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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 15:56:40 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 161556
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Aug 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is west of the Cape Verde Islands extending from
07N to 19N with axis near 33W, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 10N to 14N between 30W and 35W.
A tropical wave is over the Atlantic central waters, extending
from 04N to 20N with axis near 51W, moving west at 15-20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 14N between 47W and
52W.
A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis near 72W
south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is active from 12N to 18N between 68W
and 77W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W, and extends
southwestward to 13N25W to 12N31W. The ITCZ begins near 12N40W
and continues to 13.5N45W to 12N50W. No significant covection is
evident aside from the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves
section above.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A ridge extends across the northern Gulf anchored by a 1021 mb
high pressure center over the northwest Gulf near 28N91W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the west-
central Gulf, west of a trough that extends across the southwest
Gulf along 94W from 24N94W southward to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico
along the Bay of Campeche. This pattern is supporting moderate SE
winds and 3-5 ft seas east of the trough, and light to gentle
breezes and 1-3 ft seas elsewhere across the Gulf.
For the forecast, the high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters
through the week. A weak pressure gradient will support mostly
gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A diurnally
induced surface trough will generate fresh to occasionally strong
winds N of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds
will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough
migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected
through the forecast period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active across the
central Caribbean between northwest Venezuela and Hispaniola,
along a tropical wave moving through the region. The pressure
gradient between this feature and the Atlantic ridge centered east
of the Bahamas is supporting strong E winds and 10-12 ft seas
over the north-central Caribbean, and fresh NE to E winds and 7-9
ft elsewhere east of 85W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 9
ft are also active through the Windward Passage to the north coast
of Jamaica. Fresh NE winds and 4-6 ft seas are noted in the lee of
Cuba, with moderate NE winds and 3-5 ft seas elsewhere over the
northwest Caribbean.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge N of
the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds
over the central Caribbean though Mon. The tropical wave in the
central Caribbean is accompanied by active convection which will
create locally higher winds and seas. The wave will continue
westward across the western Caribbean Mon.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The subtropical Atlantic waters remain under the influence of the
Bermuda-Azores High, anchored by 1022 mb high pressure centered
east of the northern Bahamas near 26N73W. Scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms are active between this ridge and Bermuda, on
the southern end of a stationary front north of the area along
32N. Moderate to fresh E winds and 4-6 ft seas are noted between
the ridge and front, specifically from 28N to 30N between 55W and
70W. Moderate to fresh E winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted south of
the ridge, specifically south of 22N and west of 55W, with strong
winds and rough seas near the northern approaches to the Windward
Passage. The eastern Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge
anchored by 1027 mb high pressure centered over the Azores. Light
to gentle SE to S breezes are evident along the ridge axis from
the Azores to the Bahamas, with 3-4 ft seas. A band of moderate
NE winds and 4-6 ft seas from off northwest Africa to the eastern
Caribbean, except fresh trade winds and 5-7 ft seas in the deep
tropics east of the Lesser Antilles. Gentle breezes and 4-6 ft
seas are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a
ridge along 28N and a tropical wave moving through the central
Caribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
south of 22N through tonight. A cold front will move into the
northern waters east of 70W late today. The front will move across
the northern forecast waters on Mon then weaken into a trough by
Tue. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front
and E of 70W today and tonight.
$$
Christensen
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 15:56:40 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 161556
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Aug 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is west of the Cape Verde Islands extending from
07N to 19N with axis near 33W, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 10N to 14N between 30W and 35W.
A tropical wave is over the Atlantic central waters, extending
from 04N to 20N with axis near 51W, moving west at 15-20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 14N between 47W and
52W.
A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis near 72W
south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is active from 12N to 18N between 68W
and 77W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W, and extends
southwestward to 13N25W to 12N31W. The ITCZ begins near 12N40W
and continues to 13.5N45W to 12N50W. No significant covection is
evident aside from the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves
section above.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A ridge extends across the northern Gulf anchored by a 1021 mb
high pressure center over the northwest Gulf near 28N91W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the west-
central Gulf, west of a trough that extends across the southwest
Gulf along 94W from 24N94W southward to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico
along the Bay of Campeche. This pattern is supporting moderate SE
winds and 3-5 ft seas east of the trough, and light to gentle
breezes and 1-3 ft seas elsewhere across the Gulf.
For the forecast, the high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters
through the week. A weak pressure gradient will support mostly
gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A diurnally
induced surface trough will generate fresh to occasionally strong
winds N of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds
will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough
migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected
through the forecast period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active across the
central Caribbean between northwest Venezuela and Hispaniola,
along a tropical wave moving through the region. The pressure
gradient between this feature and the Atlantic ridge centered east
of the Bahamas is supporting strong E winds and 10-12 ft seas
over the north-central Caribbean, and fresh NE to E winds and 7-9
ft elsewhere east of 85W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 9
ft are also active through the Windward Passage to the north coast
of Jamaica. Fresh NE winds and 4-6 ft seas are noted in the lee of
Cuba, with moderate NE winds and 3-5 ft seas elsewhere over the
northwest Caribbean.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge N of
the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds
over the central Caribbean though Mon. The tropical wave in the
central Caribbean is accompanied by active convection which will
create locally higher winds and seas. The wave will continue
westward across the western Caribbean Mon.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The subtropical Atlantic waters remain under the influence of the
Bermuda-Azores High, anchored by 1022 mb high pressure centered
east of the northern Bahamas near 26N73W. Scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms are active between this ridge and Bermuda, on
the southern end of a stationary front north of the area along
32N. Moderate to fresh E winds and 4-6 ft seas are noted between
the ridge and front, specifically from 28N to 30N between 55W and
70W. Moderate to fresh E winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted south of
the ridge, specifically south of 22N and west of 55W, with strong
winds and rough seas near the northern approaches to the Windward
Passage. The eastern Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge
anchored by 1027 mb high pressure centered over the Azores. Light
to gentle SE to S breezes are evident along the ridge axis from
the Azores to the Bahamas, with 3-4 ft seas. A band of moderate
NE winds and 4-6 ft seas from off northwest Africa to the eastern
Caribbean, except fresh trade winds and 5-7 ft seas in the deep
tropics east of the Lesser Antilles. Gentle breezes and 4-6 ft
seas are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a
ridge along 28N and a tropical wave moving through the central
Caribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
south of 22N through tonight. A cold front will move into the
northern waters east of 70W late today. The front will move across
the northern forecast waters on Mon then weaken into a trough by
Tue. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front
and E of 70W today and tonight.
$$
Christensen
Active Tropical Systems
- Tue, 18 Aug 2026 05:22:55 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 16 Aug 2026 21:23:19 GMT - Sun, 16 Aug 2026 17:22:55 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 161722
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 13:24:49 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 161324
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT SUN 16 AUGUST 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-077
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf