Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

Tracking Emily – 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Emily

Mon, 07 Oct 2024 14:41:25 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk Advisory Number 33 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk Advisory Number 33

000
WTNT32 KNHC 071441
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
300 PM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024

...KIRK BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...
...STILL CAUSING LARGE SWELLS AND RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE U.S.
EAST COAST...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.7N 38.4W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk
was located near latitude 41.7 North, longitude 38.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46
km/h). An even faster east-northeastward motion is expected during
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although gradual weakening is expected, Kirk is forecast to
remain a large and strong extratropical low during the next couple
of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310
miles (500 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
the east coast of the United States, portions of Atlantic Canada,
and the Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Hagen

NHC Forecast Advisory on Emily

Mon, 07 Oct 2024 14:40:55 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone KIRK Forecast/Advis... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone KIRK Forecast/Advisory Number 33 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 POST-TROPICAL Cyclone CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 38.4W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 50 KT.......140NE 150SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT.......250NE 270SE 210SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 540SE 600SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 38.4W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 39.9W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 43.1N 33.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 130SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 270SE 220SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 43.5N 25.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 260SE 230SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 43.7N 16.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 230SE 230SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 45.4N 6.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 180SE 190SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 48.5N 4.5E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.7N 38.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

000
WTNT22 KNHC 071440
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 38.4W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
50 KT.......140NE 150SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT.......250NE 270SE 210SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 540SE 600SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 38.4W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 39.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 43.1N 33.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 270SE 220SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 43.5N 25.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 260SE 230SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 43.7N 16.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 230SE 230SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 45.4N 6.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 180SE 190SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 48.5N 4.5E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.7N 38.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

NHC Discussion on Emily

Mon, 07 Oct 2024 14:41:56 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk Discussion Number 33 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk Discussion Number 33

365
WTNT42 KNHC 071441
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
300 PM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024

Satellite imagery and model analyses indicate that Kirk has
completed its transition to an extratropical cyclone. Therefore,
this will be the final NHC advisory. Kirk is expected to remain a
large and powerful extratropical cyclone over the next couple of
days as it moves east-northeastward across the northeastern Atlantic
Ocean toward western Europe. Gradual weakening is forecast, and the
intensity forecast best matches the GFS and ECMWF global models.
Very little change has been made to the previous NHC track forecast.
The track forecast is near the consensus models.

Kirk will be passing north of the Azores over the next 24 hours.
Large breaking waves are likely along portions of the coasts of the
Azores, along with gusty winds. Swells from Kirk may continue to
induce a high rip current risk along portions of the U.S. East
Coast for another day or so. These swells will affect Bermuda,
Atlantic Canada and the Azores for a few more days. Kirk will move
over western Europe by late Wednesday.

Future information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 41.7N 38.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 08/0000Z 43.1N 33.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 08/1200Z 43.5N 25.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 09/0000Z 43.7N 16.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/1200Z 45.4N 6.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 10/0000Z 48.5N 4.5E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen

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