2026 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models

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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2026 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 7 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Sat, 28 Feb 2026 04:28:55 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 280428
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Sat Feb 28 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0400 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gale Warning East of 35W: A Gale Warning remains in effect for
    the Canarias and Agadir Marine Zones of Meteo France. The
    forecast calls for NE winds to Force 8 on the Beaufort Wind
    Scale, with severe gusts between the Canary Islands through at
    least 01/0000 UTC. Seas currently range from 9 to 13 ft N of 10N
    and E of 30W based on a recent altimeter pass. Higher seas of 12
    to 15 ft are possible just N of the Canary Islands.

    For more information, please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
    issued by Meteo-France at website:
    https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiches/2

    Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A robust
    high pressure system near the Azores is maintaining fresh to
    strong trade winds across the eastern and central Atlantic. Wind
    waves generated by these winds will continue to generate seas of
    8 to 13 ft across most of the waters between 20W and 60W, with
    highest seas E of 40W. This event will persist through early next
    week, while drifting SW.

    Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
    National Hurricane Center at website:
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
    information.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
    near 11N14W, then extends southwestward to 08N16W. The ITCZ
    continues from 08N16W to the coast of Brazil near 05S36W.
    Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ between
    20W-26W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A cold front extends across the northern Gulf from 30N85W to
    26N97W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 29N84W to 25N91W.
    Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the
    trough. This convective activity is further supported by a broad
    upper-level trough that is shifting eastward over the east-central
    Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail across the basin, with seas in
    the 2 to 4 ft range.

    For the forecast, the convection will progress southeastward
    tonight while the front slows down as it shifts east-southeastward
    across the northern half of the basin into Sat, and to east of
    the basin Sat night while weakening. A strong ridge of high
    pressure will build west- southwestward over the area from the N
    Atlantic beginning on Sun night, with the related gradient
    generally supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds
    across the Gulf.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Strong high pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian
    low supports fresh to strong trade winds over the central
    Caribbean. Seas are 7 to 9 ft with these winds. Moderate to
    fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the eastern Caribbean
    while mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds with moderate seas
    are noted over the NW part of the basin. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are
    noted across the Atlantic passages in the NE Caribbean.

    For the forecast, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic
    will continue to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and
    moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean
    over the next several days. A tight pressure gradient between
    strong high pressure N of the area and relatively lower pressure
    in N Colombia will initiate gale-force winds off Colombia at night
    Mon through Wed, and fresh to strong trades elsewhere across most
    of the central and eastern portions of the basin. Rough seas in
    mixed swell will prevail in the tropical N Atlantic through early
    next week, with seas to 12 ft possibly near 55W. Elsewhere, little
    change is expected with moderate to fresh trades continuing
    through the period.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A Gale warning is in effect E of 35W. Please, see the Special
    Features section for more information.

    A strong high pressure of 1035 mb, located near the Azores,
    extends a ridge across the entire Atlantic forecast waters. The
    tight pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in
    the deep tropics and western Africa result in fresh to strong
    easterly winds and rough seas over much of the central and eastern
    Atlantic. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and moderate seas are
    noted on the western periphery of the ridge N of the NW Bahamas
    and E of Florida. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
    seas are prevalent.

    For the forecast west of 55W, a weak front will emerge off the
    southeastern U.S. coast early on Sat, and move slowly
    southeastward and weaken across the waters W of 65W through Sun
    night before dissipating. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
    ahead of the front are affecting the waters off Florida. Another
    cold front is expected to enter the northern waters early next
    week and gradually shift southeastward and weaken. Fresh to strong
    easterly winds and rough seas are forecast behind the front Mon
    night through Tue night north of 27N along with seas to around 12
    ft near 31N between 50W and 67W. High pressure will build by the
    middle of next week resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough
    seas over much of the basin.

    $$
    ERA
Tropical Weather Discussion
  • Sat, 28 Feb 2026 04:28:55 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 280428
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0615 UTC Sat Feb 28 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0400 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gale Warning East of 35W: A Gale Warning remains in effect for
    the Canarias and Agadir Marine Zones of Meteo France. The
    forecast calls for NE winds to Force 8 on the Beaufort Wind
    Scale, with severe gusts between the Canary Islands through at
    least 01/0000 UTC. Seas currently range from 9 to 13 ft N of 10N
    and E of 30W based on a recent altimeter pass. Higher seas of 12
    to 15 ft are possible just N of the Canary Islands.

    For more information, please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
    issued by Meteo-France at website:
    https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiches/2

    Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A robust
    high pressure system near the Azores is maintaining fresh to
    strong trade winds across the eastern and central Atlantic. Wind
    waves generated by these winds will continue to generate seas of
    8 to 13 ft across most of the waters between 20W and 60W, with
    highest seas E of 40W. This event will persist through early next
    week, while drifting SW.

    Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
    National Hurricane Center at website:
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
    information.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
    near 11N14W, then extends southwestward to 08N16W. The ITCZ
    continues from 08N16W to the coast of Brazil near 05S36W.
    Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ between
    20W-26W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A cold front extends across the northern Gulf from 30N85W to
    26N97W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 29N84W to 25N91W.
    Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the
    trough. This convective activity is further supported by a broad
    upper-level trough that is shifting eastward over the east-central
    Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail across the basin, with seas in
    the 2 to 4 ft range.

    For the forecast, the convection will progress southeastward
    tonight while the front slows down as it shifts east-southeastward
    across the northern half of the basin into Sat, and to east of
    the basin Sat night while weakening. A strong ridge of high
    pressure will build west- southwestward over the area from the N
    Atlantic beginning on Sun night, with the related gradient
    generally supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds
    across the Gulf.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Strong high pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian
    low supports fresh to strong trade winds over the central
    Caribbean. Seas are 7 to 9 ft with these winds. Moderate to
    fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the eastern Caribbean
    while mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds with moderate seas
    are noted over the NW part of the basin. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are
    noted across the Atlantic passages in the NE Caribbean.

    For the forecast, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic
    will continue to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and
    moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean
    over the next several days. A tight pressure gradient between
    strong high pressure N of the area and relatively lower pressure
    in N Colombia will initiate gale-force winds off Colombia at night
    Mon through Wed, and fresh to strong trades elsewhere across most
    of the central and eastern portions of the basin. Rough seas in
    mixed swell will prevail in the tropical N Atlantic through early
    next week, with seas to 12 ft possibly near 55W. Elsewhere, little
    change is expected with moderate to fresh trades continuing
    through the period.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A Gale warning is in effect E of 35W. Please, see the Special
    Features section for more information.

    A strong high pressure of 1035 mb, located near the Azores,
    extends a ridge across the entire Atlantic forecast waters. The
    tight pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in
    the deep tropics and western Africa result in fresh to strong
    easterly winds and rough seas over much of the central and eastern
    Atlantic. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and moderate seas are
    noted on the western periphery of the ridge N of the NW Bahamas
    and E of Florida. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
    seas are prevalent.

    For the forecast west of 55W, a weak front will emerge off the
    southeastern U.S. coast early on Sat, and move slowly
    southeastward and weaken across the waters W of 65W through Sun
    night before dissipating. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
    ahead of the front are affecting the waters off Florida. Another
    cold front is expected to enter the northern waters early next
    week and gradually shift southeastward and weaken. Fresh to strong
    easterly winds and rough seas are forecast behind the front Mon
    night through Tue night north of 27N along with seas to around 12
    ft near 31N between 50W and 67W. High pressure will build by the
    middle of next week resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough
    seas over much of the basin.

    $$
    ERA
Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
  • Fri, 27 Feb 2026 17:15:26 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
    000
    NOUS42 KNHC 271715
    REPRPD
    WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
    CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
    1215 PM EST FRI 27 FEBRUARY 2026
    SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
    VALID 28/1100Z TO 01/1100Z MARCH 2026
    WSPOD NUMBER.....25-089

    I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    $$
    WJM

    NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
  • Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf
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