Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

Elsa – 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Elsa

Mon, 30 Sep 2024 14:53:30 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaac Advisory Number 19 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaac Advisory Number 19

000
WTNT35 KNHC 301453
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaac Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024
300 PM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024

...ISAAC BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.8N 29.1W
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaac
was located near latitude 44.8 North, longitude 29.1 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 17
mph (28 km/h) and a turn to the northeast is expected with a similar
forward motion for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next
several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will affect the Azores over the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header
FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2. Additional information on this system can also be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header
FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast/.

$$
Forecaster Papin

NHC Forecast Advisory on Elsa

Mon, 30 Sep 2024 14:52:53 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone ISAAC Forecast/Advi... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone ISAAC Forecast/Advisory Number 19 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 POST-TROPICAL Cyclone CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 29.1W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 140SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 360SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 29.1W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.6N 30.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 46.0N 26.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 47.6N 23.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...160NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 49.3N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 50.6N 20.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 52.0N 19.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 54.0N 17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.8N 29.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ISAAC. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR. $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

931
WTNT25 KNHC 301452
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024
1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2024

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 29.1W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 360SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 29.1W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.6N 30.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 46.0N 26.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 47.6N 23.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...160NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 49.3N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 50.6N 20.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 52.0N 19.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 54.0N 17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.8N 29.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON ISAAC. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER
FQNT50 LFPW. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

NHC Discussion on Elsa

Mon, 30 Sep 2024 14:54:57 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaac Discussion Number 19 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaac Discussion Number 19

000
WTNT45 KNHC 301454
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaac Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024
300 PM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024

Geostationary satellite data this morning indicates that Isaac has
completed its transition to a Post-Tropical Extratropical Low and
this will be the last NHC advisory. The remaining moderate-to-deep
convection has sheared off to the northeast as stable stratocumulus
clouds have fully infiltrated its low-level circulation from the
west. The initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt blending the
latest subjective and objective measurements.

The post-tropical cyclone is still moving east-northeastward at
about 065/15 kt. A subtle turn to the northeast is still expected
over the next couple of days as the cyclone remains embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. The guidance has shifted a bit east of the
prior forecast track, partially a reflection of the more eastward
initial position, and the NHC track was nudged in that direction.
Over the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to slowly weaken,
lacking baroclinic support for much non-tropical development. The
low should ultimately dissipate in the far North Atlantic to the
west of Ireland before the end of the week.

Additional information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France and the the UK Met
Office. Links to each product are provided below:

Meteo France: WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.

UK Met Office: WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast/.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 44.8N 29.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 01/0000Z 46.0N 26.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 01/1200Z 47.6N 23.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 02/0000Z 49.3N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/1200Z 50.6N 20.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 03/0000Z 52.0N 19.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 03/1200Z 54.0N 17.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

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