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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Thu, 16 Jul 2026 15:56:57 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (corrected) - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic) (corrected)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 161556 CCA
TWDAT
Correcting Gulf discussion
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jul 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low will support
fresh to strong NE-E winds in the south-central Caribbean during
the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force across the
waters N of Colombia each night through Sat night. Rough to very
rough seas will prevail with these winds.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 22W, south of
16N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 11N to 13N and between 20W and 23W and remains
disorganized. Some slow development is possible during the next
couple of days while the system moves generally west-northwestward
at about 10 mph. By this weekend, the system is forecast to move
into a less conducive environment, and further development is not
expected. The disturbance has a low chance of development over the
next 7 days.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted
with this wave at this time.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 21N17W and continues southwestward to a 1012 mb low
pres near 11N22W to 09N33W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to
08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 11N to 13N
and between 20W and 23W
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1021 mb high pressure system positioned over the northern Gulf
near 28N88W. A surface trough is analyzed over the Yucatan
Peninsula. The pattern is supporting moderate to fresh winds
across the southwest and south-central Gulf, where seas are 3-5
ft. Gentle to moderate breeze are noted elsewhere over the
western Gulf, with 2-4 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes are noted
over the north- central and northeast Gulf with 1-3 ft seas. A few
showers and thunderstorms are active off Tampa Bay, Florida, and
Tampico, Mexico.
For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore the
Yucatan Peninsula each night. Gentle to moderate winds, and
slight to moderate seas, will prevail elsewhere.
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form this
weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves slowly
northeastward over the northeastern Gulf and near the coast of the
southeastern United States early next week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean offshore
of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features section for
more details.
The Atlantic subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean
forces strong to gale easterly trade winds across the central
Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia and in
the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough to very rough seas are found in these
waters. Fresh NE winds and moderate seas are noted in the
Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present in the eastern
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.
A diffluent pattern aloft combined with abundant tropical moisture
is generating a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the
Gulf of Honduras. Trade wind convergence is supporting showers and
thunderstorms off western Panama. Gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and higher seas are likely with this convective
activity.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the basin and the Colombian low will support pulsing NE winds to
gale-force across the waters N of Colombia each night through
Sat night. Otherwise, strong to near-gale trade winds and rough
seas will prevail across the central Caribbean into early next
week. East winds will pulse fresh to strong each evening in the
Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A broad ridge extends across the Atlantic basin north of 15N,
anchored by 1025 mb centered near 30N40W. In addition to the
tropical waves south of the ridge, a weak surface trough extends
from the Leeward Islands to 21N55W. Another weak trough reaches
from the northern Bahamas to 31N75W, supporting showers and
thunderstorms near 30N75W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and
3-5 ft seas is noted along the ridge axis north of 15N and west of
35W, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4-6 ft are noted
elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will remain dominant through
the forecast period. The weather pattern will support moderate
to fresh trades south of 25N, with gentle winds to the north.
Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola
and in the Windward Passage.
$$
Christensen
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Thu, 16 Jul 2026 15:56:57 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (corrected) - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic) (corrected)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 161556 CCA
TWDAT
Correcting Gulf discussion
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jul 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low will support
fresh to strong NE-E winds in the south-central Caribbean during
the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force across the
waters N of Colombia each night through Sat night. Rough to very
rough seas will prevail with these winds.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 22W, south of
16N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 11N to 13N and between 20W and 23W and remains
disorganized. Some slow development is possible during the next
couple of days while the system moves generally west-northwestward
at about 10 mph. By this weekend, the system is forecast to move
into a less conducive environment, and further development is not
expected. The disturbance has a low chance of development over the
next 7 days.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted
with this wave at this time.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 21N17W and continues southwestward to a 1012 mb low
pres near 11N22W to 09N33W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to
08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 11N to 13N
and between 20W and 23W
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1021 mb high pressure system positioned over the northern Gulf
near 28N88W. A surface trough is analyzed over the Yucatan
Peninsula. The pattern is supporting moderate to fresh winds
across the southwest and south-central Gulf, where seas are 3-5
ft. Gentle to moderate breeze are noted elsewhere over the
western Gulf, with 2-4 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes are noted
over the north- central and northeast Gulf with 1-3 ft seas. A few
showers and thunderstorms are active off Tampa Bay, Florida, and
Tampico, Mexico.
For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore the
Yucatan Peninsula each night. Gentle to moderate winds, and
slight to moderate seas, will prevail elsewhere.
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form this
weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves slowly
northeastward over the northeastern Gulf and near the coast of the
southeastern United States early next week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean offshore
of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features section for
more details.
The Atlantic subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean
forces strong to gale easterly trade winds across the central
Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia and in
the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough to very rough seas are found in these
waters. Fresh NE winds and moderate seas are noted in the
Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present in the eastern
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.
A diffluent pattern aloft combined with abundant tropical moisture
is generating a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the
Gulf of Honduras. Trade wind convergence is supporting showers and
thunderstorms off western Panama. Gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and higher seas are likely with this convective
activity.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the basin and the Colombian low will support pulsing NE winds to
gale-force across the waters N of Colombia each night through
Sat night. Otherwise, strong to near-gale trade winds and rough
seas will prevail across the central Caribbean into early next
week. East winds will pulse fresh to strong each evening in the
Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A broad ridge extends across the Atlantic basin north of 15N,
anchored by 1025 mb centered near 30N40W. In addition to the
tropical waves south of the ridge, a weak surface trough extends
from the Leeward Islands to 21N55W. Another weak trough reaches
from the northern Bahamas to 31N75W, supporting showers and
thunderstorms near 30N75W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and
3-5 ft seas is noted along the ridge axis north of 15N and west of
35W, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4-6 ft are noted
elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will remain dominant through
the forecast period. The weather pattern will support moderate
to fresh trades south of 25N, with gentle winds to the north.
Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola
and in the Windward Passage.
$$
Christensen
Active Tropical Systems
- Fri, 17 Jul 2026 23:16:38 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 16 Jul 2026 16:02:09 GMT - Thu, 16 Jul 2026 11:16:38 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 161116
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands remain disorganized. Some slow
development is possible during the next day or two while the system
moves generally west-northwestward at about 10 mph. By this
weekend, the system is forecast to move into a less conducive
environment, and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Northeastern Gulf of America and Offshore of the Southeastern U.S.:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend over the
northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual development of this
system is possible while it moves slowly northeastward over the
northeastern Gulf and near the coast of the southeastern United
States early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:50:07 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 161250
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT THU 16 JULY 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z JULY 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-046
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf