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2026 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models

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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2026 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 7 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Sun, 05 Jul 2026 17:08:04 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 051707
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1815 UTC Sun Jul 5 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is along 25W from Cabo Verde southward to 03N,
    and is moving west at 15 kt. Convection is described in the
    Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

    An Atlantic tropical wave is near 35N from 04-17N, moving W at 15
    kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section
    below.

    An Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 02-17N, moving W at
    around 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ
    section below.

    A Caribbean tropical wave is near 75-76W, south of 20N, moving W
    at at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave axis.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N16W and continues
    southwestward to 10N19W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 10N19W
    to 08N25W, from 08N27W to 09N34W, from 09N37N to 09N43W, and from
    09N46W to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is active from
    05N to 12N between 25W and 55W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    The subtropical ridge extends across the Florida Peninsula and
    across the northern Gulf to the coast of Texas. Farther south, a
    weak trough is positioned over the Bay of Campeche. This pattern
    is supporting fresh NE winds off the west coast of the Yucatan
    Peninsula, as noted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass.
    Gentle to moderate breezes are observed elsewhere. Seas are
    generally 1-3 ft across the basin. Widely scattered moderate
    convection is active over the eastern Gulf at the base of an
    upper trough that extends over the Mississippi River valley.

    For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will continue to dominate
    the Gulf waters through the forecast period supporting gentle to
    moderate winds over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds
    over the eastern Gulf. The exception will be pulsing winds
    reaching fresh to locally strong speeds off the northwestern
    Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Wed. These winds are the result
    of local effects associated with a surface trough. Slight to
    moderate seas are expected basin-wide.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The subtropical ridge extending north of the area across the
    western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds
    across the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of
    Honduras, with strong E winds noted off northeast Colombia and
    northwest Venezuela, as confirmed in a recent scatterometer
    satellite pass. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere.
    Seas are 5-7 ft over the eastern and central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft
    elsewhere except 1-3 ft in the far northwest Caribbean. A mid to
    upper level trough extends from the western Atlantic across
    eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and toward Nicaragua. Upper level
    divergent flow along with convergent lower level trade wind flow
    is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms off the coasts
    of Nicaragua and Honduras.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
    ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to
    support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas
    over the central Caribbean through Thu night. The aerial extent of
    these winds will increase tonight into Mon. Expect winds to reach
    near- gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of
    Venezuela from today through Thu. Moderate to fresh trades will
    continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds
    will prevail over the NW part of the basin, except in the Gulf of
    Honduras where fresh to strong E to SE winds are forecast at night
    tonight through Tue. Otherwise, a tropical wave, with axis along
    75W will continue to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms
    over the central Caribbean waters today.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    The subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic north of 20N, and is
    anchored by 1025 mb high pressure centered near 29N38W. Scattered
    moderate convection is occurring along a surface trough analyzed
    from 31N53W to 29N72W. The pattern is supporting gentle to
    moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas along and west of the ridge axis,
    and moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-8 ft seas east
    and south of the ridge axis.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
    build westward into central Florida through Thu. This pattern
    will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N, and
    moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Locally strong winds are
    likely at night N of Hispaniola, including approaches to the
    Windward Passage, beginning tonight.

    $$
    Adams
Tropical Weather Discussion
  • Sun, 05 Jul 2026 17:08:04 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 051707
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1815 UTC Sun Jul 5 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is along 25W from Cabo Verde southward to 03N,
    and is moving west at 15 kt. Convection is described in the
    Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

    An Atlantic tropical wave is near 35N from 04-17N, moving W at 15
    kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section
    below.

    An Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 02-17N, moving W at
    around 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ
    section below.

    A Caribbean tropical wave is near 75-76W, south of 20N, moving W
    at at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave axis.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N16W and continues
    southwestward to 10N19W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 10N19W
    to 08N25W, from 08N27W to 09N34W, from 09N37N to 09N43W, and from
    09N46W to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is active from
    05N to 12N between 25W and 55W.

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    The subtropical ridge extends across the Florida Peninsula and
    across the northern Gulf to the coast of Texas. Farther south, a
    weak trough is positioned over the Bay of Campeche. This pattern
    is supporting fresh NE winds off the west coast of the Yucatan
    Peninsula, as noted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass.
    Gentle to moderate breezes are observed elsewhere. Seas are
    generally 1-3 ft across the basin. Widely scattered moderate
    convection is active over the eastern Gulf at the base of an
    upper trough that extends over the Mississippi River valley.

    For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will continue to dominate
    the Gulf waters through the forecast period supporting gentle to
    moderate winds over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds
    over the eastern Gulf. The exception will be pulsing winds
    reaching fresh to locally strong speeds off the northwestern
    Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Wed. These winds are the result
    of local effects associated with a surface trough. Slight to
    moderate seas are expected basin-wide.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The subtropical ridge extending north of the area across the
    western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds
    across the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of
    Honduras, with strong E winds noted off northeast Colombia and
    northwest Venezuela, as confirmed in a recent scatterometer
    satellite pass. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere.
    Seas are 5-7 ft over the eastern and central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft
    elsewhere except 1-3 ft in the far northwest Caribbean. A mid to
    upper level trough extends from the western Atlantic across
    eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and toward Nicaragua. Upper level
    divergent flow along with convergent lower level trade wind flow
    is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms off the coasts
    of Nicaragua and Honduras.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
    ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to
    support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas
    over the central Caribbean through Thu night. The aerial extent of
    these winds will increase tonight into Mon. Expect winds to reach
    near- gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of
    Venezuela from today through Thu. Moderate to fresh trades will
    continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds
    will prevail over the NW part of the basin, except in the Gulf of
    Honduras where fresh to strong E to SE winds are forecast at night
    tonight through Tue. Otherwise, a tropical wave, with axis along
    75W will continue to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms
    over the central Caribbean waters today.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    The subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic north of 20N, and is
    anchored by 1025 mb high pressure centered near 29N38W. Scattered
    moderate convection is occurring along a surface trough analyzed
    from 31N53W to 29N72W. The pattern is supporting gentle to
    moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas along and west of the ridge axis,
    and moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-8 ft seas east
    and south of the ridge axis.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
    build westward into central Florida through Thu. This pattern
    will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N, and
    moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Locally strong winds are
    likely at night N of Hispaniola, including approaches to the
    Windward Passage, beginning tonight.

    $$
    Adams
Active Tropical Systems
  • Tue, 07 Jul 2026 05:07:41 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
    No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 05 Jul 2026 18:01:16 GMT
  • Sun, 05 Jul 2026 17:07:41 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 051707
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

    $$
    Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
  • Sun, 05 Jul 2026 13:19:41 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
    000
    NOUS42 KNHC 051319
    REPRPD
    WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
    CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
    0920 AM EDT SUN 05 JULY 2026
    SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
    VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JULY 2026
    TCPOD NUMBER.....26-035

    I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    $$
    KAL

    NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
  • Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf
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