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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Thu, 18 Jun 2026 20:30:17 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 182030
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jun 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 25W, south of
18N to near the Cabo Verde Islands, moving westward at around
5-10 kt. Any nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH section below.
Another Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W, south of
18N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is
discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 64W, south
of 18N near the Anegada Passage to eastern Venezuela, moving
westward at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is discussed in
the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.
A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 85W, south of
19N across portions of eastern Honduras and central Nicaragua,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is
discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa
near 14N17W and extends SW to near 06.5N29W. The ITCZ extends
from 06.5N29W to 06N43W where it becomes ill-defined due to a
tropical wave to the west. Isolated to widely scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between
10W and 55W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A ridge extends from subtropical high centered in the Atlantic to
across Florida and the Gulf along 26N, with a surface trough
extending from eastern Mexico, across the SW Gulf. The pressure
gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong
winds across much of the Gulf. Seas are in the 4-7 ft over much of
the Gulf, reaching 8 ft off the coast of Louisiana to the western
Florida Panhandle.
For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into
the Gulf region. The pressure gradient between this system and
lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico will support
fresh to strong southerly winds over the western and central Gulf,
and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf through Fri.
Expect rough seas N of 27N and offshore of the Louisiana coast
this afternoon to shift eastward with these winds through tonight
before diminishing. Winds and seas will diminish basin-wide late
Fri through the weekend as weak high pressure settles over the
eastern Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends
westward along 27N-28N and across central Florida. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low is supporting
fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, where seas are
in the 6-8 ft range. Fresh to locally strong winds are over the
Gulf of Honduras as well as in the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are across the remainder of
the Caribbean. A large cluster of deep convection is noted south
of 14N between 74W and 82W with locally higher winds and seas
possible there.
For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will remain in place north
of the area through early next week, while weakening slightly Fri
night through Sun, as a frontal system clips the waters off NE
Florida. The pressure gradient south of the ridge will sustain
fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the
central Caribbean through the forecast period, with highest winds
and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at
fresh to strong speeds and moderate to rough seas are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Mon, pulsing briefly to near
gale- force tonight and Fri night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds
are expected elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean through
Mon night. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across SW
portions through Sat as an upper-level trough digs into the area.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A frontal trough extends from 31N33W to 25N44W. Isolated moderate
convection is in the vicinity of the trough. The rest of the
discussion waters N of 20N is dominated by high pressure anchored
by a 1024 mb subtropical high centered near 28N57W. Light to
gentle winds are in the vicinity of ridging extending from 31N22W
to the high to central Florida. Moderate to locally fresh winds
dominate the remainder of the discussion waters, except fresh to
strong N-NE winds from 18N to 24N between Africa and 21W. Seas
are in the 3-6 ft range, except locally to 7 ft south of 22N.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will remain in
place through early next week, while weakening slightly Fri night
through Sun, as a frontal system clips the waters offshore of NE
Florida. The front is forecast to move slowly offshore on Sat, and
stall offshore NE Florida by Sun. Fresh to locally strong SW
winds are expected N of 30N and ahead of the front tonight through
Fri. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected south of 22N,
around the southern periphery of the ridge, through Sun. These
winds will likely increase to strong speeds Sun night through Mon
night.
$$
Lewitsky
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Thu, 18 Jun 2026 20:30:17 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 182030
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jun 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 25W, south of
18N to near the Cabo Verde Islands, moving westward at around
5-10 kt. Any nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH section below.
Another Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W, south of
18N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is
discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 64W, south
of 18N near the Anegada Passage to eastern Venezuela, moving
westward at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is discussed in
the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.
A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 85W, south of
19N across portions of eastern Honduras and central Nicaragua,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is
discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa
near 14N17W and extends SW to near 06.5N29W. The ITCZ extends
from 06.5N29W to 06N43W where it becomes ill-defined due to a
tropical wave to the west. Isolated to widely scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between
10W and 55W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A ridge extends from subtropical high centered in the Atlantic to
across Florida and the Gulf along 26N, with a surface trough
extending from eastern Mexico, across the SW Gulf. The pressure
gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong
winds across much of the Gulf. Seas are in the 4-7 ft over much of
the Gulf, reaching 8 ft off the coast of Louisiana to the western
Florida Panhandle.
For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into
the Gulf region. The pressure gradient between this system and
lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico will support
fresh to strong southerly winds over the western and central Gulf,
and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf through Fri.
Expect rough seas N of 27N and offshore of the Louisiana coast
this afternoon to shift eastward with these winds through tonight
before diminishing. Winds and seas will diminish basin-wide late
Fri through the weekend as weak high pressure settles over the
eastern Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends
westward along 27N-28N and across central Florida. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low is supporting
fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, where seas are
in the 6-8 ft range. Fresh to locally strong winds are over the
Gulf of Honduras as well as in the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are across the remainder of
the Caribbean. A large cluster of deep convection is noted south
of 14N between 74W and 82W with locally higher winds and seas
possible there.
For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will remain in place north
of the area through early next week, while weakening slightly Fri
night through Sun, as a frontal system clips the waters off NE
Florida. The pressure gradient south of the ridge will sustain
fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the
central Caribbean through the forecast period, with highest winds
and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at
fresh to strong speeds and moderate to rough seas are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Mon, pulsing briefly to near
gale- force tonight and Fri night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds
are expected elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean through
Mon night. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across SW
portions through Sat as an upper-level trough digs into the area.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A frontal trough extends from 31N33W to 25N44W. Isolated moderate
convection is in the vicinity of the trough. The rest of the
discussion waters N of 20N is dominated by high pressure anchored
by a 1024 mb subtropical high centered near 28N57W. Light to
gentle winds are in the vicinity of ridging extending from 31N22W
to the high to central Florida. Moderate to locally fresh winds
dominate the remainder of the discussion waters, except fresh to
strong N-NE winds from 18N to 24N between Africa and 21W. Seas
are in the 3-6 ft range, except locally to 7 ft south of 22N.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will remain in
place through early next week, while weakening slightly Fri night
through Sun, as a frontal system clips the waters offshore of NE
Florida. The front is forecast to move slowly offshore on Sat, and
stall offshore NE Florida by Sun. Fresh to locally strong SW
winds are expected N of 30N and ahead of the front tonight through
Fri. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected south of 22N,
around the southern periphery of the ridge, through Sun. These
winds will likely increase to strong speeds Sun night through Mon
night.
$$
Lewitsky
Active Tropical Systems
- Sat, 20 Jun 2026 05:33:51 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 18 Jun 2026 21:06:12 GMT - Thu, 18 Jun 2026 17:33:51 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 181733
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Offshore the East Coast of the United States (Remnants of Arthur):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
(the remnants of Arthur) are located over the southeastern United
States. The system is expected to emerge offshore the east coast of
the United States on Friday. Environmental conditions then appear to
be marginally conducive for some subtropical or tropical development
on Friday or Saturday as the system moves northeastward at 15 to 20
mph across the Western Atlantic Ocean.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with the potential for
widespread and life-threatening flash flooding is likely across
portions of the Southeast United States during the next day or two.
Additional information on the rainfall potential can be found in
rainfall forecasts and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks from the Weather
Prediction Center online at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. More information
on this system, including Gale Warnings, is available in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Kelly
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Thu, 18 Jun 2026 14:25:47 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 181425
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1025 AM EDT THU 18 JUNE 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JUNE 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-018
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf