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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sat, 15 Aug 2026 17:12:28 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 151712
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Aug 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient remains tighten
between surface ridging over the W Atlantic and the Colombian
Low. This will again favor increasing winds in the south-central
Caribbean, supporting gale-force NE to E winds off Colombia this
evening and early Sunday morning. Expect rough to very rough seas
to near 15 ft near and downwind of these winds. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest NWS Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for further details.
Heavy Precipitation in South Central America and Colombia: Two
tropical waves will propagate into Central America over the next
several days, and will interact with enhanced divergence aloft and
an active monsoon trough. The first tropical wave is located over
the western Caribbean and over Panama. As this wave continues
westward, expect heavy precipitation to continue in Costa Rica,
the Darien region and into Choc-Colombia on Saturday and into
Sunday. By Sunday, the second tropical wave enters the west
Caribbean. Long fetch westerly flow is expected to occur from
Sunday into Monday, favoring an increase in available moisture
into Colombia. The heaviest precipitation is expected in Costa
Rica throughout the day on Saturday and into early Sunday morning,
while the heaviest precipitation in Panama, the Darien Region,
and Choc- Colombia occurs Sunday into Monday. There is some
uncertainty on how far south the heaviest rainfall could reach,
particularly due to how far south the available moisture and the
westerly flow enters the region. Please refer to the WPC
International Desk and local weather services for more
information.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 05N to 20N with axis near 27W,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N to 14N between 22W and 32W.
A tropical wave extends from 04N to 20N with axis near 41W,
moving west at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 14N between 40W and 49W.
A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean south of 20N with axis near
64W, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection extends from 10N to 17N between 60W and 67W.
A tropical wave is in the far W Caribbean with axis near 85W,
moving westward at about 15 kt. The wave appears to enhance
convection over Panama, Costa Rica, and far southern Nicaragua.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends
southwestward to 07N45W. Convection is discussed in the Tropical
Waves section above.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1021 mb high is centered over the northern Gulf, supporting
gentle to moderate winds across the forecast waters. Seas are 1-4
ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the Bay of Campeche
associated with a surface trough. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also developing across the central Gulf, driven
by convergent surface winds.
For the forecast, a high pressure center will remain over the
north-central Gulf this weekend, then moves SE while weakening
some by Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E
to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds
occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay
of Campeche each night, as a surface trough migrates from the
Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate
seas are expected through the forecast period. Looking ahead, by
midweek next week winds may increase to fresh speeds over the NW
and west-central Gulf as the pressure gradient tightens between
the high pressure and lower pressures over north-central Mexico.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning
in effect for the south-central basin. See the Tropical Waves
section for more info on winds and convection in the E Caribbean.
Outside of the gale area, fresh to strong trade winds and
rough seas are occurring over much of the Caribbean S of 18N.
Moderate to locally fresh E winds prevail over the remaining
waters with seas 3-6 ft. A surface trough along the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula supports scattered moderate convection from the
Gulf of Honduras up along the Yucatan coast.
For the forecast, a ridge N of the area combined with the
Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds over
most of the east and central Caribbean this weekend. Peak winds to
minimal gale-force are expected offshore Colombia tonight. A
strong tropical wave, with axis near 64W, Invest AL92 , will
continue to impact the eastern Caribbean today. Even though
development is highly unlikely, strong gusty winds, rough seas and
areas of heavy rain are still possible across portions of the
Lesser Antilles today. These weather conditions are forecast to
shift westward toward the central and SW Caribbean, including the
Greater Antilles and the Windward Passage from tonight through
Mon. Afterwards, the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward
the W Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high SE
of Bermuda. Along the coast of Western Sahara and through the
Canary Islands, NE winds are fresh with seas 6-7 ft. Elsewhere
the trades are moderate or weaker with seas 3-6 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring along and N of 30N between 55W
and 75W as a cold front approaches the discussion waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined
with the passage of two tropical through the Caribbean Sea will
cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N including the
approaches and in the Windward Passage from late this afternoon
through Sun night. Looking ahead, a cold front will slowly push
across the northern forecast border east of 70W late on Sun,
causing a wind shift to the NW and then N with fresh to locally
strong wind speeds ahead of the front on Sun and Mon north of 28N.
The front will stall on Monday before dissipating Tue.
$$
Adams
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sat, 15 Aug 2026 17:12:28 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 151712
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Aug 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient remains tighten
between surface ridging over the W Atlantic and the Colombian
Low. This will again favor increasing winds in the south-central
Caribbean, supporting gale-force NE to E winds off Colombia this
evening and early Sunday morning. Expect rough to very rough seas
to near 15 ft near and downwind of these winds. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest NWS Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for further details.
Heavy Precipitation in South Central America and Colombia: Two
tropical waves will propagate into Central America over the next
several days, and will interact with enhanced divergence aloft and
an active monsoon trough. The first tropical wave is located over
the western Caribbean and over Panama. As this wave continues
westward, expect heavy precipitation to continue in Costa Rica,
the Darien region and into Choc-Colombia on Saturday and into
Sunday. By Sunday, the second tropical wave enters the west
Caribbean. Long fetch westerly flow is expected to occur from
Sunday into Monday, favoring an increase in available moisture
into Colombia. The heaviest precipitation is expected in Costa
Rica throughout the day on Saturday and into early Sunday morning,
while the heaviest precipitation in Panama, the Darien Region,
and Choc- Colombia occurs Sunday into Monday. There is some
uncertainty on how far south the heaviest rainfall could reach,
particularly due to how far south the available moisture and the
westerly flow enters the region. Please refer to the WPC
International Desk and local weather services for more
information.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 05N to 20N with axis near 27W,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N to 14N between 22W and 32W.
A tropical wave extends from 04N to 20N with axis near 41W,
moving west at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 14N between 40W and 49W.
A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean south of 20N with axis near
64W, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection extends from 10N to 17N between 60W and 67W.
A tropical wave is in the far W Caribbean with axis near 85W,
moving westward at about 15 kt. The wave appears to enhance
convection over Panama, Costa Rica, and far southern Nicaragua.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends
southwestward to 07N45W. Convection is discussed in the Tropical
Waves section above.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1021 mb high is centered over the northern Gulf, supporting
gentle to moderate winds across the forecast waters. Seas are 1-4
ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the Bay of Campeche
associated with a surface trough. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also developing across the central Gulf, driven
by convergent surface winds.
For the forecast, a high pressure center will remain over the
north-central Gulf this weekend, then moves SE while weakening
some by Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E
to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds
occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay
of Campeche each night, as a surface trough migrates from the
Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate
seas are expected through the forecast period. Looking ahead, by
midweek next week winds may increase to fresh speeds over the NW
and west-central Gulf as the pressure gradient tightens between
the high pressure and lower pressures over north-central Mexico.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning
in effect for the south-central basin. See the Tropical Waves
section for more info on winds and convection in the E Caribbean.
Outside of the gale area, fresh to strong trade winds and
rough seas are occurring over much of the Caribbean S of 18N.
Moderate to locally fresh E winds prevail over the remaining
waters with seas 3-6 ft. A surface trough along the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula supports scattered moderate convection from the
Gulf of Honduras up along the Yucatan coast.
For the forecast, a ridge N of the area combined with the
Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds over
most of the east and central Caribbean this weekend. Peak winds to
minimal gale-force are expected offshore Colombia tonight. A
strong tropical wave, with axis near 64W, Invest AL92 , will
continue to impact the eastern Caribbean today. Even though
development is highly unlikely, strong gusty winds, rough seas and
areas of heavy rain are still possible across portions of the
Lesser Antilles today. These weather conditions are forecast to
shift westward toward the central and SW Caribbean, including the
Greater Antilles and the Windward Passage from tonight through
Mon. Afterwards, the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward
the W Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high SE
of Bermuda. Along the coast of Western Sahara and through the
Canary Islands, NE winds are fresh with seas 6-7 ft. Elsewhere
the trades are moderate or weaker with seas 3-6 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring along and N of 30N between 55W
and 75W as a cold front approaches the discussion waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined
with the passage of two tropical through the Caribbean Sea will
cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N including the
approaches and in the Windward Passage from late this afternoon
through Sun night. Looking ahead, a cold front will slowly push
across the northern forecast border east of 70W late on Sun,
causing a wind shift to the NW and then N with fresh to locally
strong wind speeds ahead of the front on Sun and Mon north of 28N.
The front will stall on Monday before dissipating Tue.
$$
Adams
Active Tropical Systems
- Mon, 17 Aug 2026 05:43:11 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 15 Aug 2026 18:08:21 GMT - Sat, 15 Aug 2026 17:43:11 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 151743
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic about
midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is
producing a limited area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The system is moving into an area of less favorable environmental
conditions and development of this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sat, 15 Aug 2026 15:00:38 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
579
NOUS42 KNHC 151500
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 15 AUGUST 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-076
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf