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2026 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models

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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2026 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 7 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Thu, 16 Jul 2026 15:56:57 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (corrected) - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic) (corrected)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 161556 CCA
    TWDAT

    Correcting Gulf discussion

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1815 UTC Thu Jul 16 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1530 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURE...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high
    pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low will support
    fresh to strong NE-E winds in the south-central Caribbean during
    the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force across the
    waters N of Colombia each night through Sat night. Rough to very
    rough seas will prevail with these winds.

    Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
    issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 22W, south of
    16N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
    present from 11N to 13N and between 20W and 23W and remains
    disorganized. Some slow development is possible during the next
    couple of days while the system moves generally west-northwestward
    at about 10 mph. By this weekend, the system is forecast to move
    into a less conducive environment, and further development is not
    expected. The disturbance has a low chance of development over the
    next 7 days.

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 18N,
    moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted
    with this wave at this time.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Africa near 21N17W and continues southwestward to a 1012 mb low
    pres near 11N22W to 09N33W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to
    08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 11N to 13N
    and between 20W and 23W

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A 1021 mb high pressure system positioned over the northern Gulf
    near 28N88W. A surface trough is analyzed over the Yucatan
    Peninsula. The pattern is supporting moderate to fresh winds
    across the southwest and south-central Gulf, where seas are 3-5
    ft. Gentle to moderate breeze are noted elsewhere over the
    western Gulf, with 2-4 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes are noted
    over the north- central and northeast Gulf with 1-3 ft seas. A few
    showers and thunderstorms are active off Tampa Bay, Florida, and
    Tampico, Mexico.

    For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore the
    Yucatan Peninsula each night. Gentle to moderate winds, and
    slight to moderate seas, will prevail elsewhere.

    Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form this
    weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual
    development of this system is possible while it moves slowly
    northeastward over the northeastern Gulf and near the coast of the
    southeastern United States early next week.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean offshore
    of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features section for
    more details.

    The Atlantic subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean
    forces strong to gale easterly trade winds across the central
    Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia and in
    the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough to very rough seas are found in these
    waters. Fresh NE winds and moderate seas are noted in the
    Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to
    fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present in the eastern
    Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
    moderate seas are prevalent.

    A diffluent pattern aloft combined with abundant tropical moisture
    is generating a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the
    Gulf of Honduras. Trade wind convergence is supporting showers and
    thunderstorms off western Panama. Gusty winds, frequent
    lightning, and higher seas are likely with this convective
    activity.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
    the basin and the Colombian low will support pulsing NE winds to
    gale-force across the waters N of Colombia each night through
    Sat night. Otherwise, strong to near-gale trade winds and rough
    seas will prevail across the central Caribbean into early next
    week. East winds will pulse fresh to strong each evening in the
    Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A broad ridge extends across the Atlantic basin north of 15N,
    anchored by 1025 mb centered near 30N40W. In addition to the
    tropical waves south of the ridge, a weak surface trough extends
    from the Leeward Islands to 21N55W. Another weak trough reaches
    from the northern Bahamas to 31N75W, supporting showers and
    thunderstorms near 30N75W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and
    3-5 ft seas is noted along the ridge axis north of 15N and west of
    35W, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4-6 ft are noted
    elsewhere.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will remain dominant through
    the forecast period. The weather pattern will support moderate
    to fresh trades south of 25N, with gentle winds to the north.
    Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola
    and in the Windward Passage.

    $$
    Christensen
Tropical Weather Discussion
  • Thu, 16 Jul 2026 15:56:57 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (corrected) - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic) (corrected)
    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 161556 CCA
    TWDAT

    Correcting Gulf discussion

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1815 UTC Thu Jul 16 2026

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1530 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURE...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high
    pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low will support
    fresh to strong NE-E winds in the south-central Caribbean during
    the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force across the
    waters N of Colombia each night through Sat night. Rough to very
    rough seas will prevail with these winds.

    Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
    issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 22W, south of
    16N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
    present from 11N to 13N and between 20W and 23W and remains
    disorganized. Some slow development is possible during the next
    couple of days while the system moves generally west-northwestward
    at about 10 mph. By this weekend, the system is forecast to move
    into a less conducive environment, and further development is not
    expected. The disturbance has a low chance of development over the
    next 7 days.

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 18N,
    moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted
    with this wave at this time.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Africa near 21N17W and continues southwestward to a 1012 mb low
    pres near 11N22W to 09N33W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to
    08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 11N to 13N
    and between 20W and 23W

    ...GULF OF AMERICA...

    A 1021 mb high pressure system positioned over the northern Gulf
    near 28N88W. A surface trough is analyzed over the Yucatan
    Peninsula. The pattern is supporting moderate to fresh winds
    across the southwest and south-central Gulf, where seas are 3-5
    ft. Gentle to moderate breeze are noted elsewhere over the
    western Gulf, with 2-4 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes are noted
    over the north- central and northeast Gulf with 1-3 ft seas. A few
    showers and thunderstorms are active off Tampa Bay, Florida, and
    Tampico, Mexico.

    For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore the
    Yucatan Peninsula each night. Gentle to moderate winds, and
    slight to moderate seas, will prevail elsewhere.

    Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form this
    weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual
    development of this system is possible while it moves slowly
    northeastward over the northeastern Gulf and near the coast of the
    southeastern United States early next week.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean offshore
    of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features section for
    more details.

    The Atlantic subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean
    forces strong to gale easterly trade winds across the central
    Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia and in
    the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough to very rough seas are found in these
    waters. Fresh NE winds and moderate seas are noted in the
    Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to
    fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present in the eastern
    Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
    moderate seas are prevalent.

    A diffluent pattern aloft combined with abundant tropical moisture
    is generating a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the
    Gulf of Honduras. Trade wind convergence is supporting showers and
    thunderstorms off western Panama. Gusty winds, frequent
    lightning, and higher seas are likely with this convective
    activity.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
    the basin and the Colombian low will support pulsing NE winds to
    gale-force across the waters N of Colombia each night through
    Sat night. Otherwise, strong to near-gale trade winds and rough
    seas will prevail across the central Caribbean into early next
    week. East winds will pulse fresh to strong each evening in the
    Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A broad ridge extends across the Atlantic basin north of 15N,
    anchored by 1025 mb centered near 30N40W. In addition to the
    tropical waves south of the ridge, a weak surface trough extends
    from the Leeward Islands to 21N55W. Another weak trough reaches
    from the northern Bahamas to 31N75W, supporting showers and
    thunderstorms near 30N75W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and
    3-5 ft seas is noted along the ridge axis north of 15N and west of
    35W, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4-6 ft are noted
    elsewhere.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will remain dominant through
    the forecast period. The weather pattern will support moderate
    to fresh trades south of 25N, with gentle winds to the north.
    Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola
    and in the Windward Passage.

    $$
    Christensen
Active Tropical Systems
  • Fri, 17 Jul 2026 23:16:38 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
    No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 16 Jul 2026 16:02:09 GMT
  • Thu, 16 Jul 2026 11:16:38 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 161116
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

    Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
    Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
    southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands remain disorganized. Some slow
    development is possible during the next day or two while the system
    moves generally west-northwestward at about 10 mph. By this
    weekend, the system is forecast to move into a less conducive
    environment, and further development is not expected.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

    Northeastern Gulf of America and Offshore of the Southeastern U.S.:
    An area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend over the
    northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual development of this
    system is possible while it moves slowly northeastward over the
    northeastern Gulf and near the coast of the southeastern United
    States early next week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
  • Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:50:07 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
    000
    NOUS42 KNHC 161250
    REPRPD
    WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
    CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
    0900 AM EDT THU 16 JULY 2026
    SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
    VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z JULY 2026
    TCPOD NUMBER.....26-046

    I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    $$
    SEF

    NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
  • Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf
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