SHOW ME SOME LOVE AND SUPPORT
Website: TrackTheTropics.com/DONATE
Venmo: @TrackTheTropicsLouisiana
Cash App: Cash.App/$TrackTheTropics
Subscribe: FB.com/TrackTheTropics
MAIN DONATION PAGEWebsite: TrackTheTropics.com/DONATE
Venmo: @TrackTheTropicsLouisiana
Cash App: Cash.App/$TrackTheTropics
Subscribe: FB.com/TrackTheTropics
2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Fri, 19 Jun 2026 05:08:27 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 190508
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jun 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 26.5W, south
of 17N, moving westward at around 10-15 kt. Any nearby convection
is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.
Another Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 47W, south of
17N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is
discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 65W, south
of 19N near the Anegada Passage to central Venezuela, moving
westward at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
S of 14N between 62W and 68W.
The western Caribbean tropical wave that was mentioned in the
previous discussion is crossing Central America and moving into
the Eastern Pacific. Please refer to the Eastern Pacific Tropical
Weather Discussion for information on this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa
near 18N16W and extends SW to near 06N28W. The ITCZ extends from
06N28W to 06.5N46W where it becomes ill-defined due to a tropical
wave to the west. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen
from 03N to 11N and E of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 02N to 10N between 25W and 45W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A ridge extends from subtropical high centered in the Atlantic to
across Florida and the Gulf along 26N, with a surface trough
emerging off the western Yucatan Peninsula. The pressure gradient
between these features is supporting fresh to strong winds across
much of the Gulf. Seas are in the 4-7 ft over much of the Gulf,
reaching 8 ft off the coast of Louisiana to the western Florida
Panhandle.
For the forecast, the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure
extends westward across Florida and to the central Gulf. The
pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower
pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico will generally
support mostly fresh southerly winds over the western and central
Gulf, and gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds over the eastern
Gulf through Fri. Winds over the western and central Gulf will
change little through early Mon, then diminish to gentle to
moderate speeds afterward. Winds over the eastern Gulf become
light to gentle in speeds beginning Fri night as weak high
pressure settles over the eastern Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on
convection associated with a wave in the eastern Caribbean.
The broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends
westward along 27N-28N and across central Florida. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low is supporting
fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean and the
Gulf of Honduras, where seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to
fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail in the eastern and NW
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-6 ft are across
the remainder of the Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are ongoing in the central Caribbean to the north of
the Colombia low.
For the forecast, high pressure over the Atlantic will change
little into next week. The pressure gradient between the high
pressure and relatively lower pressure to its south will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the
central Caribbean through the forecast period, with highest winds
and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at
fresh to strong speeds and moderate to rough seas are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Mon, pulsing briefly to near
gale- force tonight and Fri night. Moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds are expected elsewhere from 12N to 18N west of 80W
through Mon night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A frontal remnant trough extends from 31N30W to 26N44W. No
significant convection is seen near the trough. The rest of the
discussion waters N of 20N is dominated by high pressure anchored
by a 1024 mb subtropical high centered near 27N59W. Moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across much of the Atlantic
S of 20N as well as between the Bahamas and Cuba, with gentle to
moderate or weaker E winds and 3-6 ft seas to the N of 20N.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure across the basin will
begin to shift slightly eastward Fri night as a cold front moves
across the southeastern U.S. The front will move offshore
northeast Florida during the weekend, then stall and weaken. Fresh
to strong southwest winds are expected north of 30N and east to
near 72W through Fri night. Moderate to fresh nightly pulsing
fresh to strong winds south of 22N will continue into early next
week.
$$
Adams
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Fri, 19 Jun 2026 05:08:27 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 190508
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jun 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 26.5W, south
of 17N, moving westward at around 10-15 kt. Any nearby convection
is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.
Another Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 47W, south of
17N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is
discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 65W, south
of 19N near the Anegada Passage to central Venezuela, moving
westward at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
S of 14N between 62W and 68W.
The western Caribbean tropical wave that was mentioned in the
previous discussion is crossing Central America and moving into
the Eastern Pacific. Please refer to the Eastern Pacific Tropical
Weather Discussion for information on this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa
near 18N16W and extends SW to near 06N28W. The ITCZ extends from
06N28W to 06.5N46W where it becomes ill-defined due to a tropical
wave to the west. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen
from 03N to 11N and E of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 02N to 10N between 25W and 45W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A ridge extends from subtropical high centered in the Atlantic to
across Florida and the Gulf along 26N, with a surface trough
emerging off the western Yucatan Peninsula. The pressure gradient
between these features is supporting fresh to strong winds across
much of the Gulf. Seas are in the 4-7 ft over much of the Gulf,
reaching 8 ft off the coast of Louisiana to the western Florida
Panhandle.
For the forecast, the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure
extends westward across Florida and to the central Gulf. The
pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower
pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico will generally
support mostly fresh southerly winds over the western and central
Gulf, and gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds over the eastern
Gulf through Fri. Winds over the western and central Gulf will
change little through early Mon, then diminish to gentle to
moderate speeds afterward. Winds over the eastern Gulf become
light to gentle in speeds beginning Fri night as weak high
pressure settles over the eastern Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on
convection associated with a wave in the eastern Caribbean.
The broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends
westward along 27N-28N and across central Florida. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low is supporting
fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean and the
Gulf of Honduras, where seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to
fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail in the eastern and NW
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-6 ft are across
the remainder of the Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are ongoing in the central Caribbean to the north of
the Colombia low.
For the forecast, high pressure over the Atlantic will change
little into next week. The pressure gradient between the high
pressure and relatively lower pressure to its south will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the
central Caribbean through the forecast period, with highest winds
and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at
fresh to strong speeds and moderate to rough seas are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Mon, pulsing briefly to near
gale- force tonight and Fri night. Moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds are expected elsewhere from 12N to 18N west of 80W
through Mon night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A frontal remnant trough extends from 31N30W to 26N44W. No
significant convection is seen near the trough. The rest of the
discussion waters N of 20N is dominated by high pressure anchored
by a 1024 mb subtropical high centered near 27N59W. Moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across much of the Atlantic
S of 20N as well as between the Bahamas and Cuba, with gentle to
moderate or weaker E winds and 3-6 ft seas to the N of 20N.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure across the basin will
begin to shift slightly eastward Fri night as a cold front moves
across the southeastern U.S. The front will move offshore
northeast Florida during the weekend, then stall and weaken. Fresh
to strong southwest winds are expected north of 30N and east to
near 72W through Fri night. Moderate to fresh nightly pulsing
fresh to strong winds south of 22N will continue into early next
week.
$$
Adams
Active Tropical Systems
- Sat, 20 Jun 2026 17:03:30 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 19 Jun 2026 10:00:19 GMT - Fri, 19 Jun 2026 05:03:30 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 190503
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Offshore the East Coast of the United States (Remnants of Arthur):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
(the remnants of Arthur) are located over the southeastern United
States. The system is expected to emerge offshore the east coast of
the United States by this afternoon. Environmental conditions then
appear to be marginally conducive for some subtropical or tropical
development tonight or Saturday as the system moves northeastward
at around 20 mph across the Western Atlantic Ocean.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with the potential for
widespread and life-threatening flash flooding is likely across
portions of the Southeast United States during the next day or two.
Additional information on the rainfall potential can be found in
rainfall forecasts and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks from the Weather
Prediction Center online at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. More information
on this system, including Gale Warnings, is available in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Thu, 18 Jun 2026 14:25:47 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 181425
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1025 AM EDT THU 18 JUNE 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JUNE 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-018
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf