the low
pressure area and a ridge over the NE Gulf will support fresh to
strong southeast winds along with moderate to rough seas.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Relatively weak high pressure is over the western Atlantic while
a pair of tropical waves are moving rather quickly across the
central Caribbean. Latest satellite scatterometer data passes
indicate fresh to strong southeast winds across the far northwest
Caribbean west of about 80W. These winds are occurring between
the Atlantic ridge to the northeast, and a surface trough over
northern Central America. Seas are 6 to 8 ft over this part of
the basin. This pattern is also supporting fresh to locally
strong trades over the south-central and southeastern portions of
the basin, with strong winds pulsing off northeast Colombia and
northwest Venezuela, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh
trades are elsewhere along with seas of 4 to 6 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over
the northwest part of the sea from 18N to 21N between 82W and 87W,
and over the eastern portion of Hispaniola.
For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will generally remain
in place through early next week, with its associated gradient
supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and
moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean through Sun,
as a pair of tropical waves move westward across the region.
Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to
strong southeast winds and rough seas will also persist over the
northwestern Caribbean, mainly west of about 83W, including the
Gulf of Honduras through Sat evening. Expect active showers and
thunderstorms across portions of the Yucatan Channel and adjacent
Yucatan waters through early Sat.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
High pressure of 1020 mb over the western Atlantic is near
27.5N68W, a with a broad ridge stretching westward toward Florida.
A weak trough extends from near 23N69W to the southeastern Bahamas
and to the northeast tip of Cuba. No significant convection is
near the trough. To the northeast, a stationary front enters the
area through 31N39W and continues to 29N45W, where it begins to
dissipate to 29N49W, then continues as a trough to 29N52.5W and
to a weak 1019 mb low near 30N57W. A trough extends from the low
to near 28N59W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 27N to
29N between 53W and 56W, and along a line from 27N57W to 25N62W.
An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is southeast of
a broad mid to uppe-level trough roughly from 19N to 24N between
62W and 69W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen south of
26N between 72W and 79W.
Elsewhere, a 1024 mb high center is analyzed near 31N31W. High
pressure covers the area north of 18N between 18W and 50W. The
related pressure gradient is generally maintaining moderate to
fresh trades south of about 21N and between 34W and 61W. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft over these waters. Mostly gentle trades along
with seas of 4 to 6 ft are north of 21N and east of 55W while
light to gentle south to southwest winds and low seas of 2 to 4
ft are north of 21N and west of 55W. Satellite scatterometer data
passes detected these winds.
For the forecast west of 55W, the current western Atlantic ridge
will generally remain in place through early next week. The weak
low pressure near 29.5N58.5W will shift NE and out of the
forecast waters through early Sat, then allow the ridge to
reorganize across the area through early next week. This pattern
will support moderate east to southeast trades south of 22N and
gentle anticyclonic winds elsewhere through Sun. Fresh southwest
winds will develop across the northwest forecast waters north
of 29N and west of 74W Sun evening through Tue, as a weak frontal
system moves across the southeastern U.S. Expect fresh to strong
winds each afternoon through late evening across waters near
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
$$
Aguirre
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:54:52 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 121754
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jun 12 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 29W from 03N to 16N,
moving westward 10 to 15 kt Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are within 120 nm east of the wave from 08N to 10N.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 47W from 05N
to 19N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. The wave axis is
clearly identified in precipitable water imagery. Nearby
convection is discussed in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 58W south of
16N. It is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant
convection is presently occurring near this wave.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 69W south
of 18N, moving westward near 20 kt. Isolated showers are possible
near its axis. This wave is likely to merge with the one ahead
of it in the near future.
A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 76W south
of 18N, moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection
is presently occurring near this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near
15N12W, and extends southwestward to 07N20W and to 06N25W, then
ITCZ to 06N29W. It resumes at 06N39W to 06N31W and to inland
French Guiana at 04N55W. Numerous moderate to strong convection
within 240 nm northwest of the trough between 16W-20W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between
38W-46W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A broad area of low pressure is over the Bay of Campeche, with a
1007 mb low analyzed near 20N94W. A trough extends from the low
to 22N96W, and another trough extends from the low to inland
Mexico just south of Veracruz and continues to inland Mexico near
19N99W. Increasing moderate to strong convection is seen from 19N
to 22N between 92W and 96W. Moderate to fresh east to southeast
winds are within about 300 nm northeast of the low along with seas
of 5 to 7 ft. Weak high pressure across the western Atlantic has
a ridge axis that extends westward across Florida and into the NE
Gulf, and is producing a modest pressure gradient between the
ridge and the trough. Seas are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft over this
area. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate southeast winds
prevail across the western Gulf along with seas of 3 to 5 ft.
