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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2024 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Tropical Storm Arlene – 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Latest Surface Plot
Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Tropical Tidbits Storm Page
Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities
Microwave Imagery
Microwave Imagery
NOAA NESDIS Floaters
Floater
Floater
Other Floaters:
TropicalTidbits - WeatherNerds - GOES16
Average Days For System To Reach U.S.Average Days For System To Reach U.S.
Windshear Around Storm
Windshear
Dry Air/ Water Vapor Around Storm
Dry Air
Water Temps around Storm
Water Temps
Past Track History Past Track History
CyclonicWX Storm Page
Top Analog Tracks Top Analog Tracks
WeatherNerds.org Floaters
Other Floater Sites:
TropicalTidbits - NRL Floaters - CyclonicWx - RAMMB Sat - RAMMB Model Data - RAMMB Wind Products

Intensity Forecasts Intensity Forecasts Model Tracks Model Tracks Model Tracks Model Tracks GFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks GFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks
EURO Ensemble Tracks EURO/GFS Ensembles from WeatherNerds
EPS Ensemble Tracks
NHC Public Advisory on Arlene
  • Sat, 18 Nov 2023 02:38:35 +0000: Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number 6 - Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number 6

    000
    WTNT32 KNHC 180238
    TCPAT2

    BULLETIN
    Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number 6
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023
    1000 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

    ...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
    MUDSLIDES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA THIS WEEKEND...
    ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY AS ALL WATCHES HAVE BEEN
    DISCONTINUED AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED...


    SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...20.0N 76.5W
    ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM NE OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
    ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    The Tropical Storm Watch for Haiti has been discontinued.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
    issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
    latitude 20.0 North, longitude 76.5 West. The system is moving
    toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and a faster
    northeastward motion is expected overnight. On the forecast track,
    the disturbance is expected to move across southeastern Cuba during
    the next few hours.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
    The disturbance appears unlikely to become a tropical cyclone before
    it merges with a frontal system later this weekend.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found
    in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
    WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at
    hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

    RAINFALL: This disturbance is expected to produce additional total
    rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 14 inches across
    portions of southeastern Cuba and southern Hispaniola through
    Sunday. These rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with
    mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

    The system is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of
    rainfall across Jamaica, the southeastern Bahamas, as well as the
    Turks and Caicos Islands. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding
    in urban areas.

    SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect
    portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba through Saturday.
    These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
    current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
    office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
    Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
    found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
    under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
    ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    $$
    Forecaster Reinhart

NHC Forecast Advisory on Arlene
  • Sat, 18 Nov 2023 02:37:04 +0000: Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone TWENTY-TWO For... - Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone TWENTY-TWO Forecast/Advisory Number 6 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL222023 0300 UTC SAT NOV 18 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL Cyclone WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/Advisory...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 76.5W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 76.5W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 77.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 76.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART

    000
    WTNT22 KNHC 180236
    TCMAT2

    POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222023
    0300 UTC SAT NOV 18 2023

    NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
    LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
    CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
    MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

    POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 76.5W AT 18/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 19 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 76.5W AT 18/0300Z
    AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 77.2W

    FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 76.5W

    THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
    FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


    $$
    FORECASTER REINHART


NHC Discussion on Arlene
  • Sat, 18 Nov 2023 02:39:35 +0000: Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number 6 - Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number 6

    000
    WTNT42 KNHC 180239
    TCDAT2

    Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number 6
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023
    1000 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

    The broad disturbance has failed to become better organized today.
    The associated convection remains displaced well to the east of the
    surface trough axis by strong southwesterly shear. The earlier
    aircraft reconnaissance data showed the disturbance was only
    producing peak winds of 25-30 kt. Given its lack of a well-defined
    surface center, poor convective organization, and the continued
    hostile environmental conditions it faces, this system is no longer
    expected to become a tropical cyclone. Additionally, the risk of
    sustained tropical-storm-force winds on land has greatly diminished,
    and all tropical storm watches have been discontinued. Therefore,
    this will be the final NHC advisory on this system.

    The remnants of this disturbance are expected to accelerate
    northeastward ahead of a shortwave trough and merge with a frontal
    system over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean later this weekend.
    Although tropical cyclone formation is not expected, there is high
    confidence that heavy rainfall and flooding will remain a serious
    threat across southeastern Cuba and Hispaniola through Sunday.
    Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts
    of 14 inches, are expected across portions of these areas, which is
    likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
    issued by your national meteorological service. Additional
    information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
    issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
    NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
    ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


    KEY MESSAGES:

    1. Heavy rains from this disturbance will impact portions of
    southeastern Cuba and southern Hispaniola through Sunday. This
    rainfall is likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides
    in areas of higher terrain. Lighter amounts across Jamaica, the
    southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands may lead to
    flash flooding in urban areas.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 18/0300Z 20.0N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
    12H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Reinhart

2 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
7 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 7 Day GTWO graphic

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