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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2021 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

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Beta – 2020 Hurricane Season

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ATTENTION: The NHC has issued it's last advisory on Beta as of 9-22-2020. All Graphics and Information on this page will eventually cease to update. Advisories are now being handled by the WPC.

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NHC Public Advisory on Beta
  • Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:38:13 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Rose Advisory Number 16 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Rose Advisory Number 16

    000
    WTNT32 KNHC 230238
    TCPAT2

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Depression Rose Advisory Number 16
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
    1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

    ...ROSE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY THURSDAY...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...24.6N 40.9W
    ABOUT 1245 MI...2000 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rose
    was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 40.9 West. The
    depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17
    km/h). A northwestward motion is expected tonight, with a turn
    toward the north forecast by Thursday night. A motion toward the
    northeast is expected on Friday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
    Rose is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by
    early Thursday.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Brown

NHC Forecast Advisory on Beta
  • Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:38:13 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression ROSE Forecast/Advisor... - Atlantic Tropical Depression ROSE Forecast/Advisory Number 16 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 40.9W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 40.9W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 40.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.7N 41.9W...Post-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.2N 42.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.4N 41.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.2N 33.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 40.9W NEXT Advisory AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

    000
    WTNT22 KNHC 230238
    TCMAT2

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021
    0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021

    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 40.9W AT 23/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 40.9W AT 23/0300Z
    AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 40.6W

    FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.7N 41.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.2N 42.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.4N 41.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.2N 33.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 40.9W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN


NHC Discussion on Beta
  • Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:38:42 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 16 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 16

    000
    WTNT42 KNHC 230238
    TCDAT2

    Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 16
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
    1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

    Rose continues to be devoid of deep convection as shear and dry
    mid-level air has taken their toll on the system. Although Rose
    appears to be well on its way to post-tropical cyclone status, it
    seems prudent to maintain advisories a little longer since the
    system is over warm waters and some convection could return
    overnight. If that does not occur, Rose is likely to become
    a remnant low by tomorrow morning, and that is what is indicated in
    the official forecast. The remnant low is forecast to continue to
    gradually spin down over the next day or two. The GFS and ECMWF
    suggest that some convection could re-develop in the 48-96 h time
    period when the remnants of Rose interact with an upper-level
    trough, but the NHC forecast once again does not call for
    re-generation at that time. In fact, the latest forecast calls for
    the system to become an open trough by 96 h, which is supported by
    the GFS.

    Rose has continued to move west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. The
    cyclone should turn northwestward very soon as it moves around the
    western flank of a low- to mid-level ridge. Rose or its remnants
    should then turn northward, northeastward, and then eventually
    east-northeastward as a deep-layer trough digs southward over the
    east-central Atlantic. The latest guidance envelope has again
    shifted westward in the short term, and the updated NHC track
    forecast has been adjusted accordingly. After 36 h, the official
    forecast lies near the previous advisory and is close to the
    various consensus aids.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 23/0300Z 24.6N 40.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
    12H 23/1200Z 25.7N 41.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    24H 24/0000Z 27.2N 42.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    36H 24/1200Z 28.4N 41.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    48H 25/0000Z 29.0N 39.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    60H 25/1200Z 29.5N 36.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    72H 26/0000Z 30.2N 33.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Brown

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