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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2021 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

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Tropical Storm Zeta – 2020 Hurricane Season

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Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
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NHC Public Advisory on Zeta
  • Wed, 22 Sep 2021 21:01:40 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 1...Corrected - Atlantic Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 1...Corrected

    000
    WTNT33 KNHC 222100 CCA
    TCPAT3

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 1...Corrected
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
    500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

    Corrected to include a location reference point for the system.

    ...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC..
    ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...10.1N 33.9W
    ABOUT 2030 MI...3265 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen
    was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 33.9 West. The
    depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this
    motion is expected to continue for the next day or so followed by a
    gradual turn to the west-northwest by Friday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Strengthening is forecast over the next several days. The
    depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by tomorrow, and
    could be near hurricane intensity by the weekend.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin

NHC Forecast Advisory on Zeta
  • Wed, 22 Sep 2021 20:49:41 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN Forecast/Adv... - Atlantic Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN Forecast/Advisory Number 1 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 33.9W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 33.9W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 33.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 10.1N 36.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 10.5N 38.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 11.0N 41.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 11.7N 43.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 12.4N 45.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 13.0N 46.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 14.2N 49.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 16.0N 52.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 33.9W NEXT Advisory AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

    000
    WTNT23 KNHC 222049
    TCMAT3

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021
    2100 UTC WED SEP 22 2021

    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 33.9W AT 22/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 33.9W AT 22/2100Z
    AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 33.2W

    FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 10.1N 36.0W
    MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
    34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

    FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 10.5N 38.6W
    MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
    34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

    FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 11.0N 41.1W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

    FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 11.7N 43.4W
    MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
    34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 12.4N 45.3W
    MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
    34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 13.0N 46.8W
    MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
    34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 14.2N 49.5W
    MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

    OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 16.0N 52.5W
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 33.9W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

    $$
    FORECASTER PAPIN


NHC Discussion on Zeta
  • Wed, 22 Sep 2021 20:54:37 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 1 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 1

    000
    WTNT43 KNHC 222054
    TCDAT3

    Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 1
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
    500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

    The tropical wave that NHC has been monitoring over the last several
    days has gradually become better organized. The satellite structure
    in particular is quite impressive for a tropical depression, with
    both the 1800 UTC subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB
    at T2.5/35 kt. This bigger question, however, was if the system
    possessed a well-defined closed earth-relative circulation. An
    ASCAT-C pass from earlier this morning hinted that the circulation
    was becoming better defined, with the development of westerly
    low-level winds to the south of the convective shield. This westerly
    low-level flow is also confirmed by atmospheric motion vectors
    (AMVs) available from the GOES-16 meso domain over the system. While
    the low-level circulation may still be somewhat broad, it now
    appears to be well-defined enough to mark the formation of a
    tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 30-kt, in
    agreement with peak wind retrievals of 28-30 kt by the earlier
    scatterometer data.

    The initial motion is estimated to be at 270/13 kt, though this is
    somewhat uncertain given that the center has only recently formed.
    An expansive mid-level ridge is located to the north and west of
    the cyclone, which should maintain its heading toward the west,
    though with a gradual gain in latitude as the system approaches
    the western extent of the ridge by day 5. The track guidance is in
    excellent agreement on this track evolution for the first three
    days, with just a bit more spread in the guidance thereafter. The
    ECMWF and its ensemble mean towards the end of the forecast is on
    the left side of the guidance envelope, while the GFS and HWRF
    models are currently on the right side. For the first NHC track
    forecast, I have elected to stay close to the track consensus aids,
    taking a blend of the HCCA and TCVN aids which are near the
    middle of the guidance envelope.

    The environment ahead of the tropical depression appears quite
    favorable for intensification. Vertical wind shear is forecast by
    both the ECWMF- and GFS-based SHIPS guidance to stay at or under 10
    kt for the next 3-5 days as the storm traverses warm 28-29 C sea
    surface temperatures. Most of the guidance responds to this
    environment by indicating strengthening, and the NHC intensity
    guidance follows suit, showing a steady increase in intensity
    throughout the forecast period. While it might take a bit of time
    for the formative low-level circulation to become vertically aligned
    with the mid-level center, once that occurs, it is possible a period
    of rapid intensification could occur during the five day forecast.
    The forecast intensity by 120 hours (100 kt) is on the higher end of
    the guidance envelope, but not as high as the latest HWRF or HAFS-B
    forecasts.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 22/2100Z 10.1N 33.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
    12H 23/0600Z 10.1N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
    24H 23/1800Z 10.5N 38.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
    36H 24/0600Z 11.0N 41.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
    48H 24/1800Z 11.7N 43.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
    60H 25/0600Z 12.4N 45.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
    72H 25/1800Z 13.0N 46.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
    96H 26/1800Z 14.2N 49.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
    120H 27/1800Z 16.0N 52.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Papin

2 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
5 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

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