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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Mon, 15 Jun 2026 17:44:05 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 151743
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 21W, south of
16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 04N to 10N between 14W and 26W.
An Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 15N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from
03N to 08N and between 32W and 40W.
An Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 18N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is present S of 09N between 51W and 60W.
A Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 18N, moving
westward at near 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen over the
waters behind the wave south of 14N, between the wave and 67W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 06N30W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 05N38W and then resumes from 05N40W
to 05.5N52W. In addition to convection described above in the
TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 20W and 55W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring along and near
the coasts of NE Mexico, Texas, and SW Louisiana with a frontal
boundary inland over Texas and Mexico, as well as multiple surface
troughs analyzed inland. The tightening pressure gradient between
these troughs and a subtropical ridge stemming from the Atlantic
support moderate to fresh SE winds and in the W Gulf, as well as
in the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail
elsehwere. Seas in the Gulf range from 1-4 ft E of 90W to 4-6 ft
W of 90W.
For the forecast, a trough just inland northeastern Mexico will
drift northward during the next couple of days. It is then
forecast to move northeastward along the Texas coast, and possibly
re-emerge over the NW Gulf late Tue or Wed, at which time
environmental conditions may support some development. Expect
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the NW Gulf
during this time. Some of this activity may produce wind gusts to
near gale force. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between a
western Atlantic ridge that stretches west-northwestward to the NE
Gulf and the low pressure will sustain fresh to strong southerly
winds over the western Gulf early Wed through Thu night, and
moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are ongoing in
the far SW Caribbean, near the East Pacific monsoon trough. The
pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and the
Colombia Low supports fresh to strong E winds and rough seas
across much of the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern and NW Caribbean
including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the gradient between broad Atlantic high
pressure and relatively lower pressures south of the Greater
Antilles will sustain a rather extensive area of fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central section of the basin through the
forecast period. The highest of the winds and seas are expected
off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri. Gentle
to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will
become southeast at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough is analyzed from 31N43W to 26N48W, with scattered
moderate convection seen E of the trough axis out to about 37W
and N of 28N. Fresh SW winds are also confirmed by recent
scatterometer data E of the trough to about 40W. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are also ongoing along a surface trough
off the SE US coast. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the
influence of a subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas across much of the basin S of 22N, as
well as N of 22N and E of 35W. NE winds are locally strong in
between the Canary Islands, per recent scatterometer data. Gentle
to moderate trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, broad high pressure over the area
will change little through the period generally maintaining
moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 22N throughout the
week. Moderate to fresh southwest winds east of northeast Florida
to near 74W are ahead of a trough. These winds will expand
eastward to near 67W through Wed, as a weak frontal system moves
across the southeastern U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each
afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola.
$$
Adams
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Mon, 15 Jun 2026 17:44:05 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 151743
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 21W, south of
16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 04N to 10N between 14W and 26W.
An Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 15N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from
03N to 08N and between 32W and 40W.
An Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 18N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is present S of 09N between 51W and 60W.
A Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 18N, moving
westward at near 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen over the
waters behind the wave south of 14N, between the wave and 67W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 06N30W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 05N38W and then resumes from 05N40W
to 05.5N52W. In addition to convection described above in the
TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 20W and 55W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring along and near
the coasts of NE Mexico, Texas, and SW Louisiana with a frontal
boundary inland over Texas and Mexico, as well as multiple surface
troughs analyzed inland. The tightening pressure gradient between
these troughs and a subtropical ridge stemming from the Atlantic
support moderate to fresh SE winds and in the W Gulf, as well as
in the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail
elsehwere. Seas in the Gulf range from 1-4 ft E of 90W to 4-6 ft
W of 90W.
For the forecast, a trough just inland northeastern Mexico will
drift northward during the next couple of days. It is then
forecast to move northeastward along the Texas coast, and possibly
re-emerge over the NW Gulf late Tue or Wed, at which time
environmental conditions may support some development. Expect
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the NW Gulf
during this time. Some of this activity may produce wind gusts to
near gale force. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between a
western Atlantic ridge that stretches west-northwestward to the NE
Gulf and the low pressure will sustain fresh to strong southerly
winds over the western Gulf early Wed through Thu night, and
moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are ongoing in
the far SW Caribbean, near the East Pacific monsoon trough. The
pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and the
Colombia Low supports fresh to strong E winds and rough seas
across much of the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern and NW Caribbean
including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the gradient between broad Atlantic high
pressure and relatively lower pressures south of the Greater
Antilles will sustain a rather extensive area of fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central section of the basin through the
forecast period. The highest of the winds and seas are expected
off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri. Gentle
to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will
become southeast at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough is analyzed from 31N43W to 26N48W, with scattered
moderate convection seen E of the trough axis out to about 37W
and N of 28N. Fresh SW winds are also confirmed by recent
scatterometer data E of the trough to about 40W. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are also ongoing along a surface trough
off the SE US coast. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the
influence of a subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas across much of the basin S of 22N, as
well as N of 22N and E of 35W. NE winds are locally strong in
between the Canary Islands, per recent scatterometer data. Gentle
to moderate trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, broad high pressure over the area
will change little through the period generally maintaining
moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 22N throughout the
week. Moderate to fresh southwest winds east of northeast Florida
to near 74W are ahead of a trough. These winds will expand
eastward to near 67W through Wed, as a weak frontal system moves
across the southeastern U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each
afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola.
$$
Adams
Active Tropical Systems
- Wed, 17 Jun 2026 05:32:01 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 15 Jun 2026 19:13:08 GMT - Mon, 15 Jun 2026 17:32:01 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 151731
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northwestern Gulf of America:
A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development is not expected during the next day or so while the
trough remains inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the
northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and
environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the
formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into
Thursday.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern
and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should
prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days
which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and
river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible
along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday. Additional
information on this system can be found in products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Mon, 15 Jun 2026 16:13:01 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 151612
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 PM EDT MON 15 JUNE 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z JUNE 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-015
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 17/0600Z A. 17/1130,1730Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA SURVEY B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 17/0345Z C. 17/0930Z
D. 27.0N 97.0W D. 28.0N 96.0W
E. 17/0530Z TO 17/0930Z E. 17/1100Z TO 17/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. SYSTEM SURVEY G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A
THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION
INTO SUSPECT AREA FOR 17/1800Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM/KAL/RAR
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf