SUPPORT TRACK THE TROPICS
Over the last decade plus if you appreciate the information and tracking I provide during the season along with this website which donations help keep it running please consider a one time... recurring or yearly donation if you are able to help me out...
Venmo: @TrackTheTropicsLouisiana
Website: TrackTheTropics.com/DONATE
Venmo: @TrackTheTropicsLouisiana
Website: TrackTheTropics.com/DONATE
DONATE2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Tue, 16 Sep 2025 18:06:31 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 161806
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Sep 16 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Central Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL92):
A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 41.5W from 20N southward
across a broad 1007 mb low pressure (AL92) near 13.4N41.5W. At
this time, fresh to strong winds and rough seas are noted within
the low. A Gale warning has been issued for the waters near this
system as gale winds are forecast to begin at 18/00Z. Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 09N to 18N
between 34W and 49W. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the
elongated area of low pressure have become better organized since
yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form
in the next day or two as the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
There is a high chance of tropical development within the next 48
hours, and within the next 7 days.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 17.5W, moving W at around 10
kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted with this
wave from 11N-15N east of 20.5W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 60W from 21N southward,
and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 15N to 24N between 55.5W and 61W.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 77W from near central
Jamaica southward to NW Colombia, moving west at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted near Jamaica, NW Colombia,
and Panama.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W to 09N50W. Aside
from the convection related to the eastern Atlantic tropical wave
and Invest AL92, scattered moderate convection is depicted from
11N to 13W between 23.5W and 27W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A diurnal surface trough is coupling with an upper-level trough to
trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
eastern Bay of Campeche, and north of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Otherwise, a 1020 mb high pressure over the SE U.S. is supporting
mostly gentle NE to E winds and slight seas across the basin.
For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through
the week supporting gentle to moderate winds.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Refer to the Tropical Wave section above for details on the
tropical wave moving across the basin.
Convergent trades are being enhanced by divergent southerly winds
aloft to generate numerous moderate to scattered strong convection
over the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over
western Cuba and the Cayman Islands. The interaction between a
tropical wave and the eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough is
supporting numerous moderate to scattered strong convection south
of 12N and west of 76W.
A subtropical ridge near 22N continues to supply a trade-wind
regime across much of the basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
and seas 4 to 7 ft dominate the central part of the basin. Gentle
to moderate NE to E winds and seas 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the tropical wave will continue moving across
the western Caribbean through Thu night, producing showers and
thunderstorms. Expect fresh trades over the central Caribbean in
the wake of the wave. Another tropical wave is expected to enter
the eastern Caribbean on Wed. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades
and moderate seas will prevail through the week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please read the sections above for details on Invest AL92 and the
tropical waves moving across the basin.
A surface trough near 26N65W is triggering scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection from 24.5N to 26.5N between 63W and
65W. A 1023 mb high pressure near 31N51W is sustaining gentle to
moderate variable winds and moderate seas north of 24N between 35W
and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas prevail across the rest of the basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, showers and thunderstorms
associated with a broad low pressure area located about midway
between the Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa have
become better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions
are conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or two as
the system moves west- northwestward or northwestward at around 10
kt over the central tropical Atlantic. There is a high chance of
tropical formation over the next 48 hours. Regardless of
development, expect increasing winds and building seas over the
southeastern waters by Thu into Fri, with gale conditions possible
Fri into the weekend.
$$
KRV
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Tue, 16 Sep 2025 18:06:31 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 161806
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Sep 16 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Central Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL92):
A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 41.5W from 20N southward
across a broad 1007 mb low pressure (AL92) near 13.4N41.5W. At
this time, fresh to strong winds and rough seas are noted within
the low. A Gale warning has been issued for the waters near this
system as gale winds are forecast to begin at 18/00Z. Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 09N to 18N
between 34W and 49W. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the
elongated area of low pressure have become better organized since
yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form
in the next day or two as the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
There is a high chance of tropical development within the next 48
hours, and within the next 7 days.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 17.5W, moving W at around 10
kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted with this
wave from 11N-15N east of 20.5W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 60W from 21N southward,
and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 15N to 24N between 55.5W and 61W.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 77W from near central
Jamaica southward to NW Colombia, moving west at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted near Jamaica, NW Colombia,
and Panama.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W to 09N50W. Aside
from the convection related to the eastern Atlantic tropical wave
and Invest AL92, scattered moderate convection is depicted from
11N to 13W between 23.5W and 27W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A diurnal surface trough is coupling with an upper-level trough to
trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
eastern Bay of Campeche, and north of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Otherwise, a 1020 mb high pressure over the SE U.S. is supporting
mostly gentle NE to E winds and slight seas across the basin.
For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through
the week supporting gentle to moderate winds.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Refer to the Tropical Wave section above for details on the
tropical wave moving across the basin.
Convergent trades are being enhanced by divergent southerly winds
aloft to generate numerous moderate to scattered strong convection
over the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over
western Cuba and the Cayman Islands. The interaction between a
tropical wave and the eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough is
supporting numerous moderate to scattered strong convection south
of 12N and west of 76W.
A subtropical ridge near 22N continues to supply a trade-wind
regime across much of the basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
and seas 4 to 7 ft dominate the central part of the basin. Gentle
to moderate NE to E winds and seas 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the tropical wave will continue moving across
the western Caribbean through Thu night, producing showers and
thunderstorms. Expect fresh trades over the central Caribbean in
the wake of the wave. Another tropical wave is expected to enter
the eastern Caribbean on Wed. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades
and moderate seas will prevail through the week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please read the sections above for details on Invest AL92 and the
tropical waves moving across the basin.
A surface trough near 26N65W is triggering scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection from 24.5N to 26.5N between 63W and
65W. A 1023 mb high pressure near 31N51W is sustaining gentle to
moderate variable winds and moderate seas north of 24N between 35W
and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas prevail across the rest of the basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, showers and thunderstorms
associated with a broad low pressure area located about midway
between the Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa have
become better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions
are conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or two as
the system moves west- northwestward or northwestward at around 10
kt over the central tropical Atlantic. There is a high chance of
tropical formation over the next 48 hours. Regardless of
development, expect increasing winds and building seas over the
southeastern waters by Thu into Fri, with gale conditions possible
Fri into the weekend.
$$
KRV
Active Tropical Systems
- Thu, 18 Sep 2025 05:54:21 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 16 Sep 2025 18:37:51 GMT - Tue, 16 Sep 2025 17:54:21 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
219
ABNT20 KNHC 161754
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure located about midway between the Windward Islands and the
Cabo Verde Islands have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next
day or two as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave just offshore of the west coast of Africa is
producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development of this system is possible towards the latter
part of this week as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, moving from
the eastern to central portion of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Chenard/Blake
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Tue, 16 Sep 2025 14:20:47 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 161420
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1020 AM EDT TUE 16 SEPTEMBER 2025
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2025
TCPOD NUMBER.....25-108
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: THE NOAA 42 P-3 AIRCRAFT IS FLYING A 7-HOUR OCEAN SURVEY
RESEARCH MISSION TODAY OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf