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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Mon, 10 Aug 2026 10:03:07 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 101002
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Aug 10 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 26W and extends from 08N to 17N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
06N to 12N between 24W and 33W.
A tropical wave is near 43W from 07N to 17N, moving west at
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 14N
between 39W and 50W.
A tropical wave is along 55W from 13N to 24N, moving west at 15
kt. Saharan Air surrounds this wave, and thus no significant
convection currently accompanies the wave.
A tropical wave is along 74W and S of 20N, moving west at 15 to
20 kt. No convection is noted in this wave's environment at this
time.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 20N17W and continues southwestward to 11N47W. The ITCZ
extends from 11N47W to 10N61W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, no convection is noted at this
time.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to dot the Gulf
waters, mainly near southwest Florida, the Yucatan Channel, and
over the NW part of the basin. A diffluent pattern aloft is
helping to induce this convective activity. Convection has also
flared-up over the Yucatan Peninsula and is slowly shifting
westward into the eastern Bay of Campeche. A surface ridge
extends from the Bermuda High west-southwestward across northern
Florida and across the northern Gulf along 29N. This pattern is
supporting light to gentle winds and slight of 3 ft or less over
most of the basin. Moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring
across the nearshore waters along the N and W coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula, W of a surface trough over the Peninsula. Moderate
easterly winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail across the Straits of
Florida.
For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the general
wind flow pattern across basin well into the upcoming week,
generally supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N
along with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north
and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche
each evening and night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from
the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure located
just southwest of Bermuda and a 1007 mb Colombian low continues
to promote fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean
between 66W and 80W, with the strongest winds around 30 kt
offshore Colombia and inside the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 7 to
10 ft with these winds. Winds have increased to strong near the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic, near the Barahona
Peninsula, as a tropical wave is moving through the area.
Scattered moderate convection trails the wave. Moderate to fresh
winds are E of 66W across the eastern Caribbean behind the
tropical wave. Seas are 4 to 6 ft there. Fresh to strong NE winds
are also present across the Windward Passage, where seas are 5 to
7 ft. Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere across NW
portions, with moderate seas. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical wave, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
are occurring over south coastal portions of Cuba, and in the
Gulf of Honduras.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the Caribbean basin
will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-
central and portions of the SW basin will into the week. The
Atlantic ridge will gradually shift southward to near 28N through
midweek maintaining strong to near-gale winds offshore Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Winds will pulse up to
fresh to strong speeds during the evenings and at night in the
Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. The
Atlantic ridge will shift farther southward later this week, which
may act to increase the trades again across the basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Three tropical waves are moving westward across the Atlantic between
W Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The National Hurricane Center
is monitoring two areas with the potential of tropical cyclone
formation during the coming week.
A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast waters, centered on a
1023 mb Bermuda High, and a 1022 mb high near 28N36W. A weakening
cold front is analyzed N of 30N between 40W and 48W. The ridge is
promoting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 24N and west of
30W, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are near
the tropical wave along 41W-42W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds
and 5 to 9 ft seas extend from the Canary Islands southwestward to
near 19N. Elsewhere within the ridge, gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge will
shift gradually southward to along 28N through Tue. Fresh trades
will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward
Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each night.
The ridge will sink a bit farther southward later next week, which
may result in stronger easterly winds.
Of note, a low pres system is forecast to move slowly across the
East Atlantic and merge with a tropical wave in a couple of days,
and environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for
development by midweek. A tropical depression could form during
the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. There is
a medium chance for tropical development for this system within
the next 7 days.
$$
ERA
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Mon, 10 Aug 2026 10:03:07 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 101002
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Aug 10 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 26W and extends from 08N to 17N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
06N to 12N between 24W and 33W.
A tropical wave is near 43W from 07N to 17N, moving west at
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 14N
between 39W and 50W.
A tropical wave is along 55W from 13N to 24N, moving west at 15
kt. Saharan Air surrounds this wave, and thus no significant
convection currently accompanies the wave.
A tropical wave is along 74W and S of 20N, moving west at 15 to
20 kt. No convection is noted in this wave's environment at this
time.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 20N17W and continues southwestward to 11N47W. The ITCZ
extends from 11N47W to 10N61W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, no convection is noted at this
time.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to dot the Gulf
waters, mainly near southwest Florida, the Yucatan Channel, and
over the NW part of the basin. A diffluent pattern aloft is
helping to induce this convective activity. Convection has also
flared-up over the Yucatan Peninsula and is slowly shifting
westward into the eastern Bay of Campeche. A surface ridge
extends from the Bermuda High west-southwestward across northern
Florida and across the northern Gulf along 29N. This pattern is
supporting light to gentle winds and slight of 3 ft or less over
most of the basin. Moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring
across the nearshore waters along the N and W coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula, W of a surface trough over the Peninsula. Moderate
easterly winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail across the Straits of
Florida.
For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the general
wind flow pattern across basin well into the upcoming week,
generally supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N
along with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north
and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche
each evening and night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from
the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure located
just southwest of Bermuda and a 1007 mb Colombian low continues
to promote fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean
between 66W and 80W, with the strongest winds around 30 kt
offshore Colombia and inside the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 7 to
10 ft with these winds. Winds have increased to strong near the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic, near the Barahona
Peninsula, as a tropical wave is moving through the area.
Scattered moderate convection trails the wave. Moderate to fresh
winds are E of 66W across the eastern Caribbean behind the
tropical wave. Seas are 4 to 6 ft there. Fresh to strong NE winds
are also present across the Windward Passage, where seas are 5 to
7 ft. Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere across NW
portions, with moderate seas. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical wave, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
are occurring over south coastal portions of Cuba, and in the
Gulf of Honduras.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the Caribbean basin
will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-
central and portions of the SW basin will into the week. The
Atlantic ridge will gradually shift southward to near 28N through
midweek maintaining strong to near-gale winds offshore Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Winds will pulse up to
fresh to strong speeds during the evenings and at night in the
Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. The
Atlantic ridge will shift farther southward later this week, which
may act to increase the trades again across the basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Three tropical waves are moving westward across the Atlantic between
W Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The National Hurricane Center
is monitoring two areas with the potential of tropical cyclone
formation during the coming week.
A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast waters, centered on a
1023 mb Bermuda High, and a 1022 mb high near 28N36W. A weakening
cold front is analyzed N of 30N between 40W and 48W. The ridge is
promoting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 24N and west of
30W, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are near
the tropical wave along 41W-42W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds
and 5 to 9 ft seas extend from the Canary Islands southwestward to
near 19N. Elsewhere within the ridge, gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge will
shift gradually southward to along 28N through Tue. Fresh trades
will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward
Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each night.
The ridge will sink a bit farther southward later next week, which
may result in stronger easterly winds.
Of note, a low pres system is forecast to move slowly across the
East Atlantic and merge with a tropical wave in a couple of days,
and environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for
development by midweek. A tropical depression could form during
the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. There is
a medium chance for tropical development for this system within
the next 7 days.
$$
ERA
Active Tropical Systems
- Tue, 11 Aug 2026 23:58:55 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 10 Aug 2026 14:50:10 GMT - Mon, 10 Aug 2026 11:58:55 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 101158
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. As this system moves slowly westward, a tropical wave
currently over west Africa is expected to merge with it in a couple
of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for development by midweek, and a tropical depression could form
during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward
to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave is located about midway between the coast of west Africa and
the Lesser Antilles. Some gradual development of this system is
possible through mid-week while it moves quickly westward across the
central tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are expected to become
less favorable for development later in the week as the system
approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Western Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles northwest of
Bermuda is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Some development of this system is possible during the next couple
of days while it moves quickly eastward, well to the north of
Bermuda, across the western and central subtropical Atlantic. The
system is forecast to reach cooler waters later this week, ending
its chances of formation after Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Adams/Pasch
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Mon, 10 Aug 2026 14:43:54 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 101443
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 10 AUGUST 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z AUGUST 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-071
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12.0N 55.0W FOR 12/1800Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL PACIFIC - CP93)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. 12/0000Z
B. NOAA9 01AAC SURV
C. 11/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND
CP93 FOR 13/0000Z, DEPARTING PHJR AT 12/1730Z.
B. POSSIBLE FIX MISSION INTO CP93 NEAR 15.0N 144.0W FOR
13/0000Z.
C. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO CP93 FOR
13/0000Z, DEPARTING PHJR AT 12/2000Z.
$$
KAL
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf