SUPPORT TRACK THE TROPICS
Over the last decade plus if you appreciate the information and tracking I provide during the season along with this website which donations help keep it running please consider a one time... recurring or yearly donation if you are able to help me out...
Venmo: @TrackTheTropicsLouisiana
Website: TrackTheTropics.com/DONATE
Venmo: @TrackTheTropicsLouisiana
Website: TrackTheTropics.com/DONATE
DONATE2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sun, 04 Jan 2026 22:02:46 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
270
AXNT20 KNHC 042202
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jan 5 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and continues to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from
05N19W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N
to 07N between 19W and 35W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A stalling cold front extends from near Fort Myers, Florida, to
just south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate NE winds and 2 to 4 ft
seas follow the front in the NE Gulf, otherwise there is little
sensible weather change associated with its passage, with light to
gentle winds and slight seas dominating the remainder of the
basin.
For the forecast, the front will gradually dissipate through Mon.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front, with moderate
or weaker winds and slight seas prevailing through the middle of
the week. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop over
the western waters the middle to end of the week ahead of the next
cold front expected to move into the NW Gulf Fri night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough extending from E Cuba to a 1011 mb low along the
north-central coast of Colombia is generating scattered moderate
convection between Panama and Colombia, between Cuba, Jamaica, and
Haiti, and within 90 nm south of Haiti. West of the trough axis,
fresh N winds are impacting portions of the western basin from S
of eastern Cuba to offshore Nicaragua. Fresh trades are also
ongoing in the SE Caribbean. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or
weaker as the pressure gradient has been disrupted by a cold front
N of the region in the Atlantic. Seas are 2 to 5 ft, highest were
winds are fresh, and lowest in the Lee of Cuba, Yucatan Passage,
and Gulf of Honduras.
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to
moderate trade winds over the Caribbean waters through midweek.
High pressure will build north of the area, which will tighten the
pressure gradient across the area the middle of the week. The
tighter pressure gradient will support fresh trade winds over the
central Caribbean, with winds reaching strong speeds off Colombia.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1001 mb low NW of Bermuda extends a cold front that reaches
from 31N68W to South Florida this afternoon. Scattered moderate
convection along this boundary is confined to just E of the
Bahamas between 71W and 75W. Fresh to locally strong NW winds
follow the front N of 28N, along with rough seas. Fresh to locally
strong SW winds and similarly rough seas extend E of the front, N
of 28N, to where a pre-frontal trough is marked from 31N65W to
the Turks and Caicos. This trough is inducing scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection within 90 nm on either side of its
axis. Still farther E, a mid- and upper-level trough along 60W N
of 25N is also inducing scattered moderate convection within 60 nm
on either side of its axis. For the remaining waters N of 23N and
W of 55W, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas dominate. In
the tradewind belt S of 15N, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5
to 7 seas prevail. In the NE basin, fresh N winds and rough seas
prevail N of 25N and E of 30W, with rough seas but lighter winds
extending southward to the Cabo Verde Islands. Elsewhere over the
basin, generally moderate seas prevail, with moderate or weaker
winds.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move E across
the waters and out of the area early this week. Fresh to strong
winds on either side of the front N of 28N will diminish this
evening. Rough seas across the northern waters will subside by
midweek. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, with
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevailing.
$$
Konarik
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sun, 04 Jan 2026 22:02:46 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
270
AXNT20 KNHC 042202
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jan 5 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and continues to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from
05N19W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N
to 07N between 19W and 35W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A stalling cold front extends from near Fort Myers, Florida, to
just south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate NE winds and 2 to 4 ft
seas follow the front in the NE Gulf, otherwise there is little
sensible weather change associated with its passage, with light to
gentle winds and slight seas dominating the remainder of the
basin.
For the forecast, the front will gradually dissipate through Mon.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front, with moderate
or weaker winds and slight seas prevailing through the middle of
the week. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop over
the western waters the middle to end of the week ahead of the next
cold front expected to move into the NW Gulf Fri night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough extending from E Cuba to a 1011 mb low along the
north-central coast of Colombia is generating scattered moderate
convection between Panama and Colombia, between Cuba, Jamaica, and
Haiti, and within 90 nm south of Haiti. West of the trough axis,
fresh N winds are impacting portions of the western basin from S
of eastern Cuba to offshore Nicaragua. Fresh trades are also
ongoing in the SE Caribbean. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or
weaker as the pressure gradient has been disrupted by a cold front
N of the region in the Atlantic. Seas are 2 to 5 ft, highest were
winds are fresh, and lowest in the Lee of Cuba, Yucatan Passage,
and Gulf of Honduras.
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to
moderate trade winds over the Caribbean waters through midweek.
High pressure will build north of the area, which will tighten the
pressure gradient across the area the middle of the week. The
tighter pressure gradient will support fresh trade winds over the
central Caribbean, with winds reaching strong speeds off Colombia.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1001 mb low NW of Bermuda extends a cold front that reaches
from 31N68W to South Florida this afternoon. Scattered moderate
convection along this boundary is confined to just E of the
Bahamas between 71W and 75W. Fresh to locally strong NW winds
follow the front N of 28N, along with rough seas. Fresh to locally
strong SW winds and similarly rough seas extend E of the front, N
of 28N, to where a pre-frontal trough is marked from 31N65W to
the Turks and Caicos. This trough is inducing scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection within 90 nm on either side of its
axis. Still farther E, a mid- and upper-level trough along 60W N
of 25N is also inducing scattered moderate convection within 60 nm
on either side of its axis. For the remaining waters N of 23N and
W of 55W, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas dominate. In
the tradewind belt S of 15N, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5
to 7 seas prevail. In the NE basin, fresh N winds and rough seas
prevail N of 25N and E of 30W, with rough seas but lighter winds
extending southward to the Cabo Verde Islands. Elsewhere over the
basin, generally moderate seas prevail, with moderate or weaker
winds.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move E across
the waters and out of the area early this week. Fresh to strong
winds on either side of the front N of 28N will diminish this
evening. Rough seas across the northern waters will subside by
midweek. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, with
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevailing.
$$
Konarik
Active Tropical Systems
- Mon, 05 Jan 2026 02:36:39 +0000: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. - NHC Atlantic
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sun, 04 Jan 2026 14:23:04 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 041423
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0925 AM EST SUN 04 JANUARY 2026
SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JANUARY 2026
WSPOD NUMBER.....25-035
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
KAL
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf