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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 10:59:51 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 161059
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Aug 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Heavy Precipitation in South Central America and Colombia: Two
tropical waves will propagate into Central America over the next
several days. The waves will interact with enhanced divergence
aloft and an active monsoon trough. The first wave is located
near 88W. As this wave continues westward, expect heavy
precipitation to continue in Costa Rica, the Darien region of
Panama and into Choco-Colombia into Sun. The second tropical wave
will enter the western Caribbean tonight into Mon and strengthen
the cyclonic rotation over Panama and Colombia, which will favor
an increase in available moisture into Colombia and moist easterly
flow into the eastern portion of Costa Rica. The heaviest
precipitation is expected in Costa Rica through this morning,
while the heaviest precipitation is expected in southwest Panama,
the Darien Region, and Choco-Colombia late today into Monday.
There is some uncertainty on how far south the heaviest rainfall
could reach, particularly due to how far south the available
moisture and the westerly flow enters the region.
Please refer to the WPC International Desk and local weather
services for more information.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is west of the Cape Verde Islands extending from
07N to 19N with axis near 31W, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 09N to 15N between 25W and 37W.
A tropical wave is over the central waters, extending from 04N to
20N with axis near 47W, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 09N to 14N between 46W and 52W.
A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis near 69W
south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate tothe approaches to the
Windward Passagestrong convection is from 12N to 19N between 66W
and 73W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W, and extends
southwestward to 11N30W to 10N41W. The ITCZ begins near 09N48W
and continues to 07N58W. Aside from the convection discussed in
the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection
is offshore W Africa from 06N to 14N between 11W and 20W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1021 mb high is over the Florida Panhandle coastal waters
extending a ridge axis southward to 23N. A generally weak pressure
gradient supports light to gentle variable winds and slight seas N
of 23N. Over the SW Gulf, a surface trough moves across the Bay of
Campeche enhancing winds to moderate speeds and building seas from
slight to moderate. Scattered showers are offshore Veracruz, ahead
of the trough.
For the forecast, a center of high pressure will remain over the
north-central Gulf through Mon, then moves toward the SE Gulf by
Tue while weakening some. This pattern will continue to support
mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with
pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan
Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night, as a surface
trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW
Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast
period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The main feature over the basin is a tropical wave moving across
Hispaniola and central Caribbean this morning, which is bringging
strong winds, rough seas and heavy showers to this region.
Scattered moderate convection is across the Costa Rica and Panama
offshores associated with the eastern extension of the E Pacific
monsoon. Fresh to strong trade winds are across much of the basin
along with moderate to rough seas, except for moderate to fresh
NE to E winds over the NW Caribbean where seas are moderate. This
is due to a relatively strong gradient of pressure over the region
influenced by high pressure E of the Bahamas. This is also
accelerating the winds across the Windward Passage to strong
speeds, which has built seas to 9 ft.
For the forecast, surface ridging N of the area combined with the
Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds over
most of the east, central and SW Caribbean through this evening.
A strong tropical wave, with axis near 68W, will impact the
central Caribbean today through Mon. Fresh to strong winds,
moderate to rough seas and locally heavy rain will be associated
with the wave, forecast to reach the western part of the basin Mon
night into Tue. Another tropical wave will approach the Leeward
Islands by Tue.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The subtropical Atlantic waters remain under the influence of the
Bermuda-Azores High, which is supporting mainly moderate or weaker
winds, except across the Great Bahama Bank, the approaches to the
Windward Passage, and the adjacent waters of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola S of 23N where winds are moderate to fresh from the E,
except locally strong in the the approaches to the Windward
Passage. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are also ongoing over the
NE offshore waters N of 28N and E of 74W ahead of an approaching
cold front which is also generating scattered showers and tstms
over this region. Moderate seas are across the western, central
and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined
with the passage of a tropical wave through the Caribbean Sea will
cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N including the
approaches and in the Windward Passage through tonight. Looking
ahead, a cold front will slowly push across the northern forecast
border east of 70W late today, and move across the northern
forecast waters on Mon while dissipating into a trough by Tue.
Fresh to strong SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front and
E of 70W today and tonight.
$$
Ramos
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 10:59:51 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 161059
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Aug 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Heavy Precipitation in South Central America and Colombia: Two
tropical waves will propagate into Central America over the next
several days. The waves will interact with enhanced divergence
aloft and an active monsoon trough. The first wave is located
near 88W. As this wave continues westward, expect heavy
precipitation to continue in Costa Rica, the Darien region of
Panama and into Choco-Colombia into Sun. The second tropical wave
will enter the western Caribbean tonight into Mon and strengthen
the cyclonic rotation over Panama and Colombia, which will favor
an increase in available moisture into Colombia and moist easterly
flow into the eastern portion of Costa Rica. The heaviest
precipitation is expected in Costa Rica through this morning,
while the heaviest precipitation is expected in southwest Panama,
the Darien Region, and Choco-Colombia late today into Monday.
There is some uncertainty on how far south the heaviest rainfall
could reach, particularly due to how far south the available
moisture and the westerly flow enters the region.
Please refer to the WPC International Desk and local weather
services for more information.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is west of the Cape Verde Islands extending from
07N to 19N with axis near 31W, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 09N to 15N between 25W and 37W.
A tropical wave is over the central waters, extending from 04N to
20N with axis near 47W, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 09N to 14N between 46W and 52W.
A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis near 69W
south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate tothe approaches to the
Windward Passagestrong convection is from 12N to 19N between 66W
and 73W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W, and extends
southwestward to 11N30W to 10N41W. The ITCZ begins near 09N48W
and continues to 07N58W. Aside from the convection discussed in
the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection
is offshore W Africa from 06N to 14N between 11W and 20W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1021 mb high is over the Florida Panhandle coastal waters
extending a ridge axis southward to 23N. A generally weak pressure
gradient supports light to gentle variable winds and slight seas N
of 23N. Over the SW Gulf, a surface trough moves across the Bay of
Campeche enhancing winds to moderate speeds and building seas from
slight to moderate. Scattered showers are offshore Veracruz, ahead
of the trough.
For the forecast, a center of high pressure will remain over the
north-central Gulf through Mon, then moves toward the SE Gulf by
Tue while weakening some. This pattern will continue to support
mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with
pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan
Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night, as a surface
trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW
Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast
period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The main feature over the basin is a tropical wave moving across
Hispaniola and central Caribbean this morning, which is bringging
strong winds, rough seas and heavy showers to this region.
Scattered moderate convection is across the Costa Rica and Panama
offshores associated with the eastern extension of the E Pacific
monsoon. Fresh to strong trade winds are across much of the basin
along with moderate to rough seas, except for moderate to fresh
NE to E winds over the NW Caribbean where seas are moderate. This
is due to a relatively strong gradient of pressure over the region
influenced by high pressure E of the Bahamas. This is also
accelerating the winds across the Windward Passage to strong
speeds, which has built seas to 9 ft.
For the forecast, surface ridging N of the area combined with the
Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds over
most of the east, central and SW Caribbean through this evening.
A strong tropical wave, with axis near 68W, will impact the
central Caribbean today through Mon. Fresh to strong winds,
moderate to rough seas and locally heavy rain will be associated
with the wave, forecast to reach the western part of the basin Mon
night into Tue. Another tropical wave will approach the Leeward
Islands by Tue.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The subtropical Atlantic waters remain under the influence of the
Bermuda-Azores High, which is supporting mainly moderate or weaker
winds, except across the Great Bahama Bank, the approaches to the
Windward Passage, and the adjacent waters of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola S of 23N where winds are moderate to fresh from the E,
except locally strong in the the approaches to the Windward
Passage. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are also ongoing over the
NE offshore waters N of 28N and E of 74W ahead of an approaching
cold front which is also generating scattered showers and tstms
over this region. Moderate seas are across the western, central
and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined
with the passage of a tropical wave through the Caribbean Sea will
cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N including the
approaches and in the Windward Passage through tonight. Looking
ahead, a cold front will slowly push across the northern forecast
border east of 70W late today, and move across the northern
forecast waters on Mon while dissipating into a trough by Tue.
Fresh to strong SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front and
E of 70W today and tonight.
$$
Ramos
Active Tropical Systems
- Mon, 17 Aug 2026 23:40:47 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 16 Aug 2026 14:40:13 GMT - Sun, 16 Aug 2026 11:40:47 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
535
ABNT20 KNHC 161140
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 13:24:49 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 161324
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT SUN 16 AUGUST 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-077
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf