{"id":439,"date":"2014-06-01T09:12:24","date_gmt":"2014-06-01T15:12:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/trackthetropics.com\/?page_id=439"},"modified":"2023-06-01T16:11:03","modified_gmt":"2023-06-01T21:11:03","slug":"graphical-tropical-weather-outlook","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.trackthetropics.com\/graphical-tropical-weather-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"2023 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>Page Navigation:<\/b> <a href=\"#ATWO\">Atlantic Tropical Outlook<\/a> \/ <a href=\"#TWD\">Tropical Discussion<\/a> \/ <a href=\"#ATS\">Active Tropical Systems<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"#SRFP\">Scheduled Recon Flight Plans<\/a> \/ <a href=\"#MWD\">Marine Weather Discussion<\/a> \/ <a href=\"#ATMS\">Tropical Monthly Summary<\/a><\/p>\n<p><b>2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook<\/b><br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/xgtwo\/two_atl_2d0.png\" alt=\"Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic\" width=\"100%\"><\/p>\n<p><b>7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook<\/b><br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/xgtwo\/two_atl_7d0.png\" alt=\"Atlantic 7 Day GTWO graphic\" width=\"100%\"><\/p>\n<section id=\"ATWO\">\n<h4>Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook<\/h4>\n<\/section>\n<ul><li>Wed, 24 Apr 2024 20:08:01 +0000: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/gtwo.php?basin=atlc\" target=\"_self\" title=\"Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook\">Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook<\/a> - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook<br \/><br>\n 000<br>\n ABNT20 KNHC 242007<br>\n TWOAT <br>\n <br>\n Special Tropical Weather Outlook<br>\n NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br>\n 410 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024<br>\n <br>\n For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:<br>\n <br>\n East-Central Subtropical Atlantic:<br>\n An area of low pressure located about 900 miles northwest of the <br>\n Cabo Verde Islands has been producing a small but persistent area <br>\n of showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center since this <br>\n morning.  However, the low is forecast to move southwestward at 10 <br>\n to 15 mph into an area of stronger upper-level winds tonight and <br>\n tomorrow, and additional development is not expected.<br>\n <br>\n No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for <br>\n this system unless conditions warrant.  Regularly scheduled <br>\n Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2024, and Special <br>\n Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the <br>\n remainder of the off-season.<br>\n * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.<br>\n * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.<br>\n <br>\n $$<br>\n Forecaster Berg\/Brown <br><\/li><\/ul>\n<section id=\"TWD\">\n<h4>Tropical Weather Discussion<\/h4>\n<\/section>\n<ul><li>Thu, 09 May 2024 05:33:12 +0000: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/text\/MIATWDAT.shtml\" target=\"_self\" title=\"NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion\">NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion<\/a> - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)<br \/><br>\n 000<br>\n AXNT20 KNHC 090532<br>\n TWDAT<br>\n <br>\n Tropical Weather Discussion<br>\n NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br>\n 0605 UTC Thu May 9 2024<br>\n <br>\n Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br>\n Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br>\n America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br>\n Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br>\n imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br>\n <br>\n Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through<br>\n 0530 UTC.<br>\n <br>\n ...MONSOON TROUGH\/ITCZ...<br>\n <br>\n The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 07N10W. The ITCZ <br>\n continues from that point to 01N50W. Scattered showers are noted<br>\n along the ITCZ mainly W of 25W.<br>\n <br>\n ...GULF OF MEXICO...<br>\n <br>\n The Bermuda subtropical ridge extends west-southwestward across<br>\n central Florida and to the north-central Gulf. This is producing <br>\n light to gentle SE winds in the eastern Gulf E of 87W and <br>\n moderate to fresh SE winds over the rest of the basin. Seas are 2<br>\n to 4 ft E of 88W, and 4 to 6 west of 88W. No significant <br>\n convection is occurring in the basin, but haze due to agricultural<br>\n fires in SE Mexico continues to restrict visibility across the <br>\n western Gulf. <br>\n <br>\n For the forecast, fresh to locally strong SE winds will prevail <br>\n across much of the Gulf through Thu night ahead of a cold front. <br>\n The front will move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf <br>\n Fri and will move across most of the basin through Fri night. The <br>\n front will then slow down and weaken further as extends from <br>\n South Florida to Veracruz, Mexico, by late Sat. Moderate to <br>\n locally fresh winds will follow the front through Sat night. Haze <br>\n due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico persists in the <br>\n western Gulf. Patchy fog is possible along the northern Gulf coast<br>\n overnight and into the early morning hours today.<br>\n <br>\n ...CARIBBEAN SEA...<br>\n <br>\n A persistent broad mid to upper-level trough is over the western <br>\n Atlantic, and stretches southwestward across the NW Caribbean. <br>\n The upper trough will continue to move farther northeast of the <br>\n area through Thu night, with atmospheric conditions stabilizing in<br>\n its wake. Abundant tropical moisture remains prevalent just east <br>\n of the NE Caribbean. Persistent daily rainfall across the Greater<br>\n Antilles and NE Caribbean Islands for the past several days has <br>\n left soils at or near saturation, and river levels high across <br>\n this region. Please see local weather advisories for specific <br>\n information on hazardous local conditions.<br>\n <br>\n The Bermuda ridge is centered across the central Atlantic and<br>\n extends its ridge westward to central Florida. This pattern is <br>\n producing moderate to fresh trades over the south-central <br>\n Caribbean, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds <br>\n prevail across the Gulf of Honduras, where seas have built to 4 <br>\n to 6 ft. The remainder of the basin is under gentle to moderate <br>\n trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft. <br>\n <br>\n For the forecast, high pressure centered SE of Bermuda will<br>\n continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-<br>\n central and SE Caribbean into the start of next week. Meanwhile, <br>\n expect pulses of fresh to strong E winds at night across the Gulf<br>\n of Honduras through the weekend due to the pressure gradient <br>\n between the high pressure and lower pressure over the western <br>\n Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist <br>\n elsewhere.<br>\n <br>\n ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br>\n <br>\n The western Atlantic continues to be dominated by a broad ridge <br>\n anchored on a weak high center of 1021 mb, analyzed near 28N51W. A<br>\n pair of troughs are located along 58W and 65W. Scattered showers<br>\n are noted along the trough near 58W, with moderate to fresh winds<br>\n noted east of the trough between 53W-58W. To the east, the <br>\n remnants of a front are analyzed as a trough, extending from <br>\n 31N23W to 22N30W. <br>\n <br>\n Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin N of<br>\n 20N, while moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail S of 20N.<br>\n Rough seas prevail in the periphery of the high pressure center<br>\n mainly N of 18N between 25W-60W, and moderate seas prevail <br>\n elsewhere.<br>\n <br>\n For the forecast west of 55W, for most of the basin, winds will <br>\n diminish tonight into Thu as the high pressure shifts E. However, <br>\n as a cold front approaches the US East Coast, fresh to strong <br>\n winds will develop off northeast Florida tonight through Fri <br>\n night. The front will move across Florida late Fri night through <br>\n Sat, bringing moderate to fresh winds behind it. The front will <br>\n weaken late in the weekend as it moves east of 65W. <br>\n <br>\n $$<br>\n ERA<br><\/li><\/ul>\n<section id=\"ATS\">\n<h4>Active Tropical Systems<\/h4>\n<\/section>\n<ul><li>Wed, 24 Apr 2024 01:42:49 +0000: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/\" target=\"_self\" title=\"The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.\">The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.<\/a> - NHC Atlantic<br \/>The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.<\/li><\/ul>\n<section id=\"SRFP\">\n<h4>Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans<\/h4>\n<\/section>\n<ul><li>Mon, 01 Apr 2024 14:54:44 +0000: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/text\/MIAREPRPD.shtml\" target=\"_self\" title=\"Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day\">Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day<\/a> - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day<br \/><pre> \n 000\n NOUS42 KNHC 011454\n REPRPD\n WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS\n CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.\n 1100 AM EDT MON 01 APRIL 2024\n SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)\n          VALID 02\/1100Z TO 03\/1100Z APRIL 2024\n          WSPOD NUMBER.....23-123\n \n I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS\n     1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.\n     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.\n \n NOTE:  THIS IS THE LAST WSPOD OF THE SEASON UNLESS CONDITIONS\n        DICTATE OTHERWISE.\n \n $$\n SEF\n \n NNNN\n <\/pre><\/li><\/ul>\n<section id=\"MWD\">\n<h4>Marine Weather Discussion<\/h4>\n<\/section>\n<ul><li>Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/text\/MIAMIMATS.shtml\" target=\"_self\" title=\"NHC Marine Weather Discussion\">NHC Marine Weather Discussion<\/a> - NHC Marine Weather Discussion<br \/><br>\n 000<br>\n AGXX40 KNHC 171522<br>\n MIMATS<br>\n <br>\n Marine Weather Discussion<br>\n NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br>\n 1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021<br>\n <br>\n Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,<br>\n and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W<br>\n and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas<br>\n <br>\n This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National<br>\n Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical<br>\n Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.<br>\n <br>\n ...GULF OF MEXICO...<br>\n <br>\n High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to<br>\n the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the<br>\n week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the<br>\n basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late<br>\n Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern<br>\n Plains.  <br>\n <br>\n ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN<br>\n 55W AND 64W...<br>\n <br>\n A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,<br>\n diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds<br>\n will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high<br>\n pressure builds across the western Atlantic.  <br>\n <br>\n ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...<br>\n <br>\n A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas<br>\n will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will<br>\n drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high <br>\n pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support<br>\n an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W<br>\n with  seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.  <br>\n <br>\n $$<br>\n <br>\n .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be<br>\n coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by<br>\n telephone:<br>\n <br>\n .GULF OF MEXICO...<br>\n      None.<br>\n <br>\n .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN<br>\n 55W AND 64W...<br>\n      None.<br>\n <br>\n .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...<br>\n      None.<br>\n <br>\n $$<br>\n <br>\n *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:<br>\n http:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF<br>\n <br>\n Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National<br>\n Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:<br>\n http:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/marine\/grids.php<br>\n <br>\n For additional information, please visit:<br>\n http:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/marine<br>\n <br>\n $$<br>\n <br>\n .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.<br><\/li><\/ul>\n<section id=\"ATMS\">\n<h4>Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary<\/h4>\n<\/section>\n<ul><li>Fri, 01 Dec 2023 12:58:54 +0000: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/text\/MIATWSAT.shtml\" target=\"_self\" title=\"Atlantic\">Atlantic<\/a> - Atlantic<br \/><br>\n 000<br>\n ABNT30 KNHC 011258<br>\n TWSAT <br>\n <br>\n Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br>\n NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br>\n 800 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023<br>\n <br>\n For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:<br>\n <br>\n No tropical cyclones formed in the Atlantic basin in the month of <br>\n November.  Based on a 30-year climatology (1991-2020), a tropical <br>\n storm forms in November once every year or two, and a hurricane <br>\n forms once every two years.  A disturbance (Potential Tropical <br>\n Cyclone Twenty-Two) caused heavy rains and flooding across portions <br>\n of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Hispaniola during the middle part of <br>\n the month, but the system did not become a tropical cyclone.<br>\n <br>\n Overall, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season had above-normal <br>\n activity in terms of the number of named storms but a normal amount <br>\n of activity in terms of the number of hurricanes and major <br>\n hurricanes.  In 2023, 20 storms of at least tropical storm strength <br>\n formed, of which 7 became hurricanes and 3 became major hurricanes <br>\n (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). <br>\n This compares to the long-term (1991-2020) averages of 14 named <br>\n storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.  In terms of <br>\n Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the strength and <br>\n duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the basin <br>\n in 2023 was about 20 percent above average compared to the long-term <br>\n (1991-2020) mean.<br>\n <br>\n Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the <br>\n National Hurricane Center website at<br>\n www.hurricanes.gov\/data\/tcr\/index.php?season=2023&amp;basin=atl<br>\n <br>\n Summary Table<br>\n <br>\n Name                      Dates              Max Wind (mph)<br>\n -----------------------------------------------------------<br>\n Unnamed STS             16-17 Jan                 70*<br>\n TS Arlene                 1-3 Jun                 40*<br>\n TS Bret                 19-24 Jun                 70*<br>\n TS Cindy                22-26 Jun                 60*<br>\n H  Don                  14-24 Jul                 75*<br>\n TS Emily                20-21 Aug                 50*<br>\n MH Franklin         20 Aug- 1 Sep                150<br>\n TS Gert                 19- 4 Sep                 60*<br>\n TS Harold               21-23 Aug                 50<br>\n MH Idalia               26-31 Aug                130<br>\n TS Jose             29 Aug- 1 Sep                 60<br>\n TS Katia                 1- 4 Sep                 60<br>\n MH Lee                   5-16 Sep                165<br>\n H  Margot                7-17 Sep                 90<br>\n H  Nigel                15-22 Sep                100<br>\n TS Ophelia              22-24 Sep                 70<br>\n TS Philippe         23 Sep- 6 Oct                 50<br>\n TS Rina             28 Sep- 1 Oct                 50*<br>\n TS Sean                 11-15 Oct                 45<br>\n H  Tammy                18-29 Oct                105<br>\n TD Twenty-One           23-24 Oct                 30<br>\n -----------------------------------------------------------     <br>\n <br>\n * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.<br>\n <br>\n $$<br>\n Hurricane Specialist Unit<br>\n <br><\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook \/ Tropical Discussion \/ Active Tropical Systems Scheduled Recon Flight Plans \/ Marine Weather Discussion \/ Tropical Monthly Summary<\/p>\n<p>2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook <\/p>\n<p>7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook <\/p>\n<p> Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook Wed, 24 Apr 2024 20:08:01 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook &#8211; Atlantic Tropical [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.trackthetropics.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/439"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.trackthetropics.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.trackthetropics.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.trackthetropics.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.trackthetropics.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=439"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.trackthetropics.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/439\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9758,"href":"https:\/\/www.trackthetropics.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/439\/revisions\/9758"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.trackthetropics.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=439"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}