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- Mon, 30 Sep 2024 14:53:30 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaac Advisory Number 19 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaac Advisory Number 19
000
WTNT35 KNHC 301453
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaac Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024
300 PM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024
...ISAAC BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.8N 29.1W
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaac
was located near latitude 44.8 North, longitude 29.1 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 17
mph (28 km/h) and a turn to the northeast is expected with a similar
forward motion for the next several days.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next
several days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will affect the Azores over the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header
FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2. Additional information on this system can also be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header
FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast/.
$$
Forecaster Papin
- Mon, 30 Sep 2024 14:52:53 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone ISAAC Forecast/Advi... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone ISAAC Forecast/Advisory Number 19 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 POST-TROPICAL Cyclone CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 29.1W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 140SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 360SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 29.1W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.6N 30.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 46.0N 26.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 47.6N 23.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...160NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 49.3N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 50.6N 20.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 52.0N 19.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 54.0N 17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.8N 29.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ISAAC. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR. $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
931
WTNT25 KNHC 301452
TCMAT5
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024
1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2024
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 29.1W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 360SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 29.1W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.6N 30.0W
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 46.0N 26.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 47.6N 23.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...160NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 49.3N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 0SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 50.6N 20.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 52.0N 19.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 54.0N 17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.8N 29.1W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON ISAAC. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER
FQNT50 LFPW. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
- Mon, 30 Sep 2024 14:54:57 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaac Discussion Number 19 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaac Discussion Number 19
000
WTNT45 KNHC 301454
TCDAT5
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaac Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024
300 PM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024
Geostationary satellite data this morning indicates that Isaac has
completed its transition to a Post-Tropical Extratropical Low and
this will be the last NHC advisory. The remaining moderate-to-deep
convection has sheared off to the northeast as stable stratocumulus
clouds have fully infiltrated its low-level circulation from the
west. The initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt blending the
latest subjective and objective measurements.
The post-tropical cyclone is still moving east-northeastward at
about 065/15 kt. A subtle turn to the northeast is still expected
over the next couple of days as the cyclone remains embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. The guidance has shifted a bit east of the
prior forecast track, partially a reflection of the more eastward
initial position, and the NHC track was nudged in that direction.
Over the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to slowly weaken,
lacking baroclinic support for much non-tropical development. The
low should ultimately dissipate in the far North Atlantic to the
west of Ireland before the end of the week.
Additional information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France and the the UK Met
Office. Links to each product are provided below:
Meteo France: WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.
UK Met Office: WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast/.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 44.8N 29.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 01/0000Z 46.0N 26.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 01/1200Z 47.6N 23.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 02/0000Z 49.3N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/1200Z 50.6N 20.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 03/0000Z 52.0N 19.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 03/1200Z 54.0N 17.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin