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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Mon, 10 Aug 2026 04:13:00 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
172
AXNT20 KNHC 100412
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Aug 10 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 24W and extends from 06N to 18N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is ahead of the wave axis, from 07.5N to 12.5N between
24W and 30W. Low pressure has formed in the lower levels ahead of
this wave, where the convection is occurring. This system is
forecast to move slowly westward and merge with the next tropical
wave to move off of Africa in a couple of days. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development by
midweek. A tropical depression could form during the latter half
of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
across the central tropical Atlantic. The latest Tropical Weather
Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation through 7 days.
A tropical wave is near 41W-42W from 07N to 17N, moving west at
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 07.5N to 14.5N between 36W and 49W. Some gradual development
of this wave is possible during the early to middle part of this
week while it moves quickly westward across the central tropical
Atlantic. Upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive
for development later in the week when the system approaches the
Lesser Antilles. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this
system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.
A tropical wave is along 52W from 13N to 24N, moving west at
15 kt. Saharan Air surrounds this wave, and thus no significant
convection currently accompanies the wave. A swirl of low clouds
is just ahead of the wave axis near 15N53W.
A tropical wave is along 71W and extends from the western
Dominican Republic to northwest Venezuela, moving west at 15 to
20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted behind the
wave, from 14N to 18.5N between 63W and 70W, including the Mona
Passage and coastal portions of the Dominican Republic. A cluster
of moderate convection is also noted across north-central Venezuela.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 11N24W to 10.5N45W.
The ITCZ extends from 11N46W to 11.5N62W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 11.5N between 36W and the coast of
Africa.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to dot the Gulf
waters, mainly near southwest Florida, the Yucatan Channel, and
over the NW part of the basin. A diffluent pattern aloft is
helping to induce this convective activity. Convection has also
flared-up over the Yucatan Peninsula and is slowly shifting
westward into the eastern Bay of Campeche. A surface ridge
extends from the Bermuda High west-southwestward across northern
Florida and across the northern Gulf along 29N. This pattern is
supporting mostly light to gentle winds and slight of 3 ft or less
over most of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are
occurring across the nearshore waters along the N and W coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula, W of a surface trough over the Peninsula.
Moderate easterly winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail across the
Straits of Florida.
For the forecast, the surface ridge extending across the northern
Gulf will dominate the general wind flow pattern across basin
well into the upcoming week, generally supporting gentle to
moderate E to SE winds north of 24N along with slight seas. Pulses
of fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula
and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night as a diurnal
surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across
the SW Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure located
just southwest of Bermuda and a 1007 mb Colombian low continues
to promote fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean
between 66W and 80W, with the strongest winds around 30 kt
offshore Colombia and inside the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 7 to
10 ft with these winds. Winds have increased to strong near the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic, near the Barahona
Peninsula, as a tropical wave is morning through the area.
Scattered moderate convection trails the wave, as described above.
Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds are E of 66W across the
eastern Caribbean behind the tropical wave. Seas are 4 to 6 ft
there. Fresh to strong NE winds are also present across the
Windward Passage, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate
trades prevail elsewhere across NW portions, with moderate seas.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave,
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are occurring over
south coastal portions of Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the Caribbean basin
will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-
central and portions of the SW basin will into the week. The
associated Atlantic ridge will gradually shift southward to near
28N through midweek maintaining strong to near-gale winds offshore
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Winds will
pulse up to fresh to strong speeds during the evenings and at
night in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the
forecast period. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail
elsewhere. The Atlantic ridge will shift farther southward later
this week, which may act to increase the trades again across the
basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Three tropical waves are moving westward across the Atlantic between
W Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The National Hurricane Center
is monitoring two areas with the potential of tropical cyclone
formation during the coming week. Refer to the tropical wave
section above for more details.
A weak trough offshore of the U.S. southeastern coast in
combination with ample deep moisture in place is helping to
support a showers and a few thunderstorms well offshore of
northern Florida, N of 29N between between 72W and 77W.
Otherwise, a ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic
forecast waters, centered on a 1023 mb Bermuda High, and a 1024 mb
high near 28N38W. A weakening stationary front extends into the
area along 31N48W and disrupts the ridge there between 45W and
55W. This ridge is promoting moderate to fresh trade winds south
of 24N and west of 30W, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to
fresh winds are near the tropical wave along 41W-42W. Moderate to
locally fresh N to NE winds and 5 to 9 ft seas extend from the
Canary Islands southwestward to near 19N. Elsewhere within the
ridge, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge will
shift gradually southward to along 28N through Tue. Fresh trades
will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward
Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each evening
and night. The ridge will sink a bit farther southward later next
week, which may result in stronger easterly winds.
Of note, weak low pressure across the eastern Atlantic is
forecast to move slowly westward, and merge with a tropical wave
exiting Africa in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be more conducive for development by midweek. A
tropical depression could form during the latter half of this week
while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance for tropical
development for this system within the next 7 days.
$$
Stripling
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Mon, 10 Aug 2026 04:13:00 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
172
AXNT20 KNHC 100412
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Aug 10 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 24W and extends from 06N to 18N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is ahead of the wave axis, from 07.5N to 12.5N between
24W and 30W. Low pressure has formed in the lower levels ahead of
this wave, where the convection is occurring. This system is
forecast to move slowly westward and merge with the next tropical
wave to move off of Africa in a couple of days. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development by
midweek. A tropical depression could form during the latter half
of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
across the central tropical Atlantic. The latest Tropical Weather
Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation through 7 days.
A tropical wave is near 41W-42W from 07N to 17N, moving west at
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 07.5N to 14.5N between 36W and 49W. Some gradual development
of this wave is possible during the early to middle part of this
week while it moves quickly westward across the central tropical
Atlantic. Upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive
for development later in the week when the system approaches the
Lesser Antilles. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this
system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.
A tropical wave is along 52W from 13N to 24N, moving west at
15 kt. Saharan Air surrounds this wave, and thus no significant
convection currently accompanies the wave. A swirl of low clouds
is just ahead of the wave axis near 15N53W.
A tropical wave is along 71W and extends from the western
Dominican Republic to northwest Venezuela, moving west at 15 to
20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted behind the
wave, from 14N to 18.5N between 63W and 70W, including the Mona
Passage and coastal portions of the Dominican Republic. A cluster
of moderate convection is also noted across north-central Venezuela.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 11N24W to 10.5N45W.
The ITCZ extends from 11N46W to 11.5N62W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 11.5N between 36W and the coast of
Africa.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to dot the Gulf
waters, mainly near southwest Florida, the Yucatan Channel, and
over the NW part of the basin. A diffluent pattern aloft is
helping to induce this convective activity. Convection has also
flared-up over the Yucatan Peninsula and is slowly shifting
westward into the eastern Bay of Campeche. A surface ridge
extends from the Bermuda High west-southwestward across northern
Florida and across the northern Gulf along 29N. This pattern is
supporting mostly light to gentle winds and slight of 3 ft or less
over most of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are
occurring across the nearshore waters along the N and W coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula, W of a surface trough over the Peninsula.
Moderate easterly winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail across the
Straits of Florida.
For the forecast, the surface ridge extending across the northern
Gulf will dominate the general wind flow pattern across basin
well into the upcoming week, generally supporting gentle to
moderate E to SE winds north of 24N along with slight seas. Pulses
of fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula
and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night as a diurnal
surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across
the SW Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure located
just southwest of Bermuda and a 1007 mb Colombian low continues
to promote fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean
between 66W and 80W, with the strongest winds around 30 kt
offshore Colombia and inside the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 7 to
10 ft with these winds. Winds have increased to strong near the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic, near the Barahona
Peninsula, as a tropical wave is morning through the area.
Scattered moderate convection trails the wave, as described above.
Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds are E of 66W across the
eastern Caribbean behind the tropical wave. Seas are 4 to 6 ft
there. Fresh to strong NE winds are also present across the
Windward Passage, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate
trades prevail elsewhere across NW portions, with moderate seas.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave,
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are occurring over
south coastal portions of Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the Caribbean basin
will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-
central and portions of the SW basin will into the week. The
associated Atlantic ridge will gradually shift southward to near
28N through midweek maintaining strong to near-gale winds offshore
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Winds will
pulse up to fresh to strong speeds during the evenings and at
night in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the
forecast period. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail
elsewhere. The Atlantic ridge will shift farther southward later
this week, which may act to increase the trades again across the
basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Three tropical waves are moving westward across the Atlantic between
W Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The National Hurricane Center
is monitoring two areas with the potential of tropical cyclone
formation during the coming week. Refer to the tropical wave
section above for more details.
A weak trough offshore of the U.S. southeastern coast in
combination with ample deep moisture in place is helping to
support a showers and a few thunderstorms well offshore of
northern Florida, N of 29N between between 72W and 77W.
Otherwise, a ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic
forecast waters, centered on a 1023 mb Bermuda High, and a 1024 mb
high near 28N38W. A weakening stationary front extends into the
area along 31N48W and disrupts the ridge there between 45W and
55W. This ridge is promoting moderate to fresh trade winds south
of 24N and west of 30W, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to
fresh winds are near the tropical wave along 41W-42W. Moderate to
locally fresh N to NE winds and 5 to 9 ft seas extend from the
Canary Islands southwestward to near 19N. Elsewhere within the
ridge, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge will
shift gradually southward to along 28N through Tue. Fresh trades
will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward
Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each evening
and night. The ridge will sink a bit farther southward later next
week, which may result in stronger easterly winds.
Of note, weak low pressure across the eastern Atlantic is
forecast to move slowly westward, and merge with a tropical wave
exiting Africa in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be more conducive for development by midweek. A
tropical depression could form during the latter half of this week
while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance for tropical
development for this system within the next 7 days.
$$
Stripling
Active Tropical Systems
- Tue, 11 Aug 2026 17:17:25 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 10 Aug 2026 08:50:07 GMT - Mon, 10 Aug 2026 05:17:25 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 100517
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave is located about midway between the coast of west Africa and
the Lesser Antilles. Some gradual development of this wave is
possible through mid-week while it moves quickly westward across the
central tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are expected to become
less conducive for development later in the week when the system
approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. As this system moves slowly westward, a tropical
wave currently over west Africa is expected to merge with it in a
couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more
conducive for development by midweek, and a tropical depression
could form during the latter half of this week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
Western Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles northwest of
Bermuda is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Some development of this system is possible during the next couple
of days while it moves quickly eastward, well to the north of
Bermuda across the western and central subtropical Atlantic. The
system is forecast to reach cooler waters later this week, ending
its chances of formation after Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sun, 09 Aug 2026 14:44:12 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 091444
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SUN 09 AUGUST 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z AUGUST 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-070
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION INTO
DEVELOPING SYSTEM NEAR 12.0N 53.0W FOR 12/1800Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND CP93 FOR 12/0000Z, DEPARTING PHJR
AT 11/1730Z.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK:
A. POSSIBLE MISSION INTO CP93 NEAR 14.0N 147.0W FOR 13/0000Z.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO CP93 FOR
13/0000Z.
$$
KAL
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf