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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2021 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
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Peter – 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Latest Surface Plot
Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Tropical Tidbits Storm Page
Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities
NOAA NESDIS Floaters
Floater
Floater
Other Floaters:
TropicalTidbits - WeatherNerds - GOES16
Surface Wind Field Surface Wind Field Cumulative Wind History Cumulative Wind History
Windfield
Windfield
Microwave Imagery
Microwave Imagery
Top Analog Tracks Top Analog Tracks
Key Messages Key Messages
WeatherNerds.org Floaters
Other Floater Sites:
TropicalTidbits - NRL Floaters - CyclonicWx - RAMMB Sat - RAMMB Model Data - RAMMB Wind Products

Intensity Forecasts Intensity Forecasts Model Tracks Model Tracks Model Tracks Model Tracks GFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks GFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks
EURO Ensemble Tracks EURO/GFS Ensembles from WeatherNerds
EPS Ensemble Tracks
NHC Public Advisory on Peter
  • Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:35:12 +0000: Atlantic Remnants Of Peter Advisory Number 18 - Atlantic Remnants Of Peter Advisory Number 18

    000
    WTNT31 KNHC 230235
    TCPAT1

    BULLETIN
    Remnants Of Peter Advisory Number 18
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
    1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

    ...DEPRESSION PETERS OUT...
    ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON PETER...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...22.1N 67.0W
    ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Peter were located near
    latitude 22.1 North, longitude 67.0 West. The remnants are moving
    toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). The remnants are
    expected to move generally northward over the next couple of days.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    SURF: Swells generated by Peter will affect the Virgin Islands,
    Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and portions of the Bahamas during the
    next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening
    surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
    local weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
    Center on this system. Additional information on the remnants of
    Peter can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
    Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
    KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    $$
    Forecaster Brown

NHC Forecast Advisory on Peter
  • Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:34:42 +0000: Atlantic Remnants of PETER Forecast/Advisory Numbe... - Atlantic Remnants of PETER Forecast/Advisory Number 18 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 67.0W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 67.0W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 66.9W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 67.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF PETER CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

    018
    WTNT21 KNHC 230234
    TCMAT1

    REMNANTS OF PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021
    0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021

    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

    REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 67.0W AT 23/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 67.0W AT 23/0300Z
    AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 66.9W

    FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 67.0W

    THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF
    PETER CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
    WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01
    KWBC.

    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN



NHC Discussion on Peter
  • Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:37:12 +0000: Atlantic Remnants Of Peter Discussion Number 18 - Atlantic Remnants Of Peter Discussion Number 18

    000
    WTNT41 KNHC 230237
    TCDAT1

    Remnants Of Peter Discussion Number 18
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
    1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

    Although a low-level swirl can still be seen in infrared satellite
    imagery, this feature has continued to lose definition. A recently
    arriving partial ASCAT-A overpass shows that the circulation has
    become more elongated, and Peter lacks a well-defined center. In
    addition, the system has not produced any organized deep convection
    in quite some time. The cloudiness and convective activity that has
    been occuring over the western Atlantic has been located along a
    trough axis well northeast of the decaying circulation center. As a
    result, Peter no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone,
    and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. The initial
    intensity is set at 25 kt in accordance with the ASCAT data. The
    remnants of Peter are expected to remain within an area of strong
    upper-level westerly winds, and further weakening should occur over
    the next day or two.

    The system has been moving slowly north-northwestward or 335/4 kt.
    A weakness in the low-level ridge should allow the remnants to turn
    northward tomorrow, and this general motion should continue through
    the end of the week.

    This is the last NHC advisory on this system. Additional information
    on the remnants of Peter can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
    by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
    header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
    ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 23/0300Z 22.1N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS
    12H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Brown

2 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
5 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

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