SHOW ME SOME LOVE AND SUPPORT
Website: TrackTheTropics.com/DONATE
Venmo: @TrackTheTropicsLouisiana
Cash App: Cash.App/$TrackTheTropics
Subscribe: FB.com/TrackTheTropics
MAIN DONATION PAGEWebsite: TrackTheTropics.com/DONATE
Venmo: @TrackTheTropicsLouisiana
Cash App: Cash.App/$TrackTheTropics
Subscribe: FB.com/TrackTheTropics
Earn CASH Back On Gas $$$$ 
Shop Store For Essentials
2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Fri, 21 Aug 2026 10:45:26 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 211045
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Aug 21 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A new far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 17W
based on satellite imagery and on model diagnostics. It is moving
westward near 15 kt. Satellite imagery shows an ill-defined mid-
level cyclonic circulation near 11N17W. Increasing scattered
showers and thunderstorms are west of the wave to near 21N from
08N to 10N.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W south of
21N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Increasing scattered moderate
convection is within 150 nm either side of the wave from 08N to
09N and from 12N to 14N.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 48W south of
19N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Increasing scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is east of the wave to near 45W and
from 10N to 13N.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W south of 19N. It
is moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is
occurring with this wave.
A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 87W south of
20N to inland Central America, and reaches farther south to the
eastern Pacific Ocean. It is moving westward at around 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection has recently formed over the
northwest portion of Honduras, and near its coast behind the wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and continues
southwestward to 10N22W, then to 12N30W to 11N40W and to 10N49W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 10N55W and to 10N60W. Outside
of convection associated with tropical wave, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of the trough
between 32W-35W. Scattered moderate convection is south of the
trough from 06N to 10N between 29W-33W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A mid to upper-level trough stretches from southeastern Georgia
to the NE Gulf and to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. A mid-level
low is near 27N86W. To the southwest of these features, broad
mid to upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the basin south of
about 27N. Plenty of instability is in place over most of the
eastern Gulf providing favorable conditions for the trough
and low to aid in the development of additional showers and
thunderstorms over the NE Gulf through Sat, and in addition as a
couple of shortwave troughs swing eastward across this same part of
the Gulf.
Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure across the basin supported
by a 1017 mb high center at 26N91W is providing for generally light
to gentle anticyclonic winds throughout, except for fresh to strong
NE winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula due the pressure gradient
associated with a diurnal trough. Seas are generally 3 ft or less.
For the forecast, the aforementioned weak high pressure centered
over the central Gulf will prevail over the basin through early
next week. A weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to
moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas across much of
the basin. A surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong
winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early
evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula
at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection
across the basin.
The pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered S of
Bermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting
fresh to strong trades over the south- central basin between 69W
and 75W, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle
over the NW basin. Seas are moderate, except 7 to 9 ft in the
south-central portion as noted in overnight satellite altimeter
data passes. Slight sea state over the northwest part of the sea.
Isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted south of
14N east of 70W.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient associated to relatively
weak high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to
sustain fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the
south-central Caribbean through much of the forecast period.
Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail over the
north- central and eastern Caribbean through the weekend and into
early next week. A tropical wave will move across the tropical
Atlantic and into the far eastern Caribbean early next week
enhancing the trade wind flow across those waters. Elsewhere,
moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are
expected.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See Tropical Waves section for information on convection in deep
tropics.
A weak 1018 mb low is just north of the area near 33N51W, with a
trough extending southwestward to another weak low of 1017 mb near
30N56W. The trough continues from this low to near 27N65W.
Scattered thunderstorms are along and near the trough and 1017 mb
low from 27N to 30N between 55W and 58W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are present elsewhere north of 25N between 55W and
78W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of
subtropical ridging, generally allowing for moderate or weaker
winds and seas, except for a belt of moderate to fresh trades
between 12N and 22N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Fresh to locally
strong north to northeast winds prevail across the northeastern
waters from the Canary Islands southward to near 18N and east of
about 22W. Seas over these waters are 6 to 9 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the weak pressure gradient in place
will support mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters
north of 23N going into early next week. Moderate to fresh trades
are expected south of about 23N, especially off northern
Hispaniola through the period. These trades may pulse to fresh to
strong speeds off northern Hispaniola at night through most of the
forecast period. Meanwhile, the northern portion of tropical wave
is expected to move through the eastern portion of the area early
next week enhancing the trades some.
$$
Aguirre
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Fri, 21 Aug 2026 10:45:26 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 211045
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Aug 21 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A new far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 17W
based on satellite imagery and on model diagnostics. It is moving
westward near 15 kt. Satellite imagery shows an ill-defined mid-
level cyclonic circulation near 11N17W. Increasing scattered
showers and thunderstorms are west of the wave to near 21N from
08N to 10N.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W south of
21N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Increasing scattered moderate
convection is within 150 nm either side of the wave from 08N to
09N and from 12N to 14N.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 48W south of
19N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Increasing scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is east of the wave to near 45W and
from 10N to 13N.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W south of 19N. It
is moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is
occurring with this wave.
A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 87W south of
20N to inland Central America, and reaches farther south to the
eastern Pacific Ocean. It is moving westward at around 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection has recently formed over the
northwest portion of Honduras, and near its coast behind the wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and continues
southwestward to 10N22W, then to 12N30W to 11N40W and to 10N49W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 10N55W and to 10N60W. Outside
of convection associated with tropical wave, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of the trough
between 32W-35W. Scattered moderate convection is south of the
trough from 06N to 10N between 29W-33W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A mid to upper-level trough stretches from southeastern Georgia
to the NE Gulf and to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. A mid-level
low is near 27N86W. To the southwest of these features, broad
mid to upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the basin south of
about 27N. Plenty of instability is in place over most of the
eastern Gulf providing favorable conditions for the trough
and low to aid in the development of additional showers and
thunderstorms over the NE Gulf through Sat, and in addition as a
couple of shortwave troughs swing eastward across this same part of
the Gulf.
Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure across the basin supported
by a 1017 mb high center at 26N91W is providing for generally light
to gentle anticyclonic winds throughout, except for fresh to strong
NE winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula due the pressure gradient
associated with a diurnal trough. Seas are generally 3 ft or less.
For the forecast, the aforementioned weak high pressure centered
over the central Gulf will prevail over the basin through early
next week. A weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to
moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas across much of
the basin. A surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong
winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early
evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula
at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection
across the basin.
The pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered S of
Bermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting
fresh to strong trades over the south- central basin between 69W
and 75W, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle
over the NW basin. Seas are moderate, except 7 to 9 ft in the
south-central portion as noted in overnight satellite altimeter
data passes. Slight sea state over the northwest part of the sea.
Isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted south of
14N east of 70W.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient associated to relatively
weak high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to
sustain fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the
south-central Caribbean through much of the forecast period.
Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail over the
north- central and eastern Caribbean through the weekend and into
early next week. A tropical wave will move across the tropical
Atlantic and into the far eastern Caribbean early next week
enhancing the trade wind flow across those waters. Elsewhere,
moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are
expected.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See Tropical Waves section for information on convection in deep
tropics.
A weak 1018 mb low is just north of the area near 33N51W, with a
trough extending southwestward to another weak low of 1017 mb near
30N56W. The trough continues from this low to near 27N65W.
Scattered thunderstorms are along and near the trough and 1017 mb
low from 27N to 30N between 55W and 58W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are present elsewhere north of 25N between 55W and
78W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of
subtropical ridging, generally allowing for moderate or weaker
winds and seas, except for a belt of moderate to fresh trades
between 12N and 22N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Fresh to locally
strong north to northeast winds prevail across the northeastern
waters from the Canary Islands southward to near 18N and east of
about 22W. Seas over these waters are 6 to 9 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the weak pressure gradient in place
will support mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters
north of 23N going into early next week. Moderate to fresh trades
are expected south of about 23N, especially off northern
Hispaniola through the period. These trades may pulse to fresh to
strong speeds off northern Hispaniola at night through most of the
forecast period. Meanwhile, the northern portion of tropical wave
is expected to move through the eastern portion of the area early
next week enhancing the trades some.
$$
Aguirre
Active Tropical Systems
- Sat, 22 Aug 2026 23:19:55 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:40:13 GMT - Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:19:55 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 211119
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northeastern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure has developed over the
northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles north-northeast of the
Azores. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics on Saturday or early Sunday while it moves
east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern
Spain. The opportunity of tropical or subtropical development should
end by Sunday night when the system moves into unfavorable
environmental conditions. For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A weak area of low pressure located over the central subtropical
Atlantic a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda is producing
an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of
this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts
west-southwestward through Sunday and then turns northward early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at
https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Thu, 20 Aug 2026 16:05:13 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
447
NOUS42 KNHC 201605
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1205 PM EDT THU 20 AUGUST 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-081
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 42
A. 21/1730Z,2330Z A. 22/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0102C CYCLONE B. NOAA2 0202C CYCLONE
C. 21/1430Z C. 21/2000Z
D. 13.6N 146.8W D. 14.0N 147.5W
E. 21/1700Z TO 21/2330Z E. 21/2200Z TO 22/0230Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. FIX G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION
FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 78
A. 22/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 0302C CYCLONE
C. 22/0230Z
D. 14.5N 148.4W
E. 22/0500Z TO 22/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO TD 2-C FOR
23/0000Z, DEPARTING PHJR AT 22/2000Z.
3. REMARK: DURING THE NOAA 42 MISSION TASKED FOR THE 22/0000Z
SYNOPTIC TIME, FOUR SMALL UAS ARE PLANNED FOR RELEASE WITHIN
THE WRA. THEY WILL OPERATE AT OR BELOW 5,000 FT FOR ABOUT
1 TO 2 HOURS.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf