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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 04:24:33 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 160424
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Aug 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient remains tighten
between surface ridging over the western Atlantic and lower
pressure in northern South America. This is supporting gale-
force northeast to east winds off Colombia through Sun morning.
Expect rough to very rough seas to near 15 ft near and downwind of
these winds.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.
Heavy Precipitation in South Central America and Colombia: Two
tropical waves will propagate into Central America over the next
several days. The wave will interact with enhanced divergence
aloft and an active monsoon trough. The first wave is located
near 87W. As this wave continues westward, expect heavy
precipitation to continue in Costa Rica, the Darien region of
Panama and into Choco-Colombia on into Sun. On Sun, the second
tropical wave will enter the western Caribbean and strengthen the
cyclonic rotation over Panama and Colombia that will favor an
increase in available moisture into Colombia and moist easterly
flow into the eastern portion of Costa Rica. The heaviest
precipitation is expected in Costa Rica through early on Sun,
while the heaviest precipitation is expected in southwest Panama,
the Darien Region, and Choco-Colombia Sun into Monday. There is
some uncertainty on how far south the heaviest rainfall could
reach, particularly due to how far south the available moisture
and the westerly flow enters the region.
Please refer to the WPC International Desk and local weather
services for more information.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W from
05N to 21N, moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is ahead of the wave S of 13N to near 33W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W from 04N
to 21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are
noted in the wave environment.
An eastern Caribbean strong tropical wave is along 67W south of
21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 120 nm on either side of the wave axis.
The northern extension of a tropical wave is analyzed along 87W
and south of 22N, moving westward at 15 kt. The convection
related to this feature is confined to the EPAC waters.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W, and extends
southwestward to 08N47W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to
08N53W and to near 10N60W. Convection is discussed in the
Tropical Waves section above.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1021 mb high is centered over the north-central Gulf near
29N88W. Its related gradient is supporting gentle to moderate
winds across the forecast waters. Seas over the basin are 2 to 4
ft. Fresh winds are occurring north and west of the Yucatan
Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche, as a surface trough
extends across the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
For the forecast, the high pressure center will remain over the north-
central Gulf through Mon, then moves toward the SE Gulf by Tue
while weakening some. This pattern will continue to support
mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with
pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan
Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night, as the diurnal surface
trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW
Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast
period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning
in effect for the waters offshore Colombia.
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.
Outside of the gale area, fresh to strong trade winds and
rough seas are over most of the Caribbean south of 18N. Moderate
to fresh trades continue over the remainder of the waters along
with seas of 4 to 6 ft.
For the forecast, the ridge N of the area combined with the
Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds over
most of the east and central Caribbean through Sun. Peak winds to
minimal gale-force are expected offshore Colombia tonight into
early Sun morning. The tropical wave along 67W, will continue to
impact the eastern and portions of the central Caribbean tonight.
Fresh to strong winds, moderate to rough seas and heavy rain will
be associated with the wave, forecast to move across the central
Caribbean through Mon, reaching the NW part of the basin Mon night
into Tue. Another tropical wave will approach the Leeward Islands
by Tue.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
High pressure, anchored by a 1022 mb high center south-southwest
of Bermuda near 26N71W continues across the basin. Latest
satellite Ascat scatterometer data indicates fresh northeast winds
along the coast of western Sahara and through the Canary Islands.
Seas are around 6 to 7 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, latest
satellite scatterometer data passes reveal moderate or weaker
trades. Seas are about 4 to 6 ft with these trades.
Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 28N and W of 53W. A
surface trough is analyzed from 31N59W to 27N64W. The base of a
broad upper-level trough translating eastward is north of 31N
between 50W and 70W, with impulses riding along it from west to
east. This activity is also south of a frontal boundary well
north of the area.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined
with the passage of two tropical waves through the Caribbean Sea
will cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N including
the approaches and in the Windward Passage through Sun night.
A cold front will slowly push across the northern forecast border
east of 70W late on Sun, and move across the northern forecast
waters on Mon while dissipating into a trough by Tue. Fresh to
strong SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front and E of 70W
on Sun and Sun night.
$$
ERA
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 04:24:33 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 160424
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Aug 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient remains tighten
between surface ridging over the western Atlantic and lower
pressure in northern South America. This is supporting gale-
force northeast to east winds off Colombia through Sun morning.
Expect rough to very rough seas to near 15 ft near and downwind of
these winds.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.
Heavy Precipitation in South Central America and Colombia: Two
tropical waves will propagate into Central America over the next
several days. The wave will interact with enhanced divergence
aloft and an active monsoon trough. The first wave is located
near 87W. As this wave continues westward, expect heavy
precipitation to continue in Costa Rica, the Darien region of
Panama and into Choco-Colombia on into Sun. On Sun, the second
tropical wave will enter the western Caribbean and strengthen the
cyclonic rotation over Panama and Colombia that will favor an
increase in available moisture into Colombia and moist easterly
flow into the eastern portion of Costa Rica. The heaviest
precipitation is expected in Costa Rica through early on Sun,
while the heaviest precipitation is expected in southwest Panama,
the Darien Region, and Choco-Colombia Sun into Monday. There is
some uncertainty on how far south the heaviest rainfall could
reach, particularly due to how far south the available moisture
and the westerly flow enters the region.
Please refer to the WPC International Desk and local weather
services for more information.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W from
05N to 21N, moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is ahead of the wave S of 13N to near 33W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W from 04N
to 21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are
noted in the wave environment.
An eastern Caribbean strong tropical wave is along 67W south of
21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 120 nm on either side of the wave axis.
The northern extension of a tropical wave is analyzed along 87W
and south of 22N, moving westward at 15 kt. The convection
related to this feature is confined to the EPAC waters.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W, and extends
southwestward to 08N47W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to
08N53W and to near 10N60W. Convection is discussed in the
Tropical Waves section above.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1021 mb high is centered over the north-central Gulf near
29N88W. Its related gradient is supporting gentle to moderate
winds across the forecast waters. Seas over the basin are 2 to 4
ft. Fresh winds are occurring north and west of the Yucatan
Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche, as a surface trough
extends across the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
For the forecast, the high pressure center will remain over the north-
central Gulf through Mon, then moves toward the SE Gulf by Tue
while weakening some. This pattern will continue to support
mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with
pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan
Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night, as the diurnal surface
trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW
Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast
period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning
in effect for the waters offshore Colombia.
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.
Outside of the gale area, fresh to strong trade winds and
rough seas are over most of the Caribbean south of 18N. Moderate
to fresh trades continue over the remainder of the waters along
with seas of 4 to 6 ft.
For the forecast, the ridge N of the area combined with the
Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds over
most of the east and central Caribbean through Sun. Peak winds to
minimal gale-force are expected offshore Colombia tonight into
early Sun morning. The tropical wave along 67W, will continue to
impact the eastern and portions of the central Caribbean tonight.
Fresh to strong winds, moderate to rough seas and heavy rain will
be associated with the wave, forecast to move across the central
Caribbean through Mon, reaching the NW part of the basin Mon night
into Tue. Another tropical wave will approach the Leeward Islands
by Tue.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
High pressure, anchored by a 1022 mb high center south-southwest
of Bermuda near 26N71W continues across the basin. Latest
satellite Ascat scatterometer data indicates fresh northeast winds
along the coast of western Sahara and through the Canary Islands.
Seas are around 6 to 7 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, latest
satellite scatterometer data passes reveal moderate or weaker
trades. Seas are about 4 to 6 ft with these trades.
Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 28N and W of 53W. A
surface trough is analyzed from 31N59W to 27N64W. The base of a
broad upper-level trough translating eastward is north of 31N
between 50W and 70W, with impulses riding along it from west to
east. This activity is also south of a frontal boundary well
north of the area.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined
with the passage of two tropical waves through the Caribbean Sea
will cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N including
the approaches and in the Windward Passage through Sun night.
A cold front will slowly push across the northern forecast border
east of 70W late on Sun, and move across the northern forecast
waters on Mon while dissipating into a trough by Tue. Fresh to
strong SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front and E of 70W
on Sun and Sun night.
$$
ERA
Active Tropical Systems
- Mon, 17 Aug 2026 17:19:15 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 16 Aug 2026 07:40:14 GMT - Sun, 16 Aug 2026 05:19:15 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 160519
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sat, 15 Aug 2026 15:00:38 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
579
NOUS42 KNHC 151500
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 15 AUGUST 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-076
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf