2026 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

000
WTNT44 KNHC 281446
TCDAT4
 
Remnants Of Dolly Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042026
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 28 2026

During the past few hours, the center of Dolly passed just north of 
NOAA buoy 41041, which did not observe any westerly winds. 
Examination of high-resolution satellite imagery also does not 
readily indicate any westerly winds south of the center.  Based on 
this, Dolly has become an open tropical wave, with the initial and 
forecast positions being that of the vorticity maximum. The initial 
intensity remains 35 kt, with those winds occurring north of the 
vorticity center.

The system is moving 280/22 kt, and this motion should continue for 
the next 24 h.  After that time, a general westward to west- 
northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed should 
take the remnants of Dolly near the Leeward Island Saturday night or 
Sunday, and near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Sunday 
afternoon or Sunday night. A continued west-northwestward motion is 
expected after that, with the remnants moving through the Greater 
Antilles or the Bahamas during the early part of next week.

The system is currently in a hostile environment with significant 
southwesterly shear and dry air. These conditions should continue 
for at least the next 2-3 days, and the remnants should slowly 
weaken during this time. The official forecast shows 24 h of points 
where the maximum winds are at tropical-storm force and there is a 
well-defined vorticity center. After that, the winds are expected to 
decrease below 35 kt, and the system center is expected to become 
less well-defined. Some global models hint at the possibility that 
Dolly could regenerate in several days, but at this time there is 
poor agreement on where and when this might occur. Should conditions 
warrant, further information regarding the potential redevelopment 
of the remnants of Dolly will be provided in subsequent Tropical 
Weather Outlooks.

This is the last advisory on Dolly issued by the National Hurricane 
Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High 
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS 
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rains from the remnants of Dolly could affect the Leeward 
Islands late Saturday into Sunday with possible impacts in the 
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday.  This 
heavy rain may produce flash flooding within areas of higher terrain 
of the Leeward Islands.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 15.0N  46.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  29/0000Z 15.6N  50.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  29/1200Z 16.4N  54.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

000
FONT14 KNHC 281445
PWSAT4
                                                                    
REMNANTS OF DOLLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042026               
1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH
...LONGITUDE 46.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40
MPH...65 KM/H.                                                      
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT34 KNHC 281445
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Remnants Of Dolly Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042026
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 28 2026
 
...DOLLY IS NOW AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE...
...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THE REMNANTS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 46.9W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1610 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
the remnants of Dolly.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the remnants of Dolly were located near
latitude 15.0 North, longitude 46.9 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west near 25 mph (41 km/h) and this motion is expected 
to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, 
the remnants should be nearing the Leeward Islands Saturday night 
and Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
gusts. The winds associated with the remnants of Dolly are expected 
to decrease below tropical-storm force on Saturday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) 
to the north of the remnants of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the remnants of Dolly can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Heavy rain from the remnants of Dolly could affect the
Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday, with rainfall moving into
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday.
This heavy rain may produce flash flooding within areas of higher
terrain of the Leeward Islands.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be 
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
$$
Forecaster Beven