2026 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models

Track The Tropics
SUPPORT TRACK THE TROPICS Over the last decade plus if you appreciate the information and tracking I provide during the season along with this website which donations help keep it running please consider a one time... recurring or yearly donation if you are able to help me out...

Venmo: @TrackTheTropicsLouisiana
Website: TrackTheTropics.com/DONATE

Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2026 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Share this page
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 7 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Tue, 24 Feb 2026 10:31:26 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 241031
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1215 UTC Tue Feb 24 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Large Northwest Swell Western Atlantic:
    Large NW swell has been generated by a deep low pressure area
    (previously a hurricane force low and now a storm force low) over
    the NW Atlantic offshore of the Canadian Maritimes. This NW swell
    is propagating across the NW discussion waters with and behind a
    strong cold front, with very rough seas of 12-17 ft over the
    waters N of a line from 31N62W to 26N74W to 31N77W. This large
    swell producing seas of 12 ft and higher will continue to
    propagate southeastward over the waters N of 25N, reaching as far
    east as 50W through Wed morning before subsiding below 12 ft.

    Large Northwest Swell Central Atlantic: Large NW to N swell,
    generated by a former storm force low NE of the area (currently a
    gale force low) is bringing very rough seas of 12-18 ft over the
    waters N of a line from 31N48W to 26N48W to 25N40W to 30N30W.
    This swell will shift S and SE through midweek to cover the
    waters N of 16N and E of 45W through Wed morning before subsiding
    below 12 ft Wed afternoon.

    Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
    National Hurricane Center at website:
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
    information.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N16W and continues southwestward to
    04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to the coast of Brazil near
    01.5S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 03N between
    06W and 51W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A 1030 mb high pressure system over the Mississippi Valley
    extends southward into the Gulf of America and southeastward
    across S Florida and the Bahamas, behind the recent cold front,
    resulting in fresh to locally strong northerly winds and rough
    seas to 12 ft in N swell east of 90W. Moderate to locally fresh
    NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft in NE swell are found across the
    SW Gulf and into the Bay of Campeche. Moderate or weaker winds and
    slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. The dry and cold
    continental airmass moving across the basin sustain widespread
    stratocumulus clouds south of 26N, while generally clear skies
    prevail north of 26N. Moisture banking along the eastern flanks
    of the Sierra Madre Oriental may result in locally heavy rainfall.

    For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to subside from NW
    to SE through this evening, as the high pressure shifts E-SE and
    into the Atlantic by early Wed. Fresh to strong southerly return
    flow will develop across the NW Gulf Tue night and expand across
    the SW and central Gulf Wed into Thu, ahead of the next cold front
    forecast to enter the NW Gulf Thu night. This next front is
    expected to stall from the Florida Big Bend to the central Mexican
    coastal waters Sat.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A cold front extends from NW Haiti through the Windward Passage to
    the east-central coast of Nicaragua. Scattered showers continue near
    the front. Moisture banking against the mountainous terrain in
    Central America may result in locally heavy rainfall across
    Honduras, Guatemala and Belize. A pre-frontal trough is producing
    some showers over Hispaniola. Fresh to strong northerly winds and
    rough seas to 12 ft are occurring behind the front. Meanwhile,
    moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are
    present in the remainder of the basin south of 15N. Moderate or
    weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent north of 15N.

    For the forecast, the cold front will slide southeastward,
    reaching north-central Hispaniola to SE Nicaragua Tue afternoon,
    before stalling on Wed from eastern Hispaniola to near the
    Nicaragua- Costa Rica border. The strong winds and rough seas
    will gradually diminish Tue night through Wed as the front
    weakens. Broad high pressure will develop across the central and
    western Atlantic Wed through Fri and bring a return to fresh to
    strong trades across the central Caribbean.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about
    Significant Swell in the western and central Atlantic.

    A strong cold front enters the basin near 31N60W and continues
    southwestward to the NW coast of Haiti then through the Windward
    passage. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms prevail
    within 90 nm E of the front. Strong NW winds and very rough seas
    in NW swell are N of 25N and W of the front. Moderate to fresh NW
    to N winds, and moderate to rough seas are elsewhere W of the
    front. Fresh to strong winds, and rough seas are N of 26N and E of
    the front to 53W. Farther east, a 1025 mb high is centered near
    31N41W and extend a ridge to near 23N65W. Light to gentle winds
    are in the vicinity of the high center. Fresh to strong trade winds
    prevail S of 23N to the south of the high center, due to the
    pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure in the
    vicinity of the ITCZ. Seas in this region are 7 to 10 ft in NW to
    N swell. W of the ridge, Strong S to SW winds prevail N of 25N
    between 53W and the cold front, where seas are 7 to 12 ft in mixed
    swell. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere, with moderate
    to rough seas.

    For the forecast west of 55W, strong NW winds and very rough seas
    in NW swell will continue behind the front through this morning
    before winds begin to slowly diminish. The front is expected to
    move southeastward and weaken, reaching from 31N58W to the north-
    central coast of the Dominican Republic Tue evening, then stall
    from near 29N55W to the NE Dominican Republic Wed, before drifting
    W and dissipating Thu. High pressure will shift into the Atlantic
    behind the front Tue night through Wed, and develop a broad ridge
    across the region Thu through Sat.

    $$
    Stripling
Tropical Weather Discussion
  • Tue, 24 Feb 2026 10:31:26 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 241031
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1215 UTC Tue Feb 24 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Large Northwest Swell Western Atlantic:
    Large NW swell has been generated by a deep low pressure area
    (previously a hurricane force low and now a storm force low) over
    the NW Atlantic offshore of the Canadian Maritimes. This NW swell
    is propagating across the NW discussion waters with and behind a
    strong cold front, with very rough seas of 12-17 ft over the
    waters N of a line from 31N62W to 26N74W to 31N77W. This large
    swell producing seas of 12 ft and higher will continue to
    propagate southeastward over the waters N of 25N, reaching as far
    east as 50W through Wed morning before subsiding below 12 ft.

    Large Northwest Swell Central Atlantic: Large NW to N swell,
    generated by a former storm force low NE of the area (currently a
    gale force low) is bringing very rough seas of 12-18 ft over the
    waters N of a line from 31N48W to 26N48W to 25N40W to 30N30W.
    This swell will shift S and SE through midweek to cover the
    waters N of 16N and E of 45W through Wed morning before subsiding
    below 12 ft Wed afternoon.

    Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
    National Hurricane Center at website:
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
    information.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N16W and continues southwestward to
    04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to the coast of Brazil near
    01.5S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 03N between
    06W and 51W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A 1030 mb high pressure system over the Mississippi Valley
    extends southward into the Gulf of America and southeastward
    across S Florida and the Bahamas, behind the recent cold front,
    resulting in fresh to locally strong northerly winds and rough
    seas to 12 ft in N swell east of 90W. Moderate to locally fresh
    NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft in NE swell are found across the
    SW Gulf and into the Bay of Campeche. Moderate or weaker winds and
    slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. The dry and cold
    continental airmass moving across the basin sustain widespread
    stratocumulus clouds south of 26N, while generally clear skies
    prevail north of 26N. Moisture banking along the eastern flanks
    of the Sierra Madre Oriental may result in locally heavy rainfall.

    For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to subside from NW
    to SE through this evening, as the high pressure shifts E-SE and
    into the Atlantic by early Wed. Fresh to strong southerly return
    flow will develop across the NW Gulf Tue night and expand across
    the SW and central Gulf Wed into Thu, ahead of the next cold front
    forecast to enter the NW Gulf Thu night. This next front is
    expected to stall from the Florida Big Bend to the central Mexican
    coastal waters Sat.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A cold front extends from NW Haiti through the Windward Passage to
    the east-central coast of Nicaragua. Scattered showers continue near
    the front. Moisture banking against the mountainous terrain in
    Central America may result in locally heavy rainfall across
    Honduras, Guatemala and Belize. A pre-frontal trough is producing
    some showers over Hispaniola. Fresh to strong northerly winds and
    rough seas to 12 ft are occurring behind the front. Meanwhile,
    moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are
    present in the remainder of the basin south of 15N. Moderate or
    weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent north of 15N.

    For the forecast, the cold front will slide southeastward,
    reaching north-central Hispaniola to SE Nicaragua Tue afternoon,
    before stalling on Wed from eastern Hispaniola to near the
    Nicaragua- Costa Rica border. The strong winds and rough seas
    will gradually diminish Tue night through Wed as the front
    weakens. Broad high pressure will develop across the central and
    western Atlantic Wed through Fri and bring a return to fresh to
    strong trades across the central Caribbean.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about
    Significant Swell in the western and central Atlantic.

    A strong cold front enters the basin near 31N60W and continues
    southwestward to the NW coast of Haiti then through the Windward
    passage. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms prevail
    within 90 nm E of the front. Strong NW winds and very rough seas
    in NW swell are N of 25N and W of the front. Moderate to fresh NW
    to N winds, and moderate to rough seas are elsewhere W of the
    front. Fresh to strong winds, and rough seas are N of 26N and E of
    the front to 53W. Farther east, a 1025 mb high is centered near
    31N41W and extend a ridge to near 23N65W. Light to gentle winds
    are in the vicinity of the high center. Fresh to strong trade winds
    prevail S of 23N to the south of the high center, due to the
    pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure in the
    vicinity of the ITCZ. Seas in this region are 7 to 10 ft in NW to
    N swell. W of the ridge, Strong S to SW winds prevail N of 25N
    between 53W and the cold front, where seas are 7 to 12 ft in mixed
    swell. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere, with moderate
    to rough seas.

    For the forecast west of 55W, strong NW winds and very rough seas
    in NW swell will continue behind the front through this morning
    before winds begin to slowly diminish. The front is expected to
    move southeastward and weaken, reaching from 31N58W to the north-
    central coast of the Dominican Republic Tue evening, then stall
    from near 29N55W to the NE Dominican Republic Wed, before drifting
    W and dissipating Thu. High pressure will shift into the Atlantic
    behind the front Tue night through Wed, and develop a broad ridge
    across the region Thu through Sat.

    $$
    Stripling
Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
  • Mon, 23 Feb 2026 18:20:03 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
    000
    NOUS42 KNHC 231819
    REPRPD
    WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
    CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
    0120 PM EST MON 23 FEBRUARY 2026
    SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
    VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z FEBRUARY 2026
    WSPOD NUMBER.....25-085

    I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77
    A. 25/0000Z
    B. AFXXX 15WSC IOP39
    C. 24/1800Z
    D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED
    BY: 20.0N 160.0W, 35.0N 160.0W, 35.0N 135.0W, AND 20.0N
    135.0W
    E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 24/2030Z TO 25/0230Z

    2. FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
    A. 25/0000Z
    B. NOAA9 39WSE IOP39
    C. 24/1930Z
    D. 24 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 70 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED
    BY: 25.0N 120.0W, 25.0N 145.0W, 45.0N 145.0W, AND 45.0N
    120.0W
    E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 24/2030Z TO 25/0230Z

    3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY
    FLY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR
    THE 26/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
    4. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND
    THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC
    RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE
    27/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

    $$
    KAL

    NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
  • Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf
Share this page