Mostly gentle southerly winds are over the eastern Gulf with seas
of 2 to 3 ft.
For the forecast, environmental conditions are forecast to be
only marginally conducive for development of the broad area
of low pressure before it moves inland over eastern Mexico late
Sat or Sun. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf
on Tue and Wed while interacting with a frontal boundary, but
there too, conditions are only expected to be marginally conducive
for any development. The pressure gradient between the low
pressure area and a ridge over the NE Gulf will support fresh to
strong southeast winds along with moderate to rough seas.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Relatively weak high pressure is over the western Atlantic while
a pair of tropical waves are moving rather quickly across the
central Caribbean. Latest satellite scatterometer data passes
indicate fresh to strong southeast winds across the far northwest
Caribbean west of about 80W. These winds are occurring between
the Atlantic ridge to the northeast, and a surface trough over
northern Central America. Seas are 6 to 8 ft over this part of
the basin. This pattern is also supporting fresh to locally
strong trades over the south-central and southeastern portions of
the basin, with strong winds pulsing off northeast Colombia and
northwest Venezuela, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh
trades are elsewhere along with seas of 4 to 6 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over
the northwest part of the sea from 18N to 21N between 82W and 87W,
and over the eastern portion of Hispaniola.
For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will generally remain
in place through early next week, with its associated gradient
supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and
moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean through Sun,
as a pair of tropical waves move westward across the region.
Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to
strong southeast winds and rough seas will also persist over the
northwestern Caribbean, mainly west of about 83W, including the
Gulf of Honduras through Sat evening. Expect active showers and
thunderstorms across portions of the Yucatan Channel and adjacent
Yucatan waters through early Sat.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
High pressure of 1020 mb over the western Atlantic is near
27.5N68W, a with a broad ridge stretching westward toward Florida.
A weak trough extends from near 23N69W to the southeastern Bahamas
and to the northeast tip of Cuba. No significant convection is
near the trough. To the northeast, a stationary front enters the
area through 31N39W and continues to 29N45W, where it begins to
dissipate to 29N49W, then continues as a trough to 29N52.5W and
to a weak 1019 mb low near 30N57W. A trough extends from the low
to near 28N59W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 27N to
29N between 53W and 56W, and along a line from 27N57W to 25N62W.
An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is southeast of
a broad mid to uppe-level trough roughly from 19N to 24N between
62W and 69W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen south of
26N between 72W and 79W.
Elsewhere, a 1024 mb high center is analyzed near 31N31W. High
pressure covers the area north of 18N between 18W and 50W. The
related pressure gradient is generally maintaining moderate to
fresh trades south of about 21N and between 34W and 61W. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft over these waters. Mostly gentle trades along
with seas of 4 to 6 ft are north of 21N and east of 55W while
light to gentle south to southwest winds and low seas of 2 to 4
ft are north of 21N and west of 55W. Satellite scatterometer data
passes detected these winds.
For the forecast west of 55W, the current western Atlantic ridge
will generally remain in place through early next week. The weak
low pressure near 29.5N58.5W will shift NE and out of the
forecast waters through early Sat, then allow the ridge to
reorganize across the area through early next week. This pattern
will support moderate east to southeast trades south of 22N and
gentle anticyclonic winds elsewhere through Sun. Fresh southwest
winds will develop across the northwest forecast waters north
of 29N and west of 74W Sun evening through Tue, as a weak frontal
system moves across the southeastern U.S. Expect fresh to strong
winds each afternoon through late evening across waters near
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
$$
Aguirre
Active Tropical Systems
- Sun, 14 Jun 2026 05:27:12 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 12 Jun 2026 19:27:55 GMT - Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:27:12 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121727
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Western Gulf:
Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity has increased a
little near a broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of
Campeche. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only
marginally conducive for development before the system moves inland
over eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. The system could
re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday while
interacting with a frontal boundary, but there too, conditions are
only expected to be marginally conducive for any development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Fri, 12 Jun 2026 13:45:36 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 121345
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT FRI 12 JUNE 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z JUNE 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-012
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf