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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sun, 23 Aug 2026 03:58:45 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
788
AXNT20 KNHC 230358
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave has its axis along 30W south of 19N moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is near the southern end of the wave axis from 05N to
10N between 28W and 35W.
Another tropical wave has its axis along 50W south of 19N moving
westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted with
this feature at this time.
A tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles, with axis along 62W
south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Convection is
limited near the wave axis at this time.
A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 84W south of
21N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave appears to enhance
convection over parts of Panama and Costa Rica.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa
near 20N17W and continues southwestward to 07N35W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N35W to 07N45W. Aside from the convection described
in the section above, scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the Yucatan
Peninsula. Elsewhere, a surface ridge continues to dominate the
Gulf waters, anchored by 1018 mb high pressure located near
25N95W. This pattern is supporting light to gentle winds and
slight seas, except for gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft
seas over the Bay of Campeche east of the trough in that area.
For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over the
basin into late next week, leading to gentle to moderate winds
and generally slight seas. A surface trough will generate fresh
winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early
evenings, which will pressure further offshore through the Bay
of Campeche during the overnight hours.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western
Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America
is sustaining fresh to strong trades primarily over the south-
central Caribbean. Seas up to 8 ft are with these trades as noted
in recent altimeter data. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate
seas are elsewhere, except in the NW Caribbean where light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are noted.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support
fresh to strong trades and rough seas over the south-central
Caribbean through next week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle
winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. A weak tropical
wave just west of the Lesser Antilles will move across the basin
during the upcoming week. Another weak tropical wave will enter
the eastern Caribbean Mon night and reach the western part of the
basin late in the week. Yet, another tropical wave may approach
the Lesser Antilles and far eastern Caribbean late on Wed and move
across the eastern Caribbean Thu and Thu night. The gradient
associated with these waves will lead to periods of enhanced winds
after their passages.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 mb high pressure centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda
near 28N74W dominates the western Atlantic west of 60W. A surface
trough extends from 31N79W to 24N79W. Showers and thunderstorms
are associated with this trough. Satellite derived wind data
indicate mainly gentle to moderate winds on either side of the
trough axis. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5
ft are noted off Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including approaches
to the Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail elsewhere W of 60W. Farther east, a weak
1018 mb low pressure is located near 30N59W. A trough extends
from the low center to near 28N61W based on scatterometer data.
Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are ahead of these
features. The remainder of the forecast area in under the
influence of broad 1028 mb high pressure centered north of the
region near 35N42W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh
NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas across the basin, with the
exception of fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas from 19N
to 23N E of 22W to the coasts of Mauritania and Western Sahara. A
cold front is approaching the Madeira Islands. Some shower
activity is along the frontal boundary.
For the forecast west of 55W, the low will drift westward
on Sun, then accelerate northward early next week. Otherwise,
high pressure will maintain light to gentle winds N of 23N through
the period. To the south, moderate to fresh trades will prevail,
with locally strong winds pulsing at times offshore Hispaniola and
into the Windward Passage. The northern portion of a tropical
wave will move across the waters S of about 23N and E of the
Bahamas early next week freshening the trades. By Wed, the
northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE
portion of the area, increasing the trades over those waters.
$$
ERA
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sun, 23 Aug 2026 03:58:45 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
788
AXNT20 KNHC 230358
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave has its axis along 30W south of 19N moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is near the southern end of the wave axis from 05N to
10N between 28W and 35W.
Another tropical wave has its axis along 50W south of 19N moving
westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted with
this feature at this time.
A tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles, with axis along 62W
south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Convection is
limited near the wave axis at this time.
A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 84W south of
21N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave appears to enhance
convection over parts of Panama and Costa Rica.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa
near 20N17W and continues southwestward to 07N35W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N35W to 07N45W. Aside from the convection described
in the section above, scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the Yucatan
Peninsula. Elsewhere, a surface ridge continues to dominate the
Gulf waters, anchored by 1018 mb high pressure located near
25N95W. This pattern is supporting light to gentle winds and
slight seas, except for gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft
seas over the Bay of Campeche east of the trough in that area.
For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over the
basin into late next week, leading to gentle to moderate winds
and generally slight seas. A surface trough will generate fresh
winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early
evenings, which will pressure further offshore through the Bay
of Campeche during the overnight hours.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western
Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America
is sustaining fresh to strong trades primarily over the south-
central Caribbean. Seas up to 8 ft are with these trades as noted
in recent altimeter data. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate
seas are elsewhere, except in the NW Caribbean where light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are noted.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support
fresh to strong trades and rough seas over the south-central
Caribbean through next week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle
winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. A weak tropical
wave just west of the Lesser Antilles will move across the basin
during the upcoming week. Another weak tropical wave will enter
the eastern Caribbean Mon night and reach the western part of the
basin late in the week. Yet, another tropical wave may approach
the Lesser Antilles and far eastern Caribbean late on Wed and move
across the eastern Caribbean Thu and Thu night. The gradient
associated with these waves will lead to periods of enhanced winds
after their passages.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 mb high pressure centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda
near 28N74W dominates the western Atlantic west of 60W. A surface
trough extends from 31N79W to 24N79W. Showers and thunderstorms
are associated with this trough. Satellite derived wind data
indicate mainly gentle to moderate winds on either side of the
trough axis. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5
ft are noted off Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including approaches
to the Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail elsewhere W of 60W. Farther east, a weak
1018 mb low pressure is located near 30N59W. A trough extends
from the low center to near 28N61W based on scatterometer data.
Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are ahead of these
features. The remainder of the forecast area in under the
influence of broad 1028 mb high pressure centered north of the
region near 35N42W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh
NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas across the basin, with the
exception of fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas from 19N
to 23N E of 22W to the coasts of Mauritania and Western Sahara. A
cold front is approaching the Madeira Islands. Some shower
activity is along the frontal boundary.
For the forecast west of 55W, the low will drift westward
on Sun, then accelerate northward early next week. Otherwise,
high pressure will maintain light to gentle winds N of 23N through
the period. To the south, moderate to fresh trades will prevail,
with locally strong winds pulsing at times offshore Hispaniola and
into the Windward Passage. The northern portion of a tropical
wave will move across the waters S of about 23N and E of the
Bahamas early next week freshening the trades. By Wed, the
northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE
portion of the area, increasing the trades over those waters.
$$
ERA
Active Tropical Systems
- Mon, 24 Aug 2026 11:32:51 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 23 Aug 2026 04:06:19 GMT - Sat, 22 Aug 2026 23:32:51 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 222332
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northeastern Atlantic:
A strong non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the
northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles west of the coast of
Portugal. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics tonight or on Sunday while it moves east-
southeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern
Spain. The opportunity for tropical or subtropical development
should end by Sunday night when the system encounters unfavorable
environmental conditions. For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Satellite imagery indicates that a broad area of low pressure has
formed in association with the shower and thunderstorm activity a
few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Additional slow
development of this system is possible during the next few days as
it drifts westward on Sunday and then accelerates northward early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday. An area of low pressure could form in association with the
wave soon after it moves off the coast. Environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle to latter portions of next week while the
system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at
https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt
$$
Forecaster Beven
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sat, 22 Aug 2026 13:55:41 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
138
NOUS42 KNHC 221355
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0955 AM EDT SAT 22 AUGUST 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z AUGUST 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-083
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: MISSIONS TASKED ON TCPOD 26-082 WILL STILL
FLY.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf