2025 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models

Track The Tropics
SUPPORT TRACK THE TROPICS Over the last decade plus if you appreciate the information and tracking I provide during the season along with this website which donations help keep it running please consider a one time... recurring or yearly donation if you are able to help me out...

Venmo: @TrackTheTropicsLouisiana
Website: TrackTheTropics.com/DONATE

Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2026 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Share this page
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 7 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Mon, 12 Jan 2026 08:42:10 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 120842
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1215 UTC Mon Jan 12 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0800 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is moving across the
    Gulf from near S Florida to N of the Yucatan Channel to the
    central Bay of Campeche where it is stalling. Gale force NW to N
    winds to 40 kt with seas to 18 ft are occurring over the SW Gulf
    in the wake of the front. Strong northerly winds and moderate to
    rough seas follow the front elsewhere. The front will weaken and
    stall from western Cuba to the northern Yucatan peninsula to the
    eastern Bay of Campeche by Tue morning. Conditions in the SW Gulf
    will gradually improve tonight into Tue. Please read the latest
    High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
    website - https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
    details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough exits the coast of Guinea near 10.5N14W and
    continues to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to the coast of
    northern Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
    from 01N to 09N between 22W and 45W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
    Warning.

    A cold front is moving across the Gulf from near S Florida to N
    of the Yucatan Channel to the central Bay of Campeche where it is
    stalling. Gale force NW to N winds to 40 kt with seas to 18 ft are
    occurring over the SW Gulf in the wake of the front. Strong
    northerly winds and moderate to rough seas follow the front
    elsewhere. Moderate to fresh NE winds and slight to moderate seas
    are analyzed ahead of the front in the far SE Gulf and the
    Straits of Florida.

    For the forecast, the front will weaken and stall from western
    Cuba to the northern Yucatan peninsula to the eastern Bay of
    Campeche by Tue morning. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually
    improve tonight into Tue. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to
    moderate seas will prevail across the basin through early Wed. The
    next cold front could impact the basin with increasing winds and
    building seas by Wed night, with that front rapidly shifting SE of
    the basin Thu. Conditions should improve by the end of the week.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A strong and broad ridge north of the Caribbean continues to
    support strong to near gale-force NE-E winds and rough seas in the
    south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE-E
    breezes and moderate seas prevail. No significant convection is
    noted in the Caribbean.

    For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will
    pulse offshore of NW Colombia through much of the week due to the
    pressure gradient between high pressure NE of the region and low
    pressure over northern Colombia, resulting in rough seas. Pulsing
    moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast south of Hispaniola,
    in the Windward passage, and in the lee of Cuba through the early
    part of the week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will
    prevail. A weakening stationary front is forecast to extend across
    western Cuba and the northern Yucatan peninsula by Tue morning
    while gradually dissipating. Another cold front may move into the
    NW part of the basin Thu.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A strong cold front extends from just W of Bermuda to the
    northern Bahamas and S Florida with fresh to strong winds and
    rough to very rough seas building behind it. The remainder of the
    SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under a weak pressure gradient
    that supports moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

    A surface trough is analyzed at 64W and north of 20N. The
    interaction of this feature and divergence aloft sustains
    scattered showers east of the boundary. The remainder of the
    tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical
    ridge over the far NE Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
    winds and seas of 4-8 ft are noted between 42W and 55W. Moderate
    to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 5-9 ft are found south of
    25N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
    moderate seas prevail.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the front will become stationary as
    it dissipates on Tue. Then, high pressure will follow the front.
    Looking ahead, the next cold front may enter the NW waters by Wed
    night, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas late Thu
    night. At that time, gale conditions are possible in the wake of
    the front near 31N with building seas across the waters.

    $$
    Lewitsky
Tropical Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 12 Jan 2026 08:42:10 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 120842
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1215 UTC Mon Jan 12 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0800 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is moving across the
    Gulf from near S Florida to N of the Yucatan Channel to the
    central Bay of Campeche where it is stalling. Gale force NW to N
    winds to 40 kt with seas to 18 ft are occurring over the SW Gulf
    in the wake of the front. Strong northerly winds and moderate to
    rough seas follow the front elsewhere. The front will weaken and
    stall from western Cuba to the northern Yucatan peninsula to the
    eastern Bay of Campeche by Tue morning. Conditions in the SW Gulf
    will gradually improve tonight into Tue. Please read the latest
    High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
    website - https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
    details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough exits the coast of Guinea near 10.5N14W and
    continues to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to the coast of
    northern Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
    from 01N to 09N between 22W and 45W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
    Warning.

    A cold front is moving across the Gulf from near S Florida to N
    of the Yucatan Channel to the central Bay of Campeche where it is
    stalling. Gale force NW to N winds to 40 kt with seas to 18 ft are
    occurring over the SW Gulf in the wake of the front. Strong
    northerly winds and moderate to rough seas follow the front
    elsewhere. Moderate to fresh NE winds and slight to moderate seas
    are analyzed ahead of the front in the far SE Gulf and the
    Straits of Florida.

    For the forecast, the front will weaken and stall from western
    Cuba to the northern Yucatan peninsula to the eastern Bay of
    Campeche by Tue morning. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually
    improve tonight into Tue. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to
    moderate seas will prevail across the basin through early Wed. The
    next cold front could impact the basin with increasing winds and
    building seas by Wed night, with that front rapidly shifting SE of
    the basin Thu. Conditions should improve by the end of the week.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A strong and broad ridge north of the Caribbean continues to
    support strong to near gale-force NE-E winds and rough seas in the
    south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE-E
    breezes and moderate seas prevail. No significant convection is
    noted in the Caribbean.

    For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will
    pulse offshore of NW Colombia through much of the week due to the
    pressure gradient between high pressure NE of the region and low
    pressure over northern Colombia, resulting in rough seas. Pulsing
    moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast south of Hispaniola,
    in the Windward passage, and in the lee of Cuba through the early
    part of the week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will
    prevail. A weakening stationary front is forecast to extend across
    western Cuba and the northern Yucatan peninsula by Tue morning
    while gradually dissipating. Another cold front may move into the
    NW part of the basin Thu.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A strong cold front extends from just W of Bermuda to the
    northern Bahamas and S Florida with fresh to strong winds and
    rough to very rough seas building behind it. The remainder of the
    SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under a weak pressure gradient
    that supports moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

    A surface trough is analyzed at 64W and north of 20N. The
    interaction of this feature and divergence aloft sustains
    scattered showers east of the boundary. The remainder of the
    tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical
    ridge over the far NE Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
    winds and seas of 4-8 ft are noted between 42W and 55W. Moderate
    to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 5-9 ft are found south of
    25N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
    moderate seas prevail.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the front will become stationary as
    it dissipates on Tue. Then, high pressure will follow the front.
    Looking ahead, the next cold front may enter the NW waters by Wed
    night, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas late Thu
    night. At that time, gale conditions are possible in the wake of
    the front near 31N with building seas across the waters.

    $$
    Lewitsky
Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
  • Sun, 11 Jan 2026 16:35:28 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
    530
    NOUS42 KNHC 111635
    REPRPD
    WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
    CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
    1135 AM EST SUN 11 JANUARY 2026
    SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
    VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z JANUARY 2026
    WSPOD NUMBER.....25-042

    I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    $$
    WJM

    NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
  • Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf
Share this page